1
|
Ali AE, Gardner AM, Shugart HH, Walter JA. Opposing Patterns of Spatial Synchrony in Lyme Disease Incidence. ECOHEALTH 2024; 21:46-55. [PMID: 38704455 PMCID: PMC11127889 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01677-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/06/2024]
Abstract
Incidence of Lyme disease, a tick-borne illness prevalent in the US, is increasing in endemic regions and regions with no previous history of the disease, significantly impacting public health. We examined space-time patterns of Lyme disease incidence and the influence of ecological and social factors on spatial synchrony, i.e., correlated incidence fluctuations across US counties. Specifically, we addressed these questions: Does Lyme disease incidence exhibit spatial synchrony? If so, what geographic patterns does Lyme disease synchrony exhibit? Are geographic patterns of disease synchrony related to weather, land cover, access to health care, or tick-borne disease awareness? How do effects of these variables on Lyme disease synchrony differ geographically? We used network analysis and matrix regression to examine geographical patterns of Lyme disease synchrony and their potential mechanisms in 399 counties in the eastern and Midwestern US. We found two distinct regions of synchrony in Northeast and upper Midwest regions exhibiting opposing temporal fluctuations in incidence. Spatial patterns of Lyme disease synchrony were partly explained by land cover, weather, poverty, and awareness of tick-borne illness, with significant predictive variables changing regionally. However, the two regions may have become more synchronous over time, potentially leading to higher-amplitude nation-wide fluctuations in disease incidence.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Asad E Ali
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA.
- Alabama College of Osteopathic Medicine, 445 Health Sciences Boulevard, Dothan, AL, 36303, USA.
| | - Allison M Gardner
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, 5722 Deering Hall, Orono, ME, 04469, USA
| | - Herman H Shugart
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Jonathan A Walter
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
- Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Abstract
Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention. Here, we present a widely applicable analytical protocol that allows us to account for both season and geographic context-specific density dependence to better elucidate the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic sources of population synchrony, including the renowned Moran effect. We exemplify our protocol by analyzing time series of seasonal (spring and fall) abundance estimates of cyclic rodent populations, revealing that season-specific density dependence is a major component of population synchrony. By accounting for deterministic sources of synchrony (in particular season-specific density dependence), we are able to identify stochastic components. These stochastic components include mild winter weather events, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate warming in boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Interestingly, these weather effects act both directly and delayed on the vole populations, thus enhancing the Moran effect. Our study demonstrates how different drivers of population synchrony, presently altered by climate warming, can be disentangled based on seasonally sampled population time-series data and adequate population models.
Collapse
|
3
|
Sarremejane R, Stubbington R, England J, Sefton CEM, Eastman M, Parry S, Ruhi A. Drought effects on invertebrate metapopulation dynamics and quasi-extinction risk in an intermittent river network. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4024-4039. [PMID: 34032337 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Ecological communities can remain stable in the face of disturbance if their constituent species have different resistance and resilience strategies. In turn, local stability scales up regionally if heterogeneous landscapes maintain spatial asynchrony across discrete populations-but not if large-scale stressors synchronize environmental conditions and biological responses. Here, we hypothesized that droughts could drastically decrease the stability of invertebrate metapopulations both by filtering out poorly adapted species locally, and by synchronizing their dynamics across a river network. We tested this hypothesis via multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models on spatially replicated, long-term data describing aquatic invertebrate communities and hydrological conditions in a set of temperate, lowland streams subject to seasonal and supraseasonal drying events. This quantitative approach allowed us to assess the influence of local (flow magnitude) and network-scale (hydrological connectivity) drivers on invertebrate long-term trajectories, and to simulate near-future responses to a range of drought scenarios. We found that fluctuations in species abundances were heterogeneous across communities and driven by a combination of hydrological and stochastic drivers. Among metapopulations, increasing extent of dry reaches reduced the abundance of functional groups with low resistance or resilience capacities (i.e. low ability to persist in situ or recolonize from elsewhere, respectively). Our simulations revealed that metapopulation quasi-extinction risk for taxa vulnerable to drought increased exponentially as flowing habitats contracted within the river network, whereas the risk for taxa with resistance and resilience traits remained stable. Our results suggest that drought can be a synchronizing agent in riverscapes, potentially leading to regional quasi-extinction of species with lower resistance and resilience abilities. Better recognition of drought-driven synchronization may increase realism in species extinction forecasts as hydroclimatic extremes continue to intensify worldwide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Romain Sarremejane
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- INRAE, UR RiverLY, Centre de Lyon-Grenoble Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Rachel Stubbington
- School of Science and Technology, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham, UK
| | | | | | - Michael Eastman
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Simon Parry
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Albert Ruhi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Gortázar C, Barroso P, Nova R, Cáceres G. The role of wildlife in the epidemiology and control of Foot-and-mouth-disease And Similar Transboundary (FAST) animal diseases: A review. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:2462-2473. [PMID: 34268873 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2021] [Revised: 06/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs) are notifiable diseases which are highly transmissible and have the potential for rapid spread regardless of national borders. Many TADs are shared between domestic animals and wildlife, with the potential to affect both livestock sector and wildlife conservation and eventually, public health in the case of zoonosis. The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), a commission of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has grouped six TADs as 'Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) And Similar Transboundary animal diseases' (FAST diseases). FAST diseases are ruminant infections caused by viruses, for which vaccination is a control option. The EuFMD hold-FAST strategy aims primarily at addressing the threat represented by FAST diseases for Europe. Prevention and control of FAST diseases might benefit from assessing the role of wildlife. We reviewed the role of wildlife as indicators, victims, bridge hosts or maintenance hosts for the six TADs included in the EuFMD hold-FAST strategy: FMD, peste des petits ruminants, lumpy skin disease, sheep and goatpox, Rift Valley fever and bovine ephemeral fever. We observed that wildlife can act as indicator species. In addition, they are occasionally victims of disease outbreaks, and they are often relevant for disease management as either bridge or maintenance hosts. Wildlife deserves to become a key component of future integrated surveillance and disease control strategies in an ever-changing world. It is advisable to increase our knowledge on wildlife roles in relevant TADs to improve our preparedness in case of an outbreak in previously disease-free regions, where wildlife may be significant for disease surveillance and control.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Gortázar
- Grupo Sanidad y Biotecnología (SaBio), Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC; CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Patricia Barroso
- Grupo Sanidad y Biotecnología (SaBio), Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC; CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Rodrigo Nova
- School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, Sutton Bonington Campus, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, UK
| | - Germán Cáceres
- European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Rome, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Dallas TA, Antão LH, Pöyry J, Leinonen R, Ovaskainen O. Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20200684. [PMID: 32453988 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatially distinct pairs of sites may have similarly fluctuating population dynamics across large geographical distances, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. However, species rarely exist in isolation, but rather as members of interactive communities, linked with other communities through dispersal (i.e. a metacommunity). Using data on Finnish moth communities sampled across 65 sites for 20 years, we examine the complex synchronous/anti-synchronous relationships among sites using the geography of synchrony framework. We relate site-level synchrony to mean and temporal variation in climatic data, finding that colder and drier sites-and those with the most drastic temperature increases-are important for spatial synchrony. This suggests that faster-warming sites contribute most strongly to site-level estimates of synchrony, highlighting the role of a changing climate to spatial synchrony. Considering the spatial variability in climate change rates is therefore important to understand metacommunity dynamics and identify habitats which contribute most strongly to spatial synchrony.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tad A Dallas
- Department of Biological Science, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.,Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland
| | - Laura H Antão
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Biodiversity Centre, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Reima Leinonen
- Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, PO Box 115, FI-87101 Kajaani, Finland
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Proud Tembo NF, Bwalya Muma J, Hang’ombe B, Munyeme M. Clustering and spatial heterogeneity of bovine tuberculosis at the livestock/wildlife interface areas in Namwala District of Zambia. Vet World 2020; 13:478-488. [PMID: 32367953 PMCID: PMC7183465 DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2020.478-488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a major public health issue in Zambia and has been exacerbated by human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and consumption of unpasteurized milk in the Southern Province of the country. The prevalence of bTB has been established to be linked to Kafue Lechwe, which act as reservoir hosts and share grazing fields with domestic cattle. No studies have so far used geographic information system (GIS) to investigate the relationship between the reservoir hosts (Kafue Lechwe) and domestic animals. This study, therefore, aimed to apply GIS to investigate the spatial distribution of bTB in Namwala District of the Southern Province of the country. MATERIALS AND METHODS To investigate the spatial distribution of bTB, geographical positioning system (GPS) coordinates representing 96 cattle herds across 20 independent villages were captured alongside risk factor data. The 96 herds were based on abattoir reports of condemned carcasses and a trace back. Positive herds were confirmed by cross-reference to purified protein derivative tests conducted by the District Veterinary Office. The GPS coordinates were transferred into ArcView 3.2 and laid on the map of Namwala District alongside physical features, including national parks, game management areas, and flood plains. Questionnaires were administered across 96 independent households to assess risk factors of bTB transmission. RESULTS The results revealed a "clustered" spatial distribution of the disease in cattle in Namwala District of Zambia, particularly significant in the eastern interface areas of the district (p=0.006 using Moran's I). Abattoir to production area trace back revealed a herd-level prevalence of 36.4% (95% CI=26.7-46.3%) among cattle herds in Namwala District, whereas individual animal prevalence ranged from 0% to 14% (95% CI=2.4-26.2%). Further, GPS data indicated that the majority of the positive herds were located at the livestock/wildlife interface area. Contacts with wildlife, coupled with sharing grazing, and watering points were found to be significant risk factors for bTB transmission. CONCLUSION This study demonstrated the presence of bTB in cattle and associated spatial risk factors. In particular, bTB was observed to be a function of animal location within the livestock/wildlife interface area. GIS is thus an applicable and important tool in studying disease distribution.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Novan Fully Proud Tembo
- Department of Public Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - John Bwalya Muma
- Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka 10101, Zambia
| | - Bernard Hang’ombe
- Department of Paraclinical Studies, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka 10101, Zambia
| | - Musso Munyeme
- Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka 10101, Zambia
| |
Collapse
|