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Harish V, Colón-González FJ, Moreira FRR, Gibb R, Kraemer MUG, Davis M, Reiner RC, Pigott DM, Perkins TA, Weiss DJ, Bogoch II, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Saide PM, Barbosa GL, Sabino EC, Khan K, Faria NR, Hay SI, Correa-Morales F, Chiaravalloti-Neto F, Brady OJ. Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue. Nat Commun 2024; 15:4205. [PMID: 38806460 PMCID: PMC11133396 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48465-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vinyas Harish
- Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Felipe J Colón-González
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Filipe R R Moreira
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Departamento de Genética, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Rory Gibb
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
- Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Daniel J Weiss
- Geospatial Health and Development, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, WA, Australia
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | | | - Gerson L Barbosa
- Pasteur Institute, State Secretary of Health of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Ester C Sabino
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Kamran Khan
- Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Nuno R Faria
- Departamento de Genética, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Fabián Correa-Morales
- Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaria de Salud Mexico, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico
| | | | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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2
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Zardini A, Menegale F, Gobbi A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Trentini F, Montarsi F, Caputo B, Solimini A, Marques-Toledo C, Wilke ABB, Rosà R, Marini G, Arnoldi D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Pugliese A, Capelli G, Della Torre A, Teixeira MM, Beier JC, Rizzoli A, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e30-e40. [PMID: 38199719 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00252-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. METHODS We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. FINDINGS In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). INTERPRETATION Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. FUNDING EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Francesco Menegale
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Andrea Gobbi
- Digital Industry Center, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Mattia Manica
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Valeria d'Andrea
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | | | - Filippo Trentini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | - Fabrizio Montarsi
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy
| | - Beniamino Caputo
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Angelo Solimini
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Cecilia Marques-Toledo
- Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - André B B Wilke
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy; Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Giovanni Marini
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Daniele Arnoldi
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Ana Pastore Y Piontti
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Andrea Pugliese
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Gioia Capelli
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy
| | - Alessandra Della Torre
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Mauro M Teixeira
- Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
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3
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Lee YP, Wen TH. Understanding the spread of infectious diseases in edge areas of hotspots: dengue epidemics in tropical metropolitan regions. Int J Health Geogr 2023; 22:36. [PMID: 38072931 PMCID: PMC10710714 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-023-00355-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Identifying clusters or hotspots from disease maps is critical in research and practice. Hotspots have been shown to have a higher potential for transmission risk and may be the source of infections, making them a priority for controlling epidemics. However, the role of edge areas of hotspots in disease transmission remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the role of edge areas in disease transmission by examining whether disease incidence rate growth is higher in the edges of disease hotspots during outbreaks. Our data is based on the three most severe dengue epidemic years in Kaohsiung city, Taiwan, from 1998 to 2020. We employed conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and Bayesian areal Wombling methods to identify significant edge areas of hotspots based on the extent of risk difference between adjacent areas. The difference-in-difference (DID) estimator in spatial panel models measures the growth rate of risk by comparing the incidence rate between two groups (hotspots and edge areas) over two time periods. Our results show that in years characterized by exceptionally large-scale outbreaks, the edge areas of hotspots have a more significant increase in disease risk than hotspots, leading to a higher risk of disease transmission and potential disease foci. This finding explains the geographic diffusion mechanism of epidemics, a pattern mixed with expansion and relocation, indicating that the edge areas play an essential role. The study highlights the importance of considering edge areas of hotspots in disease transmission. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights for policymakers and health authorities in designing effective interventions to control large-scale disease outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ya-Peng Lee
- Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Tzai-Hung Wen
- Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
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4
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Nakase T, Giovanetti M, Obolski U, Lourenço J. Global transmission suitability maps for dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti from 1981 to 2019. Sci Data 2023; 10:275. [PMID: 37173303 PMCID: PMC10182074 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02170-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses increasingly threaten human populations due to accelerating changes in climate, human and mosquito migration, and land use practices. Over the last three decades, the global distribution of dengue has rapidly expanded, causing detrimental health and economic problems in many areas of the world. To develop effective disease control measures and plan for future epidemics, there is an urgent need to map the current and future transmission potential of dengue across both endemic and emerging areas. Expanding and applying Index P, a previously developed mosquito-borne viral suitability measure, we map the global climate-driven transmission potential of dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from 1981 to 2019. This database of dengue transmission suitability maps and an R package for Index P estimations are offered to the public health community as resources towards the identification of past, current and future transmission hotspots. These resources and the studies they facilitate can contribute to the planning of disease control and prevention strategies, especially in areas where surveillance is unreliable or non-existent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taishi Nakase
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
| | - Marta Giovanetti
- Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21040-360, Brazil
- Department of Science and Technology for Humans and the Environment, University of Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, 00128, Italy
| | - Uri Obolski
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel
| | - José Lourenço
- Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, 1749-016, Portugal.
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5
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Lessa CLS, Hodel KVS, Gonçalves MDS, Machado BAS. Dengue as a Disease Threatening Global Health: A Narrative Review Focusing on Latin America and Brazil. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:241. [PMID: 37235289 PMCID: PMC10221906 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8050241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses constitute the largest known group of viruses. These viruses are the etiological agents of pathologies known as arboviruses, with dengue being one of the most prevalent. Dengue has resulted in important socioeconomic burdens placed on different countries around the world, including those in Latin America, especially Brazil. Thus, this work intends to carry out a narrative-based review of the literature, conducted using a study of the secondary data developed through a survey of scientific literature databases, and to present the situation of dengue, particularly its distribution in these localities. Our findings from the literature demonstrate the difficulties that managers face in controlling the spread of and planning a response against dengue, pointing to the high cost of the disease for public coffers, rendering the resources that are already limited even scarcer. This can be associated with the different factors that affect the spread of the disease, including ecological, environmental, and social factors. Thus, in order to combat the disease, it is expected that targeted and properly coordinated public policies need to be adopted not only in specific localities, but also globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Letacio Silveira Lessa
- Postgraduate Program in Industrial Management and Technology, SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador 41650-010, Brazil
- Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (IGM-FIOCRUZ/BA), Salvador 40296-710, Brazil
| | - Katharine Valéria Saraiva Hodel
- SENAI Institute of Innovation (ISI) in Health Advanced Systems (CIMATEC ISI SAS), SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador 41650-010, Brazil
| | - Marilda de Souza Gonçalves
- Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (IGM-FIOCRUZ/BA), Salvador 40296-710, Brazil
- Anemia Research Laboratory, Department of Clinical and Toxicological Analysis, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40170-115, Brazil
| | - Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado
- Postgraduate Program in Industrial Management and Technology, SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador 41650-010, Brazil
- SENAI Institute of Innovation (ISI) in Health Advanced Systems (CIMATEC ISI SAS), SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador 41650-010, Brazil
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6
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Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data. Epidemiol Infect 2022; 151:e5. [PMID: 36524247 PMCID: PMC9837419 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268822001947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.
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7
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Diptyanusa A, Herini ES, Indarjulianto S, Satoto TBT. Estimation of Japanese encephalitis virus infection prevalence in mosquitoes and bats through nationwide sentinel surveillance in Indonesia. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0275647. [PMID: 36223381 PMCID: PMC9555671 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 09/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Indonesia belongs to endemic areas of Japanese encephalitis (JE), yet data regarding the true risk of disease transmission are lacking. While many seroprevalence studies reported its classic enzootic transmission, data related to the role of bats in the transmission of JE virus are limited. This current study aimed to identify the potential role of bats in the local transmission of the JE virus to aid the ongoing active case surveillance in Indonesia, in order to estimate the transmission risk. Mosquitoes and bats were collected from 11 provinces in Indonesia. The detection of the JE virus used polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Maps were generated to analyze the JE virus distribution pattern. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify risk factors of JE virus transmission. JE virus was detected in 1.4% (7/483) of mosquito pools and in 2.0% (68/3,322) of bat samples. Mosquito species positive for JE virus were Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Cx. vishnui, whereas JE-positive bats belonged to the genera Cynopterus, Eonycteris, Hipposideros, Kerivoula, Macroglossus, Pipistrellus, Rousettus, Scotophilus and Thoopterus. JE-positive mosquitoes were collected at the same sites as the JE-positive bats. Collection site nearby human dwellings (AOR: 2.02; P = 0.009) and relative humidity of >80% (AOR: 2.40; P = 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for JE virus transmission. The findings of the current study highlighted the likely ongoing risk of JE virus transmission in many provinces in Indonesia, and its potential implications on human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ajib Diptyanusa
- Doctoral Study Program of Health and Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
- World Health Organization Indonesia Country Office, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Elisabeth Siti Herini
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Soedarmanto Indarjulianto
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
- * E-mail:
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8
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Manica M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Zerbini A, Bisaccia E, Litvinova M, Menegale F, Molina Grané C, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S. Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 19:100446. [PMID: 35791373 PMCID: PMC9246701 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Background Starting from the final months of 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, the variant that was dominant at the time. Many uncertainties remain about the epidemiology of Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation time. Methods We used a Bayesian approach to analyze 23,122 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals clustered in 8903 households as determined from contact tracing operations in Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout January 2022. We estimated the distribution of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases in a fully susceptible population), realized household generation time, realized serial interval (time between symptom onset of an infector and its secondary cases), and contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission. Findings We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 6.84 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 5.72-8.60), and a mean realized household generation time of 3.59 days (95%CrI: 3.55-3.60). The household serial interval was 2.38 days (95%CrI 2.30-2.47) with about 51% (95%CrI 45-56%) of infections caused by symptomatic individuals being generated before symptom onset. Interpretation These results indicate that the intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant might not have shortened as compared to previous estimates on ancestral lineages, Alpha and Delta, in the same geographic setting. Like for previous lineages, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to play a key role for Omicron transmission. Estimates in this study may be useful to design quarantine, isolation and contact tracing protocols and to support surveillance (e.g., for the accurate computation of reproduction numbers). Funding The study was partially funded by EU grant 874850 MOOD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Manica
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Alfredo De Bellis
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Pamela Mancuso
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Massimo Vicentini
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Francesco Venturelli
- Public Health Department, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Alessandro Zerbini
- Unit of Clinical Immunology, Allergy and Advanced Biotechnologies, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Eufemia Bisaccia
- Public Health Department, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Maria Litvinova
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Francesco Menegale
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Carla Molina Grané
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | | | - Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Valeria d'Andrea
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Filippo Trentini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
- Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | - Antonino Bella
- Dipartimento di Malattie Infettive, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
| | - Flavia Riccardo
- Dipartimento di Malattie Infettive, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
| | - Patrizio Pezzotti
- Dipartimento di Malattie Infettive, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Paolo Giorgi Rossi
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - the Reggio Emilia COVID-19 Working Group
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
- Public Health Department, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
- Unit of Clinical Immunology, Allergy and Advanced Biotechnologies, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Italy
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
- Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
- Dipartimento di Malattie Infettive, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
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9
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Coatsworth H, Lippi CA, Vasquez C, Ayers JB, Stephenson CJ, Waits C, Florez M, Wilke AB, Unlu I, Medina J, Ryan SJ, Lednicky JA, Beier JC, Petrie W, Dinglasan RR. A molecular surveillance-guided vector control response to concurrent dengue and West Nile virus outbreaks in a COVID-19 hotspot of Florida. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2022; 11:100231. [PMID: 36778921 PMCID: PMC9903724 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Background Simultaneous dengue virus (DENV) and West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in Florida, USA, in 2020 resulted in 71 dengue virus serotype 1 and 86 WNV human cases. We hypothesized that we would find a number of DENV-1 positive mosquito pools, and that the distribution of these arbovirus-positive mosquito pools would be associated with those neighborhoods for which imported DENV cases have been recently reported in 2019 and 2020. Methods We collected and screened Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Anopheles crucians, Culex coronator, Cx. nigripalpus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes from Miami-Dade County (Florida) for DENV and WNV by rRT-qPCR. Spatial statistical analyses were performed to capture positive mosquito pool distribution in relation to land use, human demography, environmental variables, mosquito trap placement and reported human travel associated DENV cases to guide future mosquito control outbreak responses. Findings A rapid screen of 7,668 mosquitoes detected four DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2), nine DENV-4 and nine WNV-positive mosquito pools, which enabled swift and targeted abatement of trap sites by mosquito control. As expected, DENV-positive pools were in urban areas; however, we found WNV-positive mosquito pools in agricultural and recreational areas with no historical reports of WNV transmission. Interpretation These findings demonstrate the importance of proactive arbovirus surveillance in mosquito populations to prevent and control outbreaks, particularly when other illnesses (e.g., COVID-19), which present with similar symptoms, are circulating concurrently. Growing evidence for substantial infection prevalence of dengue in mosquitoes in the absence of local index cases suggests a higher level of dengue endemicity in Florida than previously thought. Funding This research was supported in part by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) grant 1U01CK000510-03, Southeastern Regional Center of Excellence in Vector Borne Diseases Gateway Program.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Jasmine B. Ayers
- University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | | | - Christy Waits
- University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
- Navy Entomology Center of Excellence, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Mary Florez
- University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | | | - Isik Unlu
- Miami-Dade Mosquito Control District, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Johana Medina
- Miami-Dade Mosquito Control District, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Sadie J. Ryan
- University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - John A. Lednicky
- University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
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10
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Romeo-Aznar V, Picinini Freitas L, Gonçalves Cruz O, King AA, Pascual M. Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics. Nat Commun 2022; 13:996. [PMID: 35194017 PMCID: PMC8864019 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28231-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2021] [Accepted: 01/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria Romeo-Aznar
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, and Instituto IEGEBA (CONICET-UBA), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón 2, C1428EHA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Laís Picinini Freitas
- Postgraduate Program of Epidemiology in Public Health - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Programa de Computação Científica - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Aaron A King
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA.
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11
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Huber JH, Hsiang MS, Dlamini N, Murphy M, Vilakati S, Nhlabathi N, Lerch A, Nielsen R, Ntshalintshali N, Greenhouse B, Perkins TA. Inferring person-to-person networks of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: are analyses of routine surveillance data up to the task? Malar J 2022; 21:58. [PMID: 35189905 PMCID: PMC8860266 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-022-04072-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2021] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Inference of person-to-person transmission networks using surveillance data is increasingly used to estimate spatiotemporal patterns of pathogen transmission. Several data types can be used to inform transmission network inferences, yet the sensitivity of those inferences to different data types is not routinely evaluated. METHODS The influence of different combinations of spatial, temporal, and travel-history data on transmission network inferences for Plasmodium falciparum malaria were evaluated. RESULTS The information content of these data types may be limited for inferring person-to-person transmission networks and may lead to an overestimate of transmission. Only when outbreaks were temporally focal or travel histories were accurate was the algorithm able to accurately estimate the reproduction number under control, Rc. Applying this approach to data from Eswatini indicated that inferences of Rc and spatiotemporal patterns therein depend upon the choice of data types and assumptions about travel-history data. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that transmission network inferences made with routine malaria surveillance data should be interpreted with caution.
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Affiliation(s)
- John H Huber
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
| | - Michelle S Hsiang
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.,Malaria Elimination Initiative, Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco,, CA, USA
| | - Nomcebo Dlamini
- National Malaria Elimination Programme, Ministry of Health, Manzini, Eswatini
| | - Maxwell Murphy
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Nomcebo Nhlabathi
- National Malaria Elimination Programme, Ministry of Health, Manzini, Eswatini
| | - Anita Lerch
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Rasmus Nielsen
- Department of Integrative Biology and Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Bryan Greenhouse
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
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12
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Sun H, Binder RA, Dickens B, de Sessions PF, Rabaa MA, Ho EXP, Cook AR, Carrillo FB, Monterrey JC, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Ooi EE, Harris E, Sessions OM. Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic. EBioMedicine 2021; 72:103596. [PMID: 34627081 PMCID: PMC8511802 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2021.103596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Nicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially. METHODS We analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Managua, which was expanded to include Zika in 2015. An optimal spanning directed tree was constructed by minimizing the differences in viral sequence diversity composition between patient nodes, where low-frequency variants were used to increase the resolution of the inferred Zika outbreak dynamics. FINDINGS Out of the 18 houses where pairwise difference in sample collection dates among all the household members was within 30 days, we only found two where viruses from individuals within the same household were up to 10th-most closely linked to each other genetically. We also identified a substantial number of transmission events involving long geographical distances (n=30), as well as potential super-spreading events in the estimated transmission tree. INTERPRETATION Our finding highlights that community transmission, often involving long geographical distances, played a much more important role in epidemic spread than within-household transmission. FUNDING This study was supported by an NUS startup grant (OMS) and grants R01 AI099631 (AB), P01 AI106695 (EH), P01 AI106695-03S1 (FB), and U19 AI118610 (EH) from the US National Institutes of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoyang Sun
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Raquel A. Binder
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Borame Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | | | - Maia A. Rabaa
- The Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Alex R Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Fausto Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Health Center Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Eng Eong Ooi
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
- Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - October M. Sessions
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
- Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Pharmacy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
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13
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Lim JS, Kim E, Ryu PD, Pak SI. Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars ( Sus scrofa) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea. J Vet Sci 2021; 22:e71. [PMID: 34553516 PMCID: PMC8460458 DOI: 10.4142/jvs.2021.22.e71] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. Objectives This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Methods We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. Results Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. Conclusions The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun-Sik Lim
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
| | - Eutteum Kim
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
| | - Pan-Dong Ryu
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 08732, Korea
| | - Son-Il Pak
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea.
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14
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Li N, Feng Y, Vrancken B, Chen Y, Dong L, Yang Q, Kraemer MU, Pybus OG, Zhang H, Brady OJ, Tian H. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 border restrictions on dengue transmission in Yunnan Province, China: an observational epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2021; 14:100259. [PMID: 34528006 PMCID: PMC8387751 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2021] [Revised: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, China implemented strict restrictions on cross-border travel to prevent disease importation. Yunnan, a Chinese province that borders dengue-endemic countries in Southeast Asia, experienced unprecedented reduction in dengue, from 6840 recorded cases in 2019 to 260 in 2020. METHODS Using a combination of epidemiological and virus genomic data, collected from 2013 to 2020 in Yunnan and neighbouring countries, we conduct a series of analyses to characterise the role of virus importation in driving dengue dynamics in Yunnan and assess the association between recent international travel restrictions and the decline in dengue reported in Yunnan in 2020. FINDINGS We find strong evidence that dengue incidence between 2013-2019 in Yunnan was closely linked with international importation of cases. A 0-2 month lag in incidence not explained by seasonal differences, absence of local transmission in the winter, effective reproductive numbers < 1 (as estimated independently using genetic data) and diverse cosmopolitan dengue virus phylogenies all suggest dengue is non-endemic in Yunnan. Using a multivariate statistical model we show that the substantial decline in dengue incidence observed in Yunnan in 2020 but not in neighbouring countries is closely associated with the timing of international travel restrictions, even after accounting for other environmental drivers of dengue incidence. INTERPRETATION We conclude that Yunnan is a regional sink for DENV lineage movement and that border restrictions may have substantially reduced dengue burden in 2020, potentially averting thousands of cases. Targeted testing and surveillance of travelers returning from high-risk areas could help to inform public health strategies to minimise or even eliminate dengue outbreaks in non-endemic settings like southern China. FUNDING Funding for this study was provided by National Key Research and Development Program of China, Beijing Science and Technology Planning Project (Z201100005420010); Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ18025); Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science; National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073616); Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST (YESS) (2018QNRC001); H.T., O.P.G. and M.U.G.K. acknowledge support from the Oxford Martin School. O.J.B was supported by a Wellcome Trust Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship (206471/Z/17/Z). Chinese translation of the abstract (Appendix 2).
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Affiliation(s)
- Naizhe Li
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Yun Feng
- Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali, China
| | - Bram Vrancken
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Evolutionary and Computational Virology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Yuyang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Lu Dong
- College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiqi Yang
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Moritz U.G. Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK,Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA,Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Oliver G. Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK,Department of Pathobiology and Population Science, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK
| | - Hailin Zhang
- Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali, China,Corresponding author
| | - Oliver J. Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK,Corresponding author
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Corresponding author
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15
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Brady OJ, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Jafari Y, Loock MV, Herrera-Taracena G, Menten J, Edmunds WJ, Sim S, Ng LC, Hué S, Hibberd ML. Case-area targeted interventions (CATI) for reactive dengue control: Modelling effectiveness of vector control and prophylactic drugs in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009562. [PMID: 34379641 PMCID: PMC8357181 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Targeting interventions to areas that have recently experienced cases of disease is one strategy to contain outbreaks of infectious disease. Such case-area targeted interventions (CATI) have become an increasingly popular approach for dengue control but there is little evidence to suggest how precisely targeted or how recent cases need to be, to mount an effective response. The growing interest in the development of prophylactic and therapeutic drugs for dengue has also given new relevance for CATI strategies to interrupt transmission or deliver early treatment. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Here we develop a patch-based mathematical model of spatial dengue spread and fit it to spatiotemporal datasets from Singapore. Simulations from this model suggest CATI strategies could be effective, particularly if used in lower density areas. To maximise effectiveness, increasing the size of the radius around an index case should be prioritised even if it results in delays in the intervention being applied. This is partially because large intervention radii ensure individuals receive multiple and regular rounds of drug dosing or vector control, and thus boost overall coverage. Given equivalent efficacy, CATIs using prophylactic drugs are predicted to be more effective than adult mosquito-killing vector control methods and may even offer the possibility of interrupting individual chains of transmission if rapidly deployed. CATI strategies quickly lose their effectiveness if baseline transmission increases or case detection rates fall. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results suggest CATI strategies can play an important role in dengue control but are likely to be most relevant for low transmission areas where high coverage of other non-reactive interventions already exists. Controlled field trials are needed to assess the field efficacy and practical constraints of large operational CATI strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver J. Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yalda Jafari
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marnix Van Loock
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Guillermo Herrera-Taracena
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Horsham, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Joris Menten
- Quantitative Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shuzhen Sim
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lee-Ching Ng
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stéphane Hué
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Martin L. Hibberd
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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16
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Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009465. [PMID: 34115753 PMCID: PMC8221794 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions. Dengue fever is mainly transmitted by a mosquito species that is highly urbanized, and lays eggs and develops mostly in artificial water containers. Dengue transmission is sustained year-round in most tropical regions of the world, but in many subtropical/temperate regions it occurs only in the warmest months. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these regions, we analyzed one of the largest outbreaks in Buenos Aires city, a subtropical metropolis. Based on information on 5,104 georeferenced cases during summer-autumn 2016, we found that most transmission occurred in or near home, that slums had the highest risk of transmission, and that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. We showed that the cumulative effects of temperature over the previous few weeks set the temporal limits for transmission to occur, and that the outbreak was sparked by infected people arriving from regions with ongoing outbreaks. Additionally, we implemented a statistical method to identify transmission foci in real-time that improves targeting control interventions. Our results deepen the understanding of dengue transmission as a result of social, physical, and biological processes, and pose multiple opportunities for improving control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever.
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17
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Faridah L, Mindra IGN, Putra RE, Fauziah N, Agustian D, Natalia YA, Watanabe K. Spatial and temporal analysis of hospitalized dengue patients in Bandung: demographics and risk. Trop Med Health 2021; 49:44. [PMID: 34039439 PMCID: PMC8152360 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-021-00329-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, estimation of incidence could be inaccurate due to a lack of reliable surveillance systems. To provide strategic information for the dengue control program in the face of limited capacity, this study used spatial pattern analysis of a possible outbreak of dengue cases, through the Geographic Information System (GIS). To further enhance the information needed for effective policymaking, we also analyzed the demographic pattern of dengue cases. Methods Monthly reports of dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2016 from 16 hospitals in Bandung were collected as the database, which consisted of address, sex, age, and code to anonymize the patients. The address was then transformed into geocoding and used to estimate the relative risk of a particular area’s developing a cluster of dengue cases. We used the kernel density estimation method to analyze the dynamics of change of dengue cases. Results The model showed that the spatial cluster of the relative risk of dengue incidence was relatively unchanged for 3 years. Dengue high-risk areas predominated in the southern and southeastern parts of Bandung, while low-risk areas were found mostly in its western and northeastern regions. The kernel density estimation showed strong cluster groups of dengue cases in the city. Conclusions This study demonstrated a strong pattern of reported cases related to specific demographic groups (males and children). Furthermore, spatial analysis using GIS also visualized the dynamic development of the aggregation of disease incidence (hotspots) for dengue cases in Bandung. These data may provide strategic information for the planning and design of dengue control programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lia Faridah
- Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia. .,Foreign Visiting Researcher at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan.
| | | | - Ramadhani Eka Putra
- School of Life Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganeca 10, Bandung, West Java, 40132, Indonesia
| | - Nisa Fauziah
- Parasitology Division, Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Dwi Agustian
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Yessika Adelwin Natalia
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Kozo Watanabe
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan
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18
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Lee SA, Jarvis CI, Edmunds WJ, Economou T, Lowe R. Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210096. [PMID: 34034534 PMCID: PMC8150046 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie A. Lee
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher I. Jarvis
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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19
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Lim JT, Dickens BL, Ong J, Aik J, Lee VJ, Cook AR, Ng LC. Decreased dengue transmission in migrant worker populations in Singapore attributable to SARS-CoV-2 quarantine measures. J Travel Med 2021; 28:taaa228. [PMID: 33274384 PMCID: PMC7798931 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2020] [Revised: 11/24/2020] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We examined the impact of SARS-CoV-2 social distancing and quarantine policies on dengue transmission in the general and migrant worker populations in Singapore. METHODS We utilized all nationally reported dengue cases in the general and migrant worker populations from 1 January 2013 to 31 May 2020. A difference-in-difference identification strategy was used to determine the effects of social distancing and quarantine policies on reported dengue case counts over time, whilst controlling for weather patterns, seasonality, age and population size. RESULTS A reduction of 4.8 dengue cases per age band among migrant workers was attributable to quarantine policies, corresponding to a total reduction of around 432 reported dengue cases over 10 weeks. In the general working population, an increase of 14.5 dengue cases per age band was observed, which corresponds to a total increase of around 1450 reported dengue cases in the same time period. There is an expected relative risk reduction in dengue transmission for the migrant worker population at 0.635 due to quarantine policy and a relative risk increase for the general working population due to social distancing policies at 0.685. CONCLUSIONS Migrant workers experienced a reduced risk of dengue when they were confined to their dormitories as part of the COVID-19 social distancing measures. Our study highlights the vulnerability of migrant workers under normal working conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jue Tao Lim
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Borame Lee Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Janet Ong
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environmental Agency, Singapore
| | - Joel Aik
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environmental Agency, Singapore
| | - Vernon J Lee
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
- Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Alex R Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Lee Ching Ng
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environmental Agency, Singapore
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20
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Societal lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to unprecedented disruption to daily life across the globe. A collateral effect of these lockdowns may be a change to transmission dynamics of a wide range of infectious diseases that are all highly dependent on rates of contact between humans. With timing, duration and intensity of lockdowns varying country-to-country, the wave of lockdowns in 2020 present a unique opportunity to observe how changes in human contact rates, disease control and surveillance affect dengue virus transmission in a global natural experiment. We explore the theoretical basis for the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission and surveillance then summarise the current evidence base from country reports. RECENT FINDINGS We find considerable variation in the intensity of dengue epidemics reported so far in 2020 with some countries experiencing historic low levels of transmission while others are seeing record outbreaks. Despite many studies warning of the risks of lockdown for dengue transmission, few empirically quantify the impact and issues such as the specific timing of the lockdowns and multi-annual cycles of dengue are not accounted for. In the few studies where such issues have been accounted for, the impact of lockdowns on dengue appears to be limited. SUMMARY Studying the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission is important both in how we deal with the immediate COVID-19 and dengue crisis, but also over the coming years in the post-pandemic recovery period. It is clear lockdowns have had very different impacts in different settings. Further analyses might ultimately allow this unique natural experiment to provide insights into how to better control dengue that will ultimately lead to better long-term control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Brady
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
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21
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Bomfim R, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana T, Makse HA, Andrade JS, Lima Neto AS, Furtado V. Predicting dengue outbreaks at neighbourhood level using human mobility in urban areas. J R Soc Interface 2020; 17:20200691. [PMID: 33109025 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the Aedes genus mosquito. It causes financial burdens on public health systems and considerable morbidity and mortality. Tropical regions in the Americas and Asia are the areas most affected by the virus. Fortaleza is a city with approximately 2.6 million inhabitants in northeastern Brazil that, during the recent decades, has been suffering from endemic dengue transmission, interspersed with larger epidemics. The objective of this paper is to study the impact of human mobility in urban areas on the spread of the dengue virus, and to test whether human mobility data can be used to improve predictions of dengue virus transmission at the neighbourhood level. We present two distinct forecasting systems for dengue transmission in Fortaleza: the first using artificial neural network methods and the second developed using a mechanistic model of disease transmission. We then present enhanced versions of the two forecasting systems that incorporate bus transportation data cataloguing movement among 119 neighbourhoods in Fortaleza. Each forecasting system was used to perform retrospective forecasts for historical dengue outbreaks from 2007 to 2015. Results show that both artificial neural networks and mechanistic models can accurately forecast dengue cases, and that the inclusion of human mobility data substantially improves the performance of both forecasting systems. While the mechanistic models perform better in capturing seasons with large-scale outbreaks, the neural networks more accurately forecast outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and annual dengue time series. These results have two practical implications: they support the creation of public policies from the use of the models created here to combat the disease and help to understand the impact of urban mobility on the epidemic in large cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Bomfim
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Informática Aplicada Universidade de Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Brazil
| | - Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
| | - Teresa Yamana
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
| | - Hernán A Makse
- Levich Institute and Physics Department, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
| | - José S Andrade
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Campus do Pici, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Antonio S Lima Neto
- Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Fortaleza (SMS-Fortaleza), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.,Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Vasco Furtado
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Informática Aplicada Universidade de Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Brazil
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22
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Guzzetta G, Vairo F, Mammone A, Lanini S, Poletti P, Manica M, Rosa R, Caputo B, Solimini A, Torre AD, Scognamiglio P, Zumla A, Ippolito G, Merler S. Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis. BMC Med 2020; 18:226. [PMID: 32762750 PMCID: PMC7412829 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01674-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2019] [Accepted: 06/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The spatial spread of many mosquito-borne diseases occurs by focal spread at the scale of a few hundred meters and over longer distances due to human mobility. The relative contributions of different spatial scales for transmission of chikungunya virus require definition to improve outbreak vector control recommendations. METHODS We analyzed data from a large chikungunya outbreak mediated by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in the Lazio region, Italy, consisting of 414 reported human cases between June and November 2017. Using dates of symptom onset, geographic coordinates of residence, and information from epidemiological questionnaires, we reconstructed transmission chains related to that outbreak. RESULTS Focal spread (within 1 km) accounted for 54.9% of all cases, 15.8% were transmitted at a local scale (1-15 km) and the remaining 29.3% were exported from the main areas of chikungunya circulation in Lazio to longer distances such as Rome and other geographical areas. Seventy percent of focal infections (corresponding to 38% of the total 414 cases) were transmitted within a distance of 200 m (the buffer distance adopted by the national guidelines for insecticide spraying). Two main epidemic clusters were identified, with a radius expanding at a rate of 300-600 m per month. The majority of exported cases resulted in either sporadic or no further transmission in the region. CONCLUSIONS Evidence suggest that human mobility contributes to seeding a relevant number of secondary cases and new foci of transmission over several kilometers. Reactive vector control based on current guidelines might allow a significant number of secondary clusters in untreated areas, especially if the outbreak is not detected early. Existing policies and guidelines for control during outbreaks should recommend the prioritization of preventive measures in neighboring territories with known mobility flows to the main areas of transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Information Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Francesco Vairo
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani" IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
| | - Alessia Mammone
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani" IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Simone Lanini
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani" IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Information Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Mattia Manica
- Centro Agricoltura Alimenti e Ambiente, Università di Trento, San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy
| | - Roberto Rosa
- Centro Agricoltura Alimenti e Ambiente, Università di Trento, San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy.,Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare/Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Beniamino Caputo
- Dipartimento di Sanitá Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Angelo Solimini
- Dipartimento di Sanitá Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Alessandra Della Torre
- Dipartimento di Sanitá Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Paola Scognamiglio
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani" IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Alimuddin Zumla
- Division of Infection and Immunity, Center for Clinical Microbiology, University College London, London, UK.,the National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at UCL Hospitals, London, UK
| | - Giuseppe Ippolito
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Lazzaro Spallanzani" IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Information Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
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23
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Subramanian R, Romeo-Aznar V, Ionides E, Codeço CT, Pascual M. Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986-1990. J R Soc Interface 2020; 17:20200273. [PMID: 32574544 PMCID: PMC7328382 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting arbovirus re-emergence remains challenging in regions with limited off-season transmission and intermittent epidemics. Current mathematical models treat the depletion and replenishment of susceptible (non-immune) hosts as the principal drivers of re-emergence, based on established understanding of highly transmissible childhood diseases with frequent epidemics. We extend an analytical approach to determine the number of ‘skip’ years preceding re-emergence for diseases with continuous seasonal transmission, population growth and under-reporting. Re-emergence times are shown to be highly sensitive to small changes in low R0 (secondary cases produced from a primary infection in a fully susceptible population). We then fit a stochastic Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model to observed case data for the emergence of dengue serotype DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro. This aggregated city-level model substantially over-estimates observed re-emergence times either in terms of skips or outbreak probability under forward simulation. The inability of susceptible depletion and replenishment to explain re-emergence under ‘well-mixed’ conditions at a city-wide scale demonstrates a key limitation of SIR aggregated models, including those applied to other arboviruses. The predictive uncertainty and high skip sensitivity to epidemiological parameters suggest a need to investigate the relevant spatial scales of susceptible depletion and the scaling of microscale transmission dynamics to formulate simpler models that apply at coarse resolutions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahul Subramanian
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Victoria Romeo-Aznar
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, and, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.,Manseuto Institute for Urban Innovation, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Edward Ionides
- Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Claudia T Codeço
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, and, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.,Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA
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24
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Diptyanusa A, Lazuardi L, Jatmiko RH. Implementation of geographical information systems for the study of diseases caused by vector-borne arboviruses in Southeast Asia: A review based on the publication record. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH 2020; 15. [PMID: 32575973 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2020.862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The spread of mosquito-borne diseases in Southeast Asia has dramatically increased in the latest decades. These infections include dengue, chikungunya and Japanese Encephalitis (JE), high-burden viruses sharing overlapping disease manifestation and vector distribution. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to monitor the dynamics of disease and vector distribution can assist in disease epidemic prediction and public health interventions, particularly in Southeast Asia where sustained high temperatures drive the epidemic spread of these mosquito-borne viruses. Due to lack of accurate data, the spatial and temporal dynamics of these mosquito-borne viral disease transmission countries are poorly understood, which has limited disease control effort. By following studies carried out on these three viruses across the region in a specific time period revealing general patterns of research activities and characteristics, this review finds the need to improve decision-support by disease mapping and management. The results presented, based on a publication search with respect to diseases due to arboviruses, specifically dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis, should improve opportunities for future studies on the implementation of GIS in the control of mosquito-borne viral diseases in Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ajib Diptyanusa
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jalan Farmako, Sekip Utara.
| | - Lutfan Lazuardi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jalan Farmako, Sekip Utara.
| | - Retnadi Heru Jatmiko
- Centre for Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (PUSPICS), Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara, Yogyakarta.
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25
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Mores GB, Schuler-Faccini L, Hasenack H, Fetzer LO, Souza GD, Ferraz G. Site Occupancy by Aedes aegypti in a Subtropical City is Most Sensitive to Control during Autumn and Winter Months. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 103:445-454. [PMID: 32394876 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Aedes aegypti mosquito inhabits most tropical and subtropical regions of the globe, where it transmits arboviral diseases of substantial public health relevance, such as dengue fever. In subtropical regions, Ae. aegypti often presents an annual abundance cycle driven by weather conditions. Because different population states may show varying responses to control, we are interested in studying what time of the year is most appropriate for control. To do so, we developed two dynamic site-occupancy models based on more than 200 weeks of mosquito trapping data from nearly 900 sites in a subtropical Brazilian city. Our phenomenological, Markovian models, fitted to data in a Bayesian framework, accounted for failure to detect mosquitoes in two alternative ways and for temporal variation in dynamic rates of local extinction and colonization of new sites. Infestation varied from nearly full cover of the city area in late summer, to between 10% and 67% of sites occupied in winter depending on the model. Sensitivity analysis reveals that changes in dynamic rates should have the greatest impact on site occupancy during autumn and early winter months, when the mosquito population is declining. We discuss the implications of this finding to the timing of mosquito control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guilherme Barradas Mores
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Lavinia Schuler-Faccini
- Departamento de Genética, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.,Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Serviço de Genética Médica, Porto Alegre, Brazil.,INAGEMP, Instituto Nacional de Genetica Medica Populacional, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Heinrich Hasenack
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Liane Oliveira Fetzer
- Núcleo de Vigilância de Roedores e Vetores, Diretoria Geral de Vigilância em Saúde, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Getúlio Dornelles Souza
- Núcleo de Vigilância de Roedores e Vetores, Diretoria Geral de Vigilância em Saúde, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Gonçalo Ferraz
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.,Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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26
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Guevara C, Penas MS. Surveillance Routing of COVID-19 Infection Spread Using an Intelligent Infectious Diseases Algorithm. IEEE ACCESS : PRACTICAL INNOVATIONS, OPEN SOLUTIONS 2020; 8:201925-201936. [PMID: 34812367 PMCID: PMC8545257 DOI: 10.1109/access.2020.3036347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
In this study, the Intelligent Infectious Diseases Algorithm (IIDA) has been developed to locate the sources of infection and survival rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), in order to propose health care routes for population affected by COVID-19. The main goal of this computational algorithm is to reduce the spread of the virus and decrease the number of infected people. To do so, health care routes are generated according to the priority of certain population groups. The algorithm was applied to New York state data. Based on infection rates and reported deaths, hot spots were determined by applying the kernel density estimation (KDE) to the groups that have been previously obtained using a clustering algorithm together with the elbow method. For each cluster, the survival rate -the key information to prioritize medical care- was determined using the proportional hazards model. Finally, ant colony optimization (ACO) and the traveling salesman problem (TSP) optimization algorithms were applied to identify the optimal route to the closest hospital. The results obtained efficiently covered the points with the highest concentration of COVID-19 cases. In this way, its spread can be prevented and health resources optimized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cesar Guevara
- Centre of Mechatronics and Interactive Systems (MIST)Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica Quito 170301 Ecuador
| | - Matilde Santos Penas
- Institute of Knowledge Technology, Complutense University of Madrid 28040 Madrid Spain
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27
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Ng TC, Wen TH. Spatially Adjusted Time-varying Reproductive Numbers: Understanding the Geographical Expansion of Urban Dengue Outbreaks. Sci Rep 2019; 9:19172. [PMID: 31844099 PMCID: PMC6914775 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-55574-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2019] [Accepted: 11/26/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The basic reproductive number (R0) is a fundamental measure used to quantify the transmission potential of an epidemic in public health practice. However, R0 cannot reflect the time-varying nature of an epidemic. A time-varying effective reproductive number Rt can provide more information because it tracks the subsequent evolution of transmission. However, since it neglects individual-level geographical variations in exposure risk, Rt may smooth out interpersonal heterogeneous transmission potential, obscure high-risk spreaders, and hence hamper the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension. Therefore, this study proposes a new method for quantifying spatially adjusted (time-varying) reproductive numbers that reflects spatial heterogeneity in transmission potential among individuals. This new method estimates individual-level effective reproductive numbers (Rj) and a summarized indicator for population-level time-varying reproductive number (Rt). Data from the five most severe dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015 were used to demonstrate the ability of the method to highlight early spreaders contributing to the geographic expansion of dengue transmission. Our results show spatial heterogeneity in the transmission potential of dengue among individuals and identify the spreaders with the highest Rj during the epidemic period. The results also reveal that super-spreaders are usually early spreaders that locate at the edges of the epidemic foci, which means that these cases could be the drivers of the expansion of the outbreak. Therefore, our proposed method depicts a more detailed spatial-temporal dengue transmission process and identifies the significant role of the edges of the epidemic foci, which could be weak spots in disease control and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ta-Chou Ng
- Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 100, Taiwan
| | - Tzai-Hung Wen
- Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei City, 106, Taiwan.
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28
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Mao X, Li J, An R, Zhao W, Li K, Li R, Deng Y, Liang X, Yang M, Zhang J, Tang K. Study of key technologies for fishways in the plateaus of western China. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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O'Reilly KM, Hendrickx E, Kharisma DD, Wilastonegoro NN, Carrington LB, Elyazar IRF, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Flasche S, Pigott DM, Reiner RC, Edmunds WJ, Hay SI, Yakob L, Shepard DS, Brady OJ. Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study. BMC Med 2019; 17:172. [PMID: 31495336 PMCID: PMC6732838 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2019] [Accepted: 07/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. METHODS Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. RESULTS We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen M O'Reilly
- Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Emilie Hendrickx
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Dinar D Kharisma
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA
| | - Nandyan N Wilastonegoro
- Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Lauren B Carrington
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia-Africa Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Iqbal R F Elyazar
- Eijkman Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Adam J Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Stefan Flasche
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - David M Pigott
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - W John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Simon I Hay
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Donald S Shepard
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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Guzzetta G, Minosse C, Pisapia R, Giombini E, Mammone A, Vairo F, Garbuglia AR, Scognamiglio P, Capobianchi MR, Merler S, Ippolito G, Lanini S. Household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large HAV outbreak in Lazio, Italy, 2016-2017. Epidemics 2019; 29:100351. [PMID: 31326355 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Revised: 05/13/2019] [Accepted: 06/05/2019] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
A major outbreak of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) has swept through Europe between mid-2016 and 2017, mainly within the community of men who have sex with men (MSM). Over the same period, about 1000 outbreak-related cases of acute Hepatitis A (AHA) were recorded in Lazio region, Italy. We calibrated a Bayesian model to reconstruct likely transmission events within all 44 households where multiple infections were recorded, representing a total of 103 cases from the HAV outbreak in Lazio. Based on information on the observed times of symptom onset, we estimated the probability distribution function of the HAV generation time and used it to compute the effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers for the considered outbreak from the overall epidemic curve (N = 998 cases). We estimated a mean generation time of 30.2 days (95%CI: 25.2-33.0) and an effective reproduction number of about 1.63 (95% CI: 1.35-1.94). Transmissibility peaked in January 2017, shortly before targeted awareness and vaccination campaigns were put in place by health authorities; however, transmission remained above the epidemic threshold until June 2017. Within households, children (0-15) and young adults (16-30) infected preferentially individuals of the same age class, whereas transmission within older age groups was substantially homogeneous. These results suggest that the implemented interventions were able to slow down HAV transmission, but not to bring it rapidly to a halt. According to our estimates of the HAV transmissibility, about 50% of the at-risk persons should be immunized to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. Our results also indicate spillover from community transmission to household members, suggesting the opportunity of vaccinating household contacts of cases to prevent further spread of the epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Guzzetta
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler, via Sommarive 18, Povo (Trento) 38123, Italy.
| | - Claudia Minosse
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Raffaella Pisapia
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Emanuela Giombini
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Alessia Mammone
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Francesco Vairo
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Anna Rosa Garbuglia
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Paola Scognamiglio
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Maria Rosaria Capobianchi
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler, via Sommarive 18, Povo (Trento) 38123, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Ippolito
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
| | - Simone Lanini
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani - IRCSS, via Portuense 292, Rome 00149, Italy
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31
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Marini G, Guzzetta G, Marques Toledo CA, Teixeira M, Rosà R, Merler S. Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil. PLoS Comput Biol 2019; 15:e1006831. [PMID: 30849074 PMCID: PMC6426269 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2018] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Management of vector population is a commonly used method for mitigating transmission of mosquito-borne infections, but quantitative information on its practical public health impact is scarce. We study the effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in public spaces for preventing secondary dengue virus (DENV) cases in Porto Alegre, a non-endemic metropolitan area in Brazil. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on detailed entomological, epidemiological and population data, accounting for the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and humans in the study area and spatial transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated against the distribution of DENV cluster sizes previously estimated from the same geographical setting. We estimated a ULV-induced mortality of 40% for mosquitoes and found that the implemented control protocol avoided about 24% of symptomatic cases occurred in the area throughout the 2015-2016 epidemic season. Increasing the radius of treatment or the mortality of mosquitoes by treating gardens and/or indoor premises would greatly improve the result of control, but trade-offs with respect to increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed. We found a moderate effectiveness for ULV-spraying in public areas, mainly due to the limited ability of this strategy in effectively controlling the vector population. These results can be used to support the design of control strategies in low-incidence, non-endemic settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare, Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Cecilia A. Marques Toledo
- Departamento de Bioquimica e Imunologia do Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Mauro Teixeira
- Departamento de Bioquimica e Imunologia do Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare, Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
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