Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape

Expanding Understanding of Urban Rift Valley Fever Risk and Associated Vector Ecology at Slaughterhouses in Kisumu, Kenya

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an adaptable arbovirus that can be transmitted by a wide variety of arthropods. Widespread urban transmission of RVFV has not yet occurred, but peri-urban outbreaks of RVFV have recently been documented in East Africa. We previously reported low-level exposure in urban communities and highlighted the risk of introduction via live animal influx. We deployed a slaughtered animal testing framework in response to an early warning system at two urban slaughterhouses and tested animals entering the meat value chain for anti-RVFV IgG and IgM antibodies. We simultaneously trapped mosquitoes for RVFV and bloodmeal testing. Out of 923 animals tested, an 8.5% IgG seroprevalence was identified but no evidence of recent livestock exposure was detected. Mosquito species abundance varied greatly by slaughterhouse site, which explained 52% of the variance in blood meals. We captured many Culex spp., a known RVFV amplifying vector, at one of the sites (p < 0.001), and this species had the most diverse blood meals. No mosquito pools tested positive for RVFV antigen using a rapid VecTOR test. These results expand understanding of potential RVF urban disease ecology, and highlight that slaughterhouses are key locations for future surveillance, modelling, and monitoring efforts.

Evidence of Eretmapodites subsimplicipes and Aedes albopictus as competent vectors for Rift Valley fever virus transmission in Mayotte

Rift Valley fever (RVF) recently re-emerged in Mayotte. We described, for the first time, that the mosquito species Eretmapodites subsimplicipes, a highly abundant species in Mayotte, is a competent vector for the transmission of RVF virus using three distinct populations native to Mayotte. We also showed that Aedes albopictus specimens are able to transmit RVF virus (RVFV) as previously observed in mosquito populations of other countries emphasizing the need of the increase vigilance for this highly invasive species of global distribution. Altogether, these results underline the epidemiological importance of both species for RVFV transmission in Mayotte and contribute to better understand the RVF epidemiological cycle and help to implement efficient prevention measures.

Reconstructing Mayotte 2018-19 Rift Valley Fever outbreak in humans by combining serological and surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis that affects large parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to humans through contacts with infected animals, animal products, mosquito bites or aerosols. Its pathogenesis in humans ranges from asymptomatic forms to potentially deadly haemorrhagic fevers, and the true burden of human infections during outbreaks is generally unknown.

METHODS

We build a model fitted to both passive surveillance data and serological data collected throughout a RVF epidemic that occurred in Mayotte Island in 2018-2019.

RESULTS

We estimate that RVFV infected 10,797 (95% CrI 4,728-16,127) people aged ≥15 years old in Mayotte during the entire outbreak, among which only 1.2% (0.67%-2.2%) were reported to the syndromic surveillance system. RVFV IgG seroprevalence in people ≥15 years old was estimated to increase from 5.5% (3.6%-7.7%) before the outbreak to 12.9% (10.4%-16.3%) thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a large part of RVFV infected people present subclinical forms of the disease and/or do not reach medical care that could lead to their detection by the surveillance system. This may threaten the implementation of exhaustive RVF surveillance and adequate control programs in affected countries.

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To date, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors, and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. Here, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, presenting overall 49 different models with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied, or grey, depending on whether they represented a specific geographical context or not, and whether they relied on an extensive use of data. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models are used differently yet meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, such as the role of animal mobility, as well as the relative contributions of host and vector species to transmission. Importantly, we noted a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to important progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be filled, and modelers need to improve their code accessibility.