Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

Resurgence of Dengue Virus Serotype 2: Findings from the 2023 Bangladesh Outbreak

Bangladesh experienced the largest and deadliest dengue outbreak in 2023, after the virus had reappeared in the country 2 decades earlier. A total of 1,705 people died in Bangladesh, representing the highest case fatality rate (0.5%) due to dengue in the world for that year. The severity of dengue infection is to some extent related to the emergence of new circulating serotypes. To identify the possible predominant serotype in 2023, the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-based identification technique was used on stored serum samples of suspected dengue patients during the period between July and December 2023. The overall result of molecular serotyping showed that dengue virus (DENV-2) reappeared as the predominant serotype (74.1%), followed by a moderate number of samples with DENV-1 (19.8%) and DENV-3 (6.1%), in 2023. However, DENV-1 was found to be dominant in a few rural areas of Cox's Bazar districts. During the 2019 outbreak, DENV-3 was the dominant serotype, which seemed to be replaced by the DENV-2 serotype; this may have impacted the increased case fatality in 2023.

The global incidence and trends of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021

Background

Flavivirus pose a continued threat to global health, yet their worldwide burden and trends remain poorly quantified. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national incidence of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.

Methods

Data on the number and rate of incidence for the three common flavivirus infection in 204 countries and territories were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend during 2011-2016, 2016-2019, and 2019-2021, respectively.

Results

In 2021, an estimated 59,220,428 individuals were infected globally, comprising 58,964,185 cases of dengue, 86,509 cases of yellow fever, and 169,734 cases of Zika virus infection. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of the three common flavivirus infections increased by an annual average of 5.08% (95% CI 4.12 to 6.05) globally from 2011 to 2016, whereas decreased by an annual average of -8.37% (95% CI -12.46 to -4.08) per year between 2016 to 2019. The ASIR remained stable during 2019-2021, with an average change of 0.69% (95% CI -0.96 to 2.37) per year globally for the three common flavivirus infections. Regionally, the burden of the three common flavivirus infections was primarily concentrated in those regions with middle income, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Latin America. Additionally, at the country level, there was an inverted "U" relationship between the SDI level and the ASI. Notably, an increase in the average age of infected cases has been observed worldwide, particularly in higher-income regions.

Conclusion

Flavivirus infections are an expanding public health concern worldwide, with considerable regional and demographic variation in the incidence. Policymakers and healthcare providers must stay vigilant regarding the impact of COVID-19 and other environmental factors on the risk of flavivirus infection and be prepared for potential future outbreaks.

The Role of TIM-1 and CD300a in Zika Virus Infection Investigated with Cell-Based Electrical Impedance

Orthoflaviviruses cause a major threat to global public health, and no antiviral treatment is available yet. Zika virus (ZIKV) entry, together with many other viruses, is known to be enhanced by phosphatidylserine (PS) receptors such as T-cell immunoglobulin mucin domain protein 1 (TIM-1). In this study, we demonstrate for the first time, using cell-based electrical impedance (CEI) biosensing, that ZIKV entry is also enhanced by expression of CD300a, another PS receptor. Furthermore, inhibiting CD300a in immature monocyte-derived dendritic cells partially but significantly inhibits ZIKV replication. As we have previously demonstrated that CEI is a useful tool to study Orthoflavivirus infection in real time, we now use this technology to determine how these PS receptors influence the kinetics of in vitro ZIKV infection. Results show that ZIKV entry is highly sensitive to minor changes in TIM-1 expression, both after overexpression of TIM-1 in infection-resistant HEK293T cells, as well as after partial knockout of TIM-1 in susceptible A549 cells. These results are confirmed by quantification of viral copy number and viral infectivity, demonstrating that CEI is highly suited to study and compare virus-host interactions. Overall, the results presented here demonstrate the potential of targeting this universal viral entry pathway.

A comprehensive review on targeting cluster of differentiation: An attractive strategy for inhibiting viruses through host proteins

Viral infections continue to pose a significant global public health threat. Targeting host proteins, such as cluster of differentiation (CD) macromolecules, may offer a promising alternative approach to developing antiviral treatments. CDs are cell-surface biological macromolecules mainly expressed on leukocytes that viruses can use to enter cells, thereby evading immune detection and promoting their replication. The manipulation of CDs by viruses may represent an effective and clever means of survival through the prolonged co-evolution of hosts and viruses. Targeting of CDs is anticipated to hinder the invasion of related viruses, modulate the body's immune system, and diminish the incidence of subsequent inflammation. They have become crucial for biomedical diagnosis, and some have been used as valuable tools for resisting viral infections. However, a summary of the structures and functions of CDs involved in viral infection is currently lacking. The development of drugs targeting these biological macromolecules is restricted both in terms of their availability and the number of compounds currently identified. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of the critical role of CD proteins in virus invasion and a list of relevant targeted antiviral agents, which will serve as a valuable reference for future research in this field.

In-vitro assessment of cutaneous immune responses to aedes mosquito salivary gland extract and dengue virus in Cambodian individuals

Dengue virus (DENV) poses a global health threat, affecting millions individuals annually with no specific therapy and limited vaccines. Mosquitoes, mainly Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus worldwide, transmit DENV through their saliva during blood meals. In this study, we aimed to understand how Aedes mosquito saliva modulate skin immune responses during DENV infection in individuals living in mosquito-endemic regions. To accomplish this, we dissociated skin cells from Cambodian volunteers and incubated them with salivary gland extract (SGE) from three different mosquito strains: Ae. aegypti USDA strain, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus wild type (WT) in the presence/absence of DENV. We observed notable alterations in skin immune cell phenotypes subsequent to exposure to Aedes salivary gland extract (SGE). Specifically, exposure lead to an increase in the frequency of macrophages expressing chemokine receptor CCR2, and neutrophils expressing CD69. Additionally, we noted a substantial increase in the percentage of macrophages that became infected with DENV in the presence of Aedes SGE. Differences in cellular responses were observed when Aedes SGE of three distinct mosquito strains were compared. Our findings deepen the understanding of mosquito saliva's role in DENV infection and skin immune responses in individuals regularly exposed to mosquito bites. This study provides insights into skin immune cell dynamics that could guide strategies to mitigate DENV transmission and other arbovirus diseases.

Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries

Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.

Unraveling varying spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and associated exposure-response relationships with environmental variables in Southeast Asian countries before and during COVID-19

The enforcement of COVID-19 interventions by diverse governmental bodies, coupled with the indirect impact of COVID-19 on short-term environmental changes (e.g. plant shutdowns lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions), influences the dengue vector. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission and generate insights to guide more targeted prevention measures. We aim to compare dengue transmission patterns and the exposure-response relationship of environmental variables and dengue incidence in the pre- and during-COVID-19 to identify variations and assess the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission. We initially visualized the overall trend of dengue transmission from 2012-2022, then conducted two quantitative analyses to compare dengue transmission pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during-COVID-19 (2020-2022). These analyses included time series analysis to assess dengue seasonality, and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to quantify the exposure-response relationship between environmental variables and dengue incidence. We observed that all subregions in Thailand exhibited remarkable synchrony with a similar annual trend except 2021. Cyclic and seasonal patterns of dengue remained consistent pre- and during-COVID-19. Monthly dengue incidence in three countries varied significantly. Singapore witnessed a notable surge during-COVID-19, particularly from May to August, with cases multiplying several times compared to pre-COVID-19, while seasonality of Malaysia weakened. Exposure-response relationships of dengue and environmental variables show varying degrees of change, notably in Northern Thailand, where the peak relative risk for the maximum temperature-dengue relationship rose from about 3 to 17, and the max RR of overall cumulative association 0-3 months of relative humidity increased from around 5 to 55. Our study is the first to compare dengue transmission patterns and their relationship with environmental variables before and during COVID-19, showing that COVID-19 has affected dengue transmission at both the national and regional level, and has altered the exposure-response relationship between dengue and the environment.

Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia

Climate change poses significant threats to public health, with dengue representing a growing concern due to its high existing burden and sensitivity to climatic conditions. Yet, the quantitative impacts of temperature warming on dengue, both in the past and in the future, remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantify how dengue responds to climatic fluctuations, and use this inferred temperature response to estimate the impacts of historical warming and forecast trends under future climate change scenarios. To estimate the causal impact of temperature on the spread of dengue in the Americas and Asia, we assembled a dataset encompassing nearly 1.5 million dengue incidence records from 21 countries. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between temperature and dengue incidence with the largest marginal effects at lower temperatures (around 15°C), peak incidence at 27.8°C (95% CI: 27.3 - 28.2°C), and subsequent declines at higher temperatures. Our findings indicate that historical climate change has already increased dengue incidence 18% (12 - 25%) in the study region, and projections suggest a potential increase of 40% (17 - 76) to 57% (33 - 107%) by mid-century depending on the climate scenario, with some areas seeing up to 200% increases. Notably, our models suggest that lower emissions scenarios would substantially reduce the warming-driven increase in dengue burden. Together, these insights contribute to the broader understanding of how long-term climate patterns influence dengue, providing a valuable foundation for public health planning and the development of strategies to mitigate future risks due to climate change.