Lake heatwaves under climate change

Spatial and temporal effects of heat waves on the diversity of European stream invertebrate communities

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase with climate change. However, assessments of the response of biological communities to heat waves are often inconclusive. We aimed to assess the responses in abundance, taxonomic and functional diversity indices of stream invertebrate communities to heat waves using long-term monitoring data collected across Europe. We quantified the heat waves' magnitude, analyzed the spatial (i.e., long-term mean) and temporal (anomaly around the long-term mean) components of variation in the magnitude of heat waves, and their interaction with anthropogenic stressors (ecological quality and land cover). For the spatial component of variation, we found a negative association of the community indices to the increasing magnitude of heat waves. Sites undergoing heat waves of higher magnitude showed fewer species and lower trait diversity compared with sites experiencing lower magnitude heat waves. However, we could not detect an immediate temporal response of the communities to heat waves (i.e., the temporal component). Furthermore, we found that the effects of heat waves interacted with the ecological quality of the streams and their surrounding land cover. Diversity declined with increasing heat waves' magnitude in streams with higher ecological quality or surrounded by forest, which may be due to a higher proportion of sensitive species in the community. Heat waves' impacts on diversity were also exacerbated by increasing urban cover. The interaction between heat waves' magnitude and anthropogenic stressors suggests that the effects of extreme events can compromise the recovery of communities. Further, the predicted increase in heat waves will likely have long-term effects on stream invertebrate communities that are currently undetected.

Prediction of potential invasion of two weeds of the genus Avena in Asia under climate change based on Maxent

Avena sterilis L. (A. sterilis) and Avena ludoviciana Dur. (A. ludoviciana) are extremely invasive weeds with strong competitive ability and multiple transmission routes. Both species can invade a variety of dryland crops, including wheat, corn, and beans. Asia, as the world's major food-producing continent, will experience significant losses to agricultural production if it is invaded by these weeds on a large scale. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to map the distribution of suitable habitats of the two species in Asia under climate change conditions. The constructed model comprised four levels, with a total of 25 index-level indicator factors used to evaluate the invasion risk of the two species. The results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats for both Avena species was highly dependent on precipitation and temperature. Under climate warming conditions, although overall the total suitable area is predicted to decrease compared to the current period, there are still moderately or highly suitable areas. Asian countries need to provide early warning for areas with significant increases in moderate and highly suitable zones for these two species of weeds under the background of climate change. If there is already an invaded area or if the suitability of the original area is increased, this should be closely monitored, and control measures should be taken to prevent further spread and deterioration.

Insights from single-strain and mixed culture experiments on the effects of heatwaves on freshwater flagellates

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves driven by climate change significantly impact microbial communities in freshwater habitats, particularly eukaryotic microorganisms. Heterotrophic nanoflagellates are important bacterivorous grazers and play a crucial role in aquatic food webs, influencing the morphological and taxonomic structure of bacterial communities. This study investigates the responses of three flagellate taxa to heatwave conditions through single-strain and mixed culture experiments, highlighting the impact of both biotic and abiotic factors on functional redundancy between morphologically similar protist species under thermal stress. Our results indicate that temperature can significantly impact growth and community composition. However, density-dependent factors also had a significant impact. In sum, stabilizing effects due to functional redundancy may be pronounced as long as density-dependent factors play a minor role and can be overshadowed when flagellate abundances increase.

Combined effects of heat waves and pesticide pollution on zooplankton communities: Does the timing of stressor matter?

Most studies assessing the combined effects of chemical and non-chemical stressors on aquatic ecosystems have been based on synchronous stressor applications. However, asynchronous exposure scenarios may be more common in nature, particularly for pulsed stressors such as heatwaves and pesticide concentration peaks. In this study, we investigated the single and combined effects of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and a heatwave (HW) on a zooplankton community representative of a Mediterranean coastal wetland using synchronous (CPF+HW) and asynchronous (HW→CPF and CPF→HW) exposure scenarios. CPF was applied at a concentration of 0.8 µg/L (single pulse), and the HW was simulated by a temperature increase of 8°C above the control temperature (20°C) for 7 days in freshwater microcosms. The interaction between stressors in synchrony resulted in synergistic effects at the population level (Daphnia magna) and additive at the community level. The partial reduction of sensitive species resulted in an abundance increase of competing species that were more tolerant to the evaluated stressors (e.g. Moina sp.). The asynchronous exposure scenarios resulted in a similar abundance decline of sensitive populations as compared to the synchronous one; however, the timing of stressor resulted in different responses in the long term. In the HW→CPF treatment, the D. magna population recovered at least one month faster than in the CPF+HW treatment, probably due to survival selection and cross-tolerance mechanisms. In the CPF→HW treatment, the effects lasted longer than in the CPF+HW, and the population did not recover within the experimental period, most likely due to the energetic costs of detoxification and effects on internal damage recovery. The different timing and magnitude of indirect effects among the tested asynchronous scenarios resulted in more severe effects on the structure of the zooplankton community in the CPF→HW treatment. Our study highlights the relevance of considering the order of stressors to predict the long-term effects of chemicals and heatwaves both at the population and community levels.

Characteristics of river heatwaves in the Vistula River basin, Europe

Rivers worldwide are warming due to the impact of climate change and human interventions. This study investigated river heatwaves in the Vistula River Basin, one of the largest river systems in Europe using long-term observed daily river water temperatures from the past 30 years (1991-2020). The results showed that river heatwaves are increased in frequency and intensity in the Vistula River Basin. The total number of river heatwaves showed clear increasing trend with an average rate of 1.400 times/decade, the duration of river heatwaves increased at an average rate of 14.506 days/decade, and the cumulative intensity of river heatwaves increased at an average rate of 53.169 °C/decade. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was also employed, showing statistically significant increasing trends in the total number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves for all rivers, including the main watercourse of the Vistula River and its tributaries, with few exceptions. Air temperature is the major controller of river heatwaves for each hydrological station, and with the increase of air temperatures, river heatwaves will increase in frequency and intensity. Another impacting factor is flow, and with the increase of flow, river heatwaves tend to decrease in number, duration and intensity. The results suggested that mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the effect of climate change on river systems.

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.

Combined stress of an insecticide and heatwaves or elevated temperature induce community and food web effects in a Mediterranean freshwater ecosystem

Ongoing global climate change will shift nature towards Anthropocene's unprecedented conditions by increasing average temperatures and the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heatwaves. While such climatic changes pose an increased threat for freshwater ecosystems, other stressors like pesticides may interact with warming and lead to unpredictable effects. Studies that examine the underpinned mechanisms of multiple stressor effects are scarce and often lack environmental realism. Here, we conducted a multiple stressors experiment using outdoor freshwater mesocosms with natural assemblages of macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, macrophytes, and microbes. The effects of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid (1 µg/L) were investigated in combination with three temperature scenarios representing ambient, elevated temperatures (+4 °C), and heatwaves (+0 to 8 °C), the latter two having similar energy input. We found similar imidacloprid dissipation patterns for all temperature treatments with lowest average dissipation half-lives under both warming scenarios (DT50: 3 days) and highest under ambient temperatures (DT50: 4 days) throughout the experiment. Amongst all communities, only the zooplankton community was significantly affected by the combined treatments. This community demonstrated low chemical sensitivity with lagged and significant negative imidacloprid effects only for cyclopoids. Heatwaves caused early and long-lasting significant effects on the zooplankton community as compared to elevated temperatures, with Polyarthra, Daphnia longispina, Lecanidae, and cyclopoids being the most negatively affected taxa, whereas Ceriodaphnia and nauplii showed positive responses to temperature. Community recovery from imidacloprid stress was slower under heatwaves, suggesting temperature-enhanced toxicity. Finally, microbial and macrofauna litter degradation were significantly enhanced by temperature, whereas the latter was also negatively affected by imidacloprid. A structural equation model depicted cascading food web effects of both stressors with stronger relationships and significant negative stressor effects at higher than at lower trophic levels. Our study highlights the threat of a series of heatwaves compared to elevated temperatures for imidacloprid-stressed freshwaters.

Temperature and biodiversity influence community stability differently in birds and fishes

Determining the factors that affect community stability is crucial to understanding the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of global warming. We investigated how four temperature components (that is, median, variability, trend and extremes) affected diversity-synchrony-stability relationships for 1,246 bird and 580 fish communities from temperate regions. We hypothesized a stabilizing effect on the community if the variation in species' response to changing median temperature decreases overall community synchrony (hypothesis H1) and if temperature extremes reduce interspecific synchrony at extreme abundances due to variation in species' thermal tolerance limits (hypothesis H2). We found support for H1 in fish and for H2 in bird communities. Here we showed that the abiotic components (that is, the median, variability, trend and extremes of temperature) had more indirect effects on community stability, predominantly by affecting the biotic components (that is, diversity, synchrony). Considering various temperature components' direct as well as indirect impacts on stability for terrestrial versus aquatic communities will improve our mechanistic understanding of biodiversity change in response to global climatic stressors.

Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability

Planetary boundaries represent thresholds in major Earth system processes that are sensitive to human activity and control global-scale habitability and stability. These processes are interconnected such that movement of one planetary boundary process can alter the likelihood of crossing other boundaries. Here we argue that the observed deoxygenation of the Earth's freshwater and marine ecosystems represents an additional planetary boundary process that is critical to the integrity of Earth's ecological and social systems, and both regulates and responds to ongoing changes in other planetary boundary processes. Research on the rapid and ongoing deoxygenation of Earth's aquatic habitats indicates that relevant, critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other planetary boundary processes. Concerted global monitoring, research and policy efforts are needed to address the challenges brought on by rapid deoxygenation, and the expansion of the planetary boundaries framework to include deoxygenation as a boundary helps to focus those efforts.

Satellite Tracking Reveals the Speed Up of the Lacustrine Algal Bloom Drift in Response to Climate Change

Satellite evidence indicates a global increase in lacustrine algal blooms. These blooms can drift with winds, resulting in significant changes of the algal biomass spatial distribution, which is crucial in bloom formation. However, the lack of long-term, large-scale observational data has limited our understanding of bloom drift. Here, we have developed a novel method to track the drift using multi-source remote sensing satellites and presented a comprehensive bloom drift data set for four typical lakes: Lake Taihu (China, 2011-2021), Lake Chaohu (China, 2011-2020), Lake Dianchi (China, 2003-2021), and Lake Erie (North America, 2003-2021). We found that blooms closer to the water surface tend to drift faster. Higher temperatures and lower wind speeds bring blooms closer to the water surface, therefore accelerating drift and increasing biomass transportation. Under ongoing climate change, algal blooms are increasingly likely to spread over larger areas and accumulate in downwind waters, thereby posing a heightened risk to water resources. Our research greatly improves the understanding of algal bloom dynamics and provides new insights into the driving factors behind the global expansion of algal blooms. Our bloom-drift-tracking methodology also paves the way for the development of high-precision algal bloom prediction models.

Drinking water safety improvement and future challenge of lakes and reservoirs

To meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 6.1, China has undertaken significant initiatives to address the uneven distribution of water resources and to enhance water quality. Since 2000, China has invested heavily in the water infrastructure of numerous reservoirs, with a total storage capacity increase of 4.704 × 1011 m3 (an increase of 90.8%). These reservoirs have significantly enhanced the available freshwater resources for drinking water. Concurrently, efforts to improve water quality in lakes and reservoirs, facilitated by nationwide water quality monitoring, have been successful. As a result, an increasing lakes and reservoirs are designated as centralized drinking water sources (CDWSs) in China. Among the 3,441 CDWSs across all provinces, 40.8% are sourced from lakes and reservoirs, 32.6% from rivers, and 26.6% from groundwater in 2023. Notably, from 2016 to 2023, the percentage of lakes and reservoirs categorized as CDWSs has increased consistently across all 29 provinces. This progress has enabled 561.4 million urban residents to access improved drinking water sources in 2022, compared to 303.4 million in 2004. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of water infrastructure construction and water quality improvement jointly promoting lakes and reservoirs as vital drinking water sources. Nevertheless, the nationwide occurrence of algal blooms has surged by 113.7% from the 2000s to the 2010s , which is a considerable challenge to drinking water safety. Fortunately, algal blooms have been markedly alleviated in past four years. However, it is still crucial to acknowledge that lakes and reservoirs face the challenges of algal blooms, and associated toxic microcystin and odor compounds.

Climate warming promotes collateral antibiotic resistance development in cyanobacteria

Both cyanobacterial blooms and antibiotic resistance have aggravated worldwide and posed a great threat to public health in recent years. As a significant source and reservoir of water environmental resistome, cyanobacteria exhibit confusing discrepancy between their reduced susceptibility and their chronic exposure to antibiotic mixtures at sub-inhibitory concentrations. How the increasing temperature affects the adaptive evolution of cyanobacteria-associated antibiotic resistance in response to low-level antibiotic combinations under climate change remains unclear. Here we profiled the antibiotic interaction and collateral susceptibility networks among 33 commonly detected antibiotics in 600 cyanobacterial strains isolated from 50 sites across four eutrophicated lakes in China. Cyanobacteria-associated antibiotic resistance level was found positively correlated to antibiotic heterogeneity across all sites. Among 528 antibiotic combinations, antagonism was observed for 62 % interactions and highly conserved within cyanobacterial species. Collateral resistance was detected in 78.5 % of pairwise antibiotic interaction, leading to a widened or shifted upwards mutant selection window for increased opportunity of acquiring second-step mutations. We quantified the interactive promoting effect of collateral resistance and increasing temperature on the evolution of both phenotypic and genotypic cyanobacteria-associated resistance under chronic exposure to environmental level of antibiotic combinations. With temperature increasing from 16 °C to 36 °C, the evolvability index and genotypic resistance level increased by 1.25 - 2.5 folds and 3 - 295 folds in the collateral-resistance-informed lineages, respectively. Emergence of resistance mutation pioneered by tolerance, which was jointly driven by mutation rate and persister fraction, was found to be accelerated by increased temperature and antibiotic switching rate. Our findings provided mechanic insights into the boosting effect of climate warming on the emergence and development of cyanobacteria-associated resistance against collateral antibiotic phenotypes.

Multivariate extremes in lakes

Extreme within-lake conditions have the potential to exert detrimental effects on lakes. Here we use satellite observations to investigate how the occurrence of multiple types of extremes, notably algal blooms, lake heatwaves, and low lake levels, have varied in 2724 lakes since the 1980s. Our study, which focuses on bloom-affected lakes, suggests that 75% of studied lakes have experienced a concurrent increase in at least two of the extremes considered (27% defined as having a notable increase), with 25% experiencing an increase in frequency of all three extremes (5% had a notable increase). The greatest increases in the frequency of these extremes were found in regions that have experienced increases in agricultural fertilizer use, lake warming, and a decline in water availability. As extremes in lakes become more common, understanding their impacts must be a primary focus of future studies and they must be carefully considered in future risk assessments.

An optimized NARX-based model for predicting thermal dynamics and heatwaves in rivers

The thermal dynamics within river ecosystems represent critical areas of study due to their profound impact on overall aquatic health. With the rising prevalence of heatwaves in rivers, a consequence of climate change, it is imperative to deepen our understanding through comprehensive research efforts. Despite this urgency, there remains a noticeable dearth in studies aimed at refining modeling techniques to precisely characterize the duration and intensity of these events. In response to this gap, the present study endeavors to augment the NARX-based model (Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs) to enhance predictive capabilities regarding thermal dynamics and river heatwaves. The optimized NARX-based model included the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm, which allows fine-tuning the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm to improve the NARX calibration process. A long-term dataset spanning from 1991 to 2021, encompassing 18 rivers across the expansive Vistula River Basin, one of Europe's largest river systems, was employed for this study. The performance of the BO-NARX-BR model was compared with that of the widely utilized air2stream model for modeling river water temperature (RWT). The results unequivocally demonstrated the superior performance of the NARX-based model across the calibration and validation periods, and four heatwave years. In the context of river heatwaves, the study revealed an escalating frequency and intensity within the Vistula River Basin. Furthermore, the NARX-based model exhibited superior proficiency in characterizing river heatwaves compared to the air2stream model. This study, as the inaugural examination of river heatwaves in Poland and one of the few globally, furnishes crucial reference points for subsequent research endeavors on this phenomenon.

Warming temperatures exacerbate effects of microplastics in a widespread zooplankton species

The emergence of microplastics as a global contaminant of concern has coincided with climate change induced temperature warming in aquatic ecosystems. Warmer temperatures have been previously demonstrated to increase the toxicity of certain contaminants, but it is currently unclear if microplastics are similarly affected by temperature. As aquatic organisms simultaneously face microplastic pollution and both increasing and variable temperatures, understanding how temperature affects microplastic toxicity is pertinent in this era of human-induced global change. In this study, we investigate the effects of environmentally relevant microplastic exposure to Daphnia pulex survival, reproduction, and growth at three different temperatures. To simulate an environmentally relevant exposure scenario, we created microplastics with physicochemical characteristics often detected in nature, and exposed organisms to concentrations close to values reported in inland waters and 1-2 orders of magnitude higher. The three temperatures tested in this experiment included 12 °C, 20 °C, and 24 °C, to simulate cool/springtime, current, and warming scenarios. We found the highest concentration of microplastics significantly impacted survival and total offspring compared to the control at 20 °C and 24 °C, but not at 12 °C. The adverse effect of high microplastic concentrations on total offspring at warmer temperatures was driven by the high mortality of the juveniles. We observed no effect of microplastics on time to first reproduction or average growth rate at any temperature. Warmer temperatures exacerbated microplastic toxicity, although only for concentrations of microplastics not currently observed in nature, but these concentrations are possible in pollution hotspots, through pulses pollution events or future worsening environmental contamination. The results of our study illustrate the continued need to further investigate climate change related co-stressors such as warming temperatures in microplastic and pollution ecology, through environmentally realistic exposure scenarios.

Summer heatwaves promote harmful algal blooms in the Fuchunjiang Reservoir, an important drinking water source

Extensive outbreaks of harmful algal blooms (HABs) occurred in the Fuchunjiang Reservoir in 2022, a crucial urban drinking water source, coinciding with extreme summer heatwaves. We hypothesize that these heatwaves contributed to HABs formation and expansion. Leveraging Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data, we employed clustering and machine learning methods to quantify the HABs distribution and area. Concurrent meteorological and water quality data aided in uncovering the effects of heatwave on HABs. When applying different methods to extract HABs from remote sensing images, random forest (RF) analyses indicated accuracies of 99.3% and 99.8% for Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data, respectively, while classification and regression tree (CART) analyses indicated 99.1% and 99.7% accuracies, respectively. Support vector machine (SVM) exhibited lower accuracies (83.5% and 97.4%). Thus RF, given its smaller differences between satellites and high accuracy, was selected for further analysis. Both satellites detected extensive HABs in 2022, with Sentinel-2 recording a peak area of 24.13 km2 (44.6% of cloud-free water area) on August 11, 2022. Increasing trends with amplified durations were observed for summer heatwaves in Jiande and Tonglu around the Fuchunjiang Reservoir. Notably, these areas experienced extreme heatwaves for 63 and 58 days in 2022, respectively, more than double the 1980-2022 average. From June 1 to October 8, 2022, water temperature peaks significantly coincided with expansive HABs and elevated chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration from 4.8 μg/L to 119.2 μg/L during the summer heatwaves. Our findings indicated that the reservoir became more HAB-prone during heatwave events, escalating the drinking water safety risk. These results emphasize the challenges faced by reservoir managers in dealing with climate-induced extreme heatwaves and underscore the urgency for heightened attention from water source management departments.

An optical mechanism-based deep learning approach for deriving water trophic state of China's lakes from Landsat images

Widespread eutrophication has been considered as the most serious environment problems in the world. Given the critical roles of lakes in human society and serious negative effects of water eutrophication on lake ecosystems, it is thus fundamentally important to monitor and assess water trophic status of lakes. However, a reliable model for accurately estimating the trophic state index (TSI) of lakes across a large-scale region is still lacking due to their high complexity. Here, we proposed an optical mechanism-based deep learning approach to remotely estimate TSI of lakes based on Landsat images. The approach consists of two steps: (1) determining the optical indicators of TSI and modeling the relationship between them, and (2) developing an approach for remotely deriving the determined optical indicator from Landsat images. With a large number of in situ datasets measured from lakes (2804 samples from 88 lakes) across China with various optical properties, we trained and validated three machine learning methods including deep neural network (DNN), k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and random forest (RF) to model TSI with the optical indicators and TSI and derive the determined optical indicator from Landsat images. The results showed that (1) the total absorption coefficients of optically active constituents at 440 nm (at-w(440)) performs best in characterizing TSI, and (2) DNN outperforms other models in the inversion of both TSI and at-w(440). Overall, our proposed optical mechanism-based deep learning approach demonstrated a robust and satisfactory performance in assessing TSI using Landsat images (root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5.95, mean absolute error (MAE) = 4.81). This highlights its merit as a nationally-adopted method in lake water TSI estimation, enabling the convenience of the acquisition of water eutrophic information in large scale, thereby assisting us in managing lake ecology. Therefore, we assessed water TSI of 961 lakes (>10 km2) across China using the proposed approach. The resulting at-w(440) and TSI ranged from 0.01 m-1 to 31.42 m-1 and from 6 to 96, respectively. Of all these studied lakes, 96 lakes (11.40 %) were oligotrophic, 338 lakes were mesotrophic (40.14 %), 360 lakes were eutrophic (42.76 %), and 48 were hypertrophic (5.70 %) in 2020.

Intensification of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic, temperate lake caused by nitrogen, temperature, and CO2

Warmer temperatures can significantly increase the intensity of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) in eutrophic freshwater ecosystems. However, few studies have examined the effects of CO2 enrichment in tandem with elevated temperature and/or nutrients on cyanobacterial taxa in freshwater ecosystems. Here, we observed changes in the biomass of cyanobacteria, nutrients, pH, and carbonate chemistry over a two-year period in a shallow, eutrophic freshwater lake and performed experiments to examine the effects and co-effects of CO2, temperature, and nutrient enrichment on cyanobacterial and N2-fixing (diazotrophic) communities assessed via high throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA and nifH genes, respectively. During both years, there were significant CHABs (50-500 μg cyanobacterial chlorophyll-a L-1) and lake CO2 levels were undersaturated (≤300 μatm pCO2). NH4+ significantly increased the net growth rates of cyanobacteria as well as the biomass of the diazotrophic cyanobacterial order Nostocales under elevated and ambient CO2 conditions. In a fall experiment, the N2 fixation rates of Nostocales were significantly higher when populations were enriched with CO2 and P, relative to CO2-enriched populations that were not amended with P. During a summer experiment, N2 fixation rates increased significantly under N and CO2 - enriched conditions relative to N-enriched and ambient CO2 conditions. Nostocales dominated the diazotrophic communities of both experiments, achieving the highest relative abundance under CO2-enriched conditions when N was added in the first experiment and when CO2 and temperature were elevated in the second experiment, when N2 fixation rates also increased significantly. Collectively, this study indicates that N promotes cyanobacterial blooms including those formed by Dolichospermum and that the biomass and N2 fixation rates of diazotrophic cyanobacterial taxa may benefit from enhanced CO2 levels in eutrophic lakes.

Uptake and cellular responses of Microcystis aeruginosa to PFOS in various environmental conditions

Although PFOS has been banned as a persistent organic pollutant, it still exists in large quantities within the environment, thus impacting the health of aquatic ecosystems. Previous studies focused solely on high PFOS concentrations, disregarding the connection with environmental factors. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the PFOS effects on aquatic ecosystems amidst changing environmental conditions, this study investigated the cellular responses of Microcystis aeruginosa to varying PFOS concentrations under heatwave and nutrient stress conditions. The results showed that PFOS concentrations exceeding 5.0 µg/L had obvious effects on multiple physiological responses of M. aeruginosa, resulting in the suppression of algal cell growth and the induction of oxidative damage. However, PFOS concentration at levels below 20.0 µg/L has been found to enhance the growth of algal cells and trigger significant oxidative damage under heatwave conditions. Heatwave conditions could enhance the uptake of PFOS in algal cells, potentially leading to heightened algal growth when PFOS concentration was equal to or less than 5.0 µg/L. Conversely, deficiency or limitation of nitrogen and phosphorus significantly decreased algal abundance and chlorophyll content, inducing severe oxidative stress that could be mitigated by exposure to PFOS. This study holds significance in managing the impact of PFOS on algal growth across diverse environmental conditions.

Phase-transition materials derived photonic metamaterials for passively dynamic solar thermal and coldness harvesting

The rising need for energy to actively heat and cool human-made structures is contributing to the growing energy crisis and intensifying global warming. Consequently, there's a pressing need for a sustainable approach to temperature management that minimizes energy consumption and carbon emissions. The substantial temperature differences between the Sun (approximately 5800 K), Earth (around 300 K), and outer space (about 3 K) offer a unique opportunity for passive thermal regulation on a global scale. Recent research indicates the possibility of addressing this issue through various low-carbon, passive technologies such as solar heating and radiative cooling. However, their practical application is often limited to certain seasons and climatic regions due to their static and single-function nature in managing temperature. In this context, we introduce a concept of phase-change metamaterials that provide passive, dynamic, and adjustable radiative thermal control, suitable for widespread engineering applications. Our designed metafilm comprises a Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) layer infused with vanadium dioxide (VO2) nanoparticles, backed by a layer of broadband-reflective silver (Ag). This metafilm exhibits a self-adjusting solar absorptance, shifting from 0.96 to 0.25 at a pivotal temperature while maintaining a nearly constant thermal emittance. We can finely tune the metafilm's optical characteristics by altering the VO2 nanoparticle concentration and PDMS layer thickness. To demonstrate its efficacy in solar thermal management and radiative cooling, we simulate its temperature behavior under various weather conditions.

Regulatory network in heat stress response in parasitoid wasp focusing on Xap5 heat stress regulator

Insects are susceptible to elevated temperatures, resulting in impaired fertility, and shortened lifespan. This study investigated the genetic mechanisms underlying heat stress effects. We conducted RNA sequencing on Pteromalus puparum exposed to 25°C and 35°C, revealing transcriptional signatures. Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis uncovered heat stress-associated modules, forming a regulatory network of 113 genes. The network is naturally divided into two subgroups, one linked to acute heat stress, including heat shock proteins (HSPs), and the other to chronic heat stress, involving lipogenesis genes. We identified an Xap5 Heat Shock Regulator (XHSR) gene as a crucial network component, validated through RNA interference and quantitative PCR assays. XHSR knockdown reduced wasps' lifespan while directly inducing HSPs and mediating lipogenesis gene induction. CRISPR/Cas9-mediated knockout of the Drosophila XHSR homolog reduced mutants' survival, highlighting its conserved role. This research sheds light on thermal tolerance mechanisms, offering potential applications in pest control amid global warming.

The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China

Global lake ecosystems are subjected to an increased occurrence of heat extremes, yet their impact on lake warming remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed a hybrid physically-based/statistical model to assess the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature of 2260 lakes in China from 1985 to 2022. Our study indicates that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days/decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/ day·decade in China. The warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreases from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade after removing heat extremes. Heat extremes exert a considerable influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes. Given the important influence of heat extremes on the mean warming of lake surface waters, it is imperative that they are adequately accounted for in climate impact studies.

Impacts of sequential salinity and heat stress are recovery time-specific in freshwater crustacean, Daphnia pulicaria

Stressors can interact to affect animal fitness, but we have limited knowledge about how temporal variation in stressors may impact their combined effect. This limits our ability to predict the outcomes of pollutants and future dynamic environmental changes. Elevated salinity in freshwater ecosystems has been observed worldwide. Meanwhile, heatwaves have become more frequent and intensified as an outcome of climate change. These two stressors can jointly affect organisms; however, their interaction has rarely been explored in the context of freshwater ecosystems. We conducted lab experiments using Daphnia pulicaria, a key species in lakes, to investigate how elevated salinity and heatwave conditions collectively affect freshwater organisms. We also monitored the impacts of various recovery times between the two stressors. Daphnia physiological conditions (metabolic rate, Na+-K+-ATPase (NKA) activity, and lipid peroxidation level) and life history traits (survival, fecundity, and growth) in response to salt stress as well as mortality in heat treatment were examined. We found that Daphnia responded to elevated salinity by upregulating NKA activity and increasing metabolic rate, causing a high lipid peroxidation level. Survival, fecundity, and growth were all negatively affected by this stressor. These impacts on physiological conditions and life history traits persisted for a few days after the end of the exposure. Heat treatments caused mortality in Daphnia, which increased with rising temperature. Results also showed that individuals that experienced salt exposure were more susceptible to subsequent heat stress, but this effect decreased with increasing recovery time between stressors. Findings from this work suggest that the legacy effects from a previous stressor can reduce individual resistance to a subsequent stressor, adding great difficulties to the prediction of outcomes of multiple stressors. Our work also demonstrates that cross-tolerance/susceptibility and the associated mechanisms remain unclear, necessitating further investigation.

A novel optimized model based on NARX networks for predicting thermal anomalies in Polish lakes during heatwaves, with special reference to the 2018 heatwave

In 2018, Europe experienced one of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded. This extreme event's impact on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) in Polish lakes has largely remained unknown. In this study, the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on LSWT in 24 Polish lakes was investigated based on a long-term observed dataset (1987-2020). To capture the LSWT dynamics during the heatwave period and reproduce lake heatwaves, a novel BO-NARX-BR model was developed and evaluated. This model combines the capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network, the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm for optimizing the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm for the NARX training. The results showed that from April to October 2018, the mean and maximum LSWTs were 2.35 and 3.38 °C warmer than the base-period average (1987-2010) due to the impact of the extreme heatwave. The NARX-based model outperformed another widely used model called air2water in calibration and validation periods. The results also revealed that the BO-NARX-BR model produced significantly better results in capturing lake heatwaves, with computed duration and intensity of lake heatwaves close to the in-situ data. Additionally, LSWT anomaly significantly impacted the duration and intensity of heatwaves that occurred in lakes. Extreme climatic events are gaining increasing importance for the functioning of various elements of the hydrosphere. Such a situation encourages the search for more accurate methods and tools for their prediction. The model applied in the paper corresponds with these assumptions, and its good performance allows for its adaptation to lakes in other regions.

Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Model to Assess Thermal Stress

Temperature is a crucial environmental factor affecting the distribution and performance of ectothermic organisms. This study introduces a new temperature damage model to interpret their thermal stress. Inspired by the ecotoxicological damage model in the General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) framework, the temperature damage model assumes that damage depends on the balance between temperature-dependent accumulation and constant repair. Mortality due to temperature stress is driven by the damage level exceeding a threshold. Model calibration showed a good agreement with the measured survival of Gammarus pulex exposed to different constant temperatures. Further, model simulations, including constant temperatures, daily temperature fluctuations, and heatwaves, demonstrated the model's ability to predict temperature effects for various environmental scenarios. With this, the present study contributes to the mechanistic understanding of temperature as a single stressor while facilitating the incorporation of temperature as an additional stressor alongside chemicals in mechanistic multistressor effect models.

Effects of heatwave events on the seagrass-dwelling crustacean Pandalus latirostris in a subarctic lagoon

Heatwaves often cause mass mortality of organisms in seagrass areas, and they eventually alter some ecological functions of seagrass ecosystems. In subarctic regions, however, the effects of heatwaves on seagrass areas are still unclear. In a subarctic lagoon of northern Japan, we examined the effects of heatwaves on the Hokkai shrimp, Pandalus latirostris, a commercially exploited species distributed in seagrass areas of northern Japan and eastern Russia. A long-term survey of the surface water temperature in the lagoon clarified a gradual increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwave events since 1999. Surveys of the water temperature at a seagrass area in the lagoon during summer have also demonstrated that the maximum water temperature had been exceeding 25 °C, unusually high for this location, regardless of water depth. These results indicate that the effects of heatwaves in seagrass areas in a subarctic region had become as severe as those in tropical and temperate regions. We also experimentally evaluated the effects of this unusually high water temperature (25 °C) on the survival of P. latirostris by changing the length of exposure time. Some individuals suffered damage to their intestinal mucosal structure after exposure for 12 h or longer, and all individuals died after exposure for 120 h. Our results suggest that heatwaves possibly cause mass mortality in P. latirostris in the following sequence: heat stress, damage to the intestinal epithelial mucosal structure, degradation of nutrient absorption and immunological function of the intestine, energy deficiency and disease infection, and finally mortality. This study, conducted in subarctic closed waters, concludes that it is essential to become familiar with not only trends in heatwaves but also the intermittent occurrence of unusually high water temperature in seagrass areas in order to better understand the process of mortality of organisms that inhabit these ecosystems.

The unprecedented 2022 extreme summer heatwaves increased harmful cyanobacteria blooms

Heatwaves are increasing and expected to intensify in coming decades with global warming. However, direct evidence and knowledge of the mechanisms of the effects of heatwaves on harmful cyanobacteria blooms are limited and unclear. In 2022, we measured chlorophyll-a (Chla) at 20-s intervals based on a novel ground-based proximal sensing system (GBPSs) in the shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu and combined in situ Chla measurements with meteorological data to explore the impacts of heatwaves on cyanobacterial blooms and the potential relevant mechanisms. We found that three unprecedented summer heatwaves (July 4-15, July 22-August 16, and August 18-23) lasting a total of 44 days were observed with average maximum air temperatures (MATs) of 38.1 ± 1.9 °C, 38.7 ± 1.9 °C, and 40.2 ± 2.1 °C, respectively, and that these heatwaves were characterized by high air temperature, strong PAR, low wind speed and rainfall. The daily Chla significantly increased with increasing MAT and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and decreasing wind speed, revealing a clear promotion effect on harmful cyanobacteria blooms from the heatwaves. Moreover, the combined effects of high temperature, strong PAR and low wind, enhanced the stability of the water column, the light availability and the phosphorus release from the sediment which ultimately boosted cyanobacteria blooms. The projected increase in heatwave occurrence under future climate change underscores the urgency of reducing nutrient input to eutrophic lakes to combat cyanobacteria growth and of improving early warning systems to ensure secure water management.

Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming

Atmospheric warming heats lakes, but the causes of variation among basins are poorly understood. Here, multi-decadal profiles of water temperatures, trophic state, and local climate from 345 temperate lakes are combined with data on lake geomorphology and watershed characteristics to identify controls of the relative rates of temperature change in water (WT) and air (AT) during summer. We show that differences in local climate (AT, wind speed, humidity, irradiance), land cover (forest, urban, agriculture), geomorphology (elevation, area/depth ratio), and water transparency explain >30% of the difference in rate of lake heating compared to that of the atmosphere. Importantly, the rate of lake heating slows as air warms (P < 0.001). Clear, cold, and deep lakes, especially at high elevation and in undisturbed catchments, are particularly responsive to changes in atmospheric temperature. We suggest that rates of surface water warming may decline relative to the atmosphere in a warmer future, particularly in sites already experiencing terrestrial development or eutrophication.

Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes

Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a-1 during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a-1. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.

Heatwaves, elevated temperatures, and a pesticide cause interactive effects on multi-trophic levels of a freshwater ecosystem

Climate impacts of elevated temperatures and more severe and frequent weather extremes like heatwaves are globally becoming discernible on nature. While a mechanistic understanding is pivotal for ecosystem management, stressors like pesticides may interact with warming, leading to unpredictable effects on freshwater ecosystems. These multiple stressor studies are scarce and experimental designs often lack environmental realism. To investigate the multiple stressor effects, we conducted a microcosm experiment for 48 days comprising benthic macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, macrophytes, and microbes. The fungicide carbendazim (100 μg/L) was investigated combined with temperature scenarios representing elevated temperatures (+4 °C) or heatwaves (+0 to +8 °C), both applied with similar energy input on a daily fluctuating ambient temperature (18 °C ± 1.5 °C), which served as control. Measurements showed the highest carbendazim dissipation in water under heatwaves followed by elevated and ambient temperatures. Average carbendazim concentrations were about 50% in water and 16% in sediment of the nominal concentration. In both heated cosms, zooplankton community dynamics revealed an unexpected shift from Rotifera to Cladocera and Copepoda nauplii, indicating variations in their thermal sensitivity, tolerance and resilience. Notably, warming and heatwaves shaped community responses similarly, suggesting heat intensity rather than distribution patterns determined the community structure. Heatwaves led to significant early and longer-lasting adverse effects that were exacerbated over time with Cladocera and Copepoda being most sensitive likely due to significant carbendazim interactions. Finally, a structural equation model demonstrated significant relationships between zooplankton and macrophytes and significantly negative carbendazim effects on zooplankton, whereas positive on macroinvertebrate abundances. The relationship between macroinvertebrate feeding and abundance was masked by significantly temperature-affected microbial leaf litter decomposition. Despite the thermal tolerance of zooplankton communities, our study highlights an increased pesticide threat under temperature extremes. More intense heatwaves are thus likely to cause significant alterations in community assemblages which will adversely affect ecosystem's processes and functions.

Global change and plant-ecosystem functioning in freshwaters

Freshwater ecosystems are of worldwide importance for maintaining biodiversity and sustaining the provision of a myriad of ecosystem services to modern societies. Plants, one of the most important components of these ecosystems, are key to water nutrient removal, carbon storage, and food provision. Understanding how the functional connection between freshwater plants and ecosystems is affected by global change will be key to our ability to predict future changes in freshwater systems. Here, we synthesize global plant responses, adaptations, and feedbacks to present-day and future freshwater environments through trait-based approaches, from single individuals to entire communities. We outline the transdisciplinary knowledge benchmarks needed to further understand freshwater plant biodiversity and the fundamental services they provide.

Effects of heat and pesticide stress on life history, physiology and the gut microbiome of two congeneric damselflies that differ in stressor tolerance

The combined impact of toxicants and warming on organisms is getting increased attention in ecotoxicology, but is still hard to predict, especially with regard to heat waves. Recent studies suggested that the gut microbiome may provide mechanistic insights into the single and combined stressor effects on their host. We therefore investigated effects of sequential exposure to a heat spike and a pesticide on both the phenotype (life history and physiology) and the gut microbiome composition of damselfly larvae. We compared the fast-paced Ischnura pumilio, which is more tolerant to both stressors, with the slow-paced I. elegans, to obtain mechanistic insights into species-specific stressor effects. The two species differed in gut microbiome composition, potentially contributing to their pace-of-life differences. Intriguingly, there was a general resemblance between the stressor response patterns in the phenotype and in the gut microbiome, whereby both species responded broadly similar to the single and combined stressors. The heat spike negatively affected the life history of both species (increased mortality, reduced growth rate), which could be explained not only by shared negative effects on physiology (inhibition of acetylcholinesterase, increase of malondialdehyde), but also by shared effects on gut bacterial species' abundances. The pesticide only had negative effects (reduced growth rate, reduced net energy budget) in I. elegans. The pesticide generated shifts in the bacterial community composition (e.g. increased abundance of Sphaerotilus and Enterobacteriaceae in the gut microbiome of I. pumilio), which potentially contributed to the relatively higher pesticide tolerance of I. pumilio. Moreover, in line with the response patterns in the host phenotype, the effects of the heat spike and the pesticide on the gut microbiome were mainly additive. By contrasting two species differing in stress tolerance, our results suggest that response patterns in the gut microbiome may improve our mechanistic understanding of single and combined stressor effects.

Adverse effects of the pesticide chlorpyrifos on the physiology of a damselfly only occur at the cold and hot extremes of a temperature gradient

Ecotoxicological studies considerably improved realism by assessing the toxicity of pollutants at different temperatures. Nevertheless, they may miss key interaction patterns between pollutants and temperature by typically considering only part of the natural thermal gradient experienced by species and ignoring daily temperature fluctuations (DTF). We therefore tested in a common garden laboratory experiment the effects of the pesticide chlorpyrifos across a range of mean temperatures and DTF on physiological traits (related to oxidative stress and bioenergetics) in low- and high-latitude populations of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae. As expected, the impact of chlorpyrifos varied along the wide range of mean temperatures (12-34 °C). None of the physiological traits (except the superoxide anion levels) were affected by chlorpyrifos at the intermediate mean temperatures (20-24 °C). Instead, most of them were negatively affected by chlorpyrifos (reduced activity levels of the antioxidant defense enzymes superoxide dismutase [SOD], catalase [CAT] and peroxidase [PER], and a reduced energy budget) at the very high (≥28 °C) or extreme high temperatures (≥32 °C), and to lesser extent at the lower mean temperatures (≤16 °C). Notably, at the lower mean temperatures the negative impact of chlorpyrifos was often only present or stronger under DTF. Although the chlorpyrifos effects on the physiological traits greatly depended on the experimentally imposed thermal gradient, patterns were mainly consistent across the natural latitude-associated thermal gradient, indicating the generality of our results. The thermal patterns in chlorpyrifos-induced physiological responses contributed to the observed toxicity patterns in life history (reduced survival and growth at low and high mean temperatures). Taken together, our results underscore the importance of evaluating pesticide toxicity along a temperature gradient and of taking a mechanistic approach with a focus on physiology, to improve our understanding of the combined effects of pollutants and temperature in natural populations.

Interactive effects of temperature and bisphenol A on phytoplankton growth and community structure

Environmental contamination of bisphenol A (BPA) is a widespread and multifaceted issue with vast ecological, social and economic consequences. Thus, understanding how local environmental conditions, such as temperature, interact with BPA to affect populations and community dynamics remain important areas of research. Here, we conduct laboratory experiments aimed at understanding how environmental gradients of both temperature and BPA concentration influence freshwater phytoplankton population growth and community structure. We exposed phytoplankton assemblages comprised of three common species of green algae (Chlorella vulgaris, Ankistrodesmus braunii and Scenedesmus quadricauda) as well as isolates of each individual species to three BPA concentrations (0, 2, 13 mg/L BPA) and three temperatures (18, 23, 27°C) monitoring population growth and community structure (via biovolume). We observed antagonistic interactions between BPA and warmer temperatures, such that when warmer temperatures decreased growth (observed with A. braunii), high concentrations of BPA elevated growth at these warm temperatures; however, when warmer temperatures increased growth (C. vulgaris, S. quadricauda), high BPA concentrations diminished these gains. Although BPA exposure inhibited the growth of most C. vulgaris populations, growth was not reduced in A. braunii or S. quadricauda populations exposed to 2 mg/L BPA. Phytoplankton assemblage evenness (Pielou evenness index) decreased as BPA concentration increased and was consistently lowest under 27°C. Community composition was similar in assemblages cultured under 0 and 2 mg/L BPA under 18 and 23°C but was most similar between assemblages cultured under 2 and 13 mg/L BPA under 27°C. These results indicate that local environmental temperatures can mediate the consequences of BPA for freshwater phytoplankton growth rates and community structure and that BPA can diminish potential gains of increased growth rate for warm-adapted phytoplankton species at high environmental temperatures.

Interactions between dissolved organic matter and the microbial community are modified by microplastics and heat waves

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) exists widely in natural waters and plays an important role in river carbon cycles and greenhouse gas emissions through microbial interactions. However, information on DOM-microbe associations in response to environmental stress is limited. River environments are the main carriers of microplastic (MP) pollution, and global heat waves (HWs) are threatening river ecology. Here, through MP exposure and HW simulation experiments, we found that DOM molecular weight and aromaticity were closely related to initial microbial communities. Moreover, MP-derived DOM regulated microbial community abundance and diversity, influenced microorganism succession trajectories as deterministic factors, and competed with riverine DOM for microbial utilization. SimulatedHWs enhanced the MP-derived DOM competitive advantage and drove the microbial community to adopt a K-strategy for effective recalcitrant carbon utilization. Relative to single environmental stressor exposure, combined MP pollution and HWs led to a more unstable microbial network. This study addresses how MPs and HWs drive DOM-microbe interactions in rivers, contributes to an in-depth understanding of the fate of river DOM and microbial community succession processes, and narrows the knowledge gap in understanding carbon sinks in aquatic ecosystems influenced by human activities and climate change.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

Thermal Performance Curves in a Polluted World: Too Cold and Too Hot Temperatures Synergistically Increase Pesticide Toxicity

Ecotoxicological studies typically cover only a limited part of the natural thermal range of populations and ignore daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs). Therefore, we may miss important stressor interaction patterns and have poor knowledge on how pollutants affect thermal performance curves (TPCs), which is needed to improve insights into the fate of populations to warming in a polluted world. We tested the single and combined effects of pesticide exposure and DTFs on the TPCs of low- and high-latitude populations of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae. While chlorpyrifos did not have any effect at the intermediate mean temperatures (20-24 °C), it became toxic (reflecting synergisms) at lower (≤16 °C, reduced growth) and especially at higher (≥28 °C, reduced survival and growth) mean temperatures, resulting in more concave-shaped TPCs. Remarkably, these toxicity patterns were largely consistent at both latitudes and hence across a natural thermal gradient. Moreover, DTFs magnified the pesticide-induced survival reductions at 34 °C. The TPC perspective allowed us to identify different toxicity patterns and interaction types (mainly additive vs synergistic) across the thermal gradient. This highlights the importance of using thermal gradients to make more realistic predictions about the impact of pesticides in a warming world and of warming in a polluted world.

Impacts of extreme climatic events on trophic network complexity and multidimensional stability

Untangling the relationship between network complexity and ecological stability under climate change is an arduous challenge for theoretical and empirical ecology. Even more so, when considering extreme climatic events. Here, we studied the effects of extreme climatic events (heatwaves) on the complexity of realistic freshwater ecosystems using topological and quantitative trophic network metrics. Next, we linked changes in network complexity with the investigation of four stability components (temporal stability, resistance, resilience, and recovery) of community's functional, compositional, and energy flux stability. We found reduction in topological network complexity to be correlated with reduction of functional and compositional resistance. However, temperature-driven increase in link-weighted network complexity increased functional and energy flux recovery and resilience, but at the cost of increased compositional instability. Overall, we propose an overarching approach to elucidate the effects of climate change on multidimensional stability through the lens of network complexity, providing helpful insights for preserving ecosystems stability under climate change.

Temporal continuous monitoring of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu at an hourly scale using machine learning

Cyanobacterial blooms in most lakes exhibit extraordinary changes in time and space. Herein, a cyanobacterial prediction model was designed for Lake Taihu based on a machine learning method. This method can generate temporally continuous (24 moments throughout the day) cyanobacterial data at a fine spatial scale of 9 km. The hourly meteorological data for 24 moments of the day were obtained from ERA5-Land data. Areal coverage of cyanobacterial blooms was derived from the hourly Geostationary Ocean Color Imager reflectance data observed only eight times a day (from ~8:00 to ~15:00, UTC+8). The cyanobacterial and meteorological data of eight moments in Lake Taihu from 2011 to 2020 were used to design the prediction model. The results were compared and validated employing nine training strategies to determine the best cyanobacterial prediction model for Lake Taihu (R = 0.42; root mean square error = 0.10). With the best-fitted model utilizing meteorological data (2011-2020), the area coverage of cyanobacterial blooms at the other 16 moments during a day were estimated. Based on this, the regional and temporal characteristics of diurnal bloom variation were evaluated at an hourly scale. The results indicated that the hourly variations in the areal coverage of cyanobacterial blooms at 24 moments of the day had similar patterns in each subregion of Lake Taihu with minor seasonal variations. The six meteorological variables adopted to construct the model had similar diurnal changes but with diverse value ranges among the seasons. Further analysis revealed that three meteorological variables (temperature, surface pressure, and evaporation) were positively related to diurnal bloom variations at an hourly scale. Overall, these results illustrate that meteorological conditions can affect the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms at multiple time scales (e.g., hourly, daily, or monthly). The developed cyanobacterial prediction model can provide cyanobacterial data when cyanobacterial data is unavailable for the target waterbody.

Thermal and latitudinal patterns in pace-of-life traits are partly mediated by the gut microbiome

The integration of life-history, physiological and behavioural traits into the pace-of-life generates a powerful framework to understand trait variation in nature both along environmental gradients and in response to environmental stressors. While the gut microbiome has been hypothesized as a candidate mechanism to underlie differentiation in the pace-of-life, this has been rarely studied. We investigated the role of the gut microbiome in contributing to the differentiation in pace-of-life and in thermal adaptation between populations of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae inhabiting warmer low latitudes and colder high latitudes. We carried out a common-garden experiment, whereby we manipulated the exposure of the damselfly larvae to two key global warming factors: 4 °C warming and a 30 °C heat wave. Comparing the bacterial composition of the food source and the bacterioplankton indicated that damselfly larvae differentially take up bacteria from the surrounding environment and have a resident and functionally relevant microbiome. The gut microbiome differed between larvae of both latitudes, and this was associated with the host's latitudinal differentiation in activity, a key pace-of-life trait. Under heat wave exposure, the gut microbial community composition of high-latitude larvae converged towards that of the low-latitude larvae, with an increase in bacteria that likely are important in providing energy to cope with the heat wave. This suggests an adaptive latitude-specific shift in the gut microbiota matching the better ability of low-latitude hosts to deal with heat extremes. In general, our study provides evidence for the gut microbiome contributing to latitudinal differentiation in both the pace-of-life and in heat adaptation in natural populations.

A systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis of the relationships between driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms at global scale

The global expansion of cyanobacterial blooms poses a major risk to the safety of freshwater resources. As a result, many explorations have been performed at a regional scale to determine the underlying impact mechanism of cyanobacterial blooms for one or several waterbodies. However, two questions still need to be answered quantitatively at a global scale to assist the water management. One is to specify which factors were often selected as the driving forces of cyanobacterial blooms, and the other is to estimate their quantitative relationships. For that, this paper applied a systematic literature review for 41 peer-reviewed studies published before May 2021 and a statistical meta-analysis based on the Pearson's or Spearman's correlation coefficients from 27 studies. These results showed that the water quality, hydraulic conditions, meteorological conditions and nutrient levels were often considered the driving forces of cyanobacterial blooms in global freshwater systems. Among these, meteorological conditions and nutrient level had the highest probability of being chosen as the driving force. In addition, knowledge of the quantitative relationships between these driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms was newly synthesized based on the correlation coefficients. The results indicated that, at a global scale, meteorological conditions were negatively related to cyanobacterial blooms, and other driving forces, such as water quality, hydraulic conditions and nutrient levels, were positively related to cyanobacterial blooms. In addition, the measurement indicators of these driving forces had diverse forms. For example, the nutrient level can be measured by the concentration of different forms of nitrogen or phosphorus, which may lead to different results in correlation analysis. Thus, a subgroup meta-analysis was necessary for the subdivided driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms, which had a better accuracy. Overall, the synthesized knowledge can help guide advanced cyanobacteria-centered water management, especially when the necessary cyanobacterial data of targeting waterbodies are inaccessible.

Multivariable integrated risk assessment for cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lakes and its spatiotemporal characteristics

Climate change has catalyzed the global expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic , lakes and threatens water security. In most studies, the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in lakes were evaluated using field-collected data from multiple indicators or spatially continuous data from one cyanobacteria-related indicator. Nevertheless, the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes has clear spatial heterogeneity and is affected by numerous factors. Therefore, we developed a multivariable integrated risk assessment framework for cyanobacterial blooms in lakes using five spatially continuous datasets to estimate the risk level of cyanobacterial blooms at the pixel scale (250 m). The spatial and temporal variations in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels from May 1, 2002, to October 31, 2020, were investigated for three typical eutrophic lakes in China: Lakes Taihu, Chaohu, and Dianchi. Seasons and regions of high cyanobacterial bloom risk were identified for each lake. Environmental characteristics were discussed. A long-term investigation revealed that owing to its warm climate, the cyanobacterial risk levels in summer and autumn were much higher than those in the other two seasons. At the synoptic scale, Lake Taihu had a lower cyanobacterial bloom risk than Lakes Chaohu and Dianchi. A further comparison found that precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were responsible for the differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels among the three lakes. At the pixel scale, the risk map indicated that the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels of Lake Taihu were unevenly distributed, and the cyanobacterial bloom risk of the lakeshore was higher than that of the other subregions. Nutrient levels played the most critical role in the regional differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in a lake. While the differences of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in three lakes were resulted by the climates. Bloom events were defined and classified as "long-term bloom" or "flash bloom" according to their duration (over or below a year). Overall, this study can assist in advanced water management with a pixel-scale evaluation of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels.

Lakes in Hot Water: The Impacts of a Changing Climate on Aquatic Ecosystems

Our planet is being subjected to unprecedented climate change, with far-reaching social and ecological repercussions. Below the waterline, aquatic ecosystems are being affected by multiple climate-related and anthropogenic stressors, the combined effects of which are poorly understood and rarely appreciated at the global stage. A striking consequence of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is that many are experiencing shorter periods of ice cover, as well as earlier and longer summer stratified seasons, which often result in a cascade of ecological and environmental consequences, such as warmer summer water temperatures, alterations in lake mixing and water levels, declines in dissolved oxygen, increased likelihood of cyanobacterial algal blooms, and the loss of habitat for native cold-water fisheries. The repercussions of a changing climate include impacts on freshwater supplies, water quality, biodiversity, and the ecosystem benefits that they provide to society.

Combined effects of eutrophication and warming on polyunsaturated fatty acids in complex phytoplankton communities: A mesocosm experiment

Climate change and eutrophication are among the main stressors of shallow freshwater ecosystems, and their effects on phytoplankton community structure and primary production have been studied extensively. However, their combined effects on the algal production of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), specifically, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are currently unresolved. Moreover, the proximate reasons for changes in phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations are unclear, i.e., the relative importance of ecological (changes in the community composition) vs. ecophysiological (within taxa changes in EPA and DHA levels) factors. We investigated the responses of phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations to warming (IPCC climate scenario) and nutrient additions in mesocosms which had been run continuously at varying temperature and nutrient levels for 15 years prior to this study. Nutrient treatment had a significant effect on phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations and about 59 % of the variation in EPA and DHA concentrations could be explained by changes in the phytoplankton community structure. Increased biomass of diatoms corresponded with high EPA and DHA concentrations, while cyanobacteria/chlorophyte dominated mesocosm had low EPA and DHA concentrations. Warming had only a marginal effect on the EPA and DHA concentrations in these mesocosms. However, a significant interaction was observed with warming and N:P ratio. Our findings indicate that direct nutrient/temperature effects on algal physiology and PUFA metabolism were negligible and the changes in EPA and DHA concentrations were mostly related to the phytoplankton community structure and biomass. These results also imply that in shallow temperate lakes eutrophication, leading to increased dominance of cyanobacteria, will probably be a greater threat to phytoplankton EPA and DHA production than warming. EPA and DHA are nutritionally important for upper trophic level consumers and decreased production may impair secondary production.

Warming lowers critical thresholds for multiple stressor-induced shifts between aquatic primary producers

In aquatic ecosystems, excessive nutrient loading is a global problem that can induce regime shifts from macrophyte- to phytoplankton-dominated states with severe consequences for ecosystem functions. Most agricultural landscapes are sites of nutrient and pesticide loading, which can interact with other stressors (e.g., warming) in additive, antagonistic, synergistic or reversed forms. The effects of multiple stressors on the resilience of macrophyte-dominated states and on critical thresholds for regime shifts are, however, unknown. We test the effects of individual and combined stressors of warming, nitrate, and various pesticides typically found in agricultural run-off (ARO) on the growth of macrophytes, periphyton, and phytoplankton in microcosms. We applied a one-level replicated design to test whether ARO induces a regime shift and a multifactorial dose-response design to model stressor thresholds and disentangle stressor interactions along a gradient. The individual stressors did not induce a regime shift, but the full ARO did. Nitrate and pesticides acted synergistically, inducing a shift with increasing phytoplankton biomass and decreasing macrophyte biomass. Warming amplified this effect and lowered critical thresholds for regime shifts. Shallow aquatic ecosystems in agricultural landscapes affected by global warming thus increasingly risk shifting to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state, and negatively impacting ecosystem service provisioning. Multiple stressor interactions must be considered when defining safe operating spaces for aquatic systems.

Genetic variation of the interaction type between two stressors in a single population: From antagonism to synergism when combining a heat spike and a pesticide

Despite the surging interest in the interactions between toxicants and non-chemical stressors, and in evolutionary ecotoxicology, we have poor knowledge whether these patterns differ among genotypes within a population. Warming and toxicants are two widespread stressors in aquatic systems that are known to modify each other's effects. We studied to what extent effects of sequential exposure to a heat spike and the pesticide esfenvalerate differed among genotypes in the water flea Daphnia magna. Esfenvalerate had similar negative effects on survival and body size across genotypes, and for most genotypes it increased time to maturation, yet the effects on the reproductive performance were only detected in some genotypes and were inconsistent in direction. Across genotypes, the heat spike increased the heat tolerance, yet the negative effects of the heat spike on survival, reproductive performance and body size, and the positive effects on grazing rate and the shortened time to maturation were only seen in some genotypes. Notably, the interaction type between both stressors differed among genotypes. In contrast to our expectation, the impact of esfenvalerate was only magnified by the heat spike in some genotypes and only for a subset of the traits. For survival and time to maturation, the interaction type for the same stressor combination covered all three categories: additions, synergisms and antagonisms. This illustrates that categorizing the interaction type between stressors at the level of populations may hide considerable intrapopulation variation among genotypes. Opposite to our expectation, the more pesticide-tolerant genotypes showed a stronger synergism between both stressors. Genotype-dependent interaction patterns between toxicants and non-chemical stressors may explain inconsistencies among studies and challenges ecological risk assessment based on single genotypes. The observed genetic differences in the responses to the (combined) stressors may fuel the evolution of the stressor interaction pattern, a largely ignored topic in evolutionary ecotoxicology.

Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters

Lakes are significant emitters of methane to the atmosphere, and thus are important components of the global methane budget. Methane is typically produced in lake sediments, with the rate of methane production being strongly temperature dependent. Local and regional studies highlight the risk of increasing methane production under future climate change, but a global estimate is not currently available. Here, we project changes in global lake bottom temperatures and sediment methane production rates from 1901 to 2099. By the end of the 21st century, lake bottom temperatures are projected to increase globally, by an average of 0.86-2.60°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6-8.5, with greater warming projected at lower latitudes. This future warming of bottom waters will likely result in an increase in methane production rates of 13%-40% by the end of the century, with many low-latitude lakes experiencing an increase of up to 17 times the historical (1970-1999) global average under RCP 8.5. The projected increase in methane production will likely lead to higher emissions from lakes, although the exact magnitude of the emission increase requires more detailed regional studies.

Prevalence and mechanisms of environmental hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance in fishes

Recent evidence has suggested environmental hyperoxia (O₂ supersaturation) can boost cardiorespiratory performance in aquatic ectotherms, thereby increasing resilience to extreme heat waves associated with climate change. Here, using rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) as a model species, we analysed whether improved cardiorespiratory performance can explain the increased thermal tolerance of fish in hyperoxia (200% air saturation). Moreover, we collated available literature data to assess the prevalence and magnitude of hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance across fish species. During acute warming, O₂ consumption rate was substantially elevated under hyperoxia relative to normoxia beyond 23°C. This was partly driven by higher cardiac output resulting from improved cardiac contractility. Notably, hyperoxia mitigated the rise in plasma lactate at temperatures approaching upper limits and elevated the critical thermal maximum (+0.87°C). Together, these findings show, at least in rainbow trout, that hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance results from expanded tissue O₂ supply capacity driven by enhanced cardiac performance. We show 50% of the fishes so far examined have increased critical thermal limits in hyperoxia (range: 0.4-1.8°C). This finding indicates environmental hyperoxia could improve the ability of a large number of fishes to cope with extreme acute warming, thereby increasing resilience to extreme heat wave events resulting from climate change.

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale

Lakes can change dramatically following a slow change in conditions. They can abruptly shift from being oligotrophic to eutrophic or vice versa, in what is called a regime shift. Despite the important consequences for ecosystems and human activities of abrupt shifts, we do not know how frequent they are or how they are distributed globally. To answer these questions, we analyze lake productivity dynamics of 1,015 lakes worldwide. Our results show few experienced regime shifts, yet the occurrence of observed regime shifts is increasing over time. Our analysis' global scope allows us to better understand the occurrence of regime shifts and the socioeconomic drivers associated with them. This knowledge will help manage lakes' response to global change.

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.