Systematic Assessment of the Climate Sensitivity of Important Human and Domestic Animals Pathogens in Europe

Spotting Culex pipiens from satellite: modeling habitat suitability in central Italy using Sentinel-2 and deep learning techniques

Culex pipiens, an important vector of many vector borne diseases, is a species capable to feeding on a wide variety of hosts and adapting to different environments. To predict the potential distribution of Cx. pipiens in central Italy, this study integrated presence/absence data from a four-year entomological survey (2019-2022) carried out in the Abruzzo and Molise regions, with a datacube of spectral bands acquired by Sentinel-2 satellites, as patches of 224 × 224 pixels of 20 meters spatial resolution around each site and for each satellite revisit time. We investigated three scenarios: the baseline model, which considers the environmental conditions at the time of collection; the multitemporal model, focusing on conditions in the 2 months preceding the collection; and the MultiAdjacency Graph Attention Network (MAGAT) model, which accounts for similarities in temperature and nearby sites using a graph architecture. For the baseline scenario, a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) analyzed a single multi-band Sentinel-2 image. The DCNN in the multitemporal model extracted temporal patterns from a sequence of 10 multispectral images; the MAGAT model incorporated spatial and climatic relationships among sites through a graph neural network aggregation method. For all models, we also evaluated temporal lags between the multi-band Earth Observation datacube date of acquisition and the mosquito collection, from 0 to 50 days. The study encompassed a total of 2,555 entomological collections, and 108,064 images (patches) at 20 meters spatial resolution. The baseline model achieved an F1 score higher than 75.8% for any temporal lag, which increased up to 81.4% with the multitemporal model. The MAGAT model recorded the highest F1 score of 80.9%. The study confirms the widespread presence of Cx. pipiens throughout the majority of the surveyed area. Utilizing only Sentinel-2 spectral bands, the models effectively capture early in advance the temporal patterns of the mosquito population, offering valuable insights for directing surveillance activities during the vector season. The methodology developed in this study can be scaled up to the national territory and extended to other vectors, in order to support the Ministry of Health in the surveillance and control strategies for the vectors and the diseases they transmit.

Association between ambient temperature and risk of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2011 to 2019

Previous studies on temperature and infectious diseases primarily focused on individual disease types, yielding inconsistent conclusions. This study collected monthly data on notifiable infectious disease cases and meteorological variables across 7 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases within each province, and random meta-analysis was applied to evaluate the pooled effect. Extreme hot temperature (the 97.5th percentile) was positively associated with the risk of respiratory infectious diseases with the relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.01-2.08). Conversely, extreme cold temperature (the 2.5th percentile) was negatively associated with intestinal infectious diseases and zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases, reporting RRs of 0.43 (95%CI: 0.30-0.60) and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.38-0.57), respectively. This study described the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases with different transmission routes, informing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for temperature-related infectious diseases.

Building a pathway to One Health surveillance and response in Asian countries

To detect and respond to emerging diseases more effectively, an integrated surveillance strategy needs to be applied to both human and animal health. Current programs in Asian countries operate separately for the two sectors and are principally concerned with detection of events that represent a short-term disease threat. It is not realistic to either invest only in efforts to detect emerging diseases, or to rely solely on event-based surveillance. A comprehensive strategy is needed, concurrently investigating and managing endemic zoonoses, studying evolving diseases which change their character and importance due to influences such as demographic and climatic change, and enhancing understanding of factors which are likely to influence the emergence of new pathogens. This requires utilisation of additional investigation tools that have become available in recent years but are not yet being used to full effect. As yet there is no fully formed blueprint that can be applied in Asian countries. Hence a three-step pathway is proposed to move towards the goal of comprehensive One Health disease surveillance and response.

Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential

BACKGROUND

The global temperature has significantly risen in the past century. Studies have indicated that higher temperature intensifies malaria transmission in tropical and temperate countries. Temperature fluctuations will have a potential impact on parasite development in the vector Anopheles mosquito.

METHODS

Year-long microclimate temperatures were recorded from a malaria-endemic area, Chennai, India, from September 2021 to August 2022. HOBO data loggers were placed in different vector resting sites including indoor and outdoor roof types. Downloaded temperatures were categorised by season, and the mean temperature was compared with data from the same study area recorded from November 2012 to October 2013. The extrinsic incubation period for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax was calculated from longitudinal temperatures recorded during both periods. Vector surveillance was also carried out in the area during the summer season.

RESULTS

In general, temperature and daily temperature range (DTR) have increased significantly compared to the 2012-2013 data, especially the DTR of indoor asbestos structures, from 4.30 ℃ to 12.62 ℃ in 2021-2022, unlike the marginal increase observed in thatched and concrete structures. Likewise, the average DTR of outdoor asbestos structures increased from 5.02 ℃ (2012-2013) to 8.76 ℃ (2021-2022) although the increase was marginal in thatched structures and, surprisingly, showed no such changes in concrete structures. The key finding of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is that a decreasing trend was observed in 2021-2022 compared to 2012-2013, mainly in indoor asbestos structures from 7.01 to 6.35 days, which negatively correlated with the current observation of an increase in temperature. Vector surveillance undertaken in the summer season revealed the presence of Anopheles breeding in various habitats. Anopheles stephensi could be collected using CDC light traps along with other mosquito species.

CONCLUSION

The microclimate temperature has increased significantly over the years, and mosquitoes are gradually adapting to this rising temperature. Temperature negatively correlates with the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. As the temperature increases, the development of the parasite in An. stephensi will be faster because of a decrease in EIP, thus requiring relatively fewer days, posing a risk for disease transmission and a hindrance to malaria elimination efforts.

[Climate Crisis: What Gastrointestinal Complications of this Medical Emergency Should We Be Aware Of?]

INTRODUCTION

The climate crisis has serious consequences for many areas of life. This applies in particular to human health - also in Europe. While cardiovascular, pneumological and dermatological diseases related to the climate crisis are often discussed, the crisis' significant gastroenterological consequences for health must also be considered.

METHODS

A literature search (Pubmed, Cochrane Library) was used to identify papers with relevance particularly to the field of gastroenterology in (Central) Europe. Findings were supplemented and discussed by an interdisciplinary team.

RESULTS

The climate crisis impacts the frequency and severity of gastrointestinal diseases in Europe due to more frequent and severe heat waves, flooding and air pollution. While patients with intestinal diseases are particularly vulnerable to acute weather events, the main long-term consequences of climate change are gastrointestinal cancer and liver disease. In addition to gastroenteritis, other infectious diseases such as vector-borne diseases and parasites are important in the context of global warming, heat waves and floods.

DISCUSSION

Adaptation strategies must be consistently developed and implemented for vulnerable groups. Patients at risk should be informed about measures that can be implemented individually, such as avoiding heat, ensuring appropriate hydration and following hygiene instructions. Recommendations for physical activity and a healthy and sustainable diet are essential for the prevention of liver diseases and carcinomas. Measures for prevention and the promotion of resilience can be supported by the physicians at various levels. In addition to efforts fostering sustainability in the immediate working environment, a system-oriented commitment to climate protection is important.

Do natural catastrophic events and exceptional climatic conditions also affect parasites?

Parasites and parasitologists have always lived together in good and bad luck in a sort of forced marriage. In recent times bad luck certainly prevailed, because of increasing man-made emergencies such as wars, chemical disasters, but also because of natural disasters, amplified by climate change, that condition more and more parasite–host equilibrium. The symposium at the National Congress of the Italian Society for Parasitology, was a first occasion for Italian parasitologists to reason about ‘disaster parasitology’ and researchers’ responsibilities. Extreme weather events and their impacts on parasites’ epidemiology are illustrated, comparing disasters that recently occurred in Italy with literature data. In particular, the Sardinian Island was hit subsequently by fires and floods exacerbating the effects on ecosystems and parasite–host-relationships. Examples of Cryptosporidium outbreaks in man and Fasciola hepatica infections in various hosts after heavy rains are reviewed and effects of droughts on pasture borne parasites, such as gastro-intestinal nematodes of ruminants are discussed. Heavy rains may also cause dissemination of toxic substances released accidentally from chemical plants as happened e.g. in Milan province (IT) after the dioxin hazard. The overlapping effects of strictly man-made disasters with climate change dependent extreme weather events is further challenging the understanding of what are the consequences of disasters on ecosystems and parasite epidemiology.GIS applications combined with AI programs may help to face the complex challenges, allowing the collection and analysis of spatial/temporal data at whatever level desired. Examples illustrated in the article suggest their employment also in a more systematic, prevention-oriented manner.

Zoonoses in a changing world

Animals are continuously exposed to pathogens but rarely get infected, because pathogens must overcome barriers to establish successful infections. Ongoing planetary changes affect factors relevant for such infections, such as pathogen pressure and pathogen exposure. The replacement of wildlife with domestic animals shrinks the original host reservoirs, whereas expanding agricultural frontiers lead to increased contact between natural and altered ecosystems, increasing pathogen exposure and reducing the area where the original hosts can live. Climate change alters species' distributions and phenology, pathogens included, resulting in exposure to pathogens that have colonized or recolonized new areas. Globalization leads to unwilling movement of and exposure to pathogens. Because people and domestic animals are overdominant planetwide, there is increased selective pressure for pathogens to infect them. Nature conservation measures can slow down but not fully prevent spillovers. Additional and enhanced surveillance methods in potential spillover hotspots should improve early detection and allow swifter responses to emerging outbreaks.

Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond

Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health-Climate Risk framework.

Climate change and public health in Germany - An introduction to the German status report on climate change and health 2023

Global warming of 1.5°C and even 2°C is likely to be exceeded during the 21st century. Climate change poses a worldwide threat and has direct and indirect effects on infectious diseases, on non-communicable diseases and on mental health. Not all people are equally able to protect themselves against the impacts of climate change; particularly populations that are vulnerable due to individual factors (children, older persons, those immunocompromised or with pre-existing conditions), social factors (the socially disadvantaged), or living and working conditions (e. g. people who work outdoors) are subject to an increased risk. Concepts such as One Health or Planetary Health provide a framework to frame both climate change itself and adaptation strategies or sets of actions for environmental human and animal health. Knowledge of climate change impacts has grown in recent years, and mitigation and adaptation strategies have been developed.

Genome-wide association studies in plant pathosystems: success or failure?

Harnessing natural genetic variation is an established alternative to artificial genetic variation for investigating the molecular dialog between partners in plant pathosystems. Herein, we review the successes of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in both plants and pathogens. While GWAS in plants confirmed that the genetic architecture of disease resistance is polygenic, dynamic during the infection kinetics, and dependent on the environment, GWAS shortened the time of identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and revealed both complex epistatic networks and a genetic architecture dependent upon the geographical scale. A similar picture emerges from the few GWAS in pathogens. In addition, the ever-increasing number of functionally validated QTLs has revealed new molecular plant defense mechanisms and pathogenicity determinants. Finally, we propose recommendations to better decode the disease triangle.

Climate Anomalies and Spillover of Bat-Borne Viral Diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Arabian Peninsula

Climate variability and anomalies are known drivers of the emergence and outbreaks of infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the potential association between climate factors and anomalies, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and land surface temperature anomalies, as well as the emergence and spillover events of bat-borne viral diseases in humans and livestock in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula. Our findings from time series analyses, logistic regression models, and structural equation modelling revealed that the spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were differently impacted by climate variability and with different time lags. We also used event coincidence analysis to show that the emergence events of most bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula were statistically associated with ENSO climate anomalies. Spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were also significantly associated with these events, although the pattern and co-influence of other climate factors differed. Our results suggest that climate factors and anomalies may create opportunities for virus spillover from bats to livestock and humans. Ongoing climate change and the future intensification of El Niño events will therefore potentially increase the emergence and spillover of bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula.

Epithelial barrier hypothesis: Effect of the external exposome on the microbiome and epithelial barriers in allergic disease

Environmental exposure plays a major role in the development of allergic diseases. The exposome can be classified into internal (e.g., aging, hormones, and metabolic processes), specific external (e.g., chemical pollutants or lifestyle factors), and general external (e.g., broader socioeconomic and psychological contexts) domains, all of which are interrelated. All the factors we are exposed to, from the moment of conception to death, are part of the external exposome. Several hundreds of thousands of new chemicals have been introduced in modern life without our having a full understanding of their toxic health effects and ways to mitigate these effects. Climate change, air pollution, microplastics, tobacco smoke, changes and loss of biodiversity, alterations in dietary habits, and the microbiome due to modernization, urbanization, and globalization constitute our surrounding environment and external exposome. Some of these factors disrupt the epithelial barriers of the skin and mucosal surfaces, and these disruptions have been linked in the last few decades to the increasing prevalence and severity of allergic and inflammatory diseases such as atopic dermatitis, food allergy, allergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis, eosinophilic esophagitis, and asthma. The epithelial barrier hypothesis provides a mechanistic explanation of how these factors can explain the rapid increase in allergic and autoimmune diseases. In this review, we discuss factors affecting the planet's health in the context of the 'epithelial barrier hypothesis,' including climate change, pollution, changes and loss of biodiversity, and emphasize the changes in the external exposome in the last few decades and their effects on allergic diseases. In addition, the roles of increased dietary fatty acid consumption and environmental substances (detergents, airborne pollen, ozone, microplastics, nanoparticles, and tobacco) affecting epithelial barriers are discussed. Considering the emerging data from recent studies, we suggest stringent governmental regulations, global policy adjustments, patient education, and the establishment of individualized control measures to mitigate environmental threats and decrease allergic disease.

The Prospective Effects of Climate Change on Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a Review

An increase in the annual daily temperature is documented and predicted to occur in the coming decades. Climate change has a direct effect and adverse impact on human health, as well as on multiple ecosystems and their species. The purpose of this paper is to review the effect of climate change on neglected tropical diseases including leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A list of engine web searches was done; 280 full-text records were assessed for eligibility. Only 48 original records were included within the final selection for the review study. Most research results show an alteration of neglected diseases related to climate change influencing specifically the Eastern Mediterranean Region, in addition to the expectation of more effects at the level of vectors and reservoir whether its vector transmission route or its egg hatching and replication or even the survival of adult worms in the coming years. At the same time, not all articles related to the region interpret the direct or indirect effect of climate variations on these specific diseases. Although few studies were found describing some of climate change effects on neglected tropical diseases in the region, still, the region lacks research funding, technical, and mathematical model expertise regarding the direct effect of climate change on the ecosystems of these neglected tropical diseases.

Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host-parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host-parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host-parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Biodiversity and COVID-19: A report and a long road ahead to avoid another pandemic

A report from a workshop organized by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on biodiversity and pandemics examined the scientific evidence on the origin of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other emerging zoonotic diseases. Here, we reflect upon the report's findings regarding how several important global initiatives are tackling the problems of preventing the emergence of zoonotic diseases by using the One Health approach.

Nationwide Incidence of Chigger Mite Populations and Molecular Detection of Orientia tsutsugamushi in the Republic of Korea, 2020

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency has established regional centers at 16 locations to monitor vectors and pathogens. We investigated the geographical and temporal distribution of chigger mite populations to understand tsutsugamushi disease epidemiology in 2020. To monitor weekly chigger mite populations, 3637 chigger mites were collected from sticky chigger mite traps in autumn. Chigger mites appeared from the first week of October to the third week of December, peaking in the fourth week of October. The predominant species were Leptotrombidium scutellare, Leptotrombidium palpale, Neotrombicula kwangneungensis, Neotrombicula tamiyai, and Leptotrombidium pallidum. To monitor Orientia tsutsugamushi infection in chigger mites, 50,153 chigger mites were collected from 499 trapped wild rodents in spring and autumn, with a chigger index of 100.5. Approximately 50% of chigger mites were pooled into 998 pools, and the minimum infection rate (MIR) of O. tsutsugamushi was 0.1%. Jeongeup had the highest MIR for O. tsutsugamushi (0.7%). The Kato-related genotype was the most common (52.2%), followed by the Karp-related (17.4%), Boryong (13.0%), JG-related (8.7%), Shimokoshi (4.3%), and Kawasaki (4.3%) genotypes. Ecological and geographical studies focusing on the basic ecology and pathology of mites will improve our understanding of tsutsugamushi disease risks in the Republic of Korea.

Interactions between Microbial Food Safety and Environmental Sustainability in the Fresh Produce Supply Chain

Improving the environmental sustainability of the food supply chain will help to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This environmental sustainability is related to different SDGs, but mainly to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 12 (Responsible Production and Consumption), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The strategies and measures used to improve this aspect of the food supply chain must remain in balance with other sustainability aspects (economic and social). In this framework, the interactions and possible conflicts between food supply chain safety and sustainability need to be assessed. Although priority must be given to safety aspects, food safety policies should be calibrated in order to avoid unnecessary deleterious effects on the environment. In the present review, a number of potential tensions and/or disagreements between the microbial safety and environmental sustainability of the fresh produce supply chain are identified and discussed. The addressed issues are spread throughout the food supply chain, from primary production to the end-of-life of the products, and also include the handling and processing industry, retailers, and consumers. Interactions of fresh produce microbial safety with topics such as food waste, supply chain structure, climate change, and use of resources have been covered. Finally, approaches and strategies that will prove useful to solve or mitigate the potential contradictions between fresh produce safety and sustainability are described and discussed. Upon analyzing the interplay between microbial safety and the environmental sustainability of the fresh produce supply chain, it becomes clear that decisions that are taken to ensure fresh produce safety must consider the possible effects on environmental, economic, and social sustainability aspects. To manage these interactions, a global approach considering the interconnections between human activities, animals, and the environment will be required.

A Systematic Review of the Effects of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Development and Survival: Implications for Malaria Control in a Future Warmer Climate

The rearing temperature of the immature stages can have a significant impact on the life-history traits and the ability of adult mosquitoes to transmit diseases. This review assessed published evidence of the effects of temperature on the immature stages, life-history traits, insecticide susceptibility, and expression of enzymes in the adult Anopheles mosquito. Original articles published through 31 March 2021 were systematically retrieved from Scopus, Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases. After applying eligibility criteria, 29 studies were included. The review revealed that immature stages of An. arabiensis were more tolerant (in terms of survival) to a higher temperature than An. funestus and An. quadriannulatus. Higher temperatures resulted in smaller larval sizes and decreased hatching and pupation time. The development rate and survival of An. stephensi was significantly reduced at a higher temperature than a lower temperature. Increasing temperatures decreased the longevity, body size, length of the gonotrophic cycle, and fecundity of Anopheles mosquitoes. Higher rearing temperatures increased pyrethroid resistance in adults of the An. arabiensis SENN DDT strain, and increased pyrethroid tolerance in the An. arabiensis SENN strain. Increasing temperature also significantly increased Nitric Oxide Synthase (NOS) expression and decreased insecticide toxicity. Both extreme low and high temperatures affect Anopheles mosquito development and survival. Climate change could have diverse effects on Anopheles mosquitoes. The sensitivities of Anopeheles mosquitoes to temperature differ from species to species, even among the same complex. Notwithstanding, there seem to be limited studies on the effects of temperature on adult life-history traits of Anopheles mosquitoes, and more studies are needed to clarify this relationship.

Insects and their pathogens in a changing climate

The complex nature of climate change-mediated multitrophic interaction is an underexplored area, but has the potential to dramatically shift transmission and distribution of many insects and their pathogens, placing some populations closer to the brink of extinction. However, for individual insect-pathogen interactions climate change will have complicated hard-to-anticipate impacts. Thus, both pathogen virulence and insect host immunity are intrinsically linked with generalized stress responses, and in both pathogen and host have extensive trade-offs with nutrition (e.g., host plant quality), growth and reproduction. Potentially alleviating or exasperating these impacts, some pathogens and hosts respond genetically and rapidly to environmental shifts. This review identifies many areas for future research including a particular need to identify how altered global warming interacts with other environmental changes and stressors, and how consistent these impacts are across pathogens and hosts. With that achieved we would be closer to producing an overarching framework to integrate knowledge on all environmental interplay and infectious disease events.

Discovering environmental management opportunities for infectious disease control

Climate change and emerging drug resistance make the control of many infectious diseases increasingly challenging and diminish the exclusive reliance on drug treatment as sole solution to the problem. As disease transmission often depends on environmental conditions that can be modified, such modifications may become crucial to risk reduction if we can assess their potential benefit at policy-relevant scales. However, so far, the value of environmental management for this purpose has received little attention. Here, using the parasitic disease of fasciolosis in livestock in the UK as a case study, we demonstrate how mechanistic hydro-epidemiological modelling can be applied to understand disease risk drivers and the efficacy of environmental management across a large heterogeneous domain. Our results show how weather and other environmental characteristics interact to define disease transmission potential and reveal that environmental interventions such as risk avoidance management strategies can provide a valuable alternative or complement to current treatment-based control practice.

Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence

The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.

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Risk results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems.

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Climate change will impact the livestock sector throughout the food supply chain⁠—from farm production to human consumption.

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Key hazards relate to climate change trends but also, and importantly, to climate variability and climate extremes.

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Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems.

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Adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures.

Combating Parasitic Nematode Infections, Newly Discovered Antinematode Compounds from Marine Epiphytic Bacteria

Parasitic nematode infections cause debilitating diseases and impede economic productivity. Antinematode chemotherapies are fundamental to modern medicine and are also important for industries including agriculture, aquaculture and animal health. However, the lack of suitable treatments for some diseases and the rise of nematode resistance to many available therapies necessitates the discovery and development of new drugs. Here, marine epiphytic bacteria represent a promising repository of newly discovered antinematode compounds. Epiphytic bacteria are ubiquitous on marine surfaces where they are under constant pressure of grazing by bacterivorous predators (e.g., protozoans and nematodes). Studies have shown that these bacteria have developed defense strategies to prevent grazers by producing toxic bioactive compounds. Although several active metabolites against nematodes have been identified from marine bacteria, drug discovery from marine microorganisms remains underexplored. In this review, we aim to provide further insight into the need and potential for marine epiphytic bacteria to become a new source of antinematode drugs. We discuss current and emerging strategies, including culture-independent high throughput screening and the utilization of Caenorhabditis elegans as a model target organism, which will be required to advance antinematode drug discovery and development from marine microbial sources.

Adaptation of Animal and Human Health Surveillance Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases Accompanying Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change is causing temperature rise in temperate zones resulting in climate conditions more similar to subtropical zones. As a result, rising temperatures increase the range of disease-carrying insects to new areas outside of subtropical zones, and increased precipitation causes flooding that is more hospitable for vector breeding. State governments, the federal government, and governmental agencies, like the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of USDA and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lack a coordinated plan for vector-borne disease accompanying climate change. APHIS focuses its surveillance primarily on the effect of illness on agricultural production, while NNDSS focuses on the emergence of pathogens affecting human health. This article provides an analysis of the current framework of surveillance of, and response to, vector-borne infectious diseases, the impacts of climate change on the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, and recommends changes to federal law to address these threats.

Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world

Using infectious diseases sensitive to climate as indicators of climate change helps stimulate and inform public health responses, write Kris A Murray and colleagues

Implications of human activities for (re)emerging infectious diseases, including COVID-19

Since 1980, the world has been threatened by different waves of emerging disease epidemics. In the twenty-first century, these diseases have become an increasing global concern because of their health and economic impacts in both developed and resource-constrained countries. It is difficult to stop the occurrence of new pathogens in the future due to the interconnection among humans, animals, and the environment. However, it is possible to face a new disease or to reduce the risk of its spread by implementing better early warning systems and effective disease control and prevention, e.g., effective global surveillance, development of technology for better diagnostics, effective treatments, and vaccines, the global political will to respond to any threats and multidisciplinary collaboration involving all sectors in charge of good health maintenance. In this review, we generally describe some factors related to human activities and show how they can play a role in the transmission and spread of infectious diseases by using some diseases as examples. Additionally, we describe and discuss major factors that are facilitating the spread of the new pandemic known as COVID-19 worldwide.

Predicting WNV Circulation in Italy Using Earth Observation Data and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model

West Nile Disease (WND) is one of the most spread zoonosis in Italy and Europe caused by a vector-borne virus. Its transmission cycle is well understood, with birds acting as the primary hosts and mosquito vectors transmitting the virus to other birds, while humans and horses are occasional dead-end hosts. Identifying suitable environmental conditions across large areas containing multiple species of potential hosts and vectors can be difficult. The recent and massive availability of Earth Observation data and the continuous development of innovative Machine Learning methods can contribute to automatically identify patterns in big datasets and to make highly accurate identification of areas at risk. In this paper, we investigated the West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in relation to Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Surface Soil Moisture collected during the 160 days before the infection took place, with the aim of evaluating the predictive capacity of lagged remotely sensed variables in the identification of areas at risk for WNV circulation. WNV detection in mosquitoes, birds and horses in 2017, 2018 and 2019, has been collected from the National Information System for Animal Disease Notification. An Extreme Gradient Boosting model was trained with data from 2017 and 2018 and tested for the 2019 epidemic, predicting the spatio-temporal WNV circulation two weeks in advance with an overall accuracy of 0.84. This work lays the basis for a future early warning system that could alert public authorities when climatic and environmental conditions become favourable to the onset and spread of WNV.

Climate and climate-sensitive diseases in semi-arid regions: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We aim to describe the relationships between climate variables and climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) in semi-arid regions, highlighting the different main groups of CSDs and their climate patterns.

METHODS

This systematic review considered Medline, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science. The data collection period was August and September 2019 and included studies published between 2008 and 2019. This study followed a protocol based on the PRISMA statement. Data analysis was done in a qualitative way.

RESULTS

The most of works were from Africa, Asia and Iran (71%), where temperature was the main climatic variable. Although the studies provide climatic conditions that are more favorable for the incidence of vector-borne and respiratory diseases, the influence of seasonal patterns on the onset, development and end of CSDs is still poorly understood, especially for gastrointestinal disorders. Moreover, little is known about the impact of droughts on CSDs.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarized the state of art of the relationship between climate and CSDs in semi-arid regions. Moreover, a research agenda was provided, which is fundamental for health policy development, priority setting and public health management.

Climate change implications for the distribution of the babesiosis and anaplasmosis tick vector, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

Climate change ranks among the most important issues globally, affecting geographic distributions of vectors and pathogens, and inducing losses in livestock production among many other damaging effects. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the ticks Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, an important vector of babesiosis and anaplasmosis globally. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species in two periods (2050 and 2070) and under two emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our results anticipate increases in suitability worldwide, particularly in the highest production areas for cattle. The Indo-Malayan region resulted in the highest cattle exposure under both climate change projections (2050), with increases in suitability of > 30%. This study illustrates how ecological niche modeling can be used to explore probable effects of climate change on disease vectors, and the possible consequences on economic dimensions.

Disease Ecology of Rickettsial Species: A Data Science Approach

We present an approach to assess the disease ecology of rickettsial species by investigating open databases and by using data science methodologies. First, we explored the epidemiological trend and changes of human rickettsial disease epidemics over the years and compared this trend with knowledge on emerging rickettsial diseases given by published reviews. Second, we investigated the global diversity of rickettsial species recorded in humans, domestic animals and wild mammals, using the Enhanced Infectious Disease Database (EID2) and employing a network analysis approach to represent and quantify transmission ecology of rickettsial species among their carriers, arthropod vectors or mammal reservoirs and humans. Our results confirmed previous studies that emphasized the increasing incidence in rickettsial diseases at the onset of 1970. Using the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Online Network (GIDEON) database, it was even possible to date the start of this increase of global outbreaks in rickettsial diseases in 1971. Network analysis showed the importance of domestic animals and peridomestic mammals in sharing rickettsial diseases with humans and other wild animals, acting as important hubs or connectors for rickettsial transmission.

Dairy Cow Health and Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity

The purpose of this review is to identify the main influencing factors related to dairy cow health as it impacts the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions considering known data presented in the literature. For this study, we define the emission intensity as CO2 equivalents per kilogram of milk. In dairy cows, a high dry matter (DM) intake (25 kg/d) leads to an higher absolute methane emission compared to a lower DM intake (10 kg/d). However, the emission intensity is decreased at a high performance level. The emissions caused by DM intake to cover the energy requirement for maintenance are distributed over a higher milk yield. Therefore, the emission intensity per kilogram of product is decreased for high-yielding animals with a high DM intake. Apart from that, animal diseases as well as poor environmental or nutritional conditions are responsible for a decreased DM intake and a compromised performance. As a result, animal diseases not only mean reduced productivity, but also increased emission intensity. The productive life-span of a dairy cow is closely related to animal health, and the impact on emission intensity is enormous. A model calculation shows that cows with five to eight lactations could have a reduced emission intensity of up to 40% compared to animals that have left the herd after their first lactation. This supports the general efforts to increase longevity of dairy cows by an improved health management including all measures to prevent diseases.

Molecular Assessment of Anaplasma marginale in Bovine and Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus Tick of Endemic Tribal Belt of Coastal South Gujarat, India

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

This study described the detection, prevalence and phylogeny of Anaplasma marginale in the bovine (cattle and buffaloes) and Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus tick belonged to the tribal area of coastal South Gujarat, India, by amplifying 576 bp of major surface protein (msp) 5 gene using custom designed primers in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

RESULTS

The PCR detection limit was up to 20 parasites/µl of blood in sensitivity experiment, and observed 100% specificity against Trypanosoma evansi, Babesia bigemina and Theileria annulata. Prevalence rate of the A. marginale in the bovine (n = 211)) was 18.48% and 6.64% (p < 0.05) as per the PCR and Giemsa stained blood smear, respectively. Febrile animals (35%) observed significantly (p < 0.05) higher incidence rate than the non-febrile (14.62%). The amplified msp5 had single cut site for the EcoR1 enzyme, upon digestion yielded two fragments of 365 and 211 bp on 1.0% agarose gel. The current sequence (KC811329) showed 100% homology and 1064 total score with the published nucleotide sequences of msp5 of A. marginale in the NCBI-BLAST study. Monophyletic relationship was observed with high bootstrap proportion (> 76% in Neighbor-Joining/ Maximum Likelihood) between the current and published nucleotide sequences in the phylogeny. Twenty out of 39 A. marginale infected bovine recorded R. (B.) microplus on their body surface, out of which 18 had detected the infection. The rickettsia was in 55%, 65% and 25% of anterior half, posterior half and egg of tick, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The test detected A. marginale in a carrier, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic vertebrate hosts (cattle and buffalo) and different body parts of the starved R. (B.) microplus including its egg. The current genotype could be an explanation for the frequent outbreaks of bovine anaplasmosis in the targeted areas.

Identifying climate-sensitive infectious diseases in animals and humans in Northern regions

BACKGROUND

General knowledge on climate change effects and adaptation strategies has increased significantly in recent years. However, there is still a substantial information gap regarding the influence of climate change on infectious diseases and how these diseases should be identified. From a One Health perspective, zoonotic infections are of particular concern. The climate in Northern regions is changing faster than the global average. This study sought to identify climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSIs) of relevance for humans and/or animals living in Northern regions. Inclusion criteria for CSIs were constructed using expert assessments. Based on these principles, 37 potential CSIs relevant for Northern regions were identified. A systematic literature search was performed in three databases using an explicit stepwise approach to determine whether the literature supports selection of these 37 potential CSIs.

RESULTS

In total, 1275 nominated abstracts were read and categorised using predefined criteria. Results showed that arthropod vector-borne diseases in particular are recognised as having potential to expand their distribution towards Northern latitudes and that tick-borne encephalitis and borreliosis, midge-borne bluetongue and the parasitic infection fasciolosis can be classified as climate-sensitive. Many of the other potential CSIs considered are affected by extreme weather events, but could not be clearly classified as climate-sensitive. An additional literature search comparing awareness of climate influences on potential CSIs between 1997-2006 and 2007-2016 showed an increase in the number of papers mentioning effects of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

The four CSIs identified in this study could be targeted in a systematic surveillance programme in Northern regions. It is evident that climate change can affect the epidemiology and geographical range of many infectious diseases, but there were difficulties in identifying additional CSIs, most likely because other factors may be of equal or greater importance. However, climate-ecological dynamics are constantly under change, and therefore diseases may fall in or out of the climate-sensitive definition over time. There is increasing awareness in the literature of the effects of climate change on infectious diseases over time.

Scrub typhus ecology: a systematic review of Orientia in vectors and hosts

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an important and neglected vector-borne zoonotic disease with an expanding known distribution. The ecology of the disease is complex and poorly understood, impairing discussion of public health interventions. To highlight what we know and the themes of our ignorance, we conducted a systematic review of all studies investigating the pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts. A total of 276 articles in 7 languages were included, with 793 study sites across 30 countries. There was no time restriction for article inclusion, with the oldest published in 1924. Seventy-six potential vector species and 234 vertebrate host species were tested, accounting for over one million trombiculid mites ('chiggers') and 83,000 vertebrates. The proportion of O. tsutsugamushi positivity was recorded for different categories of laboratory test and host species. Vector and host collection sites were geocoded and mapped. Ecological data associated with these sites were summarised. A further 145 articles encompassing general themes of scrub typhus ecology were reviewed. These topics range from the life-cycle to transmission, habitats, seasonality and human risks. Important gaps in our understanding are highlighted together with possible tools to begin to unravel these. Many of the data reported are highly variable and inconsistent and minimum data reporting standards are proposed. With more recent reports of human Orientia sp. infection in the Middle East and South America and enormous advances in research technology over recent decades, this comprehensive review provides a detailed summary of work investigating this pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts and updates current understanding of the complex ecology of scrub typhus. A better understanding of scrub typhus ecology has important relevance to ongoing research into improving diagnostics, developing vaccines and identifying useful public health interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.

Synthesis, biology, computational studies and in vitro controlled release of new isoniazid-based adamantane derivatives

Aim: There is a necessity for new drugs to be more efficient than today's standard due to the emergence of drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) Results/methodology: 12 new isoniazid-based adamantane derivatives were synthesized and tested for their antitubercular activity. The pharmacological test results and the aqueous dissolution profile of representative examples of the new molecules are in agreement with the computational results obtained from docking poses and molecular dynamics simulations on the tested compounds. Conclusion: Among their congeners, the adamantane isonicotinoyl hydrazones Ia and Ih exhibit the best antitubercular activity (MIC = 0.04 μg/ml) and the lowest cytotoxicity (selectivity index ≥2500). These results are useful for in future in vivo studies.

Scientists' warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change

In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Defining ecological regions in Italy based on a multivariate clustering approach: A first step towards a targeted vector borne disease surveillance

Ecoregionalization is the process by which a territory is classified in similar areas according to specific environmental and climatic factors. The climate and the environment strongly influence the presence and distribution of vectors responsible for significant human and animal diseases worldwide. In this paper, we developed a map of the eco-climatic regions of Italy adopting a data-driven spatial clustering approach using recent and detailed spatial data on climatic and environmental factors. We selected seven variables, relevant for a broad set of human and animal vector-borne diseases (VBDs): standard deviation of altitude, mean daytime land surface temperature, mean amplitude and peak timing of the annual cycle of land surface temperature, mean and amplitude of the annual cycle of greenness value, and daily mean amount of rainfall. Principal Component Analysis followed by multivariate geographic clustering using the k-medoids technique were used to group the pixels with similar characteristics into different ecoregions, and at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 1 km and 2 km). We showed that the spatial structure of ecoregions is generally maintained at different spatial resolutions and we compared the resulting ecoregion maps with two datasets related to Bluetongue vectors and West Nile Disease (WND) outbreaks in Italy. The known characteristics of Culicoides imicola habitat were well captured by 2/22 specific ecoregions (at 250 m resolution). Culicoides obsoletus/scoticus occupy all sampled ecoregions, according to its known widespread distribution across the peninsula. WND outbreak locations strongly cluster in 4/22 ecoregions, dominated by human influenced landscape, with intense cultivations and complex irrigation network. This approach could be a supportive tool in case of VBDs, defining pixel-based areas that are conducive environment for VBD spread, indicating where surveillance and prevention measures could be prioritized in Italy. Also, ecoregions suitable to specific VBDs vectors could inform entomological surveillance strategies.

Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens and Illness in Higher-Income Countries

Purpose of Review

We present a review of the likely consequences of climate change for foodborne pathogens and associated human illness in higher-income countries.

Recent Findings

The relationships between climate and food are complex and hence the impacts of climate change uncertain. This makes it difficult to know which foodborne pathogens will be most affected, what the specific effects will be, and on what timescales changes might occur. Hence, a focus upon current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne pathogens is essential. We highlight a number of developments that may enhance preparedness for climate change. These include the following:

Adoption of novel surveillance methods, such as syndromic methods, to speed up detection and increase the fidelity of intervention in foodborne outbreaks

Genotype-based approaches to surveillance of food pathogens to enhance spatiotemporal resolution in tracing and tracking of illness

Ever increasing integration of plant, animal and human surveillance systems, One Health, to maximise potential for identifying threats

Increased commitment to cross-border (global) information initiatives (including big data)

Improved clarity regarding the governance of complex societal issues such as the conflict between food safety and food waste

Strong user-centric (social) communications strategies to engage diverse stakeholder groups

Summary

The impact of climate change upon foodborne pathogens and associated illness is uncertain. This emphasises the need to enhance current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne illness. A range of developments are explored in this paper to enhance preparedness.

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Implementation of the One Health approach to fight arbovirus infections in the Mediterranean and Black Sea Region: Assessing integrated surveillance in Serbia, Tunisia and Georgia

Background

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea Region, arbovirus infections are emerging infectious diseases. Their surveillance can benefit from one health inter‐sectoral collaboration; however, no standardized methodology exists to study One Health surveillance.

Methods

We designed a situation analysis study to document how integration of laboratory/clinical human, animal and entomological surveillance of arboviruses was being implemented in the Region. We applied a framework designed to assess three levels of integration: policy/institutional, data collection/data analysis and dissemination. We tested the use of Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) to graphically present evidence of inter‐sectoral integration.

Results

Serbia, Tunisia and Georgia participated in the study. West Nile Virus surveillance was analysed in Serbia and Tunisia, Crimea‐Congo Haemorrhagic Fever surveillance in Georgia. Our framework enabled a standardized analysis of One Health surveillance integration, and BPMN was easily understandable and conducive to detailed discussions among different actors/institutions. In all countries, we observed integration across sectors and levels except in data collection and data analysis. Data collection was interoperable only in Georgia without integrated analysis. In all countries, surveillance was mainly oriented towards outbreak response, triggered by an index human case.

Discussion

The three surveillance systems we observed prove that integrated surveillance can be operationalized with a diverse spectrum of options. However, in all countries, the integrated use of data for early warning and inter‐sectoral priority setting is pioneeristic. We also noted that early warning before human case occurrence is recurrently not operationally prioritized.

Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

The annual, temporal and spatial pattern of Setaria tundra outbreaks in Finnish reindeer: a mechanistic transmission model approach

Background

In northern Finland (Lapland), reindeer are reared as semi-domesticated animals. The region has a short summer season of 2–3 months, yet reindeer are infected with the mosquito-borne filarioid parasite Setaria tundra. The infection causes peritonitis and perihepatitis, which cause significant economic losses due to reduced body weight of infected animals. The objective of this study was to: (i) describe the spatial and temporal pattern of outbreaks in three different areas across Finnish Lapland; and (ii) construct a temperature-driven mechanistic transmission model to quantify the potential role of temperature on intensity of S. tundra transmission in reindeer.

Methods

We developed a temperature-driven transmission model able to predict the number of S. tundra potentially transmitted from an infectious reindeer. We applied the model to the years 2004–2015, and compared the predictions to the proportion of reindeer whose livers were condemned due to S. tundra infection at the time of slaughter.

Results

The mean proportion of liver condemnation increased in reindeer slaughtered in late autumn/winter compared to earlier dates. The outbreaks were geographically clustered each year but there were no fixed foci where outbreaks occurred. Larger outbreaks were recorded in the southern regions of reindeer-herding areas compared to the central or northern parts of Lapland. Our model showed that temperatures never allowed for transmission of more than a single generation of S. tundra each season. In southern (Kuusamo) and central (Sodankylä) Lapland, our model predicted an increasing trend from 1979 to 2015 for both the duration of the effective transmission period of S. tundra (P < 0.001) and for the potential number of L3 S. tundra larvae being transmitted from an infectious reindeer (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The effective transmission period for S. tundra in reindeer is very short in Lapland, but it increased over the period studied. Only one generation of S. tundra can be transmitted in one season among reindeer in Lapland. Increasing temperatures may facilitate a range expansion and increasing duration of effective transmission period for S. tundra.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3159-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecosystem change and zoonoses in the Anthropocene

Changes in land use, animal populations and climate, primarily due to increasing human populations, drive the emergence of zoonoses. Force of infection (FOI), which for these diseases is a measure of the ease with which a pathogen reaches the human population, can change with specific zoonoses and context. Here, we outline three ecosystem categories-domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic, where disease ecology alters the FOI of specific zoonoses. Human intervention is an overriding effect in the emergence of zoonoses; therefore, we need to understand the disease ecology and other influencing factors of pathogens and parasites that are likely to interact differently within ecological and cultural contexts. Planning for One Health and community ecology, such as an ecological impact assessment, is required to prepare and manage the emergence and impact of zoonoses in the Anthropocene.