Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century

Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world.

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of ectotherms

Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life-history traits into population- and community-level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life-history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population-level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population-level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density-dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized-invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe.

Rhizosphere microbial community structure differs between constant subzero and freeze-thaw temperature regimes in a subarctic soil

In the Arctic and subarctic, climate change is causing reduced snowpack extent and earlier snowmelt. Shallower snowpack decreases the thermal insulation of underlying soil and results in more freeze-thaw conditions reflective of dynamic air temperatures. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of alternative temperature regimes on overall microbial community structure and rhizosphere recruitment across representatives of three subarctic plant functional groups. We hypothesized that temperature regime would influence rhizosphere community structure more than plant type. Planted microcosms were established using a tree, forb, grass, or no plant control and subjected to either freeze-thaw cycling or static subzero temperatures. Our results showed rhizosphere communities exhibited reduced diversity compared to bulk soils, and were influenced by temperature conditions and to a lesser extent plant type. We found that plants have a core microbiome that is persistent under different winter temperature scenarios but also have temperature regime-specific rhizosphere microbes. Freeze-thaw cycling resulted in greater community shifts from the pre-incubation soils when compared to constant subzero temperature. This finding suggests that wintertime snowpack conditions may be a significant factor for plant-microbe interactions upon spring thaw.

An integrative and multi-indicator approach for wildlife health applied to an endangered caribou herd

Assessing wildlife health in remote regions requires a multi-faceted approach, which commonly involves convenient samplings and the need of identifying and targeting relevant and informative indicators. We applied a novel wildlife health framework and critically assessed the value of different indicators for understanding the health status and trends of an endangered tundra caribou population. Samples and data from the Dolphin and Union caribou herd were obtained between 2015 and 2021, from community-based surveillance programs and from captured animals. We documented and categorized indicators into health determinants (infectious diseases and trace elements), processes (cortisol, pathology), and health outcomes (pregnancy and body condition). During a recent period of steep population decline, our results indicated a relatively good body condition and pregnancy rates, and decreasing levels of stress, along with a low adult cow survival. We detected multiple factors as potential contributors to the reduced survival, including Brucella suis biovar 4, Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae and lower hair trace minerals. These results remark the need of targeted studies to improve detection and investigations on caribou mortalities. We also identified differences in health indicators between captured and hunter sampled caribou, highlighting the importance of accounting for sampling biases. This integrative approach that drew on multiple data sources has provided unprecedented knowledge on the health in this herd and highlights the value of documenting individual animal health to understand causes of wildlife declines.

Little directional change in the timing of Arctic spring phenology over the past 25 years

With the global change in climate, the Arctic has been pinpointed as the region experiencing the fastest rates of change. As a result, Arctic biological responses-such as shifts in phenology-are expected to outpace those at lower latitudes. 15 years ago, a decade-long dataset from Zackenberg in High Arctic Greenland revealed rapid rates of phenological change.1 To explore how the timing of spring phenology has developed since, we revisit the Zackenberg time series on flowering plants, arthropods, and birds. Drawing on the full 25-year period of 1996-2020, we find little directional change in the timing of events despite ongoing climatic change. We attribute this finding to a shift in the temporal patterns of climate conditions, from previous directional change to current high inter-annual variability. Additionally, some taxa appear to have reached the limits of their phenological responses, resulting in a leveling off in their phenological responses in warm years. Our findings demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring of taxa from across trophic levels within the community, allowing for detecting shifts in sensitivities and responses and thus for updated inference in the light of added information.

Navigating Agricultural Expansion in Harsh Conditions in Russia: Balancing Development with Insect Protection in the Era of Pesticides

As the world's population continues to increase, ensuring food security becomes a major problem. This often leads to the expansion of agricultural production, even in harsh conditions and becomes a key problem for many countries, including Russia. However, such expansion may entail certain costs, including the potential loss of insect populations, which are vital for ecological balance and agricultural productivity. The development of fallow lands in these regions is necessary to increase food production and increase food security; it is important to balance this with protection from harmful insects and sustainable farming methods. Research into the effects of insecticides on insects is an ongoing challenge, and new, sustainable farming methods are needed to ensure that protection from harmful insects and sustainable development can coexist. This article discusses the use of pesticides to protect the well-being of mankind, the problems of studying the effects of pesticides on insects and the vulnerability of insects to pesticides in regions with harsh conditions. It also discusses successful methods of sustainable agriculture and the importance of the legal framework governing the use of pesticides. The article emphasises the importance of balanced development with insect protection to ensure the sustainability of agricultural expansion in harsh conditions.

Active and dormant microorganisms on glacier surfaces

Glacier and ice sheet surfaces host diverse communities of microorganisms whose activity (or inactivity) influences biogeochemical cycles and ice melting. Supraglacial microbes endure various environmental extremes including resource scarcity, frequent temperature fluctuations above and below the freezing point of water, and high UV irradiance during summer followed by months of total darkness during winter. One strategy that enables microbial life to persist through environmental extremes is dormancy, which despite being prevalent among microbial communities in natural settings, has not been directly measured and quantified in glacier surface ecosystems. Here, we use a combination of metabarcoding and metatranscriptomic analyses, as well as cell-specific activity (BONCAT) incubations to assess the diversity and activity of microbial communities from glacial surfaces in Iceland and Greenland. We also present a new ecological model for glacier microorganisms and simulate physiological state-changes in the glacial microbial community under idealized (i) freezing, (ii) thawing, and (iii) freeze-thaw conditions. We show that a high proportion (>50%) of bacterial cells are translationally active in-situ on snow and ice surfaces, with Actinomycetota, Pseudomonadota, and Planctomycetota dominating the total and active community compositions, and that glacier microorganisms, even when frozen, could resume translational activity within 24 h after thawing. Our data suggest that glacial microorganisms respond rapidly to dynamic and changing conditions typical of their natural environment. We deduce that the biology and biogeochemistry of glacier surfaces are shaped by processes occurring over short (i.e., daily) timescales, and thus are susceptible to change following the expected alterations to the melt-regime of glaciers driven by climate change. A better understanding of the activity of microorganisms on glacier surfaces is critical in addressing the growing concern of climate change in Polar regions, as well as for their use as analogues to life in potentially habitable icy worlds.

Limits on phenological response to high temperature in the Arctic

Tundra plants are widely considered to be constrained by cool growing conditions and short growing seasons. Furthermore, phenological development is generally predicted by daily heat sums calculated as growing degree days. Analyzing over a decade of seasonal flower counts of 23 plant species distributed across four plant communities, together with hourly canopy-temperature records, we show that the timing of flowering of many tundra plants are best predicted by a modified growing degree day model with a maximum temperature threshold. Threshold maximums are commonly employed in agriculture, but until recently have not been considered for natural ecosystems and to our knowledge have not been used for tundra plants. Estimated maximum temperature thresholds were found to be within the range of daily temperatures commonly experienced for many species, particularly for plants at the colder, high Arctic study site. These findings provide an explanation for why passive experimental warming-where moderate changes in mean daily temperatures are accompanied by larger changes in daily maximum temperatures-generally shifts plant phenology less than ambient warming. Our results also suggest that many plants adapted to extreme cold environments may have limits to their thermal responsiveness.

Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology

Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.

Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) across the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study AmeriFlux core site cluster in the upper Great Lakes region of the USA from 1997 to 2020. The tower network included two mature hardwood forests with differing management regimes (US-WCr and US-Syv), two fen wetlands with varying levels of canopy sheltering and vegetation (US-Los and US-ALQ), and a very tall (400 m) landscape-level tower (US-PFa). Together, they provided over 70 site-years of observations. The 19-tower Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 campaign centered around US-PFa provided additional information on the spatial variation of NEE. Decadal variability was present in all long-term sites, but cross-site coherence in interannual NEE in the earlier part of the record became weaker with time as non-climatic factors such as local disturbances likely dominated flux time series. Average decadal NEE at the tall tower transitioned from carbon source to sink to near neutral over 24 years. Respiration had a greater effect than photosynthesis on driving variations in NEE at all sites. Declining snowfall offset potential increases in assimilation from warmer springs, as less-insulated soils delayed start of spring green-up. Higher CO₂ increased maximum net assimilation parameters but not total gross primary productivity. Stand-scale sites were larger net sinks than the landscape tower. Clustered, long-term carbon flux observations provide value for understanding the diverse links between carbon and climate and the challenges of upscaling these responses across space.

Unraveling global and diazotrophic bacteriomes of boreal forest floor feather mosses and their environmental drivers at the ecosystem and at the plant scale in North America

Feather mosses are abundant cryptogams of the boreal forest floor and shelter a broad diversity of bacteria who have important ecological functions (e.g., decomposition, nutrient cycling). In particular, nitrogen (N₂-) fixation performed by feather moss-associated diazotrophs constitutes an important entry of nitrogen in the boreal forest ecosystem. However, the composition of the feather moss bacteriome and its environmental drivers are still unclear. Using cDNA amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA and nifH genes and cyanobacterial biomass quantification, we explored the active global and diazotrophic bacterial communities of two dominant feather moss species (i) at the ecosystem scale, along a 500-km climatic and nutrient deposition gradient in the North American boreal forest, and (ii) at the plant scale, along the moss shoot senescence gradient. We found that cyanobacteria were major actors of the feather moss bacteriome, accounting for 33% of global bacterial communities and 65% of diazotrophic communities, and that several cyanobacterial and methanotrophic genera were contributing to N₂-fixation. Moreover, we showed that bacteria were occupying ecological niches along the moss shoot, with phototrophs being dominant in the apical part and methanotrophs being dominant in the basal part. Finally, climate (temperature, precipitation), environmental variables (moss species, month, tree density) and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, molybdenum, vanadium, iron) strongly shaped global and diazotrophic bacteriomes. In summary, this work presents evidence that the feather moss bacteriome plays crucial roles in supporting moss growth, health, and decomposition, as well as in the boreal forest carbon and nitrogen cycles. This study also highlights the substantial effects of climate and nutrients on the feather moss bacteriome, suggesting the importance of understanding the impacts of global change on moss-associated bacterial growth and activity.

Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas

Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species-specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity—but not phenological trends—predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species’ abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Prediction of vegetation phenology with atmospheric reanalysis over semiarid grasslands in Inner Mongolia

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change and vegetation growth. In the present study, two phenological phases with respect to vegetation growth at the initial and mature stages, namely, the start of the season (SOS) and the peak of the season (POS), were estimated from a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset over a long-term period of 32 years (1983 to 2014) and used to explore their responses to atmospheric variables, including air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and soil moisture. First, the forward feature selection method was used to determine whether each independent variable was linear or nonlinear to the SOS and POS. In addition, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the correlation between the phenological phases and each independent variable at different temporal scales. The results show that soil moisture and precipitation are linearly correlated with the SOS, whereas the other variables are nonlinearly correlated. Meanwhile, soil moisture, wind speed and solar radiation are found to be nonlinearly correlated with the POS. However, air temperature and precipitation reveal a significant negative correlation with the POS. Furthermore, it was concluded that the aforementioned independent variables from the previous year could contribute to approximately 63%-85% of the SOS variations in the present year, whereas the atmospheric variables from April to June could contribute to approximately 70%-85% of the POS variations in the same year. Finally, the SOS and POS predicted by the GAM exhibit significant agreement with those derived from the satellite NDVI dataset, with the root mean square error of approximately 3 to 5 days.

A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change

Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well-understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized dataset of over 4000 unique collection records. We assess how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Phenological trends in the pre- and post-breeding migration of long-distance migratory birds

Phenological mismatch is often cited as a putative driver of population declines in long-distance migratory birds. The mechanisms and cues utilized to advance breeding ground arrival will impact the adaptability of species to further warming. Furthermore, timing of post-breeding migration potentially faces diverging selective pressures, with earlier onset of tropical dry seasons favouring migration advancement, while longer growing seasons in temperate areas could facilitate delayed departures. Despite this, few studies exist of migration phenology on the non-breeding grounds or on post-breeding passage. Here, we use first arrival and last departure dates of 20 species of trans-Saharan migratory birds from tropical non-breeding grounds (The Gambia), between 1964 and 2019. Additionally, we use first arrival and last departure dates, as well as median arrival and departure dates, at an entry/departure site to/from Europe (Gibraltar), between 1991 and 2018. We assess phenological trends in pre- and post-breeding migration, as well as individual species' durations of stay in breeding and non-breeding areas. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which inter-annual variation in these timings may be explained by meteorological and ecological variables. We find significant advances in pre-breeding migration at both locations, while post-breeding migration is delayed. At Gibraltar, these trends do not differ between first/last and median dates of migration. The combination of these trends suggests substantial changes in the temporal usage of the two continents by migratory birds. Duration of stay (of species, not individuals) within Europe increased by 16 days, on average, over the 27-year monitoring period. By contrast, duration of species' stays on the non-breeding range declined by 63 days, on average, over the 56-year monitoring period. Taken together these changes suggest substantial, previously unreported alterations to annual routines in Afro-Palaearctic migrants.

Understanding the dynamics of Arctic animal migrations in a changing world

This is submitted as an introduction to the special collection on, “Arctic Migrations in a Changing World”.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Does Climate Warming Favour Early Season Species?

Plant species that start early in spring are generally more responsive to rising temperatures, raising concerns that climate warming may favour early season species and result in altered interspecific interactions and community structure and composition. This hypothesis is based on changes in spring phenology and therefore active growing season length, which would not be indicative of possible changes in growth as would changes in cumulative forcing temperatures (growing degree days/hours) in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study we analysed the effects of a moderate climate warming (2°C warmer than the 1981-2010 baseline) on the leaf-out of hypothetical species without chilling restriction and actual plant species with different chilling and forcing requirements in different parts of the globe. In both cases, early season species had larger phenological shifts due to low leaf-out temperatures, but accumulated fewer forcing gains (changes in cumulative forcing temperatures by warming) from those shifts because of their early spring phenology. Leaf-out time was closely associated with leaf-out temperatures and therefore plant phenological responses to climate warming. All plant species would be equally affected by climate warming in terms of total forcing gains added from higher temperatures when forcing gains occurring between early and late season species are included. Our findings will improve the understanding of possible mechanisms and consequences of differential responses in plant phenology to climate warming.

Temperature Control of Spring CO2 Fluxes at a Coniferous Forest and a Peat Bog in Central Siberia

Climate change impacts the characteristics of the vegetation carbon-uptake process in the northern Eurasian terrestrial ecosystem. However, the currently available direct CO2 flux measurement datasets, particularly for central Siberia, are insufficient for understanding the current condition in the northern Eurasian carbon cycle. Here, we report daily and seasonal interannual variations in CO2 fluxes and associated abiotic factors measured using eddy covariance in a coniferous forest and a bog near Zotino, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, for April to early June, 2013–2017. Despite the snow not being completely melted, both ecosystems became weak net CO2 sinks if the air temperature was warm enough for photosynthesis. The forest became a net CO2 sink 7–16 days earlier than the bog. After the surface soil temperature exceeded ~1 °C, the ecosystems became persistent net CO2 sinks. Net ecosystem productivity was highest in 2015 for both ecosystems because of the anomalously high air temperature in May compared with other years. Our findings demonstrate that long-term monitoring of flux measurements at the site level, particularly during winter and its transition to spring, is essential for understanding the responses of the northern Eurasian ecosystem to spring warming.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Widespread shifts in bird migration phenology are decoupled from parallel shifts in morphology

Advancements in phenology and changes in morphology, including body size reductions, are among the most commonly described responses to globally warming temperatures. Although these dynamics are routinely explored independently, the relationships among them and how their interactions facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change are poorly understood. In migratory species, advancing phenology may impose selection on morphological traits to increase migration speed. Advancing spring phenology might also expose species to cooler temperatures during the breeding season, potentially mitigating the effect of a warming global environment on body size. We use a dataset of birds that died after colliding with buildings in Chicago, IL to test whether changes in migration phenology are related to documented declines in body size and increases in wing length in 52 North American migratory bird species between 1978 and 2016. For each species, we estimate temporal trends in morphology and changes in the timing of migration. We then test for associations between species-specific rates of phenological and morphological changes while assessing the potential effects of migratory distance and breeding latitude. We show that spring migration through Chicago has advanced while the timing of fall migration has broadened as a result of early fall migrants advancing their migrations and late migrants delaying their migrations. Within species, we found that longer wing length was linked to earlier spring migration within years. However, we found no evidence that rates of phenological change across years, or migratory distance and breeding latitude, are predictive of rates of concurrent changes in morphological traits. These findings suggest that biotic responses to climate change are highly multidimensional and the extent to which those responses interact and influence adaptation to climate change requires careful examination.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Effect of temperature and its interaction with other meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery in Jilin Province, China

Bacterial dysentery (BD) brings a major disease burden to developing countries. Exploring the influence of temperature and its interaction with other meteorological factors on BD is significant for the prevention and early warning of BD in the context of climate change. Daily BD cases and meteorological data from 2008 to 2018 were collected in all nine prefecture-level cities in Jilin Province. A one-stage province-level model and a two-stage city-specific multivariate meta-pooled level distributed lag non-linear model were established to explore the correlation between temperature and BD, then the weather-stratified generalised additive model was used to test the interaction. During the study period, a total of 26 971 cases of BD were developed. The one-stage and two-stage cumulative dose-response ‘J’ curves overlapped, and results showed a positive correlation between temperature and BD with a 1–6 days lag effect. Age group ⩾5 years was found to be more sensitive to the effects. Moreover, there was a significant interaction between temperature, humidity and precipitation (P = 0.004, 0.002, respectively) on BD under high temperature (>0 °C), reminding residents and policymakers to pay attention to the prevention of BD in situations with both high temperature and humidity, high temperature and precipitation during the temperate monsoon climate.

Growth and behaviour of blue mussels, a re-emerging polar resident, follow a strong annual rhythm shaped by the extreme high Arctic light regime

Polar regions are currently warming at a rate above the global average. One issue of concern is the consequences on biodiversity in relation to the Northward latitudinal shift in distribution of temperate species. In the present study, lasting almost two years, we examined two phenological traits, i.e. the shell growth and behavioural rhythm of a recently re-established species in the high Arctic, the blue mussel Mytilus sp. We compared this with a native species, the Islandic scallop Chlamys islandica. We show marked differences in the examined traits between the two species. In Mytilus sp., a clear annual pattern of shell growth strongly correlated to the valve behaviour rhythmicity, whereas C. islandica exhibited a shell growth pattern with a total absence of annual rhythmicity of behaviour. The shell growth was highly correlated to the photoperiod for the mussels but weaker for the scallops. The water temperature cycle was a very weak parameter to anticipate the phenology traits of both species. This study shows that the new resident in the high Arctic, Mytilus sp., is a highly adaptive species, and therefore a promising bioindicator to study the consequences of biodiversity changes due to global warming.

Phenological Differentiation in Sugar Maple Populations and Responses of Bud Break to an Experimental Warming

Species with wide geographical ranges exhibit specific adaptations to local climates, which may result in diverging responses among populations to changing conditions. Climate change has advanced spring phenology worldwide, but questions of whether and how the phenological responses to warming differ among individuals across the natural range of a species remain. We conducted two experiments in January and April 2019, and performed daily observations of the timings of bud break in 1-year-old seedlings of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) from 25 Canadian provenances at two thermal conditions (14/10 and 18/14 °C day/night temperature) in a controlled environment. Overall, bud break started 6 days from the beginning of the experiments and finished after 125 days. The earlier events were observed in seedlings originating from the colder sites. Bud break was delayed by 4.8 days per additional degree Celsius in the mean annual temperature at the origin site. Warming advanced the timing of bud break by 17–27 days in January and by 3–8 days in April. Similar advancements in bud break were observed among provenances under warming conditions, which rejected our hypothesis that sugar maple populations have different phenological responses to warming. Our findings confirm the differentiation in ecotypes for the process of bud break in sugar maple. In cases of homogenous spring warming across the native range of sugar maple, similar advancements in bud phenology can be expected in different populations.

Reactive stress-coping styles show more variable reproductive expenditure and fitness outcomes

Stress-coping styles dictate how individuals react to stimuli and can be measured by the integrative physiological parameter of resting heart-rate variability (HRV); low resting HRV indicating proactive coping styles, while high resting HRV typifies reactive individuals. Over 5 successive breeding seasons we measured resting HRV of 57 lactating grey seals. Mothers showed consistent individual differences in resting HRV across years. We asked whether proactive and reactive mothers differed in their patterns of maternal expenditure and short-term fitness outcomes within seasons, using maternal daily mass loss rate to indicate expenditure, and pup daily mass gain to indicate within season fitness outcomes. We found no difference in average rates of maternal daily mass loss or pup daily mass gain between proactive and reactive mothers. However, reactive mothers deviated more from the sample mean for maternal daily mass and pup daily mass gain than proactive mothers. Thus, while proactive mothers exhibit average expenditure strategies with average outcomes, expenditure varies much more among reactive mothers with more variable outcomes. Overall, however, mean fitness was equal across coping styles, providing a mechanism for maintaining coping style diversity within populations. Variability in reactive mothers’ expenditures and success is likely a product of their attempts to match phenotype to prevailing environmental conditions, achieved with varying degrees of success.

Non-parallel changes in songbird migration timing are not explained by changes in stopover duration

Shifts in the timing of animal migration are widespread and well-documented; however, the mechanism underlying these changes is largely unknown. In this study, we test the hypothesis that systematic changes in stopover duration—the time that individuals spend resting and refueling at a site—are driving shifts in songbird migration timing. Specifically, we predicted that increases in stopover duration at our study site could generate increases in passage duration—the number of days that a study site is occupied by a particular species—by changing the temporal breadth of observations and vise versa. We analyzed an uninterrupted 46-year bird banding dataset from Massachusetts, USA using quantile regression, which allowed us to detect changes in early-and late-arriving birds, as well as changes in passage duration. We found that median spring migration had advanced by 1.04 days per decade; that these advances had strengthened over the last 13 years; and that early-and late-arriving birds were advancing in parallel, leading to negligible changes in the duration of spring passage at our site (+0.07 days per decade). In contrast, changes in fall migration were less consistent. Across species, we found that median fall migration had delayed by 0.80 days per decade, and that changes were stronger in late-arriving birds, leading to an average increase in passage duration of 0.45 days per decade. Trends in stopover duration, however, were weak and negative and, as a result, could not explain any changes in passage duration. We discuss, and provide some evidence, that changes in population age-structure, cryptic geographic variation, or shifts in resource availability are consistent with increases in fall passage duration. Moreover, we demonstrate the importance of evaluating changes across the entire phenological distribution, rather than just the mean, and stress this as an important consideration for future studies.

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

An examination of climate-driven flowering-time shifts at large spatial scales over 153 years in a common weedy annual

PREMISE

Understanding species' responses to climate change is a critical challenge facing biologists today. Though many species are widespread, few studies of climate-driven shifts in flowering time have examined large continuous spatial scales for individual species. And even fewer studies have examined these shifts at time scales greater than a few decades.

METHODS

We used digitized herbarium specimens and PRISM climate data to produce the spatially and temporally broadest-scale study of flowering time in a single species to date, spanning the contiguous United States and 153 years (1863-2016) for a widespread weedy annual, Triodanis perfoliata (Campanulaceae). We examined factors driving phenological shifts as well as the roles of geographic and temporal scale in understanding these trends.

RESULTS

Year was a significant factor in both geospatial and climatic analyses, revealing that flowering time has advanced by ~9 days over the past ~150 years. We found that temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit, an understudied climatic parameter associated with evapotranspiration and water stress, were strongly associated with peak flowering. We also examined how sampling at different spatiotemporal scales influences the power to detect flowering-time shifts, finding that relatively large spatial and temporal scales are ideal for detecting flowering-time shifts in this widespread species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay of geospatial factors at different scales to examine how species respond to climate change.

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socioecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here, we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of (1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and (2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases, and human health, recreation, and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socioecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Response of ecosystem water use efficiency to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) is a popular issue in the comprehensive study of climate change, ecology, and hydrology. Currently, views on the response of EWUE to temperature, precipitation, and drought remain controversial. Based on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) datasets, both of which were retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the Carnegie Ames Stanford approach (CASA) and surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL) models, respectively, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between EWUE and temperature, precipitation, and drought in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The results showed that EWUE had an obvious temporal change trend in the Tianshan Mountains. The EWUEs of all vegetation types presented an increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in autumn. These results led to a phase shift in the annual cycle of EWUE over the years. Compared with 2000 to 2003, from 2012 to 2016, the annual EWUE cycle had advanced by 32 days. Precipitation generally had a negative effect on EWUE, while temperature had an obvious positive effect on EWUE. The EWUE responses to drought for the different vegetation types showed a variety of change trends. With the increase in drought stress, EWUE not only showed a simple upward or downward trend but also showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend or a downward trend followed by an upward trend. EWUE is more sensitive to changing environments than NPP or ET and is more suitable for analyzing ecosystem responses to global change.

Discrepancies in vegetation phenology trends and shift patterns in different climatic zones in middle and eastern Eurasia between 1982 and 2015

Changes in vegetation phenology directly reflect the response of vegetation growth to climate change. In this study, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset from 1982 to 2015, we extracted start date of vegetation growing season (SOS), end date of vegetation growing season (EOS), and length of vegetation growing season (LOS) in the middle and eastern Eurasia region and evaluated linear trends in SOS, EOS, and LOS for the entire study area, as well as for four climatic zones. The results show that the LOS has significantly increased by 0.27 days/year, mostly due to a significantly advanced SOS (-0.20 days/year) and a slightly delayed EOS (0.07 days/year) over the entire study area from 1982 to 2015. The vegetation phenology trends in the four climatic zones are not continuous throughout the 34-year period. Furthermore, discrepancies in the shifting patterns of vegetation phenology trend existed among different climatic zones. Turning points (TP) of SOS trends in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the mid- or late 1990s. The advanced trends of SOS in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone exhibited accelerated, stalled, and reversed patterns after the corresponding TP, respectively. The TP did not occurred in Cold-Temperate zone, where the SOS showed a consistent and continuous advance. TPs of EOS trends in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the late 1980s or mid-1990s. The EOS in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone showed weak advanced or delayed trends after the corresponding TP, which were comparable with the delayed trends before the corresponding TP. The shift patterns of LOS trends were primarily influenced by the shift patterns of SOS trends and were also heterogeneous within climatic zones.

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

Local snow melt and temperature-but not regional sea ice-explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long-term time series of spring leaf-out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.

The influence of spectral composition on spring and autumn phenology in trees

Several recent reviews highlight the molecular mechanisms that underpin phenological responses to temperature and photoperiod; however, these have mostly overlooked the influence of solar radiation and its spectral composition on these processes. For instance, solar radiation in the blue and ultraviolet (UV) regions of the spectrum, as well as the red/far-red (R:FR) ratio, can influence spring and autumn phenology. Solar radiation reaching the Earth changes diurnally and seasonally; however, rising global temperatures, latitudinal range shifts and light pollution are likely to produce novel combinations of phenological cues for tree species. Here, we review the literature on phenological responses to spectral composition. Our objective was to explore the natural variation in spectral composition using radiative transfer models and to reveal any species-specific or ecotype-specific responses relating to latitudinal origin. These responses are likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes where spectral composition varies most throughout the year. For instance, trees from high latitudes tend to be more sensitive to changes in R:FR than those from low latitudes. The effects of blue light and UV radiation on phenology have not been studied as much as those of R:FR, but the limited results available suggest both could be candidate cues affecting autumn leaf colouration and senescence. Failure of more-southern species and ecotypes to adapt and use spectral cues during northwards range shifts could result in mistimed phenology, potentially resulting in frost damage, reduced fitness and limited range expansion. Future areas for research should look to establish how consistently different functional types of tree respond to spectral cues and identify photoreceptor-mediated mechanisms that allow plants to combine information from multiple light cues to coordinate the timing of phenological events. It should then be feasible to consider the synchronous or sequential action of light cues within a hierarchy of environmental factors regulating phenology.

Mapping Winter Wheat Planting Area and Monitoring Its Phenology Using Sentinel-1 Backscatter Time Series

Crop planting area mapping and phenology monitoring are of great importance to analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In this study, crop planting area and phenology were identified based on Sentinel-1 backscatter time series in the test region of the North China Plain, East Asia, which has a stable cropping pattern and similar phenological stages across the region. Ground phenological observations acquired from a typical agro-meteorological station were used as a priori knowledge. A parallelepiped classifier processed VH (vertical transmitting, horizontal receiving) and VV (vertical transmitting, vertical receiving) backscatter signals in order to map the winter wheat planting area. An accuracy assessment showed that the total classification accuracy reached 84% and the Kappa coefficient was 0.77. Both the difference ( σ d ) between VH and VV and its slope were obtained to contrast with a priori knowledge and then used to extract the phenological metrics. Our findings from the analysis of the time series showed that the seedling, tillering, overwintering, jointing, and heading of winter wheat may be closely related to σ d and its slope. Overall, this study presents a generalizable methodology for mapping the winter wheat planting area and monitoring phenology using Sentinel-1 backscatter time series, especially in areas lacking optical remote sensing data. Our results suggest that the main change in Sentinel-1 backscatter is dominated by the vegetation canopy structure, which is different from the established methods using optical remote sensing data, and it is available for phenological metrics extraction.

Climate communication for biologists: When a picture can tell a thousand words

Pictures often tell a story better than the proverbial 1,000 words. However, in connection with climate change, many pictures can be highly misleading, for example, when a snowball is used to ridicule the notion of global warming or when a picture of a dead crop is supposed to alert people to climate change. We differentiate between such inappropriate pictures and those that can be used legitimately because they capture long-term trends. For example, photos of a glacier's retreat are legitimate indicators of the long-term mass balance loss that is observed for the vast majority of glaciers around the world.