Relative efficacy of three approaches to mitigate Crown-of-Thorns Starfish outbreaks on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Advancing projections of crown-of-thorns starfish to support management interventions

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown of Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster spp.; CoTS) cause substantial coral mortality throughout the Indo-Pacific, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Refining CoTS population density modelling and understanding the disparities between real-world observations and model predictions is crucial for developing effective control strategies. Using a spatially explicit ecosystem model of the GBR, we compared CoTS density model predictions to observations and incorporated a new zone-specific mortality rate to account for differences in predation of CoTS between fished and protected reefs. We found high congruence between predictions and observations: ∼81 % of categorical reef level CoTS densities matched or only differed by one category. However, underpredictions increased with higher observed densities. Zone-specific CoTS mortality reduced severe underpredictions from 7.1 % to 5.6 %, which is critical for managers as underpredictions indicate missing outbreaks where targeted culling is necessary, but also lead to underestimated coral loss attributed to CoTS outbreaks. Reef protection status affected prediction accuracy, highlighting the importance of further research on in situ CoTS mortality rates. The location of a reef inside or outside the "initiation box", a speculative area of primary outbreaks (i.e., initial abrupt population increases) on the GBR, also influenced accuracy, with exact predictions more likely outside. Accurately modelling initiation box dynamics is challenging due to limited empirical data on CoTS outbreaks, highlighting the need for focussed research on outbreak dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Spatial factors, such as region and shelf position, contributed to the variance between observations and predictions, underscoring the importance of the spatial-temporal context of each observation. Observations of CoTS can help refine model predictions, guide targeted control measures, and contribute to effective ecosystem management for the long-term resilience of the GBR and other reefs targeted by CoTS throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January-March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth's greatest natural wonders.

Chemosensory behaviour of juvenile crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.), attraction to algal and coral food and avoidance of adult conspecifics

Intraspecific and habitat-mediated responses to chemical cues play key roles in structuring populations of marine species. We investigated the behaviour of herbivorous-stage juvenile crown-of-thorns sea stars (COTS; Acanthaster sp.) in flow-through choice chambers to determine if chemical cues from their habitat influence movement and their transition to become coral predators. Juveniles at the diet transition stage were exposed to cues from their nursery habitat (coral rubble-crustose coralline algae (CCA)), live coral and adult COTS to determine if waterborne cues influence movement. In response to CCA and coral as sole cues, juveniles moved towards the cue source and when these cues were presented in combination, they exhibited a preference for coral. Juveniles moved away from adult COTS cues. Exposure to food cues (coral, CCA) in the presence of adult cues resulted in variable responses. Our results suggest a feedback mechanism whereby juvenile behaviour is mediated by adult chemical cues. Cues from the adult population may deter juveniles from the switch to corallivory. As outbreaks wane, juveniles released from competition may serve as a proximate source of outbreaks, supporting the juveniles-in-waiting hypothesis. The accumulation of juveniles within the reef infrastructure is an underappreciated potential source of COTS outbreaks that devastate coral reefs.

Protecting Great Barrier Reef resilience through effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay-Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975-2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:401-418. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Improving coral cover using an integrated pest management framework

Integrated pest management (IPM) leverages our understanding of ecological interactions to mitigate the impact of pest species on economically and/or ecologically important assets. It has primarily been applied in terrestrial settings (e.g., agriculture), but has rarely been attempted for marine ecosystems. The crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS), Acanthaster spp., is a voracious coral predator throughout the Indo-Pacific where it undergoes large population increases (irruptions), termed outbreaks. During outbreaks CoTS act as a pest species and can result in substantial coral loss. Contemporary management of CoTS on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) adopts facets of the IPM paradigm to manage these outbreaks through strategic use of direct manual control (culling) of individuals in response to ecologically based target thresholds. There has, however, been limited quantitative analysis of how to optimize the implementation of such thresholds. Here we use a multispecies modeling approach to assess the performance of alternative CoTS management scenarios for improving coral cover trajectories. The scenarios examined varied in terms of their ecological threshold target, the sensitivity of the threshold, and the level of management resourcing. Our approach illustrates how to quantify multidimensional trade-offs in resourcing constraints, concurrent CoTS and coral population dynamics, the stringency of target thresholds, and the geographical scale of management outcomes (number of sites). We found strategies with low target density thresholds for CoTS (≤0.03 CoTS min-1 ) could act as "Effort Sinks" and limit the number of sites that could be effectively controlled, particularly under CoTS population outbreaks. This was because a handful of sites took longer to control, which meant other sites were not controlled. Higher density thresholds (e.g., 0.04-0.08 CoTS min-1 ), tuned to levels of coral cover, diluted resources among sites but were more robust to resourcing constraints and pest population dynamics. Our study highlights trade-off decisions when using an IPM framework and informs the implementation of threshold-based strategies on the GBR.

Juvenile waiting stage crown-of-thorns sea stars are resilient in heatwave conditions that bleach and kill corals

The juveniles of predatory sea stars can remain in their recruitment-nursery habitat for some time before their ontogenetic shift to the adult habitat and diet. These small juveniles are vulnerable to a range of factors with their sensitivity amplified by climate change-driven ocean warming. We investigate the thermal tolerance of the waiting stage herbivorous juveniles of the keystone coral predator, the crown-of-thorns sea star (COTS, Acanthaster sp.), in context with the degree heating weeks (DHW) model that predicts coral bleaching and mass mortality. In temperature treatments ranging from +1 to 3°C in prolonged heatwave acclimation conditions, the juveniles exhibited ~100% survival in DHW scenarios that trigger coral bleaching (4 DHW), resulting in mass mortality of corals (8 DHW) and extreme conditions well beyond those that kill corals (12 DHW). This indicates that herbivorous juvenile COTS are far more resistant to heatwave conditions than the coral prey of the adults. The juveniles exhibited higher activity (righting) and metabolic rate after weeks in increased temperature. In separate acute temperature experiments, the upper thermal limit of the juveniles was 34-36°C. In a warming world, juvenile COTS residing in their coral rubble nursery habitat will benefit from an increase in the extent of this habitat due to coral mortality. The juveniles have potential for long-term persistence as herbivores as they wait for live coral to recover before becoming coral predators, thereby serving as a proximate source of COTS outbreaks on reefs already in a tenuous state due to climate change.

Increasing densities of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) at Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef, resolved using a novel survey method

Recurrent population irruptions of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster cf. solaris) are among the foremost causes of coral mortality on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Early intervention during the initiation of new population irruptions represents the best opportunity to effectively manage this threat. However, current survey methods are not sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in CoTS densities during the early onset of population irruptions. Using scooter-assisted large area diver-based (SALAD) surveys, this study revealed increasing densities of CoTS at Lizard Island from 2019 to 2022. Inferred densities of adult CoTS (which account for distinct sets of observed feeding scars where starfish were not detected) increased from 4.90 ha-1 (± 0.85 SE) in 2019 to 17.71 ha-1 (± 2.3 SE) in 2022. A wide range of size classes were recorded suggesting that recruitment over several years is contributing to increasing densities. Importantly, the sustained density increases reported here denote that renewed CoTS population irruptions may soon become fully established at Lizard Island and more broadly in the northern GBR, especially without early intervention through effective population management.

Linking differences in microbial network structure with changes in coral larval settlement

Coral cover and recruitment have decreased on reefs worldwide due to climate change-related disturbances. Achieving reliable coral larval settlement under aquaculture conditions is critical for reef restoration programmes; however, this can be challenging due to the lack of reliable and universal larval settlement cues. To investigate the role of microorganisms in coral larval settlement, we undertook a settlement choice experiment with larvae of the coral Acropora tenuis and microbial biofilms grown for different periods on the reef and in aquaria. Biofilm community composition across conditioning types and time was profiled using 16S and 18S rRNA gene sequencing. Co-occurrence networks revealed that strong larval settlement correlated with diverse biofilm communities, with specific nodes in the network facilitating connections between modules comprised of low- vs high-settlement communities. Taxa associated with high-settlement communities were identified as Myxoccales sp., Granulosicoccus sp., Alcanivoraceae sp., unassigned JTB23 sp. (Gammaproteobacteria), and Pseudovibrio denitrificans. Meanwhile, taxa closely related to Reichenbachiella agariperforans, Pleurocapsa sp., Alcanivorax sp., Sneathiella limmimaris, as well as several diatom and brown algae were associated with low settlement. Our results characterise high-settlement biofilm communities and identify transitionary taxa that may develop settlement-inducing biofilms to improve coral larval settlement in aquaculture.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

Setting sustainable limits on anchoring to improve the resilience of coral reefs

Boat anchoring is common at coral reefs that have high economic or social value, but anchoring has received relatively little attention in reef resilience studies. We developed an individual-based model of coral populations and simulated the effects of anchor damage over time. The model allowed us to estimate the carrying capacity of anchoring for four different coral assemblages and different starting levels of coral cover. The carrying capacity of small to medium-sized recreational vessels across these four assemblages was between 0 and 3.1 anchor strikes ha^-1 day^-1. In a case study of two Great Barrier Reef archipelagos, we modelled the benefits of anchoring mitigation under bleaching regimes expected for four climate scenarios. The partial mitigation of even a very mild anchoring incidence (1.17 strikes ha^-1 day^-1) resulted in median coral gains of 2.6-7.7 % absolute cover under RCP2.6, though benefits varied temporally and depended on the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model used.

Biochemical metabolomic profiling of the Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster): New insight into its biology for improved pest management

The Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (COTS), Acanthaster species, is a voracious coral predator that destroys coral reefs when in outbreak status. The baseline metabolite and lipid biomolecules of 10 COTS tissues, including eggs from gravid females, were investigated in this study to provide insight into their biology and identify avenues for control. Targeted and untargeted metabolite- and lipidomics-based mass spectrometry approaches were used to obtain tissue-specific metabolite and lipid profiles. Across all COTS tissues, 410 metabolites and 367 lipids were identified. Most abundant were amino acids and peptides (18.7%) and wax esters (17%). There were 262 metabolites and 192 lipids identified in COTS eggs. Wax esters were more abundant in the eggs (30%) followed by triacylglycerols (TG), amino acids, and peptides. The diversity of asterosaponins in eggs (34) was higher than in tissues (2). Several asterosaponins known to modulate sperm acrosome reaction were putatively identified, including glycoside B, asterosaponin-4 (Co-Aris III), and regularoside B (asterosaponin A). The saponins saponin A, thornasteroside A, hillaside B, and non-saponins dictyol J and axinellamine B which have been shown to possess defensive properties, were found in abundance in gonads, skin, and radial nerve tissues. Inosine and 2-hexyldecanoic acid are the most abundant metabolites in tissues and eggs. As a secondary metabolite of purine degradation, inosine plays an important role in purine biosynthesis, while 2-hexyldecanoic acid is known to suppress side-chain crystallization during the synthesis of amphiphilic macromolecules (i.e., phospholipids). These significant spatial changes in metabolite, lipid, and asterosaponin profiles enabled unique insights into key biological tissue-specific processes that could be manipulated to better control COTS populations. Our findings highlight COTS as a novel source of molecules with therapeutic and cosmetic properties (ceramides, sphingolipids, carnosine, and inosine). These outcomes will be highly relevant for the development of strategies for COTS management including chemotaxis-based biocontrol and exploitation of COTS carcasses for the extraction of commercial molecules.

Coral restoration and adaptation in Australia: The first five years

While coral reefs in Australia have historically been a showcase of conventional management informed by research, recent declines in coral cover have triggered efforts to innovate and integrate intervention and restoration actions into management frameworks. Here we outline the multi-faceted intervention approaches that have developed in Australia since 2017, from newly implemented in-water programs, research to enhance coral resilience and investigations into socio-economic perspectives on restoration goals. We describe in-water projects using coral gardening, substrate stabilisation, coral repositioning, macro-algae removal, and larval-based restoration techniques. Three areas of research focus are also presented to illustrate the breadth of Australian research on coral restoration, (1) the transdisciplinary Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP), one of the world's largest research and development programs focused on coral reefs, (2) interventions to enhance coral performance under climate change, and (3) research into socio-cultural perspectives. Together, these projects and the recent research focus reflect an increasing urgency for action to confront the coral reef crisis, develop new and additional tools to manage coral reefs, and the consequent increase in funding opportunities and management appetite for implementation. The rapid progress in trialling and deploying coral restoration in Australia builds on decades of overseas experience, and advances in research and development are showing positive signs that coral restoration can be a valuable tool to improve resilience at local scales (i.e., high early survival rates across a variety of methods and coral species, strong community engagement with local stakeholders). RRAP is focused on creating interventions to help coral reefs at multiple scales, from micro scales (i.e., interventions targeting small areas within a specific reef site) to large scales (i.e., interventions targeting core ecosystem function and social-economic values at multiple select sites across the Great Barrier Reef) to resist, adapt to and recover from the impacts of climate change. None of these interventions aim to single-handedly restore the entirety of the Great Barrier Reef, nor do they negate the importance of urgent climate change mitigation action.

Sampling re-design increases power to detect change in the Great Barrier Reef's inshore water quality

Monitoring programs are fundamental to understanding the state and trend of aquatic ecosystems. Sampling designs are a crucial component of monitoring programs and ensure that measurements evaluate progress toward clearly stated management objectives, which provides a mechanism for adaptive management. Here, we use a well-established marine monitoring program for inshore water quality in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia to investigate whether a sampling re-design has increased the program's capacity to meet its primary objectives. Specifically, we use bootstrap resampling to assess the change in statistical power to detect temporal water quality trends in a 15-year inshore marine water quality data set that includes data from both before and after the sampling re-design. We perform a comprehensive power analysis for six water quality analytes at four separate study areas in the GBR Marine Park and find that the sampling re-design (i) increased power to detect trends in 23 of the 24 analyte-study area combinations, and (ii) resulted in an average increase in power of 34% to detect increasing or decreasing trends in water quality analytes. This increase in power is attributed more to the addition of sampling locations than increasing the sampling rate. Therefore, the sampling re-design has substantially increased the capacity of the program to detect temporal trends in inshore marine water quality. Further improvements in sampling design need to focus on the program's capability to reliably detect trends within realistic timeframes where inshore improvements to water quality can be expected to occur.

Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios

Management of coral predators, corallivores, is recommended to improve coral cover on tropical coral reefs under projected increasing levels of accumulated thermal stress, but whether corallivore management can improve coral cover, which is necessary for large-scale operationalisation, remains equivocal. Here, using a multispecies ecosystem model, we investigate intensive management of an invertebrate corallivore, the Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and show that culling could improve coral cover at sub-reef spatial scales, but efficacy varied substantially within and among reefs. Simulated thermal stress events attenuated management-derived coral cover improvements and was dependent on the level of accumulated thermal stress, the thermal sensitivity of coral communities and the rate of corallivore recruitment at fine spatial scales. Corallivore management was most effective when accumulated thermal stress was low, coral communities were less sensitive to heat stress and in areas of high corallivore recruitment success. Our analysis informs how to manage a pest species to promote coral cover under future thermal stress events.

This study uses multispecies modelling to show that the management of a coral predator, the crown-of-thorns starfish, could help corals recover following bleaching events. They show that management was most effective when heat stress severity for corals was low to moderate, when corals had lower heat sensitivity and when the recruitment rate of starfish was high.

Crown of thorns starfish life-history traits contribute to outbreaks, a continuing concern for coral reefs

Crown of thorns starfish (COTS, Acanthaster sp.) are notorious for their destructive consumption of coral that decimates tropical reefs, an attribute unique among tropical marine invertebrates. Their populations can rapidly increase from 0–1 COTS ha⁻¹ to more than 10–1000 COTS ha⁻¹ in short order causing a drastic change to benthic communities and reducing the functional and species diversity of coral reef ecosystems. Population outbreaks were first identified to be a significant threat to coral reefs in the 1960s. Since then, they have become one of the leading causes of coral loss along with coral bleaching. Decades of research and significant investment in Australia and elsewhere, particularly Japan, have been directed towards identifying, understanding, and managing the potential causes of outbreaks and designing population control methods. Despite this, the drivers of outbreaks remain elusive. What is becoming increasingly clear is that the success of COTS is tied to their inherent biological traits, especially in early life. Survival of larval and juvenile COTS is likely to be enhanced by their dietary flexibility and resilience to variable food conditions as well as their phenotypically plastic growth dynamics, all magnified by the extreme reproductive potential of COTS. These traits enable COTS to capitalise on anthropogenic disturbances to reef systems as well as endure less favourable conditions.

Fish predators control outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.) have caused persistent and widespread loss of coral cover across Indo-Pacific coral reefs. The potential drivers of these outbreaks have been debated for more than 50 years, hindering effective management to limit their destructive impacts. Here, we show that fish biomass removal through commercial and recreational fisheries may be a major driver of CoTS population outbreaks. CoTS densities increase systematically with increasing fish biomass removal, including for known CoTS predators. Moreover, the biomass of fish species and families that influence CoTS densities are 1.4 to 2.1-fold higher on reefs within no-take marine reserves, while CoTS densities are 2.8-fold higher on reefs that are open to fishing, indicating the applicability of fisheries-based management to prevent CoTS outbreaks. Designing targeted fisheries management with consideration of CoTS population dynamics may offer a tangible and promising contribution to effectively reduce the detrimental impacts of CoTS outbreaks across the Indo-Pacific.

DNA-Based Detection and Patterns of Larval Settlement of the Corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star (Acanthaster sp.)

AbstractPopulation irruptions of the western Pacific crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.) are a perennial threat to coral reefs and may be initiated by fluctuations in reproductive or settlement success. However, the processes dictating their early life history, particularly larval settlement, remain poorly understood given limitations in sampling larvae and newly settled juveniles in the field. Here, we introduce an innovative method to measure crown-of-thorns sea star settlement, using artificial settlement collectors and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction based on crown-of-thorns sea star-specific mitochondrial DNA primers. This study demonstrated the utility of this method and explored temporal and spatial patterns of crown-of-thorns sea star settlement on the Great Barrier Reef from 2016 to 2020. Settlement varied considerably between sampling periods at Rib Reef and peaked between October 2016 and January 2017. Our results further suggest that crown-of-thorns sea star larvae readily settle in shallow reef environments, with no preferential settlement detected between depths tested (4-12 m). Substantial variation between Great Barrier Reef regions was revealed in 2019-2020, because collectors deployed on reefs in the central Great Barrier Reef were >10 times as likely to record newly settled crown-of-thorns sea stars as reefs in the northern Great Barrier Reef near Lizard Island. The trends reported here add to our understanding of this critical life-history stage; however, further method validation and larger-scale studies are needed to address pertinent information gaps, such as the stock-recruitment dynamics of this species. Most importantly, fluctuations in crown-of-thorns sea star settlement can now be detected using this sampling protocol, which demonstrates its utility in heralding new and renewed population irruptions of this destructive sea star.

Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades.

Homing behaviour by destructive crown-of-thorns starfish is triggered by local availability of coral prey

Corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.) can decimate coral assemblages on Indo-Pacific coral reefs during population outbreaks. While initial drivers of population irruptions leading to outbreaks remain largely unknown, subsequent dispersal of outbreaks appears coincident with depletion of coral prey. Here, we used in situ time-lapse photography to characterize movement of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) in the northern and southern Great Barrier Reef in 2015, during the fourth recorded population outbreak of the starfish, but prior to widespread coral bleaching. Daily tracking of 58 individuals over a total of 1117 h revealed all starfish to move a minimum of 0.52 m, with around half of all tracked starfish showing negligible daily displacement (less than 1 m day^-1), ranging up to a maximum of 19 m day^-1. Movement was primarily nocturnal and daily displacement varied spatially with variation in local availability of Acropora spp., which is the preferred coral prey. Two distinct behavioural modes emerged: (i) homing movement, whereby tracked paths (as tested against a random-walk-model) involved short displacement distances following distinct 'outward' movement to Acropora prey (typically displaying 'feeding scars') and 'homebound' movement to nearby shelter; versus (ii) roaming movement, whereby individuals showed directional movement beyond initial tracking positions without return. Logistic modelling revealed more than half of all tracked starfish demonstrated homing when local abundance (percentage cover) of preferred Acropora coral prey was greater than 33%. Our results reveal facultative homing by Acanthaster with the prey-dependent behavioural switch to roaming forays providing a mechanism explaining localized aggregations and diffusion of these population irruptions as prey is locally depleted.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.