Prostate cancer risk prediction using a polygenic risk score

Preliminary effects of risk-adapted PSA screening for prostate cancer after integrating PRS-specific and age-specific variation

Background

Although the risk of prostate cancer (PCa) varies across different ages and genetic risks, it's unclear about the effects of genetic-specific and age-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for PCa.

Methods

Weighed and unweighted polygenic risk scores (PRS) were constructed to classify the participants from the PLCO trial into low- or high-PRS groups. The age-specific and PRS-specific cut-off values of PSA for PCa screening were determined with time-dependent receiver-operating-characteristic curves and area-under-curves (tdAUCs). Improved screening strategies integrating PRS-specific and age-specific cut-off values of PSA were compared to traditional PSA screening on accuracy, detection rates of high-grade PCa (Gleason score ≥7), and false positive rate.

Results

Weighted PRS with 80 SNPs significantly associated with PCa was determined as the optimal PRS, with an AUC of 0.631. After stratifying by PRS, the tdAUCs of PSA with a 10-year risk of PCa were 0.818 and 0.816 for low- and high-PRS groups, whereas the cut-off values were 1.42 and 1.62 ng/mL, respectively. After further stratifying by age, the age-specific cut-off values of PSA were relatively lower for low PRS (1.42, 1.65, 1.60, and 2.24 ng/mL for aged <60, 60-64, 65-69, and ≥70 years) than high PRS (1.48, 1.47, 1.89, and 2.72 ng/mL). Further analyses showed an obvious interaction of positive PSA and high PRS on PCa incidence and mortality. Very small difference in PCa risk were observed among subgroups with PSA (-) across different age and PRS, and PCa incidence and mortality with PSA (+) significantly increased as age and PRS, with highest risk for high-PRS/PSA (+) in participants aged ≥70 years [HRs (95%CI): 16.00 (12.62-20.29) and 19.48 (9.26-40.96)]. The recommended screening strategy reduced 12.8% of missed PCa, ensured high specificity, but not caused excessive false positives than traditional PSA screening.

Conclusion

Risk-adapted screening integrating PRS-specific and age-specific cut-off values of PSA would be more effective than traditional PSA screening.

A Polygenic Risk Analysis for Identifying Ulcerative Colitis Patients with European Ancestry

The incidence of ulcerative colitis (UC) has increased globally. As a complex disease, the genetic predisposition for UC could be estimated by the polygenic risk score (PRS), which aggregates the effects of a large number of genetic variants in a single quantity and shows promise in identifying individuals at higher lifetime risk of UC. Here, based on a cohort of 2869 UC cases and 2900 controls with genotype array datasets, we used PRSice-2 to calculate PRS, and systematically analyzed factors that could affect the power of PRS, including GWAS summary statistics, population stratification, and impact of variants. After leveraging a stepwise condition analysis, we eventually established the best PRS model, achieving an AUC of 0.713. Meanwhile, samples in the top 20% of the PRS distribution had a risk of UC more than ten times higher than samples in the lowest 20% (OR = 10.435, 95% CI 8.571-12.703). Our analyses demonstrated that including population-enriched, more disease-associated SNPs and using GWAS summary statistics from similar ethnic background can improve the power of PRS. Strictly following the principle of focusing on one population in all aspects of generating PRS can be a cost-effective way to apply genotype-array-derived PRS to practical risk estimation.

Assessing the Clinical Utility of Published Prostate Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in a Large Biobank Data Set

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed to identify men with the highest risk of prostate cancer. Our aim was to compare the performance of 16 PRSs in identifying men at risk of developing prostate cancer and then to evaluate the performance of the top-performing PRSs in differentiating individuals at risk of aggressive prostate cancer.

METHODS

For this case-control study we downloaded 16 published PRSs from the Polygenic Score Catalog on May 28, 2021 and applied them to Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) patients. Cases were matched to the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC) registry to obtain granular clinical and pathological data. MGI prospectively enrolls patients undergoing surgery at the University of Michigan, and MUSIC is a multi-institutional registry that prospectively tracks demographic, treatment, and clinical variables. The predictive performance of each PRS was evaluated using the area under the covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic curve (aAUC), and the association between PRS and disease aggressiveness according to prostate biopsy data was measured using logistic regression.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

We included 18 050 patients in the analysis, of whom 15 310 were control subjects and 2740 were prostate cancer cases. The median age was 66.1 yr (interquartile range 59.9-71.6) for cases and 56.6 yr (interquartile range 42.6-66.7) for control subjects. The PRS performance in predicting the risk of developing prostate cancer according to aAUC ranged from 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.53) to 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.68). By contrast, there was no association between PRS and disease aggressiveness.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Prostate cancer PRSs have modest real-world performance in identifying patients at higher risk of developing prostate cancer; however, they are limited in distinguishing patients with indolent versus aggressive disease.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Risk scores using data for multiple genes (called polygenic risk scores) can identify men at higher risk of developing prostate cancer. However, these scores need to be refined to be able to identify men with the highest risk for clinically significant prostate cancer.

Clinical features of prostate cancer by polygenic risk score

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 290 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with prostate cancer. These SNVs can be combined to generate a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS), which estimates an individual's risk to develop prostate cancer. Identifying individuals at higher risk for prostate cancer using PRS could allow for personalized screening recommendations, improve current screening tools, and potentially result in improved survival rates, but more research is needed before incorporating them into clinical use. Our study aimed to investigate associations between PRS and clinical factors in affected individuals, including age of diagnosis, metastases, histology, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group (GG) and family history of prostate cancer, while taking into account germline genetic testing in known prostate cancer related genes. To evaluate the relationship between these clinical factors and PRS, a quantitative retrospective chart review of 250 individuals of European ancestry diagnosed with prostate cancer who received genetic counseling services at The Ohio State University's Genitourinary Cancer Genetics Clinic and a 72-SNV PRS through Ambry Genetics, was performed. We found significant associations between higher PRS and younger age of diagnosis (p = 0.002), lower frequency of metastases (p = 0.006), and having a first-degree relative diagnosed with prostate cancer (p = 0.024). We did not observe significant associations between PRS and ISUP GG, histology or a having a second-degree relative with prostate cancer. These findings provide insights into features associated with higher PRS, but larger multi-ancestral studies using PRS that are informative across populations are needed to understand its clinical utility.

Genomic and Phenotypic Biomarkers for Precision Medicine Guidance in Advanced Prostate Cancer

OPINION STATEMENT

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most diagnosed malignant neoplasm and is one of the leading causes of cancer-related death in men worldwide. Despite significant advances in screening and treatment of PCa, given the heterogeneity of this disease, optimal personalized therapeutic strategies remain limited. However, emerging predictive and prognostic biomarkers based on individual patient profiles in combination with computer-assisted diagnostics have the potential to guide precision medicine, where patients may benefit from therapeutic approaches optimally suited to their disease. Also, the integration of genotypic and phenotypic diagnostic methods is supporting better informed treatment decisions. Focusing on advanced PCa, this review discusses polygenic risk scores for screening of PCa and common genomic aberrations in androgen receptor (AR), PTEN-PI3K-AKT, and DNA damage response (DDR) pathways, considering clinical implications for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment prediction. Furthermore, we evaluate liquid biopsy, protein biomarkers such as serum testosterone levels, SLFN11 expression, total alkaline phosphatase (tALP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), tissue biopsy, and advanced imaging tools, summarizing current phenotypic biomarkers and envisaging more effective utilization of diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in advanced PCa. We conclude that prognostic and treatment predictive biomarker discovery can improve the management of patients, especially in metastatic stages of advanced PCa. This will result in decreased mortality and enhanced quality of life and help design a personalized treatment regimen.

Increased risk of pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers in men with a family history of breast cancer: A population-based study

The association between a family history of breast cancer (FHBC) in female first-degree relatives (FDRs) and cancer risk in men has not been evaluated. This study aimed to compare the risks of overall and site-specific cancers in men with and without FHBC. A population-based study was conducted with 3 329 106 men aged ≥40 years who underwent national cancer screening between 2013 and 2014. Men with and without FHBC in their female FDRs were age-matched in a 1:4 ratio. Men without FHBC were defined as those without a family history of any cancer type in their FDRs. Data from 69 124 men with FHBC and 276 496 men without FHBC were analyzed. The mean follow-up period was 4.7 ± 0.9 years. Men with an FHBC in any FDR (mother or sister) had a higher risk of pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers than those without an FHBC (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.35 (1.07-1.70), 1.33 (1.12-1.56), 1.28 (1.13-1.44) and 3.03 (1.130-8.17), respectively). Although an FHBC in any one of the FDRs was not associated with overall cancer risk, FHBC in both mother and sibling was a significant risk factor for overall cancer (aHR: 1.69, 95% CI:1.11-2.57) and increased the risk of thyroid cancer by 3.41-fold (95% CI: 1.10-10.61). FHBC in the mother or sister was a significant risk factor for pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers in men; therefore, men with FHBC may require more careful BRCA1/2 mutation-related cancer surveillance.

Predicting Cancer Risk from Germline Whole-exome Sequencing Data Using a Novel Context-based Variant Aggregation Approach

Many studies have shown that the distributions of the genomic, nucleotide, and epigenetic contexts of somatic variants in tumors are informative of cancer etiology. Recently, a new direction of research has focused on extracting signals from the contexts of germline variants and evidence has emerged that patterns defined by these factors are associated with oncogenic pathways, histologic subtypes, and prognosis. It remains an open question whether aggregating germline variants using meta-features capturing their genomic, nucleotide, and epigenetic contexts can improve cancer risk prediction. This aggregation approach can potentially increase statistical power for detecting signals from rare variants, which have been hypothesized to be a major source of the missing heritability of cancer. Using germline whole-exome sequencing data from the UK Biobank, we developed risk models for 10 cancer types using known risk variants (cancer-associated SNPs and pathogenic variants in known cancer predisposition genes) as well as models that additionally include the meta-features. The meta-features did not improve the prediction accuracy of models based on known risk variants. It is possible that expanding the approach to whole-genome sequencing can lead to gains in prediction accuracy.

Significance

There is evidence that cancer is partly caused by rare genetic variants that have not yet been identified. We investigate this issue using novel statistical methods and data from the UK Biobank.

The Combined Effect of Polygenic Risk Score and Prostate Health Index in Chinese Men Undergoing Prostate Biopsy

To date, the combined effect of polygenic risk score (PRS) and prostate health index (phi) on PCa diagnosis in men undergoing prostate biopsy has never been investigated. A total of 3166 patients who underwent initial prostate biopsy in three tertiary medical centers from August 2013 to March 2019 were included. PRS was calculated on the basis of the genotype of 102 reported East-Asian-specific risk variants. It was then evaluated in the univariable or multivariable logistic regression models that were internally validated using repeated 10-fold cross-validation. Discriminative performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index. Compared with men in the first quintile of age and family history adjusted PRS, those in the second, third, fourth, and fifth quintiles were 1.86 (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-2.56), 2.07 (95%CI: 1.50-2.84), 3.26 (95%CI: 2.36-4.48), and 5.06 (95%CI: 3.68-6.97) times as likely to develop PCa (all p < 0.001). Adjustment for other clinical parameters yielded similar results. Among patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at 2-10 ng/mL or 2-20 ng/mL, PRS still had an observable ability to differentiate PCa in the group of prostate health index (phi) at 27-36 (P_trend < 0.05) or >36 (P_trend ≤ 0.001). Notably, men with moderate phi (27-36) but highest PRS (top 20% percentile) would have a comparable risk of PCa (positive rate: 26.7% or 31.3%) than men with high phi (>36) but lowest PRS (bottom 20% percentile positive rate: 27.4% or 34.2%). The combined model of PRS, phi, and other clinical risk factors provided significantly better performance (AUC: 0.904, 95%CI: 0.887-0.921) than models without PRS. Adding PRS to clinical risk models could provide significant net benefit (NRI, from 8.6% to 27.6%), especially in those early onset patients (NRI, from 29.2% to 44.9%). PRS may provide additional predictive value over phi for PCa. The combination of PRS and phi that effectively captured both clinical and genetic PCa risk is clinically practical, even in patients with gray-zone PSA.

Antioxidant enzyme and DNA base repair genetic risk scores' associations with systemic oxidative stress biomarker in pooled cross-sectional studies

Background: Oxidative stress is hypothesized to contribute to the pathogenesis of several chronic diseases. Numerous dietary and lifestyle factors are associated with oxidative stress; however, little is known about associations of genetic factors, individually or jointly with dietary and lifestyle factors, with oxidative stress in humans. Methods: We genotyped 22 haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 3 antioxidant enzyme (AE) genes and 79 SNPs in 14 DNA base excision repair (BER) genes to develop oxidative stress-specific AE and BER genetic risk scores (GRS) in two pooled cross-sectional studies (n = 245) of 30-74-year-old, White, cancer- and inflammatory bowel disease-free adults. Of the genotypes, based on their associations with a systemic oxidative stress biomarker, plasma F₂-isoprostanes (FiP) concentrations, we selected 4 GSTP1 SNPs for an AE GRS, and 12 SNPs of 5 genes (XRCC1, TDG, PNKP, MUTYH, and FEN1) for a BER GRS. We also calculated a previously-reported, validated, questionnaire-based, oxidative stress biomarker-weighted oxidative balance score (OBS) comprising 17 anti- and pro-oxidant dietary and lifestyle exposures, with higher scores representing a higher predominance of antioxidant exposures. We used general linear regression to assess adjusted mean FiP concentrations across GRS and OBS tertiles, separately and jointly. Results: The adjusted mean FiP concentrations among those in the highest relative to the lowest oxidative stress-specific AE and BER GRS tertiles were, proportionately, 11.8% (p = 0.12) and 21.2% (p = 0.002) higher, respectively. In the joint AE/BER GRS analysis, the highest estimated mean FiP concentration was among those with jointly high AE/BER GRS. Mean FiP concentrations across OBS tertiles were similar across AE and BER GRS strata. Conclusion: Our pilot study findings suggest that DNA BER, and possibly AE, genotypes collectively may be associated with systemic oxidative stress in humans, and support further research in larger, general populations.

Application of European-specific polygenic risk scores for predicting prostate cancer risk in different ancestry populations

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS) has shown promise in predicting prostate cancer (PCa) risk. However, the application of PRS in non-European ancestry was poorly studied.

METHODS

We constructed PRS using 68, 86, or 128 PCa-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified through a large-scale Genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the European ancestry population. A calibration approach was performed to adjust the PRS exact value for each ancestry. The study was conducted in East Asian (ChinaPCa Consortium, n = 2379), European (UK Biobank, n = 209,172), and African American (African Ancestry Prostate Cancer Consortium, n = 6016).

RESULTS

Individuals with the highest PRS (in >97.5th percentile) had over 2.5-fold increased risk of PCa than those with average PRS (in 40th-60th percentile) in both European (odds ratio [OR] = 3.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.46-4.16, p < 0.001) and Chinese (OR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.29-6.40, p = 0.010), while slightly lower in African American (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.22-2.58, p = 0.008). Compared with the lowest PRS (in <2.5th percentile), increased PRS was also associated with the earlier onset of PCa (All log-rank p < 0.05). The highest PRS contributed to having about 5- to 12-fold higher lifetime risk and 5-10 years earlier at disease onset than the lowest category across different ancestry populations.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that European-GWAS-based PRS could also significantly predict PCa risk in Asian ancestry and African ancestry populations.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in the UK: A Decision Model Analysis Based on the CAP Trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Most guidelines in the UK, Europe and North America do not recommend organised population-wide screening for prostate cancer. Prostate-specific antigen-based screening can reduce prostate cancer-specific mortality, but there are concerns about overdiagnosis, overtreatment and economic value. The aim was therefore to assess the cost effectiveness of eight potential screening strategies in the UK.

METHODS

We used a cost-utility analysis with an individual-based simulation model. The model was calibrated to data from the 10-year follow-up of the Cluster Randomised Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP). Treatment effects were modelled using data from the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. The participants were a hypothetical population of 10 million men in the UK followed from age 30 years to death. The strategies were: no screening; five age-based screening strategies; adaptive screening, where men with an initial prostate-specific antigen level of < 1.5 ng/mL are screened every 6 years and those above this level are screened every 4 years; and two polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies. We assumed the use of pre-biopsy multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for men with prostate-specific antigen ≥ 3 ng/mL and combined transrectal ultrasound-guided and targeted biopsies. The main outcome measures were projected lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years from a National Health Service perspective.

RESULTS

All screening strategies increased costs compared with no screening, with the majority also increasing quality-adjusted life-years. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, a once-off screening at age 50 years was optimal, although this was sensitive to the utility estimates used. Although the polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were not on the cost-effectiveness frontier, there was evidence to suggest that they were less cost ineffective than the alternative age-based strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the prostate-specific antigen-based strategies compared, only a once-off screening at age 50 years was potentially cost effective at current UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. An additional follow-up of CAP to 15 years may reduce uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Risk Association of Liver Cancer and Hepatitis B with Tree Ensemble and Lifestyle Features

The second-largest cause of death by cancer in Korea is liver cancer, which leads to acute morbidity and mortality. Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver cancer. About 70% of liver cancer patients suffer from hepatitis B. Early risk association of liver cancer and hepatitis B can help prevent fatal conditions. We propose a risk association method for liver cancer and hepatitis B with only lifestyle features. The diagnostic features were excluded to reduce the cost of gathering medical data. The data source is the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) from 2007 to 2019. We use 3872 and 4640 subjects for liver cancer and hepatitis B model, respectively. Random forest is employed to determine functional relationships between liver diseases and lifestyle features. The performance of our proposed method was compared with six machine learning methods. The results showed the proposed method outperformed the other methods in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.8367. The promising results confirm the superior performance of the proposed method and show that the proposed method with only lifestyle features provides significant advantages, potentially reducing the cost of detecting patients who require liver health care in advance.

How well do polygenic risk scores identify men at high risk for prostate cancer? Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Genome-wide association studies have revealed over 200 genetic susceptibility loci for prostate cancer (PCa). By combining them, polygenic risk scores (PRS) can be generated to predict risk of PCa. We summarize the published evidence and conduct meta-analyses of PRS as a predictor of PCa risk in Caucasian men.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from 59 studies, with 16 studies including 17 separate analyses used in the main meta-analysis with a total of 20,786 cases and 69,106 controls identified through a systematic search of ten databases. Random effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Meta-regression was used to assess the impact of number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) incorporated in PRS on AUC. Heterogeneity is expressed as I² scores. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and Egger tests.

RESULTS

The ability of PRS to identify men with PCa was modest (pooled AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.62-0.64) with moderate consistency (I² 64%). Combining PRS with clinical variables increased the pooled AUC to 0.74 (0.68-0.81). Meta-regression showed only negligible increase in AUC for adding incremental SNPs. Despite moderate heterogeneity, publication bias was not evident.

CONCLUSION

Typically, PRS accuracy is comparable to PSA or family history with a pooled AUC value 0.63 indicating mediocre performance for PRS alone.

Race and prostate cancer: genomic landscape

In the past 20 years, new insights into the genomic pathogenesis of prostate cancer have been provided. Large-scale integrative genomics approaches enabled researchers to characterize the genetic and epigenetic landscape of prostate cancer and to define different molecular subclasses based on the combination of genetic alterations, gene expression patterns and methylation profiles. Several molecular drivers of prostate cancer have been identified, some of which are different in men of different races. However, the extent to which genomics can explain racial disparities in prostate cancer outcomes is unclear. Future collaborative genomic studies overcoming the underrepresentation of non-white patients and other minority populations are essential.

Associations of DNA Base Excision Repair and Antioxidant Enzyme Genetic Risk Scores with Biomarker of Systemic Inflammation

Background: Inflammation is implicated in the etiology of various aging-related diseases. Numerous dietary and lifestyle factors contribute to chronic systemic inflammation; genetic variation may too. However, despite biological plausibility, little is known about associations of antioxidant enzyme (AE) and DNA base excision repair (BER) genotypes with human systemic inflammation. Methods: We genotyped 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 3 AE genes, and 79 SNPs in 14 BER genes to develop inflammation-specific AE and BER genetic risk scores (GRS) in two pooled cross-sectional studies (n = 333) of 30-74-year-old White adults without inflammatory bowel disease, familial adenomatous polyposis, or a history of cancer or colorectal adenoma. Of the genotypes, based on their associations with a biomarker of systemic inflammation, circulating high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentrations, we selected 2 SNPs of 2 genes (CAT and MnSoD) for an AE GRS, and 7 SNPs of 5 genes (MUTYH, SMUG1, TDG, UNG, and XRCC1) for a BER GRS. A higher GRS indicates a higher balance of variant alleles directly associated with hsCRP relative to variant alleles inversely associated with hsCRP. We also calculated previously-reported, validated, questionnaire-based dietary (DIS) and lifestyle (LIS) inflammation scores. We used multivariable general linear regression to compare mean hsCRP concentrations across AE and BER GRS categories, individually and jointly with the DIS and LIS. Results: The mean hsCRP concentrations among those in the highest relative to the lowest AE and BER GRS categories were, proportionately, 13.9% (p = 0.30) and 57.4% (p = 0.009) higher. Neither GRS clearly appeared to modify the associations of the DIS or LIS with hsCRP. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that genotypes of DNA BER genes collectively may be associated with systemic inflammation in humans.

Prostate cancer genetic propensity risk score may modify the association between this tumour and type 2 diabetes mellitus (MCC-Spain study)

BACKGROUND

Some studies have reported an inverse association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer (PCa), but results on this issue are still inconsistent. In this study, we evaluate whether this heterogeneity might be related to differences in this relationship by tumour or by individual genetic susceptibility to PCa.

METHODS

We studied 1047 incident PCa cases and 1379 randomly selected controls, recruited in 7 Spanish provinces for the population-based MCC-Spain case-control. Tumour were classified by aggressiveness according to the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP), and we constructed a PCa polygenic risk score (PRS) as proxy for genetic susceptibility. The epidemiological questionnaire collected detailed self-reported data on T2DM diagnosis and treatment. The association between T2DM status and PCa was studied by fitting mixed logistic regression models, and, for its association by aggressiveness of PCa, with multinomial logistic regression models. To evaluate the possible modulator role of PRS in this relationship, we included the corresponding interaction term in the model, and repeated the analysis stratified by PRS tertiles.

RESULTS

Globally, our results showed an inverse association between T2DM and overall PCa limited to grade 1 tumours (OR_ISUP = 1: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.53-0.98), which could be compatible with a detection bias. However, PCa risk also varied with duration of diabetes treatment -inversely to metformin and positively with insulin-, without differences by aggressiveness. When we considered genetic susceptibility, T2DM was more strongly associated with lower PCa risk in those with lower PRS (OR_{tertile 1}: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.11-0.87), independently of ISUP grade.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reinforce the need to include aggressiveness and susceptibility of PCa, and T2DM treatments in the study of the relationship between both diseases.

Breast and prostate cancer risk: The interplay of polygenic risk, rare pathogenic germline variants, and family history

PURPOSE

We aimed to investigate to what extent polygenic risk scores (PRS), rare pathogenic germline variants (PVs), and family history jointly influence breast cancer and prostate cancer risk.

METHODS

A total of 200,643 individuals from the UK Biobank were categorized as follows: (1) heterozygotes or nonheterozygotes for PVs in moderate to high-risk cancer genes, (2) PRS strata, and (3) with or without a family history of cancer. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute the odds ratio across groups and the cumulative incidence through life.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence by age 70 years among the nonheterozygotes across PRS strata ranged from 9% to 32% and from 9% to 35% for breast cancer and prostate cancer, respectively. Among the PV heterozygotes it ranged from 20% to 48% in moderate-risk genes and from 51% to 74% in high-risk genes for breast cancer, and it ranged from 30% to 59% in prostate cancer risk genes. Family history was always associated with an increased cancer odds ratio.

CONCLUSION

PRS alone provides a meaningful risk gradient leading to a cancer risk stratification comparable to PVs in moderate risk genes, whereas acts as a risk modifier when considering high-risk genes. Including family history along with PV and PRS further improves cancer risk stratification.

A Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Incident Prostate Cancer Risk in Older Men but Does Not Select for Clinically Significant Disease

Despite the high prevalence of prostate cancer in older men, the predictive value of a polygenic risk score (PRS) remains uncertain in men aged ≥70 years. We used a 6.6 million-variant PRS to predict the risk of incident prostate cancer in a prospective study of 5701 men of European descent aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial. The study endpoint was prostate cancer, including metastatic or non-metastatic disease, confirmed by an expert panel. After excluding participants with a history of prostate cancer at enrolment, we used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess the association between the PRS and incident prostate cancer risk, adjusting for covariates. Additionally, we examined the distribution of Gleason grade groups by PRS group to determine if a higher PRS was associated with higher grade disease. We tested for interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment. Logistic regression was used to independently assess the association of the PRS with prevalent (pre-trial) prostate cancer, reported in medical histories. During a median follow-up time of 4.6 years, 218 of the 5701 participants (3.8%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer. The PRS predicted incident risk with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.52 per standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.74, p < 0.001). Men in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an almost three times higher risk of prostate cancer than men in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.99 (95% CI 1.90-4.27), p < 0.001). However, a higher PRS was not associated with a higher Gleason grade groups. We found no interaction between aspirin treatment and the PRS for prostate cancer risk. The PRS was also associated with prevalent prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.80 per SD (95% CI 1.65-1.96), p < 0.001).While a PRS for prostate cancer is strongly associated with incident risk in men aged ≥70 years, the clinical utility of the PRS as a biomarker is currently limited by its inability to select for clinically significant disease.

Germline Mutations in African American Men With Prostate Cancer: Incidence, Implications and Diagnostic Disparities

Recent data suggests that African American men (AAM) with prostate cancer (PCa) exhibit genetic alterations in highly penetrant germline genes, as well as low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms. The importance of germline variants of uncertain significance (VUS) remain poorly elucidated and given the elevated rates of VUS in AAM compared to Caucasians with PCa, further studies are needed to facilitate potential reclassification of VUS. Ongoing efforts to include AAM in genomics research is of paramount importance in order to ensure applicability of discoveries across diverse populations and potentially reduce PCa disparities as we embark on the era of precision medicine.

Germline Predisposition to Prostate Cancer in Diverse Populations

There remains a paucity of data related to germline genetic alterations predisposing patients to prostate cancer. Recent data suggest that African American, Hispanic, and Asian and Pacific Islander men exhibit genetic alterations in both highly penetrant germline genes, including BRCA1/2, ATM, and CHEK2, and the mismatch repair genes associated with Lynch syndrome, as well as low-penetrant single-nucleotide polymorphisms. However, cohort sizes remain small in many studies limiting the ability to determine clinical significance, appropriate risk stratification, and treatment implications in these diverse populations.

Evaluating the utility of high-resolution proximity metrics in predicting the spread of COVID-19

High resolution mobility datasets have become increasingly available in the past few years and have enabled detailed models for infectious disease spread including those for COVID-19. However, there are open questions on how such a mobility data can be used effectively within epidemic models and for which tasks they are best suited. In this paper, we extract a number of graph-based proximity metrics from high resolution cellphone trace data from X-Mode and use it to study COVID-19 epidemic spread in 50 land grant university counties in the US. We present an approach to estimate the effect of mobility on cases by fitting an ODE based model and performing multivariate linear regression to explain the estimated time varying transmissibility. We find that, while mobility plays a significant role, the contribution is heterogeneous across the counties, as exemplified by a subsequent correlation analysis. We subsequently evaluate the metrics’ utility for case surge prediction defined as a supervised classification problem, and show that the learnt model can predict surges with 95% accuracy and 87% F1-score.

A Case-Based Clinical Approach to the Investigation, Management and Screening of Families with BRCA2 Related Prostate Cancer

BRCA2 is the most commonly implicated DNA damage repair gene associated with inherited prostate cancer. BRCA2 deficient prostate cancer typically presents at a younger age, is more poorly differentiated, and is associated with worse survival outcomes than non-BRCA2 associated prostate cancer. Despite these unfavourable prognostic implications, poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors and platinum-based chemotherapy have been identified as potent targeted therapeutic agents towards BRCA1/2 deficient cancer cells. This review article explores the literature surrounding BRCA2-related prostate cancer through a familial clinical scenario. The investigation, diagnosis and management of BRCA2 deficient prostate cancer will be explored, alongside the implications of the identification of a germline pathogenic BRCA2 variant within a family, cascade screening and prostate cancer surveillance in unaffected male BRCA2 carriers. A greater understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of DNA damage repair gene deficient prostate cancer, coupled with new treatment paradigms and widened access to both somatic and germline genetic analysis for prostate cancer patients and their families will hopefully enable the robust implementation of high quality evidence-based clinical pathways for both the management and identification of BRCA2 deficient prostate cancer and improved screening, early detection and prevention strategies for individuals at increased genetic risk of prostate cancer.

Identification of Germline Genetic Variants that Increase Prostate Cancer Risk and Influence Development of Aggressive Disease

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a heterogeneous disease, which presents in individual patients across a diverse phenotypic spectrum ranging from indolent to fatal forms. No robust biomarkers are currently available to enable routine screening for PrCa or to distinguish clinically significant forms, therefore late stage identification of advanced disease and overdiagnosis plus overtreatment of insignificant disease both remain areas of concern in healthcare provision. PrCa has a substantial heritable component, and technological advances since the completion of the Human Genome Project have facilitated improved identification of inherited genetic factors influencing susceptibility to development of the disease within families and populations. These genetic markers hold promise to enable improved understanding of the biological mechanisms underpinning PrCa development, facilitate genetically informed PrCa screening programmes and guide appropriate treatment provision. However, insight remains largely lacking regarding many aspects of their manifestation; especially in relation to genes associated with aggressive phenotypes, risk factors in non-European populations and appropriate approaches to enable accurate stratification of higher and lower risk individuals. This review discusses the methodology used in the elucidation of genetic loci, genes and individual causal variants responsible for modulating PrCa susceptibility; the current state of understanding of the allelic spectrum contributing to PrCa risk; and prospective future translational applications of these discoveries in the developing eras of genomics and personalised medicine.