Fast and effective pseudo transfer entropy for bivariate data-driven causal inference

NHSMM-MAR-sdNC: A novel data-driven computational framework for state-dependent effective connectivity analysis

The brain exhibits intrinsic dynamics characterized by spontaneous spatiotemporal reorganization of neural activity or metastability, which is associated closely with functional integration and segregation. Compared to dynamic functional connectivity, state-dependent effective connectivity (i.e., dynamic effective connectivity) is more suitable for exploring the metastability as its ability to infer causalities between brain regions. However, methods for state-dependent effective connectivity are scarce and urgently needed. In this study, a novel data-driven computational framework, named NHSMM-MAR-sdNC integrating nonparametric hidden semi-Markov model combined with multivariate autoregressive model and state-dependent new causality, is proposed to investigate the state-dependent effective connectivity. The framework is not constrained by any biological assumptions. Furthermore, state number can be inferred from the observed data directly and the state duration distributions will be estimated explicitly rather than restricted by geometric form, which overcomes limitations of hidden Markov model. Experimental results of synthetic data show that the framework can identify the state number adaptively and the state-dependent causality networks accurately. The dynamics of state-related causality networks are also revealed by the new method on real-world resting-state fMRI data. Our method provides a new data-driven computational framework for identifying state-dependent effective connectivity, which will facilitate the identification and assessment of metastability and itinerant dynamics of the brain.

Partial Cross Mapping Based on Sparse Variable Selection for Direct Fault Root Cause Diagnosis for Industrial Processes

Root cause diagnosis of process industry is of significance to ensure safe production and improve production efficiency. Conventional contribution plot methods have challenges in root cause diagnosis due to the smearing effect. Other traditional root cause diagnosis methods, such as Granger causality (GC) and transfer entropy, have unsatisfactory performance in root cause diagnosis for complex industrial processes due to the existence of indirect causality. In this work, a regularization and partial cross mapping (PCM)-based root cause diagnosis framework is proposed for efficient direct causality inference and fault propagation path tracing. First, generalized Lasso-based variable selection is performed. The Hotelling T2 statistic is formulated and the Lasso-based fault reconstruction is applied to select candidate root cause variables. Second, the root cause is diagnosed through the PCM and the propagation path is drawn out according to the diagnosis result. The proposed framework is studied in four cases to verify its rationality and effectiveness, including a numerical example, the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process, the wastewater treatment process (WWTP), and the decarburization process of high-speed wire rod spring steel.

Machine learning-based causal models for predicting the response of individual patients to dexamethasone treatment as prophylactic antiemetic

Risk-based strategies are widely used for decision making in the prophylaxis of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV), a major complication of general anesthesia. However, whether risk is associated with individual treatment effect remains uncertain. Here, we used machine learning-based algorithms for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) (double machine learning [DML], doubly robust [DR] learner, forest DML, and generalized random forest) to predict the treatment response heterogeneity of dexamethasone, the first choice for prophylactic antiemetics. Electronic health record data of 2026 adult patients who underwent general anesthesia from January to June 2020 were analyzed. The results indicated that only a small subset of patients respond to dexamethasone treatment, and many patients may be non-responders. Estimated CATE did not correlate with predicted risk, suggesting that risk may not be associated with individual treatment responses. The current study suggests that predicting treatment responders by CATE models may be more appropriate for clinical decision making than conventional risk-based strategy.

[Research progress and application of transfer entropy algorithm]

In recent years, exploring the physiological and pathological mechanisms of brain functional integration from the neural network level has become one of the focuses of neuroscience research. Due to the non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of neural signals, its linear characteristics are not sufficient to fully explain the potential neurophysiological activity mechanism in the implementation of complex brain functions. In order to overcome the limitation that the linear algorithm cannot effectively analyze the nonlinear characteristics of signals, researchers proposed the transfer entropy (TE) algorithm. In recent years, with the introduction of the concept of brain functional network, TE has been continuously optimized as a powerful tool for nonlinear time series multivariate analysis. This paper first introduces the principle of TE algorithm and the research progress of related improved algorithms, discusses and compares their respective characteristics, and then summarizes the application of TE algorithm in the field of electrophysiological signal analysis. Finally, combined with the research progress in recent years, the existing problems of TE are discussed, and the future development direction is prospected.