Assessing bleeding risk in 4824 Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: The Beijing PLA Hospital Atrial Fibrillation Project

Trends in Anticoagulant Utilization and Clinical Outcomes for Cancer-Associated Thrombosis: A Multicenter Cohort Study in Thailand's Upper-Middle-Income Country Setting

PURPOSE

To evaluate anticoagulant trends and clinical outcomes in the management of cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) within Thailand, an upper-middle-income country (UMIC).

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective cohort study included adult patients with cancer diagnosed with venous thromboembolism (VTE) hospitalized in Thailand from 2017 to 2021. Anticoagulants were classified as low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), and warfarin. Prescription trends were assessed, and patients were followed for 1 year, or until 2022 to evaluate outcomes. The primary effectiveness outcome was recurrent VTE, whereas the primary safety outcome was major bleeding. Secondary outcomes included net clinical benefit and all-cause mortality. Treatment effects were examined using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Among 1,611 patients (61.3% female; mean age, 58.8 years; standard deviation, 13.1 years), 86% received LMWH, 10% warfarin, and 4% DOACs. In the study cohort, LMWH prescriptions remained consistent, warfarin use declined, and DOAC prescriptions notably increased. In IPTW analysis, DOACs showed comparable rates of VTE recurrence (weighted hazard ratio [HR], 0.77 [95% CI, 0.22 to 2.70]; P = .679) and major bleeding (weighted HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.15 to 2.55]; P = .506) with LMWH. Warfarin had a higher risk of major bleeding (weighted HR, 2.74 [95% CI, 1.12 to 6.72]; P = .028) but a similar rate of VTE recurrence (weighted HR, 1.46 [95% CI, 0.75 to 2.84]; P = .271) compared with LMWH. Secondary outcomes were consistent across groups.

CONCLUSION

LMWH remains the primary treatment for CAT, in line with current guidelines. The study highlights the challenges faced in these settings with the continuous use of warfarin. The comparable efficacy and safety of DOACs with LMWH suggest a potential shift in CAT management within UMICs.

The impact of SAH finding on CT to the clinical outcome after mechanical thrombectomy for large vessel occlusion

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Whether subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) after mechanical thrombectomy affects the clinical outcomes of patients with acute large-vessel occlusion remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the clinical impact of SAH on computed tomography (CT) after mechanical thrombectomy.

METHODS

The SKIP study was an investigator-initiated, multicentre, randomised, open-label clinical trial. This study was performed in 23 hospital networks in Japan from January 1, 2017, to July 31, 2019. Among the 204 patients, seven were excluded because they did not undergo mechanical thrombectomy (MT) and had a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score > 2. The main outcome was the association between SAH within 36 h after mechanical thrombectomy and the clinical outcome at 90 days.

RESULTS

Among 197 patients, the median age was 74 (67-79) years, 62.9% were male. Moreover, 26 (13.2%) patients had SAH (seven isolated SAH) on CT within 36 h. The SAH rate did not differ according to IV rt-PA administration (p = 0.4). The rate of favourable clinical outcomes tended to be lower in patients with SAH rather than patients without SAH (11 [42%] vs. 106 [62%], p = 0.08). Among the seven patients with isolated SAH, 6 showed favourable outcomes at 90 days. In the multivariate regression analysis, the presence of SAH within 36 h from onset was not associated with clinical outcome (Odd ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-1.95; p = 0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with acute stroke treated with MT, SAH, especially isolated SAH findings on CT, were not associated with poor clinical outcomes after 90 days.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000021488.

Predicting performance of the HAS-BLED and ORBIT bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with Rivaroxaban: Observations from the prospective EMIR Registry

BACKGROUND

Assessing bleeding risk during the decision-making process of starting oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is essential. Several bleeding risk scores have been proposed for vitamin K antagonist users but, few studies have focused on validation of these bleeding risk scores in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). The aim was to compare the predictive ability of HAS-BLED and ORBIT bleeding risk scores in AF patients taking rivaroxaban in the EMIR ('Estudio observacional para la identificación de los factores de riesgo asociados a eventos cardiovasculares mayores en pacientes con fibrilación auricular no valvular tratados con un anticoagulante oral directo [Rivaroxaban]) Study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

EMIR Study was an observational, multicenter, post-authorization, and prospective study that involved AF patients under OAC with rivaroxaban at least 6 months before enrolment. We analysed baseline clinical characteristics and adverse events after 2.5 years of follow-up and validated the predictive ability of HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores for major bleeding (MB) events.We analysed 1433 patients with mean age of 74.2 ± 9.7 (44.5% female). Mean HAS-BLED score was 1.6 ± 1.0 and ORBIT score was 1.1 ± 1.2. The ORBIT score categorised a higher proportion of patients as 'low-risk' (87.1%) compared with 53.5% using the HAS-BLED score. There were 33 MB events (1.04%/year) and 87 patients died (2.73%/year). Both HAS-BLED and ORBIT had a good predictive ability for MB{Area under the curve (AUC) 0.770, [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.693-0.847; P <0.001] and AUC 0.765 (95% CI 0.672-0.858; P <0.001), respectively}. There was a non-significant difference for discriminative ability of the two tested scores (P = 0.930) and risk reclassification in terms of net reclassification improvement (NRI) -5.7 (95% CI -42.4-31.1; P = 0.762). HAS-BLED score showed the best calibration and ORBIT score showed the largest mismatch in calibration, particularly in higher predicted risk patients.

CONCLUSION

In a prospective real-world AF population under rivaroxaban from EMIR registry, the HAS-BLED score had good predictive performance and calibration compared with ORBIT score for MB events. ORBIT score presented worse calibration than HAS-BLED in this DOAC treated population.

Safety and effectiveness of low-dose aspirin for the prevention of gastrointestinal cancer in adults without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between low-dose aspirin and the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC), gastric cancer (GC), oesophageal cancer (EC) and gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in adults without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

Cohort study with propensity score matching of new-users of aspirin to non-users.

SETTING

Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System database, Hong Kong.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults ≥40 years with a prescription start date of either low-dose aspirin (75-300 mg/daily) or paracetamol (non-aspirin users) between 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008 without a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the first diagnosis of gastrointestinal cancer (either CRC, GC or EC) and the secondary outcome was GIB. Individuals were followed from index date of prescription until the earliest occurrence of an outcome of interest, an incident diagnosis of any type of cancer besides the outcome, death or until 31 December 2017. A competing risk survival analysis was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs with death as the competing risk.

RESULTS

After matching, 49 679 aspirin and non-aspirin users were included. The median (IQR) follow-up was 10.0 (6.4) years. HRs for low-dose aspirin compared with non-aspirin users were 0.83 for CRC (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.91), 0.77 for GC (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92) and 0.88 for EC (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.16). Patients prescribed low-dose aspirin had an increased risk of GIB (HR 1.15, 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.20), except for patients prescribed proton pump inhibitors or histamine H2-receptor antagonists (HR 1.03, 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.10).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort study of Chinese adults, patients prescribed low-dose aspirin had reduced risks of CRC and GC and an increased risk of GIB. Among the subgroup of patients prescribed gastroprotective agents at baseline, however, the association with GIB was attenuated.

Anticoagulation Control in Different Ethnic Groups Receiving Vitamin K Antagonist for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

Vitamin K antagonist such as warfarin reduces the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Since warfarin has a narrow therapeutic index, its administration needs to be regularly monitored to avoid any adverse clinical outcomes such as stroke and bleeding. The quality of anticoagulation control with warfarin therapy can be measured by using time in therapeutic range (TTR). This review focuses on the prevalence of AF, quality of anticoagulation control (TTR) and adverse clinical outcome in AF patients within different ethnic groups receiving warfarin therapy for stroke prevention. A literature search was conducted in Embase and PubMed using keywords of “prevalence,” “atrial fibrillation,” “stroke prevention,” “oral anticoagulants,” “warfarin,” “ethnicities,” “race” “time in therapeutic range,” “adverse clinical outcome,” “stroke, bleeding.” Articles published by 1st February 2020 were included. Forty-one studies were included in the final review consisting of AF prevalence (n = 14 studies), time in therapeutic range (n = 18 studies), adverse clinical outcome (n = 9 studies) within different ethnic groups. Findings indicate that higher prevalence of AF but better anticoagulation control among the Whites as compared to other ethnicities. Of note, non-whites had higher risk of strokes and bleeding outcomes while on warfarin therapy. Addressing disparities in prevention and healthcare resource allocation could potentially improve AF-related outcomes in minorities.

Comparison of the HAS-BLED versus ORBIT scores in predicting major bleeding among Asians receiving direct-acting oral anticoagulants

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores in predicting bleeding risk among Asian patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) using direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs).

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was conducted among adult patients receiving DOACs for ≥6 months during January 2013 to December 2017 in 10 tertiary care hospitals in Thailand. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) method or C-statistic was used to test the diagnostic accuracy for bleeding risk classification of HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores. The predictive performances of the two scores were compared using DeLong's method.

RESULTS

A total of 961 NVAF patients, 52.5% warfarin-naïve and 47.5% warfarin-experienced, with mean age of 74.25 ± 10.08 years, were included in the analysis. Mean HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores of the cohort were 1.98 ± 1.10 and 2.37 ± 1.71, respectively. During the mean follow-up time of 1.55 ± 1.13 years, 34 patients experienced major bleeding (2.28 events/100 patient-year). For the overall cohort, both the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores showed similarly moderate predictive performance on bleeding with C-statistic (95% confidence interval) of 0.65 (0.57-0.74) and 0.64 (0.56-0.71), respectively. There was no statistical significance between the two scores (P = .62). Analysis based on the status of previous warfarin use was consistent with the overall cohort. Based on the calibration analysis, both HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores possessed moderate ability to identify those who experienced major bleeding from those who did not.

CONCLUSION

Both HAS-BLED and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had moderate predictive performance in Asian NVAF patients receiving DOACs.

2020 Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology Consensus Recommendations on Antithrombotic Management for High-risk Chronic Coronary Syndrome

The unique characteristics of patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) in the Asia-Pacific region, heterogeneous approaches because of differences in accesses and resources and low number of patients from the Asia-Pacific region in pivotal studies, mean that international guidelines cannot be routinely applied to these populations. The Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology developed these consensus recommendations to summarise current evidence on the management of CCS and provide recommendations to assist clinicians treat patients from the region. The consensus recommendations were developed by an expert consensus panel who reviewed and appraised the available literature, with focus on data from patients in Asia-Pacific. Consensus statements were developed then put to an online vote. The resulting recommendations provide guidance on the assessment and management of bleeding and ischaemic risks in Asian CCS patients. Furthermore, the selection of long-term antithrombotic therapy is discussed, including the role of single antiplatelet therapy, dual antiplatelet therapy and dual pathway inhibition therapy.

Regular Bleeding Risk Assessment Associated with Reduction in Bleeding Outcomes: The mAFA-II Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

The mobile atrial fibrillation application (mAFA-II) randomized trial reported that a holistic management strategy supported by mobile health reduced atrial fibrillation-related adverse outcomes. The present study aimed to assess whether regular reassessment of bleeding risk using the Hypertension, Abnormal renal and liver function, Stroke, Bleeding, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly, Drugs or alcohol (HAS-BLED) score would improve bleeding outcomes and oral anticoagulant (OAC) uptake.

METHODS

Bleeding risk (HAS-BLED score) was monitored prospectively using mAFA, and calculated as 30 days, days 31-60, days 61-180, and days 181-365. Clinical events and OAC changes in relation to the dynamic monitoring were analyzed.

RESULTS

We studied 1793 patients with atrial fibrillation (mean, standard deviation, age 64 years, 24 years, 32.5% female). Comparing baseline and 12 months, the proportion of atrial fibrillation patients with HAS-BLED ≥3 decreased (11.8% vs 8.5%, P = .008), with changes in use of concomitant nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs/antiplatelets, renal dysfunction, and labile international normalized ratio contributing to the decreased proportions of patients with HAS-BLED ≥3 (P < .05). Among 1077 (60%) patients who had 4 bleeding risk assessments, incident bleeding events decreased significantly from days 1-30 to days 181-365 (1.2% to 0.2%, respectively, P < .001). Total OAC usage increased from 63.4% to 70.2% (P_trend < .001). Compared with atrial fibrillation patients receiving usual care (n = 1136), bleeding events were significantly lower in atrial fibrillation patients with dynamic monitoring of their bleeding risk (mAFA vs usual care, 2.1%, 4.3%, P = .004). OAC use decreased significantly by 25% among AF patients receiving usual care, when comparing baseline to 12 months (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Dynamic risk monitoring using the HAS-BLED score, together with holistic App-based management using mAFA-II reduced bleeding events, addressed modifiable bleeding risks, and increased uptake of OACs.

Efficacy and Safety of Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants in Asians With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Network Meta-Analysis

There are few head-to-head trials directly comparing non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) against one other. A network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to examine the indirect comparisons among NOACs in Asians with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). STATA 15.0 and ADDIS 1.16.8 softwares were used to perform the statistical analysis. Odds ratios with 95% credible intervals were applied to evaluate the end points. The probabilities of treatment rank were used to understand which interventions are more effective and safe, and the total rank probability was 1. In our NMA, the rank probabilities of apixaban in the case of stroke or systemic embolism, death from any cause, major bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) were 0.47, 0.49, 0.42, and 0.51, respectively. For cases of myocardial infarction, the rank probabilities of rivaroxaban were 0.40. This NMA indirectly compares the main efficacy and safety end points among NOACs in Asians with NVAF, and the rank probability analysis showed that apixaban likely performs best in cases of stroke or systemic embolism, death from any cause, and ICH; rivaroxaban may have the best performance for myocardial infarction.

Accuracy of HAS-BLED and other bleeding risk assessment tools in predicting major bleeding events in atrial fibrillation: A network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Preventing thrombosis is an important part of atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment. However, it may increase the risk of bleeding, and bleeding risk assessment tools' predictive value remains unclear. This network meta-analysis investigated the sensitivity and specificity of HAS-BLED, and other bleeding risk assessment tools, to predict major bleeding events in AF patients.

METHODS

The PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched using keywords, including "AF," "bleeding," and "HAS-BLED," for results published through 30 November 2018. The predictive sensitivity and specificity of each bleeding risk assessment tool was analyzed by network meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 18 studies, recruiting a total of 321 888 people. The bleeding risk assessment tools analyzed in this study included the ABC-bleeding score, ATRIA, European score, GARFIELD-AF, HAS-BLED, HEMORR2HAGES, ORBIT, Shireman, and mOBRI. A comprehensive analysis of sensitivity and specificity, based on an inconsistency model, showed that European score, ABC, and mOBRI have relatively high-sensitivity but low-specificity tools, whereas HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES have balanced sensitivity and specificity. ORBIT, ATRIA, Shireman, and GARFIELD-AF had relatively high specificity but low sensitivity. A consistency model analysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

HAS-BLED is a balanced bleeding risk assessment tool in terms of sensitivity and specificity, whereas the European score, ABC, and mOBRI are high-sensitivity tools and ORBIT, ATRIA, Shireman, and GARFIELD-AF are high-specificity tools.

Anticoagulation risk assessment for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A clinical review

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism anticoagulation risk assessment tools have been increasingly utilized to guide implementation and duration of anticoagulant therapy. Anticoagulation significantly reduces stroke and recurrent venous thromboembolism risk, but comes at the cost of increased risk of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. The decision for anticoagulation in high-risk patients is complicated by the fact that many risk factors associated with increased thromboembolic risk are simultaneously associated with increased bleeding risk. Traditional risk assessment tools rely heavily on age, sex, and presence of cardiovascular comorbidities, with newer tools additionally taking into account changes in risk factors over time and novel biomarkers to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. These tools may help counsel and inform patients about the risks and benefits of starting or continuing anticoagulant therapy and can identify patients who may benefit from more careful management. Although the ability to predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhagic risk is modest, ischemic and bleeding risk scores have been shown to add significant value to therapeutic management decisions. Ultimately, further work is needed to optimally implement accurate and actionable risk stratification into clinical practice.

Optimal Thromboprophylaxis in Elderly Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (ChiOTEAF) registry: protocol for a prospective, observational nationwide cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a worldwide healthcare burden that is associated with the ageing population. Elderly patients with AF with multiple comorbidities usually present with a high risk of thromboembolism and bleeding. Limited prospective data are available from Asian cohorts on the epidemiology and complications of AF. The present prospective cohort study aims to explore contemporary antithrombotic strategies among the elderly Chinese population in the new era of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes between Chinese and European AF populations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Optimal Thromboprophylaxis in Elderly Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (ChiOTEAF) registry will recruit 5000 patients with AF over 65 years of age in China. AF-related risks, including stroke/systemic thromboembolism and bleeding outcomes, will be assessed. Medical history, risk factors, demographic information and management will be collected at baseline, and clinical events during 1 year follow-up will be recorded. Follow-up will be conducted for at least 1 year and then annually thereafter. As our registry has a common protocol to the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme AF general registry programme, preplanned analyses comparing the clinical profiles and outcomes will be performed. The ChiOTEAF registry offers an opportunity to provide a better understanding of the clinical profiles and adverse outcomes of patients with AF in China and allow for comparisons with a contemporary European population.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was granted by the Central Medical Ethic Committee of Chinese PLA General Hospital (approval no S2014-065-01). The (inter)national research presentations, peer-reviewed publications and media coverage of the research will be sued for dissemination of the results.

Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.

METHODS

This study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR₂HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

The European score had modest predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared with the European score, with the differences between c-indexes of 0.10-0.12 (Delong test, all P < .05), net reclassification improvement values of 13.0%-34.5% (all P < .05), and integrated discrimination improvement values of 0.7%-1.4% (all P < .05). The European score had similar predictive value to other bleeding risk schemes (HEMORR₂HAGES, ATRIA, and ORBIT) for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (all P > .05). Decision curve analysis clearly shows that HAS-BLED had better net benefit of predicting major bleeding compared with the European score.

CONCLUSIONS

Relying on bleeding risk assessment using modifiable bleeding risk factors alone is an inferior strategy for predicting atrial fibrillation patients for major bleeding. Our observations reaffirm the Asian guideline recommendations with HAS-BLED for bleeding risk assessment in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: Focus on Asian Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia conferring a fivefold increased risk of stroke. Stroke prevention is the cornerstone of management of patients with AF. Asians have a generally higher incidence of AF-related risks of stroke and bleeding (particularly intracranial bleeding), compared with non-Asians. Despite the well-documented efficacy and relative safety of oral anticoagulation for stroke prevention among Asians, the suboptimal use of oral anticoagulation remains common. The current narrative review aims to provide a summary of the available evidence on stroke prevention among patients with AF focused on the Asia region, regarding stroke and bleeding risk evaluation, the performance of oral anticoagulation, and current use of thromboprophylaxis.

Evaluation of the predictive performance of bleeding risk scores in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulants

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Bleeding risk scores (BRSs) aid in the assessment of oral anticoagulant-related bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Ideally, the applicability of a BRS needs to be assessed, prior to its routine use in a population other than the original derivation cohort. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of 6 established BRSs to predict major or clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) events associated with the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) among Malaysian patients.

METHODS

The pharmacy supply database and the medical records of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) receiving warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban at two tertiary hospitals were reviewed. Patients who experienced an OAC-associated major or CRB event within 12 months of follow-up, or who have received OAC therapy for at least 1 year, were identified. The BRSs were fitted separately into patient data. The discrimination and the calibration of these BRSs as well as the factors associated with bleeding events were then assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 1017 patients with at least 1-year follow-up period, or those who developed a bleeding event within 1 year of OAC use, were recruited. Of which, 23 patients experienced a first major bleeding event, whereas 76 patients, a first CRB event. Multivariate logistic regression results show that age of 75 or older, prior bleeding and male gender are associated with major bleeding events. On the other hand, prior gastrointestinal bleeding, a haematocrit value of less than 30% and renal impairment are independent predictors of CRB events. All the BRSs show a satisfactory calibration for major and CRB events. Among these BRSs, only HEMORR₂ HAGES (C-statistic = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.82, P < .001) and ATRIA score (C-statistic = 0.70, 95% CI 0.58-0.82, P < .001) show acceptable discrimination performance for major bleeding events. All the 6 BRSs, however, lack acceptable predictive performance for CRB events.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation study of the predictive performance of these 6 BRSs on clinically relevant bleeding events applied to the same cohort consisting of mainly Asian novel oral anticoagulant users. These BRSs show poor to acceptable predictive performance on OAC-induced major or CRB events. An improvement in the existing BRSs for OAC users is warranted.

Importance of time in therapeutic range on bleeding risk prediction using clinical risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation

Bleeding risk with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) is closely related to the quality of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, reflected by time in therapeutic range (TTR). Here we compared the discrimination performance of different bleeding risk scores and investigated if adding TTR would improve their predictive value and clinical usefulness. We included 1361 AF patients stables on VKA for at least 6 months. Bleeding risk was assessed by the HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES scores. Major bleeding events were recorded after a median of 6.5 years follow-up. In this period 250 patients suffered major bleeds. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that HAS-BLED had the best discrimination performance, but adding the ‘labile INR’ criteria (i.e. TTR <65%) to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES increased their ability of discrimination and predictive value, with significant improvements in reclassification and discriminatory performance. Decision curve analyses (DCA) showed improvements of the clinical usefulness and a net benefit of the modified risk scores. In summary, in AF patients taking VKAs, the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive ability. Adding ‘labile INR’ to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR₂HAGES improved their predictive value for major bleeding leading to improved clinical usefulness compared to the original scores.

Comparing the ORBIT and HAS-BLED bleeding risk scores in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores have been proposed to assess bleeding risk in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the predictive ability by using these two scores.

Materials and Methods

We searched the Cochrane Library, Elsevier and PubMed databases for related studies. Statistical analysis was performed with Revman 5.3 Manager software. We chose the C-statistic to reflect the diagnostic value.

Results

In our seven selected studies, the pooled C- statistic of continuous variables for major bleeding was 0.65 (0.60,0.69) for ORBIT and 0.63 (0.60,0.66) for HAS-BLED. Compared with HAS-BLED, more anticoagulated AF patients (88.45% versus 32.59%) and major bleeding events (75.57% versus 25.57%) were categorized as low risk. The ORBIT score had a 1.21, 1.73 and 1.44-fold elevated risk of major bleeding in the low, intermediate and high risk strata respectively. Calibration analysis demonstrated that the ORBIT score under-predicted major bleeding in the low, intermediate, and high risk stratifications, where a odds ratio of 0.64 (0.37-1.10), 0.63 (0.38-1.05) and 0.64 (0.38-1.06), respectively.

Conclusions

Compared with HAS-BLED , the ORBIT score does not perform better in predicting major bleeding events in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients. More anticoagulated AF patients and major bleeding events were categorized as low risk when using ORBIT.