Using genomic prediction to detect microevolutionary change of a quantitative trait

Detecting microevolutionary responses to natural selection by observing temporal changes in individual breeding values is challenging. The collection of suitable datasets can take many years and disentangling the contributions of the environment and genetics to phenotypic change is not trivial. Furthermore, pedigree-based methods of obtaining individual breeding values have known biases. Here, we apply a genomic prediction approach to estimate breeding values of adult weight in a 35-year dataset of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Comparisons are made with a traditional pedigree-based approach. During the study period, adult body weight decreased, but the underlying genetic component of body weight increased, at a rate that is unlikely to be attributable to genetic drift. Thus cryptic microevolution of greater adult body weight has probably occurred. Genomic and pedigree-based approaches gave largely consistent results. Thus, using genomic prediction to study microevolution in wild populations can remove the requirement for pedigree data, potentially opening up new study systems for similar research.

A potential role for restricted intertactical heritability in preventing intralocus conflict

Intralocus sexual conflict, which arises when the same trait has different fitness optima in males and females, reduces population growth rates. Recently, evolutionary biologists have recognized that intralocus conflict can occur between morphs or reproductive tactics within a sex and that intralocus tactical conflict might constrain tactical dimorphism and population growth rates just as intralocus sexual conflict constrains sexual dimorphism and population growth rates. However, research has only recently focused on sexual and tactical intralocus conflict simultaneously, and there is no formal theory connecting the two. We present a graphical model of how tactical and sexual conflict over the same trait could constrain both sexual and tactical dimorphisms. We then use Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), an important species currently protected under the Endangered Species Act, to investigate the possibility of simultaneous sexual and tactical conflict. Larger Coho males gain access to females through fighting while smaller males are favored through sneaking tactics, and female reproductive success is positively correlated with length. We tested for antagonistic selection on length at maturity among sexes and tactics and then used parent-offspring regression to calculate sex- and tactic-specific heritabilities to determine whether and where intralocus conflict exists. Selection on length varied in intensity and form among tactics and years. Length was heritable between dams and daughters (h 2 ± 95% CI = 0.361 ± 0.252) and between fighter males and their fighter sons (0.867 ± 0.312), but no other heritabilities differed significantly from zero. The lack of intertactical heritabilities in this system, combined with similar selection on length among tactics, suggests the absence of intralocus conflict between sexes and among tactics, allowing for the evolution of sexual and tactical dimorphisms. Our results suggest that Coho salmon populations are unlikely to be constrained by intralocus conflict or artificial selection on male tactic.

Heritable variation in telomere length predicts mortality in Soay sheep

Telomere length (TL) is considered an important biomarker of whole-organism health and aging. Across humans and other vertebrates, short telomeres are associated with increased subsequent mortality risk, but the processes responsible for this correlation remain uncertain. A key unanswered question is whether TL-mortality associations arise due to positive effects of genes or early-life environment on both an individual's average lifetime TL and their longevity, or due to more immediate effects of environmental stressors on within-individual TL loss and increased mortality risk. Addressing this question requires longitudinal TL and life history data across the entire lifetimes of many individuals, which are difficult to obtain for long-lived species like humans. Using longitudinal data and samples collected over nearly two decades, as part of a long-term study of wild Soay sheep, we dissected an observed positive association between TL and subsequent survival using multivariate quantitative genetic models. We found no evidence that telomere attrition was associated with increased mortality risk, suggesting that TL is not an important marker of biological aging or exposure to environmental stress in our study system. Instead, we find that among-individual differences in average TL are associated with increased lifespan. Our analyses suggest that this correlation between an individual's average TL and lifespan has a genetic basis. This demonstrates that TL has the potential to evolve under natural conditions, and suggests an important role of genetics underlying the widespread observation that short telomeres predict mortality.

Maladaptation beyond a geographic range limit driven by antagonistic and mutualistic biotic interactions across an abiotic gradient

Species' geographic range limits often result from maladaptation to the novel environments beyond the range margin. However, we rarely know which aspects of the n-dimensional environment are driving this maladaptation. Especially of interest is the influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in delimiting species' distributions. We conducted a 2-year reciprocal transplant experiment involving manipulations of the biotic environment to explore how spatiotemporal gradients in precipitation, fatal mammalian herbivory, and pollination affected lifetime fitness within and beyond the range of the California annual plant, Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. In the first, drier year of the experiment, fitness outside the range edge was limited mainly by low precipitation, and there was some evidence for local adaptation within the range. In the second, wetter year, we did not observe abiotic limitations to plant fitness outside the range; instead biotic interactions, especially herbivory, limited fitness outside the range. Together, protection from herbivory and supplementation of pollen resulted in three- to sevenfold increases in lifetime fitness outside the range margin in the abiotically benign year. Overall, our work demonstrates the importance of biotic interactions, particularly as they interact with the abiotic environment, in determining fitness beyond geographic range boundaries.

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree-derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so-called "paradox of stasis." To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies-which have largely been limited to birds and mammals-to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.

Evidence for Selection-by-Environment but Not Genotype-by-Environment Interactions for Fitness-Related Traits in a Wild Mammal Population

How do environmental conditions influence selection and genetic variation in wild populations? There is widespread evidence for selection-by-environment interactions (S*E), but we reviewed studies of natural populations estimating the extent of genotype-by-environment interactions (G*E) in response to natural variation in environmental conditions and found that evidence for G*E appears to be rare within single populations in the wild. Studies estimating the simultaneous impact of environmental variation on both selection and genetic variation are especially scarce. Here, we used 24 years of data collected from a wild Soay sheep population to quantify how an important environmental variable, population density, impacts upon (1) selection through annual contribution to fitness and (2) expression of genetic variation, in six morphological and life history traits: body weight, hind leg length, parasite burden, horn length, horn growth, and testicular circumference. Our results supported the existence of S*E: selection was stronger in years of higher population density for all traits apart from horn growth, with directional selection being stronger under more adverse conditions. Quantitative genetic models revealed significant additive genetic variance for body weight, leg length, parasite burden, horn length, and testes size, but not for horn growth or our measure of annual fitness. However, random regression models found variation between individuals in their responses to the environment in only three traits, and did not support the presence of G*E for any trait. Our analyses of St Kilda Soay sheep data thus concurs with our cross-study review that, while natural environmental variation within a population can profoundly alter the strength of selection on phenotypic traits, there is less evidence for its effect on the expression of genetic variance in the wild.

Selection on parental performance opposes selection for larger body mass in a wild population of blue tits

There is abundant evidence in many taxa for positive directional selection on body size, and yet little evidence for microevolutionary change. In many species, variation in body size is partly determined by the actions of parents, so a proposed explanation for stasis is the presence of a negative genetic correlation between direct and parental effects. Consequently, selecting genes for increased body size would result in a correlated decline in parental effects, reducing body size in the following generation. We show that these arguments implicitly assume that parental care is cost free, and that including a cost alters the predicted genetic architectures needed to explain stasis. Using a large cross-fostered population of blue tits, we estimate direct selection on parental effects for body mass, and show it is negative. Negative selection is consistent with a cost to parental care, mainly acting through a reduction in current fecundity rather than survival. Under these conditions, evolutionary stasis is possible for moderately negative genetic correlations between direct and parental effects. This is in contrast to the implausibly extreme correlations needed when care is assumed to be cost-free. Thus, we highlight the importance of accounting correctly for complete selection acting on traits across generations.

Inbreeding depression by environment interactions in a free-living mammal population

Experimental studies often find that inbreeding depression is more severe in harsh environments, but the few studies of in situ wild populations available to date rarely find strong support for this effect. We investigated evidence for inbreeding depression by environment interactions in nine traits in the individually monitored Soay sheep population of St Kilda, using genomic inbreeding coefficients based on 37 037 single-nucleotide polymorphism loci, and population density as an axis of environmental variation. All traits showed variation with population density and all traits showed some evidence for depression because of either an individual's own inbreeding or maternal inbreeding. However, only six traits showed evidence for an interaction in the expected direction, and only two interactions were statistically significant. We identify three possible reasons why wild population studies may generally fail to find strong support for interactions between inbreeding depression and environmental variation compared with experimental studies. First, for species with biparental inbreeding only, the amount of observed inbreeding in natural populations is generally low compared with that used in experimental studies. Second, it is possible that experimental studies sometimes actually impose higher levels of stress than organisms experience in the wild. Third, some purging of the deleterious recessive alleles that underpin interaction effects may occur in the wild.

Temporal variation in selection on male and female traits in wild tree crickets

Understanding temporal variation in selection in natural populations is necessary to accurately estimate rates of divergence and macroevolutionary processes. Temporal variation in the strength and direction of selection on sex‐specific traits can also explain stasis in male and female phenotype and sexual dimorphism. I investigated changes in strength and form of viability selection (via predation by wasps) in a natural population of male and female tree crickets over 4 years. I found that although the source of viability stayed the same, viability selection affected males and females differently, and the strength, direction and form of selection varied considerably from year to year. In general, males experienced significant linear selection and significant selection differentials more frequently than females, and different male traits experienced significant linear selection each year. This yearly variation resulted in overall weak but significant convex selection on a composite male trait that mostly represented leg size and wing width. Significant selection on female phenotype was uncommon, but when it was detected, it was invariably nonlinear. Significant concave selection on traits representing female body size was observed in some years, as the largest and smallest females were preyed on less (the largest may have been too heavy for flying wasps to carry). Viability selection was significantly different between males and females in 2 of 4 years. Although viability selection via predation has the potential to drive phenotypic change and sexual dimorphism, temporal variation in selection may maintain stasis.

Genomic analysis reveals depression due to both individual and maternal inbreeding in a free-living mammal population

There is ample evidence for inbreeding depression manifested as a reduction in fitness or fitness-related traits in the focal individual. In many organisms, fitness is not only affected by genes carried by the individual, but also by genes carried by their parents, for example if receiving parental care. While maternal effects have been described in many systems, the extent to which inbreeding affects fitness directly through the focal individual, or indirectly through the inbreeding coefficients of its parents, has rarely been examined jointly. The Soay sheep study population is an excellent system in which to test for both effects, as lambs receive extended maternal care. Here, we tested for both maternal and individual inbreeding depression in three fitness-related traits (birthweight and weight and hindleg length at 4 months of age) and three fitness components (first-year survival, adult annual survival and annual breeding success), using either pedigree-derived inbreeding or genomic estimators calculated using ~37 000 SNP markers. We found evidence for inbreeding depression in 4-month hindleg and weight, first-year survival in males, and annual survival and breeding success in adults. Maternal inbreeding was found to depress both birthweight and 4-month weight. We detected more instances of significant inbreeding depression using genomic estimators than the pedigree, which is partly explained through the increased sample sizes available. In conclusion, our results highlight that cross-generational inbreeding effects warrant further exploration in species with parental care and that modern genomic tools can be used successfully instead of, or alongside, pedigrees in natural populations.

Asynchrony of senescence among phenotypic traits in a wild mammal population

The degree to which changes in lifespan are coupled to changes in senescence in different physiological systems and phenotypic traits is a central question in biogerontology. It is underpinned by deeper biological questions about whether or not senescence is a synchronised process, or whether levels of synchrony depend on species or environmental context. Understanding how natural selection shapes patterns of synchrony in senescence across physiological systems and phenotypic traits demands the longitudinal study of many phenotypes under natural conditions. Here, we examine the patterns of age-related variation in late adulthood in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) that have been the subject of individual-based monitoring for thirty years. We examined twenty different phenotypic traits in both males and females, encompassing vital rates (survival and fecundity), maternal reproductive performance (offspring birth weight, birth date and survival), male rutting behaviour, home range measures, parasite burdens, and body mass. We initially quantified age-related variation in each trait having controlled for annual variation in the environment, among-individual variation and selective disappearance effects. We then standardised our age-specific trait means and tested whether age trajectories could be meaningfully grouped according to sex or the type of trait. Whilst most traits showed age-related declines in later life, we found striking levels of asynchrony both within and between the sexes. Of particular note, female fecundity and reproductive performance declined with age, but male annual reproductive success did not. We also discovered that whilst home range size and quality decline with age in females, home range size increases with age in males. Our findings highlight the complexity of phenotypic ageing under natural conditions and, along with emerging data from other wild populations and laboratory models, suggest that the long-standing hypothesis within evolutionary biology that fitness-related traits should senesce in a synchronous manner is seriously flawed.

Adult survival selection in relation to multilocus heterozygosity and body size in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita

Both phenotypic and genetic quality can influence the survival of individuals through time, although their relative influences are rarely addressed simultaneously. Here we used capture-mark-recapture modelling to assess the influence of both multilocus heterozygosity (MLH) and body size on apparent adult survival in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita, using a sample of 391 individuals genotyped at 11 microsatellites, while controlling for the effects of sex. No effect of body size on either adult survival or capture rate was found. In the best model, survival was a logit linear function of MLH, whereas detection probability was a sex-dependent logit linear function of the logarithm of field effort, increasing with time and affected by a random individual effect. Using a Bayesian approach, we found that MLH explained 1.14% of the total deviance, as expected from theory and previous studies of heterozygosity-fitness correlations, with no evidence for local effects. However, results from capture-mark-recapture modelling indicated that expected longevity varied from 4.8 years in the least heterozygous individuals (MLH = 0.37) to 10.6 years in the most heterozygous ones (MLH = 1), thus suggesting that MLH had potentially a substantial effect on survival. We discuss our results in relation to current hypotheses about the origin of heterozygosity-fitness correlations.

The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species

Polymorphic species have been the focus of important work in evolutionary biology. It has been suggested that colour polymorphic species have specific evolutionary and population dynamics that enable them to persist through environmental changes better than less variable species. We suggest that recent empirical and theoretical work indicates that polymorphic species may be more vulnerable to extinction than previously thought. This vulnerability arises because these species often have a number of correlated sexual, behavioural, life history and ecological traits, which can have a simple genetic underpinning. When exacerbated by environmental change, these alternate strategies can lead to conflict between morphs at the genomic and population levels, which can directly or indirectly affect population and evolutionary dynamics. In this perspective, we identify a number of ways in which the nature of the correlated traits, their underpinning genetic architecture, and the inevitable interactions between colour morphs can result in a reduction in population fitness. The principles illustrated here apply to all kinds of discrete polymorphism (e.g. behavioural syndromes), but we focus primarily on colour polymorphism because they are well studied. We urge further empirical investigation of the genetic architecture and interactions in polymorphic species to elucidate the impact on population fitness.

Natural selection on individual variation in tolerance of gastrointestinal nematode infection

A 25-year study of wild sheep shows that individuals vary in how quickly they lose weight as parasite infections increase, and that those who lose the least weight when heavily infected produce more offspring.

Hosts may mitigate the impact of parasites by two broad strategies: resistance, which limits parasite burden, and tolerance, which limits the fitness or health cost of increasing parasite burden. The degree and causes of variation in both resistance and tolerance are expected to influence host–parasite evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics and inform disease management, yet very little empirical work has addressed tolerance in wild vertebrates. Here, we applied random regression models to longitudinal data from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep to estimate individual tolerance, defined as the rate of decline in body weight with increasing burden of highly prevalent gastrointestinal nematode parasites. On average, individuals lost weight as parasite burden increased, but whereas some lost weight slowly as burden increased (exhibiting high tolerance), other individuals lost weight significantly more rapidly (exhibiting low tolerance). We then investigated associations between tolerance and fitness using selection gradients that accounted for selection on correlated traits, including body weight. We found evidence for positive phenotypic selection on tolerance: on average, individuals who lost weight more slowly with increasing parasite burden had higher lifetime breeding success. This variation did not have an additive genetic basis. These results reveal that selection on tolerance operates under natural conditions. They also support theoretical predictions for the erosion of additive genetic variance of traits under strong directional selection and fixation of genes conferring tolerance. Our findings provide the first evidence of selection on individual tolerance of infection in animals and suggest practical applications in animal and human disease management in the face of highly prevalent parasites.

Animals can defend themselves against parasites through either resistance (reducing parasite numbers, for example, by killing them) or tolerance (maintaining health as infections levels increase, for example, by repairing damage). Resistance has been well-studied in wild animals, but tolerance has been less so. We analysed data on body weight collected over 25 years on a natural population of Soay sheep, infected with parasitic gut worms. As parasite burden increased, sheep lost weight. Crucially, there was variation among individuals: some lost weight rapidly with increasing infections (i.e., showed “low tolerance”), whereas others lost weight slowly (i.e., showed “high tolerance”). The least tolerant individuals lost 4.5 kg of body weight across the range of parasite burdens that we saw, whereas the most tolerant lost only around 0.36 kg. However, variation in tolerance did not have a heritable genetic basis, so that although tolerance varied between individuals, this was not due to genetic differences. Further analysis revealed that there was natural selection on tolerance. Individuals who were more tolerant of infection produced more offspring over the course of their lives. This study shows that natural selection can act upon resistance and tolerance simultaneously in nature, a result that has implications for both human health and livestock management.

Artificial selection on larval growth curves in Tribolium: correlated responses and constraints

Body size is often constrained from evolving. Although artificial selection on body size in insects frequently results in a sizable response, these responses usually bear fitness costs. Further, these experiments tend to select only on size at one landmark age, rather than selecting for patterns of growth over the whole larval life stage. To address whether constraints may be caused by larval growth patterns rather than final size, we implemented a function-valued (FV) trait method of selection, in which entire larval growth curves from Tribolium were artificially selected. The selection gradient function used was previously predicted to give the maximal response and was implemented using a novel selection index in the FV framework. Results indicated a significant response after one generation of selection, but no response in subsequent generations. Correlated responses included increased mortality, increased critical weight, and decreased development time (DT). The lack of response in size and development time after the first generation was likely caused by increased mortality suffered in selected lines; we demonstrated that the selection criterion caused both increased body size and increased mortality. We conclude that artificial selection on continuous traits using FV methods is very efficient and that the constraint of body size evolution is likely caused by a suite of trade-offs with other traits.

Estimating quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations: a comparison of pedigree and genomic approaches

The estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations is generally limited by the accuracy and completeness of the available pedigree information. Using relatedness at genomewide markers can potentially remove this limitation and lead to less biased and more precise estimates. We estimated heritability, maternal genetic effects and genetic correlations for body size traits in an unmanaged long-term study population of Soay sheep on St Kilda using three increasingly complete and accurate estimates of relatedness: (i) Pedigree 1, using observation-derived maternal links and microsatellite-derived paternal links; (ii) Pedigree 2, using SNP-derived assignment of both maternity and paternity; and (iii) whole-genome relatedness at 37 037 autosomal SNPs. In initial analyses, heritability estimates were strikingly similar for all three methods, while standard errors were systematically lower in analyses based on Pedigree 2 and genomic relatedness. Genetic correlations were generally strong, differed little between the three estimates of relatedness and the standard errors declined only very slightly with improved relatedness information. When partitioning maternal effects into separate genetic and environmental components, maternal genetic effects found in juvenile traits increased substantially across the three relatedness estimates. Heritability declined compared to parallel models where only a maternal environment effect was fitted, suggesting that maternal genetic effects are confounded with direct genetic effects and that more accurate estimates of relatedness were better able to separate maternal genetic effects from direct genetic effects. We found that the heritability captured by SNP markers asymptoted at about half the SNPs available, suggesting that denser marker panels are not necessarily required for precise and unbiased heritability estimates. Finally, we present guidelines for the use of genomic relatedness in future quantitative genetics studies in natural populations.

Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses

Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.

Size selectivity of predation by brown bears depends on the density of their sockeye salmon prey

Can variation in prey density drive changes in the intensity or direction of selective predation in natural systems? Despite ample evidence of density-dependent selection, the influence of prey density on predatory selection patterns has seldom been investigated empirically. We used 20 years of field data on brown bears (Ursus arctos) foraging on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Alaska, to test the hypothesis that salmon density affects the strength of size-selective predation. Measurements from 41,240 individual salmon were used to calculate variance-standardized selection differentials describing the direction and magnitude of selection. Across the time series, the intensity of predatory selection was inversely correlated with salmon density; greater selection for smaller salmon occurred at low salmon densities as bears' tendency to kill larger-than-average salmon was magnified. This novel connection between density dependence and selective predation runs contrary to some aspects of optimal foraging theory and differs from many observations of density-dependent selection because (1) the direction of selection remains constant while its magnitude changes as a function of density and (2) stronger selection is observed at low abundance. These findings indicate that sockeye salmon may be subject to fishery-induced size selection from both direct mechanisms and latent effects of altered predatory selection patterns on the spawning grounds, resulting from reduced salmon abundance.

Variance component analysis of body mass in a wild population of deer (Odocoileus virginianus): results from two decades of research

Context Long-term studies of large, vertebrate mammals using capture–recapture data are scarce, even though long-term ecological studies are requisite to understanding quantitative genetics and evolutionary processes that can be applied as part of management programs. Aims Objectives were to (1) partition components of variation in body mass to understand the differential effects of environmental variation on the sexes during ontogeny, to better prescribe habitat-improvement projects, and (2) estimate repeatability to assess potential for selection on body mass. Methods We used a 23-year dataset (1983–2005) of capture–recapture records of wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to estimate components of variance and repeatability of body mass. We used an animal-model approach that employed the use of general linear mixed models and restricted maximum likelihood to adjust for the effects of age (i.e. fixed effect), and to partition the total phenotypic variance into among-individual (i.e. the deer), permanent environmental (i.e. year of birth) and temporary environmental (i.e. year of measurement and residual) effects (all modelled as random effects). Key results We found that body mass increased with age in both sexes, repeatability of body mass was 0.595 for females and 0.716 for males, and among-individual variation was more influential on body mass than were permanent and temporary environmental effects combined. Year of birth was more important in males than females, but changed during the course of ontogeny for both sexes. Year of measurement did not influence post-rut body mass in males, but did contribute to variation in body mass of females. Conclusions These long-term data offer insights into the sources of variation that influence body mass of deer, which can be used to understand how environmental sources of variation influence phenotypic traits, and for developing management plans and making selection decisions. Implications Knowledge of repeatability (as an upper limit to heritability) can be used to make management decisions related to selection, culling and breeding, whereas understanding environmental effects can lead to better management recommendations (e.g. habitat-improvement projects).

The past, present and future of reproductive skew theory and experiments

A major evolutionary question is how reproductive sharing arises in cooperatively breeding species despite the inherent reproductive conflicts in social groups. Reproductive skew theory offers one potential solution: each group member gains or is allotted inclusive fitness equal to or exceeding their expectation from reproducing on their own. Unfortunately, a multitude of skew models with conflicting predictions has led to confusion in both testing and evaluating skew theory. The confusion arises partly because one set of models (the 'transactional' type) answer the ultimate evolutionary question of what ranges of reproductive skew can yield fitness-enhancing solutions for all group members. The second set of models ('compromise') give an evolutionarily proximate, game-theoretic evolutionarily stable state (ESS) solution that determines reproductive shares based on relative competitive abilities. However, several predictions arising from compromise models require a linear payoff to increased competition and do not hold with non-linear payoffs. Given that for most species it may be very difficult or impossible to determine the true relationship between effort devoted to competition and reproductive share gained, compromise models are much less predictive than previously appreciated. Almost all skew models make one quantitative prediction (e.g. realized skew must fall within ranges predicted by transactional models), and two qualitative predictions (e.g. variation in relatedness or competitive ability across groups affects skew). A thorough review of the data finds that these three predictions are relatively rarely supported. As a general rule, therefore, the evolution of cooperative breeding appears not to be dependent on the ability of group members to monitor relatedness or competitive ability in order to adjust their behaviour dynamically to gain reproductive share. Although reproductive skew theory fails to predict within-group dynamics consistently, it does better at predicting quantitative differences in skew across populations or species. This suggests that kin selection can play a significant role in the evolution of sociality. To advance our understanding of reproductive skew will require focusing on a broader array of factors, such as the frequency of mistaken identity, delayed fitness payoffs, and selection pressures arising from across-group competition. We furthermore suggest a novel approach to investigate the sharing of reproduction that focuses on the underlying genetics of skew. A quantitative genetics approach allows the partitioning of variance in reproductive share itself or that of traits closely associated with skew into genetic and non-genetic sources. Thus, we can determine the heritability of reproductive share and infer whether it actually is the focus of natural selection. We view the 'animal model' as the most promising empirical method where the genetics of reproductive share can be directly analyzed in wild populations. In the quest to assess whether skew theory can provide a framework for understanding the evolution of sociality, quantitative genetics will be a central tool in future research.

The population growth consequences of variation in individual heterozygosity

Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (p_t(i)) as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count – a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth.

Speeding up microevolution: the effects of increasing temperature on selection and genetic variance in a wild bird population

The authors show that environmental variation may lead to a positive association between the annual strength of selection and expression of genetic variance in a wild bird population, which can speed up microevolution and have important consequences for how fast natural populations adapt to environmental changes.

The amount of genetic variance underlying a phenotypic trait and the strength of selection acting on that trait are two key parameters that determine any evolutionary response to selection. Despite substantial evidence that, in natural populations, both parameters may vary across environmental conditions, very little is known about the extent to which they may covary in response to environmental heterogeneity. Here we show that, in a wild population of great tits (Parus major), the strength of the directional selection gradients on timing of breeding increased with increasing spring temperatures, and that genotype-by-environment interactions also predicted an increase in additive genetic variance, and heritability, of timing of breeding with increasing spring temperature. Consequently, we therefore tested for an association between the annual selection gradients and levels of additive genetic variance expressed each year; this association was positive, but non-significant. However, there was a significant positive association between the annual selection differentials and the corresponding heritability. Such associations could potentially speed up the rate of micro-evolution and offer a largely ignored mechanism by which natural populations may adapt to environmental changes.

The speed of evolutionary change in a phenotypic trait is determined by two key components: the amount of genetic variance underlying the trait and the strength of selection acting on it. Many studies have shown that both selection and expression of genetic variance may depend on the environmental conditions the population experiences. However, the possibility that the strength of selection and the expression of genetic variance become positively or negatively associated as a result of this environmental covariance, so as to speed up or hamper an evolutionary response, has been largely ignored. Here we show that, in a wild bird population, the annual strength of selection on and the expression of genetic variance in timing of breeding (a key life history trait) are positively associated due to changing environmental conditions (warmer temperatures). Such a positive association should potentially speed up any microevolutionary response to selection (such as that imposed by climate warming). Our results illustrate the existence of substantial temporal variation in response to environmental heterogeneity, and thus highlight a so far neglected mechanism that may be important in determining the evolutionary dynamics in natural populations.

Adaptive landscapes and density-dependent selection in declining salmonid populations: going beyond numerical responses to human disturbance

Theory suggests an important role for population density in shaping adaptive landscapes through density-dependent selection. Here, we identify five methodological approaches for studying such selection, review the existing empirical evidence for it, and ask whether current declines in abundance can be expected to trigger evolutionary responses in salmonid fishes. Across taxa we find substantial amounts of evidence for population density influencing the location of adaptive peaks for a range of traits, and, in the presence of frequency dependence, changing the shape of selection (stabilizing versus disruptive). For salmonids, biological and theoretical considerations suggest that the optimal value of a number of traits associated with juvenile competitive ability (e.g. egg size, timing of emergence from nests, dominance ability), may depend on population density. For adults, more direct experimental and comparative evidence suggest that secondary sexual traits can be subject to density-dependent selection. There is also evidence that density affects the frequency-dependent selection likely responsible for the expression of alternative male reproductive phenotypes in salmon. Less is known however about the role of density in maintaining genetic variation among juveniles. Further efforts are required to elucidate the indirect evolutionary effects of declining population abundances, both in salmonids and in other anthropogenically challenged organisms.

MAPPING QUANTITATIVE TRAIT LOCI UNDERLYING FITNESS-RELATED TRAITS IN A FREE-LIVING SHEEP POPULATION

We searched for quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying fitness-related traits in a free-living pedigree of 588 Soay sheep in which a genetic map using 251 markers with an average spacing of 15 cM had been established previously. Traits examined included birth date and weight, considered both as maternal and offspring traits, foreleg length, hindleg length, and body weight measured on animals in August and jaw length and metacarpal length measured on cleaned skeletal material. In some cases the data were split to consider different age classes separately, yielding a total of 15 traits studied. Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variance were estimated for each trait and, for those traits showing nonzero heritability (N= 12), a QTL search was conducted by comparing a polygenic model with a model including a putative QTL. Support for a QTL at genome-wide significance was found on chromosome 11 for jaw length; suggestive QTL were found on chromosomes 2 and 5 (for birth date as a trait of the lamb), 8 (birth weight as a trait of the lamb), and 15 (adult hindleg length). We discuss the prospects for refining estimates of QTL position and effect size in the study population, and for QTL searches in free-living pedigrees in general.

Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution

There has recently been great interest in applying theoretical quantitative genetic models to empirical studies of evolution in wild populations. However, while classical models assume environmental constancy, most natural populations exist in variable environments. Here, we applied a novel analytical technique to a long-term study of birthweight in wild sheep and examined, for the first time, how variation in environmental quality simultaneously influences the strength of natural selection and the genetic basis of trait variability. In addition to demonstrating that selection and genetic variance vary dramatically across environments, our results show that environmental heterogeneity induces a negative correlation between these two parameters. Harsh environmental conditions were associated with strong selection for increased birthweight but low genetic variance, and vice versa. Consequently, the potential for microevolution in this population is constrained by either a lack of heritable variation (in poor environments) or by a reduced strength of selection (in good environments). More generally, environmental dependence of this nature may act to limit rates of evolution, maintain genetic variance, and favour phenotypic stasis in many natural systems. Assumptions of environmental constancy are likely to be violated in natural systems, and failure to acknowledge this may generate highly misleading expectations for phenotypic microevolution.

Determinants of quality in a long-lived colonial species

1. In many animal populations a small proportion of individuals produce the majority of surviving offspring, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Behaviour may be an important determinant of variation in fitness: 'high-quality' individuals may have enhanced abilities in foraging or predator and parasite avoidance. 2. The role of behaviour in determining variation in quality was examined using the common guillemot Uria aalge, a monogamous seabird with biparental care. Using a novel mixed model approach, we analysed binary data on breeding success of each pair attempting to breed in each year with variables critical to breeding success (timing of breeding; inferred age; breeding experience and success; number of nest sites and partners) as fixed effects. Random effects for year, male, female and each distinct pairing of a male and a female were included in the model, allowing a quality estimate to be derived for each individual and pair. A range of behaviours associated with breeding were examined in relation to these quality estimates. 3. Breeding success declined with timing of breeding, and increased initially with age before declining in old age. It increased with previous successful experience, not breeding experience per se, until senescence effects became apparent. For males, breeding success declined with increasing numbers of mates. 4. The most important behavioural determinants of quality operated at the level of the pair, with the time mates spent together at the site and chick feeding rates both positively related to quality. At the individual level, trip durations and feeding rates were associated with female but not male quality, suggesting that pair quality was operating principally through the female. However, removal of laying date, the most important component in the binomial model, confirmed that the pair effect was much larger than the female effect. 5. This study demonstrates the potential of mixed modelling to determine quality estimates based on long-term breeding histories. The probability of a successful reproductive attempt was explained by the timing of breeding, age, successful breeding experience and number of mates. Behaviour was an important proximate mechanism underlying quality, in particular the foraging abilities of the pair, and the female's contribution to offspring provisioning. In species with biparental care, behavioural correlates of quality operate most strongly at the scale of the breeding pair, because contributions from both individuals are required for a successful outcome.

Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time

Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions.

Ontogeny of additive and maternal genetic effects: lessons from domestic mammals

Evolution of size and growth depends on heritable variation arising from additive and maternal genetic effects. Levels of heritable (and nonheritable) variation might change over ontogeny, increasing through "variance compounding" or decreasing through "compensatory growth." We test for these processes using a meta-analysis of age-specific weight traits in domestic ungulates. Generally, mean standardized variance components decrease with age, consistent with compensatory growth. Phenotypic convergence among adult sheep occurs through decreasing environmental and maternal genetic variation. Maternal variation similarly declines in cattle. Maternal genetic effects are thus reduced with age (both in absolute and relative terms). Significant trends in heritability (decreasing in cattle, increasing in sheep) result from declining maternal and environmental components rather than from changing additive variation. There was no evidence for increasing standardized variance components. Any compounding must therefore be masked by more important compensatory processes. While extrapolation of these patterns to processes in natural population is difficult, our results highlight the inadequacy of assuming constancy in genetic parameters over ontogeny. Negative covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects was common. Negative correlations with additive and maternal genetic variances indicate that antagonistic pleiotropy (between additive and maternal genetic effects) may maintain genetic variance and limit responses to selection.

Heterozygosity, inbreeding and neonatal traits in Soay sheep on St Kilda

We investigated whether birth weight and neonatal survival, a period within which 24% of all mortalities occur, were correlated with levels of inbreeding in St Kilda Soay sheep, using pedigree inbreeding coefficients and four marker-based estimators of inbreeding. None of the inbreeding estimators, either of the offspring, or of their mothers, explained significant variation in a lamb's birth weight or probability of surviving the neonatal period, suggesting low inbreeding depression for these traits. We evaluated the correlation between the marker-based measures of inbreeding and inbreeding coefficients obtained from the Soay pedigree, where paternal links were inferred using the same panel of microsatellite markers. Even when using a relatively complete portion of the pedigree, in which all individuals had known maternal and paternal grandparents, the correlation was found to be weak (r = -0.207, where mean f = 0.0168). These results add support to the recent prediction that when the mean and variance in inbreeding are low in a population, heterozygosity-fitness correlations can be very weak or even undetectable. The pursuit of more detailed pedigrees offers the best prospect for identifying inbreeding depression within this study population.

Maternal genetic effects set the potential for evolution in a free-living vertebrate population

Heritable maternal effects have important consequences for the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic traits under selection, but have only rarely been tested for or quantified in evolutionary studies. Here we estimate maternal effects on early-life traits in a feral population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) from St Kilda, Scotland. We then partition the maternal effects into genetic and environmental components to obtain the first direct estimates of maternal genetic effects in a free-living population, and furthermore test for covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects. Using an animal model approach, direct heritabilities (h2) were low but maternal genetic effects (m2) represented a relatively large proportion of the total phenotypic variance for each trait (birth weight m2=0.119, birth date m2=0.197, natal litter size m2=0.211). A negative correlation between direct and maternal genetic effects was estimated for each trait, but was only statistically significant for natal litter size (ram= -0.714). Total heritabilities (incorporating variance from heritable maternal effects and the direct-maternal genetic covariance) were significant for birth weight and birth date but not for natal litter size. Inadequately specified models greatly overestimated additive genetic variance and hence direct h2 (by a factor of up to 6.45 in the case of birth date). We conclude that failure to model heritable maternal variance can result in over- or under-estimation of the potential for traits to respond to selection, and advocate an increased effort to explicitly measure maternal genetic effects in evolutionary studies.

Sex-specific selective pressures on body mass in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula

The direction, intensity and shape of viability-, sexual- and fecundity selection on body mass were investigated in a natural population of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula), combining parentage assignment through molecular techniques and mark-recapture data over several generations. A highly significant stabilizing viability selection was found in both sexes, presumably stemming from the constraints imposed by their insectivorous habits and high metabolic costs. Sexual selection, directional in both sexes, was twice as large in males than in females. Our results suggest that body mass matters in this context by facilitating the acquisition and defense of a breeding territory. No fecundity selection could be detected. The direction of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) was in agreement with the observed pattern of selective pressures: males were heavier than females, because of stronger sexual selection. SSD intensity, however, was low compared with other mammals, because of the low level of polygyny, the active role of females in territory defense and the intensity of stabilizing viability selection.