Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure

Amid the escalating global climatic challenges, hydrological risks significantly influence human settlement patterns, underscoring the imperative for an in-depth comprehension of hydrological change's ramifications on human migration. However, predominant research has been circumscribed to the national level. The study delves into the nonlinear effects of hydrological risks on migration dynamics in 46,776 global subnational units. Meanwhile, leveraging remote sensing, we procured globally consistent metrics of hydrological intrusion exposure, offering a holistic risk assessment encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability dimensions, thus complementing previous work. Here, we show that exposure is the primary migration driver, surpassing socioeconomic factors. Surrounding disparities further intensified exposure's impact. Vulnerable groups, especially the economically disadvantaged and elderly, tend to remain in high-risk areas, with the former predominantly migrating within proximate vicinities. The nonlinear analysis delineates an S-shaped trajectory for hydrological exposure, transitioning from resistance to migration and culminating in entrapment, revealing dependence on settlement resilience and adaptability.

The island biogeography of human population size

For decades, biogeographers have sought a better understanding of how organisms are distributed among islands. However, the island biogeography of humans remains largely unknown. Here, we investigate how human population size varies among 486 islands at two spatial scales. At a global scale, we tested whether population size increases with island area and declines with island elevation and nearest mainland, as is common in non-human species, or whether humans escape such biogeographic constraints. At a regional scale, we tested whether population sizes vary among islands within archipelagos according to the positioning of different cultural source pools. Results illustrate that on a global scale, human populations increased in size with island area, similar to non-human species, yet they did not decline in size with elevation and distance to nearest mainland. At a regional scale, human population size often varied among islands within archipelagos relative to the location of different cultural source pools. Despite broad-scale similarities in the geographical distribution of human and non-human species among islands, results from this study indicate that the island biogeography of humans may also be influenced by archipelago-specific social, political and historical circumstances.

Global Mangrove Deforestation and Its Interacting Social-Ecological Drivers: A Systematic Review and Synthesis

Globally, mangrove forests are substantially declining, and a globally synthesized database containing the drivers of deforestation and drivers’ interactions is scarce. Here, we synthesized the key social-ecological drivers of global mangrove deforestation by reviewing about two hundred published scientific studies over the last four decades (from 1980 to 2021). Our focus was on both natural and anthropogenic drivers with their gradual and abrupt impacts and on their geographic coverage of effects, and how these drivers interact. We also summarized the patterns of global mangrove coverage decline between 1990 and 2020 and identified the threatened mangrove species. Our consolidated studies reported an 8600 km2 decline in the global mangrove coverage between 1990 and 2020, with the highest decline occurring in South and Southeast Asia (3870 km2). We could identify 11 threatened mangrove species, two of which are critically endangered (Sonneratia griffithii and Bruguiera hainseii). Our reviewed studies pointed to aquaculture and agriculture as the predominant driver of global mangrove deforestation though their impacts varied across global regions. Gradual climate variations, i.e., sea-level rise, long-term precipitation, and temperature changes and driven coastline erosion, salinity intrusion and acidity at coasts, constitute the second major group of drivers. Our findings underline a strong interaction across natural and anthropogenic drivers, with the strongest interaction between the driver groups aquaculture and agriculture and industrialization and pollution. Our results suggest prioritizing globally coordinated empirical studies linking drivers and mangrove deforestation and global development of policies for mangrove conservation.

A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be 'trapped' populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making.

Degradation of Coastlines under the Pressure of Urbanization and Tourism: Evidence on the Change of Land Systems from Europe, Asia and Africa

The importance of studying coastal areas is justified by their resources, ecosystem services, and key role played in socio-economic development. Coastal landscapes are subject to increasing demands and pressures, requiring in-depth analyses for finding appropriate tools or policies for a sustainable landscape management. The present study addresses this issue globally, based on case studies from three continents: Romania (Europe), Algeria (Africa), and Vietnam (Asia), focusing on the anthropogenic pressure resulting from land use/land cover change or urban sprawl, taking into account the role of socioeconomic and political factors. The methodology consisted of producing maps and computing and analyzing indicators, correlating geospatial and socio-economic data in a synergistic manner to explore the changes of landscapes, and identify the specific driving forces. The findings show that the pressure of urbanization and tourism on coastal areas increased, while the drivers and impacts vary. Urbanization is due to derogatory planning in Romania and Algeria, and different national and local goals in Vietnam. The two drivers determine local exemptions from the national regulations, made for profit. In addition to the need for developing and enforcing policies for stopping the degradation and restoring the ecosystems, the findings underline the importance of international cooperation in policy development.

Improved Estimates of Population Exposure in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones of China

With sea level predicted to rise and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding expected to increase due to climate change, high-resolution gridded population datasets have been extensively used to estimate the size of vulnerable populations in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ). China is the most populous country, and populations in its LECZ grew rapidly due to urbanization and remarkable economic growth in coastal areas. In assessing the potential impacts of coastal hazards, the spatial distribution of population exposure in China’s LECZ should be examined. In this study, we propose a combination of multisource remote sensing images, point-of-interest data, and machine learning methods to improve the performance of population disaggregation in coastal China. The resulting population grid map of coastal China for the reference year 2010, with a spatial resolution of 100 × 100 m, is presented and validated. Then, we analyze the distribution of population in LECZ by overlaying the new gridded population data and LECZ footprints. Results showed that the total population exposed in China’s LECZ in 2010 was 158.2 million (random forest prediction) and 160.6 million (Cubist prediction), which account for 12.17% and 12.36% of the national population, respectively. This study also showed the considerable potential in combining geospatial big data for high-resolution population estimation.

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

An Updating System for the Gridded Population Database of China Based on Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Database Technologies

The spatial distribution of population is closely related to land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on both regional and global scales. Population can be redistributed onto geo-referenced square grids according to this relation. In the past decades, various approaches to monitoring LULC using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been developed, which makes it possible for efficient updating of geo-referenced population data. A Spatial Population Updating System (SPUS) is developed for updating the gridded population database of China based on remote sensing, GIS and spatial database technologies, with a spatial resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The SPUS can process standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS L1B) data integrated with a Pattern Decomposition Method (PDM) and an LULC-Conversion Model to obtain patterns of land use and land cover, and provide input parameters for a Population Spatialization Model (PSM). The PSM embedded in SPUS is used for generating 1 km by 1 km gridded population data in each population distribution region based on natural and socio-economic variables. Validation results from finer township-level census data of Yishui County suggest that the gridded population database produced by the SPUS is reliable.

Release of hydrogen sulfide by asteroid impacts in Black Sea and risks for inland human population

The hydrogen sulfide rich waters of the Black Sea pose a potential danger for the surrounding land regions. The impact of an asteroid may cause a catastrophic poisonous gas release in the atmosphere. Some effects of this last phenomenon on the Eastern Black Sea coastal regions are evaluated in this article. Two simple models are proposed to describe the generation of the H(2)S cloud. The initial diameter of the cloud depends on asteroid size. The initial thickness of the cloud depends, in addition, on sea depth at impact location. The wind speed plays an important role in H(2)S cloud dynamics. At 10 m/s wind-speed the cloud margins may be seen at about 150 km from impact location in about 3.2 h. The maximum distance traveled by the hydrogen sulfide cloud increases by increasing the asteroid size and wind speed. The influence of the impact position on the distance traveled by hydrogen sulfide clouds is rather weak, as far as the seawater depth does not change significantly. Two values are considered when referring to the effect of hydrogen sulfide concentrations on humans: the lower concentration limit of 19.88 ppm (which corresponds to fatigue, loss of appetite, headache, irritability, poor memory, dizziness) and the upper concentration limit of 497 ppm (which corresponds to death after single exposures). The land surface area covered by the H(2)S cloud generated by a 1000 m size asteroid during the run-in ranges between about 6080 and 11,520 km(2). This may affect between 145,000 and 276,000 people. When a 250 m size asteroid is considered, the covered land surface area ranges between about 840 and 1,890 km(2) and between 20,000 and 45,000 people may be affected. In case of a 70 m size asteroid, the cloud covers up to 105 km(2) of land during the run-in. This may affect about 2500 people. These are moderate estimates. They do not include the urban population and may be 10 times underestimated for some particular wind directions. General recommendations to diminish the social effects of the impacts are presented.

Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India

This study presents the results of the impact assessment analysis of the coastal zones of Cochin along the southwest coast of India. The climatological cycle of sea level derived for the region for the period 1939-2003 has shown a range of about 17 cm. From the results obtained on the coastal sedimentary environments, it is found that climate-induced sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects. It is also revealed that the mean beach slope and relief play a vital role in land loss of the region. The local relief of coastal zone will decrease as sea level rises, thus increasing the percentage of land above mean sea level subjected to episodic inundations. Results of the yearly probability of damages indicated the urgency to upgrade the existing designs of coastal protection structures. A brief characterisation of the issues on infrastructure and uncertainties in policy planning also are attempted.