Trends in burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma by underlying liver disease in US veterans, 2001-2013

A modified Hospital Frailty Risk Score for patients with cirrhosis undergoing abdominal operations

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Existing tools for perioperative risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis do not incorporate measures of comorbidity. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) is a widely used measure of comorbidity burden in administrative dataset analyses. However, it is not specific to patients with cirrhosis, and application of this index is limited by its complexity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Adult patients with cirrhosis who underwent nontransplant abdominal operations were identified from the National Inpatient Sample, 2016-2018. Adjusted associations between HFRS and in-hospital mortality and length of stay were computed with logistic and Poisson regression. Lasso regularization was used to identify the components of the HFRS most predictive of mortality and develop a simplified index, the cirrhosis-HFRS. Of 10,714 patients with cirrhosis, the majority were male, the median age was 62 years, and 32% of operations were performed electively. HFRS was associated with an increased risk of both in-hospital mortality (OR=6.42; 95% CI: 4.93, 8.36) and length of stay (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=1.79; 95% CI: 1.72, 1.88), with adjustment. Using lasso, we found that a subset of 12 of the 109 ICD-10 codes within the HFRS resulted in superior prediction of mortality in this patient population (AUC = 0.89 vs. 0.79, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

While the 109-component HFRS was associated with adverse surgical outcomes, 12 components accounted for much of the association between the HFRS and mortality. We developed the cirrhosis-HFRS, a tool that demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality and more precisely reflects the specific comorbidity pattern of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis undergoing general surgery procedures.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography

BACKGROUND

Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions.

AIM

To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital. The patients were divided into the modeling group (n = 720) and the control group (n = 164). The study included conventional ultrasound, 2D-SWE, and preoperative laboratory tests. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for malignant liver lesions, which were then depicted as nomograms.

RESULTS

In the modeling group analysis, maximal elasticity (Emax) of tumors and their peripheries, platelet count, cirrhosis, and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies. These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.81) with 84% sensitivity and 61% specificity. The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts, as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.683 and P = 0.658, respectively). Additionally, the mean elasticity (Emean) of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion (MVI) in malignant liver tumors (P = 0.003). Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count (P = 0.002), Emax of tumors (P = 0.033), Emean of tumors (P = 0.042), Emax at tumor periphery (P < 0.001), and Emean at tumor periphery (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

2D-SWE's hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions, correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis After Hepatitis C Virus Cure

Importance

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) declines over time after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure by direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. Liver society guidelines recommend continuing HCC screening for these patients, but data on screening outcomes are lacking.

Objective

To evaluate the association of HCC screening after HCV cure with overall survival.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study evaluated patients with HCV cirrhosis who achieved DAA-induced HCV cure in the Veterans Affairs health care system between January 2014 and December 2022. Data analysis occurred from October 2023 to January 2024.

Exposures

The percentage of time spent up to date with recommended HCC screening was calculated by year of follow-up and during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis (the detectable asymptomatic phase).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was overall survival after HCC diagnosis and was compared by percentage of time spent up to date with screening using Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression. Early-stage HCC at diagnosis and curative treatment were secondary outcomes assessed using logistic regression.

Results

A total of 16 902 individuals were included (median [IQR] age, 64.0 [60.5-67.4] years; 16 426 male [97.2%]), of whom 1622 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC declined from 2.4% (409 of 16 902 individuals) to 1.0% (27 of 2833 individuals) from year 1 to year 7 of follow-up. Being up to date with screening for at least 50% of time during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis was associated with improved overall survival (log-rank test of equality over strata P = .002). In multivariate analysis, each 10% increase in follow-up spent up to date with screening was associated with a 3.2% decrease in the hazard of death (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99). There was a statistically significant interaction between time since HCV cure and screening, with no association observed among those who received a diagnosis of HCC more than 5 years after HCV cure. Each 10% of time spent up to date with screening was associated with a 10.1% increased likelihood of diagnosis with early-stage HCC (95% CI, 6.3%-14.0%) and a 6.8% increased likelihood of curative treatment (95% CI, 2.8%-11.0%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of persons with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved HCV cure and subsequently developed HCC, remaining up to date with screening was associated with improved overall survival, supporting the screening of eligible individuals.

Independent Associations of Aortic Calcification with Cirrhosis and Liver Related Mortality in Veterans with Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal aortic calcifications (AAC) are incidentally found on medical imaging and useful cardiovascular burden approximations. The Morphomic Aortic Calcification Score (MAC) leverages automated deep learning methods to quantify and score AACs. While associations of AAC and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been described, relationships of AAC with other liver diseases and clinical outcome are sparse. This study's purpose was to evaluate AAC and liver-related death in a cohort of Veterans with chronic liver disease (CLD).

METHODS

We utilized the VISN 10 CLD cohort, a regional cohort of Veterans with the three forms of CLD: NAFLD, hepatitis C (HCV), alcohol-associated (ETOH), seen between 2008 and 2014, with abdominal CT scans (n = 3604). Associations between MAC and cirrhosis development, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death were evaluated with Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

The full cohort demonstrated strong associations of MAC and cirrhosis after adjustment: HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.63, 2.78), decompensation HR 2.19 (95% CI 1.60, 3.02), liver-related death HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.46, 3.11), and overall death HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.27, 1.71). These associations seemed to be driven by the non-NAFLD groups for decompensation and liver-related death [HR 2.80 (95% CI 1.52, 5.17; HR 2.34 (95% CI 1.14, 4.83), respectively].

DISCUSSION

MAC was strongly and independently associated with cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death. Surprisingly, stratification results demonstrated comparable or stronger associations among those with non-NAFLD etiology. These findings suggest abdominal aortic calcification may predict liver disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with CLD.

Exploring the potential of drug repurposing for liver diseases: A comprehensive study

Drug repurposing involves the investigation of existing drugs for new indications. It offers a great opportunity to quickly identify a new drug candidate at a lower cost than novel discovery and development. Despite the importance and potential role of drug repurposing, there is no specific definition that healthcare providers and the World Health Organization credit. Unfortunately, many similar and interchangeable concepts are being used in the literature, making it difficult to collect and analyze uniform data on repurposed drugs. This research was conducted based on understanding general criteria for drug repurposing, concentrating on liver diseases. Many drugs have been investigated for their effect on liver diseases even though they were originally approved (or on their way to being approved) for other diseases. Some of the hypotheses for drug repurposing were first captured from the literature and then processed further to test the hypothesis. Recently, with the revolution in bioinformatics techniques, scientists have started to use drug libraries and computer systems that can analyze hundreds of drugs to give a short list of candidates to be analyzed pharmacologically. However, this study revealed that drug repurposing is a potential aid that may help deal with liver diseases. It provides available or under-investigated drugs that could help treat hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, Wilson disease, liver cancer, and fatty liver. However, many further studies are needed to ensure the efficacy of these drugs on a large scale.

Organizational and Implementation Factors Associated with Cirrhosis Care in the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND

The Veterans Health Administration provides care to more than 100,000 Veterans with cirrhosis.

AIMS

This implementation evaluation aimed to understand organizational resources and barriers associated with cirrhosis care.

METHODS

Clinicians across 145 Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers (VAMCs) were surveyed in 2022 about implementing guideline-concordant cirrhosis care. VA Corporate Data Warehouse data were used to assess VAMC performance on two national cirrhosis quality measures: HCC surveillance and esophageal variceal surveillance or treatment (EVST). Organizational factors associated with higher performance were identified using linear regression models.

RESULTS

Responding VAMCs (n = 124, 86%) ranged in resource availability, perceived barriers, and care processes. In multivariable models, factors independently associated with HCC surveillance included on-site interventional radiology and identifying patients overdue for surveillance using a national cirrhosis population management tool ("dashboard"). EVST was significantly associated with dashboard use and on-site gastroenterology services. For larger VAMCs, the average HCC surveillance rate was similar between VAMCs using vs. not using the dashboard (47% vs. 41%), while for smaller and less resourced VAMCs, dashboard use resulted in a 13% rate difference (46% vs. 33%). Likewise, higher EVST rates were more strongly associated with dashboard use in smaller (55% vs. 50%) compared to larger (57% vs. 55%) VAMCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Resources, barriers, and care processes varied across diverse VAMCs. Smaller VAMCs without specialty care achieved HCC and EVST surveillance rates nearly as high as more complex and resourced VAMCs if they used a population management tool to identify the patients due for cirrhosis care.

Comparison of the burden of digestive diseases between China and the United States from 1990 to 2019

Introduction

China has experienced unprecedented transformations unseen in a century and is gradually progressing toward an emerging superpower. The epidemiological trends of digestive diseases in the United States (the US) have significant prescient effects on China.

Methods

We extracted data on 18 digestive diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 Data Resource. Linear regression analysis conducted by the JoinPoint software assessed the average annual percentage change of the burden. We performed subgroup analyses based on sex and age group.

Results

In 2019, there were 836.01 and 180.91 million new cases of digestive diseases in China and the US, causing 1558.01 and 339.54 thousand deaths. The age-standardized incidence rates of digestive diseases in China and the US were 58417.87/100,000 and 55018.65/100,000 respectively, resulting in age-standardized mortality rates of 81.52/100,000 and 60.88/100,000. The rates in China annually decreased by 2.149% for mortality and 2.611% for disability-adjusted life of year (DALY). The mortality and DALY rates of the US, respectively, had average annual percentage changes of -0.219 and -0.251. Enteric infections and cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases accounted for the highest incidence and prevalence in both counties, respectively. The burden of multiple digestive diseases exhibited notable sex disparities. The middle-old persons had higher age-standardized prevalence rates.

Conclusion

China bore a greater burden of digestive diseases, and the evolving patterns were more noticeable. Targeted interventions and urgent measures should be taken in both countries to address the specific burden of digestive diseases based on their different epidemic degree.

Where you live matters: Area deprivation predicts poor survival and liver transplant waitlisting

Social determinants of health (SDOH) are important predictors of poor clinical outcomes in chronic diseases, but their associations among the general cirrhosis population and liver transplantation (LT) are limited. We conducted a retrospective, multiinstitutional analysis of adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis in metropolitan Chicago to determine the associations of poor neighborhood-level SDOH on decompensation complications, mortality, and LT waitlisting. Area deprivation index and covariates extracted from the American Census Survey were aspects of SDOH that were investigated. Among 15 101 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 57.2 years; 6414 (42.5%) were women, 6589 (43.6%) were non-Hispanic White, 3652 (24.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 2662 (17.6%) were Hispanic. Each quintile increase in area deprivation was associated with poor outcomes in decompensation (sHR [subdistribution hazard ratio] 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.10; P < .001), waitlisting (sHR 0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.76; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (sHR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12; P < .001). Domains of SDOH associated with a lower likelihood of waitlisting and survival included low income, low education, poor household conditions, and social support (P < .001). Overall, patients with cirrhosis residing in poor neighborhood-level SDOH had higher decompensation, and mortality, and were less likely to be waitlisted for LT. Further exploration of structural barriers toward LT or optimizing health outcomes is warranted.

Hepatitis-C-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Still a Relevant Etiology beyond a Hepatitis C Infection Cure

BACKGROUND

In the past decades, global changes, including hepatitis B vaccination, hepatitis B and C antiviral therapies, and the increasing prevalence of steatotic liver disease, have influenced the landscape of liver cancer etiologies.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study focused on the etiological factors of de novo hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnoses in an academic center between 2019 and 2022.

RESULTS

Among 352 consecutive patients with HCC, alcohol-related liver disease was the predominant etiology (33.3%), followed by hepatitis C (HCV) infection (30.7%). Significant associations were found between HCC etiology and patient demographics, BCLC stage at diagnosis, and cirrhosis prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas accessibility to antiviral therapy is granted, HCV infection remains as one of the main HCC etiologies. MASLD-related HCC, although growing globally, is not as relevant in our area. Strong public policies need to be implemented to prevent alcohol consumption, the main etiology of liver disease and liver cancer.

Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis Mortality Rates Are Disproportionately Increasing in Younger Women in the United States Between 2000-2020

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous studies show that mortality from chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis is increasing in the United States. However, there are limited data on sex-specific mortality trends by age, race, and geographical location. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive time-trend analysis of liver disease-related mortality rates in the National Center of Health Statistics (NCHS) database.

METHODS

CLD and cirrhosis mortality rates between 20002020 (age-adjusted to the 2000 standard U.S. population) were collected from the NCHS database and categorized by sex and age into older adults (≥55 years) and younger adults (<55 years), race (Non-Hispanic-White, Non-Hispanic-Black, Hispanic, Non-Hispanic-American-Indian/Alaska-Native, and Non-Hispanic-Asian/Pacific-Islander), U.S. state, and cirrhosis etiology. Time trends, annual percentage change (APC), and average APC (AAPC) were estimated using Joinpoint Regression using Monte Carlo permutation analysis. We used tests for parallelism and identicalness for sex-specific pairwise comparisons of mortality trends (two-sided P value cutoff = .05).

RESULTS

Between 20002020, there were 716,651 deaths attributed to CLD and cirrhosis in the U.S. (35.68% women). In the overall population and in older adults, CLD and cirrhosis-related mortality rates were increasing similarly in men and women. However, in younger adults (246,149 deaths, 32.72% women), the rate of increase was greater in women compared with men (AAPC = 3.04 vs 1.08, AAPC-difference = 1.96; P < .001), with non-identical non-parallel data (P values < .001). The disparity was driven by Non-Hispanic-White (AAPC = 4.51 vs 1.79, AAPC-difference = 2.71; P < .001) and Hispanic (AAPC = 1.89 vs -0.65, AAPC-difference = 2.54; P = .001) individuals. The disparity varied between U.S. states and was seen in 16 states, mostly in West Virginia (AAPC = 4.96 vs 0.88, AAPC-difference = 4.08; P < .001) and Pennsylvania (AAPC = 2.81 vs -1.02, AAPC-difference = 3.84; P < .001). Etiology-specific analysis did not show significant sex disparity in younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates due to CLD and cirrhosis in the U.S. are increasing disproportionately in younger women. This finding was driven by higher rates in Non-Hispanic White and Hispanic individuals, with variation between U.S. states. Future studies are warranted to identify the reasons for these trends with the ultimate goal of improving outcomes.

Comprehensive prognostic and immune analysis of sterol O-acyltransferase 1 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Sterol O-acyltransferase 1 (SOAT1) is an important target in the diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer. However, the prognostic value of SOAT1 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still not clear.

AIM

To investigate the correlation of SOAT1 expression with HCC, using RNA-seq and gene expression data of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-liver hepatocellular carcinoma (LIHC) and pan-cancer.

METHODS

The correlation between SOAT1 expression and HCC was analyzed. Cox hazard regression models were conducted to investigate the prognostic value of SOAT1 in HCC. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were explored based on TCGA-LIHC data. Biological processes and functional pathways mediated by SOAT1 were characterized by gene ontology (GO) analysis and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis of differentially expressed genes. In addition, the protein-protein interaction network and co-expression analyses of SOAT1 in HCC were performed to better understand the regulatory mechanisms of SOAT1 in this malignancy.

RESULTS

SOAT1 and SOAT2 were highly expressed in unpaired samples, while only SOAT1 was highly expressed in paired samples. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of SOAT1 expression in tumor samples from LIHC patients compared with para-carcinoma tissues was 0.748, while the area under the curve of SOAT1 expression in tumor samples from LIHC patients compared with GTEx was 0.676. Patients with higher SOAT1 expression had lower survival rates. Results from GO/KEGG and gene set enrichment analyses suggested that the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway, the IL-18 signaling pathway, the calcium signaling pathway, secreted factors, the Wnt signaling pathway, the Jak/STAT signaling pathway, the MAPK family signaling pathway, and cell-cell communication were involved in such association. SOAT1 expression was positively associated with the abundance of macrophages, Th2 cells, T helper cells, CD56bright natural killer cells, and Th1 cells, and negatively linked to the abundance of Th17 cells, dendritic cells, and cytotoxic cells.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that SOAT1 may serve as a novel target for HCC treatment, which is helpful for the development of new strategies for immunotherapy and metabolic therapy.

Global trends in hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma mortality: A public database analysis (1999-2019)

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C is the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and it significantly contributes to the burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there are marked variations in the incidence and mortality rates of HCC across different geographical regions. With the advent of new widely available treatment modalities, such as direct-acting antivirals, it is becoming increasingly imperative to understand the temporal and geographical trends in HCC mortality associated with Hepatitis C. Furthermore, gender disparities in HCC mortality related to Hepatitis C are a crucial, yet underexplored aspect that adds to the disease's global impact. While some studies shed light on gender-specific trends, there is a lack of comprehensive data on global and regional mortality rates, particularly those highlighting gender disparities. This gap in knowledge hinders the development of targeted interventions and resource allocation strategies.

AIM

To understand the global and regional trends in Hepatitis C-related HCC mortality rates from 1990 to 2019, along with gender disparities.

METHODS

We utilized the Global Burden of Disease database, a comprehensive repository for global health metrics to age-standardized mortality rates due to Hepatitis C-related HCC from 1999 to 2019. Rates were evaluated per 100000 population and assessed by World Bank-defined regions. Temporal trends were determined using Joinpoint software and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) method, and results were reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, overall, there was a significant decline in HCC-related mortality rates with an AAPC of -0.80% (95%CI: -0.83 to -0.77). Females demonstrated a marked decrease in mortality with an AAPC of -1.06% (95%CI: -1.09 to -1.03), whereas the male cohort had a lower AAPC of -0.52% (95%CI: -0.55 to -0.48). Regionally, East Asia and the Pacific demonstrated a significant decline with an AAPC of -2.05% (95%CI: -2.10 to -2.00), whereas Europe and Central Asia observed an uptrend with an AAPC of 0.72% (95%CI: 0.69 to 0.74). Latin America and the Caribbean also showed an uptrend with an AAPC of 0.06% (95%CI: 0.02 to 0.11). In the Middle East and North Africa, the AAPC was non-significant at 0.02% (95%CI: -0.09 to 0.12). North America, in contrast, displayed a significant upward trend with an AAPC of 2.63% (95%CI: 2.57 to 2.67). South Asia (AAPC -0.22%, 95%CI: -0.26 to -0.16) and Sub-Saharan Africa (AAPC -0.14%, 95%CI: -0.15 to -0.12) trends significantly declined over the study period.

CONCLUSION

Our study reports disparities in Hepatitis C-related HCC mortality between 1999 to 2019, both regionally and between genders. While East Asia and the Pacific regions showed a promising decline in mortality, North America has experienced a concerning rise in mortality. These regional variations highlight the need for healthcare policymakers and practitioners to tailor public health strategies and interventions. The data serves as a call to action, particularly for regions where mortality rates are not improving, emphasizing the necessity for a nuanced, region-specific approach to combat the global challenge of HCC secondary to Hepatitis C.

Incidence of Etiology-specific Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Diverging Trends and Significant Heterogeneity by Race and Ethnicity

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The main causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) include chronic hepatitis C and B viral infections (HCV, HBV), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and alcohol-related disease (ALD). Etiology-specific HCC incidence rates and temporal trends on a population-basis are needed to improve HCC control and prevention.

METHODS

All 14,420 HCC cases from the Florida statewide cancer registry were individually linked to data from the hospital discharge agency and the viral hepatitis department to determine the predominant etiology of each case diagnosed during 2010 to 2018. Age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs) were used to assess the intersection between etiology and detailed race-ethnicity. Etiology-specific temporal trends based on diagnosis year were assessed using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

HCV remains the leading cause of HCC among men, but since 2017 NAFLD-HCC is the leading cause among women. HCV-HCC AAIRs are particularly high among U.S.-born minority men, including Puerto Rican (10.9 per 100,000), African American (8.0 per 100,000), and U.S.-born Mexican American men (7.6 per 100,000). NAFLD is more common among all Hispanics and Filipinos and HBV-HCC among Asian and Haitian black men. HCV-HCC surpasses HBV-HCC in Asian women. ALD-HCC is high among specific Hispanic male groups. Population-based HCV-HCC rates experienced a rapid decline since 2015 (-9.6% annually), whereas ALD-HCC (+6.0%) and NAFLD-HCC (+4.3%) are rising (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

New direct acting anti-viral drugs have impacted rates of HCV-HCC, offsetting important increases in both ALD- and NAFLD-HCC. Hispanics may be a group of concern because of higher rates for ALD- and NAFLD-HCC. HCC etiology varies remarkably and may warrant specific interventions by detailed race-ethnicity.

Cost of Care for Patients With Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

There are limited longitudinal data on the cost of treating patients with cirrhosis, which hampers value-based improvement initiatives.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis seen in the Veterans Affairs health care system from 2011 to 2015. Patients were followed up through 2019. We identified a sex-matched and age-matched control cohort without cirrhosis. We estimated incremental annual health care costs attributable to cirrhosis for 4 years overall and in subgroups based on severity (compensated, decompensated), cirrhosis complications (ascites, encephalopathy, varices, hepatocellular cancer, acute kidney injury), and comorbidity (Deyo index).

RESULTS

We compared 39,361 patients with cirrhosis with 138,964 controls. The incremental adjusted costs for caring of patients with cirrhosis were $35,029 (95% confidence interval $32,473-$37,585) during the first year and ranged from $14,216 to $17,629 in the subsequent 3 years. Cirrhosis complications accounted for most of these costs. Costs of managing patients with hepatic encephalopathy (year 1 cost, $50,080) or ascites ($50,364) were higher than the costs of managing patients with varices ($20,488) or hepatocellular cancer ($37,639) in the first year. Patients with acute kidney injury or those who had multimorbidity were the most costly at $64,413 and $66,653 in the first year, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Patients with cirrhosis had substantially higher health care costs than matched controls and multimorbid patients had even higher costs. Cirrhosis complications accounted for most of the excess cost, so preventing complications has the largest potential for cost saving and could serve as targets for improvement.

Increasing prevalence of cirrhosis among insured adults in the United States, 2012-2018

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a "silent killer" and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately characterize the prevalence of cirrhosis because of its increasing healthcare burden.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, trends in cirrhosis prevalence were evaluated using administrative data from one of the largest national health insurance providers in the US. (2011-2018). Enrolled adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis defined by ICD-9 and ICD-10 were included in the study. The primary outcome measured in the study was the prevalence of cirrhosis 2011-2018.

RESULTS

Among the 371,482 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 62.2 (±13.7) years; 53.3% had commercial insurance and 46.4% had Medicare Advantage. The most frequent cirrhosis etiologies were alcohol-related (26.0%), NASH (20.9%) and HCV (20.0%). Mean time of follow-up was 725 (±732.3) days. The observed cirrhosis prevalence was 0.71% in 2018, a 2-fold increase from 2012 (0.34%). The highest prevalence observed was among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance (1.67%) in 2018. Prevalence increased in each US. state, with Southern states having the most rapid rise (2.3-fold). The most significant increases were observed in patients with NASH (3.9-fold) and alcohol-related (2-fold) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Between 2012-2018, the prevalence of liver cirrhosis doubled among insured patients. Alcohol-related and NASH cirrhosis were the most significant contributors to this increase. Patients living in the South, and those insured by Medicare Advantage also have disproportionately higher prevalence of cirrhosis. Public health interventions are important to mitigate this concerning trajectory of strain to the health system.

The Association Between Homelessness and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Veterans With Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Homelessness adversely affects patient outcomes in broad cohort studies; however, its impact on key liver-related outcomes in patients with cirrhosis is understudied. We aimed to address this knowledge gap using data from the Veterans Health Administration, a cohort disproportionately affected by homelessness.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of the Veterans Health Administration patients with incident cirrhosis diagnosis between January 2008 and February 2022. Homeless status was classified at baseline and as time-updating variable during follow-up. Inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression was performed to evaluate the association between homelessness and outcomes of all-cause mortality, cirrhosis decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

A total of 117,698 patients were included in the cohort, of whom 14,243 (12.1%) were homeless at baseline. In inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression, homelessness was associated with a 24% higher hazard of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-1.26, P < 0.001). However, in competing risk regression models, homelessness was associated with a reduced subhazard of decompensation (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.84-0.88, P < 0.001) and hepatocellular carcinoma (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89, P < 0.001). In cause-specific mortality analysis, homeless patients had significantly increased non-liver-related and liver-related mortality; however, the magnitude of effect size was greater for non-liver-related mortality (csHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.40, P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

Homelessness in veterans with cirrhosis is associated with increased all-cause mortality; however, this is likely mediated primarily through non-liver-related factors. Future studies are needed to explore drivers of mortality and improve mitigation strategies in these patients.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Diagnosis and Management in 2021: A National Veterans Affairs Quality Improvement Project

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic profoundly disrupted preventative health care services including cancer screening. As the largest provider of cirrhosis care in the United States, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Gastroenterology and Hepatology Program aimed to assess factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival.

METHODS

Veterans with a new diagnosis of HCC in 2021 were identified from electronic health records (N = 2306). Structured medical record extraction was performed by expert reviewers in a 10% random subsample of Veterans with new HCC diagnoses. Factors associated with stage at diagnosis, receipt of treatment, and survival were assessed using multivariable models.

RESULTS

Among 199 patients with confirmed HCC, the average age was 71 years and most (72%) had underlying cirrhosis. More than half (54%) were at an early stage (T1 or T2) at diagnosis. Less-advanced liver disease, number of imaging tests adequate for HCC screening, HCC diagnosis in the VA, and receipt of VA primary care were associated significantly with early stage diagnosis. HCC-directed treatments were administered to 145 (73%) patients after a median of 37 days (interquartile range, 19-54 d) from diagnosis, including 70 (35%) patients who received potentially curative treatments. Factors associated with potentially curative (vs no) treatments included HCC screening, early stage at diagnosis, and better performance status. Having fewer comorbidities and better performance status were associated significantly with noncurative (vs no) treatment. Early stage diagnosis, diagnosis in the VA system, and receipt of curative treatment were associated significantly with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of HCC screening and engagement in care for HCC diagnosis, treatment, and survival while demonstrating the feasibility of developing a national quality improvement agenda for HCC screening, diagnosis, and treatment.

Evaluation of patients treated with direct-acting anti-viral therapy for chronic hepatitis C and their risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND & AIM

To evaluate the risk of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Hong Kong, as it has not been studied before in this locality.

METHODS

Three hundred thirty-three consecutive chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs from two hospitals over the past 6 years were identified. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate cumulative HCC incidence. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with HCC development.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 23.4 months after DAA started, 15 (5.4%, 95% CI 3.3-8.7%) out of 279 total included patients developed HCC. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 98.9%. The 1-year cumulative incidence for de-novo HCC and HCC recurrence were 0.8 and 30.9%, respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). The 1-year cumulative HCC incidence for patients without and with cirrhosis were 0.7 and 5.1%, respectively (log-rank test p = 0.036). Univariate analysis showed that significant factors associated with HCC after DAA were: history of treated HCC, cirrhosis, evidence of portal hypertension, higher AFP at the start or end of DAA therapy, higher bilirubin, lower platelets, lower albumin, and older age. From receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level of AFP for predicting HCC was 10.5 ng/mL at the start and 5.6 ng/mL at the end of DAA therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of early HCC recurrence remains high despite achieving SVR following DAA therapy, whereas the risk of early de-novo HCC occurence is low. AFP levels, both at the start and end of DAA therapy, can be useful in stratifying risks of HCC development.

Undiagnosed Cirrhosis and Hepatic Encephalopathy in a National Cohort of Veterans With Dementia

Importance

Dementia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) are challenging to distinguish clinically. Undiagnosed cirrhosis in a patient with dementia can lead to missed opportunities to treat HE.

Objective

To examine the prevalence and risk factors of undiagnosed cirrhosis and therefore possible HE in veterans with dementia.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2009 and 2019 using data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and 2 separate validation cohorts from the Richmond Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Data analysis was conducted from May 20 to October 15, 2023. Participants included 177 422 US veterans with a diagnosis of dementia at 2 or more clinic visits, no prior diagnosis of cirrhosis, and with sufficient laboratory test results to calculate the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score.

Exposures

Demographic and clinical characteristics.

Main Outcomes and Measures

An FIB-4 score (>2.67 suggestive of advanced fibrosis and >3.25 suggestive of cirrhosis), capped at age 65 years even for those above this cutoff who were included in the analysis.

Results

Among 177 422 veterans (97.1% men; 80.7% White; mean (SD) age, 78.35 [10.97] years) 5.3% (n = 9373) had an FIB-4 score greater than 3.25 and 10.3% (n = 18 390) had an FIB-4 score greater than 2.67. In multivariable logistic regression models, FIB-4 greater than 3.25 was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09), male gender (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.26-1.61), congestive heart failure (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.43-1.54), viral hepatitis (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.66-1.91), Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.44-1.68), and chronic kidney disease (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17), and inversely associated with White race (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.85), diabetes (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84), hyperlipidemia (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89), stroke (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.91), tobacco use disorder (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.87), and rural residence (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97). Similar findings were associated with the FIB-4 greater than 2.67 threshold. These codes were associated with cirrhosis on local validation. A local validation cohort of patients with dementia showed a similar percentage of high FIB-4 scores (4.4%-11.2%).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that clinicians encountering patients with dementia should be encouraged to screen for cirrhosis using the FIB-4 score to uncover reversible factors associated with cognitive impairment, such as HE, to enhance outcomes.

Outcomes of Colectomy in United States Veterans With Cirrhosis: Predicting Outcomes Using Nomogram

INTRODUCTION

With growing incidence of liver cirrhosis worldwide, there is more need for a risk assessment tool to aid in perioperative management of cirrhotic patients undergoing colorectal procedures. We aim to assess the association of open (OC) versus laparoscopic (LC) approach with colorectal procedures' outcomes and develop an easy-to-use nomogram to predict outcomes.

METHODS

We analyzed the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program to identify all patients with cirrhosis and ascites who underwent colorectal procedures from 2008 to 2015. Model for End-stage Liver Disease score was calculated as well as five-items modified frailty index. The chi-square test was utilized to analyze categorical variables. Two-sided unpaired Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U-test were used for numerical variables as appropriate. Multivariate logistic regression adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and other preoperative factors was used to analyze postoperative outcomes. A predictive nomogram was constructed and internally validated.

RESULTS

A total of 731 patients were identified. Overall, complications occurred in 48.2% of patients, and 30-d mortality was 24.8%, with 57.5% were performed emergently. Malignant neoplasm was the most common indication (25.4%). LC was performed in 22.4%, with shorter operative time, less blood transfusions, shorter length of stay, and lower morbidity compared to OC. Overall, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score was an independent factor of mortality, while laparoscopic approach had a protective effect on morbidity. An easy-to-use nomogram was generated for morbidity and 30-d mortality with calculated area under cure of 74.5% and 77.9%, respectively, indicating reliability.

CONCLUSIONS

Although colectomy is a high-risk operation in cirrhotic veterans, LC may have favorable outcomes than OC in selected patients. An easy-to-use nomogram to predict morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing colectomy is proposed.

Incorporation of quantitative imaging data using artificial intelligence improves risk prediction in veterans with liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Utilization of electronic health records data to derive predictive indexes such as the electronic Child-Turcotte-Pugh (eCTP) Score can have significant utility in health care delivery. Within the records, CT scans contain phenotypic data which have significant prognostic value. However, data extractions have not traditionally been applied to imaging data. In this study, we used artificial intelligence to automate biomarker extraction from CT scans and examined the value of these features in improving risk prediction in patients with liver disease.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a regional liver disease cohort from the Veterans Health System, we retrieved administrative, laboratory, and clinical data for Veterans who had CT scans performed for any clinical indication between 2008 and 2014. Imaging biomarkers were automatically derived using the analytic morphomics platform. In all, 4614 patients were included. We found that the eCTP Score had a Concordance index of 0.64 for the prediction of overall mortality while the imaging-based model alone or with eCTP Score performed significantly better [Concordance index of 0.72 and 0.73 ( p <0.001)]. For the subset of patients without hepatic decompensation at baseline (n=4452), the Concordance index for predicting future decompensation was 0.67, 0.79, and 0.80 for eCTP Score, imaging alone, or combined, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof of concept demonstrates that the potential of utilizing automated extraction of imaging features within CT scans either alone or in conjunction with classic health data can improve risk prediction in patients with chronic liver disease.

HCC is associated with diabetes and longitudinal blood glucose control in a national cohort with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is associated with HCC; however, the impact of longitudinal blood glucose (BG) control on HCC risk in cirrhosis is not well known. We investigated this knowledge gap in a cohort of United States Veterans with cirrhosis from 2015 to 2021.

METHODS

We used repeated hemoglobin A1c measurements to categorize follow-up time according to BG control (defined as hemoglobin A1c < 7%) state over time: uncontrolled, nonsustained control (≤2 y), or sustained control (>2 y). We performed a sensitivity analysis using hemoglobin A1c < 8% to define BG control. We used Fine and Gray Cox proportional hazards regression with death and transplant as competing events to compare rates of incident HCC.

RESULTS

Our study included 81,907 individuals, 56.2% of whom had diabetes at baseline. There were 8,002 incident HCCs. The rate of HCC was 18% higher in diabetes (95% CI: 13% - 24%), and the relative increase in the rate of HCC varied by etiology of cirrhosis from nonsignificant (HCV) to an increase of 120% (HBV). Uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control was associated with 1.80 (95% CI: 1.70-1.91) and 2.34 (95% CI: 2.21-2.48) times the rate of HCC compared to sustained BG control, respectively. Using Hgb A1c < 8% to define BG control, HCC rates in uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control were 2.43 (2.28-2.58) and 2.23 (2.11-2.36) times that observed in sustained BG control.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between diabetes and HCC in cirrhosis vary according to the longitudinal BG control state. Inadequate BG control is consistently associated with a higher risk of HCC, and long-term BG control should be considered in comprehensive cirrhosis care.

Development and validation of a case definition to estimate the prevalence and incidence of cirrhosis in pan-Canadian primary care databases

Aims

To develop and validate case definitions to identify patients with cirrhosis and alcohol-related cirrhosis using primary care electronic medical records (EMRs) and to estimate cirrhosis prevalence and incidence in pan-Canadian primary care databases, between 2011 and 2019.

Methods

A total of 689,301 adult patients were included with ≥1 visit to a primary care provider within the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Study Network between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. A subsample of 17,440 patients was used to validate the case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values were calculated with their 95% CIs and then determined the population-level prevalence and incidence trends with the most accurate case definition.

Results

The most accurate case definition included: ≥1 health condition, billing, or encounter diagnosis for International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 571.2, 571.5, 789.59, or 571. Sensitivity (84.6; 95% CI 83.1%-86.%), specificity (99.3; 95% CI 99.1%-99.4%), positive predictive values (94.8; 95% CI 93.9%-95.7%), and negative predictive values (97.5; 95% CI 97.3%-97.7%). Application of this definition to the overall population resulted in a crude prevalence estimate of (0.46%; 95% CI 0.45%-0.48%). Annual incidence of patients with a clinical diagnosis of cirrhosis nearly doubled between 2011 (0.05%; 95% CI 0.04%-0.06%) and 2019 to (0.09%; 95% CI 0.08%-0.09%).

Conclusions

The EMR-based case definition accurately captured patients diagnosed with cirrhosis in primary care. Future work to characterize patients with cirrhosis and their primary care experiences can support improvements in identification and management in primary care settings.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Highlighting the Use of the Hepatoprotective Nutritional Supplements among Patients with Chronic Diseases

Cross-sectional studies, while not considered glamorous endeavors, are firmly anchored in data and statistics, providing essential insights about public health. The aim of the study is to see the frequency of hepatoprotective (HP) nutritional supplement consumption among patients with chronic diseases (other than chronic liver disorders) and analyzes the habits related to the consumption of nutritional supplements among these patients. A total of 954 patients, seeking medical prescriptions for chronic diseases under various payment arrangements (compensated, gratuity, or full payment) were carefully selected over a 12-month period from four private pharmaceutical facilities. We examined the frequency of HP consumption in relation with a number of prescribed medications for chronic conditions. All these patients were invited to complete a questionnaire about their supplement consumption habits and were provided the option to participate in a nutritional status assessment. One hundred ninety-five patients consented to participate in the survey, and 65 patients agreed to undergo a nutritional status evaluation. Of the 954 patients, 77.2% incorporate HP into their regimen. The most frequent consumption (83.33%) was recorded in a group with seven drugs, followed by a group with three drugs (82.84%). Women have a higher usage rate of HP (80.58%; 444 from 551) compared to men (62.60%; 293 from 383), and most of the patients (59.5%) used extracts of Silybum marianum L. In the survey, 64.61% of participants were using supplements, with most (59.52%) consuming HP. Only 32.54% of patients rely on recommendations from healthcare professionals. Of the patients who use supplements, 55.56% reported improvements in their health status. Furthermore, patients who integrate supplements into their daily routine tend to achieve better overall nutritional status.

Is Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Effective?

Hepatocellular carcinoma occurs primarily in patients with cirrhosis and is an important cause of cancer death. Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma every 6 months with ultrasound with or without alpha fetoprotein measurement is recommended by multiple professional societies. There are no randomized controlled trials in patients with cirrhosis documenting the effectiveness of screening in improving survival, however, making screening controversial. There are multiple retrospective and cohort studies, as well as pooled analyses that do show an association of screening with earlier stage at diagnosis, increased receipt of curative intent treatment, and improved overall survival. Though these studies are limited by lead and length time biases, they make compelling arguments in favor of screening. Additional research into barriers to receiving screening, barriers to receiving treatment, and the optimal screening modalities given the shift of cirrhosis etiology in the United States are needed to further improve patient outcomes.

Healthcare affordability and effects on mortality among adults with liver disease from 2004 to 2018 in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver disease is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, likely incurring financial distress (i.e. healthcare affordability and accessibility issues), although long-term national-level data are limited.

METHODS

Using the National Health Interview Survey from 2004 to 2018, we categorised adults based on report of liver disease and other chronic conditions linked to mortality data from the National Death Index. We estimated age-adjusted proportions of adults reporting healthcare affordability and accessibility issues. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression were used to assess the association of liver disease with financial distress and financial distress with all-cause mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Among adults with liver disease (n = 19,407) vs. those without liver disease (n = 996,352), those with cancer history (n = 37,225), those with emphysema (n = 7,937), and those with coronary artery disease (n = 21,510), the age-adjusted proportion reporting healthcare affordability issues for medical services was 29.9% (95% CI 29.7-30.1%) vs. 18.1% (95% CI 18.0-18.3%), 26.5% (95% CI 26.3-26.7%), 42.2% (95% CI 42.1-42.4%), and 31.6% (31.5-31.8%), respectively, and for medications: 15.5% (95% CI 15.4-15.6%) vs. 8.2% (95% CI 8.1-8.3%), 14.8% (95% CI 14.7-14.9%), 26.1% (95% CI 26.0-26.2%), and 20.6% (95% CI 20.5-20.7%), respectively. In multivariable analysis, liver disease (vs. without liver disease, vs. cancer history, vs. emphysema, and vs. coronary artery disease) was associated with inability to afford medical services (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.84, 95% CI 1.77-1.92; aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.25-1.40; aOR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.98; and aOR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.19, respectively) and medications (aOR 1.92, 95% CI 1.82-2.03; aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.33; aOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.90; and aOR 0.94, 95% CI 0.86-1.02, respectively), delays in medical care (aOR 1.77, 95% CI 1.69-1.87; aOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22; aOR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.97; and aOR 1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.14, respectively), and not receiving the needed medical care (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.76-1.96; aOR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.26; aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.99; aOR 1.06, 95% CI 0.96-1.16, respectively). In multivariable analysis, among adults with liver disease, financial distress (vs. without financial distress) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with liver disease face greater financial distress than adults without liver disease and adults with cancer history. Financial distress is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality among adults with liver disease. Interventions to improve healthcare affordability should be prioritised in this population.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Adults with liver disease use many medical services, but long-term national studies regarding the financial repercussions and the effects on mortality for such patients are lacking. This study shows that adults with liver disease are more likely to face issues affording medical services and prescription medication, experience delays in medical care, and needing but not obtaining medical care owing to cost, compared with adults without liver disease, adults with cancer history, are equally likely as adults with coronary artery disease, and less likely than adults with emphysema-patients with liver disease who face these issues are at increased risk of death. This study provides the impetus for medical providers and policymakers to prioritise interventions to improve healthcare affordability for adults with liver disease.

Prevalence and dynamics of NAFLD-associated fibrosis in people living with HIV in Vienna from first presentation to last follow-up

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is frequent in people living with HIV (PLWH) and may be aggravated by metabolic comorbidities and antiretroviral therapy (ART)-associated adverse effects.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed epidemiological, clinical and laboratory parameters and ART regimens at HIV diagnosis (BL) and at last follow-up (FU) in 1458 PLWH without viral hepatitis coinfection attending our HIV clinic in 2014-2016. Fibrosis was non-invasively assessed by the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS).

RESULTS

The median age of subjects was 37.8 years, 77.4% were male and 67.2% on ART, median CD4+ count was 356.0 cells/µL. At BL, 503 (34.5%) and 20 (1.4%) PLWH had dyslipidemia and diabetes, respectively. According to the NFS 16 (1.3%) showed advanced fibrosis (NFS ≥ 0.676), among which 1 (6.3%) had diabetes, 7 (43.8%) had dyslipidemia, and 5 (31.3%) were on HIV-protease inhibitors (PI). In addition, 191(15.1%) had intermediate NFS results, while fibrosis was ruled out (NFS ≤ 1.455) in 1065 (83.7%) PLWH. After a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 590 (42.8%) had dyslipidemia and 61 (4.4%) had diabetes. Also, 21 (1.6%) showed advanced fibrosis, of which 10 (47.6%) had diabetes, 4 (19.0%) had dyslipidemia, and 9 (42.9%) were on PI-based ART, 223 (17.4%) had intermediate NFS results, while 1039 (81.0%) showed no fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

During FU, advanced NAFLD fibrosis occurred in 1.3-1.6% of PLWH. Dyslipidemia, diabetes, and PI-based ART were associated with advanced NAFLD fibrosis. Prospective investigations of NAFLD severity and risk factors in PLWH are warranted.

Associations of Race and Ethnicity with Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Decompensation, and Mortality in US Veterans with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Among patients with cirrhosis, it remains unclear whether there are racial/ethnic differences in cirrhosis complications and mortality. We examined the associations between race/ethnicity and risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis decompensation, and all-cause mortality overall and by cirrhosis etiology.

METHODS

US Veterans diagnosed with cirrhosis from 2001 to 2014 (n = 120,992), due to hepatitis C virus (HCV; n = 55,814), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD; n = 36,323), hepatitis B virus (HBV; n = 1,972), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; n = 17,789), or other (n = 9,094), were followed through 2020 for incident HCC (n = 10,242), cirrhosis decompensation (n = 27,887), and mortality (n = 81,441). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Compared with non-Hispanic White patients, Hispanic patients had higher risk for HCC overall (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.24-1.41) and by cirrhosis etiology, particularly for ALD- (aHR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.42-1.87) and NAFLD-cirrhosis (aHR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.41-2.20), whereas non-Hispanic Black patients had lower HCC risk in ALD- (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63-0.98) and NAFLD-cirrhosis (aHR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.89). Asian patients had higher HCC risk (aHR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.29-2.23), driven by HCV- and HBV-cirrhosis. Non-Hispanic Black patients had lower risk for cirrhosis decompensation overall (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.74) and by cirrhosis etiology. There was lower risk for mortality among all other racial/ethnic groups compared with non-Hispanic White patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Race/ethnicity is an important predictor for risk of developing HCC, decompensation, and mortality.

IMPACT

Future research should examine factors underlying these racial/ethnic differences to inform prevention, screening, and treatment for patients with cirrhosis.

Global Burden of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, 1990 to 2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver diseases worldwide. We provided a comprehensive description regarding the disease burden of NAFLD in 204 countries and territories.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reported the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to NAFLD in the Global Burden of Disease database by sex, age, specific causes, and regions. Estimated annual percentage change was applied to describe the changing trends.

RESULTS

Globally, the NAFLD-related deaths and DALYs in 2019 were 0.17 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 0.13 to 0.21] and 4.42 million (95% UI: 3.35 to 5.67), increased by 80.2% and 62.9% compared with 1990, respectively. The overall age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs (ASMR and ASDR) showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, the estimated annual percentage change were -0.67 (95% confidence interval: -0.76, -0.57) and -0.82 (95% confidence interval: -0.93, -0.7), respectively. NAFLD-related deaths due to cirrhosis and liver cancer increased by 76.7% and 95.1% between 1990 and 2019. The ASMR and ASDR were the highest in the middle and low sociodemographical index regions in 2019, respectively. Of the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, High-income North America, and Australasia experienced an increase in both ASMR and ASDR.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD imposes heavy disease burden on humankind worldwide, especially in countries with low-to-middle sociodemographical index level. More potent measures are urgently needed in regions with rising age-standardized rate to forestall the increase of NAFLD disease burden.

Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis are Associated with Worse Outcomes Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background and aims

Studies evaluating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on chronic liver disease (CLD) are limited and have focused mostly on hospitalized patients or those with cirrhosis. We aim to evaluate the impact of underlying CLD on patient outcomes following COVID-19 using a one of the largest COVID-19+CLD cohorts to date.

Methods

Data from the COVID-19 Research Database (https://covid19researchdatabase.org) were evaluated from April 1, 2020, to August 31, 2021, to determine whether concurrent CLD was associated with worse outcomes within 30 day of COVID-19 diagnosis, including need for hospitalization, pneumonia, severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, and multiorgan failure. Among patients with COVID-19+CLD, risks of liver decompensation and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) were evaluated, stratified by presence of cirrhosis. Adjusted multivariate logistic regression models evaluated the impact of CLD on COVID-19 outcomes.

Results

In total, 1,208,905 unique patients with COVID-19 were identified; 44,008 (3.6%) had concurrent CLD, among which 6515 (14.8%) had cirrhosis. Compared to patients without CLD, COVID-19+CLD patients were significantly more likely to require hospitalization (aOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.61-1.69), develop pneumonia (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 1.08-1.14), severe pneumonia (aOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.62-1.86), respiratory failure (aOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10-1.17), and multiorgan failure (aOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.72-1.97), P < 0.0001 for all. Among COVID-19+CLD patients, underlying cirrhosis was associated with even higher risk of these poor outcomes, and higher risk of acute liver decompensation or ACLF.

Conclusions

Among one of the largest studies to date evaluating patients with COVID-19 and CLD, underlying CLD is associated with significantly greater risk of poor outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly among cirrhotic patients.

Recent Advances in Anticancer Activity of Novel Plant Extracts and Compounds from Curcuma longa in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Among all forms of cancers, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide. There are several treatment options for HCC ranging from loco-regional therapy to surgical treatment. Yet, there is high morbidity and mortality. Recent research focus has shifted towards more effective and less toxic cancer treatment options. Curcumin, the active ingredient in the Curcuma longa plant, has gained widespread attention in recent years because of its multifunctional properties as an antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, and anticancer agent.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Embase and Google Scholar was performed for studies reporting incidence of HCC, risk factors associated with cirrhosis and experimental use of curcumin as an anti-cancer agent.

RESULTS

This review exclusively encompasses the anti-cancer properties of curcumin in HCC globally and it's postulated molecular targets of curcumin when used against liver cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

This review is concluded by presenting the current challenges and future perspectives of novel plant extracts derived from C. longa and the treatment options against cancers.

Macrophage in liver Fibrosis: Identities and mechanisms

Liver fibrosis is a chronic disease characterized by the deposition of extracellular matrix and continuous loss of tissues that perform liver functions. Macrophages are crucial modulators of innate immunity and play important roles in liver fibrogenesis. Macrophages comprise heterogeneous subpopulations that exhibit different cellular functions. Understanding the identity and function of these cells is essential for understanding the mechanisms of liver fibrogenesis. According to different definitions, liver macrophages are divided into M1/M2 macrophages or monocyte-derived macrophages/Kupffer cells. Classic M1/M2 phenotyping corresponds to pro- or anti-inflammatory effects, and, therefore, influences the degree of fibrosis in later phases. In contrast, the origin of the macrophages is closely associated with their replenishment and activation during liver fibrosis. These two classifications of macrophages depict the function and dynamics of liver-infiltrating macrophages. However, neither description properly elucidates the positive or negative role of macrophages in liver fibrosis. Critical tissue cells mediating liver fibrosis include hepatic stellate cells and hepatic fibroblasts, with hepatic stellate cells being of particular interest because of their close association with macrophages in liver fibrosis. However, the molecular biological descriptions of macrophages are inconsistent between mice and humans, warranting further investigations. In liver fibrosis, macrophages can secrete various pro-fibrotic cytokines, such as TGF-β, Galectin-3 and interleukins (ILs), and fibrosis-inhibiting cytokines, such as IL10. These different secretions may be associated with the specific identity and spatiotemporal characteristics of macrophages. Furthermore, during fibrosis dissipation, macrophages may degrade extracellular matrix by secreting matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). Notably, using macrophages as therapeutic targets in liver fibrosis has been explored. The current therapeutic approaches for liver fibrosis can by categorized as follows: treatment with macrophage-related molecules and macrophage infusion therapy. Although there have been limited studies, macrophages have shown reliable potential for liver fibrosis treatment. In this review, we focu on the identity and function of macrophages and their relationship to the progression and regression of liver fibrosis.

Diagnosis and Management of Cirrhosis and Its Complications: A Review

Importance

Cirrhosis affects approximately 2.2 million adults in the US. From 2010 to 2021, the annual age-adjusted mortality of cirrhosis increased from 14.9 per 100 000 to 21.9 per 100 000 people.

Observations

The most common causes of cirrhosis in the US, which can overlap, include alcohol use disorder (approximately 45% of all cases of cirrhosis), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (26%), and hepatitis C (41%). Patients with cirrhosis experience symptoms including muscle cramps (approximately 64% prevalence), pruritus (39%), poor-quality sleep (63%), and sexual dysfunction (53%). Cirrhosis can be diagnosed by liver biopsy but may also be diagnosed noninvasively. Elastography, a noninvasive assessment of liver stiffness measured in kilopascals, can typically confirm cirrhosis at levels of 15 kPa or greater. Approximately 40% of people with cirrhosis are diagnosed when they present with complications such as hepatic encephalopathy or ascites. The median survival time following onset of hepatic encephalopathy and ascites is 0.92 and 1.1 years, respectively. Among people with ascites, the annual incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis is 11% and of hepatorenal syndrome is 8%; the latter is associated with a median survival of less than 2 weeks. Approximately 1% to 4% of patients with cirrhosis develop hepatocellular carcinoma each year, which is associated with a 5-year survival of approximately 20%. In a 3-year randomized clinical trial of 201 patients with portal hypertension, nonselective β-blockers (carvedilol or propranolol) reduced the risk of decompensation or death compared with placebo (16% vs 27%). Compared with sequential initiation, combination aldosterone antagonist and loop diuretics were more likely to resolve ascites (76% vs 56%) with lower rates of hyperkalemia (4% vs 18%). In meta-analyses of randomized trials, lactulose was associated with reduced mortality relative to placebo (8.5% vs 14%) in randomized trials involving 705 patients and reduced risk of recurrent overt hepatic encephalopathy (25.5% vs 46.8%) in randomized trials involving 1415 patients. In a randomized clinical trial of 300 patients, terlipressin improved the rate of reversal of hepatorenal syndrome from 39% to 18%. Trials addressing symptoms of cirrhosis have demonstrated efficacy for hydroxyzine in improving sleep dysfunction, pickle brine and taurine for reducing muscle cramps, and tadalafil for improving sexual dysfunction in men.

Conclusions and Relevance

Approximately 2.2 million US adults have cirrhosis. Many symptoms, such as muscle cramps, poor-quality sleep, pruritus, and sexual dysfunction, are common and treatable. First-line therapies include carvedilol or propranolol to prevent variceal bleeding, lactulose for hepatic encephalopathy, combination aldosterone antagonists and loop diuretics for ascites, and terlipressin for hepatorenal syndrome.

Medications for alcohol use disorder improve survival in patients with hazardous drinking and alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are highly effective in achieving and maintaining abstinence in patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Our aim was to evaluate the effect of MAUD on all-cause mortality in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and active alcohol use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and high-risk alcohol use disorder in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) database. Propensity score matching for exposure to MAUD (acamprosate or naltrexone) within a year after cirrhosis diagnosis was performed to account for potential confounders, and the association between MAUD and all-cause mortality was subsequently evaluated using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 9131 patients were included, of whom 886 (9.7%) were exposed to MAUD (naltrexone: 520, acamprosate: 307, both medications: 59). The duration of MAUD exposure was >3 months in 345 patients (39%). The strongest positive predictor of MAUD prescription was an inpatient diagnosis code for AUD, followed by a concurrent diagnosis of depression; the strongest negative predictor was a history of cirrhosis decompensation. After propensity score matching (866 patients in each group) with excellent covariate balance (absolute standardized mean differences <0.1), MAUD exposure was associated with improved survival, with an HR of 0.80 relative to no MAUD exposure (95% CI: 0.67-0.97, p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

MAUD are underutilized in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis with high-risk alcohol use behavior but are associated with improved survival after adjustment for confounders such as the severity of liver disease, age, and engagement in the healthcare system.

Assessing the risk of surgery in patients with cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased perioperative risk relative to patients without cirrhosis. This is related to numerous cirrhosis-specific factors, including severity of liver disease, impaired synthetic function, sarcopenia and malnutrition, and portal hypertension, among others. Nonhepatic comorbidities and surgery-related factors further modify the surgical risk, adding to the complexity of the preoperative assessment. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiological contributors to surgical risk in cirrhosis, key elements of the preoperative risk assessment, and application of risk prediction tools including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Mayo Risk Score, and the VOCAL-Penn Score. We also detail the limitations of current approaches to risk assessment and highlight areas for future research.

Type of Infection Is Associated with Prognosis in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A National Veterans Health Administration Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome in patients with cirrhosis with high short-term mortality. Infection is a frequent precipitant of ACLF; however, it is unclear if prognosis varies by difference infectious sources. To address this knowledge gap, we utilized a large national database of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2016. First ACLF hospitalizations were identified and infections were classified using validated algorithms, categorized as bacteremia, fungal, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), pyelonephritis/urinary tract infection, or skin and soft tissue/musculoskeletal infection (SST/MSK). Inverse probability treatment weighing for infection-associated ACLF followed by multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection type and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total 22,589 ACLF hospitalizations were included, 3998 (17.7%) of which had ACLF grade 3. Infection was associated with 12,405 (54.9%) of ACLF hospitalizations. In regression models, SBP was associated with a 1.79-fold increased odds of 90-day mortality vs. no infection (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-2.02, p < 0.001), whereas SST/MSK infections had a lower relative odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.42-0.53, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between infection category and ACLF grade on the outcome of 90-day mortality (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of infection on short-term mortality in ACLF varies depending on the source of infection. This has relevance for ACLF prognostication and challenges previous notions that bacterial infection invariably worsens prognosis among all patients with ACLF.

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Scores in Cirrhosis, Using Administrative Datasets

Background

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts disease severity and mortality in cirrhosis. To improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative databases lacking laboratory data, we aimed to develop and externally validate claims-based MELD prediction models, using claims data linked to electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

We included adults with established cirrhosis in two Medicare-linked EHR networks (training and internal validation; 2007-2017), and a Medicaid-linked EHR network (external validation; 2000-2014). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 5-fold cross-validation, we selected among 146 investigator-specified variables to develop models for predicting continuous MELD and relevant MELD categories (MELD<10, MELD≥15 and MELD≥20), with observed MELD calculated from laboratory data. Regression coefficients for each model were applied to the validation sets to predict patient-level MELD and assess model performance.

Results

We identified 4501 patients in the Medicare training set (mean age 75.1 years, 18.5% female, mean MELD=13.0), and 2435 patients in the Medicare validation set (mean age: 74.3 years, 31.7% female, mean MELD=12.3). Our final model for predicting continuous MELD included 112 variables, explaining 58% of observed MELD variability; in the Medicare validation set, the area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for MELD<10 and MELD≥15 were 0.84 and 0.90, respectively; the AUC for the model predicting MELD≥20 (using 27 variables) was 0.93. Overall, these models correctly classified 77% of patients with MELD<10 (95% CI=0.75-0.78), 85% of patients with MELD≥15 (95% CI=0.84-0.87), and 87% of patients with MELD≥20 (95% CI=0.86-0.88). Results were consistent in the external validation set (n=2240).

Conclusion

Our MELD prediction tools can be used to improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative datasets lacking laboratory data.

Dementia Frequently Coexists With Hepatic Encephalopathy but Not Other Cirrhosis Complications in US Veterans

INTRODUCTION

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common decompensating event in patients with cirrhosis. Because of the aging population of patients with cirrhosis, differentiating HE from nonhepatic etiologies of cognitive impairment, such as dementia, is increasingly important.

METHODS

Veterans with cirrhosis were identified via International Classification of Diseases -10 codes between October 1, 2019, and September 30, 2021, using the VA Corporate Data Warehouse. Baseline characteristics were compared between cohorts based on the presence vs absence of dementia. Factors associated with having a diagnosis of dementia were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for demographics, comorbid illnesses, cirrhosis etiology, and cirrhosis complications.

RESULTS

A total of 71,552 veterans with cirrhosis were identified, of which, 5,647 (7.89%) veterans had a diagnosis of dementia. Veterans with dementia were older, more frequently White, urban located, and diagnosed with alcohol-related cirrhosis, metabolic syndrome, brain trauma, and cerebrovascular disease more frequently. On multivariable analysis, the presence of any decompensating event was associated with dementia. Multivariable analysis of individual decompensating events revealed HE to be associated with a dementia diagnosis, but not ascites, independent of other risk factors analyzed.

DISCUSSION

Dementia is commonly diagnosed in patients with cirrhosis and correlates with a diagnosis of HE, independent of alcohol use, brain injury, age, and other metabolic risk factors. Dementia did not correlate with other decompensating events. Increased awareness of the overlap between dementia and HE, as well as reliable diagnostic and treatment strategies, is needed for the aging population of veterans with cirrhosis.

Alcohol use disorder in community management of chronic liver diseases

Rising rates of alcohol use disorder (AUD) combined with increases in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and other liver disease have resulted in the need to develop alcohol management strategies at all levels of patient care. For those with pre-existing liver disease, whether ALD or others, attention to alcohol use treatment and abstinence becomes critical to avoiding worsening liver-related consequences. Modalities to help patients reduce or stop alcohol include screening/brief intervention/referral to treatment, various therapeutic modalities including cognitive behavioral therapy, motivational enhancement therapy and 12-step facilitation, and alcohol relapse prevention medications. Harm reduction approaches versus total abstinence may be considered, but for those with existing ALD, particularly advanced ALD (cirrhosis or acute alcoholic hepatitis), total abstinence from alcohol is the recommendation, given clear data that ongoing alcohol use worsens mortality and liver-related morbidity. For certain populations, alcohol cessation is even more critically important. For those with hepatitis C or NAFLD, alcohol use accelerates negative liver-related outcomes. In women, alcohol use accelerates liver damage and results in worsened liver-related mortality. Efforts to integrate AUD and liver disease care are urgently needed and can occur at several levels, with establishment of multidisciplinary ALD clinics for fully integrated co-management as an important goal.

Prescribing Trends of Oral Anticoagulants in US Patients With Cirrhosis and Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Background Many patients with cirrhosis have concurrent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data are lacking regarding recent oral anticoagulant (OAC) usage trends among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF. Methods and Results Using MarketScan claims data (2012-2019), we identified patients with cirrhosis and NVAF eligible for OACs (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 [men] or ≥3 [women]). We calculated the yearly proportion of patients prescribed a direct OAC (DOAC), warfarin, or no OAC. We stratified by high-risk features (decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease, or end-stage renal disease). Among 32 487 patients (mean age=71.6 years, 38.5% women, 15.1% with decompensated cirrhosis, mean CHA2DS2-VASc=4.2), 44.6% used OACs within 180 days of NVAF diagnosis, including DOACs (20.2%) or warfarin (24.4%). Compared with OAC nonusers, OAC users were less likely to have decompensated cirrhosis (18.6% versus 10.7%), thrombocytopenia (19.5% versus 12.5%), or chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease (15.5% versus 14.0%). Between 2012 and 2019, warfarin use decreased by 21.0% (32.0% to 11.0%), whereas DOAC use increased by 30.6% (7.4% to 38.0%), and among all DOACs between 2012 and 2019, apixaban was the most commonly prescribed (46.1%). Warfarin use decreased and DOAC use increased in all subgroups, including in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease, and across CHA2DS2-VASc categories. Among OAC users (2012-2019), DOAC use increased by 58.9% (18.7% to 77.6%). Among DOAC users, the greatest proportional increase was with apixaban (61.2%; P<0.001). Conclusions Among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF, DOAC use has increased substantially and surpassed warfarin, including in decompensated cirrhosis. Nevertheless, >55% of patients remain untreated, underscoring the need for clearer treatment guidance.

The Liverpool alcohol-related liver disease algorithm identifies twice as many emergency admissions compared to standard methods when applied to Hospital Episode Statistics for England

BACKGROUND

Emergency admissions in England for alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) have increased steadily for decades. Statistics based on administrative data typically focus on the ArLD-specific code as the primary diagnosis and are therefore at risk of excluding ArLD admissions defined by other coding combinations.

AIM

To deploy the Liverpool ArLD Algorithm (LAA), which accounts for alternative coding patterns (e.g., ArLD secondary diagnosis with alcohol/liver-related primary diagnosis), to national and local datasets in the context of studying trends in ArLD admissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We applied the standard approach and LAA to Hospital Episode Statistics for England (2013-21). The algorithm was also deployed at 28 hospitals to discharge coding for emergency admissions during a common 7-day period in 2019 and 2020, in which eligible patient records were reviewed manually to verify the diagnosis and extract data.

RESULTS

Nationally, LAA identified approximately 100% more monthly emergency admissions from 2013 to 2021 than the standard method. The annual number of ArLD-specific admissions increased by 30.4%. Of 39,667 admissions in 2020/21, only 19,949 were identified with standard approach, an estimated admission cost of £70 million in under-recorded cases. Within 28 local hospital datasets, 233 admissions were identified using the standard approach and a further 250 locally verified cases using the LAA (107% uplift). There was an 18% absolute increase in ArLD admissions in the seven-day evaluation period in 2020 versus 2019. There were no differences in disease severity or mortality, or in the proportion of admissions with decompensation of cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis.

CONCLUSIONS

The LAA can be applied successfully to local and national datasets. It consistently identifies approximately 100% more cases than the standard coding approach. The algorithm has revealed the true extent of ArLD admissions. The pandemic has compounded a long-term rise in ArLD admissions and mortality.

Plants-based medicine implication in the evolution of chronic liver diseases

Hepatic disorders are considered major health problems, due to their high incidence, increased risk of chronicling or death and the costs involved in therapies. A large number of patients with chronic liver diseases use herbal medicines and dietary supplements in parallel with allopathic treatment. The current review provides a thorough analysis of the studies conducted on the most important species of medicinal plants used in this disease, bioactive compounds and on the activity of herbal medicines in the evolution of chronic liver diseases. However, a negative aspect is that there is frequently a lack of comprehensive data on the progression of the illness and the living standards of patients who are affected when evaluating the effects of these phytocomponents on the evolution of chronic liver disease, the patients' health, and their quality of life. It is essential to take this impairment into account when evaluating the long-term effects of herbal treatments on the health of individuals who suffer from liver illness. Bioactive phytocomponents may be a suitable source for the development of novel medications due to the correlation between traditional uses and medical advances. Additional high-quality preclinical examinations utilizing cutting-edge approaches are needed to assess safety and effectiveness and to detect, categorize, and standardize the active substances and their formulations for the most suitable therapeutic management of liver illnesses.

Nonselective beta blockers, hepatic decompensation, and mortality in cirrhosis: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the effectiveness of nonselective beta blockers (NSBBs) in preventing hepatic decompensation in routine clinical settings. We investigated whether NSBBs are associated with hepatic decompensation or liver-related mortality in a national cohort of veterans with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A cirrhosis with no prior decompensations.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In an active comparator, new user (ACNU) design, we created a cohort of new users of carvedilol ( n = 123) versus new users of selective beta blockers (SBBs) ( n = 561) and followed patients for up to 3 years. An inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) approach balanced demographic and clinical confounders. The primary analysis simulated intention-to-treat ("pseudo-ITT") with IPTW-adjusted Cox models; secondary analyses were pseudo-as-treated, and both were adjusted for baseline and time-updating drug confounders. Subgroup analyses evaluated NSBB effects by HCV viremia status, CTP class, platelet count, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) etiology, and age. In pseudo-ITT analyses of carvedilol versus SBBs, carvedilol was associated with a lower hazard of any hepatic decompensation (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.83) and the composite outcome of hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.76). Results were similar in pseudo-as-treated analyses (hepatic decompensation: HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.94; composite outcome: HR 0.62, 95% 0.38-1.01). In subgroup analyses, carvedilol was associated with lower hazard of primary outcomes in the absence of HCV viremia, higher CTP class and platelet count, younger age, and ALD etiology.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an ongoing need to noninvasively identify patients who may benefit from NSBBs for the prevention of hepatic decompensation.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC.

RESULTS

MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Molecular and Clinical Features of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with HBV-HDV Infection

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection affects more than 10 million people worldwide, with an estimated prevalence of nearly 4.5% among HBsAg-positive individuals. Epidemiological studies have shown a significant increase in the prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HDV infection compared to those with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) mono-infection. Despite the clinical findings, data on molecular oncogenic mechanisms are limited and fragmentary. Moreover, the role of HDV in promoting the development of HCC has so far been controversial, because it is difficult to weigh the respective contributions of the two viruses. In this review, we focused on the direct oncogenic action of HDV, its role in modifying the tumor microenvironment, and the genetic signature of HDV-related HCC, comparing these features with HBV-related HCC.

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.

RESULTS

A total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.