Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease

Minimally invasive umbilical hernia repair is safe for patients with liver dysfunction: A propensity-score-matched analysis of approach and outcomes using ACS-NSQIP

BACKGROUND

Umbilical hernias are highly prevalent in patients with liver dysfunction, ascites, and cirrhosis. This patient population carries significant perioperative risk and poses significant challenges because of their comorbidities. Literature suggests that elective repair of umbilical hernias can lead to better outcomes by reducing the risk of ascitic leak and compromised bowel. Medical optimization followed by open repair has been the standard approach; however, little is known about whether a laparoscopic approach may be equivalent or superior.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2015 to 2021 for umbilical hernia repairs in patients with liver dysfunction, as defined per the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index ≥1. We compare operative outcomes for open and laparoscopic repair, adjusting for confounders using propensity score matching and stratifying by case acuity.

RESULTS

We identified 1,983 patients with liver dysfunction who underwent umbilical hernia repair. Most patients (86%) were operated via an open approach rather than laparoscopy. Operative outcomes between the laparoscopy and open group were comparable regarding mortality and serious complications. Notably, length of stay and need for blood transfusion intraoperatively or postoperatively were reduced in the laparoscopy group (P < .001). These findings remained significant after subgroup analysis with propensity matching stratified by elective and emergency case types.

CONCLUSION

Minimally invasive umbilical hernia repair in liver dysfunction is as safe and, in some metrics, superior to open technique. We found no difference in mortality although hospital stays and the need for blood transfusions were lower in the laparoscopy groups. Prospective randomized trials are needed to validate these findings further.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

The risk stratification and predictive performance of a new combined polygenic risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in liver diseases have generated some polygenic risk scores (PRSs), but their predictive effectiveness on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk assessment remains unclear.

METHODS

Here, we constructed a novel combined polygenic risk score and evaluated its increment to the well-established risk model. We used 15 HCC-associated genetic loci from two PRSs and FinnGen GWAS data to calculate a PRS-combined score and to fit the related PRS model in the UK Biobank cohort (N = 436,162). The PRS-combined score was further assessed for risk stratification for HCC integrating with the recommended clinical risk scores.

RESULTS

The PRS-combined model achieved a better AUC (0.657) than that of PRS-HFC (0.637) and PRS-cirrhosis (0.645). The top 20% of the PRS-combined distribution had a 3.25 increased risk of HCC vs. the middle decile (45-55%). At the population level, the addition of PRS-combined to the CLivD score significantly increased the C-statistic (from 0.716 to 0.746) and provided a remarkable improvement in reclassification (NRI = 0.088) at the 10-year risk threshold of 0.2%. In clinic, additional assessment of PRS-combined would reclassify 34,647 intermediate-risk participants as high genetic risk, corresponding to an increase of 63.92% (62/97) of the HCC events classified at high risk using the Fibrosis-4 alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRS may enhance HCC risk prediction effectiveness in the general population and refine risk stratification of the conventional clinical indicator.

The association between liver fibrosis score and incident dementia: A nationwide retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We assessed the relationship of liver fibrosis score with incident dementia in a large, national sample.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, data of dementia-free individuals aged 40-69 years were derived from electronic records of the largest healthcare provider in Israel. The association between liver fibrosis score (FIB-4), assessed from routine laboratory measurements, and incident dementia was explored through multivariate cox regression models.

RESULTS

Of the total sample (N = 826,578, mean age 55 ± 8 years at baseline), 636,967 (77%) had no fibrosis, 180,114 (21.8%) had inconclusive fibrosis status and 9497 (1.2%) had high risk for advanced fibrosis. Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 41,089 dementia cases were recorded. Inconclusive liver fibrosis and advanced fibrosis were associated with increased dementia risk (HR = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.07-1.11 and HR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.10-1.27, respectively). This association remained robust through seven sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver fibrosis assessed through a serum-based algorithm may serve as a risk factor for dementia in the general population.

HIGHLIGHTS

Liver fibrosis may predict dementia diagnosis in the general population. Inconclusive liver fibrosis was associated with 9% increased dementia risk. Advanced liver fibrosis was associated with 18% increased dementia risk. Findings remained robust in sensitivity analyses and after adjustments.

Biomarkers for Prediction of Alcohol-Related Liver Cirrhosis: A General Population-Based Swedish Study of 537,250 Individuals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The study sought to examine which biomarkers have the best predictive capabilities for future alcohol-related liver cirrhosis (ARLC) in a general population setting.

METHOD

This population-based cohort study includes approximately 35% of the inhabitants of Stockholm County who had left a blood sample at an outpatient visit in primary care or occupational health screening from 1985 to 1996. All subjects with a blood sample measurement of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were included, exclusions were made for persons with known liver disease. We ascertained incident ARLC by linkage to Swedish national health registers between to the end of 2011. Associations between biomarkers and incident ARLC were analyzed with Cox regression models and discrimination was assessed using C-statistics.

RESULTS

In all, 537,230 adult subjects were included. The mean age was 45 years and 53% were men. During a mean follow-up of 19.0 years, 2725 (0.51%) subjects developed ARLC. The biomarkers with the highest discrimination (C-index) for incident ARLC at 5 years were: AST (0.89), mean corpuscular volume (0.88), and γ-glutamyltransferase (0.81). Scoring systems including Fibrosis-4 (0.86) and the AST/alanine aminotransferase ratio (0.81) performed similarly well. The negative predictive value for ARLC was generally high (∼99.6%) across biomarkers, using routine clinical cutoffs to identify pathological values. However, positive predictive values were generally low (0.6%-15.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers commonly used in primary care settings are highly associated with incident ARLC in the general population. Elevation of these commonly available biomarkers should prompt consideration of further investigation of a possible high level of alcohol consumption.

Prognostic significance of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) are promising for monitoring disease progression or regression. We assessed the prognostic significance of dynamic changes in LSM over time on liver-related events (LREs) and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1272 patients with CHB and cACLD who underwent at least two measurements, including LSM and fibrosis score based on four factors (FIB-4). ΔLSM was defined as [(follow-up LSM - baseline LSM)/baseline LSM × 100]. We recorded LREs and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 46 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Baseline FIB-4, baseline LSM, ΔFIB-4, ΔLSM, and ΔLSM/year were independently and simultaneously associated with LREs (adjusted HR, 1.04, 95% CI, 1.00-1.07; 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; 1.06, 95% CI, 1.03-1.09; 1.96, 95% CI, 1.63-2.35, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.04, respectively). The baseline LSM combined with the ΔLSM achieved the highest Harrell's C (0.751), integrated AUC (0.776), and time-dependent AUC (0.737) for LREs. Using baseline LSM and ΔLSM, we proposed a risk stratification method to improve clinical applications. The risk proposed stratification based on LSM performed well in terms of prognosis: low risk (n = 390; reference), intermediate risk (n = 446; HR = 3.38), high risk (n = 272; HR = 5.64), and extremely high risk (n = 164; HR = 11.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline and repeated noninvasive tests measurement allow risk stratification of patients with CHB and cACLD. Combining baseline and dynamic changes in the LSM improves prognostic prediction.

Combined use of the CLivD score and FIB-4 for prediction of liver-related outcomes in the population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A need exists for effective and practical tools to identify individuals at increased risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) within the general population.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We externally validated the chronic liver disease (CLivD) score for LROs in the UK Biobank cohort. We also investigated the sequential combined use of CLivD and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores. Our analysis included 369,832 adults without baseline liver disease and with available data for CLivD and FIB-4 computation. LROs reflecting compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis or HCC were ascertained through linkages with electronic health care registries. Discriminatory performance and cumulative incidence were evaluated with competing-risk methodologies. Over a 10-year follow-up, time-dependent AUC values for LRO prediction were 0.80 for CLivD lab (including gamma-glutamyltransferase), 0.72 for CLivD non-lab (excluding laboratory values), and 0.75 for FIB-4. CLivD lab demonstrated AUC values exceeding 0.85 for liver-related death and severe alcohol-associated liver outcomes. The predictive performance of FIB-4 increased with rising CLivD scores; 10-year FIB-4 AUC values ranged from 0.60 within the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup to 0.81 within the high-risk CLivD subgroup. Moreover, in the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup, the cumulative incidence of LRO varied from 0.05% to 0.3% across low-to-high FIB-4 strata. In contrast, within the high-risk CLivD subgroup, the corresponding incidence ranged from 1.7% to 21.1% (up to 33% in individuals with FIB-4 >3.25).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLivD score is a valid tool for LRO risk assessment and improves the predictive performance of FIB-4. The combined use of CLivD and FIB-4 identified a subgroup where 1 in 3 individuals developed LROs within 10 years.

Clinical features of individuals with laboratory values suggestive of advanced liver fibrosis when first treated for alcohol use disorder

BACKGROUND

Effective screening for alcohol-associated liver disease is relevant in the context of chronic, excessive alcohol consumption. Patients with alcohol-associated liver disease are often not diagnosed until their liver disease is decompensated. We analyzed the prevalence and associations of Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) values suggestive of advanced liver fibrosis in patients referred for their first treatment of alcohol use disorder (AUD).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional, multicenter study of noncirrhotic individuals referred for their first AUD treatment between March 2013 and April 2021. We obtained sociodemographic data, substance use characteristics, and blood samples at admission. We considered a FIB-4 value ≥2.67 suggestive of advanced liver fibrosis and used logistic regression analyses to identify features associated with this value.

RESULTS

We included 604 patients (67% male), with a median age at admission of 48 years [IQR: 41-56 years]. The median duration of regular alcohol consumption was 21 years [IQR: 18-30 years] and the median alcohol consumption was 105 standard drink units (SDU)/week [IQR: 63-160 SDU/week]. A FIB-4 value ≥ 2.67 was present in 19.3% of cases. These patients reported more frequent binge drinking (75.4% vs. 66%, p = 0.05) than those with FIB-4 values below 2.67. In multivariate analysis, a history of binge drinking (OR 1.9, 95% CI, 1.05-3.47), anemia (OR 2.95, 95% CI, 1.42-6.11), leukopenia (OR 7.46, 95% CI, 2.07-26.8), and total serum bilirubin >1 mg/dL (OR 6.46, 95% CI, 3.57-11.7) were independently associated with FIB-4 values ≥2.67.

CONCLUSIONS

One in five patients admitted to treatment for AUD without evidence of decompensated liver disease have FIB-4 values suggestive of advanced liver fibrosis. The presence of a binge drinking history, anemia, leukopenia, and elevated bilirubin levels is associated with high FIB-4 values.

Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Clinical and genetic risk factors for progressive fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) is a recommended noninvasive test to assess hepatic fibrosis among patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Here, we used FIB4 trajectory over time (ie, "slope" of FIB4) as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis progression and examined if FIB4 slope is associated with clinical and genetic factors among individuals with clinically defined MASLD within the Million Veteran Program Cohort.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, FIB4 slopes were estimated through linear regression for participants with clinically defined MASLD and FIB4 <2.67 at baseline. FIB4 slope was correlated with demographic parameters and clinical outcomes using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models. FIB4 slope as a quantitative phenotype was used in a genome-wide association analysis in ancestry-specific analysis and multiancestry meta-analysis using METAL.

RESULTS

FIB4 slopes, generated from 98,361 subjects with MASLD (16,045 African, 74,320 European, and 7996 Hispanic), showed significant associations with sex, ancestry, and cardiometabolic risk factors (p < 0.05). FIB4 slopes also correlated strongly with hepatic outcomes and were independently associated with time to cirrhosis. Five genetic loci showed genome-wide significant associations (p < 5 × 10-8) with FIB4 slope among European ancestry subjects, including 2 known (PNPLA3 and TM6SF2) and 3 novel loci (TERT 5.1 × 10-11; LINC01088, 3.9 × 10-8; and MRC1, 2.9 × 10-9).

CONCLUSIONS

Linear trajectories of FIB4 correlated significantly with time to progression to cirrhosis, with liver-related outcomes among individuals with MASLD and with known and novel genetic loci. FIB4 slope may be useful as a surrogate measure of fibrosis progression.

LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

METHODS

The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

FINDINGS

Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

FUNDING

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).

Association between elevated fibrosis-4 index of liver fibrosis and risk of hemorrhagic stroke

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Liver fibrosis, typically a silent condition, is antecedent to cirrhosis. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that elevated Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, indicating a high probability of liver fibrosis, is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

METHODS

We performed a cohort analysis of the prospective United Kingdom Biobank cohort study. Participants 40-69 years old were enrolled between 2007 and 2010 and had available follow-up data until March 1, 2018. We excluded participants with prevalent hemorrhagic stroke or thrombocytopenia. High probability of liver fibrosis was defined as having a value >2.67 of the validated FIB-4 index. The primary outcome was hemorrhagic stroke (intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage), defined based on hospitalization and death registry data. Secondary outcomes were intracerebral and subarachnoid hemorrhage, separately. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association of FIB-4 index >2.67 with hemorrhagic stroke while adjusting for potential confounders including hypertension, alcohol use, and antithrombotic use.

RESULTS

Among 452,994 participants (mean age, 57 years; 54% women), approximately 2% had FIB-4 index >2.67, and 1241 developed hemorrhagic stroke. In adjusted models, FIB-4 index >2.67 was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.6). Results were similar for intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5-2.7) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5) individually.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated FIB-4 index was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Association Between Liver Fibrosis Score and Diabetic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study of Hospitalized Patients

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between liver fibrosis score and diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A total of 897 hospitalized patients with T2DM were included in this study. Each patient completed DKD screening. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive value of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NAFLD-FS) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) for the occurrence of DKD and risk for DKD progression, respectively.

RESULTS

The prevalence of DKD and risk for its progression significantly increased with increasing NAFLD-FS risk category. DKD prevalence also increased with increasing FIB-4 risk category. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the "high-risk" NAFLD-FS had a significantly higher risk of DKD (odds ratio [OR]: 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16-3.08) and risk for DKD progression (OR: 2.88, 95% CI: 1.23-6.78), and the "intermediate-risk" FIB-4 had a significantly higher risk of DKD (OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.00-1.98). Subgroup analysis showed that the association between NAFLD-FS and FIB-4 and DKD was significant in the female subgroup, whereas the association between the "high-risk" NAFLD-FS and risk for DKD progression was significant in the male subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD-FS and FIB-4 are strongly associated with DKD and risk for DKD progression in patients with T2DM. Additionally, sexual dimorphism exists in this association.

Serum biomarkers for liver fibrosis assessment

Liver fibrosis is the result of chronic liver injury of different etiologies produced by an imbalance between the synthesis and degeneration of the extracellular matrix and dysregulation of physiological mechanisms. Liver has a high regenerative capacity in the early stage of chronic diseases so a prompt liver fibrosis detection is important. Consequently, an easy and economic tool that could identify patients with liver fibrosis at the initial stages is needed. To achieve this, many non-invasive serum direct, such as hyaluronic acid or metalloproteases, and indirect biomarkers have been proposed to evaluate liver fibrosis. Also, there have been developed formulas that combine these biomarkers, some of them also introduce clinical and/or demographic parameters, like FIB-4, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), enhance liver fibrosis (ELF) or Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS). In this manuscript we critically reviewed different serum biomarkers and formulas for their utility in the diagnosis and progression of liver fibrosis.

Biomarcadores séricos para la evaluación de la fibrosis hepática

La fibrosis hepática se desarrolla como respuesta a la presencia de daño hepático crónico de diferentes etiologías, provocando un desequilibrio entre la síntesis y degeneración de la matriz extracelular y la desregulación de diversos mecanismos fisiológicos. En los estadios iniciales de las patologías crónicas, el hígado posee una elevada capacidad de regeneración, por lo que la detección temprana de la fibrosis hepática resulta esencial. En este contexto, es preciso contar con herramientas sencillas y económicas que permitan detectar la fibrosis hepática en sus fases iniciales. Para evaluar la fibrosis hepática, se han propuesto multitud de biomarcadores séricos no invasivos, tanto directos, como el ácido hialurónico o las metaloproteasas, como indirectos. Así mismo, se han desarrollado diversas fórmulas que combinan dichos biomarcadores junto con parámetros demográficos, como el índice FIB-4, el índice de fibrosis en la enfermedad de hígado graso no alcohólico (NFS, por sus siglas en inglés), la prueba ELF o el score de fibrosis Hepamet (HFS, por sus siglas en inglés). En el presente manuscrito, realizamos una revisión crítica del valor diagnóstico y pronóstico de los diferentes biomarcadores séricos y fórmulas actualmente existentes.

Lipoprotein(a) level predicts the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Korean adults: A retrospective longitudinal study

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent condition in the general population. Although recent studies have demonstrated a link between NAFLD and lipoprotein(a), a low-density lipoprotein-like particle synthesized in the liver, its precise physiological role and mechanism of action remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between lipoprotein(a) levels and development of NAFLD and hepatic fibrosis in Korean adults. A total of 1501 subjects who underwent abdominal ultrasonography at least twice as part of a health checkup program were enrolled. Biochemical and ultrasonography results were analyzed longitudinally, and the degree of hepatic fibrosis was calculated in subjects with NAFLD using serum biomarkers, such as fibrosis-4 (FIB-4). During the 3.36-year follow-up period, 352 patients (23.5%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. The subjects were categorized into 4 groups based on their lipoprotein(a) levels. Remarkably, the incidence of NAFLD decreased as the lipoprotein(a) levels increased. Following logistic regression analysis and adjustment for various risk factors, the odds ratio for the development of NAFLD was 0.625 (95% CI 0.440-0.888; P = .032) when comparing the highest to the lowest tertile of lipoprotein(a). However, no significant association was observed between the occurrence of hepatic fibrosis and lipoprotein(a) levels in subjects with NAFLD. Lipoprotein(a) levels have been identified as a significant predictor of NAFLD development. Additional large-scale studies with extended follow-up periods are required to better understand the effect of lipoprotein(a) on NAFLD and hepatic fibrosis.

Non-specific uptake of 18F-FAPI-04 in the pancreas and its related factors: a post-hoc analysis of an ongoing prospective clinical trial

This study aimed to analyze the characteristics of the non-specific uptake (NSU) of 18F-labeled fibroblast activation protein inhibitor (18F-FAPI) of the pancreas and investigate the related factors. Totally, 78 patients who underwent both 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and 18F-FAPI PET/CT examinations were divided into normal (n = 53) and NSU (n = 25) groups. The differences in general information, medical history, laboratory indexes and uptake were compared. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze the optimal cut-off values. The correlations between 18F-FAPI-SUVmax and blood cell analysis, liver function indexes, tumor markers, and inflammatory indices were analyzed. The logistic regression model was used to estimate the independent factors. Both 18F-FAPI (4.48 ± 0.98 vs. 2.01 ± 0.53, t = 11.718, P < 0.05) and 18F-FDG (2.23 ± 0.42 vs. 2.02 ± 0.44, t = 2.036, P = 0.045) showed significantly higher in NSU group. Patients in the NSU group tended to be complicated with a history of drinking (P = 0.034), chronic liver diseases (P = 0.006), and surgery of gastrectomy (P = 0.004). ROC analysis showed cutoff values of 3.25 and 2.05 for 18F-FAPI and 18F-FDG in identifying the NSU. Patients in the NSU group showed less platelet count, higher platelet volume, higher total bilirubin, direct or indirect bilirubin (P < 0.05). Platelet count, platelet crit, large platelet ratio, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), α-L-fucosidase, and total, direct or indirect bilirubin were correlated with 18F-FAPI-SUVmax (P < 0.05). AST [1.099 (1.014, 1.192), P = 0.021] and total bilirubin [1.137 (1.035, 1.249), P = 0.007] were two independent factors in the step forward logistic regression, and platelet/% [1.079 (1.004, 1.160), P = 0.039] and total bilirubin [1.459 (1.016, 2.095), P = 0.041] were two independent factors in the step backward logistic regression for the prediction of pancreatic uptake of 18F-FAPI. 18F-FAPI-PET/CT was better than 18F-FDG in predicting the pancreatic NSU, and NSU is related to a history of drinking, chronic liver diseases, gastrectomy, heteromorphic platelet, and impaired liver function.

Liver fat as a dietary target by Chinese Medical Nutrition Therapy (CMNT) diet for treating type 2 diabetes with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) often coexist and increase risk for developing liver fibrosis and diabetes complications if no effective measures are taken. Dietary intervention is known to be able to achieve diabetes remission, while evidence regarding the long-term effect on liver fat is limited for comorbidity management of type 2 diabetes and NAFLD. This study aims to investigate the long-term effect of a Chinese Medical Nutrition Therapy (CMNT) diet accompanied by intermittent energy restriction on reducing liver fat and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with type 2 diabetes and NAFLD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a multicentre two-armed parallel randomised controlled trial study. 120 participants with type 2 diabetes and NAFLD will be recruited from the physical examination centres of multiple hospitals in China. Participants will be randomly allocated 1:1 to either the CMNT group or the usual care group. The CMNT group will be instructed to consume the provided specific meal replacement Chinese medicinal foods consisting of 6 cycles of 5 consecutive days followed by 10 days of regular food intake. The usual care group will be given standard dietary advice. Primary outcomes are changes in the controlled attenuation parameter value by transient elastography and HbA1c level. Secondary outcomes include differences in anthropometrics, clinical blood markers, questionnaires, gut microbiota and metabolomics. Further follow-up will be performed at 6 months, 1 year and 2 years.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol was approved by the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee of Hunan Agricultural University (BRECHAU20200235).The results will be disseminated via relevant peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05439226.

The hidden epidemic: Uncovering incidental fatty liver disease and its metabolic comorbidities by datamining in a hospital data lake - A real-world cohort study

AIMS

To identify individuals with incidental fatty liver disease (FLD), and to evaluate its prevalence, metabolic co-morbidities and impact on follow-up.

METHODS

We leveraged the data-lake of Helsinki Uusimaa Hospital district (Finland) with a population of 1.7 million (specialist and primary care). A phrase recognition script on abdominal imaging reports (2008-2020) identified/excluded FLD or cirrhosis; we extracted ICD-codes, laboratory and BMI data.

RESULTS

Excluding those with other liver diseases, the prevalence of FLD was 29% (steatosis yes/no, N=61,271/155,521; cirrhosis, N=3502). The false positive and negative rates were 5-6%. Only 1.6% of the FLD cases had the ICD code recorded and 32% had undergone full clinical evaluation for associated co-morbidities. Of the 35-65-year-old individuals with FLD, 20% had diabetes, 42% prediabetes and 28% a high liver fibrosis index. FLD was independently predicted by diabetes (OR 1.56, CI 1.46-1.66, p = 2.3 * 10^-41), BMI (1.46, 1.42-1.50, p = 1.7 * 10^-154) and plasma triglyceride level (1.5, 1.43-1.57, p = 3.5 * 10^-68). Alanine aminotransferase level mildly increased (1.12, 1.08-1.16, p = 2.2 * 10^-9) and high age decreased the risk (0.92, 0.89-0.94, p = 4.65*10^-09). Half of the cases had normal ALT.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidental radiological finding of FLD is reliable and associated with metabolic risks but largely ignored, although it should lead to metabolic and hepatic follow-up.

Association between metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is the second most common aortic pathological manifestation. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has a wide impact on the cardiovascular system and may be a risk factor for AAA. The aim of this study was to investigate whether MAFLD is associated with the risk of AAA.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the prospective UK Biobank cohort study. MAFLD is defined as hepatic steatosis plus metabolic abnormality, type 2 diabetes, or overweight/obesity. AAA is collected by ICD-10 code. Cox regression was established to analyze the association between MAFLD and AAA. A total of 370203 participants were included; the average age of the participants was 56.7 ± 8.0 years, and 134649 (36.4 %) were diagnosed with MAFLD. During the 12.5 years of follow-up, 1561 (0.4 %) participants developed AAA. After fully adjusting for confounding factors, individuals with MAFLD had a significantly increased risk of AAA (HR 1.521, 95 % CI 1.351-1.712, p < 0.001). Importantly, the risk of AAA increases with the severity of MAFLD as assessed by fibrosis scores. These associations were consistent according to sex, weight, and alcohol consumption but weaker in elderly or diabetics (P for interaction <0.05). The association between the MAFLD phenotype and AAA was independent of the polygenic risk score. Additionally, MAFLD was not associated with thoracic aortic aneurysm or aortic dissection events.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant relationship between MAFLD and AAA. These findings strongly recommend early prevention of AAA by intervening in MAFLD.

Association of liver fibrosis with cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

Cognitive decline is a common but variable non-motor manifestation of Parkinson's disease. Chronic liver disease contributes to dementia, but its impact on cognitive performance in Parkinson's disease is unknown. We assessed the effect of liver fibrosis on cognition in Parkinson's disease.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. Our exposure was liver fibrosis at baseline, based on the validated Fibrosis-4 score. Our primary outcome was the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and additional outcome measures were the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, the Benton Judgement of Line Orientation, the Letter-Number Sequencing Test, and the Modified Semantic Fluency Test. We used linear regression models to assess the relationship between liver fibrosis and scores on cognitive assessments at baseline and linear mixed models to evaluate the association between baseline Fibrosis-4 score with changes in each cognitive test over five years. Models were adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and alcohol use.

RESULTS

We included 409 participants (mean age 61, 40 % women). There was no significant association between liver fibrosis and baseline performance on any of the cognitive assessments in adjusted models. However, over the subsequent five year period, liver fibrosis was associated with more rapid decline in scores on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (interaction coefficient, -0.07; 95 % CI, -0.12, -0.02), the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, the Benton Judgement of Line Orientation, and the Modified Semantic Fluency Test.

CONCLUSION

In people with Parkinson's disease, the presence of comorbid liver fibrosis was associated with more rapid decline across multiple cognitive domains.

Modifiable lifestyle factors, genetic and acquired risk, and the risk of severe liver disease in the UK Biobank cohort: (Lifestyle factors and SLD)

BACKGROUND

Lifestyle intervention is important for the treatment of liver diseases.

AIMS

To clarify the association of healthy lifestyle with severe liver disease (SLD) and assessed whether genetic susceptibility and acquired fibrosis risk can modify the association.

METHODS

We included 417,986 UK Biobank participants who were free of SLD at baseline. Information on seven modifiable lifestyle factors was collected through a baseline questionnaire. SLD was defined as a medical diagnosis of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver failure. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between healthy lifestyle factors and risk of incident SLD. The polygenic risk score (PRS) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) were calculated and set as an interaction term.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.6 years, 4542 fatal and non-fatal SLD incidents were identified. A higher overall lifestyle score was associated with a significantly lower SLD risk (Ptrend <0.001). An increment of 1-point lifestyle score combined with a 1-SD increment in FIB-4 or PRS was associated with an additional reduction of 3% or 2% in SLD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In European individuals, a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of incident SLD, which is more pronounced among individuals with a higher genetic and fibrosis risk.

Prognostic utility of Fibrosis-4 Index for risk of subsequent liver and cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality in individuals with obesity and/or type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study

Background

The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) is used as a non-invasive tool for the presence of advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. However, evidence for an association between FIB-4 and risk of mortality and/or liver-related clinical outcomes is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between FIB-4 and subsequent liver events, cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality in individuals with obesity and/or type 2 diabetes examined in routine general practice.

Methods

This was a longitudinal cohort study in which eligible adults had obesity and/or type 2 diabetes and ≥1 FIB-4 score calculable from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD after 1 January 2001. No alcohol-related disorders and/or chronic liver diseases (except non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) and/or no prescriptions of drugs inducing liver disease were permitted. Individuals were followed until time of first event, 10 years, or 1 January 2020. Analyses were conducted using Aalen-Johansen cumulative incidence functions and Cox proportional hazards models.

Findings

Among 44,481 included individuals (mean age 58·8 years; 54% female), there were 979 liver, 6002 cardiovascular, and 8971 mortality events during the 10 years of follow-up. At 10 years, the cumulative incidence of liver events in the high (>2·67), indeterminate (1·30-2·67), and low (<1·30) baseline FIB-4 risk groups were 15%, 3%, and 1%, respectively. Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for liver events were elevated in high (16·46; 95% confidence interval [CI] 13·65-19·85) and indeterminate (2·45; 95% CI 2·07-2·90) versus low FIB-4 risk groups. Similar results were found for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Among 20,433 individuals with ≥2 FIB-4 measurements, increase/decrease in FIB-4 12 months after baseline was directly associated with risk of liver events: compared with individuals with low baseline FIB-4 and no change in FIB-4 (reference), the adjusted HR (95% CI) for those with high baseline FIB-4 was 24·27 (16·98-34·68) with a one-unit FIB-4 increase, and 10·90 (7·90-15·05) with a one-unit decrease.

Interpretation

In addition to its value as a diagnostic tool, FIB-4 has clinical utility as a prognostic biomarker. Sequential measurement provides a pragmatic, tractable monitoring biomarker that refines risk assessment for liver events, cardiovascular events, and mortality.

Funding

Novo Nordisk A/S.

Magnetic resonance elastography-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation in NAFLD: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate, continuous biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, the optimal combination with clinical factors to predict the risk of incident hepatic decompensation is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an MRE-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation for patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This international multicenter cohort study included participants with NAFLD undergoing MRE from 6 hospitals. A total of 1254 participants were randomly assigned as training (n = 627) and validation (n = 627) cohorts. The primary end point was hepatic decompensation, defined as the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or HE. Covariates associated with hepatic decompensation on Cox-regression were combined with MRE to construct a risk prediction model in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. The median (IQR) age and MRE values were 61 (18) years and 3.5 (2.5) kPa in the training cohort and 60 (20) years and 3.4 (2.5) kPa in the validation cohort, respectively. The MRE-based multivariable model that included age, MRE, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets had excellent discrimination for the 3- and 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (c-statistic 0.912 and 0.891, respectively) in the training cohort. The diagnostic accuracy remained consistent in the validation cohort with a c-statistic of 0.871 and 0.876 for hepatic decompensation at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and was superior to Fibrosis-4 in both cohorts ( p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

An MRE-based prediction model allows for accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation and assists in the risk stratification of patients with NAFLD.

Fibrosis-4 Index Predicts Long-Term All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Liver-Related Mortality in the Adult Korean Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Associations between hepatic fibrosis and mortality remain to be fully elucidated in large population-based studies. This study aimed to evaluate the associations of the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) with all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer, and liver-related mortality in the adult Korean population without viral hepatitis.

METHODS

Baseline data were retrieved from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and mortality data were retrieved from the Korean Cause of Death data registry. Adults (age, ≥19 y) without viral hepatitis B or C, liver cirrhosis, any cancer, stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, or renal failure at baseline were eligible. Presumed hepatic fibrosis was evaluated with FIB-4. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were calculated using multivariable Cox regression analysis, and Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative mortality were evaluated.

RESULTS

There were 46,456 individuals with a median follow-up period of 8.6 years (interquartile range, 6.3-10.6 y). Kaplan-Meier curves for cumulative mortality showed that participants with a FIB-4 of ≥2.67 (vs FIB-4, <2.67) had higher cumulative all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer, and liver-related mortality. In the fully adjusted model, Cox regression analysis revealed that presumed advanced hepatic fibrosis (FIB-4, ≥2.67) remained associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.18), cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.60-5.46), and liver-related mortality (HR, 10.50; 95% CI, 4.70-23.44), but not cancer mortality, after adjusting for confounders including central obesity and insulin resistance. Excluding participants with an estimated alcohol intake of 30 grams or more for men and 20 grams or more for women did not affect the results.

CONCLUSIONS

At the population level, liver fibrosis estimated by FIB-4 was associated with increased cumulative all-cause, cardiovascular, and liver-related mortality.

MEFIB-Index and MAST-Score in the assessment of hepatic decompensation in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatosis liver disease-Individual participant data meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

There are limited data regarding the longitudinal association between MEFIB-Index (MRE combined with FIB-4) versus MAST-Score (MRI-aspartate aminotransferase) and hepatic decompensation.

AIM

To examine the longitudinal association between MEFIB-Index versus MAST-Score in predicting hepatic decompensation in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

METHODS

This was a longitudinal, retrospective analysis of subjects from United States, Japan, and Turkey who underwent a baseline MRE and MRI-PDFF and were followed for hepatic decompensation. Cox-proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the association between MEFIB-Index versus MAST-Score with a composite primary outcome (hepatic decompensation) defined as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and varices needing treatment.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis of individual participants (IPDMA) included 454 patients (58% women) with a mean (±SD) age of 56.0 (±13.5) years. The MEFIB-Index (MRE ≥3.3 kPa + FIB 4 ≥1.6) and MAST-Score (>0.242) were positive for 34% and 9% of the sample, respectively. At baseline, 23 patients met criteria for hepatic decompensation. Among 297 patients with available longitudinal data with a median (IQR) of 4.2 (5.0) years of follow-up, 25 incident cases met criteria for hepatic decompensation. A positive MEFIB-Index [HR = 49.22 (95% CI: 6.23-388.64, p < 0.001)] and a positive MAST-Score [HR = 3.86 (95% CI: 1.46-10.17, p < 0.001)] were statistically significant predictors of the incident hepatic decompensation. MEFIB-Index (c-statistic: 0.89, standard error (SE) = 0.02) was statistically superior to the MAST-Score (c-statistic: 0.81, SE = 0.03) (p < 0.0001) in predicting hepatic decompensation.

CONCLUSION

A combination of MRI-based biomarker and blood tests, MEFIB-Index and MAST-Score can predict the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with MASLD.

Prognostication in NAFLD: physiological bases, clinical indicators, and newer biomarkers

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming an epidemic in Western countries. Notably, while the majority of NAFLD patients will not evolve until advanced liver disease, a minority of them will progress towards liver-related events. Therefore, risk stratification and prognostication are emerging as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources for the care of these patients.Liver fibrosis has been clearly recognized as the main predictor of poor hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. However, a prediction based only on the stage of fibrosis is near-sighted and static, as it does not capture the propensity of disease to further progress, the speed of progression and their changes over time. These determinants, which result from the interaction between genetic predisposition and acquired risk factors (obesity, diabetes, etc.), express themselves in disease activity, and can be synthesized by biomarkers of hepatic inflammation and fibrogenesis.In this review, we present the currently available clinical tools for risk stratification and prognostication in NAFLD specifically with respect to the risk of progression towards hard hepatic outcomes, i.e., liver-related events and death. We also discuss about the genetic and acquired drivers of disease progression, together with the physiopathological bases of their come into action. Finally, we introduce the most promising biomarkers in the direction of repeatedly assessing disease activity over time, mainly in response to future therapeutic interventions.

Hepatic Impairment as a Risk Factor for Drug Safety: Suitability and Comparison of Four Liver Scores as Screening Tools

Hepatic impairment (HI) influences the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of drugs and represents an important risk factor for drug safety. A reliable screening tool for HI identification at hospital admission by pharmacists would be desirable but is currently lacking. Therefore, we tested four liver scores as potential screening instruments. We retrospectively recorded liver/bile diagnoses, symptoms and abnormalities (summarized as hepatic findings) of 200 surgical patients followed by an assessment of the relevance of these findings for drug therapy (rating). The agreement between the Model of Endstage Liver Disease (MELD), Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), and aspartate-aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and the rating was quantified by Cohen's Kappa. The performance of the scores in this setting was further evaluated by their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Of 200 patients, 18 (9%) had hepatic findings relevant for drug therapy. Fair agreement was found for FIB-4 and MELD and slight agreement for APRI and NFS compared to the rating. The highest values for sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 41.2% (MELD), 99.3% (APRI), 66.7% (APRI), and 93.6% (MELD), respectively. Due to low performance, none of the scores can be recommended for clinical use as a single screening tool for HI at hospital admission.

Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.

The NAFLD burden on mortality and morbidities in general population: A community-based longitudinal study (NASH-CO study)

BACKGROUND

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on morbidity and mortality has yet to be documented at the general population level. This study aimed to assess whether NAFLD was associated with morbidities and mortality and to estimate its impact on health status and mortality.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 137 206 participants from Constances cohort. Non-invasive diagnosis of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis was performed using the fatty liver index and Forns index, respectively. Constances data were linked to health care and hospitalization data to identify liver-related events, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), extrahepatic cancers (EHC), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NAFLD was 18.3% in subjects without other chronic liver diseases, among whom 2.7% had fibrosis. NAFLD after IPTW-weighted remained associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.57), hepatic-related complications (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.99-3.29), CVD (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30-1.55), EHC (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.28) and CKD (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.53-2.07) compared to those without chronic liver diseases risk factors (Non-NAFLD). In the trend analysis over the study period of inclusion and compared to Non-NAFLD, NAFLD has shown a fastest growing cause of hepatic events (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.76 per year), CVD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.12), CKD (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25), and death (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.39-1.50).

CONCLUSION

This large community-based cohort showed that NAFLD was associated with excess morbidity and mortality and demonstrated a fastest-growing trend.

Combined use of the ELF test and CLivD score improves prediction of liver-related outcomes in the general population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effective and feasible population screening strategies are needed for the early detection of individuals at high risk of future severe liver-related outcomes. We evaluated the predictive performance of the combination of liver fibrosis assessment, phenotype profile, and genetic risk.

METHODS

Data from 5795 adults attending the Finnish Health 2000 Survey were linked with healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, hepatocellular cancer, and death). Fibrosis was assessed using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, phenotype profile by the chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score, and genetic risk by a validated Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-5). Predictive performance was assessed by competing-risk analyses.

RESULTS

During a median 13-year follow-up, 64 liver-related outcome events were recorded. ELF, CLivD score, and PRS-5 were independently associated with liver-related outcomes. The absolute 10-year risk of liver-related outcomes at an ELF value of 11.3 ranged from 0.3% to 33% depending on the CLivD score. The CLivD score added 51% of new predictive information to the ELF test and improved areas under the curve (AUCs) from 0.91, 0.81, and 0.71 for ELF alone to 0.95, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively, for ELF combined with the CLivD score at 1, 5, and 10 years. The greatest improvement was for 10-year predictions (delta-AUC 0.097, p < .0001). Adding PRS-5 did not significantly increase predictive performance. Findings were consistent in individuals with obesity, diabetes, or alcohol risk use, and regardless of whether gamma-glutamyltransferase was used in the CLivD score.

CONCLUSION

A combination of ELF and CLivD score predicts liver-related outcomes significantly better than the ELF test alone.

Associations of MAFLD and MAFLD subtypes with the risk of the incident myocardial infarction and stroke

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a condition characterized by liver fat accumulation and metabolic abnormalities. Given the potential impact of MAFLD on patient health, it is important to understand its association with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) such as myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. In the prospective UK Biobank cohort, we sought to elucidate the association of MAFLD and its subtypes with incident MI and stroke. In this study, we analyzed the data of 325,129 participants in the UK Biobank and calculated relative risks for MI and stroke using Cox regression analysis. Among 325,129 participants over a median duration of 12.8 years follow-up, participants with MAFLD were significantly more likely to experience a MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI: 1.29;1.41] P < 0.001) or a stroke (HR = 1.26 [1.18-1.33] P < 0.001) compared to those without MAFLD. In addition, diabetic, overweight with metabolic dysfunction (MD), and lean MAFLD subtypes were significantly associated with an increased risk for MI and stroke, whereas overweight without MD subtype did not appear to be associated with this risk. Our findings also revealed graded associations between liver fibrosis scores and risk of MI and stroke in MAFLD patients. However, only diabetic, and overweight patients with MD subtypes exhibited graded associations between liver fibrosis score and the risk of MI and stroke among the MAFLD subtypes. Furthermore, the risk alleles traits of fatty liver did not enhance the effect of MAFLD on the risk of MI and stroke. In conclusion, a diagnosis of MAFLD is associated with an increased risk of MI or stroke, and the assessment of MAFLD and its subtypes should be a component of the cardiovascular risk assessment.

Management of Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), previously known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is the most common cause of liver disease in the world. Its prevalence is over 30% and is becoming the most common cause of liver transplants. Rates are rising along with obesity-related diseases. Risk factors for MAFLD include adverse lifestyles, genetic variations, advancing age, male sex, and alterations in the gut microbiota. Extrahepatic complications include cardiovascular disease, renal dysfunction, and colorectal cancer. As there are no currently approved medications for MAFLD, management mainly focuses on lifestyle modifications.

Fibrosis-4 index is associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

Background and aims

Identification of high-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for long term monitoring of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis progression. We sought to evaluate the association between Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and incidence of HCC risk among patients with NASH cirrhosis.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NASH cirrhosis (n= 1,338) who were evaluated in a single medical center between 2005 and 2015. Those who developed HCC were identified through electronic medical records using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 and 10 codes until the end of September 2021.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 3.7 years, 157 (11.7%) patients with NASH cirrhosis developed HCC. At index visit, the study population had a median age 57 years, 43% males, 78.8% White, and mean FIB-4 index 4.2. The final multivariable Cox regression model revealed that male sex, BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2, and hypertension were independent factors associated with development of HCC in patients with NASH cirrhosis. Compared to patients with FIB-4 ¾ 1.45, patients with FIB-4 between 1.45-3.25 had a similar hazard of HCC (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.12, 95% CI: 0.67-1.86, p=0.670), whereas patients with FIB-4 >3.25 had a 1.93 (95% CI: 1.22-3.05, p=0.005) increased hazard of HCC.

Conclusion

FIB-4 > 3.25 was an independent factor associated with increased HCC risk among NASH cirrhosis patients. FIB-4 index is a promising tool for determining high-risk patients and may be used in routine clinical practice to monitor risk of HCC in patients with NASH cirrhosis.

Gas6 in chronic liver disease-a novel blood-based biomarker for liver fibrosis

The expression of the receptor tyrosine kinase Axl and its cleavage product soluble Axl (sAxl) is increased in liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this multicenter study, we evaluated the diagnostic value of Gas6, the high-affinity ligand of Axl, in patients with chronic liver disease. Levels of sAxl and Gas6, and their albumin (alb) ratios were analyzed in serum samples of patients with biopsy-proven liver fibrosis, end-stage liver disease, HCC, and healthy controls, and were compared to Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF™) test, Child-Pugh score (CPS), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, hepatic venous pressure gradient, and α-fetoprotein, respectively. A total of 1111 patients (median age 57.8 y, 67.3% male) was analyzed. Gas6/alb showed high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of significant (≥F2: AUC 0.805) to advanced fibrosis (≥F3: AUC 0.818), and was superior to Fib-4 for the detection of cirrhosis (F4: AUC 0.897 vs. 0.878). In addition, Gas6/alb was highly predictive of liver disease severity (Odds ratios for CPS B/C, MELD ≥ 15, and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) were 16.534, 10.258, and 12.115), and was associated with transplant-free survival (Hazard ratio 1.031). Although Gas6 and Gas6/alb showed high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of HCC in comparison to chronic liver disease patients without cirrhosis (AUC 0.852, 0.868), they failed to discriminate between HCC in cirrhosis versus cirrhosis only. In conclusion, Gas6/alb shows a high accuracy to detect significant to advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, and predicts severity of liver disease including CSPH.

Elevated C-reactive protein mediates the liver-brain axis: a preliminary study

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver diseases of all etiologies exist along a spectrum with varying degrees of hepatic fibrosis. Despite accumulating evidence implying associations between liver fibrosis and cognitive functioning, there is limited research exploring the underlying neurobiological factors and the possible mediating role of inflammation on the liver-brain axis.

METHODS

Using data from the UK Biobank, we examined the cross-sectional association of liver fibrosis (as measured by Fibrosis-4 score) with cognitive functioning and regional grey matter volumes (GMVs) while adjusting for numerous covariates and multiple comparisons. We further performed post-hoc preliminary analysis to investigate the mediating effect of C-reactive protein (CRP) on the association between liver fibrosis and both cognitive functioning and GMVs.

FINDINGS

We analysed behaviour from up to 447,626 participants (N ranged from 45,055 to 447,533 per specific cognitive metric) 37 years and older. 38,244 participants (age range 44-82 years) had GMV data collected at a median 9-year follow-up. Liver fibrosis showed significant associations with cognitive performance in reasoning, working memory, visual memory, prospective memory, executive function, and processing speed. Subgroup analysis indicated larger effects sizes for symbol digital substitution but smaller effect sizes for trail making in middle-aged people than their old counterparts. Neuroimaging analyses revealed significant associations between liver fibrosis and reduced regional GMVs, primarily in the hippocampus, thalamus, ventral striatum, parahippocampal gyrus, brain stem, and cerebellum. CRP levels were significantly higher in adults with advanced liver fibrosis than those without, indicating an elevated systemic inflammation. Moreover, the serum CRP significantly mediated the effect of liver fibrosis on most cognitive measures and regional GMVs in the hippocampus and brain stem.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides a well-powered characterization of associations between liver fibrosis, cognitive impairment, and grey matter atrophy. It also highlights the possibly mediating role of systemic inflammation on the liver-brain axis. Early surveillance and prevention of liver diseases may reduce cognitive decline and brain GMV loss.

FUNDING

National Science Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

Lean individuals with NAFLD have more severe liver disease and poorer clinical outcomes (NASH-CO Study)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The severity of liver injury and clinical outcomes in lean individuals with NAFLD is a subject of debate and very few studies have been performed in the general population. The aim of this study was to compare subject characteristics and mortality between lean and nonlean NAFLD in a community setting.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The study population included 169,303 participants from the nationwide Constances cohort. Subjects with excessive alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis, or other liver diseases were excluded and 137,206 subjects were analyzed. The diagnosis of NAFLD and fibrosis was performed using the Fatty Liver Index and the Forns Index. The median follow-up was 3.58 years. The prevalence of NAFLD was 5.3% (95% CI: 5.2-5.4) in lean subjects, while 16.3% (95% CI: 15.7-16.8) of NAFLD subjects were lean. Despite their better metabolic profile, the prevalence of advanced fibrosis was significantly higher in lean than in nonlean NAFLD (3.7% vs. 1.7%, respectively, p < 0.01). Among NAFLD subjects and after adjustment for demographics, metabolic risk factors and lifestyle, lean status was associated with advanced fibrosis (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65, p = 0.005), an increased risk of liver-related events (adjusted HR=5.84, 95% CI: 4.03-8.46), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR=2.49, 95% CI: 1.49-4.16), and overall mortality (adjusted HR=3.01, 95% CI: 2.21-4.11). Liver-related events and overall mortality were related to the severity of fibrosis, both in lean and nonlean NAFLD subjects, whatever the usual risk factors.

CONCLUSION

This study in a large community-based cohort confirms that NAFLD in lean subjects is more severe for fibrosis, the progression of liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and overall mortality.

Diagnostic Performance of Noninvasive Tests for Advanced Hepatic Fibrosis in Young Age Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Most noninvasive tests (NITs) for hepatic fibrosis are designed for middle-aged patients with chronic liver disease. We compared the diagnostic performance of major NITs (aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index [APRI], Fibrosis-4 index, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score) for a community-based cohort.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study analyzed 8775 participants who underwent magnetic resonance elastography at community health check-up centers. Advanced hepatic fibrosis (≥F3) was defined by magnetic resonance elastography thresholds of 3.6 kPa. The diagnostic performance of 3 NITs was evaluated according to the etiology of liver disease, sex, metabolic syndrome, obesity, and increased aminotransferase levels in 4 age groups.

RESULTS

The APRI generally showed the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in patients aged 45 years or younger, and it was statistically significant in patients with chronic viral hepatitis and alcoholic fatty liver disease (P < .043). The best APRI cut-off value for detecting advanced hepatic fibrosis was 0.4, with a sensitivity and specificity of 75.8% and 73.5%, respectively, in the community-based cohort. The APRI showed balanced sensitivity and specificity across all age groups, whereas the other metrics showed low sensitivity in those aged <45 and low specificity in those >65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The APRI showed better sensitivity and negative predictive value than the Fibrosis-4 index and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score in community-based populations with mixed etiology, and, thus, can be performed as the primary test in young adults (age, ≤45 y).

Enhanced liver Fibrosis® test predicts liver-related outcomes in the general population

Background & Aims

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis® (ELF) test exhibits good discriminative performance in detecting advanced liver fibrosis and in predicting liver-related outcomes in patients with specific liver diseases, but large population-based studies are missing. We analysed the predictive performance of the ELF test in a general population cohort.

Methods

Data were sourced from the Health 2000 study, a Finnish population-based health examination survey conducted in 2000-2001. Subjects with baseline liver disease were excluded. The ELF test was performed on blood samples collected at baseline. Data were linked with national healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, cancer, and death).

Results

The cohort comprised 6,040 individuals (mean age 52.7. 45.6% men) with 67 liver-related outcomes during a median 13.1-year follow-up. ELF predicted liver outcomes (unadjusted hazards ratio 2.70, 95% CI 2.16-3.38). with 5- and 10-year AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.91) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79) by competing-risk methodology. The 10-year risks for liver outcomes increased from 0.5% at ELF <9.8 to 7.1% at ELF ≥11.3, being higher among men than women at any given ELF level. Among individuals with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, diabetes, or alanine aminotransferase >40 U/L. Five-year AUCs for ELF were 0.85, 0.87, and 0.88, respectively. The predictive ability of the ELF test decreased with time: the 10-year AUCs were 0.78, 0.69, and 0.82, respectively.

Conclusions

The ELF test shows good discriminative performance in predicting liver-related outcomes in a large general population cohort and appears particularly useful for predicting 5-year outcomes in persons with risk factors.

Impact and implications

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test exhibits good performance for predicting liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, liver cancer, or liver-related death) in the general population, especially in those with risk factors.

Remodeling the hepatic fibrotic microenvironment with emerging nanotherapeutics: a comprehensive review

Liver fibrosis could be the last hope for treating liver cancer and remodeling of the hepatic microenvironment has emerged as a strategy to promote the ablation of liver fibrosis. In recent years, especially with the rapid development of nanomedicine, hepatic microenvironment therapy has been widely researched in studies concerning liver cancer and fibrosis. In this comprehensive review, we summarized recent advances in nano therapy-based remodeling of the hepatic microenvironment. Firstly, we discussed novel strategies for regulatory immune suppression caused by capillarization of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSECs) and macrophage polarization. Furthermore, metabolic reprogramming and extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition are caused by the activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSCs). In addition, recent advances in ROS, hypoxia, and impaired vascular remodeling in the hepatic fibrotic microenvironment due to ECM deposition have also been summarized. Finally, emerging nanotherapeutic approaches based on correlated signals were discussed in this review. We have proposed novel strategies such as engineered nanotherapeutics targeting antigen-presenting cells (APCs) or direct targeting T cells in liver fibrotic immunotherapy to be used in preventing liver fibrosis. In summary, this comprehensive review illustrated the opportunities in drug targeting and nanomedicine, and the current challenges to be addressed.

Association of liver fibrosis with cognitive test performance and brain imaging parameters in the UK Biobank study

INTRODUCTION

We hypothesized that liver fibrosis is associated with worse cognitive performance and corresponding brain imaging changes.

METHODS

We examined the association of liver fibrosis with cognition and brain imaging parameters in the UK Biobank study. Liver fibrosis was assessed using the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score. The primary cognitive outcome was the digit symbol substitution test (DSST); secondary outcomes were additional executive function/processing speed and memory tests. Imaging outcomes were hippocampal, total brain, and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes.

RESULTS

We included 105,313 participants with cognitive test data, and 41,982 with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In adjusted models, liver fibrosis was associated with worse performance on the DSST and tests of executive function but not memory. Liver fibrosis was associated with lower hippocampal and total brain volumes, without compelling association with WMH volume.

DISCUSSION

Liver fibrosis is associated with worse performance on select cognitive tests and lower hippocampal and total brain volumes.

HIGHLIGHTS

It is increasingly recognized that chronic liver conditions impact brain health. We performed an analysis of data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Liver fibrosis was associated with worse performance on executive function tests. Liver fibrosis was not associated with memory impairment. Liver fibrosis was associated with lower hippocampal and total brain volumes.

Environmental exposures are important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in African American adults

Background & Aims

The prevalence and aetiology of liver fibrosis vary over time and impact racial/ethnic groups unevenly. This study measured time trends and identified factors associated with advanced liver fibrosis in the United States.

Methods

Standardised methods were used to analyse data on 47,422 participants (≥20 years old) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018). Advanced liver fibrosis was defined as Fibrosis-4 ≥2.67 and/or Forns index ≥6.9 and elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Results

The estimated number of people with advanced liver fibrosis increased from 1.3 million (95% CI 0.8-1.9) to 3.5 million (95% CI 2.8-4.2), a nearly threefold increase. Prevalence was higher in non-Hispanic Black and Mexican American persons than in non-Hispanic White persons. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, cadmium was an independent risk factor in all racial/ethnic groups. Smoking and current excessive alcohol use were risk factors in most. Importantly, compared with non-Hispanic White persons, non-Hispanic Black persons had a distinctive set of risk factors that included poverty (odds ratio [OR] 2.09; 95% CI 1.44-3.03) and susceptibility to lead exposure (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.95-5.43) but did not include diabetes (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.61-1.27; p =0.52). Non-Hispanic Black persons were more likely to have high exposure to lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls, and poverty than non-Hispanic White persons.

Conclusions

The number of people with advanced liver fibrosis has increased, creating a need to expand the liver care workforce. The risk factors for advanced fibrosis vary by race/ethnicity. These differences provide useful information for designing screening programmes. Poverty and toxic exposures were associated with the high prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons and need to be addressed.

Impact and Implications

Because liver disease often produces few warning signs, simple and inexpensive screening tests that can be performed by non-specialists are needed to allow timely diagnosis and linkage to care. This study shows that non-Hispanic Black persons have a distinctive set of risk factors that need to be taken into account when designing liver disease screening programs. Exposure to exogenous toxins may be especially important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons.

Time to focus on chronic liver diseases in the community: A review of primary care hepatology tools, pathways of care and reimbursement mechanisms

Addressing primary care's low confidence in detecting and managing chronic liver disease is becoming increasingly important owing to the escalating prevalence of its common lifestyle-related metabolic risk factors - obesity, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption. Whilst liver blood testing is frequently carried out in the management of long-term conditions, its interpretation is not typically focused on specific liver disease risk. Educational steps for primary care should outline how liver fibrosis is the flag of pathological concern, encourage use of pragmatic algorithms such as fibrosis-4 index to differentiate between those requiring referral for further fibrosis risk assessment and those who can be managed in the community, and emphasise that isolated minor liver function test abnormalities are unreliable for estimating the risk of fibrosis progression. Measures to increase primary care's interest and engagement should make use of existing frameworks for the management of long-term conditions, so that liver disease is considered alongside other metabolic disorders, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease etc. Selling points when considering the required investment in developing local fibrosis assessment pathways include reduced repeat testing of minor abnormalities and improved secondary care referrals, plus improvements in the patient's journey through long-term multimorbidity care. A focus on improving chronic liver disease is likely to have wide-ranging benefits across co-existing metabolic disorders, particularly when pathways are aligned with community lifestyle support services. The important message for primary care is to increase the value of existing monitoring rather than to generate more work.

Longitudinal changes in fibrosis markers are associated with risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Currently, there is no consistent information on the course of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score changes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or their association with subsequent risk of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association between longitudinal changes in FIB-4 and subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint of cirrhosis and HCC in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with NAFLD seen in 130 Veterans Administration hospitals between 1/1/2004-12/31/2008, with follow-up through to 12/31/2018. We calculated FIB-4 longitudinally and categorized patients based on risk of advanced fibrosis (low-risk FIB-4 <1.45, indeterminate-risk FIB-4 1.45-2.67, and high-risk FIB-4 >2.67). We used landmark Fine-Gray competing risks models to determine the effects of change in FIB-4 between NAFLD diagnosis date and 3-year landmark time on the subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint.

RESULTS

Among the 202,319 patients with NAFLD in the 3-year landmark analysis, 473 progressed to HCC at an incidence rate of 0.28 per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% CI 0.26-0.30). The incidence rate of the composite endpoint was 1.31 per 1,000 PY (95% CI 1.25-1.37). At baseline, 74.7%, 21.4%, and 3.8% of patients had a low, indeterminate, and high FIB-4, respectively. Compared to patients who were at stable low FIB-4 at both time points, the risk of HCC and that of the composite endpoint was higher for all other subgroups with the highest risk in patients with persistently high FIB-4 (HCC adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio 57.7, 95% CI 40.5-82.2 and composite endpoint hazard ratio 28.6, 95% CI 24.6-33.2).

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal changes in FIB-4 were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Tools to stratify the risk of HCC development in patients with NAFLD are currently lacking. The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score is a widely available non-invasive test for liver fibrosis, a primary determinant of the development of cirrhosis and HCC. In a large retrospective cohort of patients with NAFLD, we found that serial changes in FIB-4 over time were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. Integrating serial measurements of non-invasive tests for fibrosis into the care pathway for patients with NAFLD could help tailor HCC risk prevention.

Expert Panel Consensus on Clinical Assertion Statements Describing Noninvasive Tools for Diagnosing Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

GOALS AND BACKGROUND

A panel of 9 experts in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis gathered to assess multiple components of the diagnostic process.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Clinical Assertion Statements covered screening of patients with type 2 diabetes for high-risk nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, which-if any-noninvasive tests could determine whether to delay or defer biopsy, whether primary care providers and endocrinologists should routinely calculate Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease or those at risk for it, optimal noninvasive tests to stage fibrosis, the need to consider fibrosis in patients with normal transaminase levels, periodic monitoring for progressive fibrosis, whether patients should undergo biopsy before pharmacotherapy, and the clinical utility of genetic testing.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Evidence was presented to support or refute each Clinical Assertion Statement; the panel voted on the nature of the evidence, level of support, and level of agreement with each Statement. Panel level of agreement and rationale of each Clinical Assertion Statement are reported here.