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Manafe N, Ismael-Mulungo H, Ponda F, Dos Santos PF, Mandlate F, Cumbe VFJ, Mocumbi AO, Oliveira Martins MR. Prevalence and associated factors of common mental disorders among internally displaced people by armed conflict in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique: a cross-sectional community-based study. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1371598. [PMID: 38689772 PMCID: PMC11058794 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1371598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2024] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Humanitarian emergencies are a major global health challenge with the potential to have a profound impact on people's mental and psychological health. Displacement is a traumatic event that disrupts families and affects physical and psychological health at all ages. A person may endure or witness a traumatic incident, such as being exposed to war, and, as a result, develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). There is a lack of information about post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety disorder in low and middle-income countries in humanitarian emergency contexts such as Mozambique. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of PTSD, depression, and anxiety, and associated factors among armed conflict survivors in Cabo Delgado, north region of Mozambique in 2023. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted between January and April 2023 among 750 participants, who were selected by convenience. A face-to-face interview used the Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist (PC-PTSD-5) to evaluate PTSD, the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) to evaluate anxiety and the Patient Health Questionnaire - Mozambique (PHQ-9 MZ) to evaluate depression. The association between PTSD and demographic and psychosocial characteristics was analyzed using bivariate and multivariable binary logistic regression. We used a 5% significance level. Results The three mental disorders assessed were highly prevalent in our sample with 74.3% PTSD, 63.8% depression, and 40.0% anxiety. The chance of developing PTSD was higher in females (AOR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.50-3.51), in patients with depression symptoms (AOR = 8.27, 95% CI = 4.97-13.74) and anxiety symptoms (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 0.84-2.50). Conclusion This study reported that the prevalence of PTSD, depression, and anxiety were high. Patients having depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and being female are more at risk of developing PTSD. There is a need to integrate screening for common mental disorders in the context of humanitarian emergencies and its adapted integration of psychosocial interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naisa Manafe
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Maputo, Mozambique
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | | - Fábio Ponda
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Maputo, Mozambique
| | | | - Flávio Mandlate
- Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Vasco F. J. Cumbe
- Mental Health Department, Ministry of Health, Provincial Health Directorate of Sofala, Beira, Mozambique
| | - Ana Olga Mocumbi
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Maputo, Mozambique
- Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Maria R. Oliveira Martins
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
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Guo Y, Gao Y, He C, Zhu Y, Zhou L, Kan H, Chen R. Short-term high temperature may increase the incidence risk of collective conflicts: A case-crossover study in the Greater Middle East. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 915:170105. [PMID: 38232834 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2023] [Revised: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Violent conflict is a formidable global challenge, with long-lasting impacts on individual health and society security. There has been compelling evidence that heat can increase aggression intention on the individual level. However, little is known about the short-term relationship between ambient temperature and collective violent conflicts, especially in less developed regions. METHOD We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) among 247,773 violent conflicts from 29 countries or regions in the Greater Middle East, between 1997 and 2021. Potential modification effects of economic status and climate conditions were explored by stratified analyses. Negative control and sensitivity analyses were also performed to test the robustness of our model. RESULTS We observed significant associations between higher temperature and the onset of five categories of violent conflicts. The effects generally occurred within the first several days after exposure. The incidence risks of battles, violence against civilians, explosions/remote violence, protests and riots were 1.60 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.31-1.95], 1.82 (95 % CI: 1.37-2.42), 1.24 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.41), 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.09-1.24) and 1.54 (95 % CI: 1.22-1.95) when comparing extreme high temperatures to minimum-risk temperatures. The associations were generally more prominent in areas with lower economic levels and associations in regions of the continental climate are also stronger. CONCLUSIONS Our finding reveals novel and concrete evidence that short-term high temperature could increase the risk of multiple forms of violent conflict in the Greater Middle East and provides new insights into the potential short-term mechanisms under the heat-collective violence association.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yichen Guo
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yixiang Zhu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lu Zhou
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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Araos M, Wolfe M. The climate missing: identifying bodies and preventing disappearances linked to climate change. BMJ Glob Health 2024; 9:e014767. [PMID: 38388161 PMCID: PMC10884247 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Malcolm Araos
- Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
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Abdi AH, Mohamed AA, Sugow MO. Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African countries. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:118468-118482. [PMID: 37917256 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-30574-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/04/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has been linked to water scarcity, land degradation, and food insecurity, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new conflicts in countries with weak political institutions. Despite the critical need for effective conflict management and climate adaptation measures, prior studies failed to emphasize the role climate change plays in civil clashes in conflict-affected countries. In this research, we undertake a comprehensive investigation of the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts in 14 selected SSA nations between 1996 and 2016. The study embraces contemporary heterogeneous panel techniques to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually appear in panel data estimates. We employed second-generation unit root tests, such as CADF and CIPS, to determine the order of integration of the variables. In addition, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed the long-run relationship among the variables. Although temperatures were insignificant, the long-run results of the pooled mean group (PMG) approach suggested that civil conflicts decline when precipitation increases. In addition, the outcomes indicate that environmental degradation and population growth are long-run aggravators of social unrest. The short-run results suggest that rising temperatures exacerbate civil conflicts in the selected SSA countries. However, the study found that government stability lessens internal conflicts in the short run, but not in the long run. The DOLS technique validated the long-run outcomes of the PMG technique. Based on the findings of the study, conflict-prone SSA countries should integrate climate change adaptation and conflict prevention strategies, implement sustainable water resource management practices, and endorse climate-related conflict resolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdikafi Hassan Abdi
- Institute of Climate and Environment, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia.
- Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia.
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Xie X, Jiang D, Hao M, Ding F. Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0286404. [PMID: 37782655 PMCID: PMC10545108 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 10/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered frequent outbreaks of armed conflict since the end of the Cold War. Although several efforts have been made to understand the underlying causes of armed conflict and establish an early warning mechanism, there is still a lack of a comprehensive assessment approach to model the incidence risk of armed conflict well. Based on a large database of armed conflict events and related spatial datasets covering the period 2000-2019, this study uses a boosted regression tree (BRT) approach to model the spatiotemporal distribution of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluation of accuracy indicates that the simulated models obtain high performance with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) mean value of 0.937 and an area under the precision recall curves (PR-AUC) mean value of 0.891. The result of the relative contribution indicates that the background context factors (i.e., social welfare and the political system) are the main driving factors of armed conflict risk, with a mean relative contribution of 92.599%. By comparison, the climate change-related variables have relatively little effect on armed conflict risk, accounting for only 7.401% of the total. These results provide novel insight into modelling the incidence risk of armed conflict, which may help implement interventions to prevent and minimize the harm of armed conflict.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolan Xie
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Dong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources, Beijing, China
| | - Mengmeng Hao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Fangyu Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Rainho A, Ferreira DF, Makori B, Bartonjo M, Repas-Gonçalves M, Kirakou S, Maghuwa F, Webala PW, Tomé R. Guild Vertical Stratification and Drivers of Bat Foraging in a Semi-Arid Tropical Region, Kenya. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:1116. [PMID: 37627000 PMCID: PMC10452385 DOI: 10.3390/biology12081116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023]
Abstract
Africa faces significant challenges in reconciling economic and social development while preserving its natural resources. Little is known about the diverse bat community on the continent, particularly in drier ecosystems. A better understanding of the bat community will help improve and inform the management of these ecosystems. Our study aimed to provide detailed information on the main drivers of bat richness and activity at three different heights above the ground in a semi-arid region of Kenya. We assessed how bat activity varied with space and height using acoustic sampling and complementary methods. We sampled 48 sites at ground level and two sites on meteorological masts at 20 m and 35 m above the ground. We recorded more than 20 bat species, including one species of concern for conservation. Our models showed that the use of space varies with bat guild, creating trade-offs in the variables that affect their activity. Low-flying bat species are mostly associated with habitat variables, whereas high-flying species are more dependent on weather conditions. Our study highlights the richness of bat assemblages in semi-arid environments and emphasizes the need for management measures to protect bat diversity in the face of habitat degradation caused by climate change, land management, and development projects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Rainho
- cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes & CHANGE—Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Diogo F. Ferreira
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, University of Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Beryl Makori
- The Pangolin Project, P.O. Box 15156, Langata 00509, Kenya
| | - Michael Bartonjo
- Mammalogy Section, National Museums of Kenya, P.O. Box 40658, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
| | | | - Stanley Kirakou
- Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Kenya Electricity Generating Company, P.O. Box 47936, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
| | - Florah Maghuwa
- Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Kenya Electricity Generating Company, P.O. Box 47936, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
| | - Paul W. Webala
- Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Maasai Mara University, P.O. Box 861, Narok 20500, Kenya
| | - Ricardo Tomé
- The Biodiversity Consultancy, 3E King’s Parade, Cambridge CB2 1SJ, UK
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Sampath V, Shalakhti O, Veidis E, Efobi JAI, Shamji MH, Agache I, Skevaki C, Renz H, Nadeau KC. Acute and chronic impacts of heat stress on planetary health. Allergy 2023; 78:2109-2120. [PMID: 36883412 DOI: 10.1111/all.15702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/02/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves are increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration causing significant heat stress in all living organisms. Heat stress has multiple negative effects on plants affecting photosynthesis, respiration, growth, development, and reproduction. It also impacts animals leading to physiological and behavioral alterations, such as reduced caloric intake, increased water intake, and decreased reproduction and growth. In humans, epidemiological studies have shown that heat waves are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. There are many biological effects of heat stress (structural changes, enzyme function disruption, damage through reactive oxygen or nitrogen species). While plants and animals can mitigate some of these effects through adaptive mechanisms such as the generation of heat shock proteins, antioxidants, stress granules, and others, these mechanisms may likely be inadequate with further global warming. This review summarizes the effects of heat stress on plants and animals and the adaptative mechanisms that have evolved to counteract this stress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanitha Sampath
- Sean N. Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research at Stanford University, California, Stanford, USA
| | - Omar Shalakhti
- Sean N. Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research at Stanford University, California, Stanford, USA
| | - Erika Veidis
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, California, Stanford, USA
| | - Jo Ann Ifeoma Efobi
- Sean N. Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research at Stanford University, California, Stanford, USA
| | - Mohamed H Shamji
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
- NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Ioana Agache
- Faculty of Medicine, Transylvania University, Brasov, Romania
| | - Chrysanthi Skevaki
- Institute of Laboratory Medicine, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
- German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Universities of Giessen and Marburg Lung Center (UGMLC), Philipps University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Harald Renz
- Institute of Laboratory Medicine, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
- German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Universities of Giessen and Marburg Lung Center (UGMLC), Philipps University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
- Department of Clinical Immunology and Allergology, Sechenov University, Moscow, Russia
- Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College (KCMUCo), Moshi, Tanzania
| | - Kari C Nadeau
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Delacrétaz N, Lanz B, Delju AH, Piguet E, Rebetez M. Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye. POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT 2023; 45:12. [PMID: 37350772 PMCID: PMC10281901 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00423-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023]
Abstract
Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Bruno Lanz
- University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland
- ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
- Rue A.-L. Breguet 2, CH-2000 Neuchâtel, Switzerland
| | - Amir H. Delju
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Martine Rebetez
- University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland
- WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürich, Switzerland
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Amberg F, Chansa C, Niangaly H, Sankoh O, De Allegri M. Examining the relationship between armed conflict and coverage of maternal and child health services in 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: a geospatial analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e843-e853. [PMID: 37202021 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00152-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Armed conflict is on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa and affects public infrastructures, including health systems, although evidence on population health is sparse. We aimed to establish how these disruptions ultimately affect health service coverage. METHODS We geospatially matched Demographic and Health Survey data with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset, covering 35 countries for the period from 1990 to 2020. We relied on linear probability models with fixed effects to capture the effect of nearby armed conflict (within 50 km of the survey cluster) on four service coverage indicators along the continuum of maternal and child health care. We also investigated effect heterogeneity by varying conflict intensity and duration, and sociodemographic status. FINDINGS The estimated coefficients represent the decrease in the probability (in percentage points) of the child or their mother being covered by the respective health service following deadly conflicts within 50 km. Any nearby armed conflict was associated with reduced coverage for all examined health services, with the exception of early antenatal care: early antenatal care (-0·5 percentage points, 95% CI -1·1 to 0·1), facility-based delivery (-2·0, -2·5 to -1·4), timely childhood vaccination (-2·5, -3·1 to -1·9), and treatment of common childhood illnesses (-2·5, -3·5 to -1·4). For all four health services, the negative effects increased for high-intensity conflicts and were significant throughout. When examining conflict duration, we did not find negative effects on the treatment of common childhood illnesses in prolonged conflicts. The analysis on effect heterogeneity revealed that, except for timely childhood vaccination, the negative effects of armed conflict on health service coverage were more pronounced in urban settings. INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that health service coverage is significantly affected by contemporaneous conflict, but health systems can adapt to provide routine services, such as child curative services, in situations of prolonged conflict. Our analysis underlines the importance of studying health service coverage during conflict both at the finest possible scales and across different indicators, pointing at the need for differential policy interventions. FUNDING None. TRANSLATIONS For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Felix Amberg
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital and Medical Faculty, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Collins Chansa
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital and Medical Faculty, Heidelberg, Germany; Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice, World Bank Group, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Hamidou Niangaly
- Department of Medical and Community Studies and Research, National Institute of Public Health, Bamako, Mali
| | - Osman Sankoh
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital and Medical Faculty, Heidelberg, Germany; Statistics Sierra Leone, Freetown, Sierra Leone; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Manuela De Allegri
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital and Medical Faculty, Heidelberg, Germany
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Pickson RB, Gui P, Chen A, Boateng E. Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:64617-64636. [PMID: 37071352 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-26859-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Peng Gui
- Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
| | - Ai Chen
- Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
| | - Elliot Boateng
- Department of Economics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
- Centre for African Research, Engagement and Partnerships (CARE-P), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Australia
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Fattorini N, Lovari S, Franceschi S, Chiatante G, Brunetti C, Baruzzi C, Ferretti F. Animal conflicts escalate in a warmer world. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 871:161789. [PMID: 36716887 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2022] [Revised: 12/29/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The potential for climate change to affect animal behaviour is widely recognized, yet its possible consequences on aggressiveness are still unclear. If warming and drought limit the availability of food resources, climate change may elicit an increase of intraspecific conflicts stemming from resource competition. By measuring aggressivity indices in a group-living, herbivorous mammal (the Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata) in two sites differing in habitat quality, and coupling them with estimates of plant productivity, we investigated whether harsh climatic conditions accumulated during the growing season influenced agonistic contests at feeding via vegetation-mediated effects, and their interaction with the site-specific habitat quality. We focused on females, which exhibit intra-group contest competition to access nutritious food patches. Accounting for confounding variables, we found that (1) the aggression rate between foraging individuals increased with the warming accumulated over previous weeks; (2) the probability to deliver more aggressive behaviour patterns toward contestants increased with decreasing rainfall recorded in previous weeks; (3) the effects of cumulative warming and drought on aggressivity indices occurred at time windows spanning 15-30 days, matching those found on vegetation productivity; (4) the effects of unfavourable climatic conditions via vegetation growth on aggressivity were independent of the site-specific habitat quality. Simulations conducted on our model species predict a ~50 % increase in aggression rate following the warming projected over the next 60 years. Where primary productivity will be impacted by warming and drought, our findings suggest that the anticipated climate change scenarios may trigger bottom-up consequences on intraspecific animal conflicts. This study opens the doors for a better understanding of the multifactorial origin of aggression in group-living foragers, emphasising how the escalation of agonistic contests could emerge as a novel response of animal societies to ongoing global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Niccolò Fattorini
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, 53100 Siena, Italy; NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, 90133 Palermo, Italy.
| | - Sandro Lovari
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, 53100 Siena, Italy; Maremma Natural History Museum, Strada Corsini 5, 58100 Grosseto, Italy
| | - Sara Franceschi
- Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena, Piazza San Francesco 8, 53100 Siena, Italy
| | - Gianpasquale Chiatante
- NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, 90133 Palermo, Italy; Department of Biology, University of Florence, Via Madonna del Piano 6, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
| | - Claudia Brunetti
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, 53100 Siena, Italy
| | - Carolina Baruzzi
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, 53100 Siena, Italy; Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, North Florida Research and Education Center, University of Florida, 155 Research Rd., Quincy, FL 32351, USA
| | - Francesco Ferretti
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, 53100 Siena, Italy; NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, 90133 Palermo, Italy
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Fan W, Zlatnik MG. Climate Change and Pregnancy: Risks, Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience. Obstet Gynecol Surv 2023; 78:223-236. [PMID: 37043299 PMCID: PMC10508966 DOI: 10.1097/ogx.0000000000001116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
Importance Climate change is affecting the earth, resulting in more extreme temperatures and weather, rising sea levels, more frequent natural disasters, and displacement of populations of plants and animals, including people and insects. These changes affect food and housing security, vector-borne illnesses, and access to clean air and water, all of which influence human health. Evidence and Results There are a number of adverse health outcomes linked to heat, air pollution from wildfires, stress from natural disasters, and other elements of climate change. Pregnant people are especially vulnerable to the health harms resulting from climate change, namely, preterm birth, small for gestational age, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and other adverse reproductive health and birth outcomes. Strategies to minimize these harms include mitigation and adaptation. Conclusions and Relevance Physicians are in a unique position to protect the health of pregnant persons and children by advocating for policy changes that address climate change and providing clinical recommendations for patients to protect themselves from the health impacts of climate hazards.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Marya G Zlatnik
- Professor, Maternal Fetal Medicine, Program on Reproductive Health and the Environment, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, Western States Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
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13
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Lynott D, Corker K, Connell L, O'Brien K. The effects of temperature on prosocial and antisocial behaviour: A review and meta-analysis. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 2023. [PMID: 36794795 DOI: 10.1111/bjso.12626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/17/2023]
Abstract
Research from the social sciences suggests an association between higher temperatures and increases in antisocial behaviours, including aggressive, violent, or sabotaging behaviours, and represents a heat-facilitates-aggression perspective. More recently, studies have shown that higher temperature experiences may also be linked to increases in prosocial behaviours, such as altruistic, sharing, or cooperative behaviours, representing a warmth-primes-prosociality view. However, across both literatures, there have been inconsistent findings and failures to replicate key theoretical predictions, leaving the status of temperature-behaviour links unclear. Here we review the literature and conduct meta-analyses of available empirical studies that have either prosocial (e.g., monetary reward, gift giving, helping behaviour) or antisocial (self-rewarding, retaliation, sabotaging behaviour) behavioural outcome variables, with temperature as an independent variable. In an omnibus multivariate analysis (total N = 4577) with 80 effect sizes, we found that there was no reliable effect of temperature on the behavioural outcome measured. Further, we find little support for either the warmth-primes-prosociality view or the heat-facilitates-aggression view. There were no reliable effects if we consider separately the type of behavioural outcome (prosocial or antisocial), different types of temperature experience (haptic or ambient), or potential interactions with the experimental social context (positive, neutral, or negative). We discuss how these findings affect the status of existing theoretical perspectives and provide specific suggestions advancing research in this area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dermot Lynott
- Department of Psychology, Maynooth University, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland.,Department of Psychology, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Katherine Corker
- Department of Psychology, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, Michigan, USA
| | - Louise Connell
- Department of Psychology, Maynooth University, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland.,Department of Psychology, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Kerry O'Brien
- School of Social Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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14
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Zhang Z, Ding J, Zhao W, Liu Y, Pereira P. The impact of the armed conflict in Afghanistan on vegetation dynamics. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:159138. [PMID: 36191719 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Armed conflicts disturb the environment and impair land productivity. Afghanistan has been submerged in conflict for >20 years, affecting the environment dramatically. In this study, we used the Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) to investigate vegetation's spatial and temporal changes and the potential underpinned mechanisms. We found a 16.44 % increase in NDVI in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2021. The average NDVI growth rate was 11.33 % (within 5 km distance from the armed conflict), higher in the conflict group than in the non-conflict group. People migration may have reduced the human impacts on the environment. The relative contribution of armed conflict to vegetation growth was 3.17 %. Our results showed that the vegetation in Afghanistan increased, confirming the idea that depopulation increase greenness. Despite the reduced variance explained by the war (R2 values around 0.3), our study provides empirical evidence on the linkages between the war and vegetation change in Afghanistan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhijie Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Zhuhai Branch of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519087, China
| | - Jingyi Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Wenwu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Yue Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Paulo Pereira
- Environmental Management Center, Mykolas Romeris University, Ateities g. 20, 08303 Vilnius, Lithuania
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15
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Olff M. Crises in the Anthropocene. Eur J Psychotraumatol 2023; 14:2170818. [PMID: 37052094 PMCID: PMC9930782 DOI: 10.1080/20008066.2023.2170818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/12/2023] Open
Abstract
2022 was a year of crises, not just one but multiple intersecting crises that caused traumatic stress in billions of people worldwide. COVID-19 is still not over. New wars have started, and the climate change impact is bigger than ever. Will the Anthropocene be an era of continued crises? This past year the European Journal of Psychotraumatology (EJPT) has again tried to contribute to how to prevent or treat the consequences of these major crises as well as other events and we will continue to do so the year to come. For instance, we will have special issues or collections addressing these big issues, such as climate change and traumatic stress, or early intervention after trauma or in times of conflict. In this editorial, we also present the past year's excellent journal metrics regarding reach, impact, and quality and the ESTSS EJPT award finalists for best paper of 2022 and look forward to 2023.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miranda Olff
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam Neuroscience, & Amsterdam Public Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- ARQ National Psychotrauma Centre, Diemen, Netherlands
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16
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Xie X, Hao M, Ding F, Helman D, Scheffran J, Wang Q, Ge Q, Jiang D. Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia. iScience 2022; 25:105258. [PMID: 36439983 PMCID: PMC9684034 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2022] [Revised: 09/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolan Xie
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Mengmeng Hao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Fangyu Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - David Helman
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (Soil & Water), The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University, Rehovot 7610001, Israel
- Advanced School for Environmental Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91905, Israel
| | - Jürgen Scheffran
- Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20144, Germany
| | - Qian Wang
- Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13QR, UK
| | - Quansheng Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Dong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources, Beijing 100101, China
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17
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Coulibaly TY, Managi S. Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level. Sci Rep 2022; 12:18162. [PMID: 36307515 PMCID: PMC9616923 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistical significance of the linkages between georeferenced conflicts and rainfall variabilities at the monthly and annual levels with panel data analyses from 1989 to 2020. We find that a 10 percent increase in monthly rainfall decreases the risk of conflict incidence by 0.0298 percent, but annual rainfall variability is not statistically linked to conflict outbreaks. These statistically significant disparities result from the aggregation of data dispersion and the disregard for the timing of the impact of rainfall on conflicts. These findings highlight the importance of information on monthly rainfall variation when estimating the impact of rainfall on conflicts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Yerema Coulibaly
- grid.177174.30000 0001 2242 4849Urban Institute & Department of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-Ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395 Japan
| | - Shunsuke Managi
- grid.177174.30000 0001 2242 4849Urban Institute & Department of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-Ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395 Japan
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18
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Peng J, Zhan Z. Extreme climate and crime: Empirical evidence based on 129 prefecture-level cities in China. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.1028485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is having profound effects on natural and socio-economic systems, especially via extreme climate events. Using panel data from 129 prefectural-level cities in China from 2013 to 2019, this paper explores the effects of extreme climate on crime rates based on a climate index and manual collection of crime data. The results showed that extreme climate has a significant positive effect on crime rates, increasing by 0.035% for every 1% increase in the extreme climate index. This occurs through two mechanistic pathways: reduced agricultural output and lower employment income. The heterogeneity analysis shows that extreme climate has a greater impact on crime rates in eastern areas which are economically developed and have high levels of immigration. This study provides new perspectives on the impact of extreme climate on the economy and society, in which governments can actively participate in climate governance through environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and technological innovation to reduce crime rates by reducing the occurrence of extreme climate.
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19
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Stechemesser A, Levermann A, Wenz L. Temperature impacts on hate speech online: evidence from 4 billion geolocated tweets from the USA. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e714-e725. [PMID: 36087602 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00173-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Revised: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A link between weather and aggression in the offline world has been established across a variety of societal settings. Simultaneously, the rapid digitalisation of nearly every aspect of everyday life has led to a high frequency of interpersonal conflicts online. Hate speech online has become a prevalent problem that has been shown to aggravate mental health conditions, especially among young people and marginalised groups. We examine the effect of temperature on the occurrence of hate speech on the social media platform Twitter and interpret the results in the context of the interlinkage between climate change, human behaviour, and mental health. METHODS In this quantitative empirical study, we used a supervised machine learning approach to identify hate speech in a dataset containing around 4 billion geolocated tweets from 773 cities across the USA between May 1, 2014 and May 1, 2020. We statistically evaluated the changes in daily hate tweets against changes in local temperature, isolating the temperature influence from confounding factors using binned panel-regression models. FINDINGS The prevalence of hate tweets was lowest at moderate temperatures (12 to 21°C) and marked increases in the number of hate tweets were observed at hotter and colder temperatures, reaching up to 12·5% (95% CI 8·0-16·5) for cold temperature extremes (-6 to -3°C) and up to 22·0% (95% CI 20·5-23·5) for hot temperature extremes (42 to 45°C). Outside of the moderate temperature range, the hate tweets also increased as a proportion of total tweeting activity. The quasi-quadratic shape of the temperature-hate tweet curve was robust across varying climate zones, income quartiles, religious and political beliefs, and both city-level and state-level aggregations. However, temperature ranges with the lowest prevalence of hate tweets were centred around the local temperature mean and the magnitude of the increases in hate tweets for hot and cold temperatures varied across the climate zones. INTERPRETATION Our results highlight hate speech online as a potential channel through which temperature alters interpersonal conflict and societal aggression. We provide empirical evidence that hot and cold temperatures can aggravate aggressive tendencies online. The prevalence of the results across climatic and socioeconomic subgroups points to limitations in the ability of humans to adapt to temperature extremes. FUNDING Volkswagen Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annika Stechemesser
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Anders Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Leonie Wenz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany.
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20
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Nicoletti A, Melde S, Guadagno L, Bilsborrow RE. Human mobility in the context of environmental and climate change: Recent data collection tools from the International Organization for Migration to address key methodological and conceptual issues. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/imig.13043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Susanne Melde
- Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC) IOM Berlin Germany
| | - Lorenzo Guadagno
- Environment and Climate Change Division (MECC) IOM Geneva Switzerland
| | - Richard E. Bilsborrow
- Carolina Population Center/Dept. of Geography University of North Carolina Chapel Hill North Carolina USA
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21
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Farooq MS, Uzair M, Raza A, Habib M, Xu Y, Yousuf M, Yang SH, Ramzan Khan M. Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 13:927535. [PMID: 35903229 PMCID: PMC9315450 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.927535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Shahbaz Farooq
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Uzair
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Ali Raza
- College of Agriculture, Oil Crops Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (FAFU), Fuzhou, China
| | - Madiha Habib
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Yinlong Xu
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China
| | | | - Seung Hwan Yang
- Department of Biotechnology, Chonnam National University, Yeosu, South Korea
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22
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Climate Security and Its Implications for East Asia. CLIMATE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/cli10070104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This study investigated the scientific progress of climate security studies through a literature review and discussed its risks in East Asia. Climate security refers to the protection of countries and societies from conflicts and riots caused by climate change. As climate change becomes more apparent, climate security has been vigorously debated in the international community. Climate security risks in East Asia, however, are not yet widely discussed. This literature review identified that climate change increases the risk of conflict not only through direct threats to people and societies from extreme weather events and natural disasters, but also indirectly through various pathways, such as shortages of water and other resources, outbreaks of climate migration, disruptions in food production, economic and social disturbances, and geopolitical changes. Considering the climate-conflict pathways identified by the literature review, East Asia may face (1) tensions caused by climate emigrants, (2) conflicts over loss of territories and fishery areas, (3) conflicts caused by water shortage, (4) instability caused by heavy rain and floods, and (5) geopolitical risks of rare earth sourcing, green industrial policies, and the Arctic. East Asian countries need to lower climate security risks in the region through cooperative international measures such as climate change mitigation, vulnerability reduction, and policy dialogue.
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23
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Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14137867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Escalating geopolitical factors are closely related to climate warming, but researchers have not fully considered this. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the interaction between geopolitical risk (GPR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in China. This paper uses the recently developed GPR index and a bootstrap Granger rolling-window estimation. Empirical results spanning different subsamples reveal a two-way causal relationship between GPR and CO2. GPR transforms energy consumption and economic activities through trade disputes, military deployments and energy issues, which have a complex impact on CO2 emissions. Oppositely, CO2 emissions affect GPR through changes in international cooperation and shaping of geopolitical systems. In view of these empirical results, we put forward several policy recommendations. The Chinese government can effectively consider GPR to control CO2 emissions by increasing green investment and signing environmental contracts. Enterprises must focus on research and development (R&D) and investment in new energy innovations. In addition, international organizations can be a useful tool for monitoring decarbonization policies and resolving conflicts between countries.
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24
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Assessment of Climate Models Performance and Associated Uncertainties in Rainfall Projection from CORDEX over the Eastern Nile Basin, Ethiopia. CLIMATE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/cli10070095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
The adverse impact of climate change on different regionally important sectors such as agriculture and hydropower is a serious concern and is currently at the epicentre of global interest. Despite the extensive efforts to project the future climate and assess its potential impact, it is surrounded by uncertainties. This study aimed to assess climate models’ performance and associated uncertainties in rainfall projection over the eastern Nile basin, Ethiopia. Seventeen climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and their four ensemble models were evaluated in terms of their historical prediction performance (1986–2005) and future simulation skill (2006–2016) at rainfall station (point location), grid-scale (0.44° × 0.44°) and basin scale. Station-based and spatially interpolated observed rainfall data were used as a reference during climate model performance evaluation. In addition, CRU data was used as an alternative reference data to check the effect of the reference data source on the climate models evaluation process. As the results showed, climate models have a large discrepancy in their projected rainfall and hence prior evaluation of their performance is necessary. For instance, the bias in historical mean annual rainfall averaged over the basin ranges from +760 mm (wet bias) to −582 mm (dry bias). The spatial pattern correlation (r) of climate models output and observed rainfall ranges from −0.1 to 0.7. The ensemble formed with selected (performance-based) member models outperforms the widely used multi-model ensemble in most of the evaluation metrics. This showed the need for reconsidering the widely used multi-model approach in most climate model-based studies. The use of CRU data as a reference resulted in a change in the magnitude of climate model bias. To conclude, each climate model has a certain degree of uncertainty in the rainfall projection, which potentially affects the studies on climate change and its impact (e.g., on water resources). Therefore, climate-related studies have to consider uncertainties in climate projections, which will help end-users (decision-makers) at least to be aware of the potential range of deviation in the future projected outcomes of interest.
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25
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Morris-Drake A, Kennedy P, Braga Goncalves I, Radford AN. Variation between species, populations, groups and individuals in the fitness consequences of out-group conflict. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2022; 377:20210148. [PMID: 35369741 PMCID: PMC8977661 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Out-group conflict is rife in the natural world, occurring from primates to ants. Traditionally, research on this aspect of sociality has focused on the interactions between groups and their conspecific rivals, investigating contest function and characteristics, which group members participate and what determines who wins. In recent years, however, there has been increasing interest in the consequences of out-group conflict. In this review, we first set the scene by outlining the fitness consequences that can arise immediately to contest participants, as well as a broader range of delayed, cumulative and third-party effects of out-group conflict on survival and reproductive success. For the majority of the review, we then focus on variation in these fitness consequences of out-group conflict, describing known examples both between species and between populations, groups and individuals of the same species. Throughout, we suggest possible reasons for the variation, provide examples from a diverse array of taxa, and suggest what is needed to advance this burgeoning area of social evolution. This article is part of the theme issue 'Intergroup conflict across taxa'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy Morris-Drake
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TQ, UK
| | - Patrick Kennedy
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TQ, UK
| | - Ines Braga Goncalves
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TQ, UK
| | - Andrew N. Radford
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TQ, UK
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26
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De Dreu CKW, Triki Z. Intergroup conflict: origins, dynamics and consequences across taxa. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2022; 377:20210134. [PMID: 35369751 PMCID: PMC8977662 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Although uniquely destructive and wasteful, intergroup conflict and warfare are not confined to humans. They are seen across a range of group-living species, from social insects, fishes and birds to mammals, including nonhuman primates. With its unique collection of theory, research and review contributions from biology, anthropology and economics, this theme issue provides novel insights into intergroup conflict across taxa. Here, we introduce and organize this theme issue on the origins and consequences of intergroup conflict. We provide a coherent framework by modelling intergroup conflicts as multi-level games of strategy in which individuals within groups cooperate to compete with (individuals in) other groups for scarce resources, such as territory, food, mating opportunities, power and influence. Within this framework, we identify cross-species mechanisms and consequences of (participating in) intergroup conflict. We conclude by highlighting crosscutting innovations in the study of intergroup conflict set forth by individual contributions. These include, among others, insights on how within-group heterogeneities and leadership relate to group conflict, how intergroup conflict shapes social organization and how climate change and environmental degradation transition intergroup relations from peaceful coexistence to violent conflict. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Intergroup conflict across taxa’.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carsten K W De Dreu
- Institute of Psychology, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands.,Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision Making, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Zegni Triki
- Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data. Nat Commun 2022; 13:2839. [PMID: 35595793 PMCID: PMC9123163 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30356-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here we adopt a quantitative modelling framework based on machine learning to infer potential causal linkages from high-frequency time-series data and simulate the risk of armed conflict worldwide from 2000–2015. Our results reveal that the risk of armed conflict is primarily influenced by stable background contexts with complex patterns, followed by climate deviations related covariates. The inferred patterns show that positive temperature deviations or precipitation extremes are associated with increased risk of armed conflict worldwide. Our findings indicate that a better understanding of climate-conflict linkages at the global scale enhances the spatiotemporal modelling capacity for the risk of armed conflict. Using machine learning, the authors reveal that stable background conditions explain most variation in armed conflict risk worldwide. Positive temperature deviations and precipitation extremes also increase the risk of conflict onset and incidence.
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Schon J, Koren O. Introducing AfroGrid, a unified framework for environmental conflict research in Africa. Sci Data 2022; 9:116. [PMID: 35351878 PMCID: PMC8964753 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01198-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, we present Afro-Grid: an integrated, disaggregated 0.5-degree grid-month dataset on conflict, environmental stress, and socioeconomic features in Africa covering 1989–2020, intended to propel research on these issues forward. Afro-Grid offers several important extensions for researchers and policymakers, including: (i) standardizing (using established methods) data sources on conflict, environmental stress, and socio economic factors across spatial and temporal scales; (ii) combining these data into a single, openly-available file, maximizing the accessibility of these data for researchers and policymakers regardless of their software background; and (iii) including NDVI and dual-series harmonized night lights series that have traditionally not been accessible to researchers without advanced computational expertise. Using a series of comparative regressions at the grid-month and grid-year levels, combined with reporting descriptive statistics and visualizations, we illustrate that this temporally and geographically disaggregated dataset provides valuable extensions for research related to the climate-conflict nexus and the role of socioeconomic features in shaping conflict trends, as well as for research and data-driven policy on development and conflict. Measurement(s) | Conflict • climate • Development | Technology Type(s) | Remote sensing and computational analysis | Factor Type(s) | NDVI • Temperature • Precipitation • SPEI • Nighttime light emissions • Population densities | Sample Characteristic - Organism | Homo sapiens | Sample Characteristic - Environment | geographic feature | Sample Characteristic - Location | Africa |
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29
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Vulnerability of Barley, Maize, and Wheat Yields to Variations in Growing Season Precipitation in Morocco. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/app12073407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Climate change continues to have adverse effects on crop yields in Africa and globally. In Morocco, rising temperatures and declining precipitation are having daunting effects on the vulnerability of crops. This study examines the vulnerability of barley, maize, and wheat to variations in growing season precipitation and socio-economic proxies of adaptive capacity such as literacy and poverty rates at both national and sub-national scales in Morocco. The methodology is based on a composite vulnerability index (vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). National and sub-national crop yield data used to compute the sensitivity index were downloaded from FAOSTAT and the global crop yield gaps Atlas. The mean annual growing season precipitation data at both the national and sub-national scales used to compute the exposure index were downloaded from the world bank climate portal. Proxy data for adaptive capacity in the form of literacy and poverty rates were downloaded from the world bank, figshare, and MPR archives. The CANESM model was used to validate the crop yield observations. The results show that wheat shows the lowest vulnerability and the highest adaptive capacity, while maize has the highest vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity. Sub-nationally, vulnerability indexes decrease northwards while adaptive capacity and normalized growing season precipitation increase northwards. Wheat also shows the lowest vulnerability and highest adaptive capacity and normalized growing season precipitation at each latitude northward. Model validation shows that the models used here reproduce most of the spatial patterns of the crops concerned. These findings have implications for climate change adaptation and climate policy in Morocco, as it becomes evident which of these most cultivated crops are more vulnerable nationally and spatially. These results have implications for future research, as it might be important to understand how these crops perform under growing season temperature as well as what future projections and yield gaps can be observed.
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Pickson RB, Boateng E. Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa? ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2022; 24:4387-4412. [PMID: 34276245 PMCID: PMC8271301 DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01621-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa's food security. We utilised the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa's food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Elliot Boateng
- Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia
- Centre for African Research, Engagement and Partnerships (CARE-P), University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia
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31
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The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa's Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts: Can Humanitarian Aid and Food Assistance Offset the Damage? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19010467. [PMID: 35010724 PMCID: PMC8744906 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2021] [Revised: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 12/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
This study analyzed the impact of climate-related natural disasters (droughts, floods, storms/rainstorms) on economic and social variables. As the Africa-specific empirical literature is limited, this study used panel data from 1961–2011 on Africa. The study used a panel data regression model analysis. The results showed that climate change-related natural disasters affected Africa’s economic growth, agriculture, and poverty and caused armed conflicts. Among the disasters, droughts are the main cause of negative impact, severely affecting crops such as maize and coffee and resulting in increased urban poverty and armed conflicts. In contrast, international aid has a positive effect but the impact is insignificant compared to the negative consequences of climate-related natural disasters. Cereal food assistance has a negative crowding-out effect on cereal production. International donors should review their interventions to support Africa’s adaptative capacity to disasters. Government efficiency has reduced the number of deaths, and this is an area that supports Africa’s adaptative efforts.
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Ray R, Bhattacharya A, Arora G, Bajaj K, Horton K, Chen S, Chakraborty S, Bazaz A. Extreme rainfall deficits were not the cause of recurring colonial era famines of southern Indian semi-arid regions. Sci Rep 2021; 11:17568. [PMID: 34475437 PMCID: PMC8413344 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-96826-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Using information contained in the eighteenth to twentieth century British administrative documents, preserved in the National Archives of India (NAI), we present a 218-year (1729–1947 AD) record of socioeconomic disruptions and human impacts (famines) associated with ‘rain failures’ that affected the semi-arid regions (SARs) of southern India. By mapping the southern Indian famine record onto long-term spatiotemporal measures of regional rainfall variability, we demonstrate that the SARs of southern India repeatedly experienced famines when annual rainfall reduced by ~ one standard deviation (1 SD), or more, from long-term averages. In other words, ‘rain failures’ listed in the colonial documents as causes of extreme socioeconomic disruptions, food shortages and human distress (famines) in the southern Indian SARs were fluctuations in precipitation well within the normal range of regional rainfall variability and not extreme rainfall deficits (≥ 3 SD). Our study demonstrates that extreme climate events were not necessary conditions for extreme socioeconomic disruptions and human impacts rendered by the colonial era famines in peninsular India. Based on our findings, we suggest that climate change risk assessement should consider the potential impacts of more frequent low-level anomalies (e.g. 1 SD) in drought prone semi-arid regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ranjini Ray
- Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS)-Bengaluru, Karnataka, 560080, India.,Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT)-Delhi, New Delhi, 110020, India
| | - Atreyee Bhattacharya
- Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS)-Bengaluru, Karnataka, 560080, India. .,University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA. .,Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT)-Delhi, New Delhi, 110020, India.
| | - Gaurav Arora
- Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT)-Delhi, New Delhi, 110020, India
| | - Kushank Bajaj
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Maharashtra, 411008, India.,University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T1Z4, USA
| | - Keyle Horton
- University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.,University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Shi Chen
- University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Supriyo Chakraborty
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Maharashtra, 411008, India
| | - Amir Bazaz
- Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS)-Bengaluru, Karnataka, 560080, India
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33
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Collard M, Carleton WC, Campbell DA. Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0253043. [PMID: 34329320 PMCID: PMC8323947 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Collard
- Department of Archaeology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada
| | - W. Christopher Carleton
- Extreme Events Research Group, The Science of Human History, and Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Institutes for Chemical Ecology, Jena, Germany
| | - David A. Campbell
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
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34
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Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su13137366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This article offers policymakers and researchers pragmatic and sustainable approaches to identify and mitigate conflict threats by looking beyond p-values and plausible instruments. We argue that predicting conflict successfully depends on the choice of algorithms, which, if chosen accurately, can reduce economic and social instabilities caused by post-conflict reconstruction. After collating data with variables linked to conflict, we used a grid level dataset of 5928 observations spanning 48 countries across sub-Saharan Africa to predict civil conflict. The goals of the study were to assess the performance of supervised classification machine learning (ML) algorithms in comparison with logistic model, assess the implication of selecting a specific performance metric on policy initiatives, and evaluate the value of interpretability of the selected model. After comparing class imbalance resampling methods, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to improve out-of-sample prediction for the trained model. The results indicate that if our selected performance metric is recall, gradient tree boosting is the best algorithm; however, if precision or F1 score is the selected metric, then the multilayer perceptron algorithm produces the best model.
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35
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Legese B, Balew A. Land-use and land-cover change in the lowlands of Bale Zone, Ethiopia: its driving factors and impacts of rangeland dynamics in livestock mobility. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2021; 193:453. [PMID: 34181091 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-021-09222-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Rangeland in Bale lowlands has been seriously degraded due to human-induced problems and natural factors. The study was conducted to analyze LULC change and its deriving factors and evaluate the impacts of rangeland dynamics on livestock mobility in Bale lowlands from 1990-2020. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) 1990, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM +) 2000, and Operational Land Imager (OLI) 2014 and 2020 were chosen to derive LULC classes using maximum likelihood image classifier. Besides, a household survey was used to understand the major causes of LULC change, as well as the impacts of rangeland dynamics on livestock mobility. The accuracy reports of classified LULC classes of the study were 88.2% (1990), 89.19% (2000), 93.8% (2014), and 95.2% (2020). The result of the study revealed that there was extreme bush encroachment (545.54%), expansion of settlement (19,166%), and farmland (171.27%) while forest cover has slightly decreased (-8.76%) from 1990 to 2020. On the other hand, shrubland (-72.74%) and grassland (-59.2%) have extremely declined. During the study period, rangeland of Bale lowlands was degraded with annual rate of -0.8%. The study also revealed that expansion of farmland, settlement, communal land, and bush encroachment was the main driving factors for LULC change in Bale lowlands. Bale pastoralists are vulnerable to the death of their livestock, and they need to travel long distances because of rapid rangeland degradation. Therefore, suitable land-use and management policies for pastoral communities should be formulated and implemented so as to permanently mitigate the problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Behailu Legese
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Madda Walabu University, Robe, Ethiopia
| | - Abel Balew
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia.
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36
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Zheng Z, Zhao L, Oleson KW. Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3736. [PMID: 34145293 PMCID: PMC8213750 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24113-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions - the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China - a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061-2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhonghua Zheng
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Lei Zhao
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA.
- National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA.
| | - Keith W Oleson
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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37
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Ilboudo Nébié EK, Ba D, Giannini A. Food security and climate shocks in Senegal: Who and where are the most vulnerable households? GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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38
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Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2021976118. [PMID: 33723057 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2021976118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We explore the causal connection between weather and war by constructing and analyzing a dataset featuring extreme weather events and military conflicts involving a set of stable political entities that existed side by side over several centuries, namely, the three ancient kingdoms of the Korean Peninsula between 18 Before the Common Era and 660 Common Era. Conflicts are classified as desperate if a state experiencing the shock invades a neighbor and opportunistic if a state experiencing the shock is invaded by a neighbor. We find that weather-induced conflict was significant, but largely opportunistic rather than desperate. That is, states experiencing an adverse shock were more likely to be invaded, but not more likely to initiate attack. We also provide evidence that the channel through which weather shocks gave rise to opportunistic invasions was food insecurity, which weakened the power of states to repel attack. Since climate change is projected to give rise to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, these historical findings have contemporary relevance.
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39
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Degroot D, Anchukaitis K, Bauch M, Burnham J, Carnegy F, Cui J, de Luna K, Guzowski P, Hambrecht G, Huhtamaa H, Izdebski A, Kleemann K, Moesswilde E, Neupane N, Newfield T, Pei Q, Xoplaki E, Zappia N. Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change. Nature 2021; 591:539-550. [PMID: 33762769 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03190-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2020] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dagomar Degroot
- Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
| | - Kevin Anchukaitis
- School of Geography, Development, and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.,Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Martin Bauch
- Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jakob Burnham
- Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Fred Carnegy
- School of European Languages, Culture and Society, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jianxin Cui
- Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Kathryn de Luna
- Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Piotr Guzowski
- Institute of History and Political Sciences, University of Białystok, Białystok, Poland
| | - George Hambrecht
- Department of Anthropology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Heli Huhtamaa
- Institute of History, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Adam Izdebski
- Paleo-Science and History Independent Research Group, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany.,Institute of History, Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Krakow, Poland
| | - Katrin Kleemann
- Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.,Department of History, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | - Emma Moesswilde
- Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Naresh Neupane
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Timothy Newfield
- Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.,Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Qing Pei
- Department of Social Sciences, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Elena Xoplaki
- Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany.,Center for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Natale Zappia
- Department of History, California State University Northridge, Los Angeles, CA, USA.,Institute for Sustainability, California State University Northridge, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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40
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Wise PH, Shiel A, Southard N, Bendavid E, Welsh J, Stedman S, Fazal T, Felbab-Brown V, Polatty D, Waldman RJ, Spiegel PB, Blanchet K, Dayoub R, Zakayo A, Barry M, Martinez Garcia D, Pagano H, Black R, Gaffey MF, Bhutta ZA. The political and security dimensions of the humanitarian health response to violent conflict. Lancet 2021; 397:511-521. [PMID: 33503458 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2020] [Revised: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 10/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The nature of armed conflict throughout the world is intensely dynamic. Consequently, the protection of non-combatants and the provision of humanitarian services must continually adapt to this changing conflict environment. Complex political affiliations, the systematic use of explosive weapons and sexual violence, and the use of new communication technology, including social media, have created new challenges for humanitarian actors in negotiating access to affected populations and security for their own personnel. The nature of combatants has also evolved as armed, non-state actors might have varying motivations, use different forms of violence, and engage in a variety of criminal activities to generate requisite funds. New health threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and new capabilities, such as modern trauma care, have also created new challenges and opportunities for humanitarian health provision. In response, humanitarian policies and practices must develop negotiation and safety capabilities, informed by political and security realities on the ground, and guidance from affected communities. More fundamentally, humanitarian policies will need to confront a changing geopolitical environment, in which traditional humanitarian norms and protections might encounter wavering support in the years to come.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul H Wise
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University, CA, USA; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, CA, USA; Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA.
| | - Annie Shiel
- Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA; Center for Civilians in Conflict, Washington DC, USA
| | - Nicole Southard
- Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA
| | - Eran Bendavid
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, CA, USA; Department of Medicine, Stanford University, CA, USA; Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Welsh
- Department of Political Science, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Stephen Stedman
- Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA
| | - Tanisha Fazal
- Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Vanda Felbab-Brown
- The Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, Foreign Policy Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington DC, USA
| | - David Polatty
- Civilian-Military Humanitarian Response Program, United States Naval War College, Newport, RI, USA
| | - Ronald J Waldman
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington DC, USA
| | - Paul B Spiegel
- Center for Humanitarian Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Karl Blanchet
- Geneva Centre for Education and Research in Humanitarian Action, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Health and Humanitarian Crises Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rita Dayoub
- Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, London, UK
| | | | - Michele Barry
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, CA, USA; Department of Medicine, Stanford University, CA, USA; Stanford University School of Medicine, and The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Robert Black
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Michelle F Gaffey
- Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health and Institute for Global Health and Development, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
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41
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Xu A, Liu C, Wan Y, Bai Y, Li Z. Monkeys fight more in polluted air. Sci Rep 2021; 11:654. [PMID: 33436838 PMCID: PMC7804853 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80002-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Accepted: 12/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Air pollution is a global environmental problem, and its effects on human behavior, psychology, and health have been well studied. However, very few studies were done on if and how air pollution affects animal behavior, for example, social conflict. Many physiological and psychological evidences suggest a possible positive relationship between air pollution and animal social conflict, thus we established a multiple linear regression model using a captive monkey group to explore if monkeys behave more aggressively in polluted air. Our results confirmed that daily social fighting behaviors occurred more when air is polluted. Temperature has a nonlinear effect on monkey social conflict, with a fighting peak at 25-29 °C. To our knowledge, this is the first report that animal social conflict, like humans, is also affected by air pollution and temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aichun Xu
- College of Life Sciences, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, 301118, China
| | - Chunhong Liu
- Lab of Animal Behavior & Conservation, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Yue Wan
- Lab of Animal Behavior & Conservation, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Yali Bai
- Lab of Animal Behavior & Cognition, Nanjing Hongshan Forest Zoo, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Zhongqiu Li
- Lab of Animal Behavior & Conservation, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China. .,Lab of Animal Behavior & Cognition, Nanjing Hongshan Forest Zoo, Nanjing, 210023, China.
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42
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Flaskerud JH. Reviewing the Decade, 2010 to 2019 and Challenges for the Next. Issues Ment Health Nurs 2020; 41:958-962. [PMID: 32401561 DOI: 10.1080/01612840.2020.1719249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
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43
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Liu M, Chen BF, Rubenstein DR, Shen SF. Social rank modulates how environmental quality influences cooperation and conflict within animal societies. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20201720. [PMID: 32993473 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Although dominance hierarchies occur in most societies, our understanding of how these power structures influence individual investment in cooperative and competitive behaviours remains elusive. Both conflict and cooperation in animal societies are often environmentally regulated, yet how individuals alter their cooperative and competitive investments as environmental quality changes remain unclear. Using game theoretic modelling, we predict that individuals of all ranks will invest more in cooperation and less in social conflict in harsh environments than individuals of the same ranks in benign environments. Counterintuitively, low-ranking subordinates should increase their investment in cooperation proportionally more than high-ranking dominants, suggesting that subordinates contribute relatively more when facing environmental challenges. We then test and confirm these predictions experimentally using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis. Ultimately, we demonstrate how social rank modulates the relationships between environmental quality and cooperative and competitive behaviours, a topic crucial for understanding the evolution of complex societies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Liu
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan
| | - Bo-Fei Chen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan
| | - Dustin R Rubenstein
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.,Center for Integrative Animal Behavior, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Sheng-Feng Shen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan
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Using insurance data to quantify the multidimensional impacts of warming temperatures on yield risk. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4542. [PMID: 32917888 PMCID: PMC7486405 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17707-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2019] [Accepted: 06/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Previous research predicts significant negative yield impacts from warming temperatures, but estimating the effects on yield risk and disentangling the relative causes of these losses remains challenging. Here we present new evidence on these issues by leveraging a unique publicly available dataset consisting of roughly 30,000 county-by-year observations on insurance-based measures of yield risk from 1989–2014 for U.S. corn and soybeans. Our results suggest that yield risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures, with a 1 °C increase associated with yield risk increases of approximately 32% and 11% for corn and soybeans, respectively. Using cause of loss information, we also find that additional losses under warming temperatures primarily result from additional reported occurrences of drought, with reported losses due to heat stress playing a smaller role. An implication of our findings is that the cost of purchasing crop insurance will increase for producers as a result of warming temperatures. The impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity remain debated. Here, the authors present new evidence for the magnitude and causes of U.S. crop insurance losses, using a database of production risk from 1989–2014 across 1733 counties for corn and 1632 counties for soybeans, and find that crop production risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures.
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45
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Snyder BF. Beyond the social cost of carbon: Negative emission technologies as a means for biophysically setting the price of carbon. AMBIO 2020; 49:1567-1580. [PMID: 31820259 PMCID: PMC7320092 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01301-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2019] [Revised: 09/30/2019] [Accepted: 11/18/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an estimate of the costs that society will incur because of the emission of one tonne of CO2. Because of the large uncertainties in the effects of climate change and the subjectivity of the discount rate, estimates of SCC range widely, from - 10.2 to 105 213$ t-1 in 2010 USD. Despite this range, the SCC has been used or proposed as a basis for a wide variety of policymaking including cost-benefit analysis and carbon taxes. The SCC suffers from several practical and philosophical weaknesses: it is anthropocentric, it neglects the acidification of oceans, it assumes that quantifiable economic variables like GDP are the primary costs that humans will experience from climate change, and it is impossible to quantify objectively. Further, the ethical implications of a carbon pricing policy include both the value of the carbon price, and the use of revenues generated by the policy. Thus, revenue neutral carbon policies as in some SCC-based proposals, are unlikely to be just. Here, we propose that the cost of emerging negative-emission technologies would be an alternative means for setting a carbon price and avoid these philosophical and practical weaknesses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian F Snyder
- Department of Environmental Science, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
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46
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Farhadinia MS, Johnson PJ, Zimmermann A, McGowan PJK, Meijaard E, Stanley-Price M, Macdonald DW. Ex situ management as insurance against extinction of mammalian megafauna in an uncertain world. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:988-996. [PMID: 32144814 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2019] [Revised: 12/10/2019] [Accepted: 12/15/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CBD's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad S Farhadinia
- Oxford Martin School and Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 34 Broad St, Oxford, OX1 3BD, U.K
| | - Paul J Johnson
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Oxfordshire, Oxford, OX13 5QL, U.K
| | - Alexandra Zimmermann
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Oxfordshire, Oxford, OX13 5QL, U.K
| | - Philip J K McGowan
- School of Biology, Newcastle University, Ridley Building 2, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K
| | - Erik Meijaard
- Borneo Futures, Bandar Seri Begawan, BA, 2711, Brunei Darussalam
| | - Mark Stanley-Price
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Abingdon, OX13 5QL, U.K
| | - David W Macdonald
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Abingdon, OX13 5QL, U.K
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Shen B, Hu X, Wu H. Impacts of climate variations on crime rates in Beijing, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 725:138190. [PMID: 32464740 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2019] [Revised: 03/23/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies suggest that climate variability and change impact both violent and property crimes. To investigate the mechanism, time series of crime rates (crime incidents per million people) and climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and haze) are decomposed into three components- long-term trends, seasonality and daily variations (or "noise"). Based on a 12-year dataset of daily crime (robbery, minimal violent robbery (MVR), assault, rape and homicide) numbers in Beijing, China, the correlation between climate variability and crime rate is examined for each component. The results show that in terms of seasonality, strong positive relations are observed for temperature-to-MVR, temperature-to-assault, temperature-to-rape, and relative-humidity-to-MVR but negative relations for haze-to-MVR, haze-to-assault, and haze-to-rape, which can be explained by Routine Activity Theory. In terms of daily variations, temperature, rainfall and haze are key factors. The correlations are all positive for temperature-to-assault, temperature-to-rape, temperature-to-homicide, rainfall-to-MVR, rainfall-to-robbery and rainfall-to-homicide. However, the relations between haze and crimes are more complicated. Specifically, the correlations are negative for haze-to-MVR and haze-to-robbery, but positive for haze-to-homicide, which can be interpreted by Crime Pattern Theory and also influenced by offenders' bounded rationality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Shen
- School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaofeng Hu
- School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China.
| | - Huanggang Wu
- School of International Policing Cooperation and Law Enforcement, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China
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Bakhsh K, Abbas K, Hassan S, Yasin MA, Ali R, Ahmad N, Chattha MWA. Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:24299-24311. [PMID: 32304066 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-08607-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2019] [Accepted: 03/26/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khuda Bakhsh
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan.
| | - Karim Abbas
- Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Sarfraz Hassan
- Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Asim Yasin
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan
| | - Rafaqet Ali
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan
| | - Najid Ahmad
- School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Hunan, China
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Sofuoğlu E, Ay A. The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12). ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:14033-14043. [PMID: 32036529 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-07937-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2019] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emrah Sofuoğlu
- Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ahi Evran University, Kırşehir, Turkey.
| | - Ahmet Ay
- Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Selçuk University, Konya, Turkey
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50
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Paterson SK, Godsmark CN. Heat-health vulnerability in temperate climates: lessons and response options from Ireland. Global Health 2020; 16:29. [PMID: 32228631 PMCID: PMC7106697 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-020-00554-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In Ireland, rising temperatures remains the climate projection that national climate scientists associate with the highest degree of confidence. However, the health challenge of heat has been largely absent from Ireland’s public health sector. This is epitomised by the lack of a comprehensive public health-focused heat-health action plan or country-specific codes of practice for heat-health when working outdoors. Our objective is to highlight the anticipated heat-health challenges in Ireland, and other temperate regions, through analysing vulnerable groups and systems, reinforcing the need to respond. Methods A scoping literature review was conducted to determine how heat affects health of the vulnerable in temperate climatic regions, with a focus on Ireland. Additionally, national Google Trends data was coarsely analysed to determine whether heat is a growing societal concern. Results and discussion The heat-vulnerable include: older people; chronically ill; infants, pregnant women, children; outdoor workers; socio-economically disadvantaged; urban dwellers; food systems and the health sector. Google Trends data suggest an increase in heat-related health searches over time, demonstrating rising levels of concern to temperature increases, reinforcing a gap in national policy associated with communication of, and response to, the heat-health challenge. Specific, actionable recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies are proposed. Conclusion Heat poses a public and occupational health challenge, receiving limited attention in Ireland. Lack of a co-ordinated effort, places vulnerable populations at risk. Our recommendations, with reference to vulnerable groups and acknowledging the multi-sectoral nature of heat-health and climate change, advocate for the adoption of a “health and climate change in all policies” approach and the development of a public health-focused heat-health action plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shona K Paterson
- College of Business, Arts and Social Sciences, Brunel University London, Uxbridge, UB8 3PH, UK
| | - Christie Nicole Godsmark
- School of Public Health, University College Cork, Western Gateway Building, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland. .,Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
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