Managing ecological thresholds in coupled environmental-human systems

Why aquatic scientists should use sulfur stable isotope ratios (ẟ34S) more often

Over the last few decades, measurements of light stable isotope ratios have been increasingly used to answer questions across physiology, biology, ecology, and archaeology. The vast majority analyse carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotopes as the 'default' isotopes, omitting sulfur (δ34S) due to time, cost, or perceived lack of benefits and instrumentation capabilities. Using just carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios can produce results that are inconclusive, uncertain, or in the worst cases, even misleading, especially for scientists that are new to the use and interpretation of stable isotope data. Using sulfur isotope values more regularly has the potential to mitigate these issues, especially given recent advancements that have lowered measurement barriers. Here we provide a review documenting case studies with real-world data, re-analysing different biological topics (i.e. niche, physiology, diet, movement and bioarchaeology) with and without sulfur isotopes to highlight the various strengths of this stable isotope for various applications. We also include a preliminary meta-analysis of the trophic discrimination factor (TDF) for sulfur isotopes, which suggest small (mean -0.4 ± 1.7 ‰ SD) but taxa-dependent mean trophic discrimination. Each case study demonstrates how the exclusion of sulfur comes at the detriment of the results, often leading to very different outputs, or missing valuable discoveries entirely. Given that studies relying on carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes currently underpin most of our understanding of various ecological processes, this has concerning implications. Collectively, these examples strongly suggest that researchers planning to use carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes for their research should incorporate sulfur where possible, and that the new 'default' isotope systems for aquatic science should now be carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur.

Decoupling natural and man-made impacts on the morphologic and sedimentologic changes in the tidal flats, Saemangeum area, west coast of Korea: Implications for benthic ecosystem stability

The morphodynamics of tidal flats responds mainly to the nonlinear interaction between tides and seasonal wave activity. Man-made activities such as reclamation further complicate the morphodynamics by disturbing physical processes acting on the tidal flats. Decoupling the anthropogenic influence from the natural forcing on the tidal-flat morphodynamics is crucial in assessing the adverse effects of man-made activities. Still, it remains a challenge due to inherent difficulties in characterizing spatiotemporal variability of the tidal-flat morphology. A three-year-long field survey using unmanned aviation vehicle (UAV)-assisted photogrammetry, sedimentological and benthic fauna data was conducted on the Shinsi tidal flats near the Saemangeum dike, west coast of Korea, to evaluate the relative significance between natural and anthropogenic influence on the morphologic changes of the tidal flats and benthic community structures. The Shinsi tidal flats exhibited non-seasonal sedimentation patterns and experienced overall erosion despite their sheltered location from the offshore waves. The Saemangeum dike contributed to the sustained erosion by reflecting offshore waves toward the tidal flats during winter to spring. Heavy rainfalls also promoted erosion of the tidal flats in summer. The small-scale embankments complicated the spatial sedimentation trend by protecting tidal flats from offshore waves or promoting erosion with shoaling waves. Notable mud deposition occurred during winter, incompatible with the general hydrodynamic condition, resulting from intensive dredging activity inside and outside the Saemanguem dike. The proliferation of the opportunistic species followed the mud deposition for several months until the enhanced wave activity removed the muddy sediments from the flats. Overall erosion dominance and the temporary occurrence of opportunistic species imply that the Shinsi tidal flats are subject to non-seasonal changes in sedimentology and morphology due to artificial structures and man-made activity, leading to the instability of the benthic communities in the tidal flats.

An evaluation of Goldeye life history characteristics in two Kansas reservoirs

Goldeye Hiodon alosoides are native through much of Canada and the Mississippi River drainage in the United States. Life history characteristics have been described for several commercially important populations in northern portions of their range, but there is a paucity of information available for more southernly populations. Milford and Lovewell Reservoirs are in the Kansas River basin and harbor the only two lentic Goldeye populations in Kansas. Further, anecdotal observations suggest declining population abundance. The objectives of this study were to examine temporal trends in relative abundance and describe current size structure, body condition, and population dynamics of these two remnant populations. Both populations were characterized by decreasing relative abundance over the previous 24-year period although decreases in the Lovewell population were most profound. In Milford Reservoir, median total length of sampled Goldeye was 268 mm (minimum = 235 mm, maximum = 431 mm). The estimated maximum observed age for Goldeye was 8; however, age-1 Goldeye were the most abundant year-class collected accounting for 80% of sampled fish. A von Bertalanffy growth model was fit to back-calculated length at annulus formation with parameter estimates: L∞ = 402 mm, K = 0.93, and t0 = 0.29. Two individuals were collected at Lovewell Reservoir; therefore, no analyses were conducted. Overall, this study provides cursory knowledge of two remnant Goldeye populations in Kansas. These results can be applied to promote better understanding of their ecological role in these reservoirs, and other midwestern impoundments with remnant populations.

The Relationship between Environmental Factors and Catch Abundance of Hairtail in the East China Sea Using Empirical Dynamic Modeling

The East China Sea population of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus, also known as T. japonicus) is a commercially important element of Chinese fisheries. Hairtail has long been widely exploited. Due to overfishing, however, its production declined over the years. One of solutions to this dilemma is to institute reasonable fishery policies. Generally, skillful short-term and long-term prediction of fish catch is a central tool for guiding the development of fishery policy. Accurate predictions require a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fluctuations in fish catch and variability in both fishing effort and marine environmental conditions. To investigate the combined impact of fishing effort and marine environments on hairtail catch and to develop models to predict hairtail catch, we applied empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) to data on East China Sea fisheries, including hairtail catch, fishing effort, and marine environmental factors. EDM is an equation-free approach that enables the investigation of various complex systems. We constructed all possible multivariate EDM models to investigate the potential mechanisms affecting hairtail catch. Our analysis demonstrates that all key environmental factors (salinity, summer monsoon, sea surface temperature, precipitation, and power dissipation index of tropical cyclones) have an impact on nutrient supply, which we suggest is the central factor influencing hairtail catch. Finally, our comparison of EDM models with parametric models demonstrates that EDM models overwhelmingly outperform parametric models in analysis of these complex interactions.

Temporal patterns in ecosystem services research: A review and three recommendations

Temporal aspects of ecosystem services have gained surprisingly little attention given that ecosystem service flows are not static but change over time. We present the first systematic review to describe and establish how studies have assessed temporal patterns in supply and demand of ecosystem services. 295 studies, 2% of all studies engaging with the ecosystem service concept, considered changes in ecosystem services over time. Changes were mainly characterised as monotonic and linear (81%), rather than non-linear or through system shocks. Further, a lack of focus of changing ecosystem service demand (rather than supply) hampers our understanding of the temporal patterns of ecosystem services provision and use. Future studies on changes in ecosystem services over time should (1) more explicitly study temporal patterns, (2) analyse trade-offs and synergies between services over time, and (3) integrate changes in supply and demand and involve and empower stakeholders in temporal ecosystem services research.

Exploring non-linear transition pathways in social-ecological systems

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.

Extreme multistability in a Josephson-junction-based circuit

We design and report an electrical circuit using a Josephson junction under periodic forcing that reveals extreme multistability. Its overall state equations surprisingly recall those of a well-known model of Josephson junction initially introduced in our circuit. The final circuit is characterized by the presence of two new and different current sources in parallel with the nonlinear internal current source sin[ϕ(t)] of the Josephson junction single electronic component. Furthermore, the model presents an interesting extreme multistability which is justified by a very large number of different attractors (chaotic or not) when slightly changing the initial conditions.

Bautin bifurcations in a forest-grassland ecosystem with human-environment interactions

Ecosystems may be characterized by a complex dynamical behaviour where external disturbances and/or internal perturbations may trigger sudden/irreversible changes, called catastrophic shifts. Simple mathematical models in the form of ordinary and/or partial differential equations have been proposed to approximate in a qualitatively manner the observed complex phenomena, where catastrophic shifts are determined by bifurcation points. In this work, we show that in ecosystems, gradual/smooth changes may be transformed in sudden/catastrophic shifts as a consequence of codimension-2 bifurcations. We stress the importance of using the full arsenal of numerical bifurcation theory to systematically identify and characterize criticalities in ecological models in the 2D parameter space. For our demonstrations, we revisit the analysis of a simple model of a forest-grassland mosaic ecosystem constructing the 2D bifurcation diagram with respect to the impact of human influence and that of natural causes. Our numerical analysis reveals that this simple model is able to approximate both abrupt (catastrophic) and smooth transitions as the system undergoes Bautin bifurcations.

A Transdisciplinary Approach to Identifying Transboundary Tipping Points in a Contentious Area: Experiences from across the Jordan River Region

Transdisciplinary research is urgently needed but has rarely been applied in sustainability science. Here, we present a case study for a transdisciplinary approach to identify tipping points in the Jordan River region, an area of severe conflicts and environmental problems. The aim was to identify and prioritize different ecological and social tipping points within a framework of transdisciplinary assessment, using the Jordan River Region as a case study. The methodology included an iterative process in which a multidisciplinary group of scientists and regional stakeholders evaluated emerging tipping points involving professionally facilitated workshops, a correlation analysis, and an anonymous ranking based on specific criteria (practical relevance, scientific novelty, transboundary elements, and feasibility of intervention). During the process, the similarities and differences in the perceptions of the potential case studies by stakeholders from the three countries (Israel, Palestine and Jordan) involved were analyzed. The results found key elements of the term tipping point (abrupt, difficult to predict, irreversible regime shift, difficult management), and showed local and regional differences in evaluating potential case studies, where degradation or desertification of rangelands emerged as a final case study of common concern. The lessons learnt show the potential and challenges of transboundary cooperation, and the possibility of the co-creation of research with stakeholders to build knowledge about the diversity of tipping points. The study concludes that common ground related to the sustainable management of natural resources exists even in highly contentious areas, and among highly different cultural, political, and socio-economic conditions. The approach presented here may thus inform practitioners in prioritizing areas of transboundary sustainability research in other regions.

Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation

Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation. Surprisingly, this theory predicts that the alternative states of strong conservation or overharvest are most likely for resources that were previously thought to be easily conserved under optimal management or even open access. Quantitative analyses of harvest rates from 217 intensely managed fisheries supports the predictions. Fisheries' harvest rates also showed transient dynamics characteristic of path dependence, as well as convergence to the alternative stable state after unexpected transitions. This statistical evidence for path dependence differs from previous empirical support that was based largely on case studies, experiments, and distributional analyses. Alternative stable states in conservation appear likely outcomes for many cooperatively managed renewable resources, which implies that achieving conservation outcomes hinges on harnessing existing policy tools to navigate transitions.

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Food security under climate change depends on the yield performance of staple food crops. We found a decline in the climate resilience of European wheat in most countries during the last 5 to 15 y, depending on the country. The yield responses of all the cultivars to different weather events were relatively similar within northern and central Europe, within southern European countries, and specifically regarding durum wheat. We also found serious Europe-wide gaps in wheat resilience, especially regarding yield performance under abundant rain. Climate resilience is currently not receiving the attention it deserves by breeders, seed and wheat traders, and farmers. Consequently, the results provide insights into the required learning tools, economic incentives, and role of public actors.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002–2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

Species dispersal and biodiversity in human-dominated metacommunities

The concept of the Anthropocene is based on the idea that human impacts are now the primary drivers of changes in the earth's systems, including ecological systems. In many cases, the behavior that causes ecosystem change is itself triggered by ecological factors. Yet most ecological models still treat human impacts as given, and frequently as constant. This undermines our ability to understand the feedbacks between human behavior and ecosystem change. Focusing on the problem of species dispersal, we evaluate the effect of dispersal on biodiversity in a system subject to predation by humans. People are assumed to obtain benefits from (a) the direct consumption of species (provisioning services), (b) the non-consumptive use of species (cultural services), and (c) the buffering effects of the mix of species (regulating services). We find that the effects of dispersal on biodiversity depend jointly on the competitive interactions among species, and on human preferences over species and the services they provide. We find that while biodiversity may be greatest at intermediate levels of dispersal, this depends on structure of preferences across the metacommunity.

Causal inference in coupled human and natural systems

Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are complex, dynamic, interconnected systems with feedback across social and environmental dimensions. This feedback leads to formidable challenges for causal inference. Two significant challenges involve assumptions about excludability and the absence of interference. These two assumptions have been largely unexplored in the CHANS literature, but when either is violated, causal inferences from observable data are difficult to interpret. To explore their plausibility, structural knowledge of the system is requisite, as is an explicit recognition that most causal variables in CHANS affect a coupled pairing of environmental and human elements. In a large CHANS literature that evaluates marine protected areas, nearly 200 studies attempt to make causal claims, but few address the excludability assumption. To examine the relevance of interference in CHANS, we develop a stylized simulation of a marine CHANS with shocks that can represent policy interventions, ecological disturbances, and technological disasters. Human and capital mobility in CHANS is both a cause of interference, which biases inferences about causal effects, and a moderator of the causal effects themselves. No perfect solutions exist for satisfying excludability and interference assumptions in CHANS. To elucidate causal relationships in CHANS, multiple approaches will be needed for a given causal question, with the aim of identifying sources of bias in each approach and then triangulating on credible inferences. Within CHANS research, and sustainability science more generally, the path to accumulating an evidence base on causal relationships requires skills and knowledge from many disciplines and effective academic-practitioner collaborations.

Economic Incentives for Managing Filterable Biological Pollution Risks from Trade

Infectious livestock disease problems are "biological pollution" problems. Prior work on biological pollution problems generally examines the efficient allocation of prevention and control efforts, but does not identify the specific externalities underpinning the design of efficiency-enhancing policy instruments. Prior analyses also focus on problems where those being damaged do not contribute to externalities. We examine a problem where the initial biological introduction harms the importer and then others are harmed by spread from this importer. Here, the externality is the spread of infection beyond the initial importer. This externality is influenced by the importer's private risk management choices, which provide impure public goods that reduce disease spillovers to others-making disease spread a "filterable externality." We derive efficient policy incentives to internalize filterable disease externalities given uncertainties about introduction and spread. We find efficiency requires incentivizing an importer's trade choices along with self-protection and abatement efforts, in contrast to prior work that targets trade alone. Perhaps surprisingly, we find these incentives increase with importers' private risk management incentives and with their ability to directly protect others. In cases where importers can spread infection to each other, we find filterable externalities may lead to multiple Nash equilibria.

Managing Wildlife Faced with Pathogen Risks Involving Multi-Stable Outcomes

Most models designed to understand how to manage infected wildlife systems with bioeconomic multi-stability take the initial conditions as given, thereby treating pathogen invasion as unanticipated. We examine how ex ante management is an opportunity to influence the ex post conditions, which in turn affect the ex post optimal outcome. To capture these ex ante management choices, we extend the Poisson "collapse" model of Reed and Heras (Bull Math Biol 54:185-207, 1992) to allow for endogenous initial conditions and ex post multi-stability. We account for two uncertain processes: the introduction and establishment of the pathogen. Introduction is conditional on anthropogenic investments in prevention, and both random processes are conditional on how we manage the native population to provide natural prevention of invasion and natural insurance against establishment placing the system in an undesirable basin of attraction. We find that both multi-stability of the invaded system and these uncertainty processes can create economic non-convexities that yield multiple candidate solutions to the ex ante optimization problem. Additionally, we illustrate how the nature of natural protection against introduction and establishment risks can play an important role in the allocation of anthropogenic investments.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human-environment systems

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be "doomed to criticality": Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.

Interaction of ecological and angler processes: experimental stocking in an open access, spatially structured fishery

Effective management of socioecological systems requires an understanding of the complex interactions between people and the environment. In recreational fisheries, which are prime examples of socioecological systems, anglers are analogous to mobile predators in natural predator-prey systems, and individual fisheries in lakes across a region are analogous to a spatially structured landscape of prey patches. Hence, effective management of recreational fisheries across large spatial scales requires an understanding of the dynamic interactions among ecological density dependent processes, landscape-level characteristics, and angler behaviors. We focused on the stocked component of the open access rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fishery in British Columbia (BC), and we used an experimental approach wherein we manipulated stocking densities in a subset of 34 lakes in which we monitored angler effort, fish abundance, and fish size for up to seven consecutive years. We used an empirically derived relationship between fish abundance and fish size across rainbow trout populations in BC to provide a measure of catch-based fishing quality that accounts for the size-abundance trade off in this system. We replicated our experimental manipulation in two regions known to have different angler populations and broad-scale access costs. We hypothesized that angler effort would respond to variation in stocking density, resulting in spatial heterogeneity in angler effort but homogeneity in catch-based fishing quality within regions. We found that there is an intermediate stocking density for a given lake or region at which angler effort is maximized (i.e., an optimal stocking density), and that this stocking density depends on latent effort and lake accessibility. Furthermore, we found no clear effect of stocking density on our measure of catch-based fishing quality, suggesting that angler effort homogenizes catch-related attributes leading to an eroded relationship between stocking density and catch-based fishing quality at the timescale of annual surveys. We conclude that declines in fishing quality resulting from understocking (due to declines in catch rate with low fish abundance) and overstocking (due to suppressed growth and limited recruitment at high density) give an optimal stocking rate that depends on accessibility and latent effort.

N-dimensional hypervolumes to study stability of complex ecosystems

Although our knowledge on the stabilising role of biodiversity and on how it is affected by perturbations has greatly improved, we still lack a comprehensive view on ecosystem stability that is transversal to different habitats and perturbations. Hence, we propose a framework that takes advantage of the multiplicity of components of an ecosystem and their contribution to stability. Ecosystem components can range from species or functional groups, to different functional traits, or even the cover of different habitats in a landscape mosaic. We make use of n-dimensional hypervolumes to define ecosystem states and assess how much they shift after environmental changes have occurred. We demonstrate the value of this framework with a study case on the effects of environmental change on Alpine ecosystems. Our results highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach when studying ecosystem stability and show that our framework is flexible enough to be applied to different types of ecosystem components, which can have important implications for the study of ecosystem stability and transient dynamics.

Conservation vs. livelihoods: spatial management of non-timber forest product harvests in a two-dimensional model

Areas of high biodiversity often coincide with communities living in extreme poverty. As a livelihood support, these communities often harvest wild products from the environment. But harvest activities can have negative impacts on fragile and globally important ecosystems. This paper examines trade-offs in ecological protection and community welfare from the harvest of wild products. With a novel model and empirical evidence, I show that management of harvest activity does not always resolve these trade-offs. In a model of continuous harvests in a two-dimensional landscape, managed harvest activity improves welfare, but is uniformly bad for other ecosystem services that are sensitive to the presence (as opposed to the intensity) of human activity. Empirical results from a unique dataset of mushroom harvesters in Yunnan, China suggest more experienced, poorer, and more vulnerable individuals tend to rely on more distant harvests. Thus, policies that limit the extent of forest travel, such as protected areas, may protect fragile ecosystems but can have a disproportionately negative effect on those most vulnerable.

A framework for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems

Seagrass ecosystems represent a global marine resource that is declining across its range. To halt degradation and promote recovery over large scales, management requires a radical change in emphasis and application that seeks to enhance seagrass ecosystem resilience. In this review we examine how the resilience of seagrass ecosystems is becoming compromised by a range of local to global stressors, resulting in ecological regime shifts that undermine the long-term viability of these productive ecosystems. To examine regime shifts and the management actions that can influence this phenomenon we present a conceptual model of resilience in seagrass ecosystems. The model is founded on a series of features and modifiers that act as interacting influences upon seagrass ecosystem resilience. Improved understanding and appreciation of the factors and modifiers that govern resilience in seagrass ecosystems can be utilised to support much needed evidence based management of a vital natural resource.

Landowner perceptions of the value of natural forest and natural grassland in a mosaic ecosystem in southern Brazil

The forest-grassland mosaics of southern Brazil have been subject to many land use and policy changes over the decades. Like many grasslands around the world, the Campos grasslands are declining with few conservation efforts underway. In contrast, forests receive much attention and many incentives. It is hypothesized that perception of land cover has the potential to shape ecosystems. Here we conduct a questionnaire to further our understanding of decision-making practices that alter landscapes (Campos grassland, Araucaria forest, agriculture and plantation) and direct land policies in the region. Our analysis reveals that plantations are significantly less desirable than the other landscape types. However, plantation land use has increased by 87 % over the past few decades, as a result of industry and government incentives. The proportions of other landscape types have remained consistent over the past two decades. Restoration of native vegetation is not a priority of landowners and restoration would require a financial incentive.

Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests - forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade.

Synchronization of intermittent behavior in ensembles of multistable dynamical systems

We propose a methodology to analyze synchronization in an ensemble of diffusively coupled multistable systems. First, we study how two bidirectionally coupled multistable oscillators synchronize and demonstrate the high complexity of the basins of attraction of coexisting synchronous states. Then, we propose the use of the master stability function (MSF) for multistable systems to describe synchronizability, even during intermittent behavior, of a network of multistable oscillators, regardless of both the number of coupled oscillators and the interaction structure. In particular, we show that a network of multistable elements is synchronizable for a given range of topology spectra and coupling strengths, irrespective of specific attractor dynamics to which different oscillators are locked, and even in the presence of intermittency. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the MSF approach with a network of multistable electronic circuits.

Bioeconomic analysis supports the endangered species act

The United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) was enacted to protect and restore declining fish, wildlife, and plant populations. The ESA mandates endangered species protection irrespective of costs. This translates to the restriction of activities that harm endangered populations. We discuss criticisms of the ESA in the context of public land management and examine under what circumstance banning non-conservation activity on multiple use federal lands can be socially optimal. We develop a bioeconomic model to frame the species management problem under the ESA and identify scenarios where ESA-imposed regulations emerge as optimal strategies. Results suggest that banning harmful activities is a preferred strategy when valued endangered species are in decline or exposed to poor habitat quality. However, it is not optimal to sustain such a strategy in perpetuity. An optimal plan involves a switch to land-use practices characteristic of habitat conservation plans.

Experimenting with ecosystem interaction networks in search of threshold potentials in real-world marine ecosystems

Thresholds profoundly affect our understanding and management of ecosystem dynamics, but we have yet to develop practical techniques to assess the risk that thresholds will be crossed. Combining ecological knowledge of critical system interdependencies with a large-scale experiment, we tested for breaks in the ecosystem interaction network to identify threshold potential in real-world ecosystem dynamics. Our experiment with the bivalves Macomona liliana and Austrovenus stutchburyi on marine sandflats in New Zealand demonstrated that reductions in incident sunlight changed the interaction network between sediment biogeochemical fluxes, productivity, and macrofauna. By demonstrating loss of positive feedbacks and changes in the architecture of the network, we provide mechanistic evidence that stressors lead to break points in dynamics, which theory predicts predispose a system to a critical transition.

The impact of human-environment interactions on the stability of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems

Forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems can exhibit alternative stables states, whereby under the same environmental conditions, the ecosystem could equally well reside either in one state or another, depending on the initial conditions. We develop a mathematical model that couples a simplified forest-grassland mosaic model to a dynamic model of opinions about conservation priorities in a population, based on perceptions of ecosystem rarity. Weak human influence increases the region of parameter space where alternative stable states are possible. However, strong human influence precludes bistability, such that forest and grassland either co-exist at a single, stable equilibrium, or their relative abundance oscillates. Moreover, a perturbation can shift the system from a stable state to an oscillatory state. We conclude that human-environment interactions can qualitatively alter the composition of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems. The human role in such systems should be viewed as dynamic, responsive element rather than as a fixed, unchanging entity.

Ancient clam gardens increased shellfish production: adaptive strategies from the past can inform food security today

Maintaining food production while sustaining productive ecosystems is among the central challenges of our time, yet, it has been for millennia. Ancient clam gardens, intertidal rock-walled terraces constructed by humans during the late Holocene, are thought to have improved the growing conditions for clams. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the beach slope, intertidal height, and biomass and density of bivalves at replicate clam garden and non-walled clam beaches in British Columbia, Canada. We also quantified the variation in growth and survival rates of littleneck clams (Leukoma staminea) we experimentally transplanted across these two beach types. We found that clam gardens had significantly shallower slopes than non-walled beaches and greater densities of L. staminea and Saxidomus giganteus, particularly at smaller size classes. Overall, clam gardens contained 4 times as many butter clams and over twice as many littleneck clams relative to non-walled beaches. As predicted, this relationship varied as a function of intertidal height, whereby clam density and biomass tended to be greater in clam gardens compared to non-walled beaches at relatively higher intertidal heights. Transplanted juvenile L. staminea grew 1.7 times faster and smaller size classes were more likely to survive in clam gardens than non-walled beaches, specifically at the top and bottom of beaches. Consequently, we provide strong evidence that ancient clam gardens likely increased clam productivity by altering the slope of soft-sediment beaches, expanding optimal intertidal clam habitat, thereby enhancing growing conditions for clams. These results reveal how ancient shellfish aquaculture practices may have supported food security strategies in the past and provide insight into tools for the conservation, management, and governance of intertidal seascapes today.

SIR DYNAMICS WITH ECONOMICALLY DRIVEN CONTACT RATES

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model has greatly evidenced epidemiology despite its apparent simplicity. Most applications of the SIR framework use a form of nonlinear incidence to describe the number of new cases per instant. We adapt theorems to analyze the stability of SIR models with a generalized nonlinear incidence structure. These theorems are then applied to the case of standard incidence and incidence resulting from adaptive behavioral response based on epidemiological-economic theory. When adaptive behavior is included in the SIR model multiple equilibria and oscillatory epidemiological dynamics can occur over a greater parameter space. Our analysis, based on the epidemiological-economic incidence, provides new insights into epidemics as complex adaptive systems, highlights important nonlinearities that lead to complex behavior, and provides mechanistic motivation for a shift away from standard incidence, and outlines important areas of research related to the complex-adaptive dynamics of epidemics.

Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic

Public policies intended to induce behavioral change, specifically incentives to reduce interpersonal contacts or to "social distance," increasingly play a prominent role in public disease response strategies as governments plan for and respond to major epidemics. I compare social distancing incentives and outcomes under decentralized, full control social planner, and constrained social planner, without health class specific control, decision making scenarios. Constrained social planner decision making, based on non-health class specific controls, can in some instances make society worse off than decentralized decision making (i.e. no intervention). The oft neglected behavior of recovered and immune individuals is important for welfare and health outcomes.

Global Introductions of Crayfishes: Evaluating the Impact of Species Invasions on Ecosystem Services

Impacts of nonindigenous crayfishes on ecosystem services exemplify the mixture of positive and negative effects of intentionally introduced species. Global introductions for aquaculture and ornamental purposes have begun to homogenize naturally disjunct global distributions of crayfish families. Negative impacts include the loss of provisioning (e.g., reductions in edible native species, reproductive interference or hybridization with native crayfishes), regulatory (e.g., lethal disease spread, increased costs to agriculture and water management), supporting (e.g., large changes in ecological communities), and cultural (e.g., loss of festivals celebrating native crayfish) services. Where quantification of impacts exists (e.g., Procambarus clarkii and Pacifastacus leniusculus in Europe), regulations now prohibit introduction and spread of crayfishes, indicating that losses of ecosystem services have outweighed gains. Recent research advances such as predicting invasiveness, predicting spread, improved detection and control, and bioeconomic analysis to increase cost-effectiveness of management could be employed to reduce future losses of ecosystem services.

TEASIng apart alien species risk assessments: a framework for best practices

Some alien species cause substantial impacts, yet most are innocuous. Given limited resources, forecasting risks from alien species will help prioritise management. Given that risk assessment (RA) approaches vary widely, a synthesis is timely to highlight best practices. We reviewed quantitative and scoring RAs, integrating > 300 publications into arguably the most rigorous quantitative RA framework currently existing, and mapping each study onto our framework, which combines Transport, Establishment, Abundance, Spread and Impact (TEASI). Quantitative models generally measured single risk components (78% of studies), often focusing on Establishment alone (79%). Although dominant in academia, quantitative RAs are underused in policy, and should be made more accessible. Accommodating heterogeneous limited data, combining across risk components, and developing generalised RAs across species, space and time without requiring new models for each species may increase attractiveness for policy applications. Comparatively, scoring approaches covered more risk components (50% examined > 3 components), with Impact being the most common component (87%), and have been widely applied in policy (> 57%), but primarily employed expert opinion. Our framework provides guidance for questions asked, combining scores and other improvements. Our risk framework need not be completely parameterised to be informative, but instead identifies opportunities for improvement in alien species RA.