Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa

The Adaptation Front Equation Explains Innovation-Driven Taxonomic Turnovers and Living Fossilization

AbstractEvolutionary taxonomic turnovers are often associated with innovations beneficial in various ecological niches. Such innovations can repeatedly occur in species occupying optimum niches for a focal species group, resulting in their repeated diversifications and species flows from optimum to suboptimum niches, at the expense of less innovated ones. By combining species packing theory and adaptive dynamics theory, we develop an equation that allows analytical prediction for such innovation-driven species flows over a niche space of arbitrary dimension under a unimodal carrying capacity distribution. The developed equation and simulated evolution show that central niches (with the highest carrying capacities) tend to attain the fastest innovation speeds to become biodiversity sources. Species that diverge from the central niches outcompete the indigenous species in peripheral niches. The outcompeted species become extinct or evolve directionally toward far more peripheral niches. Because of this globally acting process over niches, species occupying the most peripheral niches are the least innovated and have deep divergence times from their closest relatives, and thus they correspond to living fossils. The extension of this analysis for multiple geographic regions shows that living fossils are also expected in geographically peripheral regions for the focal species group.

Ancient Reef Traits, a database of trait information for reef-building organisms over the Phanerozoic

Trait-based approaches are increasingly relevant to understand ecological and evolutionary patterns. A comprehensive trait database for extant reef corals is already available and widely used to reveal vulnerabilities to environmental disturbances including climate change. However, the lack of similar trait compilations for extinct reef builders prevents the derivation of generalities from the fossil record and to address similar questions. Here we present the Ancient Reef Traits Database (ARTD), which aims to compile trait information of various reef-building organisms in one single repository. ARTD contains specimen-level data from both published and unpublished resources. In this first version, we release 15 traits for 505 genera and 1129 species, comprising a dataset of 17,841 trait values of Triassic to mid-Holocene scleractinian corals, the dominant reef-builders in the modern ocean. Other trait data, including for other reef-building organisms, are currently being collated.

Measurement(s)	fossil coral traits
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Scleractinian corals
Sample Characteristic - Location	Global

Early bursts of disparity and the reorganization of character integration

'Early bursts' of morphological disparity (i.e. diversity of anatomical types) are common in the fossil record. We typically model such bursts as elevated early rates of independent character change. Developmental theory predicts that modules of linked characters can change together, which would mimic the effects of elevated independent rates on disparity. However, correlated change introducing suboptimal states should encourage breakup (parcellation) of character suites allowing new (or primitive) states to evolve until new suites arise (relinkage). Thus, correlated change-breakup-relinkage presents mechanisms for early bursts followed by constrained evolution. Here, I analyse disparity in 257 published character matrices of fossil taxa. For each clade, I use inverse-modelling to infer most probably rates of independent change given both time-homogeneous and separate 'early versus late' rates. These rates are used to estimate expected disparity given both independent change models. The correlated change-breakup-relinkage model also predicts elevated frequencies of compatible character state-pairs appearing out of order in the fossil record (e.g. 01 appearing after 00 and 11; = low stratigraphic compatibility), as one solution to suboptimal states induced by correlated change is a return to states held before that change. As predicted by the correlated change-breakup-relinkage model, early disparity in the majority of clades both exceeds the expectations of either independent change model and excess early disparity correlates with low stratigraphic compatibility among character-pairs. Although it is possible that other mechanisms for linking characters contribute to these patterns, these results corroborate the idea that reorganization of developmental linkages is often associated with the origin of groups that biologists recognize as new higher taxa and that such reorganization offers a source of new disparity throughout the Phanerozoic.

Rethinking Living Fossils

Biologists would be mistaken if they relegated living fossils to paleontological inquiry or assumed that the concept is dead. It is now used to describe entities ranging from viruses to higher taxa, despite recent warnings of misleading inferences. Current work on character evolution illustrates how analyzing living fossils and stasis in terms of parts (characters) and wholes (e.g., organisms and lineages) advances our understanding of prolonged stasis at many hierarchical levels. Instead of viewing the concept's task as categorizing living fossils, we show how its primary role is to mark out what is in need of explanation, accounting for the persistence of both molecular and morphological traits. Rethinking different conceptions of living fossils as specific hypotheses reveals novel avenues for research that integrate phylogenetics, ecological and evolutionary modeling, and evo-devo to produce a more unified theoretical outlook.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 2. Sorting of Variation, Some Overarching Issues, and General Conclusions

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting-sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties-can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionary trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailing edges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 1. General Concepts and Origin of Variation

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, i.e. the origin and the sorting of variation, in a hierarchical framework. Macroevolution occurs in multiple currencies that are only loosely correlated, notably taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional variety. The origin of variation within this conceptual framework is increasingly understood in developmental terms, with the semi-hierarchical structure of gene regulatory networks (GRNs, used here in a broad sense incorporating not just the genetic circuitry per se but the factors controlling the timing and location of gene expression and repression), the non-linear relation between magnitude of genetic change and the phenotypic results, the evolutionary potential of co-opting existing GRNs, and developmental responsiveness to nongenetic signals (i.e. epigenetics and plasticity), all requiring modification of standard microevolutionary models, and rendering difficult any simple definition of evolutionary novelty. The developmental factors underlying macroevolution create anisotropic probabilities-i.e., an uneven density distribution-of evolutionary change around any given phenotypic starting point, and the potential for coordinated changes among traits that can accommodate change via epigenetic mechanisms. From this standpoint, "punctuated equilibrium" and "phyletic gradualism" simply represent two cells in a matrix of evolutionary models of phenotypic change, and the origin of trends and evolutionary novelty are not simply functions of ecological opportunity. Over long timescales, contingency becomes especially important, and can be viewed in terms of macroevolutionary lags (the temporal separation between the origin of a trait or clade and subsequent diversification); such lags can arise by several mechanisms: as geological or phylogenetic artifacts, or when diversifications require synergistic interactions among traits, or between traits and external events. The temporal and spatial patterns of the origins of evolutionary novelties are a challenge to macroevolutionary theory; individual events can be described retrospectively, but a general model relating development, genetics, and ecology is needed. An accompanying paper (Jablonski in Evol Biol 2017) reviews diversity dynamics and the sorting of variation, with some general conclusions.

No evidence for the radiation time lag model after whole genome duplications in Teleostei

The short and long term effects of polyploidization on the evolutionary fate of lineages is still unclear despite much interest. First recognized in land plants, it has become clear that polyploidization is widespread in eukaryotes, notably at the origin of vertebrates and teleost fishes. Many hypotheses have been proposed to link the species richness of lineages and whole genome duplications. For instance, the radiation time lag model suggests that paleopolyploidy would favour the apparition of new phenotypic traits, although the radiation of the lineage would not occur before a later dispersion event. Some results indicate that this model may be observed during land plant evolution. In this work, we test predictions of the radiation time lag model using both fossil data and molecular phylogenies in ancient and more recent teleost whole genome duplications. We fail to find any evidence of delayed increase of the species number after any of these events and conclude that paleopolyploidization still remains to be unambiguously linked to taxonomic diversity in teleosts.

Life in the Aftermath of Mass Extinctions

The vast majority of species that have ever lived went extinct sometime other than during one of the great mass extinction events. In spite of this, mass extinctions are thought to have outsized effects on the evolutionary history of life. While part of this effect is certainly due to the extinction itself, I here consider how the aftermaths of mass extinctions might contribute to the evolutionary importance of such events. Following the mass loss of taxa from the fossil record are prolonged intervals of ecological upheaval that create a selective regime unique to those times. The pacing and duration of ecosystem change during extinction aftermaths suggests strong ties between the biosphere and geosphere, and a previously undescribed macroevolutionary driver - earth system succession. Earth system succession occurs when global environmental or biotic change, as occurs across extinction boundaries, pushes the biosphere and geosphere out of equilibrium. As species and ecosystems re-evolve in the aftermath, they change global biogeochemical cycles - and in turn, species and ecosystems - over timescales typical of the geosphere, often many thousands to millions of years. Earth system succession provides a general explanation for the pattern and timing of ecological and evolutionary change in the fossil record. Importantly, it also suggests that a speed limit might exist for the pace of global biotic change after massive disturbance - a limit set by geosphere-biosphere interactions. For mass extinctions, earth system succession may drive the ever-changing ecological stage on which species evolve, restructuring ecosystems and setting long-term evolutionary trajectories as they do.

Eutherians experienced elevated evolutionary rates in the immediate aftermath of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene mass extinction

The effect of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) mass extinction on the evolution of many groups, including placental mammals, has been hotly debated. The fossil record suggests a sudden adaptive radiation of placentals immediately after the event, but several recent quantitative analyses have reconstructed no significant increase in either clade origination rates or rates of character evolution in the Palaeocene. Here we use stochastic methods to date a recent phylogenetic analysis of Cretaceous and Palaeocene mammals and show that Placentalia likely originated in the Late Cretaceous, but that most intraordinal diversification occurred during the earliest Palaeocene. This analysis reconstructs fewer than 10 placental mammal lineages crossing the K-Pg boundary. Moreover, we show that rates of morphological evolution in the 5 Myr interval immediately after the K-Pg mass extinction are three times higher than background rates during the Cretaceous. These results suggest that the K-Pg mass extinction had a marked impact on placental mammal diversification, supporting the view that an evolutionary radiation occurred as placental lineages invaded new ecological niches during the Early Palaeocene.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean.

Elevated Extinction Rates as a Trigger for Diversification Rate Shifts: Early Amniotes as a Case Study

Tree shape analyses are frequently used to infer the location of shifts in diversification rate within the Tree of Life. Many studies have supported a causal relationship between shifts and temporally coincident events such as the evolution of “key innovations”. However, the evidence for such relationships is circumstantial. We investigated patterns of diversification during the early evolution of Amniota from the Carboniferous to the Triassic, subjecting a new supertree to analyses of tree balance in order to infer the timing and location of diversification shifts. We investigated how uneven origination and extinction rates drive diversification shifts, and use two case studies (herbivory and an aquatic lifestyle) to examine whether shifts tend to be contemporaneous with evolutionary novelties. Shifts within amniotes tend to occur during periods of elevated extinction, with mass extinctions coinciding with numerous and larger shifts. Diversification shifts occurring in clades that possess evolutionary innovations do not coincide temporally with the appearance of those innovations, but are instead deferred to periods of high extinction rate. We suggest such innovations did not cause increases in the rate of cladogenesis, but allowed clades to survive extinction events. We highlight the importance of examining general patterns of diversification before interpreting specific shifts.

Expected time-invariant effects of biological traits on mammal species duration

Determining which biological traits influence differences in extinction risk is vital for understanding the differential diversification of life and for making predictions about species' vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts. Here I present a hierarchical Bayesian survival model of North American Cenozoic mammal species durations in relation to species-level ecological factors, time of origination, and phylogenetic relationships. I find support for the survival of the unspecialized as a time-invariant generalization of trait-based extinction risk. Furthermore, I find that phylogenetic and temporal effects are both substantial factors associated with differences in species durations. Finally, I find that the estimated effects of these factors are partially incongruous with how these factors are correlated with extinction risk of the extant species. These findings parallel previous observations that background extinction is a poor predictor of mass extinction events and suggest that attention should be focused on mass extinctions to gain insight into modern species loss.