No barrier to emergence of bathyal king crabs on the Antarctic shelf

Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping-stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to climate-driven environmental changes, particularly in high-latitude regions. However, the patterns of dispersal and colonization during range shifting events are not always clear. Understanding how populations are connected through space and time can reveal how species navigate a changing environment. Here, we present a fine-scale population genomics study of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), a presumed site-faithful colonial nesting species that has increased in population size and expanded its range south along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Using whole genome sequencing, we analysed 129 gentoo penguin individuals across 12 colonies located at or near the southern range edge. Through a detailed examination of fine-scale population structure, admixture, and population divergence, we inferred that gentoo penguins historically dispersed rapidly in a stepping-stone pattern from the South Shetland Islands leading to the colonization of Anvers Island, and then the adjacent mainland Western Antarctica Peninsula. Recent southward expansion along the Western Antarctic Peninsula also followed a stepping-stone dispersal pattern coupled with limited post-divergence gene flow from colonies on Anvers Island. Genetic diversity appeared to be maintained across colonies during the historical dispersal process, and range-edge populations are still growing. This suggests large numbers of migrants may provide a buffer against founder effects at the beginning of colonization events to maintain genetic diversity similar to that of the source populations before migration ceases post-divergence. These results coupled with a continued increase in effective population size since approximately 500-800 years ago distinguish gentoo penguins as a robust species that is highly adaptable and resilient to changing climate.

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

Would Antarctic Marine Benthos Survive Alien Species Invasions? What Chemical Ecology May Tell Us

Many Antarctic marine benthic macroinvertebrates are chemically protected against predation by marine natural products of different types. Antarctic potential predators mostly include sea stars (macropredators) and amphipod crustaceans (micropredators) living in the same areas (sympatric). Recently, alien species (allopatric) have been reported to reach the Antarctic coasts, while deep-water crabs are suggested to be more often present in shallower waters. We decided to investigate the effect of the chemical defenses of 29 representative Antarctic marine benthic macroinvertebrates from seven different phyla against predation by using non-native allopatric generalist predators as a proxy for potential alien species. The Antarctic species tested included 14 Porifera, two Cnidaria, two Annelida, one Nemertea, two Bryozooa, three Echinodermata, and five Chordata (Tunicata). Most of these Antarctic marine benthic macroinvertebrates were chemically protected against an allopatric generalist amphipod but not against an allopatric generalist crab from temperate waters. Therefore, both a possible recolonization of large crabs from deep waters or an invasion of non-native generalist crab species could potentially alter the fundamental nature of these communities forever since chemical defenses would not be effective against them. This, together with the increasing temperatures that elevate the probability of alien species surviving, is a huge threat to Antarctic marine benthos.

Spatial patterns of continental shelf faunal community structure along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Knowledge of continental shelf faunal biodiversity of Antarctica is patchy and as such, the ecology of this unique ecosystem is not fully understood. To this end, we deployed baited cameras at 20 locations along ~ 500 km of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at depths from 90 to 797 m. We identified 111 unique taxa, with mud bottom accounting for 90% of the dominant (≥ 50% cover) habitat sampled. Amphipoda comprised 41% of the total maximum number of individuals per camera deployment (MaxN) and occurred on 75% of deployments. Excluding this taxon, the highest MaxN occurred around King George/25 de Mayo Island and was driven primarily by the abundance of krill (Euphausiidae), which accounted for 36% of total average MaxN among deployments around this island. In comparison, krill comprised 22% of total average MaxN at Deception Island and only 10% along the peninsula. Taxa richness, diversity, and evenness all increased with depth and depth explained 18.2% of the variation in community structure among locations, which may be explained by decreasing ice scour with depth. We identified a number of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem taxa, including habitat-forming species of cold-water corals and sponge fields. Channichthyidae was the most common fish family, occurring on 80% of all deployments. The Antarctic jonasfish (Notolepis coatsorum) was the most frequently encountered fish taxa, occurring on 70% of all deployments and comprising 25% of total MaxN among all deployments. Nototheniidae was the most numerically abundant fish family, accounting for 36% of total MaxN and was present on 70% of the deployments. The WAP is among the fastest warming regions on Earth and mitigating the impacts of warming, along with more direct impacts such as those from fishing, is critical in providing opportunities for species to adapt to environmental change and to preserve this unique ecosystem.

Loss of Biodiversity Dimensions through Shifting Climates and Ancient Mass Extinctions

Many aspects of climate affect the deployment of biodiversity in time and space, and so changes in climate might be expected to drive regional and global extinction of both taxa and their ecological functions. Here we examine the association of past climate changes with extinction in marine bivalves, which are increasingly used as a model system for macroecological and macroevolutionary analysis. Focusing on the Cenozoic Era (66 Myr ago to the present), we analyze extinction patterns in shallow-water marine bivalve genera relative to temperature dynamics as estimated from isotopic data in microfossils. When the entire Cenozoic timeseries is considered, extinction intensity is not significantly associated with the mean temperature or the detrended variance in temperature within a given time interval (stratigraphic stage). However, extinction increases significantly with both the rate of temperature change within the stage of extinction and the absolute change in mean temperature from the preceding stage to the stage of extinction. Thus, several extinction events, particularly the extinction pulse near the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, do appear to have climatic drivers. Further, the latitudinal diversity gradient today and the Cenozoic history of polar faunas suggest that long-term, regional extinctions associated with cooling removed not just taxa but a variety of ecological functions from high-latitude seas. These dynamics of biodiversity loss contrast with the two mass extinctions bracketing the Mesozoic Era, which had negligible effects on the diversity of ecological functions despite removing nearly as many taxa as the latitudinal gradient does today. Thus, the fossil record raises a key issue: whether the biotic consequences of present-day stresses will more closely resemble the long-term effects of past climate changes or those that cascaded from the mass extinctions.

Choosing the future of Antarctica

We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.

Evolution through cold and deep waters: the molecular phylogeny of the Lithodidae (Crustacea: Decapoda)

The objectives of this work are to use gene sequence data to assess the hypothesis that the Lithodinae arose from ancestors with uncalcified abdomens in shallow waters of the North-East Pacific, investigate the monophyly and interrelationships of genera within the Lithodinae and to estimate the scale and minimum number of biogeographic transitions from the shallow environment to the deep sea and vice versa. To do this, phylogenetic analysis from three mitochondrial and three nuclear markers was conducted using minimum evolution, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The Lithodinae as defined to include North Pacific genus Cryptolithodes may be paraphyletic, with the Hapalogastrinae and Cryptolithodes as sister taxa. This implies that the soft-bodied abdomen of the Hapalogastrinae might not be plesiomorphic for the Lithodidae. Paralomis, Lopholithodes, Phyllolithodes, Lithodes and Neolithodes share a common ancestor, from which the North Pacific Hapalogastrinae did not descend. Lithodid ancestors are likely to have had a north Pacific, shallow water distribution and to have had planktotrophic larvae. North Pacific genus Paralithodes is paraphyletic; P. brevipes is the most basal member of the genus (as sampled) while P. camtschaticus and P. platypus are more closely related to the genera Lithodes and Neolithodes. Genera Lithodes, Neolithodes and Paralomis (as sampled) are monophyletic if Glyptolithodes is included within Paralomis. Lopholithodes is closely related to, but not included within, the Paralomis genus. Paralomis is divided into at least two major lineages: one containing South Atlantic, West African, and Indian Ocean species, and the other containing Pacific and South American species. Several species of Paralomis do not resolve consistently with any other groups sampled, implying a complex and possibly rapid global evolution early in the history of the genus. Relationships within the Lithodes genus vary between analytical methods, suggesting that conclusions may not be stable. Consistently, however, Indian Ocean and Pacific forms—L. murrayi, L. longispina and L. nintokuae form a group separated from Atlantic species such as L. santolla, L. confundens, L. maja and L. ferox.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

Latitudinal trends in shell production cost from the tropics to the poles

The proportion of body mass devoted to skeleton in marine invertebrates decreases along latitudinal gradients from large proportions in the tropics to small proportions in polar regions. A historical hypothesis-that latitudinal differences in shell production costs explain these trends-remains untested. Using field-collected specimens spanning a 79°N to 68°S latitudinal gradient (16,300 km), we conducted a taxonomically controlled evaluation of energetic costs of shell production as a proportion of the total energy budget in mollusks. Shell production cost was fairly low across latitudes at <10% of the energy budget and predominately <5% in gastropods and <4% in bivalves. Throughout life, shell cost tended to be lower in tropical species and increased slightly toward the poles. However, shell cost also varied with life stage, with the greatest costs found in young tropical gastropods. Low shell production costs on the energy budget suggest that shell cost may play only a small role in influencing proportional skeleton size gradients across latitudes relative to other ecological factors, such as predation in present-day oceans. However, any increase in the cost of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) deposition, including from ocean acidification, may lead to a projected ~50 to 70% increase in the proportion of the total energy budget required for shell production for a doubling of the CaCO₃ deposition cost. Changes in energy budget allocation to shell cost would likely alter ecological trade-offs between calcification and other drivers, such as predation, in marine ecosystems.

From pole to pole: the potential for the Arctic seastar Asterias amurensis to invade a warming Southern Ocean

Due to climatic warming, Asterias amurensis, a keystone boreal predatory seastar that has established extensive invasive populations in southern Australia, is a potential high-risk invader of the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic. To assess the potential range expansion of A. amurensis to the Southern Ocean as it warms, we investigated the bioclimatic envelope of the adult and larval life stages. We analysed the distribution of adult A. amurensis with respect to present-day and future climate scenarios using habitat temperature data to construct species distribution models (SDMs). To integrate the physiological response of the dispersive phase, we determined the thermal envelope of larval development to assess their performance in present-day and future thermal regimes and the potential for success of A. amurensis in poleward latitudes. The SDM indicated that the thermal 'niche' of the adult stage correlates with a 0-17 °C and 1-22.5 °C range, in winter and summer, respectively. As the ocean warms, the range of A. amurensis in Australia will contract, while more southern latitudes will have conditions favourable for range expansion. Successful fertilization occurred from 3 to 23.8 °C. By day 12, development to the early larval stage was successful from 5.5 to 18 °C. Although embryos were able to reach the blastula stage at 2 °C, they had arrested development and high mortality. The optimal thermal range for survival of pelagic stages was 3.5-19.2 °C with a lower and upper critical limit of 2.6 and 20.3 °C, respectively. Our data predict that A. amurensis faces demise in its current invasive range while more favourable conditions at higher latitudes would facilitate invasion of both larval and adult stages to the Southern Ocean. Our results show that vigilance is needed to reduce the risk that this ecologically important Arctic carnivore may invade the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.