Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models for invasion risk assessment

Global climate change is expected to accelerate biological invasions, necessitating accurate risk forecasting and management strategies. However, current invasion risk assessments often overlook adaptive genomic variation, which plays a significant role in the persistence and expansion of invasive populations. Here we used Molgula manhattensis, a highly invasive ascidian, as a model to assess its invasion risks along Chinese coasts under climate change. Through population genomics analyses, we identified two genetic clusters, the north and south clusters, based on geographic distributions. To predict invasion risks, we employed the gradient forest and species distribution models to calculate genomic offset and species habitat suitability, respectively. These approaches yielded distinct predictions: the gradient forest model suggested a greater genomic offset to future climatic conditions for the north cluster (i.e., lower invasion risks), while the species distribution model indicated higher future habitat suitability for the same cluster (i.e, higher invasion risks). By integrating these models, we found that the south cluster exhibited minor genome-niche disruptions in the future, indicating higher invasion risks. Our study highlights the complementary roles of genomic offset and habitat suitability in assessing invasion risks under climate change. Moreover, incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models can significantly enhance future invasion risk predictions and enable effective management strategies for biological invasions in the future.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Mitochondrial genome sequencing and analysis of the invasive Microstegium vimineum: a resource for systematics, invasion history, and management

Premise of the Research

Plants remain underrepresented among species with sequenced mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes), due to the difficulty in assembly with short-read technology. Invasive species lag behind crops and other economically important species in this respect, representing a lack of tools for management and land conservation efforts.

Methodology

The mitogenome of Microstegium vimineum, one of the most damaging invasive plant species in North America, was sequenced and analyzed using long-read data, providing a resource for biologists and managers. We conducted analyses of genome content, phylogenomic analyses among grasses and relatives based on mitochondrial coding regions, and an analysis of mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphism in this invasive grass species.

Pivotal Results

The assembly is 478,010 bp in length and characterized by two large, inverted repeats, and a large, direct repeat. However, the genome could not be circularized, arguing against a "master circle" structure. Long-read assemblies with data subsets revealed several alternative genomic conformations, predominantly associated with large repeats. Plastid-like sequences comprise 2.4% of the genome, with further evidence of Class I and Class II transposable element-like sequences. Phylogenetic analysis placed M. vimineum with other Microstegium species, excluding M. nudum, but with weak support. Analysis of polymorphic sites across 112 accessions of M. vimineum from the native and invasive ranges revealed a complex invasion history.

Conclusions

We present an in-depth analysis of mitogenome structure, content, phylogenetic relationships, and range-wide genomic variation in M. vimineum's invasive US range. The mitogenome of M. vimineum is typical of other andropogonoid grasses, yet mitochondrial sequence variation across the invasive and native ranges is extensive. Our findings suggest multiple introductions to the US over the last century, with subsequent spread, secondary contact, long-distance dispersal, and possibly post-invasion selection on awn phenotypes. Efforts to produce genomic resources for invasive species, including sequenced mitochondrial genomes, will continue to provide tools for their effective management, and to help predict and prevent future invasions.

Managing human-mediated range shifts: understanding spatial, temporal and genetic variation in marine non-native species

The use of molecular tools to manage natural resources is increasingly common. However, DNA-based methods are seldom used to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of species' range shifts. This is important when managing range shifting species such as non-native species (NNS), which can have negative impacts on biotic communities. Here, we investigated the ascidian NNS Ciona robusta, Clavelina lepadiformis, Microcosmus squamiger and Styela plicata using a combined methodological approach. We first conducted non-molecular biodiversity surveys for these NNS along the South African coastline, and compared the results with historical surveys. We detected no consistent change in range size across species, with some displaying range stability and others showing range shifts. We then sequenced a section of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) from tissue samples and found genetic differences along the coastline but no change over recent times. Finally, we found that environmental DNA metabarcoding data showed broad congruence with both the biodiversity survey and the COI datasets, but failed to capture the complete incidence of all NNS. Overall, we demonstrated how a combined methodological approach can effectively detect spatial and temporal variation in genetic composition and range size, which is key for managing both thriving NNS and threatened species.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)’.