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Sun J, Wu S, Mou Z, Wen J, Wei H, Zou J, Li Q, Liu Z, Xu SH, Kang M, Ling Q, Huang H, Chen X, Wang Y, Liao X, Tan G, Shao Y. Prediction model of ocular metastasis from primary liver cancer: Machine learning-based development and interpretation study. Cancer Med 2023; 12:20482-20496. [PMID: 37795569 PMCID: PMC10652349 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.6540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2022] [Revised: 08/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ocular metastasis (OM) is a rare metastatic site of primary liver cancer (PLC). The purpose of this study was to establish a clinical predictive model of OM in PLC patients based on machine learning (ML). METHODS We retrospectively collected the clinical data of 1540 PLC patients and divided it into a training set and an internal test set in a 7:3 proportion. PLC patients were divided into OM and non-ocular metastasis (NOM) groups, and univariate logistic regression analysis was performed between the two groups. The variables with univariate logistic analysis p < 0.05 were selected for the ML model. We constructed six ML models, which were internally verified by 10-fold cross-validation. The prediction performance of each ML model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs). We also constructed a web calculator based on the optimal performance ML model to personalize the risk probability for OM. RESULTS Six variables were selected for the ML model. The extreme gradient boost (XGB) ML model achieved the optimal differential diagnosis ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.993, accuracy = 0.992, sensitivity = 0.998, and specificity = 0.984. Based on these results, an online web calculator was constructed by using the XGB ML model to help clinicians diagnose and treat the risk probability of OM in PLC patients. Finally, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) library was used to obtain the six most important risk factors for OM in PLC patients: CA125, ALP, AFP, TG, CA199, and CEA. CONCLUSION We used the XGB model to establish a risk prediction model of OM in PLC patients. The predictive model can help identify PLC patients with a high risk of OM, provide early and personalized diagnosis and treatment, reduce the poor prognosis of OM patients, and improve the quality of life of PLC patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin‐Qi Sun
- Fuxing Hospital, The Eighth Clinical Medical CollegeCapital Medical UniversityBeijingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Shi‐Nan Wu
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Eye Institute of Xiamen UniversitySchool of Medicine, Xiamen UniversityXiamenPeople's Republic of China
| | - Zheng‐Lin Mou
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Jia‐Yi Wen
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Hong Wei
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Jie Zou
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Qing‐Jian Li
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Eye Institute of Xiamen UniversitySchool of Medicine, Xiamen UniversityXiamenPeople's Republic of China
| | - Zhao‐Lin Liu
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of University of South China, Hunan Branch of The National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseHengyangPeople's Republic of China
| | - San Hua Xu
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Min Kang
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Qian Ling
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Hui Huang
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Xu Chen
- Department of Ophthalmology and Visual SciencesMaastricht UniversityMaastrichtNetherlands
| | - Yi‐Xin Wang
- School of Optometry and Vision SciencesCardiff UniversityCardiffUK
| | - Xu‐Lin Liao
- Department of Ophthalmology and Visual SciencesThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongPeople's Republic of China
| | - Gang Tan
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of University of South China, Hunan Branch of The National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseHengyangPeople's Republic of China
| | - Yi Shao
- Department of OphthalmologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Branch of the National Clinical Research Center for Ocular DiseaseNanchangPeople's Republic of China
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Romero R, Jung E, Chaiworapongsa T, Erez O, Gudicha DW, Kim YM, Kim JS, Kim B, Kusanovic JP, Gotsch F, Taran AB, Yoon BH, Hassan SS, Hsu CD, Chaemsaithong P, Gomez-Lopez N, Yeo L, Kim CJ, Tarca AL. Toward a new taxonomy of obstetrical disease: improved performance of maternal blood biomarkers for the great obstetrical syndromes when classified according to placental pathology. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2022; 227:615.e1-615.e25. [PMID: 36180175 PMCID: PMC9525890 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajog.2022.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2021] [Revised: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The major challenge for obstetrics is the prediction and prevention of the great obstetrical syndromes. We propose that defining obstetrical diseases by the combination of clinical presentation and disease mechanisms as inferred by placental pathology will aid in the discovery of biomarkers and add specificity to those already known. OBJECTIVE To describe the longitudinal profile of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), and the PlGF/sFlt-1 ratio throughout gestation, and to determine whether the association between abnormal biomarker profiles and obstetrical syndromes is strengthened by information derived from placental examination, eg, the presence or absence of placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion. STUDY DESIGN This retrospective case cohort study was based on a parent cohort of 4006 pregnant women enrolled prospectively. The case cohort of 1499 pregnant women included 1000 randomly selected patients from the parent cohort and all additional patients with obstetrical syndromes from the parent cohort. Pregnant women were classified into six groups: 1) term delivery without pregnancy complications (n=540; control); 2) preterm labor and delivery (n=203); 3) preterm premature rupture of the membranes (n=112); 4) preeclampsia (n=230); 5) small-for-gestational-age neonate (n=334); and 6) other pregnancy complications (n=182). Maternal plasma concentrations of PlGF and sFlt-1 were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in 7560 longitudinal samples. Placental pathologists, masked to clinical outcomes, diagnosed the presence or absence of placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion. Comparisons between mean biomarker concentrations in cases and controls were performed by utilizing longitudinal generalized additive models. Comparisons were made between controls and each obstetrical syndrome with and without subclassifying cases according to the presence or absence of placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion. RESULTS 1) When obstetrical syndromes are classified based on the presence or absence of placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion, significant differences in the mean plasma concentrations of PlGF, sFlt-1, and the PlGF/sFlt-1 ratio between cases and controls emerge earlier in gestation; 2) the strength of association between an abnormal PlGF/sFlt-1 ratio and the occurrence of obstetrical syndromes increases when placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion are present (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 13.6 vs 6.7 for preeclampsia; aOR, 8.1 vs 4.4 for small-for-gestational-age neonates; aOR, 5.5 vs 2.1 for preterm premature rupture of the membranes; and aOR, 3.3 vs 2.1 for preterm labor (all P<0.05); and 3) the PlGF/sFlt-1 ratio at 28 to 32 weeks of gestation is abnormal in patients who subsequently delivered due to preterm labor with intact membranes and in those with preterm premature rupture of the membranes if both groups have placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion. Such association is not significant in patients with these obstetrical syndromes who do not have placental lesions. CONCLUSION Classification of obstetrical syndromes according to the presence or absence of placental lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion allows biomarkers to be informative earlier in gestation and enhances the strength of association between biomarkers and clinical outcomes. We propose that a new taxonomy of obstetrical disorders informed by placental pathology will facilitate the discovery and implementation of biomarkers as well as the prediction and prevention of such disorders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Romero
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; Center for Molecular Medicine and Genetics, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI; Detroit Medical Center, Detroit, MI.
| | - Eunjung Jung
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Tinnakorn Chaiworapongsa
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Offer Erez
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Faculty of Health Sciences, Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Maternity Department "D," Soroka University Medical Center, School of Medicine, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beersheba, Israel; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, HaEmek Medical Center, Afula, Israel
| | - Dereje W Gudicha
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Yeon Mee Kim
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung-Sun Kim
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Bomi Kim
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea
| | - Juan Pedro Kusanovic
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; División de Obstetricia y Ginecología, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Medicina Materno-Fetal, Unidad de Alto Riesgo Obstétrico, Hospital Sotero Del Rio, Santiago, Chile
| | - Francesca Gotsch
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Andreea B Taran
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Bo Hyun Yoon
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Biomedical Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sonia S Hassan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Office of Women's Health, Integrative Biosciences Center, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI; Department of Physiology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Chaur-Dong Hsu
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Physiology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Arizona, College of Medicine - Tucson, Tucson, AZ
| | - Piya Chaemsaithong
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Faculty of Medicine, Division of Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Nardhy Gomez-Lopez
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Lami Yeo
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI
| | - Chong Jai Kim
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Pathology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Adi L Tarca
- Perinatology Research Branch, Divisions of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine and Intramural Research, US Department of Health and Human Services, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, and Detroit, MI; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Department of Computer Science, Wayne State University College of Engineering, Detroit, MI
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