Is it possible to build financially sucessful new towns? The Milton Keyness experience

New Towns’ Planning and Construction in the Pre-Urbanization or Post-Urbanization Period: A Case Study of the New Towns’ Development Process of Beijing

Social background and planning objectives differentiate two kinds of development modes for new towns. One starts in the period of post-urbanization and post-industrialization and is committed to improving living conditions and dispersing urban central areas. The other begins in the stage of pre-urbanization and pre-industrialization with the purpose of promoting the development of urbanization and industrialization. However, academics have not given enough attention to researching the relationship between the different modes and their respective social backgrounds. This paper first proposes these two kinds of development modes and analyses how their different social contexts and institutional backgrounds lead to different planning and construction characteristics. Then, taking Beijing as an example, this paper presents a complete review of the development and transformation history of the planning and construction of China’s new towns with different urbanization levels and in an institutional context. The whole history and transformation process can be considered a demonstration and evolution of the two different development modes. Accordingly, by analyzing the respective characteristics and transformation processes in different periods, this study reveals the impact of social background on the new towns’ development and the problems caused by different development modes.

Linking ecosystem services, urban form and green space configuration using multivariate landscape metric analysis

CONTEXT

Landscape metrics represent powerful tools for quantifying landscape structure, but uncertainties persist around their interpretation. Urban settings add unique considerations, containing habitat structures driven by the surrounding built-up environment. Understanding urban ecosystems, however, should focus on the habitats rather than the matrix.

OBJECTIVES

We coupled a multivariate approach with landscape metric analysis to overcome existing shortcomings in interpretation. We then explored relationships between landscape characteristics and modelled ecosystem service provision.

METHODS

We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to isolate the most effective measures of landscape variability and then grouped habitat patches according to their attributes, independent of the surrounding urban form. We compared results to the modelled provision of three ecosystem services. Seven classes resulting from cluster analysis were separated primarily on patch area, and secondarily by measures of shape complexity and inter-patch distance.

RESULTS

When compared to modelled ecosystem services, larger patches up to 10 ha in size consistently stored more carbon per area and supported more pollinators, while exhibiting a greater risk of soil erosion. Smaller, isolated patches showed the opposite, and patches larger than 10 ha exhibited no additional areal benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Multivariate landscape metric analysis offers greater confidence and consistency than analysing landscape metrics individually. Independent classification avoids the influence of the urban matrix surrounding habitats of interest, and allows patches to be grouped according to their own attributes. Such a grouping is useful as it may correlate more strongly with the characteristics of landscape structure that directly affect ecosystem function.

A bird's eye view: using circuit theory to study urban landscape connectivity for birds

CONTEXT

Connectivity is fundamental to understanding how landscape form influences ecological function. However, uncertainties persist due to the difficulty and expense of gathering empirical data to drive or to validate connectivity models, especially in urban areas, where relationships are multifaceted and the habitat matrix cannot be considered to be binary.

OBJECTIVES

This research used circuit theory to model urban bird flows (i.e. 'current'), and compared results to observed abundance. The aims were to explore the ability of this approach to predict wildlife flows and to test relationships between modelled connectivity and variation in abundance.

METHODS

Circuitscape was used to model functional connectivity in Bedford, Luton/Dunstable, and Milton Keynes, UK, for great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), drawing parameters from published studies of woodland bird flows in urban environments. Model performance was then tested against observed abundance data.

RESULTS

Modelled current showed a weak yet positive agreement with combined abundance for P. major and C. caeruleus. Weaker correlations were found for other woodland species, suggesting the approach may be expandable if re-parameterised.

CONCLUSIONS

Trees provide suitable habitat for urban woodland bird species, but their location in large, contiguous patches and corridors along barriers also facilitates connectivity networks throughout the urban matrix. Urban connectivity studies are well-served by the advantages of circuit theory approaches, and benefit from the empirical study of wildlife flows in these landscapes to parameterise this type of modelling more explicitly. Such results can prove informative and beneficial in designing urban green space and new developments.

ON THE ANALYSIS OF PROPERTY UNIT SALES OVER TIME / NEKILNOJAMOJO TURTO VIENETO PARDAVIMO KAINOS ANALIZĖ LAIKO ATŽVILGIU

Investors in multiple unit developments, such as apartments, townhouses, condominiums and connected dwellings, rely on a stream of sales in order to achieve a viable cash flow, a dominant issue. At the feasibility phase of a development, sales over time are estimated, and commonly this is done deterministically. However, with uncertainty in sales, such estimates may not be realised when the market is tested, and the investor's hoped-for cash flow may not be attained. Accordingly some acknowledgment of this uncertainty should be made in order to assess the associated risks. In this light, the paper presents an analysis of sales over time where uncertainty in sales is taken into account. The underlying model developed is based on Markov chains, specifically adapted to sales. Actual development data are used to illustrate the paper's approach and conclusions. The model provides useful core information on sales, both in quantum and timing, to the investor. The model provides a tool useful to practitioners, and one complementary to their existing sales analysis approaches. The paper provides an original contribution, and one of practical use, to established investor practices in the analysis of sales of multiple unit developments. Santrauka Investuojantys į tokio nekilnojamojo turto statybas, kaip daugiabučiai, blokuoti namai ir namų kompleksai, tikisi sklandaus pardavimo, nes turi susidaryti pakankami pinigų srautai, ir tai yra svarbiausias klausimas. Rengiant būsimų statybų galimybių studiją, vertinamas pardavimas bėgant laikui, ir tai paprastai daroma deterministiškai. Tačiau pardavimo apimtis nėra užtikrinta, tad, bandant rinką, nustatytos vertės gali likti nepasiektos, investuotojai gali negauti tokių pinigų srautų, kokių tikėjosi. Taigi, norint įvertinti susijusią riziką, reikia atsižvelgti į tokį netikrumą. Dėl to straipsnyje pateikiama pardavimo bėgant laikui analizė, kurioje atsižvelgiama į tai, kad pardavimo apimtis nėra užtikrinta. Pagrindinis sukurtas modelis grindžiamas Markovo grandinėmis, kurios specialiai pritaikomos pardavimui. Darbe pateikiamas požiūris ir išvados pristatomos naudojant realius statybų duomenis. Investuotojui modelis suteikia esminę naudingą informaciją apie pardavimą – tiek apie kiekį, tiek apie laiką. Modelis bus parankus praktikams ir papildys turimus pardavimo analizės būdus. Originalus ir praktinis darbo indėlis papildys įprastus metodus, kuriuos investuotojai taiko analizuodami būsto pardavimą.