How much illegally manufactured fentanyl could the U.S. be consuming?

Improving Estimates of the Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in the United States: Revising Keyes et al

OBJECTIVES

The United States faces an ongoing drug overdose crisis, but accurate information on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) remains limited. A recent analysis by Keyes et al used a multiplier approach with drug poisoning mortality data to estimate OUD prevalence. Although insightful, this approach made stringent and partly inconsistent assumptions in interpreting mortality data, particularly synthetic opioid (SO)-involved and non-opioid-involved mortality. We revise that approach and resulting estimates to resolve inconsistencies and examine several alternative assumptions.

METHODS

We examine 4 adjustments to Keyes and colleagues' estimation approach: (A) revising how the equations account for SO effects on mortality, (B) incorporating fentanyl prevalence data to inform estimates of SO lethality, (C) using opioid-involved drug poisoning data to estimate a plausible range for OUD prevalence, and (D) adjusting mortality data to account for underreporting of opioid involvement.

RESULTS

Revising the estimation equation and SO lethality effect (adj. A and B) while using Keyes and colleagues' original assumption that people with OUD account for all fatal drug poisonings yields slightly higher estimates, with OUD population reaching 9.3 million in 2016 before declining to 7.6 million by 2019. Using only opioid-involved drug poisoning data (adj. C and D) provides a lower range, peaking at 6.4 million in 2014-2015 and declining to 3.8 million in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The revised estimation equation presented is feasible and addresses limitations of the earlier method and hence should be used in future estimations. Alternative assumptions around drug poisoning data can also provide a plausible range of estimates for OUD population.

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Extended access to fentanyl vapor self-administration leads to addiction-like behaviors in mice: Blood chemokine/cytokine levels as potential biomarkers

Rodent models are useful for understanding the mechanisms that underlie opioid addiction, but most preclinical studies have focused on rewarding and consummatory aspects of opioids without components of dependence-induced escalation of drug taking or seeking. We characterized several opioid-related behaviors in mice using a model of vaporized fentanyl self-administration. Male and female C57BL/6J mice were assigned to short-access (ShA; 1 h, nondependent) or long-access (LgA; 6 h, dependent) fentanyl vapor self-administration and subsequently tested in a battery of behavioral tests, followed by blood collection during withdrawal. Compared with mice in the ShA group, mice in the LgA group escalated their fentanyl intake, were more motivated to work to obtain the drug, exhibited greater hyperalgesia, and exhibited greater signs of naloxone-precipitated withdrawal. Principal component analysis indicated the emergence of two independent behavioral constructs: "intake/motivation" and "hyperalgesia/punished seeking." In mice in the LgA condition only, "hyperalgesia/punished seeking" was associated with plasma levels of proinflammatory interleukin-17 (IL-17), chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 4 (CCL-4), and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α). Overall, the results suggest that extended access to opioids leads to addiction-like behavior, and some constructs that are associated with addiction-like behavior may be associated with levels of the proinflammatory cytokines/chemokines IL-17, TNF-α, and CCL-4 in blood.