Prediction Accuracy Measures for a Nonlinear Model and for Right-Censored Time-to-Event Data

Generalizability of polygenic prediction models: how is the R2 defined on test data?

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) quantify an individual's genetic predisposition for different traits and are expected to play an increasingly important role in personalized medicine. A crucial challenge in clinical practice is the generalizability and transferability of PRS models to populations with different ancestries. When assessing the generalizability of PRS models for continuous traits, the R 2 is a commonly used measure to evaluate prediction accuracy. While the R 2 is a well-defined goodness-of-fit measure for statistical linear models, there exist different definitions for its application on test data, which complicates interpretation and comparison of results.

METHODS

Based on large-scale genotype data from the UK Biobank, we compare three definitions of the R 2 on test data for evaluating the generalizability of PRS models to different populations. Polygenic models for several phenotypes, including height, BMI and lipoprotein A, are derived based on training data with European ancestry using state-of-the-art regression methods and are evaluated on various test populations with different ancestries.

RESULTS

Our analysis shows that the choice of the R 2  definition can lead to considerably different results on test data, making the comparison of R 2  values from the literature problematic. While the definition as the squared correlation between predicted and observed phenotypes solely addresses the discriminative performance and always yields values between 0 and 1, definitions of the R 2 based on the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) with reference to intercept-only models assess both discrimination and calibration. These MSPE-based definitions can yield negative values indicating miscalibrated predictions for out-of-target populations. We argue that the choice of the most appropriate definition depends on the aim of PRS analysis - whether it primarily serves for risk stratification or also for individual phenotype prediction. Moreover, both correlation-based and MSPE-based definitions of R 2 can provide valuable complementary information.

CONCLUSIONS

Awareness of the different definitions of the R 2 on test data is necessary to facilitate the reporting and interpretation of results on PRS generalizability. It is recommended to explicitly state which definition was used when reporting R 2 values on test data. Further research is warranted to develop and evaluate well-calibrated polygenic models for diverse populations.

Immune checkpoint blockade induces distinct alterations in the microenvironments of primary and metastatic brain tumors

In comparison with responses in recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM), the intracranial response of brain metastases (BrM) to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) is less well studied. Here, we present an integrated single-cell RNA-Seq (scRNA-Seq) study of 19 ICB-naive and 9 ICB-treated BrM samples from our own and published data sets. We compared them with our previously published scRNA-Seq data from rGBM and found that ICB led to more prominent T cell infiltration into BrM than rGBM. These BrM-infiltrating T cells exhibited a tumor-specific phenotype and displayed greater activated/exhausted features. We also used multiplex immunofluorescence and spatial transcriptomics to reveal that ICB reduced a distinct CD206+ macrophage population in the perivascular space, which may modulate T cell entry into BrM. Furthermore, we identified a subset of progenitor exhausted T cells that correlated with longer overall survival in BrM patients. Our study provides a comprehensive immune cellular landscape of ICB's effect on metastatic brain tumors and offers insights into potential strategies for improving ICB efficacy for brain tumor patients.

Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Generalized Linear Models: A Splitting and Smoothing Approach

The focus of modern biomedical studies has gradually shifted to explanation and estimation of joint effects of high dimensional predictors on disease risks. Quantifying uncertainty in these estimates may provide valuable insight into prevention strategies or treatment decisions for both patients and physicians. High dimensional inference, including confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, has sparked much interest. While much work has been done in the linear regression setting, there is lack of literature on inference for high dimensional generalized linear models. We propose a novel and computationally feasible method, which accommodates a variety of outcome types, including normal, binomial, and Poisson data. We use a "splitting and smoothing" approach, which splits samples into two parts, performs variable selection using one part and conducts partial regression with the other part. Averaging the estimates over multiple random splits, we obtain the smoothed estimates, which are numerically stable. We show that the estimates are consistent, asymptotically normal, and construct confidence intervals with proper coverage probabilities for all predictors. We examine the finite sample performance of our method by comparing it with the existing methods and applying it to analyze a lung cancer cohort study.

Neoadjuvant anti-PD-1 immunotherapy promotes a survival benefit with intratumoral and systemic immune responses in recurrent glioblastoma

Glioblastoma is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults and is associated with poor survival. The Ivy Foundation Early Phase Clinical Trials Consortium conducted a randomized, multi-institution clinical trial to evaluate immune responses and survival following neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant therapy with pembrolizumab in 35 patients with recurrent, surgically resectable glioblastoma. Patients who were randomized to receive neoadjuvant pembrolizumab, with continued adjuvant therapy following surgery, had significantly extended overall survival compared to patients that were randomized to receive adjuvant, post-surgical programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) blockade alone. Neoadjuvant PD-1 blockade was associated with upregulation of T cell- and interferon-γ-related gene expression, but downregulation of cell-cycle-related gene expression within the tumor, which was not seen in patients that received adjuvant therapy alone. Focal induction of programmed death-ligand 1 in the tumor microenvironment, enhanced clonal expansion of T cells, decreased PD-1 expression on peripheral blood T cells and a decreasing monocytic population was observed more frequently in the neoadjuvant group than in patients treated only in the adjuvant setting. These findings suggest that the neoadjuvant administration of PD-1 blockade enhances both the local and systemic antitumor immune response and may represent a more efficacious approach to the treatment of this uniformly lethal brain tumor.