Comparison of health-oriented cross-regional allocation strategies for the COVID-19 vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

Optimization Modeling for Pandemic Vaccine Supply Chain Management: A Review and Future Research Opportunities

During various stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries implemented diverse vaccine management approaches, influenced by variations in infrastructure and socio-economic conditions. This article provides a comprehensive overview of optimization models developed by the research community throughout the COVID-19 era, aimed at enhancing vaccine distribution and establishing a standardized framework for future pandemic preparedness. These models address critical issues such as site selection, inventory management, allocation strategies, distribution logistics, and route optimization encountered during the COVID-19 crisis. A unified framework is employed to describe the models, emphasizing their integration with epidemiological models to facilitate a holistic understanding. This article also summarizes evolving nature of literature, relevant research gaps, and authors' perspectives for model selection. Finally, future research scopes are detailed both in the context of modeling and solutions approaches.

Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023, 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters.