State firearm laws, gun ownership, and K-12 school shootings: Implications for school safety

Gun-free zones and active shootings in the United States: a matched case-control study

Background

Most Americans believe that gun-free zones make locations more vulnerable to violent crimes, particularly active shootings. However, there is no empirical evidence regarding the impact of gun-free zones on protecting locations from violence. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between gun-free zones and active shootings.

Methods

We used a pair-matched case-control study where cases were all US establishments where active shootings occurred between 2014 and 2020, and controls were randomly selected US establishments where active shootings could have but did not occur, pair-matched by establishment type, year, and county. Gun-free status of included establishments was determined via local laws, company policy, news reporting, Google Maps and posted signage, and calling establishments.

Findings

Of 150 active shooting cases, 72 (48.0%) were determined to have occurred in a gun-free zone. Of 150 controls where no active shooting occurred, 92 (61.3%) were determined to be gun-free. After accounting for matched pairs, the conditional odds of an active shooting in gun-free establishments were 0.38 times those in non-gun-free establishments, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19-0.73 (p-value = 0.0038). Several robustness analyses affirmed these findings.

Interpretation

It is unlikely that gun-free zones attract active shooters; gun-free zones may be protective against active shootings. This study challenges the proposition of repealing gun-free zones based on safety concerns.

Funding

This work was funded in part by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research and the Arnold Foundation.

School Violence Exposure as an Adverse Childhood Experience: Protocol for a Nationwide Study of Secondary Public Schools

BACKGROUND

Poor mental health and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) predict extensive adverse outcomes in youth, including increases in long-term risk for chronic disease and injury, impaired emotional development, and poor academic outcomes. Exposure to school violence, specifically intentional gun violence, is an increasingly prevalent ACE. The anticipation of school shootings has led to the implementation of school safety and security interventions that may increase anxiety, depression, and other indicators of poor mental well-being among students and staff alike. Despite this, the association between exposure to existing school safety interventions and early adolescent student mental health outcomes, while accounting for one's history of ACEs, has not been previously investigated.

OBJECTIVE

The study protocol described here aims to determine whether there is a significant difference in the prevalence of mental health outcomes, perceived school safety, and academic engagement between adolescent students (grades 6-12) at schools who have experienced a school shooting and those who have not; whether existing interventions to promote school safety and security are associated with poor mental health outcomes among students and school staff; and what the strength of the association between school safety interventions and mental health outcomes among students and teachers is in schools that have experienced a school shooting versus schools that have never experienced a school shooting.

METHODS

This observational study will collect cross-sectional survey data from a nationwide sample of students, teachers, and principals at 12 secondary public schools across the United States. The participants come from 6 randomly selected exposure schools that have either experienced a recent (<2 years ago) intentional school shooting or have experienced an intentional school shooting less recently (>2 years ago). Data from these schools are being directly compared with 6 secondary schools that have never experienced a school shooting.

RESULTS

Institutional review board approval for this research project was obtained and the study subsequently began its recruitment and data collection phase in January 2024. Data collection is currently ongoing and the expected completion date is January 2025. The analytic plan is designed to determine if the strength of the association between school safety interventions and mental health outcomes differs among students and school staff in schools with varying levels of school violence exposure. Analyses will be used to evaluate the role of ACEs on the relationships among exposure to an intentional school shooting, exposure to school safety strategies, and student outcomes (ie, mental health and well-being, perceptions of school safety, and educational outcomes).

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this study promise to generate meaningful and novel findings on the extent to which having a prior history of ACEs moderates the relationships among exposure to intentional school gun violence, school safety strategies, and student outcomes (ie, mental health and well-being, and perceptions of school safety).

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06153316; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06153316.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/56249.

Firearm ownership and storage among US college students: results from the healthy minds study, 2021-2022

The purpose of this study is to address a significant gap in knowledge on firearm ownership rates and storage characteristics in a national sample of college students. We used 2021-2022 survey data from the Healthy Minds Study, which included approximately 88,500 students at over 100 US colleges and universities. We conducted analyses using descriptive statistics and two-sample proportion tests. About 4% of respondents reported having a firearm on or around campus. Among firearm owners, 68.8% reported storing firearms at their permanent address within an hour's drive from campus, and 43.1% reported storing their firearms unloaded and locked. Firearm ownership rates were significantly higher for respondents who were positive for specific risk factors (i.e., in a relationship, suicide ideation, recent binge drinking, and having been physically assaulted) versus those who were negative. These findings support the need for targeted messaging and firearm safety training for college students to reduce firearm-related risks.

A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Gun Ownership on Mass Shootings in the USA Between 2013 and 2022

Mass shootings (incidents with four or more people shot in a single event, not including the shooter) are becoming more frequent in the United States, posing a significant threat to public health and safety in the country. In the current study, we intended to analyze the impact of state-level prevalence of gun ownership on mass shootings-both the frequency and severity of these events. We applied the negative binomial generalized linear mixed model to investigate the association between gun ownership rate, as measured by a proxy (i.e., the proportion of suicides committed with firearms to total suicides), and population-adjusted rates of mass shooting incidents and fatalities at the state level from 2013 to 2022. Gun ownership was found to be significantly associated with the rate of mass shooting fatalities. Specifically, our model indicated that for every 1-SD increase-that is, for every 12.5% increase-in gun ownership, the rate of mass shooting fatalities increased by 34% (p value < 0.001). However, no significant association was found between gun ownership and rate of mass shooting incidents. These findings suggest that restricting gun ownership (and therefore reducing availability to guns) may not decrease the number of mass shooting events, but it may save lives when these events occur.

Adolescent sources of stress, stress levels, and associations between stress and changes in weight outcomes at the time of COVID-19 related school closure in March 2020

Objective

Stress is associated with weight changes, yet how level and sources of stress relate to this association is poorly understood. This mixed methods study examined associations between adolescent stress at the COVID-19 pandemic onset and standardized BMI (BMIz) over a three-month period. Methods: Participants (N = 197, mean age 13.66 ± 1.43 years, 85% Hispanic, 56% female) were recruited from a charter school in Texas to participate in a healthy lifestyle intervention during physical education class. We calculated BMIz using height and weight measurements taken December 2019 and the week of COVID-19 school closures in March 2020. We measured stress in March 2020 with the 4-item Perceived Stress Scale. We ran a multiple linear regression model controlling for baseline BMIz (December 2019), age, sex, intervention condition, and assessed the interaction between baseline BMIz and PSS-4 score on BMIz change.

Results

Overall, our sample had an average PSS-4 score of seven and mean BMIz decrease of 0.04 over the three-month period. We observed a significant interaction between PSS-4 score and baseline BMIz. At lower baseline BMIz scores, higher PSS-4 scores were associated with decreases in BMIz over time. There was no significant association at higher baseline BMIz scores. COVID-19 pandemic-related concerns and school performance were the two primary stressors reported.

Conclusions

The relation between stress and weight changes differed based on starting weight status. Future interventions should consider the influence of external stressors on intervention adherence and outcomes.

The Impacts of Armed Conflicts and Civilian Uprisings on Children's Health

Besides the most common causes of death, children under 14 may suffer from the consequences of disasters and emergencies caused by natural and manmade risks and hazards. These incidents may be prevented by proper risk assessment and the prevention of unnecessary deaths by increasing the safety and well-being of children. An increasing number of manmade incidents are seen in international, non-international, and domestic conflicts when government forces use heavy and light weapons within countries with autocratic leadership. These deaths should be mitigated by holding perpetrators responsible for their deeds and respecting international humanitarian law, human rights, and children's rights.

Gun violence in K-12 schools in the United States: Moving towards a preventive (versus reactive) framework

Intentional shootings in K-12 schools in the U.S. persist as a public health problem. The number of shootings in K-12 schools has increased precipitously since 2017. And with approximately 100,000 K-12 public schools nationally serving 51 million children, investing in a comprehensive gun violence prevention strategy is critical. Unfortunately, our current school gun violence prevention approach almost exclusively centers reactive strategies that are in place to respond to acts of gun violence in the moment, rather than preventive strategies that would prevent them from occurring at all. Reliance on these strategies alone, however, is not sufficient. In line with the core tenets of public health prevention and the Whole School, Whole Child, Whole Community model, we present a more expansive school gun violence prevention framework that broadens the spectrum of what constitutes "school gun violence prevention." Our work highlights how enhancing basic neighborhood and school structures-including investments in public libraries, affordable housing, and universal school-based violence prevention programs-are key to both preventing gun violence and promoting well-being. We also highlight the role of stricter gun laws, reasonable school security efforts, bystander interventions, building awareness within school communities, and meaningful investments in early interventions and mental health services. Children, who have been tragically exposed to any number of adverse experiences in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, deserve more reasoned choices and large-scale investments in understanding and cutting off the root causes of school gun violence; not just a reliance on strategies that focus on what to do in the moment of a violent act. As gun violence in K-12 schools persists, we must reframe the discourse about school gun violence around prevention, not reaction.