Modeling evolution using the probability of fixation: history and implications

PopMLvis: a tool for analysis and visualization of population structure using genotype data from genome-wide association studies

One of the aims of population genetics is to identify genetic differences/similarities among individuals of multiple ancestries. Many approaches including principal component analysis, clustering, and maximum likelihood techniques can be used to assign individuals to a given ancestry based on their genetic makeup. Although there are several tools that implement such algorithms, there is a lack of interactive visual platforms to run a variety of algorithms in one place. Therefore, we developed PopMLvis, a platform that offers an interactive environment to visualize genetic similarity data using several algorithms, and generate figures that can be easily integrated into scientific articles.

Genetic and selective constraints on the optimization of gene product diversity

RNA and protein expressed from the same gene can have diverse isoforms due to various post-transcriptional and post-translational modifications. For the vast majority of alternative isoforms, It is unknown whether they are adaptive or simply biological noise. As we cannot experimentally probe the function of each isoform, we can ask whether the distribution of isoforms across genes and across species is consistent with expectations from different evolutionary processes. However, there is currently no theoretical framework that can generate such predictions. To address this, we developed a mathematical model where isoform abundances are determined collectively by cis-acting loci, trans-acting factors, gene expression levels, and isoform decay rates to predict isoform abundance distributions across species and genes in the face of mutation, genetic drift, and selection. We found that factors beyond selection, such as effective population size and the number of cis-acting loci, significantly influence evolutionary outcomes. Notably, suboptimal phenotypes are more likely to evolve when the population is small and/or when the number of cis-loci is large. We also explored scenarios where modification processes have both beneficial and detrimental effects, revealing a non-monotonic relationship between effective population size and optimization, demonstrating how opposing selection pressures on cis- and trans-acting loci can constrain the optimization of gene product diversity. As a demonstration of the power of our theory, we compared the expected distribution of A-to-I RNA editing levels in coleoids and found this to be largely consistent with non-adaptive explanations.

Fixation times of de novo and standing beneficial variants in subdivided populations

The rate at which beneficial alleles fix in a population depends on the probability of and time to fixation of such alleles. Both of these quantities can be significantly impacted by population subdivision and limited gene flow. Here, we investigate how limited dispersal influences the rate of fixation of beneficial de novo mutations, as well as fixation time from standing genetic variation. We investigate this for a population structured according to the island model of dispersal allowing us to use the diffusion approximation, which we complement with simulations. We find that fixation may take on average fewer generations under limited dispersal than under panmixia when selection is moderate. This is especially the case if adaptation occurs from de novo recessive mutations, and dispersal is not too limited (such that approximately FST<0.2). The reason is that mildly limited dispersal leads to only a moderate increase in effective population size (which slows down fixation), but is sufficient to cause a relative excess of homozygosity due to inbreeding, thereby exposing rare recessive alleles to selection (which accelerates fixation). We also explore the effect of metapopulation dynamics through local extinction followed by recolonization, finding that such dynamics always accelerate fixation from standing genetic variation, while de novo mutations show faster fixation interspersed with longer waiting times. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for the detection of sweeps, suggesting that limited dispersal mitigates the expected differences between the genetic signatures of sweeps involving recessive and dominant alleles.

Non-Poissonian Bursts in the Arrival of Phenotypic Variation Can Strongly Affect the Dynamics of Adaptation

Modeling the rate at which adaptive phenotypes appear in a population is a key to predicting evolutionary processes. Given random mutations, should this rate be modeled by a simple Poisson process, or is a more complex dynamics needed? Here we use analytic calculations and simulations of evolving populations on explicit genotype-phenotype maps to show that the introduction of novel phenotypes can be "bursty" or overdispersed. In other words, a novel phenotype either appears multiple times in quick succession or not at all for many generations. These bursts are fundamentally caused by statistical fluctuations and other structure in the map from genotypes to phenotypes. Their strength depends on population parameters, being highest for "monomorphic" populations with low mutation rates. They can also be enhanced by additional inhomogeneities in the mapping from genotypes to phenotypes. We mainly investigate the effect of bursts using the well-studied genotype-phenotype map for RNA secondary structure, but find similar behavior in a lattice protein model and in Richard Dawkins's biomorphs model of morphological development. Bursts can profoundly affect adaptive dynamics. Most notably, they imply that fitness differences play a smaller role in determining which phenotype fixes than would be the case for a Poisson process without bursts.

Mutation bias and adaptation in bacteria

Genetic mutation, which provides the raw material for evolutionary adaptation, is largely a stochastic force. However, there is ample evidence showing that mutations can also exhibit strong biases, with some mutation types and certain genomic positions mutating more often than others. It is becoming increasingly clear that mutational bias can play a role in determining adaptive outcomes in bacteria in both the laboratory and the clinic. As such, understanding the causes and consequences of mutation bias can help microbiologists to anticipate and predict adaptive outcomes. In this review, we provide an overview of the mechanisms and features of the bacterial genome that cause mutational biases to occur. We then describe the environmental triggers that drive these mechanisms to be more potent and outline the adaptive scenarios where mutation bias can synergize with natural selection to define evolutionary outcomes. We conclude by describing how understanding mutagenic genomic features can help microbiologists predict areas sensitive to mutational bias, and finish by outlining future work that will help us achieve more accurate evolutionary forecasts.

Mutation and Selection Induce Correlations between Selection Coefficients and Mutation Rates

AbstractThe joint distribution of selection coefficients and mutation rates is a key determinant of the genetic architecture of molecular adaptation. Three different distributions are of immediate interest: (1) the "nominal" distribution of possible changes, prior to mutation or selection; (2) the "de novo" distribution of realized mutations; and (3) the "fixed" distribution of selectively established mutations. Here, we formally characterize the relationships between these joint distributions under the strong-selection/weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. The de novo distribution is enriched relative to the nominal distribution for the highest rate mutations, and the fixed distribution is further enriched for the most highly beneficial mutations. Whereas mutation rates and selection coefficients are often assumed to be uncorrelated, we show that even with no correlation in the nominal distribution, the resulting de novo and fixed distributions can have correlations with any combination of signs. Nonetheless, we suggest that natural systems with a finite number of beneficial mutations will frequently have the kind of nominal distribution that induces negative correlations in the fixed distribution. We apply our mathematical framework, along with population simulations, to explore joint distributions of selection coefficients and mutation rates from deep mutational scanning and cancer informatics. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of these joint distributions together with two additional joint distributions relevant to parallelism and the rate of adaptation.

Revisiting the Role of Genetic Variation in Adaptation

AbstractEvolutionary biologists have thought about the role of genetic variation during adaptation for a very long time-before we understood the organization of the genetic code, the provenance of genetic variation, and how such variation influenced the phenotypes on which natural selection acts. Half a century after the discovery of the structure of DNA and the unraveling of the genetic code, we have a rich understanding of these problems and the means to both delve deeper and widen our perspective across organisms and natural populations. The 2022 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists highlighted examples of recent insights into the role of genetic variation in adaptive processes, which are compiled in this special section. The work was conducted in different parts of the world, included theoretical and empirical studies with diverse organisms, and addressed distinct aspects of how genetic variation influences adaptation. In our introductory article to the special section, we discuss some important recent insights about the generation and maintenance of genetic variation, its impacts on phenotype and fitness, its fate in natural populations, and its role in driving adaptation. By placing the special section articles in the broader context of recent developments, we hope that this overview will also serve as a useful introduction to the field.

Self-loops in evolutionary graph theory: Friends or foes?

Evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured populations has been studied for a long time. More recently, the focus has been to construct structures that amplify selection by fixing beneficial mutations with higher probability than the well-mixed population and lower probability of fixation for deleterious mutations. It has been shown that for a structure to substantially amplify selection, self-loops are necessary when mutants appear predominately in nodes that change often. As a result, for low mutation rates, self-looped amplifiers attain higher steady-state average fitness in the mutation-selection balance than well-mixed populations. But what happens when the mutation rate increases such that fixation probabilities alone no longer describe the dynamics? We show that self-loops effects are detrimental outside the low mutation rate regime. In the intermediate and high mutation rate regime, amplifiers of selection attain lower steady-state average fitness than the complete graph and suppressors of selection. We also provide an estimate of the mutation rate beyond which the mutation-selection dynamics on a graph deviates from the weak mutation rate approximation. It involves computing average fixation time scaling with respect to the population sizes for several graphs.

Evolutionary trade-off and mutational bias could favor transcriptional over translational divergence within paralog pairs

How changes in the different steps of protein synthesis-transcription, translation and degradation-contribute to differences of protein abundance among genes is not fully understood. There is however accumulating evidence that transcriptional divergence might have a prominent role. Here, we show that yeast paralogous genes are more divergent in transcription than in translation. We explore two causal mechanisms for this predominance of transcriptional divergence: an evolutionary trade-off between the precision and economy of gene expression and a larger mutational target size for transcription. Performing simulations within a minimal model of post-duplication evolution, we find that both mechanisms are consistent with the observed divergence patterns. We also investigate how additional properties of the effects of mutations on gene expression, such as their asymmetry and correlation across levels of regulation, can shape the evolution of paralogs. Our results highlight the importance of fully characterizing the distributions of mutational effects on transcription and translation. They also show how general trade-offs in cellular processes and mutation bias can have far-reaching evolutionary impacts.

Mutation bias and the predictability of evolution

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Impact of population size on early adaptation in rugged fitness landscapes

Owing to stochastic fluctuations arising from finite population size, known as genetic drift, the ability of a population to explore a rugged fitness landscape depends on its size. In the weak mutation regime, while the mean steady-state fitness increases with population size, we find that the height of the first fitness peak encountered when starting from a random genotype displays various behaviours versus population size, even among small and simple rugged landscapes. We show that the accessibility of the different fitness peaks is key to determining whether this height overall increases or decreases with population size. Furthermore, there is often a finite population size that maximizes the height of the first fitness peak encountered when starting from a random genotype. This holds across various classes of model rugged landscapes with sparse peaks, and in some experimental and experimentally inspired ones. Thus, early adaptation in rugged fitness landscapes can be more efficient and predictable for relatively small population sizes than in the large-size limit. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Distribution of mutation rates challenges evolutionary predictability

Natural selection is commonly assumed to act on extensive standing genetic variation. Yet, accumulating evidence highlights the role of mutational processes creating this genetic variation: to become evolutionarily successful, adaptive mutants must not only reach fixation, but also emerge in the first place, i.e. have a high enough mutation rate. Here, we use numerical simulations to investigate how mutational biases impact our ability to observe rare mutational pathways in the laboratory and to predict outcomes in experimental evolution. We show that unevenness in the rates at which mutational pathways produce adaptive mutants means that most experimental studies lack power to directly observe the full range of adaptive mutations. Modelling mutation rates as a distribution, we show that a substantially larger target size ensures that a pathway mutates more commonly. Therefore, we predict that commonly mutated pathways are conserved between closely related species, but not rarely mutated pathways. This approach formalizes our proposal that most mutations have a lower mutation rate than the average mutation rate measured experimentally. We suggest that the extent of genetic variation is overestimated when based on the average mutation rate.

Carry-over effects and fitness trade-offs in marine life histories: The costs of complexity for adaptation

Most marine organisms have complex life histories, where the individual stages of a life cycle are often morphologically and ecologically distinct. Nevertheless, life-history stages share a single genome and are linked phenotypically (by "carry-over effects"). These commonalities across the life history couple the evolutionary dynamics of different stages and provide an arena for evolutionary constraints. The degree to which genetic and phenotypic links among stages hamper adaptation in any one stage remains unclear and yet adaptation is essential if marine organisms will adapt to future climates. Here, we use an extension of Fisher's geometric model to explore how both carry-over effects and genetic links among life-history stages affect the emergence of pleiotropic trade-offs between fitness components of different stages. We subsequently explore the evolutionary trajectories of adaptation of each stage to its optimum using a simple model of stage-specific viability selection with nonoverlapping generations. We show that fitness trade-offs between stages are likely to be common and that such trade-offs naturally emerge through either divergent selection or mutation. We also find that evolutionary conflicts among stages should escalate during adaptation, but carry-over effects can ameliorate this conflict. Carry-over effects also tip the evolutionary balance in favor of better survival in earlier life-history stages at the expense of poorer survival in later stages. This effect arises in our discrete-generation framework and is, therefore, unrelated to age-related declines in the efficacy of selection that arise in models with overlapping generations. Our results imply a vast scope for conflicting selection between life-history stages, with pervasive evolutionary constraints emerging from initially modest selection differences between stages. Organisms with complex life histories should also be more constrained in their capacity to adapt to global change than those with simple life histories.

The structure of genotype-phenotype maps makes fitness landscapes navigable

Fitness landscapes are often described in terms of 'peaks' and 'valleys', indicating an intuitive low-dimensional landscape of the kind encountered in everyday experience. The space of genotypes, however, is extremely high dimensional, which results in counter-intuitive structural properties of genotype-phenotype maps. Here we show that these properties, such as the presence of pervasive neutral networks, make fitness landscapes navigable. For three biologically realistic genotype-phenotype map models-RNA secondary structure, protein tertiary structure and protein complexes-we find that, even under random fitness assignment, fitness maxima can be reached from almost any other phenotype without passing through fitness valleys. This in turn indicates that true fitness valleys are very rare. By considering evolutionary simulations between pairs of real examples of functional RNA sequences, we show that accessible paths are also likely to be used under evolutionary dynamics. Our findings have broad implications for the prediction of natural evolutionary outcomes and for directed evolution.

Suppressors of fixation can increase average fitness beyond amplifiers of selection

Evolutionary dynamics on graphs has remarkable features: For example, it has been shown that amplifiers of selection exist that-compared to an unstructured population-increase the fixation probability of advantageous mutations, while they decrease the fixation probability of disadvantageous mutations. So far, the theoretical literature has focused on the case of a single mutant entering a graph-structured population, asking how the graph affects the probability that a mutant takes over a population and the time until this typically happens. For continuously evolving systems, the more relevant case is that mutants constantly arise in an evolving population. Typically, such mutations occur with a small probability during reproduction events. We thus focus on the low mutation rate limit. The probability distribution for the fitness in this process converges to a steady state at long times. Intuitively, amplifiers of selection are expected to increase the population's mean fitness in the steady state. Similarly, suppressors of selection are expected to decrease the population's mean fitness in the steady state. However, we show that another set of graphs, called suppressors of fixation, can attain the highest population mean fitness. The key reason behind this is their ability to efficiently reject deleterious mutants. This illustrates the importance of the deleterious mutant regime for the long-term evolutionary dynamics, something that seems to have been overlooked in the literature so far.

Multivariate selection and the making and breaking of mutational pleiotropy

The role of mutations have been subject to many controversies since the formation of the Modern Synthesis of evolution in the early 1940ties. Geneticists in the early half of the twentieth century tended to view mutations as a limiting factor in evolutionary change. In contrast, natural selection was largely viewed as a “sieve” whose main role was to sort out the unfit but which could not create anything novel alone. This view gradually changed with the development of mathematical population genetics theory, increased appreciation of standing genetic variation and the discovery of more complex forms of selection, including balancing selection. Short-term evolutionary responses to selection are mainly influenced by standing genetic variation, and are predictable to some degree using information about the genetic variance–covariance matrix (G) and the strength and form of selection (e. g. the vector of selection gradients, β). However, predicting long-term evolution is more challenging, and requires information about the nature and supply of novel mutations, summarized by the mutational variance–covariance matrix (M). Recently, there has been increased attention to the role of mutations in general and M in particular. Some evolutionary biologists argue that evolution is largely mutation-driven and claim that mutation bias frequently results in mutation-biased adaptation. Strong similarities between G and M have also raised questions about the non-randomness of mutations. Moreover, novel mutations are typically not isotropic in their phenotypic effects and mutational pleiotropy is common. Here I discuss the evolutionary origin and consequences of mutational pleiotropy and how multivariate selection directly shapes G and indirectly M through changed epistatic relationships. I illustrate these ideas by reviewing recent literature and models about correlational selection, evolution of G and M, sexual selection and the fitness consequences of sexual antagonism.

Population genetics of polymorphism and divergence in rapidly evolving populations

In rapidly evolving populations, numerous beneficial and deleterious mutations can arise and segregate within a population at the same time. In this regime, evolutionary dynamics cannot be analyzed using traditional population genetic approaches that assume that sites evolve independently. Instead, the dynamics of many loci must be analyzed simultaneously. Recent work has made progress by first analyzing the fitness variation within a population, and then studying how individual lineages interact with this traveling fitness wave. However, these "traveling wave" models have previously been restricted to extreme cases where selection on individual mutations is either much faster or much slower than the typical coalescent timescale Tc. In this work, we show how the traveling wave framework can be extended to intermediate regimes in which the scaled fitness effects of mutations (Tcs) are neither large nor small compared to one. This enables us to describe the dynamics of populations subject to a wide range of fitness effects, and in particular, in cases where it is not immediately clear which mutations are most important in shaping the dynamics and statistics of genetic diversity. We use this approach to derive new expressions for the fixation probabilities and site frequency spectra of mutations as a function of their scaled fitness effects, along with related results for the coalescent timescale Tc and the rate of adaptation or Muller's ratchet. We find that competition between linked mutations can have a dramatic impact on the proportions of neutral and selected polymorphisms, which is not simply summarized by the scaled selection coefficient Tcs. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for population genetic inferences.

Symmetry and simplicity spontaneously emerge from the algorithmic nature of evolution

SignificanceWhy does evolution favor symmetric structures when they only represent a minute subset of all possible forms? Just as monkeys randomly typing into a computer language will preferentially produce outputs that can be generated by shorter algorithms, so the coding theorem from algorithmic information theory predicts that random mutations, when decoded by the process of development, preferentially produce phenotypes with shorter algorithmic descriptions. Since symmetric structures need less information to encode, they are much more likely to appear as potential variation. Combined with an arrival-of-the-frequent mechanism, this algorithmic bias predicts a much higher prevalence of low-complexity (high-symmetry) phenotypes than follows from natural selection alone and also explains patterns observed in protein complexes, RNA secondary structures, and a gene regulatory network.

Mutation bias shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions

How do mutational biases influence the process of adaptation? A common assumption is that selection alone determines the course of adaptation from abundant preexisting variation. Yet, theoretical work shows broad conditions under which the mutation rate to a given type of variant strongly influences its probability of contributing to adaptation. Here we introduce a statistical approach to analyzing how mutation shapes protein sequence adaptation. Using large datasets from three different species, we show that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the types of changes fixed in adaptation. We also show via computer simulations that a variety of factors can influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions reflects the spectrum of variants introduced by mutation.

Evolutionary adaptation often occurs by the fixation of beneficial mutations. This mode of adaptation can be characterized quantitatively by a spectrum of adaptive substitutions, i.e., a distribution for types of changes fixed in adaptation. Recent work establishes that the changes involved in adaptation reflect common types of mutations, raising the question of how strongly the mutation spectrum shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions. We address this question with a codon-based model for the spectrum of adaptive amino acid substitutions, applied to three large datasets covering thousands of amino acid changes identified in natural and experimental adaptation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using species-specific mutation spectra based on prior knowledge, we find that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the spectrum of adaptive substitutions in all three species. Indeed, we find that by inferring the mutation rates that best explain the spectrum of adaptive substitutions, we can accurately recover the species-specific mutation spectra. However, we also find that the predictive power of the model differs substantially between the three species. To better understand these differences, we use population simulations to explore the factors that influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions mirrors the mutation spectrum. The results show that the influence of the mutation spectrum decreases with increasing mutational supply (Nμ) and that predictive power is strongly affected by the number and diversity of beneficial mutations.

An Improved Codon Modeling Approach for Accurate Estimation of the Mutation Bias

Phylogenetic codon models are routinely used to characterize selective regimes in coding sequences. Their parametric design, however, is still a matter of debate, in particular concerning the question of how to account for differing nucleotide frequencies and substitution rates. This problem relates to the fact that nucleotide composition in protein-coding sequences is the result of the interactions between mutation and selection. In particular, because of the structure of the genetic code, the nucleotide composition differs between the three coding positions, with the third position showing a more extreme composition. Yet, phylogenetic codon models do not correctly capture this phenomenon and instead predict that the nucleotide composition should be the same for all three positions. Alternatively, some models allow for different nucleotide rates at the three positions, an approach conflating the effects of mutation and selection on nucleotide composition. In practice, it results in inaccurate estimation of the strength of selection. Conceptually, the problem comes from the fact that phylogenetic codon models do not correctly capture the fixation bias acting against the mutational pressure at the mutation–selection equilibrium. To address this problem and to more accurately identify mutation rates and selection strength, we present an improved codon modeling approach where the fixation rate is not seen as a scalar, but as a tensor. This approach gives an accurate representation of how mutation and selection oppose each other at equilibrium and yields a reliable estimate of the mutational process, while disentangling the mean fixation probabilities prevailing in different mutational directions.

Phenotype Bias Determines How Natural RNA Structures Occupy the Morphospace of All Possible Shapes

Morphospaces-representations of phenotypic characteristics-are often populated unevenly, leaving large parts unoccupied. Such patterns are typically ascribed to contingency, or else to natural selection disfavoring certain parts of the morphospace. The extent to which developmental bias, the tendency of certain phenotypes to preferentially appear as potential variation, also explains these patterns is hotly debated. Here we demonstrate quantitatively that developmental bias is the primary explanation for the occupation of the morphospace of RNA secondary structure (SS) shapes. Upon random mutations, some RNA SS shapes (the frequent ones) are much more likely to appear than others. By using the RNAshapes method to define coarse-grained SS classes, we can directly compare the frequencies that noncoding RNA SS shapes appear in the RNAcentral database to frequencies obtained upon a random sampling of sequences. We show that: 1) only the most frequent structures appear in nature; the vast majority of possible structures in the morphospace have not yet been explored; 2) remarkably small numbers of random sequences are needed to produce all the RNA SS shapes found in nature so far; and 3) perhaps most surprisingly, the natural frequencies are accurately predicted, over several orders of magnitude in variation, by the likelihood that structures appear upon a uniform random sampling of sequences. The ultimate cause of these patterns is not natural selection, but rather a strong phenotype bias in the RNA genotype-phenotype map, a type of developmental bias or "findability constraint," which limits evolutionary dynamics to a hugely reduced subset of structures that are easy to "find."

Evolutionary coupling range varies widely among enzymes depending on selection pressure

Recent studies proposed that enzyme-active sites induce evolutionary constraints at long distances. The physical origin of such long-range evolutionary coupling is unknown. Here, I use a recent biophysical model of evolution to study the relationship between physical and evolutionary couplings on a diverse data set of monomeric enzymes. I show that evolutionary coupling is not universally long-range. Rather, range varies widely among enzymes, from 2 to 20 Å. Furthermore, the evolutionary coupling range of an enzyme does not inform on the underlying physical coupling, which is short range for all enzymes. Rather, evolutionary coupling range is determined by functional selection pressure.

Allen Orr and the genetics of adaptation

Over most of the 20th century, evolutionary biologists predominantly subscribed to a strong form of "micro-mutationism," in which adaptive phenotypic divergence arises from allele frequency changes at many loci, each with a small effect on the phenotype. To be sure, there were well-known examples of large-effect alleles contributing to adaptation, yet such cases were generally regarded as atypical and unrepresentative of evolutionary change in general. In 1998, Allen Orr published a landmark theoretical paper in Evolution, which showed that both small- and large-effect mutations are likely to contribute to "adaptive walks" of a population to an optimum. Coupled with a growing set of empirical examples of large-effect alleles contributing to divergence (e.g., from QTL studies), Orr's paper provided a mathematical formalism that converted many evolutionary biologists from micro-mutationism to a more pluralistic perspective on the genetic basis of evolutionary change. We revisit the theoretical insights emerging from Orr's paper within the historical context leading up to 1998, and track the influence of this paper on the field of evolutionary biology through an examination of its citations over the last two decades and an analysis of the extensive body of theoretical and empirical research that Orr's pioneering paper inspired.

Field-theoretic density estimation for biological sequence space with applications to 5' splice site diversity and aneuploidy in cancer

Density estimation in sequence space is a fundamental problem in machine learning that is also of great importance in computational biology. Due to the discrete nature and large dimensionality of sequence space, how best to estimate such probability distributions from a sample of observed sequences remains unclear. One common strategy for addressing this problem is to estimate the probability distribution using maximum entropy (i.e., calculating point estimates for some set of correlations based on the observed sequences and predicting the probability distribution that is as uniform as possible while still matching these point estimates). Building on recent advances in Bayesian field-theoretic density estimation, we present a generalization of this maximum entropy approach that provides greater expressivity in regions of sequence space where data are plentiful while still maintaining a conservative maximum entropy character in regions of sequence space where data are sparse or absent. In particular, we define a family of priors for probability distributions over sequence space with a single hyperparameter that controls the expected magnitude of higher-order correlations. This family of priors then results in a corresponding one-dimensional family of maximum a posteriori estimates that interpolate smoothly between the maximum entropy estimate and the observed sample frequencies. To demonstrate the power of this method, we use it to explore the high-dimensional geometry of the distribution of 5' splice sites found in the human genome and to understand patterns of chromosomal abnormalities across human cancers.

Quantifying the impact of changes in effective population size and expression level on the rate of coding sequence evolution

Molecular sequences are shaped by selection, where the strength of selection relative to drift is determined by effective population size (N_e). Populations with high N_e are expected to undergo stronger purifying selection, and consequently to show a lower substitution rate for selected mutations relative to the substitution rate for neutral mutations (ω). However, computational models based on biophysics of protein stability have suggested that ω can also be independent of N_e. Together, the response of ω to changes in N_e depends on the specific mapping from sequence to fitness. Importantly, an increase in protein expression level has been found empirically to result in decrease of ω, an observation predicted by theoretical models assuming selection for protein stability. Here, we derive a theoretical approximation for the response of ω to changes in N_e and expression level, under an explicit genotype-phenotype-fitness map. The method is generally valid for additive traits and log-concave fitness functions. We applied these results to protein undergoing selection for their conformational stability and corroborate out findings with simulations under more complex models. We predict a weak response of ω to changes in either N_e or expression level, which are interchangeable. Based on empirical data, we propose that fitness based on the conformational stability may not be a sufficient mechanism to explain the empirically observed variation in ω across species. Other aspects of protein biophysics might be explored, such as protein-protein interactions, which can lead to a stronger response of ω to changes in N_e.

The variation among sites of protein structure divergence is shaped by mutation and scaled by selection

Protein structures do not evolve uniformly, but the degree of structure divergence varies among sites. The resulting site-dependent structure divergence patterns emerge from a process that involves mutation and selection, which may both, in principle, influence the emergent pattern. In contrast with sequence divergence patterns, which are known to be mainly determined by selection, the relative contributions of mutation and selection to structure divergence patterns is unclear. Here, studying 6 protein families with a mechanistic biophysical model of protein evolution, we untangle the effects of mutation and selection. We found that even in the absence of selection, structure divergence varies from site to site because the mutational sensitivity is not uniform. Selection scales the profile, increasing its amplitude, without changing its shape. This scaling effect follows from the similarity between mutational sensitivity and sequence variability profiles.

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The degree of evolutionary divergence of protein structures varies among sites.

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A Mutation-Selection model (MSM) of protein structure evolution with selection for stability is developed.

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Even in the case of no selection, the sensitivity of the structure to random mutations varies among sites. Selection amplifies this variation but it does not affect its shape.

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This scaling effect of selection follows from the similarity between the selection-independent mutational sensitivity and the selection-dependent sequence divergence, the two contributions that are combined to produce the observed structural divergence profile.

How individuals change language

Languages emerge and change over time at the population level though interactions between individual speakers. It is, however, hard to directly observe how a single speaker's linguistic innovation precipitates a population-wide change in the language, and many theoretical proposals exist. We introduce a very general mathematical model that encompasses a wide variety of individual-level linguistic behaviours and provides statistical predictions for the population-level changes that result from them. This model allows us to compare the likelihood of empirically-attested changes in definite and indefinite articles in multiple languages under different assumptions on the way in which individuals learn and use language. We find that accounts of language change that appeal primarily to errors in childhood language acquisition are very weakly supported by the historical data, whereas those that allow speakers to change incrementally across the lifespan are more plausible, particularly when combined with social network effects.

From genotypes to organisms: State-of-the-art and perspectives of a cornerstone in evolutionary dynamics

Understanding how genotypes map onto phenotypes, fitness, and eventually organisms is arguably the next major missing piece in a fully predictive theory of evolution. We refer to this generally as the problem of the genotype-phenotype map. Though we are still far from achieving a complete picture of these relationships, our current understanding of simpler questions, such as the structure induced in the space of genotypes by sequences mapped to molecular structures, has revealed important facts that deeply affect the dynamical description of evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence supporting the fundamental relevance of features such as phenotypic bias is mounting as well, while the synthesis of conceptual and experimental progress leads to questioning current assumptions on the nature of evolutionary dynamics-cancer progression models or synthetic biology approaches being notable examples. This work delves with a critical and constructive attitude into our current knowledge of how genotypes map onto molecular phenotypes and organismal functions, and discusses theoretical and empirical avenues to broaden and improve this comprehension. As a final goal, this community should aim at deriving an updated picture of evolutionary processes soundly relying on the structural properties of genotype spaces, as revealed by modern techniques of molecular and functional analysis.

Adaptive evolution at mRNA editing sites in soft-bodied cephalopods

BACKGROUND

The bulk of variability in mRNA sequence arises due to mutation-change in DNA sequence which is heritable if it occurs in the germline. However, variation in mRNA can also be achieved by post-transcriptional modification including mRNA editing, changes in mRNA nucleotide sequence that mimic the effect of mutations. Such modifications are not inherited directly; however, as the processes affecting them are encoded in the genome, they have a heritable component, and therefore can be shaped by selection. In soft-bodied cephalopods, adenine-to-inosine RNA editing is very frequent, and much of it occurs at nonsynonymous sites, affecting the sequence of the encoded protein.

METHODS

We study selection regimes at coleoid A-to-I editing sites, estimate the prevalence of positive selection, and analyze interdependencies between the editing level and contextual characteristics of editing site.

RESULTS

Here, we show that mRNA editing of individual nonsynonymous sites in cephalopods originates in evolution through substitutions at regions adjacent to these sites. As such substitutions mimic the effect of the substitution at the edited site itself, we hypothesize that they are favored by selection if the inosine is selectively advantageous to adenine at the edited position. Consistent with this hypothesis, we show that edited adenines are more frequently substituted with guanine, an informational analog of inosine, in the course of evolution than their unedited counterparts, and for heavily edited adenines, these transitions are favored by positive selection. Our study shows that coleoid editing sites may enhance adaptation, which, together with recent observations on Drosophila and human editing sites, points at a general role of RNA editing in the molecular evolution of metazoans.

Mutation bias can shape adaptation in large asexual populations experiencing clonal interference

The extended evolutionary synthesis invokes a role for development in shaping adaptive evolution, which in population genetics terms corresponds to mutation-biased adaptation. Critics have claimed that clonal interference makes mutation-biased adaptation rare. We consider the behaviour of two simultaneously adapting traits, one with larger mutation rate U, the other with larger selection coefficient s, using asexual travelling wave models. We find that adaptation is dominated by whichever trait has the faster rate of adaptation v in isolation, with the other trait subject to evolutionary stalling. Reviewing empirical claims for mutation-biased adaptation, we find that not all occur in the 'origin-fixation' regime of population genetics where v is only twice as sensitive to s as to U. In some cases, differences in U are at least ten to twelve times larger than differences in s, as needed to cause mutation-biased adaptation even in the 'multiple mutations' regime. Surprisingly, when U > s in the 'diffusive-mutation' regime, the required sensitivity ratio is also only two, despite pervasive clonal interference. Given two traits with identical v, the benefit of having higher s is surprisingly small, occurring largely when one trait is at the boundary between the origin-fixation and multiple mutations regimes.

Mutation bias interacts with composition bias to influence adaptive evolution

Mutation is a biased stochastic process, with some types of mutations occurring more frequently than others. Previous work has used synthetic genotype-phenotype landscapes to study how such mutation bias affects adaptive evolution. Here, we consider 746 empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, each of which describes the binding affinity of target DNA sequences to a transcription factor, to study the influence of mutation bias on adaptive evolution of increased binding affinity. By using empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, we need to make only few assumptions about landscape topography and about the DNA sequences that each landscape contains. The latter is particularly important because the set of sequences that a landscape contains determines the types of mutations that can occur along a mutational path to an adaptive peak. That is, landscapes can exhibit a composition bias—a statistical enrichment of a particular type of mutation relative to a null expectation, throughout an entire landscape or along particular mutational paths—that is independent of any bias in the mutation process. Our results reveal the way in which composition bias interacts with biases in the mutation process under different population genetic conditions, and how such interaction impacts fundamental properties of adaptive evolution, such as its predictability, as well as the evolution of genetic diversity and mutational robustness.

Mutation is often depicted as a random process due its unpredictable nature. However, such randomness does not imply uniformly distributed outcomes, because some DNA sequence changes happen more frequently than others. Mutation bias can be an orienting factor in adaptive evolution, influencing the mutational trajectories populations follow toward higher-fitness genotypes. Because these trajectories are typically just a small subset of all possible mutational trajectories, they can exhibit composition bias—an enrichment of a particular kind of DNA sequence change, such as transition or transversion mutations. Here, we use empirical data from eukaryotic transcriptional regulation to study how mutation bias and composition bias interact to influence adaptive evolution.

Adapting Biased Gene Conversion theory to account for intensive GC-content deterioration in the human genome by novel mutations

We examined seventy million well-characterized human mutations, and their impact on G+C-compositional dynamics, in order to understand the formation and maintenance of major genomic nucleotide sequence patterns. Among novel mutations, those that change a strong (S) base pair G:C/C:G to a weak (W) pair A:T/T:A occur at nearly twice the frequency of the opposite mutations. Such imbalance puts strong downward pressure on overall GC-content. However, along protracted paths to fixation, S→W mutations are much less likely to propagate than W→S mutations. The magnitude of relative propagation disadvantages for S→W mutations is inexplicable by any currently-accepted model. This fact forced us to re-examine the quantitative features of Biased Gene Conversion (BGC) theory. Revised parameters of BGC that, per average individual, convert 7–14 W base pairs into S pairs, would account for the S-content turnover differences between new and old mutations, and make BGC an instrumental force for nucleotide dynamics and evolution. BGC should thus be considered seriously in both theories and biomedical practice. In particular, BGC should be taken into account during allele imputations, where missing SNP alleles are computationally predicted based on the information about several neighboring alleles. Finally, we analyzed the effect of neighboring nucleotide context on the mutation frequencies, dynamics, and GC-composition turnover. For this purpose, we examined genomic regions having extremely biased nucleotide compositions (enriched for S-, W-, purine/pyrimidine strand asymmetry, or AC/GT-strand asymmetry). It was found that point mutations in these regions preferentially degrade the nucleotide inhomogeneities, decreasing the sequence biases. Degradation of sequence bias is highest for novel mutations, and considerably lower for older mutations (those widespread across populations). Besides BGC, there may be additional, still uncharacterized molecular mechanisms that either preserve genomic regions with biased nucleotide compositions from mutational degradation or fail to degrade such inhomogeneities in specific chromosomal regions.

Moderate Amounts of Epistasis are Not Evolutionarily Stable in Small Populations

High mutation rates select for the evolution of mutational robustness where populations inhabit flat fitness peaks with little epistasis, protecting them from lethal mutagenesis. Recent evidence suggests that a different effect protects small populations from extinction via the accumulation of deleterious mutations. In drift robustness, populations tend to occupy peaks with steep flanks and positive epistasis between mutations. However, it is not known what happens when mutation rates are high and population sizes are small at the same time. Using a simple fitness model with variable epistasis, we show that the equilibrium fitness has a minimum as a function of the parameter that tunes epistasis, implying that this critical point is an unstable fixed point for evolutionary trajectories. In agent-based simulations of evolution at finite mutation rate, we demonstrate that when mutations can change epistasis, trajectories with a subcritical value of epistasis evolve to decrease epistasis, while those with supercritical initial points evolve towards higher epistasis. These two fixed points can be identified with mutational and drift robustness, respectively.

Parsimonious evolutionary scenario for the origin of allostery and coevolution patterns in proteins

Proteins display generic properties that are challenging to explain by direct selection, notably allostery, the capacity to be regulated through long-range effects, and evolvability, the capacity to adapt to new selective pressures. An evolutionary scenario is proposed where proteins acquire these two features indirectly as a by-product of their selection for a more fundamental property, exquisite discrimination, the capacity to bind discriminatively very similar ligands. Achieving this task is shown to typically require proteins to undergo a conformational change. We argue that physical and evolutionary constraints impel this change to be controlled by a group of sites extending from the binding site. Proteins can thus acquire a latent potential for allosteric regulation and evolutionary adaptation because of long-range effects that initially arise as evolutionary spandrels. This scenario accounts for the groups of conserved and coevolving residues observed in multiple sequence alignments. However, we propose that most pairs of coevolving and contacting residues inferred from such alignments have a different origin, related to thermal stability. A physical model is presented that illustrates this evolutionary scenario and its implications. The scenario can be implemented in experiments of protein evolution to directly test its predictions.

StructuRly: A novel shiny app to produce comprehensive, detailed and interactive plots for population genetic analysis

Population genetics focuses on the analysis of genetic differences within and between-group of individuals and the inference of the populations' structure. These analyses are usually carried out using Bayesian clustering or maximum likelihood estimation algorithms that assign individuals to a given population depending on specific genetic patterns. Although several tools were developed to perform population genetics analysis, their standard graphical outputs may not be sufficiently informative for users lacking interactivity and complete information. StructuRly aims to resolve this problem by offering a complete environment for population analysis. In particular, StructuRly combines the statistical power of the R language with the friendly interfaces implemented using the shiny libraries to provide a novel tool for performing population clustering, evaluating several genetic indexes, and comparing results. Moreover, graphical representations are interactive and can be easily personalized. StructuRly is available either as R package on GitHub, with detailed information for its installation and use and as shinyapps.io servers for those users who are not familiar with R and the RStudio IDE. The application has been tested on Linux, macOS and Windows operative systems and can be launched as a shiny app in every web browser.

Crossing fitness valleys via double substitutions within codons

BACKGROUND

Single nucleotide substitutions in protein-coding genes can be divided into synonymous (S), with little fitness effect, and non-synonymous (N) ones that alter amino acids and thus generally have a greater effect. Most of the N substitutions are affected by purifying selection that eliminates them from evolving populations. However, additional mutations of nearby bases potentially could alleviate the deleterious effect of single substitutions, making them subject to positive selection. To elucidate the effects of selection on double substitutions in all codons, it is critical to differentiate selection from mutational biases.

RESULTS

We addressed the evolutionary regimes of within-codon double substitutions in 37 groups of closely related prokaryotic genomes from diverse phyla by comparing the fractions of double substitutions within codons to those of the equivalent double S substitutions in adjacent codons. Under the assumption that substitutions occur one at a time, all within-codon double substitutions can be represented as "ancestral-intermediate-final" sequences (where "intermediate" refers to the first single substitution and "final" refers to the second substitution) and can be partitioned into four classes: (1) SS, S intermediate-S final; (2) SN, S intermediate-N final; (3) NS, N intermediate-S final; and (4) NN, N intermediate-N final. We found that the selective pressure on the second substitution markedly differs among these classes of double substitutions. Analogous to single S (synonymous) substitutions, SS double substitutions evolve neutrally, whereas analogous to single N (non-synonymous) substitutions, SN double substitutions are subject to purifying selection. In contrast, NS show positive selection on the second step because the original amino acid is recovered. The NN double substitutions are heterogeneous and can be subject to either purifying or positive selection, or evolve neutrally, depending on the amino acid similarity between the final or intermediate and the ancestral states.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the present, comprehensive analysis of the evolutionary landscape of within-codon double substitutions reaffirm the largely conservative regime of protein evolution. However, the second step of a double substitution can be subject to positive selection when the first step is deleterious. Such positive selection can result in frequent crossing of valleys on the fitness landscape.

The Creativity of Natural Selection? Part II: The Synthesis and Since

This is the second of a two-part essay on the history of debates concerning the creativity of natural selection, from Darwin through the evolutionary synthesis and up to the present. In the first part, I focussed on the mid-late nineteenth century to the early twentieth, with special emphasis on early Darwinism and its critics, the self-styled "mutationists." The second part focuses on the evolutionary synthesis and some of its critics, especially the "neutralists" and "neo-mutationists." Like Stephen Gould, I consider the creativity of natural selection to be a key component of what has traditionally counted as "Darwinism." I argue that the creativity of natural selection is best understood in terms of (1) selection initiating evolutionary change, and (2) selection directing evolutionary change, for example by creating the variation that it subsequently acts upon. I consider the respects in which both of these claims sound non-Darwinian, even though they have long been understood by supporters and critics alike to be virtually constitutive of Darwinism.

Probabilistic Models for Predicting Mutational Routes to New Adaptive Phenotypes

Understanding the translation of genetic variation to phenotypic variation is a fundamental problem in genetics and evolutionary biology. The introduction of new genetic variation through mutation can lead to new adaptive phenotypes, but the complexity of the genotype-to-phenotype map makes it challenging to predict the phenotypic effects of mutation. Metabolic models, in conjunction with flux balance analysis, have been used to predict evolutionary optimality. These methods however rely on large scale models of metabolism, describe a limited set of phenotypes, and assume that selection for growth rate is the prime evolutionary driver. Here we describe a method for computing the relative likelihood that mutational change will translate into a phenotypic change between two molecular pathways. The interactions of molecular components in the pathways are modeled with ordinary differential equations. Unknown parameters are offset by probability distributions that describe the concentrations of molecular components, the reaction rates for different molecular processes, and the effects of mutations. Finally, the likelihood that mutations in a pathway will yield phenotypic change is estimated with stochastic simulations. One advantage of this method is that only basic knowledge of the interaction network underlying a phenotype is required. However, it can also incorporate available information about concentrations and reaction rates as well as mutational biases and mutational robustness of molecular components. The method estimates the relative probabilities that different pathways produce phenotypic change, which can be combined with fitness models to predict evolutionary outcomes.

The role of mutation bias in adaptive molecular evolution: insights from convergent changes in protein function

An underexplored question in evolutionary genetics concerns the extent to which mutational bias in the production of genetic variation influences outcomes and pathways of adaptive molecular evolution. In the genomes of at least some vertebrate taxa, an important form of mutation bias involves changes at CpG dinucleotides: if the DNA nucleotide cytosine (C) is immediately 5' to guanine (G) on the same coding strand, then-depending on methylation status-point mutations at both sites occur at an elevated rate relative to mutations at non-CpG sites. Here, we examine experimental data from case studies in which it has been possible to identify the causative substitutions that are responsible for adaptive changes in the functional properties of vertebrate haemoglobin (Hb). Specifically, we examine the molecular basis of convergent increases in Hb-O₂ affinity in high-altitude birds. Using a dataset of experimentally verified, affinity-enhancing mutations in the Hbs of highland avian taxa, we tested whether causative changes are enriched for mutations at CpG dinucleotides relative to the frequency of CpG mutations among all possible missense mutations. The tests revealed that a disproportionate number of causative amino acid replacements were attributable to CpG mutations, suggesting that mutation bias can influence outcomes of molecular adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Convergent evolution in the genomics era: new insights and directions'.

Transition bias influences the evolution of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Transition bias, an overabundance of transitions relative to transversions, has been widely reported among studies of the rates and spectra of spontaneous mutations. However, demonstrating the role of transition bias in adaptive evolution remains challenging. In particular, it is unclear whether such biases direct the evolution of bacterial pathogens adapting to treatment. We addressed this challenge by analyzing adaptive antibiotic-resistance mutations in the major human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). We found strong evidence for transition bias in two independently curated data sets comprising 152 and 208 antibiotic-resistance mutations. This was true at the level of mutational paths (distinct adaptive DNA sequence changes) and events (individual instances of the adaptive DNA sequence changes) and across different genes and gene promoters conferring resistance to a diversity of antibiotics. It was also true for mutations that do not code for amino acid changes (in gene promoters and the 16S ribosomal RNA gene rrs) and for mutations that are synonymous to each other and are therefore likely to have similar fitness effects, suggesting that transition bias can be caused by a bias in mutation supply. These results point to a central role for transition bias in determining which mutations drive adaptive antibiotic resistance evolution in a key pathogen.

Some types of mutations occur more frequently than expected. This study shows that such bias —an excess of transitions over transversions—influences the evolution of antibiotic resistance in a key global pathogen, Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Match fitness landscapes for macromolecular interaction networks: Selection for translational accuracy and rate can displace tRNA-binding interfaces of non-cognate aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases

Advances in structural biology of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) have revealed incredible diversity in how aaRSs bind their tRNA substrates. The causes of this diversity remain mysterious. We developed a new class of highly rugged fitness landscape models called match landscapes, through which genes encode the assortative interactions of their gene products through the complementarity and identifiability of their structural features. We used results from coding theory to prove bounds and equalities on fitness in match landscapes assuming additive interaction energies, macroscopic aminoacylation kinetics including proofreading, site-specific modifiers of interaction, and selection for translational accuracy in multiple, perfectly encoded site-types. Using genotypes based on extended Hamming codes we show that over a wide array of interface sizes and numbers of encoded cognate pairs, selection for translational accuracy alone is insufficient to displace the tRNA-binding interfaces of aaRSs. Yet, under combined selection for translational accuracy and rate, site-specific modifiers are selected to adaptively displace the tRNA-binding interfaces of non-cognate aaRS-tRNA pairs. We describe a remarkable correspondence between the lengths of perfect RNA (quaternary) codes and the modal sizes of small non-coding RNA families.

How Often Do Protein Genes Navigate Valleys of Low Fitness?

To escape from local fitness peaks, a population must navigate across valleys of low fitness. How these transitions occur, and what role they play in adaptation, have been subjects of active interest in evolutionary genetics for almost a century. However, to our knowledge, this problem has never been addressed directly by considering the evolution of a gene, or group of genes, as a whole, including the complex effects of fitness interactions among multiple loci. Here, we use a precise model of protein fitness to compute the probability P ( s , Δ t ) that an allele, randomly sampled from a population at time t, has crossed a fitness valley of depth s during an interval t - Δ t , t in the immediate past. We study populations of model genes evolving under equilibrium conditions consistent with those in mammalian mitochondria. From this data, we estimate that genes encoding small protein motifs navigate fitness valleys of depth 2 N s ≳ 30 with probability P ≳ 0 . 1 on a time scale of human evolution, where N is the (mitochondrial) effective population size. The results are consistent with recent findings for Watson⁻Crick switching in mammalian mitochondrial tRNA molecules.

Population Genetics Based Phylogenetics Under Stabilizing Selection for an Optimal Amino Acid Sequence: A Nested Modeling Approach

We present a new phylogenetic approach, selection on amino acids and codons (SelAC), whose substitution rates are based on a nested model linking protein expression to population genetics. Unlike simpler codon models that assume a single substitution matrix for all sites, our model more realistically represents the evolution of protein-coding DNA under the assumption of consistent, stabilizing selection using a cost-benefit approach. This cost-benefit approach allows us to generate a set of 20 optimal amino acid-specific matrix families using just a handful of parameters and naturally links the strength of stabilizing selection to protein synthesis levels, which we can estimate. Using a yeast data set of 100 orthologs for 6 taxa, we find SelAC fits the data much better than popular models by 104-105 Akike information criterion units adjusted for small sample bias. Our results also indicated that nested, mechanistic models better predict observed data patterns highlighting the improvement in biological realism in amino acid sequence evolution that our model provides. Additional parameters estimated by SelAC indicate that a large amount of nonphylogenetic, but biologically meaningful, information can be inferred from existing data. For example, SelAC prediction of gene-specific protein synthesis rates correlates well with both empirical (r=0.33-0.48) and other theoretical predictions (r=0.45-0.64) for multiple yeast species. SelAC also provides estimates of the optimal amino acid at each site. Finally, because SelAC is a nested approach based on clearly stated biological assumptions, future modifications, such as including shifts in the optimal amino acid sequence within or across lineages, are possible.

Multiple Factors Confounding Phylogenetic Detection of Selection on Codon Usage

Detecting selection on codon usage (CU) is a difficult task, since CU can be shaped by both the mutational process and selective constraints operating at the DNA, RNA, and protein levels. Yang and Nielsen (2008) developed a test (which we call CUYN) for detecting selection on CU using two competing mutation-selection models of codon substitution. The null model assumes that CU is determined by the mutation bias alone, whereas the alternative model assumes that both mutation bias and/or selection act on CU. In applications on mammalian-scale alignments, the CUYN test detects selection on CU for numerous genes. This is surprising, given the small effective population size of mammals, and prompted us to use simulations to evaluate the robustness of the test to model violations. Simulations using a modest level of CpG hypermutability completely mislead the test, with 100% false positives. Surprisingly, a high level of false positives (56.1%) resulted simply from using the HKY mutation-level parameterization within the CUYN test on simulations conducted with a GTR mutation-level parameterization. Finally, by using a crude optimization procedure on a parameter controlling the CpG hypermutability rate, we find that this mutational property could explain a very large part of the observed mammalian CU. Altogether, our work emphasizes the need to evaluate the potential impact of model violations on statistical tests in the field of molecular phylogenetic analysis. The source code of the simulator and the mammalian genes used are available as a GitHub repository (https://github.com/Simonll/LikelihoodFreePhylogenetics.git).

Social evolution under demographic stochasticity

How social traits such as altruism and spite evolve remains an open question in evolutionary biology. One factor thought to be potentially important is demographic stochasticity. Here we provide a general theoretical analysis of the role of demographic stochasticity in social evolution. We show that the evolutionary impact of stochasticity depends on how the social action alters the recipient’s life cycle. If the action alters the recipient’s death rate, then demographic stochasticity always favours altruism and disfavours spite. On the other hand, if the action alters the recipient’s birth rate, then stochasticity can either favour or disfavour both altruism and spite depending on the ratio of the rate of population turnover to the population size. Finally, we also show that this ratio is critical to determining if demographic stochasticity can reverse the direction of selection upon social traits. Our analysis thus provides a general understanding of the role of demographic stochasticity in social evolution.

Explaining the evolution of social traits such as altruism and spite remains a key outstanding problem in evolutionary biology. Here we develop a simple theory for the effect of demographic stochasticity (random variation in an individual’s birth and death rates) on the evolution of social traits. Our results provide a clear set of predictions: whether a social trait is favoured or disfavoured is determined by how the social action alters the recipient’s life cycle. If the social action alters the recipient’s death rate, then altruism is favoured and spite disfavoured. If instead the social action alters the recipient’s birth rate, then both altruism and spite can be either favoured or disfavoured—the precise outcome depends upon the ratio of the population turnover rate to the population size.

Improved inference of site-specific positive selection under a generalized parametric codon model when there are multinucleotide mutations and multiple nonsynonymous rates

BACKGROUND

An excess of nonsynonymous substitutions, over neutrality, is considered evidence of positive Darwinian selection. Inference for proteins often relies on estimation of the nonsynonymous to synonymous ratio (ω = dN/dS) within a codon model. However, to ease computational difficulties, ω is typically estimated assuming an idealized substitution process where (i) all nonsynonymous substitutions have the same rate (regardless of impact on organism fitness) and (ii) instantaneous double and triple (DT) nucleotide mutations have zero probability (despite evidence that they can occur). It follows that estimates of ω represent an imperfect summary of the intensity of selection, and that tests based on the ω > 1 threshold could be negatively impacted.

RESULTS

We developed a general-purpose parametric (GPP) modelling framework for codons. This novel approach allows specification of all possible instantaneous codon substitutions, including multiple nonsynonymous rates (MNRs) and instantaneous DT nucleotide changes. Existing codon models are specified as special cases of the GPP model. We use GPP models to implement likelihood ratio tests for ω > 1 that accommodate MNRs and DT mutations. Through both simulation and real data analysis, we find that failure to model MNRs and DT mutations reduces power in some cases and inflates false positives in others. False positives under traditional M2a and M8 models were very sensitive to DT changes. This was exacerbated by the choice of frequency parameterization (GY vs. MG), with rates sometimes > 90% under MG. By including MNRs and DT mutations, accuracy and power was greatly improved under the GPP framework. However, we also find that over-parameterized models can perform less well, and this can contribute to degraded performance of LRTs.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest GPP models should be used alongside traditional codon models. Further, all codon models should be deployed within an experimental design that includes (i) assessing robustness to model assumptions, and (ii) investigation of non-standard behaviour of MLEs. As the goal of every analysis is to avoid false conclusions, more work is needed on model selection methods that consider both the increase in fit engendered by a model parameter and the degree to which that parameter is affected by un-modelled evolutionary processes.

Predicting mutational routes to new adaptive phenotypes

Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive 'wrinkly spreader' (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.