Machine-Learning-Based Forecasting of Dengue Fever in Brazilian Cities Using Epidemiologic and Meteorological Variables

Predicting dengue transmission rates by comparing different machine learning models with vector indices and meteorological data

Machine learning algorithms (ML) are receiving a lot of attention in the development of predictive models for monitoring dengue transmission rates. Previous work has focused only on specific weather variables and algorithms, and there is still a need for a model that uses more variables and algorithms that have higher performance. In this study, we use vector indices and meteorological data as predictors to develop the ML models. We trained and validated seven ML algorithms, including an ensemble ML method, and compared their performance using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) with the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy and F1 score. Our results show that an ensemble ML such as XG Boost, AdaBoost and Random Forest perform better than the logistics regression, Naïve Bayens, decision tree, and support vector machine (SVM), with XGBoost having the highest AUC, accuracy and F1 score. Analysis of the importance of the variables showed that the container index was the least important. By removing this variable, the ML models improved their performance by at least 6% in AUC and F1 score. Our result provides a framework for future studies on the use of predictive models in the development of an early warning system.

A Systematic Review of Applications of Machine Learning and Other Soft Computing Techniques for the Diagnosis of Tropical Diseases

This systematic literature aims to identify soft computing techniques currently utilized in diagnosing tropical febrile diseases and explore the data characteristics and features used for diagnoses, algorithm accuracy, and the limitations of current studies. The goal of this study is therefore centralized around determining the extent to which soft computing techniques have positively impacted the quality of physician care and their effectiveness in tropical disease diagnosis. The study has used PRISMA guidelines to identify paper selection and inclusion/exclusion criteria. It was determined that the highest frequency of articles utilized ensemble techniques for classification, prediction, analysis, diagnosis, etc., over single machine learning techniques, followed by neural networks. The results identified dengue fever as the most studied disease, followed by malaria and tuberculosis. It was also revealed that accuracy was the most common metric utilized to evaluate the predictive capability of a classification mode. The information presented within these studies benefits frontline healthcare workers who could depend on soft computing techniques for accurate diagnoses of tropical diseases. Although our research shows an increasing interest in using machine learning techniques for diagnosing tropical diseases, there still needs to be more studies. Hence, recommendations and directions for future research are proposed.

Forecasting new diseases in low-data settings using transfer learning

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we have little knowledge of the transmission process, the level and duration of immunity to reinfection, or other parameters required to build realistic epidemiological models. Time series forecasts and machine learning, while less reliant on assumptions about the disease, require large amounts of data that are also not available in early stages of an outbreak. In this study, we examine how knowledge of related diseases can help make predictions of new diseases in data-scarce environments using transfer learning. We implement both an empirical and a synthetic approach. Using data from Brazil, we compare how well different machine learning models transfer knowledge between two different dataset pairs: case counts of (i) dengue and Zika, and (ii) influenza and COVID-19. In the synthetic analysis, we generate data with an SIR model using different transmission and recovery rates, and then compare the effectiveness of different transfer learning methods. We find that transfer learning offers the potential to improve predictions, even beyond a model based on data from the target disease, though the appropriate source disease must be chosen carefully. While imperfect, these models offer an additional input for decision makers for pandemic response.