Group-Based Trajectory of Body Shape From Ages 5 to 55 Years and Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in 2 US Cohorts

Association of longitudinal trajectories of fasting plasma glucose with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among a Chinese older population: a retrospective cohort study

The association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), an important indicator of overall glycemic status, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality has been well investigated. The longitudinal study can repeatedly collect measured results for the variables to be studied and then consider the potential effects of intraindividual changes in measurement. This study aimed to identify long-term FPG trajectories and investigate the association between trajectory groups and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A latent class growth mixture modeling (LCGMM) was used to identify FPG trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between FPG trajectories and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A U-shaped relationship between FPG and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed in the restricted cubic spline regression models. Two FPG longitudinal trajectories of low-level (mean FPG = 5.12mmol/L) and high-level (mean FPG = 6.74mmol/L) were identified by LCGMM. After being adjusted for potential confounders, compared with the low-level category, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.23(1.16-1.30) and 1.25(1.16-1.35), respectively, for the high-level group. Long-term FPG trajectories are significantly associated with and potentially impact the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Child-to-adult body size change and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Childhood overweight increases the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in adulthood. However, the impact of childhood leanness on adult obesity and disease risk has been overlooked. We examined the independent and combined influences of child and adult body size on the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank on 364,695 individuals of European ancestry and free of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease were divided into nine categories based on their self-reported body size at age 10 and measured BMI in adulthood. After a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 33,460 individuals had developed type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. We used Cox regression models to assess the associations of body size categories with disease incidence.

RESULTS

Individuals with low body size in childhood and high body size in adulthood had the highest risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 4.73; 95% CI 4.50, 4.99), compared to those with average body size in both childhood and adulthood. This was significantly higher than the risk in those with high body size in both childhood and adulthood (HR 4.05; 95% CI 3.84, 4.26). By contrast, cardiovascular disease risk was determined by adult body size, irrespective of childhood body size.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low body size in childhood exacerbates the risk of type 2 diabetes associated with adult obesity but not the risk of cardiovascular disease. Thus, promoting healthy weight management from childhood to adulthood, among lean children, is crucial.

Life-course trajectories of body mass index and cardiovascular disease risks and health outcomes in adulthood: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aimed to assess the effect of life course body mass index (BMI) trajectories (childhood to adulthood) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and outcomes.

METHODS

Prospective or retrospective cohort studies were identified that assessed the association of BMI trajectories with CVD risks and outcomes from databases published in English. The pooled effect sizes were estimated using a random-effects model.

FINDINGS

Seventeen eligible studies were included in this systematic review. The results revealed that a persistently overweight trajectory from childhood to adulthood was associated with a higher risk of hypertension (RR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.9, 3.28) and type 2 diabetes (RR: 4.62; 95% CI: 2.36, 9.04) compared with a trajectory characterized by a normal BMI throughout both childhood and adulthood. Similarly, the risk of hypertension (RR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.70, 3.33) and type 2 diabetes (RR: 3.66; 95% CI: 2.57, 5.19) was higher in those with normal-to-overweight trajectory compared with participants with a stable normal weight trajectory.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that lifetime BMI trajectories may be influential on health outcomes, and preventive strategies should be designed accordingly. Implementing appropriate preventive strategies at all life stages may reduce CVD risks and adverse outcomes later in life.

Diet strategies for promoting healthy aging and longevity: An epidemiological perspective

In recent decades, global life expectancies have risen significantly, accompanied by a marked increase in chronic diseases and population aging. This narrative review aims to summarize recent findings on the dietary factors influencing chronic diseases and longevity, primarily from large cohort studies. First, maintaining a healthy weight throughout life is pivotal for healthy aging and longevity, mirroring the benefits of lifelong, moderate calorie restriction in today's obesogenic food environment. Second, the specific types or food sources of dietary fat, protein, and carbohydrates are more important in influencing chronic disease risk and mortality than their quantity. Third, some traditional diets (e.g., the Mediterranean, Nordic, and Okinawa) and contemporary dietary patterns, such as healthy plant-based diet index, the DASH (dietary approaches to stop hypertension) diet, and alternate healthy eating index, have been associated with lower mortality and healthy longevity. These patterns share many common components (e.g., a predominance of nutrient-rich plant foods; limited red and processed meats; culinary herbs and spices prevalent in global cuisines) while embracing distinct elements from different cultures. Fourth, combining a healthy diet with other lifestyle factors could extend disease-free life expectancies by 8-10 years. While adhering to core principles of healthy diets, it is crucial to adapt dietary recommendations to individual preferences and cultures as well as nutritional needs of aging populations. Public health strategies should aim to create a healthier food environment where nutritious options are readily accessible, especially in public institutions and care facilities for the elderly. Although further mechanistic studies and human trials are needed to better understand molecular effects of diet on aging, there is a pressing need to establish and maintain long-term cohorts studying diet and aging in culturally diverse populations.

The association of long-term trajectories of BMI, its variability, and metabolic syndrome: a 30-year prospective cohort study

Background

Limited data exists on how early-life weight changes relate to metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk in midlife. This study examines the association between long-term trajectories of body mass index (BMI), its variability, and MetS risk in Chinese individuals.

Methods

In the Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension study (March 10, 1987-June 3, 2017), 1824 participants with at least five BMI measurements from 1987 to 2017 were included. Using group-based trajectory modeling, different BMI trajectories were identified. BMI variability was assessed through standard deviation (SD), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Logistic regression analyzed the relationship between BMI trajectory, BMI variability, and MetS occurrence in midlife (URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02734472).

Findings

BMI trajectories were categorized as low-increasing (34.4%), moderate-increasing (51.8%), and high-increasing (13.8%). Compared to the low-increasing group, the odds ratios (ORs) [95% CIs] for MetS were significantly higher in moderate (4.27 [2.63-6.91]) and high-increasing groups (13.11 [6.30-27.31]) in fully adjusted models. Additionally, higher BMI variabilities were associated with increased MetS odds (ORs for SDBMI, VIMBMI, and ARVBMI: 2.30 [2.02-2.62], 1.22 [1.19-1.26], and 4.29 [3.38-5.45]). Furthermore, BMI trajectories from childhood to adolescence were predictive of midlife MetS, with ORs in moderate (1.49 [1.00-2.23]) and high-increasing groups (2.45 [1.22-4.91]). Lastly, elevated BMI variability in this period was also linked to higher MetS odds (ORs for SDBMI, VIMBMI, and ARVBMI: 1.24 [1.08-1.42], 1.00 [1.00-1.01], and 1.21 [1.05-1.38]).

Interpretation

Our study suggests that both early-life BMI trajectories and BMI variability could be predictive of incident MetS in midlife.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China No. 82070437 (J.-J.M.), the Clinical Research Award of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University of China (No. XJTU1AF-CRF-2022-002, XJTU1AF2021CRF-021, and XJTU1AF-CRF-2023-004), the Key R&D Projects in Shaanxi Province (Grant No. 2023-ZDLSF-50), the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College (2017-CXGC03-2), and the International Joint Research Centre for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine of Shaanxi Province (2020GHJD-14).

A Population-Based Family Case-Control Study of Sun Exposure and Follicular Lymphoma Risk

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic evidence suggests an inverse association between sun exposure and follicular lymphoma risk.

METHODS

We conducted an Australian population-based family case-control study based on 666 cases and 459 controls (288 related, 171 unrelated). Participants completed a lifetime residence and work calendar and recalled outdoor hours on weekdays, weekends, and holidays in the warmer and cooler months at ages 10, 20, 30, and 40 years, and clothing types worn in the warmer months. We used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to identify outdoor hour trajectories over time and examined associations with follicular lymphoma risk using logistic regression.

RESULTS

We observed an inverse association between follicular lymphoma risk and several measures of high lifetime sun exposure, particularly intermittent exposure (weekends, holidays). Associations included reduced risk with increasing time outdoors on holidays in the warmer months [highest category OR = 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42-0.76; Ptrend < 0.01], high outdoor hours on weekends in the warmer months (highest category OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96), and increasing time outdoors in the warmer and cooler months combined (highest category OR = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50-0.91; Ptrend 0.01). Risk was reduced for high outdoor hour maintainers in the warmer months across the decade years (OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

High total and intermittent sun exposure, particularly in the warmer months, may be protective against the development of follicular lymphoma.

IMPACT

Although sun exposure is not recommended as a cancer control policy, confirming this association may provide insights regarding the future control of this intractable malignancy.

Frailty predicts knee pain trajectory over 9 years: results from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

Frailty is a multisystem syndrome and its relationship with symptomatic osteoarthritis has been reported. We aimed to identify trajectories of knee pain in a large prospective cohort and to describe the effect of frailty status at baseline on the pain trajectories over 9 years.

METHODS

We included 4419 participants (mean age 61.3 years, 58% female) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. Participants were classified as "no frailty," "pre-frailty," or "frailty" at baseline, based on 5 characteristics (ie, unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, weak energy, slow gait speed, and low physical activity). Knee pain was evaluated annually using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain subscale (0-20) from baseline to 9 years.

RESULTS

Of the participants included, 38.4%, 55.4%, and 6.3% were classified as "no frailty," "pre-frailty," and "frailty," respectively. Five pain trajectories were identified: "No pain" (n = 1010, 22.8%), "Mild pain" (n = 1656, 37.3%), "Moderate pain" (n = 1149, 26.0%), "Severe pain" (n = 477, 10.9%), and "Very Severe pain" (n = 127, 3.0%). Compared to participants with no frailty, those with pre-frailty and frailty were more likely to have more severe pain trajectories (pre-frailty: odds ratios [ORs] 1.5 to 2.1; frailty: ORs 1.5 to 5.0), after adjusting for potential confounders. Further analyses indicated that the associations between frailty and pain were mainly driven by exhaustion, slow gait speed, and weak energy.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately two-thirds of middle-aged and older adults were frail or pre-frail. The role of frailty in predicting pain trajectories suggests that frailty may be an important treatment target for knee pain.

Trajectory Patterns of Gestational Weight Gain

OBJECTIVE

To identify gestational weight gain trajectories and their association with demographic, obstetric, and anthropometric characteristics.

METHOD

Information of 599 pregnant women undergoing prenatal care in public health units was collected through questionnaires and medical records, resulting in 4,272 measures of body weight. Group-based trajectory models were applied to identify patterns of gestational weight gain.

RESULTS

The average gestational weight gain at 40 weeks was 14.1 kg (95%CI: 13.2, 15.0). Three different trajectory groups were identified: low (9.9%), intermediate (66.4%), and high (23.7%). Pregnant women who smoked and those classified above IOM's weight gain recommendations were more likely to be classified in the group with a high weight gain trajectory; while those with pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity, and with greater parity were more likely to be categorized in the low weight gain trajectory. After adjusting for other variables in the model, parity remained significantly associated with gestational weight gain (β: 0.88; 95%CI: 0.27, 0.73). In the multilevel model, weight gain remained different among the categories of group-based trajectory, even after adjustment for other investigated variables for intermediate (β: 2.94; 95%CI: 2.32, 3.58) and high (β: 5.88; 95%CI: 5.09, 6.66) gestational weight gain trajectory groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Behavioral, obstetric, and anthropometric characteristics determined the belonging to groups with a high or low trajectory of gestational weight gain. The findings contribute to a better understanding of patterns of gestational weight gain in middle-income women groups.

Heterogenous trajectories in physical, mental and cognitive health among older Americans: Roles of genetics and life course contextual factors

We investigate the roles of genetic predispositions, childhood SES and adult educational attainment in shaping trajectories for three important components of the overall health of older adults -- BMI, depressive symptoms and cognition. We use the Health & Retirement Study (HRS) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to identify subgroups of people who share the same underlying trajectories ages 51-94 years. After identifying common underlying health trajectories, we use fractional multinomial logit models to estimate associations of (1) polygenic scores for BMI, depression, ever-smoked, education, cognition and subjective wellbeing, (2) childhood SES and (3) educational attainment with the probabilities of trajectory group memberships. While genetic predispositions do play a part in predicting trajectory group memberships, our results highlight the long arm of socioeconomic factors. Educational attainment is the most robust predictor-it predicts increased probabilities of belonging to trajectories with BMI in the normal range, low depressive symptoms and very-high initial cognition. Childhood circumstances are manifested in trajectories to a lesser extent, with childhood SES predicting higher likelihood of being on the low depressive symptoms and very-high initial cognition trajectories. We also find suggestive evidence that associations of educational attainment on the probabilities of being on trajectories with BMI in the normal range, low depressive symptoms and very-high initial cognition vary with genetic predispositions. Our results suggest that policies to increase educational attainment may improve population health by increasing the likelihood of belonging to "good" aging trajectories.

In utero exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances and early childhood BMI trajectories: A mediation analysis with neonatal metabolic profiles

BACKGROUND

In utero perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure has been associated with childhood adiposity, but the mechanisms are poorly known.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential mediating role of neonatal metabolites in the relationship between prenatal PFAS exposure and childhood adiposity trajectories in the first four years of life.

METHODS

We analyzed the data for 1671 mother-child pairs from the Shanghai Birth Cohort study. We included those with PFAS exposure information in early pregnancy, neonatal metabolites data and at least three child anthropometric measurements at 6, 12, 24 and/or 48 months. Body mass index (BMI) z-score trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modeling. The associations between PFAS concentrations and trajectory classes were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Screening and penalization-based selection was used to identify neonatal amino acids and acylcarnitines with significant mediation effects.

RESULTS

Three BMI z-score trajectories in early childhood were identified: a persistent increase trajectory (Class 1, 2.2 %), a stable trajectory (Class 2, 66 %), and a transient increase trajectory (Class 3, 32 %). Increased odds of being in Class 1 were observed in association with one log-unit increase in concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (odds ratio [OR], 1.76 [95 % CI, 0.96-3.23], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.36 [95 % CI, 1.27-4.40], Class 3 as reference), perfluorononanoic acid (OR, 1.90 [95 % CI, 0.97-3.72], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.23 [95 % CI, 1.12-4.42], Class 3 as reference) and perfluorodecanoic acid (OR, 1.95 [95 % CI, 1.12-3.38], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.14 [95 % CI, 1.22-3.76], Class 3 as reference). The effect of prenatal PFAS exposure on being in Class 1 was significantly but partly mediated by octanoylcarnitine (2.64 % for perfluorononanoic acid and 3.70 % for sum of 10 PFAS).

CONCLUSIONS

In utero PFAS exposure is a risk factor for persistent growth in BMI z-score in early childhood. The alteration of neonatal acylcarnitines suggests a potential molecular pathway.

Body Mass Index Measured Repeatedly over 42 Years as a Risk Factor for Ischemic Stroke: The HUNT Study

BACKGROUND

Higher BMI in middle age is associated with ischemic stroke, but little is known about BMI over adulthood, and the risk for ischemic stroke as most studies relied on a single measurement of BMI.

METHODS

BMI was measured four times over a period of 42 years. We calculated average BMI values and group-based trajectory models and related these to the prospective risk of ischemic stroke after the last examination in Cox models with a follow-up time of 12 years.

RESULTS

A total of 14,139 participants, with a mean age of 65.2 years and 55.4% women, had information on BMI from all four examinations, and we observed 856 ischemic strokes. People with overweight and obesity over adulthood had a higher risk for ischemic stroke with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.29 (95% CI 1.11-1.48) and 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.67), respectively, when compared to normal weight participants. Excess weight tended to have stronger effects earlier than later in life. A trajectory of developing obesity throughout life was associated with higher risk than other trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

High average BMI, especially at an early age, is a risk factor for ischemic stroke. Early weight control and long-term weight reduction for those with high BMI may decrease the later occurrence of ischemic stroke.

Association of body roundness index and its trajectories with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among a Chinese middle-aged and older population: A retrospective cohort study

Objectives

The body roundness index (BRI) is a novel anthropometric index that is a better indicator for predicting fat distribution than the body mass index (BMI). The longitudinal study can repeatedly collect measured results for the variables to be studied and then consider the potential effects of intraindividual changes in measurement. However, few population-based, longitudinal studies of BRI have been conducted, especially among the Chinese population. The study aimed to investigate the association of BRI and its longitudinal trajectories with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Methods

A total of 71,166 participants with four times BRI measurements between January 2010 and December 2019 were included in this longitudinal study, with a median follow-up was 7.93 years, and 11,538 deaths were recorded, of which 5,892 deaths were due to cardiovascular disease (CVD). A latent class growth mixture modeling (LCGMM) was used to identify BRI trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between BRI trajectories and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Results

In the restricted cubic spline regression models, a U-shaped relationship between BRI and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed. Three BRI longitudinal trajectories of low-stable (mean BRI = 2.59), moderate-stable (mean BRI = 3.30), and high-stable (mean BRI = 3.65) were identified by LCGMM. After being adjusted for potential confounders, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (1.13-1.24) for the moderate-stable group and 1.74 (1.66-1.82) for the high-stable group compared to the low-stable group. The HRs for cardiovascular mortality were 1.12 (1.05-1.18) for the moderate-stable group and 1.64 (1.53-1.75) for the high-stable group compared to the low-stable group.

Conclusion

A nonlinear association of BRI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed, and participants in the higher BRI longitudinal trajectory group were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Relationship between BMI trajectories and cardiometabolic outcomes in postmenopausal women: a growth mixture modeling approach

PURPOSE

The objective of this manuscript is to identify longitudinal trajectories of change in body mass index (BMI) after menopause and investigate the association of BMI trajectories with risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among postmenopausal women.

METHODS

Using data from 54,073 participants in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trials, we used growth mixture modeling (GMM) to develop BMI trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the relationship between BMI trajectories with incident diabetes and CVD. Further, we stratified by hormone therapy trial arm and time since menopause.

RESULTS

Using GMM, we identified five BMI trajectories. We did not find evidence of substantial change in BMI over time; the trajectories were stable over the study follow-up period in this sample of postmenopausal women. Risk of diabetes and CVD increased by BMI trajectory; risk was greater for women in moderate-high, high, and very high BMI trajectories compared to those in the lowest trajectory group.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite minimal change in BMI over the follow-up period, our results demonstrate a strong association of high BMI with diabetes and CVD. These results highlight the importance of further longitudinal research focused on adverse health effects of BMI in older women.

Readmission Prediction for Patients with Heterogeneous Medical History: A Trajectory-Based Deep Learning Approach

Hospital readmission refers to the situation where a patient is re-hospitalized with the same primary diagnosis within a specific time interval after discharge. Hospital readmission causes $26 billion preventable expenses to the U.S. health systems annually and often indicates suboptimal patient care. To alleviate those severe financial and health consequences, it is crucial to proactively predict patients’ readmission risk. Such prediction is challenging because the evolution of patients’ medical history is dynamic and complex. The state-of-the-art studies apply statistical models which use static predictors in a period, failing to consider patients’ heterogeneous medical history. Our approach – Trajectory-BAsed DEep Learning (TADEL) – is motivated to tackle the deficiencies of the existing approaches by capturing dynamic medical history. We evaluate TADEL on a five-year national Medicare claims dataset including 3.6 million patients per year over all hospitals in the United States, reaching an F1 score of 87.3% and an AUC of 88.4%. Our approach significantly outperforms all the state-of-the-art methods. Our findings suggest that health status factors and insurance coverage are important predictors for readmission. This study contributes to IS literature and analytical methodology by formulating the trajectory-based readmission prediction problem and developing a novel deep-learning-based readmission risk prediction framework. From a health IT perspective, this research delivers implementable methods to assess patients’ readmission risk and take early interventions to avoid potential negative consequences.

The Reliability and Validity of Recalled Body Shape and the Responsiveness of Obesity Classification Based on Recalled Body Shape Among the Chinese Rural Population

Background

The reliability and validity of recalled body shape were unknown in China. This study was conducted to examine the reliability and validity of recalled body shape as well as the responsiveness of obesity classification by recalled body shape among the Chinese rural population.

Methods

A total of 166 people from the Henan rural cohort were enrolled. The Spearman's correlation coefficient (SCC), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Cronbach's α were calculated to assess the reliability and validity of recalled body shape. Additionally, the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) was performed to assess the responsiveness.

Results

The SCC between the twice recalled body shape ranged from 0.383 to 0.578, and the ICC ranged from 0.357 to 0.615. Besides, the Cronbach's α of the recalled body shape questionnaire was 0.845. At the age of 20–70, the SCC between recalled body shape and actual body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) ranged from 0.563 to 0.699 and 0.409 to 0.661, respectively. Furthermore, above the age of 20, the area under the curve (AUC) of classifying general obesity and abdominal obesity by recalled body shape ranged from 0.833 to 0.960 and 0.686 to 0.870, respectively.

Conclusion

The results indicated that recalled body shape had moderate reliability, validity, and discriminative degree for earlier obesity among the Chinese rural population.

Prenatal Exposure to Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances and Child Growth Trajectories in the First Two Years

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women are ubiquitously exposed to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Prenatal exposure to PFAS has been associated with lower birth weight but also with excess adiposity and higher weight in childhood. These mixed findings warrant investigation of the relationship between PFAS and dynamic offspring growth.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between prenatal PFAS exposure and early-life growth trajectories during the first 2 y.

METHODS

Pregnant women (n=3,426) were recruited from 2013 to 2016 from the Shanghai Birth Cohort (SBC) Study, and their children were followed up from birth to 2 y of age. Seven PFAS congeners were quantified in pregnant women's serum during the first trimester. Our study population was restricted to 1,350 children who had five repeated measurements for at least one anthropometric measure. Four anthropometric measures, including weight, length/height, weight-for-length, and head circumference, were evaluated at birth, 42 d, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months, and standardized into z-scores using the World Health Organization reference. Trajectories of each measure were classified into five groups using group-based trajectory modeling. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for trajectory groups according to log2-transformed PFAS concentrations, and the moderate-stable group was selected as the reference group for all measures.

RESULTS

Higher prenatal exposure to PFAS was associated with elevated odds for the low-rising weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) trajectory, and the high-rising length-for-age z-score (LAZ) trajectory. Meanwhile, PFAS levels were associated with decreased odds for the low-rising and high-rising weight-for-length z-score (WLZ) trajectories. In addition, the associations of PFAS with growth trajectory groups differed by sex, where males had greater odds for the low-rising and low-stable WAZ trajectories and for the high-stable and low-rising WLZ trajectories. In contrast, inverse associations were consistently observed with trajectories of the high-stable, low-stable, and low-rising head-circumference-for-age z-score (HCZ) in relation to most individual PFAS congeners. PFAS mixtures analysis further confirmed the above findings.

DISCUSSION

Trajectory analysis approach provided insight into the complex associations between PFAS exposure and offspring growth. Future studies are warranted to confirm the present findings with trajectory modeling strategies and understand the clinical significance of these trajectory groups. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9875.

Agreement between self-assessment of body image and measured body mass index in the Brazilian adult population

Silhouettes are used in the self-assessment of one's body size, shape and satisfaction. This technique can be helpful in intervention studies and in household studies in which body size measurements are not feasible. Despite its popularity, few studies have validated the Stunkard Figure Rating Scale (SFRS) to assess body image (BI) or nutritional status (NS). The present study assessed the agreement between self-assessment of BI by SFRS and measured BMI in adults from a national household survey in Brazil (n = 11247; 57.2% women, aged 20-99y). The subjects were asked to choose a silhouette from the SFRS that most resembled their current status prior to measures of body mass and stature. BMI-derived NS was then matched to the SFRS. The prevalence of overweight and obesity (OB) was 34.4 and 19.0%, respectively. Weighted kappa between SFRS and BMI was 0.45 and 0.43 and Spearman's correlation coefficient was 0.64 and 0.59 for women and men, respectively. Sex-specific receiver operating curves indicated that the silhouettes correctly (area under the curve > 0.80) identified OB and underweight (UW). In conclusion, SFRS provides only reasonable results when estimating the BMI distribution but it works well to identify OB and UW in the Brazilian adult population.

Life-course trajectories of weight and their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes

Although exposure to overweight and obesity at different ages is associated to a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, the effect of different patterns of exposure through life remains unclear. We aimed to characterize life-course trajectories of weight categories and estimate their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. We categorized the weight of 7203 participants as lean, normal or overweight at five time-points from ages 7–55 using retrospective data. Participants were followed for an average of 19 years for the development of type 2 diabetes. We used latent class analysis to describe distinctive trajectories and estimated the risk ratio, absolute risk difference and population attributable fraction (PAF) associated to different trajectories using Poisson regression. We found five distinctive life-course trajectories. Using the stable-normal weight trajectory as reference, the stable overweight, lean increasing weight, overweight from early adulthood and overweight from late adulthood trajectories were associated to higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The estimated risk ratios and absolute risk differences were statistically significant for all trajectories, except for the risk ratio of the lean increasing trajectory group among men. Of the 981 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 47.4% among women and 42.9% among men were attributable to exposure to any life-course trajectory different from stable normal weight. Most of the risk was attributable to trajectories including overweight or obesity at any point of life (36.8% of the cases among women and 36.7% among men). The overweight from early adulthood trajectory had the highest impact (PAF: 23.2% for woman and 28.5% for men). We described five distinctive life-course trajectories of weight that were associated to increased risk of type 2 diabetes over 19 years of follow-up. The variability of the effect of exposure to overweight and obesity on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes was largely explained by exposure to the different life-course trajectories of weight.

Childhood Risk Factors and Adulthood Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a comprehensive review of the literature on childhood risk factors and their associations with adulthood subclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD).

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic search was performed using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases to identify English-language articles published through June 2018. Articles were included if they were longitudinal studies in community-based populations, the primary exposure occurred during childhood, and the primary outcome was either a measure of subclinical CVD or a clinical CVD event occurring in adulthood. Two independent reviewers screened determined whether eligibility criteria were met.

RESULTS

There were 210 articles that met the predefined criteria. The greatest number of publications examined associations of clinical risk factors, including childhood adiposity, blood pressure, and cholesterol, with the development of adult CVD. Few studies examined childhood lifestyle factors including diet quality, physical activity, and tobacco exposure. Domains of risk beyond "traditional" cardiovascular risk factors, such as childhood psychosocial adversity, seemed to have strong published associations with the development of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the evidence was fairly consistent in direction and magnitude for exposures such as childhood adiposity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, significant gaps remain in the understanding of how childhood health and behaviors translate to the risk of adulthood CVD, particularly in lesser studied exposures like glycemic indicators, physical activity, diet quality, very early life course exposure, and population subgroups.

Dose-response relationship between distinct serum uric acid trajectories and metabolic syndrome risk: A 5-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although high serum uric acid (SUA) at baseline has been linked to increased risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS), the association of longitudinal SUA changes with MetS risk is unclear. We aimed to examine the effect of distinct SUA trajectories on new-onset MetS risk by sex in a Chinese cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 2364 women and 2770 men who were free of MetS in 2013 were enrolled in this study and followed up to 2018. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify SUA trajectories. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the association between SUA trajectory and new-onset MetS. The dose-response relationship between SUA trajectories and MetS risk was examined by treating trajectory groups as a continuous variable. During a median follow-up of 48.0 months, 311 (13.16%) women and 950 (34.30%) men developed MetS. SUA trajectories (2013-2018) were defined as four distinct patterns in both women and men: "low", "moderate", "moderate-high", and "high". Compared with "low" SUA trajectory, the adjusted hazard ratio for incident MetS among participants with "moderate", "moderate-high" and "high" trajectory was in a dose-response manner: 1.75 (95% CI: 1.08-2.82), 1.94 (95% CI: 1.20-3.14), and 3.05 (95% CI: 1.81-5.13), respectively, for women; 1.20 (95% CI: 0.97-1.49), 1.48 (95% CI: 1.19-1.85), and 1.66 (95% CI: 1.25-2.21), respectively, for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated SUA trajectories are associated with increased risk for new-onset MetS in women and men. Monitoring SUA trajectories may assist in identifying subpopulations at higher risk for MetS.

Weight change from childhood to adulthood and cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in adulthood: A systematic review of the literature

The magnitude of the associations between life-course change in weight status and health outcomes in adulthood has been inconsistent. This study aims to examine the associations between weight change from childhood to adulthood and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and outcomes in adulthood. PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Science between 1 August 1953 and 13 July 2020 were searched, and a total of 52 eligible articles were included. The systematic review supported significant associations between the life-course increase in BMI and high odds of markers in adulthood. In the meta-analyses, normal weight in childhood but excess weight in adulthood or persistent excess weight was associated with increased odds of adult markers. However, those who had excess weight in childhood but were normal weight in adulthood did not have increased odds of nearly all adult markers. This systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that individuals who developed excess weight in adulthood or had excess weight in both periods had higher odds of developing CVD risk factors and outcomes in adulthood. In contrast, the probability of these adult markers could be limited or eliminated for children with excess weight who are able to become adults with normal weight.

Weight gain during early adulthood, trajectory of body shape and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A prospective cohort study among women

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Obesity is established as a major risk factor for the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the influence of dynamic changes in adiposity over the life course on NAFLD risk remains poorly understood.

METHODS

We collected data from 110,054 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort. Early adulthood weight was ascertained at age 18 years, and weight gain since early adulthood was defined prospectively every 2 years. We used a group-based modeling approach to identify five trajectories of body shape from age 5 years up to age 50 years. NAFLD was defined by physician-confirmed diagnoses of fatty liver, after excluding excess alcohol intake and viral hepatitis, using validated approaches.

RESULTS

We documented 3798 NAFLD cases over a total of 20 years of follow-up. Compared to women who maintained stable weight (±2 kg), women with ≥20 kg of adulthood weight gain had the multivariable aHR of 6.96 (95% CI, 5.27-9.18), and this remained significant after further adjusting for early adulthood BMI and updated BMI (both P trend <0.0001). Compared to women with a medium-stable body shape trajectory, the multivariable aHRs for NAFLD were, 2.84 (95% CI, 2.50-3.22) for lean-marked increase, 2.60 (95% CI, 2.27-2.98) for medium-moderate increase, and 3.39 (95% CI, 2.95-3.89) for medium-marked increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Both early adulthood weight gain and lifetime body shape trajectory were significantly and independently associated with excess risk of developing NAFLD in mid-life. Maintaining both lean and stable weight throughout life may offer the greatest benefit for the prevention of NAFLD.

Latent Class Trajectory Modeling of 2-Component Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints Identifies Multiple Rheumatoid Arthritis Phenotypes of Response to Biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether using a reweighted disease activity score that better reflects joint synovitis, i.e., the 2-component Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) (based on swollen joint count and C-reactive protein level), produces more clinically relevant treatment outcome trajectories compared to the standard 4-component DAS28.

METHODS

Latent class mixed modeling of response to biologic treatment was applied to 2,991 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in whom treatment with a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug was being initiated within the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate cohort, using both 4-component and 2-component DAS28 scores as outcome measures. Patient groups with similar trajectories were compared in terms of pretreatment baseline characteristics (including disability and comorbidities) and follow-up characteristics (including antidrug antibody events, adherence to treatments, and blood drug levels). We compared the trajectories obtained using the 4- and 2-component scores to determine which characteristics were better captured by each.

RESULTS

Using the 4-component DAS28, we identified 3 trajectory groups, which is consistent with previous findings. We showed that the 4-component DAS28 captures information relating to depression. Using the 2-component DAS28, 7 trajectory groups were identified; among them, distinct groups of nonresponders had a higher incidence of respiratory comorbidities and a higher proportion of antidrug antibody events. We also identified a group of patients for whom the 2-component DAS28 scores remained relatively low; this group included a high percentage of patients who were nonadherent to treatment. This highlights the utility of both the 4- and 2-component DAS28 for monitoring different components of disease activity.

CONCLUSION

Here we show that the 2-component modified DAS28 defines important biologic and clinical phenotypes associated with treatment outcome in RA and characterizes important underlying response mechanisms to biologic drugs.

Body mass index trajectory across childhood and subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure

We investigated the relationship between the body mass index (BMI) trajectory across childhood and the subsequent occurrence of elevated blood pressure (BP) in the Chinese pediatric population. The study cohort from the China Health and Nutrition Survey comprised 1484 children, each of whom underwent three BP and BMI assessments during childhood and had a non-elevated BP during the first childhood assessment. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify four distinct BMI trajectories across childhood: lean-stable increase, medium-marked increase, heavy marked decrease, and heavy marked increase. Elevated BP in childhood was as defined in the China's national BP reference for children. Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of BMI trajectories with elevated BP. Overall, 27.6% of all participants between 3 and 13 years of age during the first childhood assessment developed elevated BP during a mean 6.5-year follow-up. Compared with participants in the lean-stable increase group, those in the medium-marked increase and heavy marked increase groups were more likely to have elevated BP (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], OR [95% CI]: 1.46 [1.08, 1.96] and 5.29 [2.44, 11.48], respectively; P_s < .05). The OR for the heavy marked decrease group was not statistically significant (OR [95% CI]: 1.58 [0.80, 3.13]; P = .192). In summary, distinct BMI trajectories conferred significantly different odds of elevated BP upon children, thus underscoring the importance of weight management in early life.

Somatotypes trajectories during adulthood and their association with COPD phenotypes

RATIONALE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) comprises distinct phenotypes, all characterised by airflow limitation.

OBJECTIVES

We hypothesised that somatotype changes - as a surrogate of adiposity - from early adulthood follow different trajectories to reach distinct phenotypes.

METHODS

Using the validated Stunkard's Pictogram, 356 COPD patients chose the somatotype that best reflects their current body build and those at ages 18, 30, 40 and 50 years. An unbiased group-based trajectory modelling was used to determine somatotype trajectories. We then compared the current COPD-related clinical and phenotypic characteristics of subjects belonging to each trajectory.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

At 18 years of age, 88% of the participants described having a lean or medium somatotype (estimated body mass index (BMI) between 19 and 23 kg·m-2) while the other 12% a heavier somatotype (estimated BMI between 25 and 27 kg·m-2). From age 18 onwards, five distinct trajectories were observed. Four of them demonstrating a continuous increase in adiposity throughout adulthood with the exception of one, where the initial increase was followed by loss of adiposity after age 40. Patients with this trajectory were primarily females with low BMI and D LCO (diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide). A persistently lean trajectory was seen in 14% of the cohort. This group had significantly lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), D LCO, more emphysema and a worse BODE (BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exercise capacity) score thus resembling the multiple organ loss of tissue (MOLT) phenotype.

CONCLUSIONS

COPD patients have distinct somatotype trajectories throughout adulthood. Those with the MOLT phenotype maintain a lean trajectory throughout life. Smoking subjects with this lean phenotype in early adulthood deserve particular attention as they seem to develop more severe COPD.

Association of Cesarean Birth with Body Mass Index Trajectories in Adolescence

Background: This study aimed to identify patterns of body mass index (BMI) changes in adolescence and to assess whether delivery mode (Cesarean and vaginal delivery) was associated with BMI trajectories. Methods: This study was conducted among 569 adolescents aged 10–15 years that resided in the city of Zibo, China. The height and weight of each participant were repeatedly measured at 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 years. Group based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to estimate BMI change trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the independent association of delivery mode and BMI trajectory classes. Results: Of the 569 participants, 407 (71.5%) were vaginal deliveries and 162 (28.5%) were Cesarean deliveries. Five distinct long-term BMI trajectories were identified: “persistent healthy weight” (57.5%), “persistent underweight” (6.5%), “obesity to healthy weight” (7.8%), “progressive overweight” (10.6%), “progressive obesity” (17.6%). Adjusted multinomial logistic models revealed a twofold increase in risks between ages 10–15 years of “progressive obesity” trajectory (OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.42, 4.41) for children born through Cesarean section compared with vaginal birth. Conclusions: Five distinct long-term BMI trajectories were identified during adolescence in our research, and we confirmed that Cesarean birth was significantly increased the risk of “progressive obesity” trajectory but not the “obesity to healthy weight” trajectory.

Childhood obesity: an overview of laboratory medicine, exercise and microbiome

In the last few years, a significant increase of childhood obesity incidence unequally distributed within countries and population groups has been observed, thus representing an important public health problem associated with several health and social consequences. Obese children have more than a 50% probability of becoming obese adults, and to develop pathologies typical of obese adults, that include type 2-diabetes, dyslipidemia and hypertension. Also environmental factors, such as reduced physical activity and increased sedentary activities, may also result in increased caloric intake and/or decreased caloric expenditure. In the present review, we aimed to identify and describe a specific panel of parameters in order to evaluate and characterize the childhood obesity status useful in setting up a preventive diagnostic approach directed at improving health-related behaviors and identifying predisposing risk factors. An early identification of risk factors for childhood obesity could definitely help in setting up adequate and specific clinical treatments.

Long-Term Burden of Increased Body Mass Index from Childhood on Adult Dyslipidemia: The i3C Consortium Study

Background: Data are limited regarding the association of cumulative burden and trajectory of body mass index (BMI) from early life with adult lipid disorders. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 5195 adults who had BMI repeatedly measured 4 to 21 times from childhood and had blood lipid measurements of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) and information on lipid-lowering medications in the last adult survey. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as a measure of long-term burden (total AUC) and trends (incremental AUC) of BMI. Results: Participants with dyslipidemia, high LDL-C, low HDL-C and high TG had consistently and significantly higher BMI levels from childhood to adulthood compared to those with normal lipid levels. After adjusting for age, race, sex, and cohort, increased risk of adult dyslipidemia was significantly associated with higher values of childhood BMI, adulthood BMI, total AUC and incremental AUC, with odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.22 (1.15–1.29), 1.85 (1.74–1.97), 1.61 (1.52–1.71), and 1.59 (1.50–1.69), respectively, and p < 0.001 for all. The association patterns were similar in most race–sex subgroups. Conclusions: Adults with dyslipidemia versus normal lipid levels have consistently higher levels and distinct life-course trajectories of BMI, suggesting that the impact of excessive body weight on dyslipidemia originates in early life.

Body Silhouette Trajectories Across the Lifespan and Vascular Aging

Vascular aging is a major contributor to cardiovascular disease and can be quantified by higher carotid stiffness, intima-media thickness and diameter, and hypertension. Weight gain across the lifetime may be an important, modifiable determinant of vascular aging. We therefore aimed to assess lifetime body silhouette trajectories (a marker of weight change across the lifespan) in relation to vascular aging in late adulthood. We used cross-sectional data from a community-based cohort study (n=8243; age, 59.4; 38.7% women). A linear mixed model was used to assess trajectories of recalled body silhouettes from age 8 to 45 years. We assessed carotid artery properties (ultrasonography), resting hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensives), and exaggerated exercise blood pressure, a marker of masked hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥150 mm Hg during submaximal exercise) at study recruitment when the participants were 50 to 75 years of age. We identified 5 distinct body silhouette trajectories: lean stable (32.0%), lean increase (11.1%), moderate stable (32.5%), lean-marked increase (16.3%), and heavy stable (8.1%). Compared with individuals in the lean-stable trajectory, those in the moderate-stable, lean-marked increase, and heavy-stable trajectories had higher carotid stiffness, intima-media thickness and diameter (odds ratios between 1.23 and 2.10 for highest quartile versus lowest quartile of manifestations of vascular aging; P<0.05) and were more likely to have resting hypertension and exaggerated exercise blood pressure, after adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratios between 1.31 and 1.60; P<0.05). Vascular aging was most prominent among individuals who were lean in early life but markedly gained weight during young adulthood and among those who were heavy in early life and maintained weight.

Associations between genetic variants associated with body mass index and trajectories of body fatness across the life course: a longitudinal analysis

Background

The genetic associations with trajectories of body fatness over the life course remain unknown.

Methods

We used a group-based modelling approach to identify trajectories of body fatness from age 5 years up to 65 for 7277 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 4645 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We created a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 97 variants associated with adulthood body mass index (BMI) and estimated its association with trajectories using logistic regression.

Results

We identified four distinct trajectories: lean-medium, medium-medium, lean-heavy and medium-heavy. The GRS increased across the four groups in that order (P < 0.001); 47% of women and 45% of men in the first decile of the GRS were in the lean-medium group, and these proportions reduced to 26% and 28%, respectively, for the highest decile. The corresponding proportions in the medium-heavy group were 8% and 5%, increasing to 21% and 14%, respectively. For women, compared with the odds of being in the lean-medium group, a 10-allele increment in the GRS was associated with a 40% [95% confidence interval (CI), 27-54%], 43% (30-58%), and 115% (91-143%) increase in the odds of being in the medium-medium, lean-heavy and medium-heavy groups, respectively. For men, the corresponding increases in the odds were 26% (12-42%), 27% (13-43%), and 81% (53-115%), respectively.

Conclusions

Individuals with genetic variants for adulthood BMI were more likely to maintain a heavy body shape and gain weight throughout life. These findings support a persistent effect of genetic variants on body fatness across the lifespan.

Body shape trajectories and the incidence of hypertension in a Mediterranean cohort: The sun study

AIMS

Our aim was to assess the association between trajectories of body-shape across the first 40 years of life and subsequent development of hypertension in a Mediterranean cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a group-based modeling approach to assess body shape trajectories from age 5 to 40 years, among 7514 participants included in the SUN study (1999-2016), and assessed the subsequent incidence of hypertension. To create the trajectories, we used a censored normal model as a polynomial function of age. Cox models were used to estimates hazard ratios (HR) for hypertension according to body shape trajectories. Identified trajectories were "childhood lean -mid-life increase", "childhood medium-mid-life stable", " childhood heavy -mid-life decrease", and "childhood heavy -mid-life increase" for women; and "childhood lean-mid-life increase", "childhood medium-mid-life stable", "childhood medium -mid-life increase" and "childhood heavy-mid-life stable" for men. After a follow-up of 63,068 person-years, 865 incident cases of hypertension were found. Among women, compared to those in the "childhood medium-mid-life stable" trajectory, those, in the "childhood heavy -mid-life increase" trajectory showed higher risk to develop hypertension [HR = 1.72 (1.17-2.53)]. In men, compared with those in the "childhood medium-mid-life stable" trajectory, those in the "childhood lean and childhood medium -mid-life increase" and the "childhood heavy- mid-life stable" trajectories showed higher subsequent incidence of hypertension [HR = 1.43 (1.11-1.85), HR = 1.52 (1.17-1.97) and HR = 1.56 (1.14-2.14), respectively] after adjusting for potential confounders (including age, lifestyles, dietary intake, personality traits, physical activity and sedentary behaviors).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that mid-life increases in body shape or maintaining a heavy body shape during early and middle life in men and childhood heavy-mid-life increase in women is associated with a higher subsequent risk of developing hypertension in this Mediterranean population.

Change in body mass index from childhood onwards and risk of adult cardiovascular disease

Childhood obesity adversely affects the structure and function of the cardiovascular system, but the relationship between excessive weight gain during childhood and adult cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. This review summarizes evidence for associations of change in body mass index (BMI) from childhood onwards with CVD outcomes. We found that excessive gain in BMI from childhood onwards was consistently associated with the presence of CVD risk factors, with increased risks of coronary heart disease, and there were suggestions of associations with stroke, atrial fibrillation and heart failure, but a lack of evidence precludes firm conclusions. These results indicate that the risk of CVD can be traced back to child ages and highlights the importance of primordial prevention of CVD by preventing excessive weight gain in childhood.

Ethnicity-specific association of BMI levels at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk

AIM

To evaluate the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality at different BMI levels in conjunction with weight change prior to diagnosis of T2DM in a multi-ethnic population.

METHODS

Longitudinal study of 51,455 patients with T2DM and without a history of comorbid diseases at diagnosis. Weight changes prior to diagnosis of T2DM were evaluated, and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality at different BMI levels among three ethnic groups estimated using treatment effects model.

RESULTS

White Europeans (WE), African-Caribbeans (AC), and South Asians (SA) were mean 52, 49, and 47 years with a mean BMI of 33.0, 32.0, and 30.0 kg/m² at diagnosis, respectively. Among WE, normal weight patients developed CVD significantly earlier by 0.5 years (95% CI 0.1, 0.9 years; p = 0.018) compared to obese patients. Furthermore, those with normal body weight at diagnosis were significantly more likely to die earlier by 0.6 years (95% CI 0.03, 1.2 years; p = 0.037) among WE and by 2.5 years (95% CI 0.3, 4.6 years; p = 0.023) among SA compared to their respective obese patients. However, BMI at diagnosis was not associated with increased risk of CVD and death among AC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests a paradoxical association of BMI with cardiovascular and mortality risks in different ethnic groups, which may partially be driven by different cardiovascular and glycaemic risk profiles at diagnosis.