Attributable causes of cancer in China

Health impacts of new-onset diabetes in women post-gestational diabetes mellitus: Insights from Hong Kong's territory-wide data

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

To determine the population health burden attributable to the development of diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of women with a history of GDM attending the Hong Kong Hospital Authority between 2000 and 2019. The time-varying population attributable fraction was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 76,181 women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus were included, 6,606 of them developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 8.6 years. The respective hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) among women with GDM who developed diabetes vs those with GDM only were 2.8 (2.2, 3.7) for cardiovascular disease (CVD), 4.8 (3.0, 7.7) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), 2.2 (1.9, 2.6) for infection-related hospitalization, and 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) for all-cause mortality. The development of diabetes was associated with 1.3 (0.8, 1.7), 0.6 (0.3, 0.8), 3.2 (2.4, 4.0), and 0.5 (0.2, 0.9) additional incident cases per 1,000 person-years, accounting for 24.0% (13.2%, 35.9%), 42.0% (22.5%, 58.8%), 10.8% (7.1%, 14.9%), and 6.0% (-3.1%, 16.1%) of absolute number of CVD, ESKD, infection-related hospitalization, and all-cause mortality over 20 years after GDM, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes is a significant contributor to the population health burden of some clinical outcomes in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, but other risk factors need to be considered.

A prospective health economic evaluation to determine the productivity loss due to premature mortality from oral cancer in India

INTRODUCTION

India contributes two-thirds of the global mortality due to oral cancer and has a younger population at risk. The societal costs of this premature mortality are barely discussed.

METHODS

Using the human capital approach, we aimed to estimate the productivity lost due to premature mortality, valued using individual socioeconomic data, related to oral cancer in India. A bottom-up approach was used to prospectively collect data of 100 consecutive patients with oral cancer treated between 2019 and 2020, with a follow-up of 36 months.

RESULTS

The disease-specific survival for early and advanced stage was 85% and 70%, with a median age of 47 years. With 671 years lost prematurely, the loss of productivity was $41 900/early and $96 044/advanced stage. Based on population level rates, the total cost of premature mortality was $5.6 billion, representing 0.18% of GDP.

CONCLUSION

India needs to implement tailored strategies to reduce the economic burden from premature mortality.

Identification of 5-nitroindazole as a multitargeted inhibitor for CDK and transferase kinase in lung cancer: a multisampling algorithm-based structural study

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer, which is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. The FDA has approved almost 100 drugs against lung cancer, but it is still not curable as most drugs target a single protein and block a single pathway. In this study, we screened the Drug Bank library against three major proteins- ribosomal protein S6 kinase alpha-6 (6G77), cyclic-dependent protein kinase 2 (1AQ1), and insulin-like growth factor 1 (1K3A) of lung cancer and identified the compound 5-nitroindazole (DB04534) as a multitargeted inhibitor that potentially can treat lung cancer. For the screening, we deployed multisampling algorithms such as HTVS, SP and XP, followed by the MM\GBSA calculation, and the study was extended to molecular fingerprinting analysis, pharmacokinetics prediction, and Molecular Dynamics simulation to understand the complex's stability. The docking scores against the proteins 6G77, 1AQ1, and 1K3A were - 6.884 kcal/mol, - 7.515 kcal/mol, and - 6.754 kcal/mol, respectively. Also, the compound has shown all the values satisfying the ADMET criteria, and the fingerprint analysis has shown wide similarities and the water WaterMap analysis that helped justify the compound's suitability. The molecular dynamics of each complex have shown a cumulative deviation of less than 2 Å, which is considered best for the biomolecules, especially for the protein-ligand complexes. The best feature of the identified drug candidate is that it targets multiple proteins that control cell division and growth hormone mediates simultaneously, reducing the burden of the pharmaceutical industry by reducing the resistance chance.

The trend of lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 and lymphoma incidence trend prediction from 2018 to 2035: a log-linear regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Objectives

The aims of this study were to explore the incidence characteristics and trend prediction of lymphoma from 2005 to 2035, and to provide data basis for the prevention and control of lymphoma in China.

Method

The data on lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect time trends. Age-period-cohort models were conducted to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the lymphoma incidence. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lymphoma incidence trends from 2018 to 2035.

Results

From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma was 6.26/100,000, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 4.11/100,000, with an AAPC of 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3%, 2.5%]. The ASIR was higher in men and urban areas than in women and rural areas, respectively. The age effect showed that the incidence risk of lymphoma increased with age. In the period effect, the incidence risk of lymphoma in rural areas decreased first and then increased with 2010 as the cutoff point. The overall risk of lymphoma incidence was higher in the cohort before the 1970-1974 birth cohort than in the cohort after. From 2018 to 2035, the lymphoma incidence in men, women, and urban areas will show an upward trend.

Conclusion

From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma showed an increasing trend, and was different in regions, genders, and age groups in China. It will show an upward trend from 2018 to 2035. These results are helpful for the formulation and adjustment of lymphoma prevention, control, and management strategies, and have important reference significance for the treatment of lymphoma in China.

Mapping recommendations towards an Asian Code Against Cancer (ACAC) as part of the World Code Against Cancer Framework: an Asian National Cancer Centers Alliance (ANCCA) initiative

This paper outlines the process undertaken by Asian National Cancer Centers Alliance (ANCCA) members in working towards an Asian Code Against Cancer (ACAC). The process involves: (i) identification of the criteria for selecting the existing set of national recommendations for ACAC (ii) compilation of existing national codes or recommendations on cancer prevention (iii) reviewing the scientific evidence on cancer risk factors in Asia and (iv) establishment of one or more ACAC under the World Code Against Cancer Framework. A matrix of national codes or key recommendations against cancer in ANCCA member countries is presented. These include taking actions to prevent or control tobacco consumption, obesity, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, exposure to occupational and environmental toxins; and to promote breastfeeding, vaccination against infectious agents and cancer screening. ANCCA will continue to serve as a supportive platform for collaboration, development, and advocacy of an ACAC jointly with the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization (IARC/WHO).

Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

Molecular screening reveals Variolin B as a multitargeted inhibitor of lung cancer: a molecular docking-based fingerprinting and molecular dynamics simulation study

Lung Cancer is the topmost death causing cancer and results from smoking, air pollution, cigar, exposure to asbestos or radon-like substances, and genetic factors. The cases of Lung Cancer in south Asian developing nations are being seen most due to heavy pollution and unbalanced lifestyle and putting a considerable burden on healthcare systems. The Food and Drug Administration of the USA has approved almost 100 drugs against SCLC and NSLC and a few drugs that are given to minimise the side effect of anticancer drugs. However, the drugs are shown to be resistant at significantly higher stages and non-affective on cancerous cells and have long-term side effects due to designing the drug by keeping one protein/gene target while designing or repurposing the drugs. In this study, we have taken five main lung cancer protein targets- Nerve growth factor protein (1SG1), Apoptosis inhibitor survivin (1XOX), Heat shock protein (3IUC), Protein tyrosine phosphate (3ZM3), Aldo-keto reductase (4XZL) and screened the complete prepared Drug Bank library of 155888 compounds and identified Variolin B (DB08694) as a multitargeted inhibitor against lung cancer using HTVS, SP and XP sampling algorithms followed by MM\GBSA calculation to sort the best pose. Variolin B is a natural marine antitumor and antiviral compound, so we analysed the ADMET properties and interaction patterns and then simulated all five P-L complexes for 100 ns in water using the NPT ensemble to check its selves against lung cancer. The docking results, ADMET and fingerprints have shown a good performance, and RMSD and RMSF results were with least deviation and fluctuations (<2Å) and produced a huge contact with other residues making the complex stable. The complexes initially fluctuated and deviated due to changes in the solute medium and sudden heat and stabilise after a few ns. However, extensive experimental validation is required before human use.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Proportion of liver cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in China

BACKGROUND

Understanding the differences in the burden of liver cancer due to different risk factors across provinces is critical to informing and improving liver cancer prevention and control. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer in all 31 provinces of China in 2016.

METHODS

Prevalence estimates of risk factors were derived from representative surveys. We used pooled relative risks obtained from several recent large-scale pooled analyses or high-quality meta-analyses. We calculated PAFs using multiple formulas which included exposure prevalence and relative risk data stratified by sex, age and province, and then combined and created overall PAFs by sex, risk factors and risk factor groups.

RESULTS

Approximately 252 046 liver cancer cases {69.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 52.6, 76.5]} and 212 704 deaths [67.7% (95% CI 50.9, 74.6)] were attributable to modifiable risk factors in China in 2016. The overall PAF for liver cancer was approximately 1.5 times higher in men than in women, with the top three risk factors in men being hepatitis B virus (HBV), smoking and alcohol drinking, whereas in women, they were HBV, excess body weight and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Among the risk factor groups, infectious agents had the highest PAF, followed by behavioural factors and metabolic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The PAF for liver cancer caused by modifiable risk factors varies widely among provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions in China. The use of tailored primary prevention strategies across provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions has great potential to reduce the burden and disparities of liver cancer.

Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender

OBJECTIVES

This study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset.

METHOD

Based on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040.

RESULTS

Globally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer.

CONCLUSION

From 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.

Economic burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Japan

Controlling avoidable causes of cancer may save cancer-related healthcare costs and indirect costs of premature deaths and productivity loss. This study aimed to estimate the economic burden of cancer attributable to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors in Japan in 2015. We evaluated the economic cost of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors from a societal perspective. We obtained the direct medical costs for 2015 from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan, and estimated the indirect costs of premature mortality and of morbidity due to cancer using the relevant national surveys in Japan. Finally, we estimated the economic cost of cancer associated with lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The estimated cost of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors was 1,024,006 million Japanese yen (¥) (8,460 million US dollars [$]) for both sexes, and ¥673,780 million ($5,566 million) in men and ¥350,226 million ($2,893 million) in women, using the average exchange rate in 2015 ($1 = ¥121.044). A total of ¥285,150 million ($2,356 million) was lost due to premature death in Japan in 2015. Indirect morbidity costs that could have been prevented were estimated to be ¥200,602 million ($1,657 million). Productivity loss was highest for stomach cancer in men (¥28,735 million/$237 million) and cervical cancer in women (¥24,448 million/$202 million). Preventing and controlling cancers caused by infections including Helicobacter pylori, human papillomavirus and tobacco smoking will not only be life-saving but may also be cost-saving in the long run.

Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a group of malignancies, involving the oral cavity, pharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, nasal cavity, and salivary glands, that together compose the seventh most common cancer diagnosis worldwide. With 890,000 new cases and 450,000 deaths annually per GLOBOCAN estimates, HNSCC accounts for roughly 4.5% of cancer diagnoses and deaths. In the developing world, the incidence of HNSCC is growing with increasing consumption of tobacco (smoked or chewed), alcohol, and areca nut (betel quid). Alcohol and tobacco have a synergistic effect, with the heavy consumption of both increasing HNSCC risk 40-fold. In developed nations, HPV-related HNSCC surpasses tobacco- and alcohol-related disease. HPV-related HNSCC more commonly affects the oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx than the oral cavity, and is associated with a significantly longer median survival (130 months vs. 20 months). Discrepancies in etiology as well as disparities in lifestyle choices and access to healthcare may account for the greater incidence and poorer survival of HNSCC among minority and lower-socioeconomic-status communities in developed nations. Pharmacotherapy and counseling together have been shown to be effective in promoting smoking and alcohol cessation. Education on cancer risk and community engagement have reduced areca nut consumption in Asia as well as in diaspora communities. HPV vaccination, starting at age 11-12 for both sexes, has been shown to reduce the prevalence of high-risk HPV serologies and prevent pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix, vagina, and vulva. As of 2020, 58.6% of eligible adolescents in the US have received the full two-vaccine series. Increased adoption of vaccination, education on safe sex practices, and routine visual oral screening for high-risk patients would curb growing HNSCC incidence in developed nations.

Estimation of cancer mortality attributable to excess body weight during 2006–2015 in China

BACKGROUND

Cancer is one of the most common causes of death. Excess body weight (EBW), a risk factor for cancer, is highly prevalent in China. We aimed to estimate the number and proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW and their changes during 2006-2015 in China.

METHODS

Population attributable fractions in 2006, 2010, and 2015 were calculated with 1) prevalence of overweight/obesity, exacted from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted in 8-9 provinces of China in 1997, 2000, and 2004; 2) relative risks for EBW and site-specific cancers, obtained from previous studies; 3) data on cancer deaths in 2006, 2010, and 2015, originated from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report.

RESULTS

In 2015, EBW contributed to 45,918 (3.1% of all) cancer deaths in China, with 24,978 (2.6%) in men and 20,940 (3.8%) in women. By region, the fraction of cancer deaths attributable to EBW ranged from 1.6% (West) to 4.1% (Northeast). Cancers of liver, stomach, and colorectum were the main EBW-attributable cancers. The fractions of cancer deaths attributable to EBW were 2.4% (95%CI: 0.8-4.2%) in 2006, 2.9% (95%CI: 1.0-5.2%) in 2010, and 3.1% (95%CI: 1.0-5.4%) in 2015, respectively, and increased for all gender, region, and cancer site during 2006-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW was higher in women and Northeastern China, with an upward trend in the recent decade. A combination of comprehensive and individualized measures is necessary to reduce the prevalence of EBW and related cancer burden in China.

Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019

Background

In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies.

Methods

Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer.

Conclusion

A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Optimization of Cancer Risk Assessment Models for PM2.5-Bound PAHs: Application in Jingzhong, Shanxi, China

The accurate evaluation of the carcinogenic risk of PM_2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is crucial because of the teratogenic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic effects of PAHs. The best model out of six models was selected across three highly used categories in recent years, including the USEPA-recommended inhalation risk (Model I), inhalation carcinogen unit risk (Models IIA-IID), and three exposure pathways (inhalation, dermal, and oral) (Model III). Model I was found to be superior to the other models, and its predicted risk values were in accordance with the thresholds of PM_2.5 and benzo[a]pyrene in ambient-air-quality standards. Models IIA and III overestimated the risk of cancer compared to the actual cancer incidence in the local population. Model IID can replace Models IIB and IIC as these models exhibited no statistically significant differences between each other. Furthermore, the exposure parameters were optimized for Model I and significant differences were observed with respect to country and age. However, the gender difference was not statistically significant. In conclusion, Model I is recommended as the more suitable model, but in assessing cancer risk in the future, the exposure parameters must be appropriate for each country.

Association between serum arginine levels and cancer risk: A community-based nested case-control study

OBJECTIVE

The effect of arginine on tumors appears to be bidirectional. The association of serum arginine with the risk of incident cancer remains uncovered at present. We aimed to investigate the prospective relationship of baseline serum arginine concentrations with the risk of incident cancer in hypertensive participants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A nested, case-control study with 1,389 incident cancer cases and 1,389 matched controls was conducted using data from the China H-Type Hypertension Registry Study (CHHRS). Conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between serum arginine and the risk of the overall, digestive system, non-digestive system, and site-specific cancer.

RESULTS

Compared with matched controls, cancer patients had higher levels of arginine (21.41 μg/mL vs. 20.88 μg/mL, p < 0.05). When serum arginine concentrations were assessed as quartiles, compared with participants in the lowest arginine quartile, participants in the highest arginine quartile had a 32% (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.71), and 68% (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.09 to 2.59) increased risk of overall and digestive system cancer, respectively, in the adjusted models. In the site-specific analysis, each standard deviation (SD) increment of serum arginine was independently and positively associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82) in the adjusted analysis.

CONCLUSION

We found that hypertensive individuals with higher serum arginine levels exhibited a higher risk of overall, digestive system, and colorectal cancer.

Modifiable lifestyle factors have a larger contribution to colorectal neoplasms than family history

BACKGROUND

 Screening recommendations for colorectal cancer (CRC) are mainly based on family history rather than lifestyle risk factors. We aimed to assess and compare risk factors for colorectal neoplasm (CRN) and evaluate trends in neoplasm detection rates during the three rounds of screening from 2012 to 2020 in Tianjin, China.

METHODS

This study was based on 89,535 first-recorded colonoscopies in Tianjin CRC screening program, 2012-2020. Of these, 45,380 individuals with complete family history and lifestyle factors were included for population attributable fraction (PAF) estimation.

RESULTS

 The overall detection rate of nonadvanced adenomas, advanced adenomas and CRC was 39.3%, 5.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The PAFs of current smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, higher BMI and family history of CRC, respectively, were 8.9%, 2.6%, 1.9%, 5.8%, and 1.1% for males with nonadvanced CRN; 12.3%, 7.3%, 4.9%, 7.2%, and 0.8% for males with advanced CRN; 3.4%, 0.4%, 2.1%, 7.8%, and 0.7% for females with nonadvanced CRN; and 4.3%, 0.2%, 8.2%, 8.5%, and -0.6% for females with advanced CRN. The PAFs of selected lifestyle factors were 19.9% for males with nonadvanced CRN, 29.0% for males with advanced CRN, 9.7% for females with nonadvanced CRN and 13.8% for females with advanced CRN.

CONCLUSIONS

 Modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and BMI, have a larger contribution to CRN than family history of CRC. Our findings will provide references for developing guidelines of CRC prevention and control in China.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effects of population aging on the mortality burden of related cancers in urban and rural areas of China, 2004-2017: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

China is a developing country with urban-rural disparities and accelerating population aging. Therefore, quantifying the effects of population aging on the cancer mortality burden is urgently needed.

METHODS

Using data from China's death surveillance datasets (2004-2017), we decomposed and quantified the effects of population aging and factor variations on cancer mortality rates in urban and rural China during 2004-2017 through a decomposition method. R ratios were used to assess the extent of the mortality decreases attributable to factor variations offsetting the increases attributable to population aging for 4 aging-related cancers (lung, colorectal, esophageal, and stomach cancer).

RESULTS

Overall, population aging has led to continued increases in cancer mortality rates in China during 2004-2017 (mortality rates attributable to population aging: 8.63/100,000 for urban men, 4.21/100,000 for urban women, 11.95/100,000 for rural men, and 5.66/100,000 for rural women). The 4 cancers displayed 3 patterns. The mortality rates from lung cancer in rural China and from colorectal cancer nationwide increased because of both population aging and factor variations. Population aging was primarily responsible for the growing mortality due to lung cancer in urban areas. However, for esophageal and stomach cancer, the effect of population aging was not dominant, thus resulting in decreases in mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Health resource allocation should prioritize areas or cancers more adversely affected by population aging. The burden of cancer will continue to increase in the future, because of rapid population aging, but can still be offset or even reversed with enhanced cancer control and prevention.

Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2016

Background

National Cancer Center (NCC) of China annually reports the nationwide statistics for cancer incidence and mortality using population-based cancer registry data from all available cancer registries in China.

Methods

There were a total of 487 registries which reported high quality data of cancer incidence and mortality across China in 2016. The nationwide numbers of new cancer cases and deaths were estimated using the pooled cancer registry data, which were stratified by area (urban/rural), sex, age group (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14…85+) and cancer site for incidence and mortality, and then multiplied by corresponding national population. The world Segi's population was applied for the calculation of age-standardized rates.

Results

About 4,064,000 new cancer cases and 2,413,500 new cancer deaths occurred in China in 2016. Cancers of the lung, colon-rectum, stomach, liver and female breast were the top five common cancers, accounting for 57.4% of total cancer new cases. Cancers of the lung, liver, stomach, colon-rectum and esophagus were the five leading causes of cancer deaths, accounting for 69.3% of total cancer deaths. The crude and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) were 293.91 and 186.46 per 100,000 population, respectively. The crude mortality rate was 174.55/100,000 and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 105.19/100,000. The ASIR was higher but the ASMR was lower in urban areas than that in rural areas. In past decades, the ASIR was relatively stable in males, but significantly increased by about 2.3% per year in females for overall cancers combined. In contrast, the ASMR significantly decreased by about 1.2% per year for both sexes during 2000-2016. Notably, the cancer-specific ASIR and ASMR of esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers decreased significantly, whereas both rates for cancers of the colon-rectum, prostate, female breast, cervix, and thyroid increased significantly.

Conclusions

Cancer remains a major public health problem in China, which demands long-term collaborative efforts of a broad community. With the national guideline on cancer prevention and control, tailored cancer prevention and control programs are needed in different regions to help reduce the burden of these highly fatal diseases in China.

Burden of cancer attributable to modifiable factors in Japan in 2015

The This study estimated the cancer burden attributable to modifiable factors in Japan in 2015 using the best available epidemiological evidence and a standard methodology. We selected the following factors for inclusion in the estimates, namely tobacco smoking (active smoking and secondhand smoking), alcohol drinking, excess bodyweight, physical inactivity, infectious agents (Helicobacter pylori, hepatitis C virus, hepatitis B virus, human papilloma virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human T-cell leukemia virus type 1), dietary intake (highly salted food, fruit, vegetables, dietary fiber, red meat, processed meat), exogenous hormone use, never breastfeeding and air pollution, given that these were considered modifiable, in theory at least. We first estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of each cancer attributable to these factors using representative relative risks of Japanese and the prevalence of exposures in Japanese around 2005, in consideration of the 10-year interval between exposure and cancer outcomes. Using nationwide cancer incidence and mortality statistics, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2015. We finally obtained the PAF for site-specific and total cancers attributable to all modifiable risk factors using this formula, with statistical consideration of the effect of overlap between risk factors. The results showed that 35.9% of all cancer incidence (43.4% in men and 25.3% in women) and 41.0% of all cancer mortality (49.7% in men and 26.8% in women) would be considered preventable by avoidance of these exposures. Infections and active smoking followed by alcohol drinking were the greatest contributing factors to cancer in Japan in 2015.

Tetramethylpyrazine: A Review of Its Antitumor Potential and Mechanisms

Cancer remains a major public health threat. The mitigation of the associated morbidity and mortality remains a major research focus. From a molecular biological perspective, cancer is defined as uncontrolled cell division and abnormal cell growth caused by various gene mutations. Therefore, there remains an urgent need to develop safe and effective antitumor drugs. The antitumor effect of plant extracts, which are characterized by relatively low toxicity and adverse effect, has attracted significant attention. For example, increasing attention has been paid to the antitumor effects of tetramethylpyrazine (TMP), the active component of the Chinese medicine Chuanqiong, which can affect tumor cell proliferation, apoptosis, invasion, metastasis, and angiogenesis, as well as reverse chemotherapeutic resistance in neoplasms, thereby triggering antitumor effects. Moreover, TMP can be used in combination with chemotherapeutic agents to enhance their effects and reduce the side effect associated with chemotherapy. Herein, we review the antitumor effects of TMP to provide a theoretical basis and foundation for the further exploration of its underlying antitumor mechanisms and promoting its clinical application.

Microbiome-Friend or Foe of Pancreatic Cancer?

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is one of the deadliest human neoplasms. Despite the development of new surgical and adjuvant therapies, the prognosis remains very poor, with the overall survival rate not exceeding 9%. There is now increasing evidence that the human microbiome, which is involved in many physiological functions, including the regulation of metabolic processes and the modulation of the immune system, is possibly linked to pancreatic oncogenesis. However, the exact mechanisms of action are poorly understood. Our review summarizes the current understanding of how the microbiome affects pancreatic cancer development and progression. We discuss potential pathways of microbe translocation to the pancreas, as well as the mechanism of their action. We describe the role of the microbiome as a potential marker of pancreatic cancer diagnosis, progression, and survival. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of modifying the microbiome to improve treatment effectiveness for this deadly disease.

Cancer death and potential years of life lost in Feicheng City, China: Trends from 2013 to 2018

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of cancer-related mortality on life expectancy in Feicheng City.We extracted the death records and population data of Feicheng City from 2013 to 2018 through the Feicheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The mortality, premature mortality, cause-eliminated life expectancy, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average potential years of life lost (APYLL), annual change percentage (APC), and other indicators of cancer were calculated. The age-standardized rates were calculated using the sixth national census (2010).From 2013 to 2018, the mortality rate of cancer in Feicheng City was 221.55/100,000, and the standardized mortality rate was 166.37/100,000. The standardized mortality rate increased from 2013 to 2014 and then decreased annually. The premature mortality of cancer was 8.98% and showed a downward trend (APC = -2.47%, t = -3.10, P = .04). From 2013 to 2018, the average life expectancy of residents in Feicheng City was 78.63 years. Eliminating the impact of cancer, life expectancy could increase by 3.72 years. The rate of life loss caused by cancer in men was higher than that in women. The total life loss caused by cancer deaths was 126,870.50 person-years, the potential life loss rate was 22.51‰, and the average potential life loss was 13.30 years. The standardized potential years of life lost rate showed a downward trend (APC = -2.96%, t = -3.72, P = .02), and APYLL decreased by 1.98% annually (t = -5.44, P = .01). The top 5 malignant tumors in APYLL were leukemia, breast cancer, brain tumor, liver cancer, and ovarian cancer.Lung cancer, esophageal cancer, female breast cancer, and childhood leukemia have a great impact on the life expectancy of residents in Feicheng City. Effective measures need to be taken to reduce the disease burden of malignant tumors.

Population Attributable Risks of Subtypes of Esophageal and Gastric Cancers in the United States

INTRODUCTION

To help target preventive strategies, we estimated US population attributable risks (PARs) of demographic and potentially modifiable risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA).

METHODS

We prospectively examined the associations for risk factors and these cancers in 490,605 people in the National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort Diet and Health Study cohort from 1995 to 2011. Exposures were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease were extracted for a subset of eligible National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort subjects through linkage to Medicare and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible subjects. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Adjusted population attributable risks were calculated for the US population aged 50-71 years by combining the hazard ratios with the estimated joint distribution of risk factor prevalence from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey.

RESULTS

Smoking remained the most important risk factor for ESCC and was estimated to cause more than 1/3 of EAC and GCA and 1/10 of GNCA. Obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with more than 1/2 of EAC and 1/3 of GCA. Compared with each lowest-risk level category, common risk factors were estimated to be associated with 73.7% of ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1%-85.4%), 70.3% of EAC (95% CI: 64.4%-76.2%), 69.3% of GCA (95% CI: 61.0%-77.7%), and 33.6% of GNCA (95% CI: 21.7%-45.5%).

DISCUSSION

These factors accounted for a large proportion of esophageal and gastric cancers in the United States, highlighting opportunities for education and intervention to reduce the burden of these highly fatal cancers.

International strategy in cancer epidemiology: Japan's involvement in global projects and future role

In recent years, collaboration among researchers in the field of cancer epidemiology has been accelerating in various forms. Here, we review recent trends in international collaborative research activities in the cancer epidemiology field in Japan. These include not only support for other countries with less developed cancer statistics infrastructures, but also large-scale compilations and international comparisons through collaborative studies, as well as integration with analytical epidemiology and clinical research. Formation of international cohort consortia and estimates of cancer and risk factors in each country have contributed to raising the skill levels of cancer epidemiologists as well as to expanding research networks and activities among cancer epidemiologists. Molecular and genome epidemiological studies on cancer have progressed over decades and these continue to increase in size and dimension. Application of evidence from this area in prevention is still underway and needs further effort. Japanese epidemiologists have great potential to assume international leadership roles by taking advantage of the uniqueness, originality and characteristics of Japanese cohorts.

Attributable Causes of Cancer in Vietnam

PURPOSE

Vietnam is undergoing rapid socio-economic transition with an increasing cancer burden. The contribution of modifiable risk factors to cancers in Vietnam has not been studied. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the attributable causes of cancer in Vietnam.

METHODS

We reviewed the data on burden of cancer in Vietnam from 2 cancer registries in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City between 1995 and 2012. Next, we calculated the fractions of cancers occurring in 2018 attributable to established modifiable risk factors whose impact could be quantified. Data on exposure prevalence were obtained for the period from 2000 to 2010 from national sources wherever possible.

RESULTS

Cancer incidence in Vietnam has decreased slightly in both sexes. Cancer related to infectious agents decreased sharply, whereas cancer related to nutrition and metabolism has increased. In 2018, established carcinogens included in the analysis explained 47.0% of cancer burden in Vietnam. Chronic infections accounted for 29.1% of cancers (34.7% in men and 22.1% in women), tobacco smoking for 13.5% (23.9% in men and 0.8% in women), and alcohol drinking for 10.3%. Passive smoking was responsible for 8.8% of cancers in women. Other risk factors, including overweight or obesity, nulliparity, and low vegetable and fruit intake, accounted for < 1% of all cancers each.

CONCLUSION

Cancer incidence is slowly decreasing in Vietnam, and the causes of more than half of cancers remain unexplained. This result underlines the need for further epidemiologic and fundamental research. Our findings confirm the notion that controlling oncogenic infections and decreasing tobacco smoking are the most effective approaches to reduce the burden of cancer in Vietnam, but other risk factors, including alcohol drinking and diet, should not be neglected.

Simulation study on the validity of the average risk approach in estimating population attributable fractions for continuous exposures

BACKGROUND

The population attributable fraction (PAF) is an important metric for estimating disease burden associated with causal risk factors. In an International Agency for Research on Cancer working group report, an approach was introduced to estimate the PAF using the average of a continuous exposure and the incremental relative risk (RR) per unit. This 'average risk' approach has been subsequently applied in several studies conducted worldwide. However, no investigation of the validity of this method has been done.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the validity and the potential magnitude of bias of the average risk approach.

METHODS

We established analytically that the direction of the bias is determined by the shape of the RR function. We then used simulation models based on a variety of risk exposure distributions and a range of RR per unit. We estimated the unbiased PAF from integrating the exposure distribution and RR, and the PAF using the average risk approach. We examined the absolute and relative bias as the direct and relative difference in PAF estimated from the two approaches. We also examined the bias of the average risk approach using real-world data from the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer study.

RESULTS

The average risk approach involves bias, which is underestimation or overestimation with a convex or concave RR function (a risk profile that increases more/less rapidly at higher levels of exposure). The magnitude of the bias is affected by the exposure distribution as well as the value of RR. This approach is approximately valid when the RR per unit is small or the RR function is approximately linear. The absolute and relative bias can both be large when RR is not small and the exposure distribution is skewed.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that caution be taken when using the average risk approach to estimate PAF.

Predictions of mortality related to four major cancers in China, 2020 to 2030

BACKGROUND

Cancer has become a global health problem, and assessments of cancer mortality are important for effective public health policy-making and adequate resource allocation. In this study, we aimed to predict the mortality rates and numbers of deaths related to four common cancers (lung, liver, stomach, and esophagus) in China from 2020 to 2030 and to estimate the corresponding cancer burden caused by population aging and tobacco smoking.

METHODS

Cancer mortality data (2004-2017) were extracted from China's death surveillance datasets, and China's population figures (2020-2030) were obtained from the United Nations population projections. Smoking prevalence data were retrieved from a World Health Organization global report, and relative risks of smoking and cancers were derived from large-scale Asian studies. We predicted the deaths related to the four major cancers and age-standardized mortality rates using joinpoint regression and linear regression models. The tobacco smoking-related burden of these four major cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction.

RESULTS

Unlike lung cancer mortality which was predicted to continue to increase, the age-standardized mortality rates for digestive cancers (liver, stomach, and esophageal cancers) are predicted to decline over the next decade. The number of deaths caused by the four major cancers is predicted to increase from 1,490,304 in 2020 to 1,823,960 in 2030. The age-specific mortality rates of the four major cancers are predicted to increase with age after 40-45 years, peaking in the age groups of 80-84 and ≥85 years. In 2030, the combined number of deaths from the four examined cancers among adults aged ≥65 years is predicted to be 1,167,153, accounting for 64% of all deaths from these cancers. Tobacco smoking is predicted to contribute to nearly 29% of deaths from these cancers, corresponding to 527,577 deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall trend in the combined total mortality from four major cancers is predicted to decline over the next decade; however, the corresponding death toll is expected to surge, in the context of China's population aging and high smoking prevalence. These estimates provide data-driven evidence for China to implement effective cancer control measures in the future.

The functional landscape of Golgi membrane protein 1 (GOLM1) phosphoproteome reveal GOLM1 regulating P53 that promotes malignancy

Golgi membrane protein 1 (GOLM1) was implicated in carcinogenesis of multiple types of cancer. However, Phosphoproteome landscapes of GOLM1 overexpression in lung cancer remain largely unknown. In this study, using data from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and phosphoproteome, we systematically evaluated the feature of GOLM1 and studied its prognostic value in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The proliferation, migration, and invasion capacities in PC9 cell with GOLM1 overexpression were determined using Trans-well system assay. Tumor engrafts was visualized in mice models and confirmed by ex vivo. An increased expression of GOLM1 had shorter overall survival (OS) in patients with NSCLC in TCGA database. GOLM1 in single gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) related to adherent's junction, cell cycle, and pathway in cancer. Overexpression of GOLM1 in GOLM1OE PC9 cells promoted cell proliferation, migration, and invasion. Decreased migration and invasion potential were also observed in knockdown of GOLM1 in GOLM1KD PC9 cells in migration assay. An increased expression of GOLM1 could significantly increase the growth of tumor in xenograft mice models. phosphoproteome analysis showed 239 upregulated and 331 downregulated Phosphorylated proteins in GOLM1OE PC9 cells. Overexpression of GOLM1 in GSEA was significantly related to P53 in MAPK signaling pathway. Overexpression of GOLM1enhanced the phosphorylation of P53 protein at site S315 but inhibited the formation of P53 tetramers. These results indicate that overexpression GOLM1 enhances non-small-cell carcinoma aggressiveness through inhibited the formation of P53 tetramer.

Burden of cancers attributable to modifiable risk factors in Malaysia

Background

This is a systematic assessment of the burden of cancers in Malaysia in 2018 using epidemiologic approach. The purpose of this study was to identify the proportion of cancers in Malaysia that were attributable to the modifiable risk factors of excess weight, alcohol intake, physical inactivity, tobacco smoking and to estimate the number of cancer cases that could be prevented if the exposure to the modifiable risk factor was reduced.

Methods

We estimated the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of the modifiable risk factors to cancers incidences in Malaysia. The two parameters used for the estimation were exposure prevalence from national representative surveys and the relative risk of getting the cancers from worldwide literature review.

Results

Among 38,426 cancer incidences in 2018 from Globocan data, we estimated that 22.2% (95% confidence interval (CI):14.9 to 29.6%) of the cancer incidences included in this study were attributable to the investigated modifiable risk factors. 39.1% (95% CI:27.2 to 49.7%) and 10.5% (95% CI:5.8 to 15.7%) of cancers in male and female respectively, were attributable to the studied modifiable risk factors. The top main cancers attributed by the risk factors were lung cancer (65.1%; 95% CI:56.4 to 72.9%), laryngeal cancer (63.6%; 95% CI:39.9 to 80.5%), and oesophageal cancer (51.5%; 95% CI:39.9 to 62.0%). For each risk factor studied across genders, tobacco smoking contributed the most (14.3%; 95% CI:9.9 to 17.3%), followed by excess weight (7.0%; 95% CI:4.1 to 10.2%), physical inactivity (1.0%; 95% CI:0.4 to 1.7%) and alcohol intake (0.6%; 95% CI:0.2 to 1.0%).

Conclusion

Findings from this study suggests that tobacco smoking and excess weight are the two predominant factors out of the four studied risk factors for cancer cases in Malaysia. Nationwide public health prevention campaigns tailored to these risk factors are recommended. However, the other risk factors such as physical inactivity and alcohol intake shall not be neglected. PAFs are estimated based on the best available data that we have currently. Regular collection of other risk factor exposure prevalence data is vital for future analyses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10412-9.

Lifestyle factors associated with incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in US adults: analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To quantify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases attributable to selected non-genetic risk factors.

DESIGN

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and meta-analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

US adults.

DATA SOURCES

The prevalence of exposure was obtained from NHANES. Weighted analysis was performed to account for the complex sampling design in NHANES. PubMed and Web of Science up to 31 March 2019 were searched to identify epidemiological studies reported the association between non-genetic risk factors and RA in US adults. Relative risk (RR) value and the corresponding CI were pooled by meta-analysis to evaluate the associations between modifiable risk factors and RA. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated based on the prevalence and RR data.

RESULTS

The weighted percentages of former smokers, current smokers and overweight or obese people were 24.84%, 23.93% and 63.97%, and the average alcohol consumption was 51.34 g/week. In the meta-analysis, we found that former smokers (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36) and current smokers (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.68) had higher risks of RA. Overweight and obese individuals had 1.27-fold (95% CI 1.09 to 1.48) increased risk of RA. Each per 50 g/week increment of alcohol consumption was associated with 8% (95% CI 0% to 16%) reduction in the risk of RA. Therefore, PAF value of smoking was 14.00% (95% CI 8.13% to 23.33%). Excess body mass index (BMI) was found to account for 14.73% (95% CI 5.45% to 23.50%) of RA incidence. The fraction of RA risk attributed by low alcohol intake was 8.21% (95% CI 0.31% to 16.39%). Collectively, we found that 32.69% (95% CI 13.41% to 50.96%) of RA cases were attributable to smoking, overweight or obesity and low alcohol drinking.

CONCLUSION

Nearly 33% of RA incidence was attributed to smoking, excess BMI and low alcohol drinking in USA. Our findings could provide a basis for developing guidelines of RA prevention and control in USA.

Province-specific alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and years of potential life lost in China

OBJECTIVE

Cancer is a major cause of death in China. As alcohol drinking, a risk factor of cancer, is common in China, we aimed to estimate the alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) across all provinces in China.

METHODS

We estimated the proportion of cancer deaths and YPLL attributable to alcohol consumption at the province level. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated based on: 1) prevalence of alcohol consumption, obtained from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey 2002; 2) dose-response relative risks (RRs) of alcohol consumption and site-specific cancer, extracted from published meta-analyses; 3) cancer mortality data, originated from the National Program of Cancer Registry 2013.

RESULTS

We estimated that 98,306 cancer deaths were attributable to alcohol consumption and accounted for 4.56 % of the total cancer deaths in China in 2013. Of these deaths, a total of 919,741.57 person-years premature loss of life was caused. Both overall PAF and average YPLL per 100,000 individuals were much higher in men than that in women (7.01 % vs. 0.33 % and 130.55 vs. 4.45, respectively). At the province level, overall PAF ranged from 2.14 % (95 % CI: 1.40 %-2.87 %) in Shanghai to 6.56 % (95 % CI: 4.06 %-9.05 %) in Anhui and the average YPLL per 100,000 individuals ranged from 10.97 in Tibet to 106.52 in Shandong.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer burden attributable to alcohol consumption varied across provinces in China. Province-level approaches are warranted to decrease alcohol consumption and reduce the alcohol-related cancer burden.

Province-specific smoking-attributable cancer mortality in China 2013

INTRODUCTION

Province-specific initiatives are at the forefront of tobacco control but limited studies have provided province-specific assessment of smoking-attributable cancer burden in China.

METHODS

We estimated the fraction of total and site-specific cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking in 31 provinces in mainland China. The population attributable fractions (PAFs) for cancer deaths due to smoking were calculated by Levin's formula using province-specific smoking prevalence data around 1998 (assuming a 15-year latency time) and relative risks from cohort studies and meta-analyses. The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PAFs were calculated by a Delta method. Cancer deaths were abstracted from cancer registry data of the 31 provinces in mainland China in 2013.

RESULTS

Overall, smoking contributed to a total of 421566 cancer deaths in mainland China in 2013 (19.46% of all cancer deaths), with 400701 of these deaths occurring in men (29.34%) and 20865 (2.61%) in women. The population attributable fractions ranged from 15.56% (95% CI: 9.12-21.82%) in Tibet to 35.09% (95% CI: 25.68-45.83%) in Guizhou among men, and from 0.28% (95% CI: 0.00-0.64%) in Hainan to 10.44% (95% CI: 4.86-16.32%) in Jilin among women. Cancers of lung and liver were the two main smoking-attributable cancers for both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco smoking was responsible for nearly 20% of all cancer deaths in mainland China, but the proportion of cancer deaths attributable to smoking varied substantially across provinces. More effective programs and innovative new strategies for local tobacco control are warranted to reduce the future burden of smoking-related cancers in all provinces of mainland China.

Proportion of upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders attributable to personal and occupational factors: results from the French Pays de la Loire study

BACKGROUND

Upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSD) are one of the most common and costly occupational health problems. We aimed to assess the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of personal and occupational risk factors associated with incident UEMSD in a working population.

METHODS

From 2002 to 2005, a random sample of 3710 workers from the Pays de la Loire region in France, aged 20-59 were included by occupational physicians (OPs). Between 2007 and 2010, 1611 workers were re-examined by their OPs. Subjects free from UEMSD at baseline were included in this study (1275 workers, mean age: 38.2 years). Cox regression models with equal follow-up time and robust variance estimates were used to estimate age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Based on multivariable models, PAF associated with each factor included in the models was estimated.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 143 (11%) cases of UEMSD were diagnosed. PAFs for factors associated with the incident UEMSD risk were 30% (7 to 51) for high physical exertion (RPE Borg scale ≥12), 12% (- 0.2 to 24) for low social support, 7% (- 3 to 17) for working with arms above shoulder level (≥2 h/day), 20% (12 to 28) for age group ≥45, 13% (3 to 22) for the age group 35-44, and 12% (0.3 to 24) for female gender.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that an important fraction of UEMSD can be attributed to occupational exposures after the contributions of personal and other work-related factors are considered. In terms of public health, our findings are in agreement with the ergonomic literature postulating that a high proportion of UEMSD are preventable through modifying workplace risk factors. Such information is useful to help public health practitioners and policy makers implement programs of prevention of UEMSD in the working population.

The trends of mortality and years of life lost of cancers in urban and rural areas in China, 1990-2017

Background

With the rapid development of the socioeconomic status, the mortality of several cancers has been changed in China during the past 30 years. We aimed to estimate the trends of mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) of various cancers in urban and rural areas of China from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

The mortality data were collected from Chinese yearbooks and the age structure of population from the Chinese sixth population census were used as reference to calculate age‐standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and YLLs rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was implemented to calculate the annual percent change (APC) of mortality rates and YLL rates for cancers. YLLs owing to premature death were calculated as age‐specific cancer deaths multiplied by the reference life expectancy at birth of 80 years for male and 82.5 years for female.

Results

The ASMRs of all cancers showed significant decreasing trends for urban residents from 1990 to 2017, such downward trend without significance was also observed among rural residents. Interestingly, ASMRs of lung cancer and breast cancer have raised continuously in rural areas since 1990. The age‐standardized YYL rates for urban and rural residents decreased with 1.02% and 0.85% per year, respectively. YLLs in rural areas were higher than those in urban areas, whereas YLLs of urban outstripped those of rural finally with the increasing in YLLs of urban areas (216.71% for men and 207.87% for women).

Conclusion

The ASMRs and YLL rates of all cancers have declined in urban and rural areas from 1990 to 2017. YLLs increased in urban areas and remained higher level in rural areas after 2014 year. Preventive measures should be strengthened to against cancer, especially for lung cancer.

Estimates of the incidence of infection-related cancers in Italy and Italian regions in 2018

Introduction

Chronic infections and infestations represent one of the leading causes of cancer. Eleven agents have been categorized by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Group 1, 3 in Group 2A and 4 in Group 2B. We previously estimated that the incidence of cancers associated with infectious agents accounted for the 8.5% of new cancer cases diagnosed in Italy in 2014.

Methods

In the present study we evaluated the incidence of cancer in Italy and in the 20 Italian regions in 2018, based on the data of Cancer Registries, and calculated the fraction attributable to infectious agents.

Results

Cancers of infectious origin contributed to the overall burden of cancer in Italy with more than 27,000 yearly cases, the 92% of which was attributable to Helicobacter pylori, human papillomaviruses, and hepatitis B and C viruses. With the exception of papillomavirus-related cancers, the incidence of cancers of infectious origin was higher in males (16,000 cases) than in females (11,000 cases). There were regional and geographical variations of cancers depending on the type of cancer and on the gender. Nevertheless, the overall figures were rather similar, the infection-related cancers accounting for the 7.2, 7.6, and 7.1% of all cancers in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy, respectively.

Conclusions

The estimate of the incidence of cancers attributable to infectious agents in Italy in 2018 (7.3% of all cancer cases) is approximately half of the worldwide burden, which has been estimated by IARC to be the 15.4% of all cancer cases in 2012.

Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of Four Major Chronic Non-communicable Diseases - China, 1990-2017

What is already known about this topic?

The burden from chronic non-communicable diseases has become an important public health concern in China.

What is added by this report?

The most recent estimates on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes in China during 1990-2017 reveal that the accumulated prevalences of the four major NCDs are increasing, but the age-standardized mortality rates for CVD, cancer, and CRD have been on a decline during the period of 1990-2017.

What are the implications for public health practice?

More effective intervention strategies should be developed to deal with the continuously increasing burden caused by NCDs.

Toward the World Code Against Cancer

Overwhelmed by an abundance of often confusing, ambiguous, or apparently contradictory messages on disease prevention in today’s multiple media streams, the general public would surely value authoritative, clear, and evidence-based instructions on how to actively contribute to the reduction of their cancer risk. The European Code Against Cancer is a set of 12 recommendations for individuals on how to reduce cancer risk. The Code carries the authority and reliability of expert scientists working under the coordination of the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the cancer research agency of the WHO. The Code’s messages are aimed at individuals and have been enthusiastically promoted by European cancer associations. The experience of developing and promoting the European Code has generated interest in developing analogous recommendations for other regions of the world. Under the overall umbrella of a World Code Against Cancer using the same International Agency for Research on Cancer methodology, regional Codes could be developed, focused on regions sufficiently large and distinct to merit development of versions adapted to regional differences in risk factors and cancer patterns. Consideration of such an adapted model illustrates why a simple translation of the European Code would not be sufficient to promote cancer prevention globally.

The current and future burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada: Summary of results

Nearly one in two Canadians are expected to be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime. However, there are opportunities to reduce the impact of modifiable cancer risk factors through well-informed interventions and policies. Since no comprehensive Canadian estimates have been available previously, we estimated the proportion of cancer diagnosed in 2015 and the future burden in 2042 attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors, and infections. Population-based historical estimates of exposure prevalence and their associated risks for each exposure-cancer site pair were obtained to estimate population attributable risks, assuming the exposures were distributed independently and that the risk estimates were multiplicative. We estimated that between 33 and 37% (up to 70,000 cases) of incident cancer cases among adults aged 30 years and over in 2015 were attributable to preventable risk factors. Similar proportions of cancer cases in males (34%) and females (33%) were attributable to these risk factors. Tobacco smoking and a lack of physical activity were associated with the highest proportions of cancer cases. Cancers with the highest number of preventable cases were lung (20,100), colorectal (9800) and female breast (5300) cancer. If current trends in the prevalence of preventable risk factors continue into the future, we project that by 2042 approximately 102,000 incident cancer cases are expected to be attributable to these risk factors per year, which would account for roughly one-third of all incident cancers. Through various risk reduction interventions, policies and public health campaigns, an estimated 10,600 to 39,700 cancer cases per year could be prevented by 2042.

Head and neck cancer prevention: from primary prevention to impact of clinicians on reducing burden

Survival from head and neck cancers (HNCs) of the lip, oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx has increased by 10% over the past few decades. Little over half of patients who develop HNCs will survive beyond 5 years. Survival is lower for individuals in many countries where traditional risk factors such as tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and betel quid chewing are highly prevalent but tertiary health care center access is limited or unavailable. Early diagnosis of HNC is the most important prognostic factor for each tumor site. Molecular-based research on HNC tumors holds promise for early stage detection, screening, vaccination, disease follow-up, and progression. Future investments for HNC control must consider both effectiveness and sustainability for both high- and low-resource countries alike, with priority toward risk factor prevention and earlier diagnosis.

Disparities by province, age, and sex in site-specific cancer burden attributable to 23 potentially modifiable risk factors in China: a comparative risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Understanding disparities in the burden of cancer attributable to different risk factors is crucial to inform and improve cancer prevention and control. In this report, we estimate the site-specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 23 potentially modifiable risk factors across all provinces in China.

METHODS

In this comparative risk assessment study, we used 2014 cancer mortality data for adults from 978 county-level surveillance points in 31 provinces of mainland China. Risk-factor prevalence estimates were obtained from representative surveys. We used summary relative risks obtained from several recent large-scale pooled analyses or high-quality meta-analyses of studies in China. We calculated PAFs using multiple formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data stratified by age, sex and province and then combined to create summary PAFs by sex, cancer site, and risk factors.

FINDINGS

About 1 036 004 cancer deaths (45·2% of all cancer deaths [95% CI 44·0-46·4]) in China in 2014 in adults aged 20 years or older were attributable to 23 evaluated risk factors. The PAF was higher in men (51·2% [95% CI 50·0-52·4]) than in women (34·9% [33·6-36·2]), with the leading risk factors being active smoking in men and low fruit intake in women. By province, the PAF in both sexes combined ranged from 35·2% in Shanghai to 52·9% in Heilongjiang, while the PAF varied from 40·9% in Shanghai to 56·4% in Guangdong among men and from 26·9% in Shanghai to 48·0% in Heilongjiang among women. The highest PAF among men was smoking in all 31 provinces, whereas among women it varied among low fruit intake (14 provinces), hepatitis B virus infection (seven provinces), smoking (six provinces), excess bodyweight (three provinces), and human papilloma virus infection (one province).

INTERPRETATION

The PAFs of cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors vary substantially across provinces in China. Regional adoption of effective primary cancer prevention strategies has a vast potential to reduce the burden of cancer and disparities in China. Smoking, poor diet, and infection warrant particular policy attention as they contributed a large proportion to the total cancer burden.

FUNDING

National Science and Technology Basic Research Special Foundation of China.

A study of "cancer villages" in Jiangsu Province of China

China's economic boom has created many environmental and health challenges, including so-called cancer villages. This study, the first to use the lens of "cancer villages" at provincial level, examines the correlation between changes in Jiangsu cancer villages and economic and environmental quality indicators identified as being relevant, and hence to highlight environmental issues that should be mitigated to protect public health. Since 2001, 25 cancer villages have been reported in Jiangsu. The distribution pattern of these villages is of a cluster whose mean centre had moved from Suzhou city in 2001 to Taizhou in 2006 and 2011. By applying the buffer analysis tool of ArcGIS10.2.2 using 3-km and 5-km radius buffer, to examine the relationship between these cancer villages and the surrounding rivers, it was revealed that 76% of the villages fall within the 3-km buffer zone, and 88% are within the 5-km buffer zone. A fairly strong correlation between the cancer villages and annual GDP, as well as pollutant discharge, was found, with correlation coefficients of 0.94 for Jiangsu, 0.89 for Northern Jiangsu, 0.93 for Central Jiangsu, 0.83 for Southern Jiangsu and 0.64 for city level. The change of newly added cancer villages is significantly influenced by the discharge of sewage water (raising COD) and SO₂, and the peak of newly added cancer villages, as well as discharge of COD and SO₂ all occurred in 2005. For four cities, the total sewage water discharge and SO₂ emissions are consistent with the order of the distribution density of the villages. The phenomenon of cancer villages in China will gradually be resolved as the government takes effective measures to tackle environmental issues coupled with people's increasing environmental and health awareness.

Human papillomavirus infection and colorectal cancer in the Chinese population: a meta-analysis

AIM

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection has been reported in colorectal cancer in many studies. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between HPV infection and colorectal cancer/adenomas in the Chinese population.

METHOD

Relevant studies up to January 2018 were searched in PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Wanfang database. We used a random effects model to determine the prevalence of HPV and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The I² statistic and P-value from the Cochrane Q-test were used to describe the heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Ten case-control studies involving 766 colorectal cancer patients and 470 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Among the colorectal cancer patients, the pooled prevalence was 0.45 (95% CI 0.36-0.53). The pooled estimate for OR was 10.78 (95% CI 4.22, 27.53). Among the 193 patients with colorectal adenoma, the pooled prevalence and OR were 0.31 (95% CI 0.24-0.37) and 2.03 (95% CI 0.79, 5.26), respectively. The prevalence of HPV 16 and HPV 18 among HPV-positive cancers ranged from 57.9% to 100% and 0% to 39.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that HPV infection, especially HPV 16 and HPV 18, is associated with colorectal cancer in the Chinese population.

All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984⁻2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984⁻2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55⁻59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of "rise first and then fall," and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904⁻1908 to 1989⁻1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

Cancer deaths and cases attributable to lifestyle factors and infections in China, 2013

Background

The burden of cancer in China is high, and it is expected to further increase. Information on cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is essential in planning preventive measures against cancer. We estimated the number and proportion of cancer deaths and cases attributable to ever-smoking, second-hand smoking, alcohol drinking, low fruit/vegetable intake, excess body weight, physical inactivity, and infections in China, using contemporary data from nationally representative surveys and cancer registries.

Methods

The number of cancer deaths and cases in 2013 were obtained from the National Central Cancer Registry of China and data on most exposures were obtained from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey 2002 or 2006 and Global Adult Tobacco Smoking 2010. We used a bootstrap simulation method to calculate the number and proportion of cancer deaths and cases attributable to risk factors and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), allowing for uncertainty in data.

Results

Approximately 718 000 (95% CI 702 100-732 200) cancer deaths in men and 283 100 (278 800-288 800) cancer deaths in women were attributable to the studied risk factors, accounting for 52% of all cancer deaths in men and 35% in women. The numbers for incident cancer cases were 952 500 (95% CI 934 200-971 400) in men and 442 700 (437 200-447 900) in women, accounting for 47% of all incident cases in men and 28% in women. The greatest proportions of cancer deaths attributable to risk factors were for smoking (26%), HBV infection (12%), and low fruit/vegetable intake (7%) in men and HBV infection (7%), low fruit/vegetable intake (6%), and second-hand smoking (5%) in women.

Conclusions

Effective public health interventions to eliminate or reduce exposure from these risk factors, notably tobacco control and vaccinations against carcinogenic infections, can have considerable impact on reducing the cancer burden in China.