Genetic analysis and characterization of wild poliovirus type 1 during sustained transmission in a population with >95% vaccine coverage, Israel 2013

Immunity to enteric viruses

Pathogenic enteric viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly among children in developing countries. The host response to enteric viruses occurs primarily within the mucosa, where the intestinal immune system must balance protection against pathogens with tissue protection and tolerance to harmless commensal bacteria and food. Here, we summarize current knowledge in natural immunity to enteric viruses, highlighting specialized features of the intestinal immune system. We further discuss how knowledge of intestinal anti-viral mechanisms can be translated into vaccine development with particular focus on immunization in the oral route. Research reveals that the intestine is a complex interface between enteric viruses and the host where environmental factors influence susceptibility and immunity to infection, while viral infections can have lasting implications for host health. A deeper mechanistic understanding of enteric anti-viral immunity with this broader context can ultimately lead to better vaccines for existing and emerging viruses.

Polio eradication at the crossroads

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative, launched in 1988 with anticipated completion by 2000, has yet to reach its ultimate goal. The recent surge of polio cases urgently calls for a reassessment of the programme's current strategy and a new design for the way forward. We propose that the sustainable protection of the world population against paralytic polio cannot be achieved simply by stopping the circulation of poliovirus but must also include maintaining high rates of population immunity indefinitely, which can be created and maintained by implementing global immunisation programmes with improved poliovirus vaccines that create comprehensive immunity without spawning new virulent viruses. The proposed new strategic goal of eradicating the disease rather than the virus would lead to a sustainable eradication of poliomyelitis while simultaneously promoting immunisation against other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Review of Methods Suitable for Environmental Surveillance of Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi

Typhoid fever is an enteric disease caused by the pathogens Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi. Clinical surveillance networks are lacking in many affected areas, thus presenting a need to understand transmission and population prevalence. Environmental surveillance (ES) has been suggested as a potentially effective method in the absence of (or in supplement to) clinical surveillance. This review summarizes methods identified in the literature for sampling and detection of typhoidal Salmonella from environmental samples including drinking water, wastewater, irrigation water, and surface waters. Methods described use a trap or grab sampling approach combined with various selective culture and molecular methods. The level to which the performance of identified methods is characterized for ES in the literature is variable, thus arguing for the optimization and standardization of ES techniques.

COVID-19 Crisis Creates Opportunity towards Global Monitoring & Surveillance

The spectrum of emerging new diseases as well as re-emerging old diseases is broadening as infectious agents evolve, adapt, and spread at enormous speeds in response to changing ecosystems. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a recent phenomenon and may take a while to understand its transmission routes from less traveled territories, ranging from fomite exposure routes to wastewater transmission. The critical challenge is how to negotiate with such catastrophic pandemics in high-income countries (HICs ~20% of the global population) and low-and middle-income countries (LMICs ~ 80% of the global population) with a total global population size of approximately eight billion, where practical mass testing and tracing is only a remote possibility, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Keeping in mind the population distribution disparities of high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs and urbanisation trends over recent years, traditional wastewater-based surveillance such as that used to combat polio may help in addressing this challenge. The COVID-19 era differs from any previous pandemics or global health challenges in the sense that there is a great deal of curiosity within the global community to find out everything about this virus, ranging from diagnostics, potential vaccines/therapeutics, and possible routes of transmission. In this regard, the fact that the gut is the common niche for both poliovirus and SARS-CoV-2, and due to the shedding of the virus through faecal material into sewerage systems, the need for long-term wastewater surveillance and developing early warning systems for better preparedness at local and global levels is increasingly apparent. This paper aims to provide an insight into the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, how it can be managed, and what measures are required to deal with a current global international public health concern. Additionally, it shed light on the importance of using wastewater surveillance strategy as an early warning practical tool suitable for massive passive screening, as well as the urgent need for microfluidic technology as a rapid and cost-effective approach tracking SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater.

Deconvolving mutational patterns of poliovirus outbreaks reveals its intrinsic fitness landscape

Vaccination has essentially eradicated poliovirus. Yet, its mutation rate is higher than that of viruses like HIV, for which no effective vaccine exists. To investigate this, we infer a fitness model for the poliovirus viral protein 1 (vp1), which successfully predicts in vitro fitness measurements. This is achieved by first developing a probabilistic model for the prevalence of vp1 sequences that enables us to isolate and remove data that are subject to strong vaccine-derived biases. The intrinsic fitness constraints derived for vp1, a capsid protein subject to antibody responses, are compared with those of analogous HIV proteins. We find that vp1 evolution is subject to tighter constraints, limiting its ability to evade vaccine-induced immune responses. Our analysis also indicates that circulating poliovirus strains in unimmunized populations serve as a reservoir that can seed outbreaks in spatio-temporally localized sub-optimally immunized populations.

Poliovirus has a higher mutation rate than HIV, yet has been almost eradicated by vaccination while an effective vaccine against HIV does not exist. Here, the authors develop a fitness model for poliovirus viral protein 1 to show that it is subject to stringent evolutionary constraints that limit its ability to avoid vaccine-induced immune responses.

Intestinal Immunity to Poliovirus Following Sequential Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine/Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine and Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine-only Immunization Schedules: Analysis of an Open-label, Randomized, Controlled Trial in Chilean Infants

Background

Identifying polio vaccine regimens that can elicit robust intestinal mucosal immunity and interrupt viral transmission is a key priority of the polio endgame.

Methods

In a 2013 Chilean clinical trial (NCT01841671) of trivalent inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) and bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV; targeting types 1 and 3), infants were randomized to receive IPV-bOPV-bOPV, IPV-IPV-bOPV, or IPV-IPV-IPV at 8, 16, and 24 weeks of age and challenged with monovalent oral polio vaccine type 2 (mOPV2) at 28 weeks. Using fecal samples collected from 152 participants, we investigated the extent to which IPV-bOPV and IPV-only immunization schedules induced intestinal neutralizing activity and immunoglobulin A against polio types 1 and 2.

Results

Overall, 37% of infants in the IPV-bOPV groups and 26% in the IPV-only arm had detectable type 2-specific stool neutralization after the primary vaccine series. In contrast, 1 challenge dose of mOPV2 induced brisk intestinal immune responses in all vaccine groups, and significant rises in type 2-specific stool neutralization titers (P < .0001) and immunoglobulin A concentrations (P < 0.0001) were measured 2 weeks after the challenge. In subsidiary analyses, duration of breastfeeding also appeared to be associated with the magnitude of polio-specific mucosal immune parameters measured in infant fecal samples.

Conclusions

Taken together, these results underscore the concept that mucosal and systemic immune responses to polio are separate in their induction, functionality, and potential impacts on transmission and, specifically, provide evidence that primary vaccine regimens lacking homologous live vaccine components are likely to induce only modest, type-specific intestinal immunity.

Intestinal antibody responses to a live oral poliovirus vaccine challenge among adults previously immunized with inactivated polio vaccine in Sweden

Background

Our understanding of the acquisition of intestinal mucosal immunity and the control of poliovirus replication and transmission in later life is still emerging.

Methods

As part of a 2011 randomised, blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial of the experimental antiviral agent pocapavir (EudraCT 2011-004804-38), Swedish adults, aged 18-50 years, who had previously received four doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in childhood were challenged with a single dose of monovalent oral polio vaccine type 1 (mOPV1). Using faecal samples collected before and serially, over the course of 45 days, after mOPV1 challenge from a subset of placebo-arm participants who did not receive pocapavir (N=12), we investigated the kinetics of the intestinal antibody response to challenge virus by measuring poliovirus type 1-specific neutralising activity and IgA concentrations.

Results

In faecal samples collected prior to mOPV1 challenge, we found no evidence of pre-existing intestinal neutralising antibodies to any of the three poliovirus serotypes. Despite persistent high-titered vaccine virus shedding and rising serum neutralisation responses after mOPV1 challenge, intestinal poliovirus type 1-specific neutralisation remained low with a titer of ≤18.4 across all time points and individuals. Poliovirus types 1-specific, 2-specific and 3-specific IgA remained below the limit of detection for all specimens collected postchallenge.

Interpretation

In contrast to recent studies demonstrating brisk intestinal antibody responses to oral polio vaccine challenge in young children previously vaccinated with IPV, this investigation finds that adults previously vaccinated with IPV have only modest intestinal poliovirus type 1-specific neutralisation and no IgA responses that are measurable in stool samples following documented mOPV1 infection.

Isolation of Vaccine-Like Poliovirus Strains in Sewage Samples From the United Kingdom

Background

Environmental surveillance (ES) is a sensitive method for detecting human enterovirus (HEV) circulation, and it is used worldwide to support global polio eradication. We describe a novel ES approach using next-generation sequencing (NGS) to identify HEVs in sewage samples collected in London, United Kingdom, from June 2016 to May 2017.

Methods

Two different methods were used to process raw sewage specimens: a 2-phase aqueous separation system and size exclusion by filtration and centrifugation. HEVs were isolated using cell cultures and analyzed using NGS.

Results

Type 1 and 3 vaccine-like poliovirus (PV) strains were detected in samples collected from September 2016 through January 2017. NGS analysis allowed us to rapidly obtain whole-genome sequences of PV and non-PV HEV strains. As many as 6 virus strains from different HEV serotypes were identified in a single cell culture flask. PV isolates contained only a small number of mutations from vaccine strains commonly seen in early isolates from vaccinees.

Conclusions

Our ES setup has high sensitivity for polio and non-PV HEV detection, generating nearly whole-genome sequence information. Such ES systems provide critical information to assist the polio eradication endgame and contribute to the improvement of our understanding of HEV circulation patterns in humans.

A Review of the Most Commonly Used Methods for Sample Collection in Environmental Surveillance of Poliovirus

We performed a review of the environmental surveillance methods commonly used to collect and concentrate poliovirus (PV) from water samples. We compared the sampling approaches (trap vs grab), the process methods (precipitation vs filtration), and the various tools and chemical reagents used to separate PV from other viruses and pathogens in water samples (microporous glass, pads, polyethylene glycol [PEG]/dextran, PEG/sodium chloride, NanoCeram/ViroCap, and ester membranes). The advantages and disadvantages of each method are considered, and the geographical areas where they are currently used are discussed. Several methods have demonstrated the ability to concentrate and recover PVs from environmental samples. The details of the particular sampling conditions and locations should be considered carefully in method selection.

Seroprevalence of antibodies against the three serotypes of poliovirus and IPV vaccine response in adult solid organ transplant candidates

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence of protective antibody titers to polioviruses in adults candidates for solid organ transplant (SOT), and to assess the immunogenic response to inactivated polio vaccine in this population.

METHODS

The study included SOT candidates referred to Immunization Reference Centre of Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases from March 2013 to January 2016. It was conducted in 2 phases. The first one, a cross-sectional seroprevalence study, followed by an uncontrolled analysis of vaccine response among patients without protective antibody titers at baseline. Antibody titers to poliomyelitis were determined by microneutralization assay.

RESULTS

Among 206 SOT candidates included, 156 (76%) had protective antibody titers to all poliovirus serotypes (95% CI: 70-81%). Proven history of oral vaccination in childhood was not associated with higher seroprevalence of protective antibody. In 97% of individuals without protective antibody titers at baseline, there was adequate vaccine response with one dose of inactivated polio vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

A relevant proportion of adult candidates for SOT does not have protective titers of antibodies to one or more poliovirus serotype. One dose of inactivated vaccine elicited protective antibody titers in 97% of these subjects and should be routinely prescribed prior to SOT.

Insights from a Systematic Search for Information on Designs, Costs, and Effectiveness of Poliovirus Environmental Surveillance Systems

Poliovirus surveillance plays a critical role in achieving and certifying eradication and will play a key role in the polio endgame. Environmental surveillance can provide an opportunity to detect circulating polioviruses prior to the observation of any acute flaccid paralysis cases. We completed a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on environmental surveillance for polio including the search terms "environmental surveillance" or "sewage," and "polio," "poliovirus," or "poliomyelitis," and compared characteristics of the resulting studies. The review included 146 studies representing 101 environmental surveillance activities from 48 countries published between 1975 and 2016. Studies reported taking samples from sewage treatment facilities, surface waters, and various other environmental sources, although they generally did not present sufficient details to thoroughly evaluate the sewage systems and catchment areas. When reported, catchment areas varied from 50 to over 7.3 million people (median of 500,000 for the 25% of activities that reported catchment areas, notably with 60% of the studies not reporting this information and 16% reporting insufficient information to estimate the catchment area population size). While numerous studies reported the ability of environmental surveillance to detect polioviruses in the absence of clinical cases, the review revealed very limited information about the costs and limited information to support quantitative population effectiveness of conducting environmental surveillance. This review motivates future studies to better characterize poliovirus environmental surveillance systems and the potential value of information that they may provide in the polio endgame.

Dynamics affecting the risk of silent circulation when oral polio vaccination is stopped

•

Silent circulation (SC) of wild polio viruses (WPV) when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped, could threaten eradication.

•

We analyzed a model designed to develop theory about mechanisms and factors that lead to SC and how SC risks can be assessed using surveillance data.

•

Prolonged low-level SC emerges as a threshold phenomenon through a mechanism related to balancing contributions of different populations to the effective reproduction number.

•

Factors that promote this mechanism are many years of inadequate vaccination efforts, ongoing waning of immunity against transmission years after last OPV or WPV infection, low transmissibility of OPV, and high transmission conditions.

•

Analyzing acute flaccid paralysis surveillance or environmental surveillance data by themselves cannot assess the risk that an SC threshold has been passed, but new methods to analyze them jointly could do so.

Waning immunity could allow transmission of polioviruses without causing poliomyelitis by promoting silent circulation (SC). Undetected SC when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped could cause difficult to control epidemics. Little is known about waning. To develop theory about what generates SC, we modeled a range of waning patterns. We varied both OPV and wild polio virus (WPV) transmissibility, the time from beginning vaccination to reaching low polio levels, and the infection to paralysis ratio (IPR). There was longer SC when waning continued over time rather than stopping after a few years, when WPV transmissibility was higher or OPV transmissibility was lower, and when the IPR was higher. These interacted in a way that makes recent emergence of prolonged SC a possibility. As the time to reach low infection levels increased, vaccine rates needed to eliminate polio increased and a threshold was passed where prolonged low-level SC emerged. These phenomena were caused by increased contributions to the force of infection from reinfections. The resulting SC occurs at low levels that would be difficult to detect using environmental surveillance. For all waning patterns, modest levels of vaccination of adults shortened SC. Previous modeling studies may have missed these phenomena because (1) they used models with no or very short duration waning and (2) they fit models to paralytic polio case counts. Our analyses show that polio case counts cannot predict SC because nearly identical polio case count patterns can be generated by a range of waning patterns that generate different patterns of SC. We conclude that the possibility of prolonged SC is real but unquantified, that vaccinating modest fractions of adults could reduce SC risk, and that joint analysis of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance data can help assess SC risks and ensure low risks before stopping OPV.

Public health response to the silent reintroduction of wild poliovirus to Israel, 2013-2014

During 2013/14, Israel witnessed the silent reintroduction and sustained transmission of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) detected through routine environmental surveillance performed on sewage samples. The public health response to silent poliovirus transmission in a population with high inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) coverage poses an emerging challenge towards the 'End Game' of global poliovirus eradication. This paper reviews the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication aspects of this poliovirus incident. Special emphasis is placed on the use of scientific data generated in the risk assessment phase to inform the public health response. Reintroducing a live vaccine in supplemental immunization activities in response to transmission of WPV or vaccine-derived poliovirus should be considered close to the 'End Game' of polio eradication, especially if targeting the population at risk is feasible. Such circumstances require a comprehensive contingency plan that will support the generation of important public health evidence at the risk assessment stage, thereby allowing to tailor the risk management approaches and underpin appropriate risk communication.

Vaccine-induced mucosal immunity to poliovirus: analysis of cohorts from an open-label, randomised controlled trial in Latin American infants

Background

Identification of mechanisms that limit poliovirus replication is crucial for informing decisions aimed at global polio eradication. Studies of mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus (OPV) or inactivated poliovirus (IPV) vaccines and mixed schedules thereof will determine the effectiveness of different vaccine strategies to block virus shedding. We used samples from a clinical trial of different vaccination schedules to measure intestinal immunity as judged by neutralisation of virus and virus-specific IgA in stools.

Methods

In the FIDEC trial, Latin American infants were randomly assigned to nine groups to assess the efficacy of two schedules of bivalent OPV (bOPV) and IPV and challenge with monovalent type 2 OPV, and stools samples were collected. We selected three groups of particular interest—the bOPV control group (serotypes 1 and 3 at 6, 10, and 14 weeks), the trivalent attenuated OPV (tOPV) control group (tOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks), and the bOPV–IPV group (bOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks plus IPV at 14 weeks). Neutralising activity and poliovirus type-specific IgA were measured in stool after a monovalent OPV type 2 challenge at 18 weeks of age. Mucosal immunity was measured by in-vitro neutralisation of a type 2 polio pseudovirus (PV2). Neutralisation titres and total and poliovirus-type-specific IgG and IgA concentrations in stools were assessed in samples collected before challenge and 2 weeks after challenge from all participants.

Findings

210 infants from Guatemala and Dominican Republic were included in this analysis. Of 38 infants tested for mucosal antibody in the tOPV group, two were shedding virus 1 week after challenge, compared with 59 of 85 infants receiving bOPV (p<0·0001) and 53 of 87 infants receiving bOPV–IPV (p<0·0001). Mucosal type 2 neutralisation and type-specific IgA were noted primarily in response to tOPV. An inverse correlation was noted between virus shedding and both serum type 2 neutralisation at challenge (p<0·0001) and mucosal type 2 neutralisation at challenge (p<0·0001).

Interpretation

Mucosal type-2-specific antibodies can be measured in stool and develop in response to receipt of OPV type 2 either in the primary vaccine series or at challenge. These mucosal antibodies influence the amount of virus that is shed in an established infection.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Eradication of measles: remaining challenges

Measles virus (MeV) is an aerosol-borne and one of the most contagious pathogenic viruses known. Almost every MeV infection becomes clinically manifest and can lead to serious and even fatal complications, especially under conditions of malnutrition in developing countries, where still 115,000 to 160,000 patients die from measles every year. There is no specific antiviral treatment. In addition, MeV infections cause long-lasting memory B and T cell impairment, predisposing people susceptible to opportunistic infections for years. A rare, but fatal long-term consequence of measles is subacute sclerosing panencephalitis. Fifteen years ago (2001), WHO has launched a programme to eliminate measles by a worldwide vaccination strategy. This is promising, because MeV is a human-specific morbillivirus (i.e. without relevant animal reservoir), safe and potent vaccine viruses are sufficiently produced since decades for common application, and millions of vaccine doses have been used globally without any indications of safety and efficacy issues. Though the prevalence of wild-type MeV infection has decreased by >90 % in Europe, measles is still not eliminated and has even re-emerged with recurrent outbreaks in developed countries, in which effective vaccination programmes had been installed for decades. Here, we discuss the crucial factors for a worldwide elimination of MeV: (1) efficacy of current vaccines, (2) the extremely high contagiosity of MeV demanding a >95 % vaccination rate based on two doses to avoid primary vaccine failure as well as the installation of catch-up vaccination programmes to fill immunity gaps and to achieve herd immunity, (3) the implications of sporadic cases of secondary vaccine failure, (4) organisation, acceptance and drawbacks of modern vaccination campaigns, (5) waning public attention to measles, but increasing concerns from vaccine-associated adverse reactions in societies with high socio-economic standards and (6) clinical, epidemiological and virological surveillance by the use of modern laboratory diagnostics and reporting systems. By consequent implementation of carefully designed epidemiologic and prophylactic measures, it should be possible to eradicate MeV globally out of mankind, as the closely related morbillivirus of rinderpest could be successfully eliminated out of the cattle on a global scale.

Defining the Enterovirus Diversity Landscape of a Fecal Sample: A Methodological Challenge?

Enteroviruses are a group of over 250 naked icosahedral virus serotypes that have been associated with clinical conditions that range from intrauterine enterovirus transmission withfataloutcome through encephalitis and meningitis, to paralysis. Classically, enterovirus detection was done by assaying for the development of the classic enterovirus-specific cytopathic effect in cell culture. Subsequently, the isolates were historically identified by a neutralization assay. More recently, identification has been done by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). However, in recent times, there is a move towards direct detection and identification of enteroviruses from clinical samples using the cell culture-independent RT semi-nested PCR (RT-snPCR) assay. This RT-snPCR procedure amplifies the VP1 gene, which is then sequenced and used for identification. However, while cell culture-based strategies tend to show a preponderance of certain enterovirus species depending on the cell lines included in the isolation protocol, the RT-snPCR strategies tilt in a different direction. Consequently, it is becoming apparent that the diversity observed in certain enterovirus species, e.g., enterovirus species B(EV-B), might not be because they are the most evolutionarily successful. Rather, it might stem from cell line-specific bias accumulated over several years of use of the cell culture-dependent isolation protocols. Furthermore, it might also be a reflection of the impact of the relative genome concentration on the result of pan-enterovirus VP1 RT-snPCR screens used during the identification of cell culture isolates. This review highlights the impact of these two processes on the current diversity landscape of enteroviruses and the need to re-assess enterovirus detection and identification algorithms in a bid to better balance our understanding of the enterovirus diversity landscape.

Acute Flaccid Paralysis: The New, The Old, and The Preventable

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) has a changing epidemiology with ongoing polio outbreaks and emerging causes such as nonpolio enteroviruses and West Nile virus (WNV). We report a case of AFP from the Horn of Africa that was initially classified as probable polio but subsequently found to be due to WNV.

Twenty-Eight Years of Poliovirus Replication in an Immunodeficient Individual: Impact on the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

There are currently huge efforts by the World Health Organization and partners to complete global polio eradication. With the significant decline in poliomyelitis cases due to wild poliovirus in recent years, rare cases related to the use of live-attenuated oral polio vaccine assume greater importance. Poliovirus strains in the oral vaccine are known to quickly revert to neurovirulent phenotype following replication in humans after immunisation. These strains can transmit from person to person leading to poliomyelitis outbreaks and can replicate for long periods of time in immunodeficient individuals leading to paralysis or chronic infection, with currently no effective treatment to stop excretion from these patients. Here, we describe an individual who has been excreting type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus for twenty eight years as estimated by the molecular clock established with VP1 capsid gene nucleotide sequences of serial isolates. This represents by far the longest period of excretion described from such a patient who is the only identified individual known to be excreting highly evolved vaccine-derived poliovirus at present. Using a range of in vivo and in vitro assays we show that the viruses are very virulent, antigenically drifted and excreted at high titre suggesting that such chronic excreters pose an obvious risk to the eradication programme. Our results in virus neutralization assays with human sera and immunisation-challenge experiments using transgenic mice expressing the human poliovirus receptor indicate that while maintaining high immunisation coverage will likely confer protection against paralytic disease caused by these viruses, significant changes in immunisation strategies might be required to effectively stop their occurrence and potential widespread transmission. Eventually, new stable live-attenuated polio vaccines with no risk of reversion might be required to respond to any poliovirus isolation in the post-eradication era.

The global polio eradication initiative is the most ambitious and complex public health programme directed at a single disease in history with a projected cost of $16.5 billion. Of the three serotypes types 2 and 3 appear to have been eradicated in the wild and type 1 is mostly confined to a region of Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is a real probability of total eradication in the near future. The main vaccine used is a live attenuated virus, and our paper concerns one of the most intractable significant implications that this has for the polio endgame. We describe virological studies of a patient deficient in humoral immunity who has been excreting type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus for 28 years. Our results show that the viruses are excreted at high titres, extremely virulent and antigenically drifted and raise questions about how the population may best be protected from them, particularly in the light of possible changes in vaccine production which are being encouraged to increase capability and reduce costs. The study has implications for the ecology of poliovirus in the human gut and highlights the risks that such vaccine-derived isolates pose for polio re-emergence in the post-eradication era.

The Israeli public health response to wild poliovirus importation

In 2013, a silent wild poliovirus type 1 importation and sustained transmission event occurred in southern Israel. With the aim of preventing clinical poliomyelitis and ensuring virus re-elimination, the public health response to the importation event included intensification of clinical and environmental surveillance activities, enhancement of vaccine coverage, and supplemental immunisation with a bivalent oral polio vaccine against wild poliovirus types 1 and 3. A national campaign launched in August, 2013, resulted in vaccination of 943,587 children younger than 10 years (79% of the eligible target population). Expanded environmental surveillance (roughly 80% population coverage) documented a gradual disappearance of wild poliovirus type 1 in the country from September, 2013, to April, 2014. No paralytic poliomyelitis case was detected. A prompt extensive and coordinated national public health response, implemented on the basis of evidence-based decision making, successfully contained this serious importation and sustained transmission event of wild poliovirus to Israel. On April 28, 2015, WHO officially declared Israel as a polio-free country.

Managing population immunity to reduce or eliminate the risks of circulation following the importation of polioviruses

Poliovirus importations into polio-free countries represent a major concern during the final phases of global eradication of wild polioviruses (WPVs). We extend dynamic transmission models to demonstrate the dynamics of population immunity out through 2020 for three countries that only used inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for routine immunization: the US, Israel, and The Netherlands. For each country, we explore the vulnerability to re-established transmission following an importation for each poliovirus serotype, including the impact of immunization choices following the serotype 1 WPV importation that occurred in 2013 in Israel. As population immunity declines below the threshold required to prevent transmission, countries become at risk for re-established transmission. Although importations represent stochastic events that countries cannot fully control because people cross borders and polioviruses mainly cause asymptomatic infections, countries can ensure that any importations die out. Our results suggest that the general US population will remain above the threshold for transmission through 2020. In contrast, Israel became vulnerable to re-established transmission of importations of live polioviruses by the late 2000s. In Israel, the recent WPV importation and outbreak response use of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV) eliminated the vulnerability to an importation of poliovirus serotypes 1 and 3 for several years, but not serotype 2. The Netherlands experienced a serotype 1 WPV outbreak in 1992-1993 and became vulnerable to re-established transmission in religious communities with low vaccine acceptance around the year 2000, although the general population remains well-protected from widespread transmission. All countries should invest in active management of population immunity to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses. IPV-using countries may wish to consider prevention opportunities and/or ensure preparedness for response. Countries currently using a sequential IPV/OPV schedule should continue to use all licensed OPV serotypes until global OPV cessation to minimize vulnerability to circulation of imported polioviruses.