Projected impact and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus targeted azithromycin administration strategies for reducing child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

Mass drug administration of antibacterials: weighing the evidence regarding benefits and risks

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) is a strategy to improve health at the population level through widespread delivery of medicine in a community. We surveyed the literature to summarize the benefits and potential risks associated with MDA of antibacterials, focusing predominantly on azithromycin as it has the greatest evidence base.

Main body

High-quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) indicate that MDA-azithromycin is effective in reducing the prevalence of infection due to yaws and trachoma. In addition, RCTs suggest that MDA-azithromycin reduces under-five mortality in certain low-resource settings that have high childhood mortality rates at baseline. This reduction in mortality appears to be sustained over time with twice-yearly MDA-azithromycin, with the greatest effect observed in children < 1 year of age. In addition, observational data suggest that infections such as skin and soft tissue infections, rheumatic heart disease, acute respiratory illness, diarrheal illness, and malaria may all be treated by azithromycin and thus incidentally impacted by MDA-azithromycin. However, the mechanism by which MDA-azithromycin reduces childhood mortality remains unclear. Verbal autopsies performed in MDA-azithromycin childhood mortality studies have produced conflicting data and are underpowered to answer this question. In addition to benefits, there are several important risks associated with MDA-azithromycin. Direct adverse effects potentially resulting from MDA-azithromycin include gastrointestinal side effects, idiopathic hypertrophic pyloric stenosis, cardiovascular side effects, and increase in chronic diseases such as asthma and obesity. Antibacterial resistance is also a risk associated with MDA-azithromycin and has been reported for both gram-positive and enteric organisms. Further, there is the risk for cross-resistance with other antibacterial agents, especially clindamycin.

Conclusions

Evidence shows that MDA-azithromycin programs may be beneficial for reducing trachoma, yaws, and mortality in children < 5 years of age in certain under-resourced settings. However, there are significant potential risks that need to be considered when deciding how, when, and where to implement these programs. Robust systems to monitor benefits as well as adverse effects and antibacterial resistance are warranted in communities where MDA-azithromycin programs are implemented.

Graphical Abstract

Biannual azithromycin distribution and child mortality among malnourished children: A subgroup analysis of the MORDOR cluster-randomized trial in Niger

BACKGROUND

Biannual azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce child mortality as well as increase antimicrobial resistance. Targeting distributions to vulnerable subgroups such as malnourished children is one approach to reaching those at the highest risk of mortality while limiting selection for resistance. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the effect of azithromycin on mortality differs by nutritional status.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A large simple trial randomized communities in Niger to receive biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo to children 1-59 months old over a 2-year timeframe. In exploratory subgroup analyses, the effect of azithromycin distribution on child mortality was assessed for underweight subgroups using weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) thresholds of -2 and -3. Modification of the effect of azithromycin on mortality by underweight status was examined on the additive and multiplicative scale. Between December 2014 and August 2017, 27,222 children 1-11 months of age from 593 communities had weight measured at their first study visit. Overall, the average age among included children was 4.7 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3-6), 49.5% were female, 23% had a WAZ < -2, and 10% had a WAZ < -3. This analysis included 523 deaths in communities assigned to azithromycin and 661 deaths in communities assigned to placebo. The mortality rate was lower in communities assigned to azithromycin than placebo overall, with larger reductions among children with lower WAZ: -12.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% CI -18.5 to -6.9, P < 0.001) overall, -17.0 (95% CI -28.0 to -7.0, P = 0.001) among children with WAZ < -2, and -25.6 (95% CI -42.6 to -9.6, P = 0.003) among children with WAZ < -3. No statistically significant evidence of effect modification was demonstrated by WAZ subgroup on either the additive or multiplicative scale (WAZ < -2, additive: 95% CI -6.4 to 16.8, P = 0.34; WAZ < -2, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4, P = 0.50, WAZ < -3, additive: 95% CI -2.2 to 31.1, P = 0.14; WAZ < -3, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7, P = 0.26). The estimated number of deaths averted with azithromycin was 388 (95% CI 214 to 574) overall, 116 (95% CI 48 to 192) among children with WAZ < -2, and 76 (95% CI 27 to 127) among children with WAZ < -3. Limitations include the availability of a single weight measurement on only the youngest children and the lack of power to detect small effect sizes with this rare outcome. Despite the trial's large size, formal tests for effect modification did not reach statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.

CONCLUSIONS

Although mortality rates were higher in the underweight subgroups, this study was unable to demonstrate that nutritional status modified the effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on mortality. Even if the effect were greater among underweight children, a nontargeted intervention would result in the greatest absolute number of deaths averted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The MORDOR trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981.