A new year, a new era: Romania and Bulgaria join the European Union

Retrospective analysis and time series forecasting with automated machine learning of ascariasis, enterobiasis and cystic echinococcosis in Romania

The epidemiology of neglected tropical diseases (NTD) is persistently underprioritized, despite NTD being widespread among the poorest populations and in the least developed countries on earth. This situation necessitates thorough and efficient public health intervention. Romania is at the brink of becoming a developed country. However, this South-Eastern European country appears to be a region that is susceptible to an underestimated burden of parasitic diseases despite recent public health reforms. Moreover, there is an evident lack of new epidemiologic data on NTD after Romania's accession to the European Union (EU) in 2007. Using the national ICD-10 dataset for hospitalized patients in Romania, we generated time series datasets for 2008-2018. The objective was to gain deep understanding of the epidemiological distribution of three selected and highly endemic parasitic diseases, namely, ascariasis, enterobiasis and cystic echinococcosis (CE), during this period and forecast their courses for the ensuing two years. Through descriptive and inferential analysis, we observed a decline in case numbers for all three NTD. Several distributional particularities at regional level emerged. Furthermore, we performed predictions using a novel automated time series (AutoTS) machine learning tool and could interestingly show a stable course for these parasitic NTD. Such predictions can help public health officials and medical organizations to implement targeted disease prevention and control. To our knowledge, this is the first study involving a retrospective analysis of ascariasis, enterobiasis and CE on a nationwide scale in Romania. It is also the first to use AutoTS technology for parasitic NTD.

European Union state of health from 1990 to 2017: time trends and its enlargements' effects

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study health status' time trends in the European Union (EU) during 1990-2017 and its enlargements' impact.

METHODS

Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study and calculating age-sex-standardized rates, we have described time trends and analysed the differences between EU groups regarding the state of health. Interrupted time-series analyses were also performed in order to assess the enlargement impact in the EU state of health.

RESULTS

All age-sex-standardized rates (mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years) declined (annualized rates of change of - 1.7%, - 1.52%, - 0.06% and - 1.01%, respectively) between 1990 and 2017 (except between 2014 and 2015). For EU-28, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy increased 5.9 and 4.6 years, respectively. With the EU-25 and EU-27 enlargements, all age-sex-standardized rates and life expectancies worsened (with statistical significance). The EU-28 enlargement revealed the same tendency, contrasting with the EU-15 one.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the EU health status is improving, despite changes in its composition over the years. However, the average EU state of health declined with the 2004, 2007 and 2013 EU enlargements.

Prevalence and predictors of anaemia in Romanian infants 6-23 months old

BACKGROUND

Anaemia is a public health problem that can lead to a variety of detrimental effects on physical and neurodevelopment in young children. The present study explored the epidemiology of anaemia among infants in Romania, identified risk factors and created a model for predicting it.

METHODS

Data from 1532 infants aged 6-24 months were selected from a larger nationally representative cross-sectional survey. Demographic predictor variables and haemoglobin concentration were extant variables in the data set. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of anaemia.

RESULTS

Overall, 46% of 6-24 month olds in the sample had anaemia (Hb < 11.0 g/dl). A variety of risk factors were associated with significantly greater odds of anaemia, but a five-factor model best predicted it (67.9% accuracy). These predictors included being male, living in a rural area, being third born or later, being a Hungarian and living in the South, South-West or West region of Romania.

CONCLUSIONS

While data indicate a modest decrease in anaemia from earlier Romanian studies, it remains a significant problem. Models like this one have the potential to improve identification and treatment of anaemia in young children.

Association of smoking, physical activity, and dietary habits with socioeconomic variables: a cross-sectional study in adults on both sides of the Hungarian-Romanian border

Background

The association between socioeconomic status and health-related behaviours has been clarified in several epidemiological studies. The aim of this study was to reveal the socioeconomic differences in health-related behaviours and in nutritional status of Hungarian and Romanian citizens living on both sides of the border.

Methods

A cross-sectional study based on interviewer-administered questionnaires was conducted on both sides of the Hungarian-Romanian border. The survey was completed by 1, 099 Hungarians (Hu) and 852 Romanians (Ro) aged 18 years and over; the overall participation rate was 92.9%. Demographic and socioeconomic factors, health-related behaviours (smoking, dietary habits and physical activity), body weight and height were recorded. All analyses were performed separately for Hungarians and Romanians. Simple descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to measure the associations between socioeconomic status and behaviour, as well as obesity.

Results

The prevalence of smoking was similar in Hungarians and Romanians (33.2% and 36.4%). The frequency of "unhealthy diet" was 70.6% in Hungarians and 75.2% in Romanians. Physical inactivity was more prevalent in Romanians (73.2%) than in Hungarians (32.0%), while the prevalence of obesity was higher in Hungarians (22.0%) than in Romanians (16.5%). Based on the univariate logistic regression models the risk of smoking was higher among those with medium educational level (ORHu = 1.66) and poor financial conditions (ORHu = 3.13) in Hungarians. The risk of unhealthy diet was higher among the low educated (ORHu = 1.77; ORRo = 7.91) and among those with poor financial conditions (ORHu = 2.05; ORRo = 4.25). None of the socioeconomic factors was associated with leisure time physical inactivity. In the multivariate models obesity was associated with medium level of education in Hungarians, and with unhealthy diet in Romanians (ORRo = 2.10). Physically inactive Hungarians were more (ORHu = 1.74), whereas inactive Romanians were less (ORRo = 0.64) likely to be obese than physically active people from the same country.

Conclusions

The present study shows that socioeconomic status is associated with health-related behaviours in a small area of Hungary and Romania. The results highlight the need for developing interventional strategies, focusing more on people in lower socioeconomic status, in order to reduce the existing inequalities in health and health-related behaviours.

Perceived barriers to the development of modern public health in Bulgaria: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

This qualitative investigation documents Bulgarian perspectives on public health following its accession to the European Union (EU) and explores perceived obstacles to the modernization of public health sciences to more effectively address the country's high rates of premature avoidable mortality.

METHODS

28 semi-structured interviews were conducted throughout Bulgaria in April 2007 with Bulgarian academics, clinicians, policymakers and students in Sofia, Varna and Pleven. Full transcripts were subjected to formal thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Respondents identified various barriers to the development and modernization to public health infrastructures in Bulgaria that were classified by four key interlinked themes: (1) institutional and political, (2) financial, (3) dearth of local epidemiological studies, and (4) insufficient public health capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to explore specific perspectives and beliefs regarding barriers to the development, modernization, and utilization of public health sciences in Bulgaria. Although the reorientation and strengthening of public health institutions are unlikely to proceed without resistance, optimism for improvement in this field exists now that Bulgaria has joined the EU.

Some Bulgarian pre-enlargement research trends

AIM

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007. This study aims to analyse Bulgarian scientific health output over a five year period before enlargement, highlighting both its interests and concordance with European health recommendations.

METHODS

A bibliometric analysis was undertaken in MEDLINE between 2000 and 2004 according to a year-by-year bibliographic search. The articles were classified by fourteen fields according to the main European Union health report recommendations.

RESULTS

2176 articles were found, distributed as follows: 15.63% in 2000, 20.50% in 2001, 20.63% in 2002, 19.9% in 2003 and 23.25% in 2004. 89.48% of the articles were written in English, 78.81% of the total scientific output was published abroad. Most of the articles were signed by Bulgarian authors and were carried out in Bulgarian research centers.

CONCLUSION

Increased number of articles was noted mainly in the basic research field and global clinical medicine. Bulgarian research priorities generally were aligned with the European Union health recommendations. More sources are recommended to be consulted and more analysis conducted of the Bulgarian research.

A multilevel analysis of condom use among adolescents in the European Union

OBJECTIVES

This study examined which individual and national factors affect condom use among adolescents.

STUDY DESIGN

Multilevel analysis.

METHODS

This study reviewed the data on bullying, alcohol use and condom use provided by 18 European countries and subnational entities in the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children survey. Another eight contextual variables were also analysed. Three multilevel logistic regression models were applied consecutively (analysing for crude geographical and school variance in condom use, adjusting for gender and adjusting all variables for one another).

RESULTS

Among the 15-year-olds studied, 7.0% of the total variance in condom use was explained by school-related factors (intraschool-level correlation) and 5.8% by national/subnational factors. In the empty model, condom use was significantly associated with gender, alcohol consumption, predominant national religion and national prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In the full model, there was also a significant association with the Human Development Index ranking, gross domestic product, Gini coefficient and the Gender-related Development Index.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that while alcohol, gender, human development level, income, religion and HIV prevalence affect condom use in young Europeans, these factors do not explain all or even most of the variation. Nonetheless, since some of these factors are not traditionally associated with young people's sexual and reproductive health, these findings should enable more nuanced health policy programming.