The quantitative genetics of the prevalence of infectious diseases: hidden genetic variation due to indirect genetic effects dominates heritable variation and response to selection

Review: Opportunities and challenges for the genetic selection of dairy calf disease traits

Interest in dairy cow health continues to grow as we better understand health's relationship with production potential and animal welfare. Over the past decade, efforts have been made to incorporate health traits into national genetic evaluations. However, they have focused on the mature cow, with calf health largely being neglected. Diarrhoea and respiratory disease comprise the main illnesses with regard to calf health. Conventional methods to control calf disease involve early separation of calves from the dam and housing calves individually. However, public concern regarding these methods, and growing evidence that these methods may negatively impact calf development, mean the dairy industry may move away from these practices. Genetic selection may be a promising tool to address these major disease issues. In this review, we examined current literature for enhancing calf health through genetics and discussed alternative approaches to improve calf health via the use of epidemiological modelling approaches, and the potential of indirectly selecting for improved calf health through improving colostrum quality. Heritability estimates on the observed scale for diarrhoea ranged from 0.03 to 0.20, while for respiratory disease, estimates ranged from 0.02 to 0.24. The breadth in these ranges is due, at least in part, to differences in disease prevalence, population structure, data editing and models, as well as data collection practices, which should be all considered when comparing literature values. Incorporation of epidemiological theory into quantitative genetics provides an opportunity to better determine the level of genetic variation in disease traits, as it accounts for disease transmission among contemporaries. Colostrum intake is a major determinant of whether a calf develops either respiratory disease or diarrhoea. Colostrum traits have the advantage of being measured and reported on a continuous scale, which removes the issues classically associated with binary disease traits. Overall, genetic selection for improved calf health is feasible. However, to ensure the maximum response, first steps by any industry members should focus efforts on standardising recording practices and encouragement of uploading information to genetic evaluation centres through herd management software, as high-quality phenotypes are the backbone of any successful breeding programme.

Investigating the potential for genetic selection of dairy calf disease traits using management data

Genetic selection could be a tool to help improve the health and welfare of calves; however, to date, there is limited research on the genetics of calfhood diseases. This study aimed to understand the current impact of calf diseases, by investigating incidence rates, estimating genetic parameters, and providing industry recommendations to improve calf disease recording practices on farms. Available calf disease data composed of 69,695 Holstein calf disease records for respiratory problems (RESP) and diarrhea (DIAR), from 62,361 calves collected on 1,617 Canadian dairy herds from 2006 to 2021. Single- and multiple-trait analysis using both a threshold and linear animal model for each trait were evaluated. Furthermore, each trait was analyzed using 2 scenarios with respect to minimum disease incidence threshold criterion (herd-year incidence of at least 1% and 5%) to highlight the effect of different filtering thresholds on selection potential. Observed scale heritability estimates for RESP and DIAR ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 across analyses, while estimated genetic correlations between the traits ranged from 0.50 to 0.62. Sires were compared based on their estimated breeding value and their diseased daughter incidence rates. On average, calves born to the bottom 10% of sires were 1.8 times more likely to develop RESP and 1.9 times to develop DIAR compared with daughters born to the top 10% of sires. Results from the current study are promising for the inclusion of both DIAR and RESP in Canadian genetic evaluations. However, for effective genetic evaluation, standardized approaches on data collection and industry outreach to highlight the importance of collecting and uploading this information to herd management software is required. In particular, it is important that the herd management software is accessible to the national milk recording system to allow for use in national genetic evaluation.

Advances in understanding the genetic architecture of antibody response to paratuberculosis in sheep by heritability estimate and LDLA mapping analyses and investigation of candidate regions using sequence-based data

BACKGROUND

Paratuberculosis is a contagious and incurable disease that is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) with significant negative effects on animal welfare and farm profitability. Based on a large naturally infected flock over 12 years, we analyzed repeated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests (ELISA), OvineSNP50 BeadChip genotypes and whole-genome sequences imputed from 56 influential animals. The main goals were to estimate the genetic parameters of proxy traits for resistance to MAP, identify genomic regions associated with the host's immune response against MAP and search for candidate genes and causative mutations through association and functional annotation analyses of polymorphisms identified by sequencing.

RESULTS

Two variables were derived from ELISA tests. The first, a binary variable, assessed the infection status of each animal over the entire productive life, while the second considered the level of antibody recorded over time. Very similar results were obtained for both variables. Heritability estimates of about 0.20 were found and a significant region capturing 18% and 13% of the genetic variance was detected on ovine chromosome 20 by linkage disequilibrium and linkage analysis on OvineSNP50 positions. Functional annotation and association analyses on the imputed sequence polymorphisms that were identified in this region were carried out. No significant variants showed a functional effect on the genes that mapped to this region, most of which belong to the major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC II). However, the conditional analysis led to the identification of two significant polymorphisms that can explain the genetic variance associated with the investigated genomic region.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm the involvement of the host's genetics in susceptibility to MAP in sheep and suggest that selective breeding may be an option to limit the infection. The estimated heritability is moderate with a relevant portion being due to a highly significant region on ovine chromosome 20. The results of the combined use of sequence-based data and functional analyses suggest several genes belonging to the MHC II as the most likely candidates, although no mutations in their coding regions showed a significant association. Nevertheless, information from genotypes of two highly significant polymorphisms in the region can enhance the efficiency of selective breeding programs.

Genetics and Genomics of Infectious Diseases in Key Aquaculture Species

Diseases pose a significant and pressing concern for the sustainable development of the aquaculture sector, particularly as their impact continues to grow due to climatic shifts such as rising water temperatures. While various approaches, ranging from biosecurity measures to vaccines, have been devised to combat infectious diseases, their efficacy is disease and species specific and contingent upon a multitude of factors. The fields of genetics and genomics offer effective tools to control and prevent disease outbreaks in aquatic animal species. In this study, we present the key findings from our recent research, focusing on the genetic resistance to three specific diseases: White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) in white shrimp, Bacterial Necrotic Pancreatitis (BNP) in striped catfish, and skin fluke (a parasitic ailment) in yellowtail kingfish. Our investigations reveal that all three species possess substantial heritable genetic components for disease-resistant traits, indicating their potential responsiveness to artificial selection in genetic improvement programs tailored to combat these diseases. Also, we observed a high genetic association between disease traits and survival rates. Through selective breeding aimed at enhancing resistance to these pathogens, we achieved substantial genetic gains, averaging 10% per generation. These selection programs also contributed positively to the overall production performance and productivity of these species. Although the effects of selection on immunological traits or immune responses were not significant in white shrimp, they yielded favorable results in striped catfish. Furthermore, our genomic analyses, including shallow genome sequencing of pedigreed populations, enriched our understanding of the genomic architecture underlying disease resistance traits. These traits are primarily governed by a polygenic nature, with numerous genes or genetic variants, each with small effects. Leveraging a range of advanced statistical methods, from mixed models to machine and deep learning, we developed prediction models that demonstrated moderate-to-high levels of accuracy in forecasting these disease-related traits. In addition to genomics, our RNA-seq experiments identified several genes that undergo upregulation in response to infection or viral loads within the populations. Preliminary microbiome data, while offering limited predictive accuracy for disease traits in one of our studied species, underscore the potential for combining such data with genome sequence information to enhance predictive power for disease traits in our populations. Lastly, this paper briefly discusses the roles of precision agriculture systems and AI algorithms and outlines the path for future research to expedite the development of disease-resistant genetic lines tailored to our target species. In conclusion, our study underscores the critical role of genetics and genomics in fortifying the aquaculture sector against the threats posed by diseases, paving the way for more sustainable and resilient aquaculture development.

Genomic Characterization and Initial Insight into Mastitis-Associated SNP Profiles of Local Latvian Bos taurus Breeds

Latvia has two local Bos taurus breeds-Latvian Brown (LBG) and Latvian Blue (LZG)-characterized by a good adaptation to the local climate, longevity, and high fat and protein contents in milk. Since these are desired traits in the dairy industry, this study investigated the genetic background of the LBG and LZG breeds and identified the genetic factors associated with mastitis. Blood and semen samples were acquired, and whole genome sequencing was then performed to acquire a genomic sequence with at least 35× or 10× coverage. The heterozygosity, nucleotide diversity, and LD analysis indicated that LBG and LZG cows have similar levels of genetic diversity compared to those of other breeds. An analysis of the population structure revealed that each breed clustered together, but the overall differentiation between the breeds was small. The highest genetic variance was observed in the LZG breed compared with the LBG breed. Our results show that SNP rs721295390 is associated with mastitis in the LBG breed, and SNPs rs383806754, chr29:43998719CG>C, and rs462030680 are associated with mastitis in the LZG breed. This study shows that local Latvian LBG and LZG breeds have a pronounced genetic differentiation, with each one suggesting its own mastitis-associated SNP profile.

A novel method to jointly estimate transmission rate and decay rate parameters in environmental transmission models

In environmental transmission, pathogens transfer from one individual to another via the environment. It is a common transmission mechanism in a wide range of host-pathogen systems. Incorporating environmental transmission in dynamic transmission models is crucial for gauging the effect of interventions, as extrapolating model results to new situations is only valid when the mechanisms are modelled correctly. The challenge in environmental transmission models lies in not jointly identifiable parameters for pathogen shedding, decay, and transmission dynamics. To solve this unidentifiability issue, we present a stochastic environmental transmission model with a novel scaling method for shedding rate parameter and a novel estimation method that distinguishes transmission rate and decay rate parameters. The core of our scaling and estimation method is calculating exposure and relating exposure to infection risks. By scaling shedding rate parameter, we standardize exposure to pathogens contributed by one infectious individual present during one time interval to one. The standardized exposure leads to a standard definition of transmission rate parameter applicable to scenarios with different decay rate parameters. Hence, we unify direct transmission (large decay rate) and environmental transmission in a continuous manner. More importantly, our exposure-based estimation method can correctly estimate back the transmission rate and the decay rate parameters, while the commonly used trajectory-based method failed. The reason is that exposure-based method gives the correct weight to infection data from previous observation periods. The correct estimation from exposure-based method will lead to more reliable predictions of intervention impact. Using the effect of disinfection as an example, we show how incorrectly estimated parameters may lead to incorrect conclusions about the effectiveness of interventions. This illustrates the importance of correct estimation of transmission rate and decay rate parameters for extrapolating environmental transmission models and predicting intervention effects.

Can breeders prevent pathogen adaptation when selecting for increased resistance to infectious diseases?

Background

Recent research shows that genetic selection has high potential to reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases in livestock. However, like all interventions that target infectious diseases, genetic selection of livestock can exert selection pressure on pathogen populations. Such selection on the pathogen may lead to escape strategies and reduce the effect of selection of livestock for disease resistance. Thus, to successfully breed livestock for lower disease prevalence, it is essential to develop strategies that prevent the invasion of pathogen mutants that escape host resistance. Here we investigate the conditions under which such “escape mutants” can replace wild-type pathogens in a closed livestock population using a mathematical model of disease transmission.

Results

Assuming a single gene that confers sufficient resistance, results show that genetic selection for resistance in livestock typically leads to an “invasion window” within which an escape mutant of the pathogen can invade. The bounds of the invasion window are determined by the frequency of resistant hosts in the population. The lower bound occurs when the escape mutant has an advantage over the wild-type pathogen in the population. The upper bound occurs when local eradication of the pathogen is expected. The invasion window is smallest when host resistance is strong and when infection with the wild-type pathogen provides cross immunity to infection with the escape mutant.

Conclusions

To minimise opportunities for pathogens to adapt, under the assumptions of our model, the aim of disease control through genetic selection should be to achieve herd-level eradication of the infection faster than the rate of emergence of escape mutants of the pathogen. Especially for microparasitic infections, this could be achieved by placing animals into herds according to their genetic resistance, such that these herds stay completely out of the invasion window. In contrast to classical breeding theory, our model suggests that multi-trait selection with gradual improvement of each trait of the breeding goal might not be the best strategy when resistance to infectious disease is part of the breeding goal. Temporally, combining genetic selection with other interventions helps to make the invasion window smaller, and thereby reduces the risk of invasion of escape mutants.

Optimal experimental designs for estimating genetic and non-genetic effects underlying infectious disease transmission

BACKGROUND

The spread of infectious diseases in populations is controlled by the susceptibility (propensity to acquire infection), infectivity (propensity to transmit infection), and recoverability (propensity to recover/die) of individuals. Estimating genetic risk factors for these three underlying host epidemiological traits can help reduce disease spread through genetic control strategies. Previous studies have identified important 'disease resistance single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)', but how these affect the underlying traits is an unresolved question. Recent advances in computational statistics make it now possible to estimate the effects of SNPs on host traits from epidemic data (e.g. infection and/or recovery times of individuals or diagnostic test results). However, little is known about how to effectively design disease transmission experiments or field studies to maximise the precision with which these effects can be estimated.

RESULTS

In this paper, we develop and validate analytical expressions for the precision of the estimates of SNP effects on the three above host traits for a disease transmission experiment with one or more non-interacting contact groups. Maximising these expressions leads to three distinct 'experimental' designs, each specifying a different set of ideal SNP genotype compositions across groups: (a) appropriate for a single contact-group, (b) a multi-group design termed "pure", and (c) a multi-group design termed "mixed", where 'pure' and 'mixed' refer to groupings that consist of individuals with uniformly the same or different SNP genotypes, respectively. Precision estimates for susceptibility and recoverability were found to be less sensitive to the experimental design than estimates for infectivity. Whereas the analytical expressions suggest that the multi-group pure and mixed designs estimate SNP effects with similar precision, the mixed design is preferred because it uses information from naturally-occurring rather than artificial infections. The same design principles apply to estimates of the epidemiological impact of other categorical fixed effects, such as breed, line, family, sex, or vaccination status. Estimation of SNP effect precisions from a given experimental setup is implemented in an online software tool SIRE-PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Methodology was developed to aid the design of disease transmission experiments for estimating the effect of individual SNPs and other categorical variables that underlie host susceptibility, infectivity and recoverability. Designs that maximize the precision of estimates were derived.