Total and cause-specific mortality in the cardiovascular health study

Repetitive thought, cognition, and systemic inflammation in the midlife in the United States study

OBJECTIVE

Poor cognition increases risk for negative health outcomes, and this may be explained by associations with systemic inflammation. Previously, amount of repetitive thought (Total RT) interacted with IQ to predict interleukin-6 (IL-6) in older adults. This study continued the investigation of repetitive thought (RT) as an element involved in the effect of cognition on inflammation.

DESIGN

Participants (N = 164) came from the Midlife in the United States Refresher project (Mage = 45.33, SD = 11.51, ranges = 25-74; 48.2% female; 85% Caucasian). Cognition was assessed via telephone, inflammatory biomarkers (IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), and tumour-necrosis factor-alpha (TNF- α)) analysed after blood draw, and RT derived from daily diary data.

RESULTS

Cognition significantly interacted with RT valence (p = .009) to explain CRP after covariate adjustment. Better cognition and more negative RT valence was associated with lower CRP (β = -0.190 [-.387, .008]). Worse cognition and more negative RT valence was associated with higher CRP (β = 0.133 [-.031, .297]). No significant effects were found for IL-6 or TNF-α.

CONCLUSION

RT may interact with cognition to affect different inflammatory biomarkers. Those with worse cognition may benefit more from skills related to regulating thought than those with better cognition.

Who live longer than their age peers: individual predictors of longevity among older individuals

BACKGROUND

There are a very few studies focusing on the individual-based survival with a long follow-up time.

AIM

To identify predictors and determine their joint predictive value for longevity using individual-based outcome measures.

METHODS

Data were drawn from Tampere Longitudinal Study on Aging (TamELSA), a study of individuals' age 60-89 years (N = 1450) with a mortality follow-up of up to 35 years. Two measures of longevity were used: the longevity difference (LD) and realized probability of dying (RPD), both of which compare each individual's longevity with their life expectancy as derived from population life tables. Independent variables were categorized into five domains: sociodemographic, health and functioning, subjective experiences, social activities, and living conditions. Linear regression models were used in three steps: bivariate analysis for each variable, multivariate analysis based on backward elimination for each domain, and one final model.

RESULTS

The most important predictors of both outcomes were marital status, years smoked regularly, mobility, self-rated health, endocrine and metabolic diseases, respiratory diseases, and unwillingness to do things or lack of energy. The explained variance in longevity was 13.8% for LD and 14.1% for RPD. This demonstrated a large proportion of unexplained error margins for the prediction of individual longevity, even though many known predictors were used.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Several predictors associated with longer life were found. Yet, on an individual level, it remains difficult to predict who will live longer than their age peers. The stochastic element in the process of aging and in death may affect this prediction.

Causal analysis identifies small HDL particles and physical activity as key determinants of longevity of older adults

BACKGROUND

The hard endpoint of death is one of the most significant outcomes in both clinical practice and research settings. Our goal was to discover direct causes of longevity from medically accessible data.

METHODS

Using a framework that combines local causal discovery algorithms with discovery of maximally predictive and compact feature sets (the "Markov boundaries" of the response) and equivalence classes, we examined 186 variables and their relationships with survival over 27 years in 1507 participants, aged ≥71 years, of the longitudinal, community-based D-EPESE study.

FINDINGS

As few as 8-15 variables predicted longevity at 2-, 5- and 10-years with predictive performance (area under receiver operator characteristic curve) of 0·76 (95% CIs 0·69, 0·83), 0·76 (0·72, 0·81) and 0·66 (0·61, 0·71), respectively. Numbers of small high-density lipoprotein particles, younger age, and fewer pack years of cigarette smoking were the strongest determinants of longevity at 2-, 5- and 10-years, respectively. Physical function was a prominent predictor of longevity at all time horizons. Age and cognitive function contributed to predictions at 5 and 10 years. Age was not among the local 2-year prediction variables (although significant in univariable analysis), thus establishing that age is not a direct cause of 2-year longevity in the context of measured factors in our data that determine longevity.

INTERPRETATION

The discoveries in this study proceed from causal data science analyses of deep clinical and molecular phenotyping data in a community-based cohort of older adults with known lifespan.

FUNDING

NIH/NIA R01AG054840, R01AG12765, and P30-AG028716, NIH/NIA Contract N01-AG-12102 and NCRR 1UL1TR002494-01.

Inflammatory biomarkers, multi-morbidity, and biologic aging

OBJECTIVES

To study the association between multi-morbidity percentiles, which is a measure of clinical aging, and interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α.

METHODS

Participants 50 to 95 years of age from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging were assigned age- and sex-specific multi-morbidity percentiles using look-up tables that were reported previously (n = 1646). Percentiles were divided into quintiles for analysis. Plasma IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α levels were measured in 1595 participants. Median inflammatory marker levels were compared across multi-morbidity quintiles using nonparametric tests.

RESULTS

People with higher multi-morbidity percentiles had significantly higher IL-6 and TNF-α levels compared with those with lower multi-morbidity percentiles. Tests for trend across five multi-morbidity quintiles were significant among women for IL-6 and among participants 70 years of age or older for IL-6 and TNF-α. IL-10 was not associated with multi-morbidity percentiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Multi-morbidity percentiles may be a useful clinical index of biological age for future studies, particularly in women and people 70 years of age and older.

Cessie S, Marijt KA, Jukema JW, Mooijaart SP, van Buchem MA, van Hall T, Gussekloo J, Trompet S. Association of cognitive function with increased risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality: Longitudinal analysis, systematic review, and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

Background

Disturbed cognitive function is associated with several causes of mortality; however, the association between cognitive function and the risk of cancer death has not been extensively investigated yet. We aimed to evaluate the association of cognitive function with the risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) and Leiden 85-plus Study. Additionally, a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies were conducted to evaluate the association of cognitive function and risk of cancer death.

Methods

Risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality were reported using hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) in tertiles of cognitive function of PROSPER and Leiden85-Plus Study. Additionally, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, PsycINFO, Academic Search Premier, CINHAL, and Emcare were searched up to November 1^st, 2020 to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis. The relative risks (RRs) with 95%CI of cancer death per each standard deviation lower performance in cognitive measurements were calculated.

Results

Participants of PROSPER had 1.65-fold (95%CI 1.11–2.47) greater risk of cancer death (P for trend = 0.016) and 1.85-fold (95%CI 1.46–2.34) higher risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend<0.001), in multivariable models. Results of the Leiden-85 Plus Study showed that subjects with MMSE score below 24 had a lower chance of cancer death (HR 0.79, 95%CI 0.36–1.70, P for trend = 0.820) but had 2.18-fold (95%CI 1.57–3.02) higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to the reference group (P for trend<0.001). Besides, the results of systematic review and meta-analysis showed that per each standard deviation lower performance in cognitive function, individuals were at a 10% higher chance of cancer death (RR 1.10, 95%CI 1.00–1.20, P-value = 0.044).

Conclusions

Lower cognitive function performance is associated with a marginally increased risk of cancer death, in line with a significantly greater risk of all-cause mortality.

Cause-Specific Mortality as a Sequalae of Perioperative Stroke Following Cardiac and Vascular Surgery

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of data regarding cause-specific mortality following a perioperative stroke. In this study, we aim to establish the risk of cause-specific mortality associated with perioperative stroke following cardiac and vascular procedures at 30 days, 90 days, and 1-year postoperative. It is hoped that this fund of knowledge will enhance perioperative risk stratification and medical management for patients who have suffered a perioperative stroke.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study evaluating 277,654 cardiac and vascular surgical patients dually documented within the Inpatient Discharge Claims Database and the Pennsylvania Department of Health Death Statistics database. A univariate assessment followed by a multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the odds of cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, pulmonary, malignancy, infectious, and dementia causes of mortality following perioperative stroke.

RESULTS

Perioperative stroke significantly increased the odds of overall mortality (P<0.0001) as well as cause-specific mortality in all categories (P<0.05) except dementia (P=0.8907) at all-time endpoints. Cerebrovascular-related mortality was most impacted by perioperative stroke [adjusted odds ratio: 34.5 (29.1, 40.9), P<0.0001 at 30 d].

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative stroke in the cardiac and vascular surgical population is associated with increased odds of overall, cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, pulmonary, malignancy, and infectious causes of mortality at 30 days, 90 days, and 1-year postoperatively when compared with patients who did not experience a perioperative stroke.

Improving main analysis by borrowing information from auxiliary data

In many clinical and observational studies, auxiliary data from the same subjects, such as repeated measurements or surrogate variables, will be collected in addition to the data of main interest. Not directly related to the main study, these auxiliary data in practice are rarely incorporated into the main analysis, though they may carry extra information that can help improve the estimation in the main analysis. Under the setting where part of or all subjects have auxiliary data available, we propose an effective weighting approach to borrow the auxiliary information by building a working model for the auxiliary data, where improvement of estimation precision over the main analysis is guaranteed regardless of the specification of the working model. An information index is also constructed to assess how well the selected working model works to improve the main analysis. Both theoretical and numerical studies show the excellent and robust performance of the proposed method in comparison to estimation without using the auxiliary data. Finally, we utilize the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study for illustration.

Cancer mortality in a population-based cohort of American Indians - The strong heart study

BACKGROUND

Cancer mortality among American Indian (AI) people varies widely, but factors associated with cancer mortality are infrequently assessed.

METHODS

Cancer deaths were identified from death certificate data for 3516 participants of the Strong Heart Study, a population-based cohort study of AI adults ages 45-74 years in Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota. Cancer mortality was calculated by age, sex and region. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent associations between baseline factors in 1989 and cancer death by 2010.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 15.3 years, the cancer death rate per 1000 person-years was 6.33 (95 % CI 5.67-7.04). Cancer mortality was highest among men in North/South Dakota (8.18; 95 % CI 6.46-10.23) and lowest among women in Arizona (4.57; 95 % CI 2.87-6.92). Factors independently associated with increased cancer mortality included age, current or former smoking, waist circumference, albuminuria, urinary cadmium, and prior cancer history. Factors associated with decreased cancer mortality included Oklahoma compared to Dakota residence, higher body mass index and total cholesterol. Sex was not associated with cancer mortality. Lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer mortality overall (1.56/1000 person-years), but no lung cancer deaths occurred among Arizona participants. Mortality from unspecified cancer was relatively high (0.48/100 person-years; 95 % CI 0.32-0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Regional variation in AI cancer mortality persisted despite adjustment for individual risk factors. Mortality from unspecified cancer was high. Better understanding of regional differences in cancer mortality, and better classification of cancer deaths, will help healthcare programs address cancer in AI communities.

Cardiovascular damage phenotypes and all-cause and CVD mortality in older adults

PURPOSE

The association between CVD risk factors and mortality is well established, however, current tools for addressing subgroups have focused on the overall burden of disease. The identification of risky combinations of characteristics may lead to a better understanding of physiologic pathways that underlie morbidity and mortality in older adults.

METHODS

Participants included 5067 older adults from the Cardiovascular Health Study, followed for up to 6 years. Using latent class analysis (LCA), we created CV damage phenotypes based on probabilities of abnormal brain infarctions, major echocardiogram abnormalities, N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, troponin T, interleukin-6, c reactive-protein, galectin-3, cystatin C. We assigned class descriptions based on the probability of having an abnormality among risk factors, such that a healthy phenotype would have low probabilities in all risk factors. Participants were assigned to phenotypes based on the maximum probability of membership. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression to evaluate the association between the categorical CV damage phenotype and all-cause and CVD-mortality.

RESULTS

The analysis yielded 5 CV damage phenotypes consistent with the following descriptions: healthy (59%), cardio-renal (11%), cardiac (15%), multisystem morbidity (6%), and inflammatory (9%). All four phenotypes were statistically associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality when compared with the healthy phenotype. The multisystem morbidity phenotype had the greatest risk of all-cause death (HR: 4.02; 95% CI: 3.44, 4.70), and CVD-mortality (HR: 4.90, 95% CI: 3.95, 6.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Five CV damage phenotypes emerged from CVD risk factor measures. CV damage across multiple systems confers a greater mortality risk compared to damage in any single domain.

The gut microbiome and frailty

The human microbiome is constituted by an extensive network of organisms that lie at the host/environment interface and transduce signals that play vital roles in human health and disease across the lifespan. Frailty is a critical aging-related syndrome marked by diminished physiological reserve and heightened vulnerability to stress, predictive of major adverse clinical outcomes including death. While recent studies suggest the microbiome may impact key pathways critical to frailty pathophysiology, direct evaluation of the microbiome-frailty relationship remains limited. In this article, we review the complex interplay of biological, behavioral, and environmental factors that may influence shifts in gut microbiome composition and function in aging populations and the putative implications of such shifts for progression to frailty. We discuss HIV infection as a key prototype for elucidating the complex pathways via which the microbiome may precipitate frailty. Finally, we review considerations for future research efforts.

Long-term cognitive decline and mortality after carotid endarterectomy

OBJECTIVES

To date no studies have evaluated long term cognitive decline after carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We evaluated whether participants who had CEA were at increased risk of cognitive decline over participants who didn't undergo CEA.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The patients in the study were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a study of 5201 men and women over the age of 65 who were recruited from four communities (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Sacramento, California; Winston-Salem, North Carolina; Hagerstown, Maryland) in 1988-89. The outcomes measured were 1) Decline in 3MSE and digit symbol substitution test (DSST) scores after CEA compared to before CEA. 2) All-cause mortality in CHS cohort among participants who did and did not have CEA.

RESULTS

CEA patients had significantly greater annual decrease in the DSST scores -2.43 (SD 4.21) compared to those who did not have a CEA -1.1 (SD 2.57) (p < 0.001) but this was not seen in the 3MSE scores. CEA patients had increased the risk of decline in DSST (OR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.49, 3.88) and 3MSE (OR 2.17, 95 % CI 1.35, 3.48) scores after adjusting for age, gender, race and educational status. CEA was associated with all-cause mortality in the long term with a HR of 2.72 (95 % CI 2.22, 3.34) after adjusting for covariates. Participants with lower baseline 3MSE scores HR 1.39 (1.27, 1.51), lower DSST scores <34 HR 1.69(1.54, 1.85) were more likely deceased.

CONCLUSIONS

CEA patients are at increased risk of lower scores on 3MSE and DSST testing in the long term. Mortality in the CHS cohort was higher in participants who underwent CEA. Further, lower 3MSE and DSST scores increased the risk of mortality.

Female vulnerability to the effects of smoking on health outcomes in older people

Cigarette smoking is among the leading risk factors for mortality and morbidity. While men have a higher smoking prevalence, mechanistic experiments suggest that women are at higher risk for health problems due to smoking. Moreover, the comparison of smoking effects on multiple conditions and mortality for men and women has not yet been done in a population-based group with race/ethnic diversity. We used proportional hazards models and restricted mean survival time to assess differences in smoking effects by sex for multiple health outcomes using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a population-representative cohort of individuals aged 50+ (n = 22,708, 1992-2014). Men had experienced more smoking pack-years than women (22.0 vs 15.6 average pack-years). Age of death, onset of lung disorders, heart disease, stroke, and cancer showed dose-dependent effects of smoking for both sexes. Among heavy smokers (>28 pack-years) women had higher risk of earlier age of death (HR = 1.3, 95%CI:1.03-1.65) and stroke (HR = 1.37, 95%CI:1.02-1.83). Risk of cancer and heart disease did not differ by sex for smokers. Women had earlier age of onset for lung disorders (HR = 2.83, 95%CI:1.74-4.6), but men risk due to smoking were higher (Smoking-Sex interaction P<0.02) than women. Passive smoke exposure increased risk of earlier heart disease (HR = 1.33, 95%CI:1.07-1.65) and stroke (HR:1.54, 95%CI:1.07-2.22) for non-smokers, mainly in men. Smoking cessation after 15 years partially attenuated the deleterious smoking effects for all health outcomes. In sum, our results suggest that women are more vulnerable to ever smoking for earlier death and risk of stroke, but less vulnerable for lung disorders. From an epidemiological perspective, sex differences in smoking effects are important considerations that could underlie sex differences in health outcomes. These findings also encourage future mechanistic experiments to resolve potential mechanisms of sex-specific cigarette smoke toxicity.

Respiratory Disease and Lower Pulmonary Function as Risk Factors for Dementia: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In addition to affecting the oxygen supply to the brain, pulmonary function is a marker of multiple insults throughout life (including smoking, illness, and socioeconomic deprivation). In this meta-analysis of existing longitudinal studies, the hypothesis that lower pulmonary function and respiratory illness are linked to an elevated risk of dementia was tested.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of longitudinal studies using PubMed until April 1, 2019, and, where possible, results were pooled in random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Ten studies relating pulmonary function to later dementia risk and 11 studies of respiratory illness and dementia (including one that assessed both factors) were identified. The lowest quartile of FEV₁ compared with the highest was associated with a 1.4-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 0.77-2.75) increased dementia risk (N_total = 62,209; two studies). A decrease of 1 SD in FEV₁ was associated with a 28% increase in dementia risk (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03-1.60; N_total = 67,505; six studies). Respiratory illness was also associated with increased dementia risk to a similar degree (pooled HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.30-1.81; N_total = 288,641; 11 studies).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with poor pulmonary function experience an increased risk of dementia. The extent to which the association between poor pulmonary function and dementia is causal remains unclear and requires examination.

Racial differences in inflammation and outcomes of aging among kidney transplant candidates

Background

Inflammation is more common among African Americans (AAs), and it is associated with frailty, poor physical performance, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Given the elevated inflammation levels among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, inflammation may be associated with adverse health outcomes such as frailty, physical impairment, and poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and these associations may differ between AA and non-AA ESRD patients.

Methods

One thousand three ESRD participants were recruited at kidney transplant evaluation (4/2014–5/2017), and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], tumor necrosis factor-a receptor-1 [TNFR1], C-reactive protein [CRP]) were measured. We quantified the association with frailty (Fried phenotype), physical impairment (Short Physical Performance Battery [SPPB]), and fair/poor HRQOL at evaluation using adjusted modified Poisson regression and tested whether these associations differed by race (AA vs. non-AA).

Results

Non-AAs had lower levels of TNFR1 (9.7 ng/ml vs 14.0 ng/ml, p < 0.001) and inflammatory index (6.7 vs 6.8, p < 0.001) compared to AAs, but similar levels of IL-6 (4.5 pg/ml vs 4.3 pg/ml, p > 0.9) and CRP (4.7 μg/ml vs 4.9 μg/ml, p = 0.4). Non-AAs had an increased risk of frailty with elevated IL-6 (RR = 1.58, 95% CI:1.27–1.96, p < 0.001), TNFR1 (RR = 1.60, 95% CI:1.25–2.05, p < 0.001), CRP (RR = 1.41, 95% CI:1.10–1.82, p < 0.01), and inflammatory index (RR = 1.82, 95% CI:1.44–2.31, p < 0.001). The associations between elevated inflammatory markers and frailty were not present among AAs. Similar results were seen with SPPB impairment and poor/fair HRQOL.

Conclusions

Non-AAs with elevated inflammatory markers may need closer follow-up and may benefit from prehabilitation to improve physical function, reduce frailty burden, and improve quality of life prior to transplant.

A novel healthy metabolic phenotype developed among a cohort of families enriched for longevity

BACKGROUND

Long-lived individuals and their offspring have healthier metabolic characteristics than expected, such as more favorable levels of fasting glucose, insulin, and lipids than controls without longevity. Dysregulation in metabolic pathways has also shown to predict accelerated aging. Using information from the Long Life Family Study (LLFS), a multi-center study of two-generation families selected for exceptional longevity, we developed an indicator of healthy metabolism to determine whether metabolic health was more prevalent in a subset of LLFS families and whether it was heritable and associated with other metrics of healthy aging.

METHODS

A Latent Profile Analysis was applied to age- and gender-adjusted z-scores of fasting levels of glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, waist circumference, interleukin-6, and C-reactive protein. Families were defined as meeting the healthy metabolic phenotype if ≥2 and ≥50% of their offspring were classified into a latent subgroup with a profile of healthier metabolic markers than expected given age and gender relative to all LLFS offspring.

RESULTS

The log odds of being classified into the latent subgroup with a healthy profile of metabolic markers was heritable (h² = 0.40, p < 0.001). Among 388 families, 39 (10%) met the healthy metabolic phenotype. Participants from these families had somewhat better cognition than those from remaining families. Proband-generation participants from families who met the healthy metabolic phenotype also had better pulmonary functioning and physical performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The better cognition, pulmonary function, and physical performance among probands from families with the healthy metabolic phenotype may indicate that this subset of LLFS families have a more extreme longevity phenotype than other LLFS families since cognitive, physical, and pulmonary function are top mortality predictors for older adults. Future work is needed to determine if rare or protective alleles confer a healthy metabolic phenotype in this subset of LLFS families with exceptional metabolism.

Frailty, Inflammatory Markers, and Waitlist Mortality Among Patients With End-stage Renal Disease in a Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Among community-dwelling older adults, frailty is associated with heightened markers of inflammation and subsequent mortality. Although frailty is common among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, the role of frailty and markers of inflammation in this population remains unclear. We quantified these associations in patients on the kidney transplant waitlist and tested whether frailty and/or markers of inflammation improve waitlist mortality risk prediction.

METHODS

We studied 1975 ESRD patients on the kidney transplant waitlist (November 1, 2009, to February 28, 2017) in a multi-center cohort study of frailty. Serum inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], soluble tumor necrosis factor-α receptor-1 [sTNFR1], and C-reactive protein [CRP]) were analyzed in 605 of these participants; we calculated the inflammatory index score using IL-6 and sTNFR1. We compared the C-statistic of an established registry-based prediction model for waitlist mortality adding frailty and/or inflammatory markers (1 SD change in log IL-6, sTNFR1, CRP, or inflammatory index).

RESULTS

The registry-based model had moderate predictive ability (c-statistic = 0.655). Frailty was associated with increased mortality (2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-3.79) but did not improve risk prediction (c-statistic = 0.646; P = 0.65). Like frailty, IL-6 (2.13; 95% CI, 1.41-3.22), sTNFR1 (1.70; 95% CI, 1.12-2.59), CRP (1.68; 95% CI, 1.06-2.67), and the inflammatory index (2.09; 95% CI, 1.38-3.16) were associated with increased mortality risk; unlike frailty, adding IL-6 (c-statistic = 0.777; P = 0.02), CRP (c-statistic = 0.728; P = 0.02), or inflammatory index (c-statistic = 0.777; P = 0.02) substantially improved mortality risk prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty and markers of inflammation were associated with increased waitlist mortality risk, but only markers of inflammation significantly improved ESRD risk prediction. These findings help clarify the accelerated aging physiology of ESRD and highlight easy-to-measure markers of increased waitlist mortality risk.

Age, Race, and Gender Factors in Incident Disability

Background

Incident disability rates enable the comparison of risk across populations. Understanding these by age, sex, and race is important for planning for the care of older adults and targeting prevention.

Methods

We calculated incident disability rates among older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a study of 5,888 older adults aged ≥ 65 years over 6 years of follow-up. Disability was defined in the following two ways: (i) self-report of disability (severe difficulty or inability) in any of six Activities of Daily Living (ADL), and (ii) mobility difficulty (any difficulty walking half a mile or climbing 10 steps). Incident disability rates were calculated as events per 100 person years for age, gender, and race groups.

Results

The incidence of ADL disability, and mobility difficulty were 2.7 (2.5-2.8), and 9.8 (9.4-10.3) events per 100 person years. Women, older participants, and blacks had higher rates in both domains.

Conclusion

Incidence rates are considerably different based on the domain examined as well as age, race, and gender composition of the population. Prevention efforts should focus on high risk populations and attempt to ameliorate factors that increase risk in these groups.

Trajectories of Nonagenarian Health: Sex, Age, and Period Effects

The US population aged 90 years or more is growing rapidly, and there are limited data on their health. The Cardiovascular Health Study is a prospective study of black and white adults aged ≥65 years recruited in 2 waves (1989-1990 and 1992-1993) from Medicare eligibility lists in Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We created a synthetic cohort of the 1,889 participants who had reached age 90 years at baseline or during follow-up through July 16, 2015. Participants entered the cohort at 90 years of age, and we evaluated their changes in health after age 90 years (median duration of follow-up, 3 years (interquartile range, 1.3-5)). Measures of health included cardiovascular events, cognitive function, depressive symptoms, prescription medications, self-rated health, and functional status. The mortality rate was high: 19.0 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval : 17.8, 20.3) in women and 20.9 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 19.2, 22.8) in men. Cognitive function and all measures of functional status declined with age; these changes were similar by sex. When we isolated period effects, we found that medication use increased over time. These estimates can help inform future research and can help health-care systems meet the needs of this growing population.

Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Aging Frailty

Chronic diseases and degenerative conditions are strongly linked with the geriatric syndrome of frailty and account for a disproportionate percentage of the health care budget. Frailty increases the risk of falls, hospitalization, institutionalization, disability, and death. By definition, frailty syndrome is characterized by declines in lean body mass, strength, endurance, balance, gait speed, activity and energy levels, and organ physiologic reserve. Collectively, these changes lead to the loss of homeostasis and capability to withstand stressors and resulting vulnerabilities. There is a strong link between frailty, inflammation, and the impaired ability to repair tissue injury due to decreases in endogenous stem cell production. Although exercise and nutritional supplementation provide benefit to frail patients, there are currently no specific therapies for frailty. Bone marrow-derived allogeneic mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) provide therapeutic benefits in heart failure patients irrespective of age. MSCs contribute to cellular repair and tissue regeneration through their multilineage differentiation capacity, immunomodulatory, and anti-inflammatory effects, homing and migratory capacity to injury sites, and stimulatory effect on endogenous tissue progenitors. The advantages of using MSCs as a therapeutic strategy include standardization of isolation and culture expansion techniques and safety in allogeneic transplantation. Based on this evidence, we performed a randomized, double-blinded, dose-finding study in elderly, frail individuals and showed that intravenously delivered allogeneic MSCs are safe and produce significant improvements in physical performance measures and inflammatory biomarkers. We thus propose that frailty can be treated and the link between frailty and chronic inflammation offers a potential therapeutic target, addressable by cell therapy.

Racial Differences in Cause-Specific Mortality Between Community-Dwelling Older Black and White Adults

OBJECTIVES

To understand which causes of death are higher in black than white community-dwelling older adults and determine whether differences in baseline risk factors explain racial differences in mortality.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study (Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study).

SETTING

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee.

PARTICIPANTS

Black and white men and women aged 70 to 79 during recruitment (N=3,075; 48% men, 42% black) followed for a median of 13 years.

MEASUREMENTS

A committee of physicians adjudicated cause of death, which was categorized as cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, dementia, pulmonary, infection, kidney, or other causes. Using competing risks regression, we examined whether known risk factors at baseline (demographic characteristics, smoking, body mass index, chronic diseases, physical function, cognition) could explain racial differences in cause-specific mortality risk.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 1,991 (65%) participants died. Black participants died at higher rates from cancer (hazard ratio (HR)=1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.14-1.63), kidney disease (HR=2.09, 95% CI=1.16-3.74), stroke (HR=1.31, 95% CI=0.98-1.76); and CVD (HR=1.16, 95% CI=0.98-1.37). Poorer physical and cognitive performance at baseline among black participants explained most of the racial difference in risks of dying from kidney disease, stroke, and CVD but not cancer. When examining types of cancer deaths, black participants died at higher rates from multiple myeloma, pancreatic cancer, and prostate cancer, which baseline risk factors did not explain either.

CONCLUSION

Factors contributing to poorer physical and cognitive performance in similarly aged black men and women could be targets to reduce excess mortality from CVD, stroke, and kidney disease. More work is needed to identify factors contributing to cancer mortality disparities.

Keep moving without hurting: The interaction between physical activity and pain in determining cognitive function at the population level

Background

A number of studies have evaluated the association between cognitive function, pain, and physical activity. To our knowledge, however, no previous studies have evaluated these factors at the population level.

Aims

To evaluate the association between cognitive function in the elderly with pain, physical activity, and the interaction between these variables. Estimates are generated for the United States population.

Methods

We made use of the NHANES database (1999–2002), making adjustments so that our results represent the United States population. Cognitive function was evaluated through the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Our main predictors were (1) pain, defined as soreness of either the shoulder, neck, lower back and joint, or a severe headache (2) physical activity, measured as the performance while performing tasks at home, physical activity intensity, walking, bicycle riding, and muscle strengthening.

Results

Most individual pain sites were not significantly associated with cognitive function, while all physical activity factors were associated with an increase in cognitive function. When evaluating the sample subset of those with cognitive scores lower than the median, a combination of more pain and less physical activity was consistently associated with lower cognitive scores when compared to those performing more physical activity with or without pain. When evaluating individuals with cognitive scores above the median, a similar association pattern was perceived.

Conclusions

Among the population of individuals above the age of 60, higher cognitive levels are associated with more physical activity and less with pain, although both factors might impact cognition. Public policy resources should be commensurate with these findings when targeting cognitive function among the aging population.

Spirometric impairments, cardiovascular outcomes, and noncardiovascular death in older persons

BACKGROUND

In prior work involving older persons, the reported associations of spirometric impairments with cardiovascular outcomes may have been confounded by age-related changes in lung function. Hence, using more age-appropriate spirometric criteria from the Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI), we have evaluated the associations of spirometric impairments, specifically restrictive-pattern and airflow-obstruction, with cardiovascular death (CV-death) and hospitalization (CV-hospitalization). In these analyses, we also evaluated the competing outcome of noncardiovascular death (nonCV-death) and calculated measures of relative and absolute risk.

METHODS

Our study sample was drawn from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), including 4232 community-dwelling white persons aged ≥65 years. Multivariable regression models included the following baseline predictors: GLI-defined restrictive-pattern and airflow-obstruction, age, male gender, obesity, waist circumference, current smoker status, ≥10 pack-years of smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Outcomes included adjudicated CV-death, CV-hospitalization, and nonCV-death, ascertained over 10 years of follow-up. Measures of association included hazard ratios (HRs), rate ratios (RRs), and average attributable fraction (AAF), each with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Restrictive-pattern and airflow-obstruction were associated with CV-death (adjusted HRs: 1.57 [1.18, 2.09] and 1.29 [1.04, 1.60]) and with nonCV-death (adjusted HRs: 2.10 [1.63, 2.69] and 1.79 [1.51, 2.12]), respectively. Airflow-obstruction, but not restrictive-pattern, was also associated with CV-hospitalization (adjusted RRs: 1.18 [1.02, 1.36] and 1.20 [0.96, 1.50], respectively). The adjusted AAFs of restrictive-pattern and airflow-obstruction were 1.68% (0.46, 3.06) and 2.35% (0.22, 4.72) for CV-death, and 3.44% (1.97, 5.08) and 7.77% (5.15, 10.60) for nonCV-death, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Assessment of GLI-defined spirometric impairments contributes to broad geriatric risk stratifications for both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes.

Concordance With Prevention Guidelines and Subsequent Cancer, Cardiovascular Disease, and Mortality: A Longitudinal Study of Older Adults

Reports on the associations between multiple clinical and behavioral health indicators and major health outcomes among older adults are scarce. We prospectively examined concordance with guidelines from the American Cancer Society and American Heart Association for disease prevention in relation to cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality among Cardiovascular Health Study enrollees aged 65-98 years who, at baseline assessment in 1989-1996 (n = 3,491), were free of CVD and cancer. Total and cause-specific mortality, as well as incidence of cancer and CVD, were lower with higher guideline concordance. Independent of body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose, better health behaviors (diet, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) were associated with lower mortality (2-sided P < 0.0001). Among individuals with ideal levels for 3-4 of these 4 cardiometabolic biomarkers, those with poor concordance with health behavior recommendations had higher mortality compared with those who had the highest concordance with these behavioral recommendations (adjusted mortality hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 2.67). Older adults who are concordant with recommendations for cancer and CVD prevention have reduced rates of chronic disease and mortality. Interventions to achieve and maintain healthy lifestyle behaviors may offer benefits both in the presence and absence of adverse traditional clinical risk factors.

Transcriptome-wide association study of inflammatory biologic age

Chronic low grade inflammation is a fundamental mechanism of aging. We estimated biologic age using nine biomarkers from diverse inflammatory pathways and we hypothesized that genes associated with inflammatory biological age would provide insights into human aging. In Framingham Offspring Study participants at examination 8 (2005 to 2008), we used the Klemera-Doubal method to estimate inflammatory biologic age and we computed the difference (∆Age) between biologic age and chronologic age. Gene expression in whole blood was measured using the Affymetrix Human Exon 1.0 ST Array. We used linear mixed effect models to test associations between inflammatory ∆Age and gene expression (dependent variable) adjusting for age, sex, imputed cell counts, and technical covariates. Our study sample included 2386 participants (mean age 67A±9 years, 55% women). There were 448 genes significantly were associated with inflammatory ∆Age (P<2.8x10^-6), 302 genes were positively associated and 146 genes were negatively associated. Pathway analysis among the identified genes highlighted the NOD-like receptor signaling and ubiquitin mediated proteolysis pathways. In summary, we identified 448 genes that were significantly associated with inflammatory biologic age. Future functional characterization may identify molecular interventions to delay aging and prolong healthspan in older adults.

Intelligence and Interleukin-6 in Older Adults: The Role of Repetitive Thought

OBJECTIVE

Higher intelligence quotient (IQ) correlates with lower systemic inflammation, consistent with an association between lower IQ and disease risk. The present study examined the role of repetitive thought (RT) in the relationship between IQ and interleukin (IL)-6. RT is thinking attentively, repeatedly, and frequently about oneself and one's world and is characterized by valence (positive-negative), purpose (searching-solving), and total quantity (much-little).

METHODS

Estimated IQ and RT dimension scores were assessed at baseline in a sample of older adults (N = 120, mean age = 74 years), who thereafter had blood drawn up to 10 times semiannually (n = 799). Models were adjusted for body mass index, chronological age, and statin medication.

RESULTS

Higher IQ was associated with lower IL-6 (γ = -0.225, SE = 0.111, p = .045). Of the RT dimensions, only more total RT predicted lower IL-6 (γ = -0.037, SE = 0.011, p = .001), an effect that was not moderated by valence or purpose. More total RT accounted for part of the effect of IQ on IL-6 (indirect effect = -0.06 [confidence interval = -0.14 to -0.002]). There was also a significant interaction between IQ and total RT (F(1,119) = 6.97, p = .009), in which more total RT was more strongly associated with lower IL-6 for people with lower IQ.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some forms of RT such as worry may have negative health correlates for older adults, engaging in RT per se can be healthy insofar as it also encompasses planning, processing, and coping. Older adults with higher IQ were more likely to engage in RT, but those with average IQ benefitted the most with regard to a marker of systemic inflammation.

The Best Predictors of Survival: Do They Vary by Age, Sex, and Race?

We consider a broad set of variables used by social scientists and clinicians to identify the leading predictors of five‐year survival among American adults. We address a question not considered in earlier research: Do the strongest predictors of survival vary by age, sex or race/ethnicity? The analysis uses hazard models with 30 well‐established predictors to examine five‐year survival in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We find that the simple measure of self‐assessed health and self‐reported measures of functional ability and disability are the strongest predictors in all demographic groups, and are generally ranked considerably higher than biomarkers. Among the biomarkers, serum albumin is highly ranked in most demographic groups, whereas clinical measures of cardiovascular and metabolic function are consistently among the weakest predictors. Despite these similarities, there is substantial variation in the leading predictors across demographic groups, most notably by race and ethnicity

Predictive value of multiple cytokines and chemokines for mortality in an admixed population: 15-year follow-up of the Bambui-Epigen (Brazil) cohort study of aging

Inflammation, particularly elevated IL-6 serum levels, has been associated with increased mortality risk, mostly in Caucasians. The influence of genetic ethno-racial background on this association is unknown. We examined associations between baseline serum levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and other cytokines (IL1-2, TNF, IL-10, and IL1β) and chemokines (CCL2, CCL5, CXCL8, CXCL9 and CXCL10) with 15-year mortality in 1,191 admixed Brazilians aged 60years and over. Elevated IL6 level (but not other biomarkers) was associated with increased risk of deaths with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.51 (95% CI=1.15, 1.97), 1.54 (95% CI=1.20, 1.96) and 1.79 (95% CI=1.40, 2.29) for the 2nd, 3rd and the highest quartiles, respectively. Genomic African and Native American proportions did not modify the association (p>0.05). The discriminatory ability to predict death of a model based on IL-6 alone was similar as that of a comprehensive morbidity score (C statistics=0.59 and 0.60, respectively). The abilities of IL-6 and the morbidity score models to predict death remained stable for very long term after the baseline measurement. Our results indicate that genome-based African and Native American ancestries have no impact on the prognostic value of IL-6 for mortality.

(Dis)Trust your gut: the gut microbiome in age-related inflammation, health, and disease

Chronic inflammation represents one of the most consistent biologic features of aging. However, the precise etiology of persistent low-grade increases in inflammation remains unclear. Recent evidence suggests that the gut microbiome may play a key role in age-related inflammation. Indeed, several studies have indicated that older adults display an altered composition of the gut microbiota, and early evidence indicates that this dysbiosis is associated with the presence of several key circulating inflammatory analytes. The present review summarizes knowledge on age-related inflammation and discusses how potential relationships with gut dysbiosis may lead to novel treatment strategies in the future."The pattern of disease is an expression of the response of man to his total environment (physical, biological, and social); this response is, therefore, determined by anything that affects man himself or his environment." - Rene Dubos, 1961.

Impact of chemotherapy on medium-term physical function and activity of older breast cancer survivors, and associated biomarkers

OBJECTIVE

Chemotherapy is less often prescribed in older individuals due to concerns about post-treatment morbidity and quality of life. We evaluated the physical performance of breast cancer survivors treated with and without adjuvant chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a case-control study in 56 estrogen receptor positive breast cancer survivors (BCS) on adjuvant aromatase inhibitors 1-2years after definitive surgery. Cases had received adjuvant chemotherapy (n=27; age 70.5±3.6years) versus age-matched controls who had not (n=29; age 70.0±4.3years). Measures of grip strength, physical activity and performance, walking speed, fatigue, and self-reported physical function were collected. Biological correlates of inflammation, frailty and markers of DNA and RNA oxidation were compared.

RESULTS

Grip strength (controls: 21±7.4 vs.

CASES

29.7±5.0kg, p=0.20), physical activity (5403±3204 vs. 6801±9320steps/day, p=0.45), physical performance (short physical performance battery score: 10.1±1.8 vs. 10.4±1.1, p=0.52) and long-distance walking speed (1.2±0.21 vs. 1.3±0.41m/s, p=0.17) were similar between the two groups. Self-reported physical function was marginally lower in cases than controls (controls: 72±24 vs.

CASES

57±34AU, p=0.07). Fatigue disruptiveness was not different between groups (controls: 11.1±13.0 vs.

CASES

15.7±16.2AU, p=0.24). Similarly, the inflammation, oxidation, and frailty markers did not present a significant difference between groups, except for vitamin D levels (p=0.04).

CONCLUSION

Older women who received chemotherapy reported having slightly lower physical function, but a similar physical performance compared to women who did not. These data suggest that older BCS treated with chemotherapy recover to an extent similar to survivors who only received hormonal therapy.

Insulinlike Growth Factor Binding Protein-1 and Ghrelin Predict Health Outcomes Among Older Adults: Cardiovascular Health Study Cohort

CONTEXT

Multiple diseases may explain the association of the growth hormone/insulinlike growth factor-I (GH/IGF-I) axis with longevity.

OBJECTIVE

To relate circulating GH/IGF-I system protein levels with major health events.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This is a cohort study set in 4 US communities.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults (N = 2268) 65 years and older free of diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

MEASUREMENTS

We assessed insulinlike growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and ghrelin in fasting and 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) blood samples, as well as fasting IGF-I and IGFBP-3. Hazard ratios for mortality and a composite outcome for first incident myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, hip fracture, or death were adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and physiological covariates.

RESULTS

During 13,930 person-years of follow-up, 48.1% of individuals sustained one or more components of the composite outcome and 31.8% died. Versus the lowest quartiles, the highest quartiles of fasting and 2-hour ghrelin were associated with 27% higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6%, 53%) and 39% higher (95% CI: 14%, 71%) risks of the composite outcome, respectively. The highest quartile of 2-hour IGFBP-1 was associated with 35% higher (95% CI: 1%, 52%) risk of the composite end point. Similarly, higher mortality was significantly associated with higher fasting and 2-hour ghrelin levels and with 2-hour IGFBP-1 level. When examined together, 2-hour post-OGTT levels of IGFBP-1 and ghrelin tended to predict outcomes better than fasting levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating IGFBP-1 and ghrelin measured during an OGTT predicted major health events and death in older adults, which may explain the influence of the GH/IGF-I axis on lifespan and health.

Association of an Index of Healthy Aging With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in a Community-Based Sample of Older Adults

BACKGROUND

The healthy aging index (HAI) was developed as a marker of health in multiple systems that can identify individuals who age most successfully.

METHODS

We calculated an HAI in 934 Framingham Offspring Study participants aged 60 or older at baseline. Heart rate and C-reactive protein (CRP) were added in modified versions of the HAI. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the association of the HAI with mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. We used fully conditional specification to multiply impute missing values for HAI components, increasing the sample size by 44%.

RESULTS

Over 10 years of follow-up, there were 138 deaths, 103 incident cases of CVD, and 138 incident cases of cancer. In models adjusted for age, sex, and behavioral risk factors, the HAI was associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per unit of HAI 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.36) and with CVD (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42), but not with cancer (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91-1.11) in observed (non-missing) data. In multivariable models further adjusting for prevalent diseases, results were slightly attenuated. When including heart rate and CRP, a modified HAI gave stronger associations. Results with imputed data are similar to results from complete case analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In our large community-based sample, the HAI is a strong predictor of mortality and CVD. Other factors that are strongly associated with mortality, such as heart rate and CRP can improve the ability of the HAI to identify the healthiest older adults.

Can a Healthy Lifestyle Compress the Disabled Period in Older Adults?

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether lifestyle factors, measured late in life, could compress the disabled period toward the end of life.

DESIGN

Community-based cohort study of older adults followed from 1989 to 2015.

SETTING

Four U.S. communities.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-living men and women aged 65 and older (N = 5,248, mean age 72.7 ± 5.5, 57% female, 15.2% minority) who were not wheelchair dependent and were able to give informed consent at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Multiple lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, body mass index (BMI), social networks, and social support, were measured at baseline. Activities of daily living (ADLs) were assessed at baseline and throughout follow-up. Years of life (YoL) was defined as years until death. Years of able life (YAL) was defined as years without any ADL difficulty. YAL/YoL%, the proportion of life lived able, was used to indicate the relative compression or expansion of the disabled period.

RESULTS

The average duration of disabled years was 4.5 (out of 15.4 mean YoL) for women and 2.9 (out of 12.4 mean YoL) for men. In a multivariable model, obesity was associated with 7.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.4-9.2) lower YAL/YoL% than normal weight. Scores in the lowest quintile of the Alternate Healthy Eating Index were associated with a 3.7% (95% CI = 1.6-5.9) lower YAL/YoL% than scores in the highest quintile. Every 25 blocks walked in a week was associated with 0.5 percentage points (95% CI = 0.3-0.8) higher YAL/YoL%.

CONCLUSION

The effects of healthy lifestyle factors on the proportion of future life lived free of disability indicate that the disabled period can be compressed, given the right combination of these factors.

Hypertension and aging

Hypertension is a highly prevalent condition with numerous health risks, and the incidence of hypertension is greatest among older adults. Traditional discussions of hypertension have largely focused on the risks for cardiovascular disease and associated events. However, there are a number of collateral effects, including risks for dementia, physical disability, and falls/fractures which are increasingly garnering attention in the hypertension literature. Several key mechanisms--including inflammation, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction--are common to biologic aging and hypertension development and appear to have key mechanistic roles in the development of the cardiovascular and collateral risks of late-life hypertension. The objective of the present review is to highlight the multi-dimensional risks of hypertension among older adults and discuss potential strategies for treatment and future areas of research for improving overall care for older adults with hypertension.

Association of Cognitive Function With Cause-Specific Mortality in Middle and Older Age: Follow-up of Participants in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

We examined the little-tested associations between general cognitive function in middle and older age and later risk of death from chronic diseases. In the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2002-2012), 11,391 study participants who were 50-100 years of age at study induction underwent a battery of cognitive tests and provided a range of collateral data. In an analytical sample of 9,204 people (4,982 women), there were 1,488 deaths during follow-up (mean duration, 9.0 years). When we combined scores from 4 cognition tests that represented 3 acknowledged key domains of cognitive functioning (memory, executive function, and processing speed), cognition was inversely associated with deaths from cancer (per each 1-standard-deviation decrease in general cognitive function score, hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.33), cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.55, 1.89), other causes (hazard ratio = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.79, 2.40), and respiratory illness (hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% CI: 2.12, 2.90). Controlling for a range of covariates, such as health behaviors and socioeconomic status, and left-censoring to explore reverse causality had very little impact on the strength of these relationships. These findings indicate that cognitive test scores can provide relatively simple indicators of the risk of death from an array of chronic diseases and that these associations appear to be independent of other commonly assessed risk factors.

Association of Smoking, Alcohol, and Obesity with Cardiovascular Death and Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and cardiovascular (CV) death. Whether modifiable lifestyle risk factors are associated with these CV outcomes in AF is unknown. Among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants with incident AF, we estimated the risk of composite endpoint of ischemic stroke or CV death associated with candidate modifiable risk factor (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, or high body mass index [BMI]), and computed the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating each factor into the CHA₂DS₂-VASc. Among 1222 ARIC (mean age: 63.4) and 756 CHS (mean age: 79.1) participants with incident AF, during mean follow-up of 6.9 years and 5.7 years, there were 332 and 335 composite events respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a higher incidence of the composite endpoint in ARIC [HR: 1.65 (1.21–2.26)] but not in CHS [HR: 1.05 (0.69–1.61)]. In ARIC, the addition of current smoking did not improve risk prediction over and above the CHA₂DS₂-VASc. No significant associations were observed with alcohol consumption or BMI with CVD outcomes in AF patients from either cohort. Smoking is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke or CV death in ARIC, which comprised mostly middle-aged to young-old (65–74 years), but not in CHS, which comprised mostly middle-old or oldest-old (≥75 years) adults with AF. However, addition of smoking to the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score did not improve risk prediction of these outcomes.

Mortality After Bereavement: The Role of Cardiovascular Disease and Depression

OBJECTIVES

Late-life bereavement is associated with an increased risk of mortality. This study assesses the associations among bereavement, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and depressive symptoms on mortality in older men and women.

METHODS

We examined data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of older adults. We compared mortality in those who became bereaved from 1989 to 1999 (n = 593) to an age- and sex-matched sample of individuals who remained married (n = 593). Cox regression was used to examine the association between bereavement and 3-year all-cause mortality and whether or not the association differed by sex, presence of CVD, or postbereavement depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

One hundred ninety-nine (16.8%) individuals died. There was no association of bereavement with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.98 [0.74-1.30]). However, there were significant interaction effects of bereavement with participant sex (p < .001) and CVD (p = .010). Bereavement decreased the risk of mortality in women (HR = 0.67 [0.46-0.97]) and increased the risk of mortality in men (HR = 1.77 [1.14-2.75]). Within sex, the association of bereavement with mortality differed according to CVD status. The reduced risk of mortality associated with bereavement in women was only observed in women with CVD, and the increased risk in men was only observed in men without CVD. High levels of depressive symptoms attenuated the relation between bereavement and mortality in men without CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

The relation between bereavement and mortality was different in men and women and varied by CVD status. Bereavement decreased mortality in women with CVD and increased mortality in men without CVD.

Sex, Race, and Age Differences in Observed Years of Life, Healthy Life, and Able Life among Older Adults in The Cardiovascular Health Study

Objective: Longevity fails to account for health and functional status during aging. We sought to quantify differences in years of total life, years of healthy life, and years of able life among groups defined by age, sex, and race. Design: Primary analysis of a cohort study. Setting: 18 years of annual evaluations in four U.S. communities. Participants: 5888 men and women aged 65 and older. Measurements: Years of life were calculated as the time from enrollment to death or 18 years. Years of total, healthy, and able life were determined from self-report during annual or semi-annual contacts. Cumulative years were summed across each of the age and sex groups. Results: White women had the best outcomes for all three measures, followed by white men, non-white women, and non-white men. For example, at the mean age of 73, a white female participant could expect 12.9 years of life, 8.9 of healthy life and 9.5 of able life, while a non-white female could expect 12.6, 7.0, and 8.0 years, respectively. A white male could expect 11.2, 8.1, and 8.9 years of life, healthy life, and able life, and a non-white male 10.3, 6.2, and 7.9 years. Regardless of starting age, individuals of the same race and sex groups spent similar amounts (not proportions) of time in an unhealthy or unable state. Conclusion: Gender had a greater effect on longevity than did race, but race had a greater effect on years spent healthy or able. The mean number of years spent in an unable or sick state was surprisingly independent of the lifespan.

Frailty, Inflammation, and Mortality Among Persons Aging With HIV Infection and Injection Drug Use

BACKGROUND

Serum markers of inflammation increase with age and have been strongly associated with adverse clinical outcomes among both HIV-infected and uninfected adults. Yet, limited data exist on the predictive and clinical utility of aggregate measures of inflammation. This study sought to evaluate the relationship of a recently validated aggregate inflammatory index with frailty and mortality among aging HIV-infected and uninfected injection drug users.

METHODS

Frailty was assessed among HIV-infected and uninfected participants in the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) cohort study using the five Fried phenotypic criteria: weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, decreased grip strength, and slow gait. The aggregate inflammatory index was constructed from serum measures of interleukin-6 and soluble tumor necrosis factor-α receptor-1. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the relationship of frailty with inflammation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate risk for all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,326 subjects, the median age was 48 years and 29% were HIV-infected. Adjusting for sociodemographics, comorbidity, and HIV status, frailty was significantly associated with each standard deviation increase in log interleukin-6 (odds ratio 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.61), log tumor necrosis factor-α receptor-1 (odds ratio 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.51) and inflammatory index score (odds ratio 1.39; 95% CI, 1.14-1.68). Adjusting for sociodemographics, comorbidity, HIV status, and frailty, the inflammatory index score was independently associated with increased mortality (HR 1.65; 95% CI, 1.44-1.89).

CONCLUSION

A recently validated, simple, biologically informed inflammatory index is independently associated with frailty and mortality risk among aging HIV-infected and uninfected injection drug users.

5 year mortality predictors in 498,103 UK Biobank participants: a prospective population-based study

BACKGROUND

To our knowledge, a systematic comparison of predictors of mortality in middle-aged to elderly individuals has not yet been done. We investigated predictors of mortality in UK Biobank participants during a 5 year period. We aimed to investigate the associations between most of the available measurements and 5 year all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and to develop and validate a prediction score for 5 year mortality using only self-reported information.

METHODS

Participants were enrolled in the UK Biobank from April, 2007, to July, 2010, from 21 assessment centres across England, Wales, and Scotland with standardised procedures. In this prospective population-based study, we assessed sex-specific associations of 655 measurements of demographics, health, and lifestyle with all-cause mortality and six cause-specific mortality categories in UK Biobank participants using the Cox proportional hazard model. We excluded variables that were missing in more than 80% of the participants and all cardiorespiratory fitness test measurements because summary data were not available. Validation of the prediction score was done in participants enrolled at the Scottish centres. UK life tables and census information were used to calibrate the score to the overall UK population.

FINDINGS

About 500,000 participants were included in the UK Biobank. We excluded participants with more than 80% variables missing (n=746). Of 498,103 UK Biobank participants included (54% of whom were women) aged 37-73 years, 8532 (39% of whom were women) died during a median follow-up of 4·9 years (IQR 4·33-5·22). Self-reported health (C-index including age 0·74 [95% CI 0·73-0·75]) was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality in men and a previous cancer diagnosis (0·73 [0·72-0·74]) was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality in women. When excluding individuals with major diseases or disorders (Charlson comorbidity index >0; n=355 043), measures of smoking habits were the strongest predictors of all-cause mortality. The prognostic score including 13 self-reported predictors for men and 11 for women achieved good discrimination (0·80 [0·77-0·83] for men and 0·79 [0·76-0·83] for women) and significantly outperformed the Charlson comorbidity index (p<0·0001 in men and p=0·0007 in women). A dedicated website allows the interactive exploration of all results along with calculation of individual risk through an online questionnaire.

INTERPRETATION

Measures that can simply be obtained by questionnaires and without physical examination were the strongest predictors of all-cause mortality in the UK Biobank population. The prediction score we have developed accurately predicts 5 year all-cause mortality and can be used by individuals to improve health awareness, and by health professionals and organisations to identify high-risk individuals and guide public policy.

FUNDING

Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and the Swedish Research Council.

Emerging roles of frailty and inflammaging in risk assessment of age-related chronic diseases in older adults: the intersection between aging biology and personalized medicine

A chronic disease in older adults usually runs a course that is less predictable than in younger individuals. Unexplained variations in disease incidence, prognosis, therapeutic responses, and toxicity are frequently observed among older adults. This heterogeneity poses huge challenges to the current one-size-fits-all health care systems, and calls for more personalized managements of chronic diseases in older adults. Aging is characterized by progressive deterioration of bodily functions with increasing risk of failure over time. The entire process is hierarchically organized, and progresses from intracellular events to changes at systemic and ultimately organism levels at different rates among different individuals. Aging biology exerts great influences on the development and progression of most age-related chronic diseases. Thus, aging biology could contribute to the complexity of illnesses that increase with age, and aging biomarkers possess a great potential to enable personalized health risk assessment and health care. We review evidences supporting the roles of aging biomarkers in risk assessment of prevalent age-related diseases. Frailty phenotype is an objectively measured indicator of advanced-stage aging that is characterized by organism-level dysfunction. In contrast, altered inflammation markers level signifies an earlier stage between cellular abnormalities and systems dysfunction. Results of human observational studies and randomized controlled trials indicate that these measures, albeit simple, greatly facilitate classification of older patients with cancer, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus into groups that vary in disease incidence, prognosis and therapeutic response/toxicity. As the detailed mechanisms underlying the complex biologic process of aging are unraveled in the future, a larger array of biomarkers that correlate with biologic aging at different stages will be discovered. Following the translational research framework described in this article, these research efforts would result in innovations in disease prevention and management that address the huge unmet health needs of aging populations.

Beyond Self-Reports: Changes in Biomarkers as Predictors of Mortality

The proliferation of biosocial surveys has increased the importance of weighing the costs and benefits of adding biomarker collection to population-based surveys. A crucial question is whether biomarkers offer incremental value beyond self-reported measures, which are easier to collect and impose less respondent burden. We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (n = 639, aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006 with mortality follow-up through 2011) to address that question with respect to predicting all-cause mortality. A summary measure of biomarkers improves mortality prediction (as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) compared with self-reports alone, but individual biomarkers perform better than the summary score. We find that incorporating change in biomarkers over a six-year period yields a small improvement in mortality prediction compared with one-time measurement. But, is the incremental value worth the costs?

Menthol cigarettes and the cardiovascular risks of people living with HIV

The possibility that menthol cigarettes add to the deleterious cardiovascular effects of smoking has been barely discussed. Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are at the forefront of medical concerns of people living with HIV (PLWH), an important, yet unknown, issue for clinicians and public health authorities is whether use of menthol-flavored cigarettes heightens CVD risk factors. Our study aims to assess traditional (10-year risk using the Framingham Risk Model) and nontraditional CVD risk factors and to contrast the effects of menthol-flavored versus non-menthol-flavored cigarettes on these risk factors. Compared to controls, menthol smokers were twice as likely to have hypertension. Users of menthol-flavored cigarettes had higher body mass index values, and increased risk of abdominal obesity. Multivariate analyses indicated that menthol smokers doubled the odds of having moderate to high CVD risk. This finding is highly significant given the widespread use of menthol-flavored cigarettes, particularly among women, minorities, and PLWH.

Age, gender, and cancer but not neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases strongly modulate systemic effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 allele on lifespan

Enduring interest in the Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism is ensured by its evolutionary-driven uniqueness in humans and its prominent role in geriatrics and gerontology. We use large samples of longitudinally followed populations from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) original and offspring cohorts and the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) to investigate gender-specific effects of the ApoE4 allele on human survival in a wide range of ages from midlife to extreme old ages, and the sensitivity of these effects to cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders (ND). The analyses show that women's lifespan is more sensitive to the e4 allele than men's in all these populations. A highly significant adverse effect of the e4 allele is limited to women with moderate lifespan of about 70 to 95 years in two FHS cohorts and the LLFS with relative risk of death RR = 1.48 (p = 3.6×10⁻⁶) in the FHS cohorts. Major human diseases including CVD, ND, and cancer, whose risks can be sensitive to the e4 allele, do not mediate the association of this allele with lifespan in large FHS samples. Non-skin cancer non-additively increases mortality of the FHS women with moderate lifespans increasing the risks of death of the e4 carriers with cancer two-fold compared to the non-e4 carriers, i.e., RR = 2.07 (p = 5.0×10⁻⁷). The results suggest a pivotal role of non-sex-specific cancer as a nonlinear modulator of survival in this sample that increases the risk of death of the ApoE4 carriers by 150% (p = 5.3×10⁻⁸) compared to the non-carriers. This risk explains the 4.2 year shorter life expectancy of the e4 carriers compared to the non-carriers in this sample. The analyses suggest the existence of age- and gender-sensitive systemic mechanisms linking the e4 allele to lifespan which can non-additively interfere with cancer-related mechanisms.

Discovering genetic origins of healthspan and lifespan could lead to breakthroughs in increasing the years of healthy and long life. In this paper we characterize the association of the e4 allele of the well-studied ApoE gene with lifespan in two generations of participants of large longitudinal studies, the Framingham Heart Study and the Long Life Family Study, and investigate the role of major human diseases such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders in this association. This wide range of systemic analyses is possible given the large sample with directly genotyped ApoE polymorphism available from these studies (N = 9841, with 2557 deaths). The analyses show that women's lifespan is more sensitive to the e4 allele than men's in these populations. However, the strongly adverse effect of the e4 allele is not observed for all women, but only for those 70 to 95 years old. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders do not mediate the association of the e4 allele with lifespan. However, cancer, but not cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases, non-additively enhances this effect resulting in 4.2 years of difference in mean lifespan for the e4 allele carriers compared to the non-carriers.

Determinants of premature mortality in a city population: an eight-year observational study concerning subjects aged 18-64

BACKGROUND

Premature deaths constitute 31.1% of all deaths in Łódź. Analysis of the causes of premature deaths may be helpful in the evaluation of health risk factors. Moreover, findings of this study may enhance prophylactic measures.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In 2001, 1857 randomly selected citizens, aged 18-64, were included in the Countrywide Integrated Noncommunicable Diseases Intervention (CINDI) Programme. In 2009, a follow-up study was conducted and information on the subjects of the study was collected concerning their health status and if they continued to live in Łódź. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for evaluation of hazard coefficients. We adjusted our calculations for age and sex. The analysis revealed statistically significant associations between the number of premature deaths of the citizens of Łódź and the following variables: a negative self-evaluation of health - HR = 3.096 (95% CI: 1.729-5.543), poor financial situation - HR = 2.811 (95% CI: 1.183-6.672), occurring in the year preceding the study: coronary pain - HR = 2.754 (95% CI: 1.167-6.494), depression - HR = 2.001 (95% CI: 1.222-3.277) and insomnia - HR = 1.660 (95% CI: 1.029-2.678). Our research study also found a negative influence of smoking on the health status - HR = 2.782 (95% CI: 1.581-4.891). Moreover, we conducted survival analyses according to sex and age with Kaplan-Meier curves.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors leading to premature deaths were found to be highly significant but possible to reduce by modifying lifestyle-related health behaviours. The confirmed determinants of premature mortality indicate a need to spread and intensify prophylactic activities in Poland, which is a post-communist country, in particular, in the field of cardiovascular diseases.

Families Enriched for Exceptional Longevity also have Increased Health-Span: Findings from the Long Life Family Study

Hypothesizing that members of families enriched for longevity delay morbidity compared to population controls and approximate the health-span of centenarians, we compared the health-spans of older generation subjects of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) to controls without family history of longevity and to centenarians of the New England Centenarian Study (NECS) using Bayesian parametric survival analysis. We estimated hazard ratios, the ages at which specific percentiles of subjects had onsets of diseases, and the gain of years of disease-free survival in the different cohorts compared to referent controls. Compared to controls, LLFS subjects had lower hazards for cancer, cardiovascular disease, severe dementia, diabetes, hypertension, osteoporosis, and stroke. The age at which 20% of the LLFS siblings and probands had one or more age-related diseases was approximately 10 years later than NECS controls. While female NECS controls generally delayed the onset of age-related diseases compared with males controls, these gender differences became much less in the older generation of the LLFS and disappeared amongst the centenarians of the NECS. The analyses demonstrate extended health-span in the older subjects of the LLFS and suggest that this aging cohort provides an important resource to discover genetic and environmental factors that promote prolonged health-span in addition to longer life-span.