Improving Cervical Precancer Surveillance: Validity of Claims-Based Prediction Models in ICD-9 and ICD-10 Eras

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact on Cervical Precancers in a Low-Vaccination Population

INTRODUCTION

Demonstrating human papillomavirus vaccine impact is critical for informing guidelines to increase vaccination and decrease human papillomavirus‒related outcomes, particularly in states with suboptimal vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee. This study examines the trends in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18-39 years and the subset of women who were screened for cervical cancer.

METHODS

Using a validated claims-based model to identify incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grades 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ events, annual age group‒specific incidence rates from Tennessee Medicaid billing data, 2008-2018, were calculated. Significant trends were determined by Joinpoint. Analyses were conducted in 2020.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2018, high-grade cervical lesion incidence significantly declined in women aged 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -31.9, 95% CI= -38.6, -24.6), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -12.9, 95% CI= -22.3, -2.4), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -6.4, 95% CI= -8.1, -4.6). Among screened women, rates significantly declined for ages 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -20.3, 95% CI= -25.3, -15.0), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -10.2, 95% CI= -12.6, -7.8), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -2.6, 95% CI= -3.9, -1.2). Trends from 2008 to 2018 were stable for older age groups (30-34 and 35-39 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Results show reductions in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among ages most likely to have benefited from the human papillomavirus vaccine. Declines among young, screened women suggest causes other than reduction in screening. Evidence of vaccine impact in populations with low-vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee, is promising.

Cervical Cancer Screening Among Medicaid Patients During Natural Disasters and the COVID-19 Pandemic in Puerto Rico, 2016 to 2020

This cohort study examines rates of cervical cancer screening in Puerto Rico among women with Medicaid health coverage following the 2017 hurricanes, earthquakes in late 2019-2020, and the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown.

The Impact of the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine on High-Grade Cervical Lesions in Urban and Rural Areas: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Simple Summary

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination disparities between urban and rural regions may moderate the vaccine’s impact on reducing cervical precancer (CIN2+) and cancer incidence. We assessed population-level trends in CIN2+ incidence (2008–2018) in urban and rural areas among Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18–39 years in Tennessee, United States. A sub-group analysis among women screened for cervical cancer was conducted to control for changing screening trends. CIN2+ incidence among young women aged 18–20 and 21–24 years, who most likely benefited from the HPV vaccine, declined similarly between urban and rural areas, although significant declines began earlier in urban versus rural areas. Our results suggest evidence of HPV vaccine impact regardless of urbanicity but demonstrate lagged impact in rural areas. These findings emphasize the importance of reducing barriers to HPV vaccination, particularly in rural areas, to improve the reduction of cervical precancer and cancer incidence, toward the World Health Organization’s goals of eliminating cervical cancer.

Abstract

Disparities in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination exist between urban (metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)) and rural (non-MSAs) regions. To address whether the HPV vaccine’s impact differs by urbanicity, we examined trends in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 or 3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (collectively, CIN2+) incidence in MSAs and non-MSAs among Tennessee Medicaid (TennCare)-enrolled women aged 18–39 years and among the subset screened for cervical cancer in Tennessee, United States. Using TennCare claims data, we identified annual age-group-specific (18–20, 21–24, 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 years) CIN2+ incidence (2008–2018). Joinpoint regression was used to identify trends over time. Age–period–cohort Poisson regression models were used to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. All analyses were stratified by urbanicity (MSA versus non-MSA). From 2008–2018, 11,243 incident CIN2+ events (7956 in MSAs; 3287 in non-MSAs) were identified among TennCare-enrolled women aged 18–39 years. CIN2+ incident trends (2008–2018) were similar between women in MSAs and non-MSAs, with largest declines among ages 18–20 (MSA average annual percent change (AAPC): −30.4, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): −35.4, −25.0; non-MSA AAPC: −30.9, 95%CI: −36.8, −24.5) and 21–24 years (MSA AAPC: −14.8, 95%CI: −18.1, −11.3; non-MSA AAPC: −15.1, 95%CI: −17.9, −12.2). Significant declines for ages 18–20 years began in 2008 in MSAs compared to 2010 in non-MSAs. Trends were largely driven by age and cohort effects. These patterns were consistent among screened women. Despite evidence of HPV vaccine impact on reducing CIN2+ incidence regardless of urbanicity, significant declines in CIN2+ incidence were delayed in non-MSAs versus MSAs.