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Brizzi A, Kagaayi J, Ssekubugu R, Abeler-Dörner L, Blenkinsop A, Bonsall D, Chang LW, Fraser C, Galiwango RM, Kigozi G, Kyle I, Monod M, Nakigozi G, Nalugoda F, Rosen JG, Laeyendecker O, Quinn TC, Grabowski MK, Reynolds SJ, Ratmann O. Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.04.21.24306145. [PMID: 38712115 PMCID: PMC11071606 DOI: 10.1101/2024.04.21.24306145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2024]
Abstract
Introduction To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating. Methods We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia concentrates. Results Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 and men aged 30-34 were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or had already achieved 95-95-95 targets. Conclusions The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Brizzi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | - David Bonsall
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genomics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Larry W. Chang
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Imogen Kyle
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mélodie Monod
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Joseph G. Rosen
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Oliver Laeyendecker
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Thomas C. Quinn
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - M. Kate Grabowski
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Steven J. Reynolds
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Monod M, Brizzi A, Galiwango RM, Ssekubugu R, Chen Y, Xi X, Kankaka EN, Ssempijja V, Abeler-Dörner L, Akullian A, Blenkinsop A, Bonsall D, Chang LW, Dan S, Fraser C, Golubchik T, Gray RH, Hall M, Jackson JC, Kigozi G, Laeyendecker O, Mills LA, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Santelli J, Sewankambo NK, Spencer SEF, Ssekasanvu J, Thomson L, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Kagaayi J, Grabowski MK, Ratmann O. Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda. Nat Microbiol 2024; 9:35-54. [PMID: 38052974 PMCID: PMC10769880 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01530-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mélodie Monod
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Andrea Brizzi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Yu Chen
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Xiaoyue Xi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Edward Nelson Kankaka
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Research Department, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Rakai, Uganda
| | - Victor Ssempijja
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA
- Statistics Department, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Rakai, Uganda
| | | | | | | | - David Bonsall
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genomics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Larry W Chang
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Shozen Dan
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tanya Golubchik
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ronald H Gray
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Matthew Hall
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jade C Jackson
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Oliver Laeyendecker
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lisa A Mills
- Division of Global HIV and TB, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Thomas C Quinn
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Steven J Reynolds
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - John Santelli
- Population and Family Health and Pediatrics, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Nelson K Sewankambo
- College of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Joseph Ssekasanvu
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Laura Thomson
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Maria J Wawer
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David Serwadda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- College of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Peter Godfrey-Faussett
- Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - M Kate Grabowski
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Monod M, Brizzi A, Galiwango RM, Ssekubugu R, Chen Y, Xi X, Kankaka EN, Ssempijja V, Dörner LA, Akullian A, Blenkinsop A, Bonsall D, Chang LW, Dan S, Fraser C, Golubchik T, Gray RH, Hall M, Jackson JC, Kigozi G, Laeyendecker O, Mills LA, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Santelli J, Sewankambo NK, Spencer SE, Ssekasanvu J, Thomson L, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Kagaayi J, Grabowski MK, Ratmann O. Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.03.16.23287351. [PMID: 36993261 PMCID: PMC10055554 DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.16.23287351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.
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Mapangisana T, Machekano R, Kouamou V, Maposhere C, McCarty K, Mudzana M, Munyati S, Mutsvangwa J, Manasa J, Shamu T, Bogoshi M, Israelski D, Katzenstein D. Viral load care of HIV-1 infected children and adolescents: A longitudinal study in rural Zimbabwe. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0245085. [PMID: 33444325 PMCID: PMC7808638 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2020] [Accepted: 12/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Maintaining virologic suppression of children and adolescents on ART in rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa is challenging. We explored switching drug regimens to protease inhibitor (PI) based treatment and reducing nevirapine and zidovudine use in a differentiated community service delivery model in rural Zimbabwe. METHODS From 2016 through 2018, we followed 306 children and adolescents on ART in Hurungwe, Zimbabwe at Chidamoyo Christian Hospital, which provides compact ART regimens at 8 dispersed rural community outreach sites. Viral load testing was performed (2016) by Roche and at follow-up (2018) by a point of care viral load assay. Virologic failure was defined as viral load ≥1,000 copies/ml. A logistic regression model which included demographics, treatment regimens and caregiver's characteristics was used to assess risks for virologic failure and loss to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS At baseline in 2016, 296 of 306 children and adolescents (97%) were on first-line ART, and only 10 were receiving a PI-based regimen. The median age was 12 years (IQR 8-15) and 55% were female. Two hundred and nine (68%) had viral load suppression (<1,000 copies/ml) and 97(32%) were unsuppressed (viral load ≥1000). At follow-up in 2018, 42/306 (14%) were either transferred 23 (7%) or LTFU 17 (6%) and 2 had died. In 2018, of the 264 retained in care, 107/264 (41%), had been switched to second-line, ritonavir-boosted PI with abacavir as a new nucleotide analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI). Overall viral load suppression increased from 68% in 2016 to 81% in 2018 (P<0.001). CONCLUSION Viral load testing, and switching to second-line, ritonavir-boosted PI with abacavir significantly increased virologic suppression among HIV-infected children and adolescents in rural Zimbabwe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tichaona Mapangisana
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Stellenbosch, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Rhoderick Machekano
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Stellenbosch, Cape Town, South Africa
- Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Vinie Kouamou
- Department of Medicine, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | | | | | - Shungu Munyati
- Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Justen Manasa
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
- African Institute for Biomedical Sciences and Technology, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Tinei Shamu
- Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Mampedi Bogoshi
- Gilead Sciences Inc., Foster City, California, United States of America
| | - Dennis Israelski
- Gilead Sciences Inc., Foster City, California, United States of America
| | - David Katzenstein
- Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
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