Under-reporting of tobacco use among Bangladeshi women in England

Tax revenue lost due to illicit cigarettes in South Africa: 2002-2022

OBJECTIVE

To estimate lost excise and value-added tax (VAT) revenue as a result of illicit cigarette trade from 2002 to 2022.

DESIGN

Using gap analysis, we estimated the number of illicit cigarettes by calculating the difference between the number of self-reported cigarettes (derived from nationally representative surveys) and the number of legal (tax-paid) cigarettes (derived from government sources) from 2002 to 2022. We then calculated the excise and VAT revenue that the government lost through illicit trade, taking into account that some people would have quit or reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (ie, tax paid).

SETTING

South Africa.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Illicit trade estimates and lost revenue estimates.

RESULTS

The illicit cigarette market comprised 5% of the market in 2009, peaked at 60% in 2021, and decreased to 58% in 2022. Accounting for the fact that some people would have reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (had the illicit marke not existed), the government lost R15 billion in excise revenue and R3 billion in VAT revenue in 2022. From 2002 to 2022, the government lost R119 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue. The majority of the lost revenue occurred in the period 2010 to 2022, where R110 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue was lost. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis indicates that the estimated lost revenue of R119 billion from 2002 to 2022 falls within the range of R65 billion to R130 billion (all 2022 prices).

CONCLUSIONS

The South African government has been losing a significant amount of revenue by not receiving excise and VAT from all cigarettes consumed in South Africa. This trend is likely to continue if the government does not secure the supply chain from the point of production to the point of sale.

The temporary ban on tobacco sales in South Africa: lessons for endgame strategies

BACKGROUND

The endgame literature recommends that, for a tobacco sales ban to be successful, several demand-side preconditions (eg, low prevalence and effective cessation support) should be in place. The South African Government imposed a ban on the sale of all tobacco and vaping products between 27 March and 17 August 2020, as part of the COVID-19 lockdown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess how cigarette smokers responded to the sales ban, to evaluate how the ban impacted the cigarette market in South Africa and to use the South African experience to inform endgame planning.

METHODS

Regular preban cigarette smokers completed an online questionnaire from 4 to 19 June 2020 (n=23 631), in which they reported on their prelockdown cigarette smoking patterns, quitting behaviour (if relevant) and smoking behaviour during the ban.

RESULTS

About 9% of prelockdown smokers in the sample successfully quit smoking. 93% of continuing smokers purchased cigarettes despite the sales ban. The average price of cigarettes increased by 250% relative to prelockdown prices. Most respondents purchased cigarettes through informal channels.

CONCLUSIONS

The demand-side preconditions for an effective sales ban were not in place in South Africa, making a sales ban inappropriate. The South African experience suggests that supply-side factors are also important in ensuring the success of a sales ban. These are: (1) the illicit market must be under control before implementing a sales ban; and (2) an effective sales ban needs to be synchronised with a ban on the manufacture, transport and distribution of cigarettes.

Social desirability and under-reporting of smokeless tobacco use among reproductive age women: Evidence from National Family Health Survey

Introduction

This study hypothesises that the presence of a third person during the interaction between the survey investigator and the woman respondent leads to underreporting of smokeless tobacco (SLT) use by Indian women, including pregnant and breastfeeding women.

Methods

Cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015-16 was analysed for SLT use among women aged 15-49. Multivariate logistic regression examined the odds of SLT use reporting by women respondents in the presence of their husbands and other male or female adults.

Results

SLT use reporting by women significantly varied by the presence of someone during the interview. The analysis shows that the odds of reporting SLT use among women who were neither pregnant nor lactating was 20.6% lower when they were interviewed in the presence of their husbands than when they were interviewed alone. Similarly, compared to those interviewed alone, the odds of women reporting SLT use was 16.5% lower among pregnant and breastfeeding women interviewed in the presence of any adult female. The odds of women under-reporting SLT use were higher in Central and Western India.

Conclusions

This study argues that the current survey estimates misconstrue the authentic prevalence of tobacco use among women in India, including pregnant and lactating women. Due to social desirability or the presence of a third person during the survey interview, those respondents who do not report their tobacco use status are also more likely to forego essential support for successful tobacco cessation. Survey methodology must be strengthened to avert the presence of a third person during the interview to ensure better reporting and population health estimates.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa

There are several ways to measure the illicit cigarette market. In South Africa, different methods were used to triangulate results. The aim of this paper is to assist researchers to decide which method is most suitable to their context, especially for countries that do not have security features on cigarette packs (eg, tax stamps). We analysed the methods and results from three published articles that used various approaches to measure cigarette illicit trade in South Africa: (1) gap analysis, (2) price threshold method using secondary data from a national survey, and (3) price threshold method using primary data collected in low socioeconomic areas. We provide methodological insights and background information. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The method chosen by researchers will depend on data availability, the existence or absence of security features on cigarette packs and funding. Researchers investigating illicit trade should use more than one method to increase confidence in the obtained results.

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

Background

We estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in low socioeconomic areas in South Africa before and after a tax increase. In 2018, the real excise tax increased by 3% and the value-added tax (VAT) rate increased from 14% to 15%. Thus, the real tax on cigarettes increased by 4%.

Methods

A total of 2427 smokers were interviewed over two rounds of data collection (1234 before the tax increase and 1193 after). Data were collected in six townships across four of South Africa’s nine provinces. Smokers were asked about their most recent cigarette purchase. Cigarettes purchased for R1 (US$0.08) or less per stick are presumed illicit, based on a threshold price, which includes production costs and taxes.

Results

In 2017 and 2018 respectively, 34.6% and 36.4% of smokers in the sample purchased illicit cigarettes. The increase in the proportion of illicit purchases was not statistically significant. Smokers with relatively low socioeconomic status, those who have low levels of education and those who are older or unemployed are most likely to purchase illicit cigarettes.

Conclusions

The illicit cigarette trade in South African townships is widespread. The government should implement an independent track and trace system to curb tax evasion. This would reduce the availability of illicit cigarettes, improve public health and increase excise tax collection.

Illicit cigarette trade in South Africa: 2002-2017

BACKGROUND

Increasing cigarette excise taxes is widely recognised as the most effective measure to reduce the demand for cigarettes. The presence of illicit trade undermines the effectiveness of tax increases as both a public health and a fiscal measure, because it introduces cheaper alternatives to legal, full-priced cigarettes.

OBJECTIVE

To assess trends in the size of the illicit cigarette market in South Africa from 2002 to 2017 using gap analysis.

METHODS

Tax-paid cigarette sales are compared with consumption estimates from two nationally representative surveys: the All Media and Products Survey and the National Income Dynamics Study. We explore the size of the illicit cigarette market and its changes over the period 2002-2017.

RESULTS

Since 2009, illicit trade has increased sharply. We estimate that illicit trade is between 30% and 35% of the total market in 2017. The acceleration in the growth of the illicit market since 2015 corresponds with a turbulent time at the South African Revenue Service, when many of the enforcement functions were greatly reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

The current levels of illicit trade are extremely high and need to be addressed urgently by implementing effective control mechanisms such as a track and trace system to monitor the production, taxation, and sale of cigarettes.

Misclassification of smoking habits: An updated review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Misclassification of smoking habits leads to underestimation of true relationships between diseases and active smoking, and overestimation of true relationships with passive smoking. Information on misclassification rates can be obtained from studies using cotinine as a marker.

AIM

To estimate overall misclassification rates based on a review and meta-analysis of the available evidence, and to investigate how misclassification rates depend on other factors.

METHODS

We searched for studies using cotinine as a marker which involved at least 200 participants and which provided information on high cotinine levels in self-reported non-, never, or ex-smokers or on low levels in self-reported smokers. We estimated overall misclassification rates weighted on sample size and investigated heterogeneity by various study characteristics. Misclassification rates were calculated for two cotinine cut points to distinguish smokers and non-smokers, the higher cut point intended to distinguish regular smoking.

RESULTS

After avoiding double counting, 226 reports provided 294 results from 205 studies. A total of 115 results were from North America, 128 from Europe, 25 from Asia and 26 from other countries. A study on 6.2 million life insurance applicants was considered separately. Based on the lower cut point, true current smokers represented 4.96% (95% CI 4.32-5.60%) of reported non-smokers, 3.00% (2.45-3.54%) of reported never smokers, and 10.92% (9.23-12.61%) of reported ex-smokers. As percentages of true current smokers, non-, never and ex-smokers formed, respectively, 14.50% (12.36-16.65%), 5.70% (3.20-8.20%), and 8.93% (6.57-11.29%). Reported current smokers represented 3.65% (2.84-4.45%) of true non-smokers. There was considerable heterogeneity between misclassification rates. Rates of claiming never smoking were very high in Asian women smokers, the individual studies reporting rates of 12.5%, 22.4%, 33.3%, 54.2% and 66.3%. False claims of quitting were relatively high in pregnant women, in diseased individuals who may recently have been advised to quit, and in studies considering cigarette smoking rather than any smoking. False claims of smoking were higher in younger populations. Misclassification rates were higher in more recently published studies. There was no clear evidence that rates varied by the body fluid used for the cotinine analysis, the assay method used, or whether the respondent was aware their statements would be validated by cotinine - though here many studies did not provide relevant information. There was only limited evidence that rates were lower in studies classified as being of good quality, based on the extent to which other sources of nicotine were accounted for.

CONCLUSION

It is important for epidemiologists to consider the possibility of bias due to misclassification of smoking habits, especially in circumstances where rates are likely to be high. The evidence of higher rates in more recent studies suggests that the extent of misclassification bias in studies relating passive smoking to smoking-related disease may have been underestimated.

Smoking as a risk factor for stroke in women compared with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 81 cohorts, including 3,980,359 individuals and 42,401 strokes

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It is currently unknown whether the excess risk of stroke by smoking is the same for women and men. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the effect of smoking on stroke in women compared with men.

METHODS

PubMed MEDLINE was systematically searched for prospective population-based cohort studies published between January 1, 1966, and January 26, 2013. Studies that presented sex-specific estimates of the relative risk of stroke comparing current smoking with nonsmoking and its associated variability were selected. The sex-specific relative risks and their ratio (RRR), comparing women with men, were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis with inverse variance weighting. Similarly, the RRR for former versus never smoking was pooled.

RESULTS

Data from 81 prospective cohort studies that included 3,980,359 individuals and 42,401 strokes were available. Smoking was an independent risk factor for stroke in both sexes. Overall, the pooled multiple-adjusted RRR indicated a similar risk of stroke associated with smoking in women compared with men (RRR, 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.13]). In a regional analysis, there was evidence of a more harmful effect of smoking in women than in men in Western (RRR, 1.10 [1.02-1.18)] but not in Asian (RRR, 0.97 [0.87-1.09]) populations. Compared with never-smokers, the beneficial effects of quitting smoking among former smokers on stroke risk were similar between the sexes (RRR, 1.10 [0.99-1.22]).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with nonsmokers, the excess risk of stroke is at least as great among women who smoke compared with men who smoke.