Reliability of the ICRP'S dose coefficients for members of the public: IV. basis of the human alimentary tract model and uncertainties in model predictions

Parameter uncertainty analysis of the equivalent lung dose coefficient for the intake of radon in mines: A review

Radon presents significant health risks due to its short-lived progeny. The evaluation of the equivalent lung dose coefficient is crucial for assessing the potential health effects of radon exposure. This review focuses on the uncertainty analysis of the parameters associated with the calculation of the equivalent lung dose coefficient attributed to radon inhalation in mines. This analysis is complex due to various factors, such as geological conditions, ventilation rates, and occupational practices. The literature review systematically examines the sources of radon and its health effects among underground miners. It also discusses the human respiratory tract model used to calculate the equivalent lung dose coefficient and the associated parameters leading to uncertainties in the calculated lung dose. Additionally, the review covers the different methodologies employed for uncertainty quantification and their implications on dose assessment. The text discusses challenges and limitations in current research practices and provides recommendations for future studies. Accurate risk assessment and effective safety measures in mining environments require understanding and mitigating parameter uncertainties.

Dose Coefficients for Internal Dose Assessments for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

ABSTRACT

This paper presents values as well as the bases for calculating internal dose coefficients suitable for estimating organ doses from the exposure to radioactive fallout that could result from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. The 34 radionuclides discussed are the same as those given in a priority list of radionuclides for fallout dose assessments presented in a companion overview paper. The radionuclides discussed are those that are believed to account for a preponderance of the organ doses that might be received by intake by persons of all ages (including in utero and via breast feeding for infants) following exposure to radioactive fallout. The presented dose coefficients for ingestion account for age and include modifications for variations in solubility with distance as discussed previously in the literature, and those for inhalation similarly account for age, solubility, and particle sizes that would be relevant at various distances of exposure as discussed in a companion paper on ingestion dose methods. The proposed modifications peculiar to radioactive fallout account for systematic changes in solubility and particle sizes with distance from the site of detonation, termed here as the region of "local fallout" and the region "beyond local fallout." Brief definitions of these regions are provided here with more detailed discussion in a companion paper on estimating deposition of fallout radionuclides. This paper provides the dose coefficients for ingestion and inhalation (for particle sizes of 1 μm, 5 μm, 10 μm, and 20 μm) for the region "local fallout." These dose coefficients for "local fallout" are specific for particles formed in a nuclear explosion that can be large and have radionuclides, particularly the more refractory ones, distributed throughout the volume where the radionuclide has reduced solubility. The dose coefficients for the region "beyond local fallout" are assumed to be the ones published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1995. Comparisons of the presented dose coefficients are made with values published by the ICRP.

Uncertainty quantification of bioassay functions for the internal dosimetry of radioiodine

Bioassay functions, which are provided by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, are used to estimate the intake activity of radionuclides; however, they include considerable uncertainties in terms of the internal dosimetry for a particular individual. During a practical internal dose assessment, the uncertainty in the bioassay function is generally not introduced because of the difficulty in quantification. Therefore, to clarify the existence of uncertainty in the bioassay function and provide dosimetrists with an insight into this uncertainty, this study attempted to quantify the uncertainty in the thyroid retention function used for radioiodine exposure. The uncertainty was quantified using a probabilistic estimation of the thyroid retention function through the propagation of the distribution of biokinetic parameters by the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The uncertainties in the thyroid retention function, expressed in terms of the scattering factor, were in the ranges of 1.55-1.60 and 1.40-1.50 for within 24 h and after 24 h, respectively. In addition, the thyroid retention function within 24 h was compared with actual measurement data to confirm the uncertainty due to the use of first-order kinetics in the biokinetic model calculation. Significantly higher thyroid uptakes (by a factor of 1.9) were observed in the actual measurements. This study indicates that consideration of the uncertainty in the thyroid retention function can avoid a significant over- and under-estimation of the internal dose, particularly when a high dose is predicted.

Uncertainty analysis in internal dose calculations for cerium considering the uncertainties of biokinetic parameters and S values

Radioactive cerium and other lanthanides can be transported through the aquatic system into foodstuffs and then be incorporated by humans. Information on the uncertainty of reported dose coefficients for exposed members of the public is then needed for risk analysis. In this study, uncertainties of dose coefficients due to the ingestion of the radionuclides 141Ce and 144Ce were estimated. According to the schema of internal dose calculation, a general statistical method based on the propagation of uncertainty was developed. The method takes into account the uncertainties contributed by the biokinetic models and by the so-called S values. These S-values were derived by using Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations with five adult non-reference voxel computational phantoms that have been developed at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Germany. Random and Latin hypercube sampling techniques were applied to sample parameters of biokinetic models and S values. The uncertainty factors, expressed as the square root of the 97.5th and 2.5th percentile ratios, for organ equivalent dose coefficients of 141Ce were found to be in the range of 1.2-5.1 and for 144Ce in the range of 1.2-7.4. The uncertainty factor of the detriment-weighted dose coefficient for 141Ce is 2.5 and for 144Ce 3.9. It is concluded that a general statistical method for calculating the uncertainty of dose coefficients was developed and applied to the lanthanide cerium. The dose uncertainties obtained provide improved dose coefficients for radiation risk analysis of humans. Furthermore, these uncertainties can be used to identify those parameters most important in internal dose calculations by applying sensitivity analyses.

ICRP Publication 130: Occupational Intakes of Radionuclides: Part 1

This report is the first in a series of reports replacing Publications 30 and 68 to provide revised dose coefficients for occupational intakes of radionuclides by inhalation and ingestion. The revised dose coefficients have been calculated using the Human Alimentary Tract Model (Publication 100) and a revision of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (Publication 66) that takes account of more recent data. In addition, information is provided on absorption into blood following inhalation and ingestion of different chemical forms of elements and their radioisotopes. In selected cases, it is judged that the data are sufficient to make material-specific recommendations. Revisions have been made to many of the models that describe the systemic biokinetics of radionuclides absorbed into blood, making them more physiologically realistic representations of uptake and retention in organs and tissues, and excretion. The reports in this series provide data for the interpretation of bioassay measurements as well as dose coefficients, replacing Publications 54 and 78. In assessing bioassay data such as measurements of whole-body or organ content, or urinary excretion, assumptions have to be made about the exposure scenario, including the pattern and mode of radionuclide intake, physical and chemical characteristics of the material involved, and the elapsed time between the exposure(s) and measurement. This report provides some guidance on monitoring programmes and data interpretation.

Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS.

Performance assessment and uncertainty evaluation of a portable NaI-based detection system used for thyroid monitoring

This work aims at assessing the performance of a portable detection system, equipped with an NaI(Tl) scintillation detector for in vivo thyroid monitoring, which was properly calibrated using an anthropomorphic neck phantom. The anthropomorphic physical phantoms commonly used for the efficiency calibration of in vivo counters often present certain limitations regarding the geometry and the activity distribution. Therefore, the feasibility of these detection systems for in vivo monitoring should be assessed whenever possible. To accomplish this assessment, patients to whom (99m)Tc and (123)I marked radiopharmaceuticals have been administered in the framework of nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures were monitored. As the biokinetic models of the administered radiopharmaceuticals are known, the time-dependent activity functions in the critical organs after administration are easily quantified. The measured activities in the thyroid using the NaI(Tl) scintillation detector were compared with the estimated activities using the biokinetic models, in order to reach conclusion about the applicability of the portable scintillation counter for in vivo thyroid monitoring. The state-of-the-art Monte Carlo computer program PENELOPE and two voxel phantoms (male and female) were used to evaluate the overall uncertainties influencing the thyroid monitoring. A computational parametric study was performed to quantify the influence of several parameters in the activity quantification (neck-detector distance, thyroid shape, thyroid size and overlying tissue thickness), which allowed one to gain insight and to better understand the discrepancies between the calculated and measured activities.

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part I, parameter uncertainty analysis

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential in internal dose assessments and radiation risk analysis for the public, occupational workers, and patients exposed to radionuclides. In this paper, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part of the study published here, the uncertainty sources of the model parameters for zirconium (Zr), developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), were identified and analyzed. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the biokinetic experimental measurement performed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) for developing a new biokinetic model of Zr was analyzed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. The confidence interval and distribution of model parameters of the ICRP and HMGU Zr biokinetic models were evaluated. As a result of computer biokinetic modelings, the mean, standard uncertainty, and confidence interval of model prediction calculated based on the model parameter uncertainty were presented and compared to the plasma clearance and urinary excretion measured after intravenous administration. It was shown that for the most important compartment, the plasma, the uncertainty evaluated for the HMGU model was much smaller than that for the ICRP model; that phenomenon was observed for other organs and tissues as well. The uncertainty of the integral of the radioactivity of Zr up to 50 y calculated by the HMGU model after ingestion by adult members of the public was shown to be smaller by a factor of two than that of the ICRP model. It was also shown that the distribution type of the model parameter strongly influences the model prediction, and the correlation of the model input parameters affects the model prediction to a certain extent depending on the strength of the correlation. In the case of model prediction, the qualitative comparison of the model predictions with the measured plasma and urinary data showed the HMGU model to be more reliable than the ICRP model; quantitatively, the uncertainty model prediction by the HMGU systemic biokinetic model is smaller than that of the ICRP model. The uncertainty information on the model parameters analyzed in this study was used in the second part of the paper regarding a sensitivity analysis of the Zr biokinetic models.

Uranium speciation in drinking water from drilled wells in southern Finland and its potential links to health effects

Exceptionally high concentrations of natural uranium have been found in drinking water originating from drilled wells in Southern Finland. However, no clear clinical symptoms have been observed among the exposed population. Hence a question arose as to whether uranium speciation could be one reason for the lack of significant adverse health effects. Uranium species were determined using time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy. We performed multi-element chemical analyses in these water samples, and predictive calculations were carried out using up-to-date thermodynamic data. The results indicated good agreement between measurements and modeling. The low toxicity of Finnish bedrockwater may be due to the predominance of two calcium-dependent species, Ca2UO2(CO3)3(aq) and CaUO2(CO3)3(2-), whose nontoxicity for cells has been described previously. This interdisciplinary study describes chemical speciation of drinking water with elevated uranium concentrations and the potential consequence on health. From these results, it appears that modeling could be used for a better understanding of uranium toxicity of drinking water in the event of contamination.