One thousand health-related quality-of-life estimates

Impact of perioperative diagnostic tools on clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness in parathyroid surgery: a decision model-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

Preoperative and intraoperative diagnostic tools influence the surgical management of primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT), whereby their performance of classification varies considerably for the two common causes of PHPT: solitary adenomas and multiglandular disease. A consensus on the use of such diagnostic tools for optimal perioperative management of all PHPT patients has not been reached.

DESIGN

A decision tree model was constructed to estimate and compare the clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of preoperative imaging modalities and intraoperative parathyroid hormone (ioPTH) monitoring criteria in a 21-year time horizon with a 3% discount rate. The robustness of the model was assessed by conducting a one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

SETTING

The US healthcare system.

POPULATION

A hypothetical population consisting of 5000 patients with sporadic, symptomatic or asymptomatic PHPT.

INTERVENTIONS

Preoperative and intraoperative diagnostic modalities for parathyroidectomy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), net monetary benefits (NMBs) and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, four-dimensional (4D) CT was the least expensive strategy with US$10 276 and 15.333 QALYs. Ultrasound and 99mTc-Sestamibi single-photon-emission CT/CT were both dominated strategies while 18F-fluorocholine positron emission tomography was cost-effective with an NMB of US$416 considering a willingness to pay a threshold of US$95 958. The application of ioPTH monitoring with the Vienna criterion decreased the rate of reoperations from 10.50 to 0.58 per 1000 patients compared to not using ioPTH monitoring. Due to an increased rate of bilateral neck explorations from 257.45 to 347.45 per 1000 patients, it was not cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

4D-CT is the most cost-effective modality for the preoperative localisation of solitary parathyroid adenomas and multiglandular disease. The use of ioPTH monitoring is not cost-effective, but to minimise clinical complications, the Miami criterion should be applied for suspected solitary adenomas and the Vienna criterion for multiglandular disease.

Cataloging health state utility estimates for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and related conditions

BACKGROUND

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a genetic disease resulting in progressive muscle weakness, loss of ambulation, and cardiorespiratory complications. Direct estimation of health-related quality of life for patients with DMD is challenging, highlighting the need for proxy measures. This study aims to catalog and compare existing published health state utility estimates for DMD and related conditions.

METHODS

Using two search strategies, relevant utilities were extracted from the Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, including health states, utility estimates, and study and patient characteristics. Analysis One identified health states with comparable utility estimates to a set of published US patient population utility estimates for DMD. A minimal clinically important difference of ± 0.03 was applied to each DMD utility estimate to establish a range, and the registry was searched to identify other health states with associated utilities that fell within each range. Analysis Two used pre-defined search terms to identify health states clinically similar to DMD. Mapping was based on the degree of clinical similarity.

RESULTS

Analysis One identified 4,308 unique utilities across 2,322 cost-effectiveness publications. The health states captured a wide range of acute and chronic conditions; 34% of utility records were extrapolated for US populations (n = 1,451); 1% were related to pediatric populations (n = 61). Analysis Two identified 153 utilities with health states clinically similar to DMD. The median utility estimates varied among identified health states. Health states similar to the early non-ambulatory DMD phase exhibited the greatest difference between the median estimate of the sample (0.39) and the existing estimate from published literature (0.21).

CONCLUSIONS

When available estimates are limited, using novel search strategies to identify utilities of clinically similar conditions could be an approach for overcoming the information gap. However, it requires careful evaluation of the utility instruments, tariffs, and raters (proxy or self).

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel resistance genotype testing after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a systematic review and economic model

Background

Stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients are at increased risk of secondary vascular events. Antiplatelet medications, most commonly clopidogrel, are prescribed to reduce this risk. Factors including CYP2C19 genetic variants can hinder clopidogrel metabolism. Laboratory-based or point-of-care tests can detect these variants, enabling targeted treatment.

Objective

To assess the effectiveness of genetic testing to identify clopidogrel resistance in people with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Specific objectives: Do people tested for clopidogrel resistance, and treated accordingly, have a reduced risk of secondary vascular events? Do people with loss-of-function alleles associated with clopidogrel resistance have a reduced risk of secondary vascular events if treated with alternative interventions compared to clopidogrel? Do people with loss-of-function alleles associated with clopidogrel resistance have an increased risk of secondary vascular events when treated with clopidogrel? What is the accuracy of point-of-care tests for detecting variants associated with clopidogrel resistance? What is the technical performance and cost of CYP2C19 genetic tests? Is genetic testing for clopidogrel resistance cost-effective compared with no testing?

Design

Systematic review and economic model.

Results

Objective 1: Two studies assessed secondary vascular events in patients tested for loss-of-function alleles and treated accordingly. They found a reduced risk, but confidence intervals were wide (hazard ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 2.74 and hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 1.18). Objective 2: Seven randomised controlled trials compared clopidogrel with alternative treatment in people with genetic variants. Ticagrelor was associated with a lower risk of secondary vascular events than clopidogrel (summary hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.90; two studies). Objective 3: Twenty-five studies compared outcomes in people with and without genetic variants treated with clopidogrel. People with genetic variants were at an increased risk of secondary vascular events (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 2.08; 18 studies). There was no difference in bleeding risk (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.40; five studies). Objective 4: Eleven studies evaluated Genomadix Cube accuracy; no studies evaluated Genedrive. Summary sensitivity and specificity against laboratory reference standards were both 100% (95% confidence interval 94% to 100% and 99% to 100%). Objective 5: Seventeen studies evaluated technical performance of point-of-care tests. Test failure rate ranged from 0.4% to 19% for Genomadix Cube. A survey of 8/10 genomic laboratory hubs revealed variation in preferred technologies for testing, and cost per test ranging from £15 to £250. Most laboratories expected test failure rate to be < 1%. Additional resources could enhance testing capacity and expedite turnaround times. Objective 6: Laboratory and point-of-care CYP2C19 testing strategies were cost-saving and increase quality-adjusted life-years compared with no testing. Both strategies gave similar costs, quality-adjusted life-years and expected net monetary benefit.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that CYP2C19 testing followed by tailored treatment is likely to be effective and cost-effective in both populations.

Future work

Accuracy and technical performance of Genedrive. Test failure rate of Genomadix Cube in a National Health Service setting. Value of testing additional loss-of-function alleles. Appropriateness of treatment dichotomy based on loss-of-function alleles.

Limitations

Lack of data on Genedrive. No randomised 'test-and-treat' studies of dipyramidole plus aspirin.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022357661.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135620) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 57. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

EQ-5D-5L Population Scores in Mainland China: Results From a Nationally Representative Survey 2021

OBJECTIVES

There is a lack of monitoring changes in the population scores of the most recent version, EQ-5D-5L, in mainland China. This study aimed to address this knowledge gap by assessing the EQ-5D-5L scores in mainland China using a nationally representative sample.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2021 Survey of Health Index of Chinese Families, which covered 31 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in mainland China. The survey used a multistage quota sampling strategy encompassing 120 prefecture-level cities. Quotas were allocated to each prefecture-level city in accordance with the 2020 China Population Census. This approach resulted in a final sample of 11 030 eligible questionnaires. The utility index (UI) and EuroQol Visual Analog Scale (EQ VAS) scores were reported for the entire sample (age-gender-urban/rural weighted) and by the characteristics of the study participants.

RESULTS

The study participants had a weighted mean UI of 0.939 (SD 0.135) and EQ VAS score of 80.19 (SD 18.39). The most commonly reported problem was anxiety/depression (26.37%), whereas self-care was the least reported problem (6.18%). Those who were male, were younger, lived without chronic conditions and disabilities, had higher levels of education, earned higher monthly household income, and were covered by basic medical insurance for urban employees had higher scores in both the UI and EQ VAS.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed slightly lower UI scores despite a much higher drop in EQ VAS scores whereas China maintained minimum cases of COVID-19 in 2021 compared with the population norms recorded in 2019. Further studies are warranted to unveil the full impacts of COVID-19 outbreaks.

Quality-adjusted life years for HER2-positive, early-stage breast cancer using trastuzumab-containing regimens in the context of cost-effectiveness studies: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive, early-stage breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab-containing regimens, by focusing on both Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases without language or publication year restrictions. Two independent reviewers screened eligible studies, extracted data, and assessed methodology and reporting quality using the Drummond checklist and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS 2022), respectively. Costs were converted to US dollars (US$) for 2023 for cross-study comparison.

RESULTS

Twenty-two articles, primarily from high-income countries (HICs), were included, with ICERs ranging from US$13,176/QALY to US$254,510/QALY, falling within country-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds. A notable association was observed between higher QALYs and lower ICERs, indicating a favorable cost-effectiveness and health outcome relationship. EQ-5D was the most utilized instrument for assessing health state utility values, with diverse targeted populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies reporting higher QALYs tend to have lower ICERs, indicating a positive relationship between cost-effectiveness and health outcomes. However, challenges such as methodological heterogeneity and transparency in utility valuation persist, underscoring the need for standardized guidelines and collaborative efforts among stakeholders.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42021259826.

Fetoscopic Laser Ablation of Type II Vasa Previa: A Cost Benefit Analysis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare costs of two strategies for third-trimester type II vasa previa management: (1) fetoscopic laser ablation surgery (FLS) referral and (2) standard management (SM).

STUDY DESIGN

A decision analytic model and cost-benefit analysis from a health care perspective were performed. The population included patients with type II vasa previa at approximately 32 weeks. SM entailed 32-week antepartum admission and cesarean at approximately 35 weeks. FLS referral included consultation and possible laser surgery at 32 weeks for willing/eligible candidates. Successful laser surgery allowed the possibility of term vaginal delivery. Outcomes included antepartum admission, preterm birth, cesarean, neonatal transfusion, and death. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In base case analysis, FLS referral was cost saving compared with SM (total cost per patient $65,717.10 vs. 71,628.16). FLS referrals yielded fewer antepartum admissions, cesareans, premature births, neonatal transfusions, and deaths. Eligible referred patients choosing FLS incurred a total cost of $41,702.46, a >40% decrease compared with SM. FLS referral was cost saving in all one-way sensitivity analyses except when antepartum admission costs were low. In threshold analyses, FLS referral was cost saving unless laser surgery cost was >$39,892 (2.75x expected cost), antepartum admission cost for monitoring of vasa previa or ruptured membranes was <$7,455, <11% patients were eligible for laser surgery, and when <12% of eligible patients chose laser surgery. In two-way sensitivity analysis, FLS referral was cost saving except at very high laser surgery costs and extremely low antepartum admission costs.

CONCLUSION

Referral for FLS for type II vasa previa was cost saving and improved outcomes compared with SM, despite upfront costs, fetoscopy-related risks, and many patients being ineligible or not opting for surgery after referral.

KEY POINTS

· Vasa previa rupture may lead to fetal exsanguination and death.. · Late preterm cesarean is common practice for prenatally diagnosed vasa previa.. · Successful fetoscopic laser ablation for type II vasa previa has been described.. · Laser ablation of vasa previa allows for a safe-term vaginal delivery.. · Referral for laser surgery is cost saving and is associated with improved outcomes..

Comparison of current relative value unit-based prices and utility between common surgical procedures, including orthopedic surgeries, in South Korea

BACKGROUND

The medical pricing system strongly influences physicians' job satisfaction and patient health outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the current relative value unit (RVU)-based pricing and utility of patients in commonly performed surgical procedures in South Korea.

METHODS

Fifteen common surgical procedures were selected from OECD statistics, and three additional orthopedic procedures were examined. The current pricing of each surgical procedure was retrieved from the Korea National Health Insurance Service, and the corresponding utilities were obtained as quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains from previous studies. The relationship between the current prices (RVUs) and the patients' utility (incremental QALY gains/year) was analyzed. Subgroup analysis was performed between fatal and non-fatal procedures and between orthopedic and non-orthopedic procedures.

RESULTS

A significant negative correlation (r = - 0.558, p < 0.001) was observed between RVU and incremental QALY among all 18 procedures. The fatal subgroup had a significantly higher RVU than the non-fatal subgroup (p < 0.05), while the former had a significantly lower incremental QALY than the latter (p < 0.001). Orthopedic procedures showed higher incremental QALY values than non-orthopedic procedures, but they did not show higher prices (RVU).

CONCLUSIONS

This paradoxical relationship between current prices and patient utility is attributed to the higher pricing of surgical procedures for fatal and urgent conditions. Orthopedic surgery has been found to be a cost-effective treatment strategy. These findings could contribute to a better understanding of the potential role of incremental QALY in pursuing value-based purchasing or reasonable modification of the current medical fee schedule.

Systematic methodological review of health state values in glaucoma cost-utility analyses

IMPORTANCE

Describing the characteristics and sources of health state utility values and reporting practice in the literature of cost-utility analyses facilitates an understanding of the level of the transparency, validity, and generalizability of cost-utility analyses. Improving the quality of reporting will support investigators in describing the incremental value of emerging glaucoma interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the state of practice among published glaucoma cost-utility analysis studies, focusing on valuation of health and the quality of reporting.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

We searched several databases including Medline, CINHAL, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, Biosis previews, the Health Economic Evaluations Database, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). We included full-text, English, published cost-utility analyses of glaucoma interventions with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome measure to calculate incremental cost-utility ratios. Excluded studies were non-English language, reviews, editorials, protocols, or other types of economic studies (cost-benefit, cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness). Study characteristics, operational definitions of glaucoma health states and health state utilities were extracted. The original source of the health utility was reviewed to determine the scale of measurement and the source of preference weighting. Items from the Systematic Review of Utilities for Cost-Effectiveness (SpRUCE checklist) were used to assess the reporting and quality of health utilities in glaucoma CUA.

FINDINGS

43 CUAs were included, with 11 unique sources of health utilities. A wide range of health utilities for the same Hodapp-Parrish-Anderson glaucoma health states were reported; ocular hypertension (0.84-0.95), mild (0.68-0.94), moderate (0.57-0.92), advanced (0.58-0.88), severe/blind (0.46-0.76), and bilateral blindness (0.26-0.5). Most studies reported the basis for using health utilities (34, 79%) and any assumptions or adjustments applied to the health utilities (22, 51%). Few studies reported a framework for assessing the relevance of health utilities to a decision context (8, 19%). Even fewer (3, 7%) applied a systematic search strategy to identify health utilities and used a structured assessment of quality for inclusion. Overall, reporting has not improved over time.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This review describes that few CUAs describe important rationale for using health state utility values. Including additional details on the search, appraisal, selection, and inclusion process of health utility values improves transparency, generalizability and supports the assessment of the validity of study conclusions. Future investigations should aim to use health utilities on the same scale of measurement across health states and consider the source and relevance to the decision context/purpose of conducting that cost-utility study.

Second-Line Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

First-line treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) achieves durable remission in approximately 60% of patients. In relapsed or refractory disease, only about 20% achieve durable remission with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). The ZUMA-7 (axicabtagene ciloleucel [axi-cel]) and TRANSFORM (lisocabtagene maraleucel [liso-cel]) trials demonstrated superior event-free survival (and, in ZUMA-7, overall survival) in primary-refractory or early-relapsed (high-risk) DLBCL with chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy (CAR-T) compared with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT; however, list prices for CAR-T exceed $400 000 per infusion.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of second-line CAR-T versus salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT.

DESIGN

State-transition microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

ZUMA-7, TRANSFORM, other trials, and observational data.

TARGET POPULATION

"High-risk" patients with DLBCL.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care sector.

INTERVENTION

Axi-cel or liso-cel versus ASCT.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) in 2022 U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $200 000 per QALY.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The increase in median overall survival was 4 months for axi-cel and 1 month for liso-cel. For axi-cel, the ICER was $684 225 per QALY and the iNMB was -$107 642. For liso-cel, the ICER was $1 171 909 per QALY and the iNMB was -$102 477.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

To be cost-effective with a WTP of $200 000, the cost of CAR-T would have to be reduced to $321 123 for axi-cel and $313 730 for liso-cel. Implementation in high-risk patients would increase U.S. health care spending by approximately $6.8 billion over a 5-year period.

LIMITATION

Differences in preinfusion bridging therapies precluded cross-trial comparisons.

CONCLUSION

Neither second-line axi-cel nor liso-cel was cost-effective at a WTP of $200 000 per QALY. Clinical outcomes improved incrementally, but costs of CAR-T must be lowered substantially to enable cost-effectiveness.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

No research-specific funding.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Open Versus Endovascular Revascularization for Chronic Mesenteric Ischemia

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown a trend supporting endovascular revascularization (ER) in the treatment of chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI). However, few studies have compared the cost effectiveness of ER and open revascularization (OR) for this indication. The purpose of this study is to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing open versus ER for CMI.

METHODS

We built a Markov model with Monte Carlo microsimulation using transition probabilities and utilities from existing literature for CMI patients undergoing OR versus ER. Costs were derived from the hospital perspective using the 2020 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. The model randomized 20,000 patients to either OR or ER and allowed for 1 subsequent reintervention with 3 other intervening health states: alive, alive with complications, and dead. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were analyzed over a 5-year period. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to study the impact of parameter variability on cost effectiveness.

RESULTS

OR cost $4,532 for 1.03 QALYs while ER cost $5,092 for 1.21 QALYs, leading to an ICER of $3,037 per QALY gained in the ER arm. This ICER was less than our willingness to pay threshold of $100,000. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that our model was most sensitive to costs, mortality, and patency rates after OR and ER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated ER would be considered cost effective 99% of iterations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that while 5-year costs for ER were greater than OR, ER afforded greater QALYs than OR. Although ER is associated with lower long-term patency and higher rates of reintervention, it appears to be more cost effective than OR for the treatment of CMI.

Cost-utility analysis of genomic profiling in early breast cancer in Colombia

BACKGROUND

In Colombia, the best strategy to establish indication for adjuvant chemotherapy in early breast cancer (EBC) remains unknown. This study aimed to identify the cost-utility of Oncotype DX™ (ODX) or Mammaprint™ (MMP) tests to establish the necessity of adjuvant chemotherapy.

METHODS

This study used an adapted decision-analytic model to compare cost and outcomes of care between ODX or MMP tests and routine care without ODX or MMP tests (adjuvant chemotherapy for all patients) over a 5-year time horizon from the perspective of the Colombian National Health System (NHS; payer). Inputs were obtained from national unit cost tariffs, published literature, and clinical trial database. The study population comprised women with hormone-receptor-positive (HR +), HER2-negative, lymph-node-negative (LN0) EBC with high-risk clinical criteria for recurrence. The outcome measures were discounted incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR; 2021 United States dollar per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained) and net monetary benefit (NMB). Probabilistic (PSA) and deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) were performed.

RESULTS

ODX increases QALYs by 0.05 and MMP by 0.03 with savings of $2374 and $554 compared with the standard strategy, respectively, and were cost-saving in cost-utility plane. NMB for ODX was $2203 and for MMP was $416. Both tests dominate the standard strategy. Sensitivity analysis revealed that with a threshold of 1 gross domestic product per capita, ODX will be cost-effective in 95.5% of the cases compared with 70.2% cases involving MMP.DSA showed that the variable with significant influence was the monthly cost of adjuvant chemotherapy. PSA revealed that ODX was a consistently superior strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomic profiling using ODX or MMP tests to define the need of adjuvant chemotherapy treatment in patients with HR + and HER2 -EBC is a cost-effective strategy that allows Colombian NHS to maintain budget.

Cost Effectiveness of CDK4/6 Inhibitors in the First-Line Treatment of HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer in Postmenopausal Women in the USA

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors improve progression-free survival when combined with endocrine therapies in patients with hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer. However, the comparative cost effectiveness of utilizing three US Food and Drug Administration-approved CDK4/6 inhibitors is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of individual CDK4/6 inhibitors (palbociclib, ribociclib, abemaciclib) with letrozole versus letrozole monotherapy in the first-line treatment of hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer in the USA.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov-based decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost effectiveness of CDK4/6 inhibitors plus endocrine therapies over a 40-year lifetime from a third-party payer perspective. The model incorporated health states (progression-free disease, progressive disease, and death), major adverse events (neutropenia), and cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. Using clinical efficacy and quality-of-life scores (utility) data from clinical trials, we estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using Medicare charges reported in US dollars per 2022 valuation and a discount rate of 3% applied to costs and outcomes. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate parametric and decision uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared to letrozole, the model estimated an increase of 5.72, 5.87, and 6.39 in QALYs and costs of $799,178, $788,168, and $741,102 in combining palbociclib, ribociclib, and abemaciclib plus letrozole, respectively. Palbociclib or ribociclib plus letrozole were dominated by abemaciclib plus letrozole. Compared with letrozole, abemaciclib plus letrozole resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $457,538 per QALY with an incremental cost of $553,621 and an incremental QALY gain of 1.21. The results were sensitive to the cost of abemaciclib, disease progression utility, and patients' age.

CONCLUSIONS

At a willingness to pay of $100,000/QALY gained, our model predicts that combining CDK4/6 inhibitors plus letrozole is not cost effective with a marginal increase in QALYs at a high cost. Lowering the cost of these drugs or identifying patients who can receive maximal benefit from CDK4/6 inhibitors would improve the value of this regimen in patients.

Cost-effectiveness of testing for CYP2C19 loss-of-function carriers following transient ischemic attack/minor stroke: A Canadian perspective

BACKGROUND

The CHANCE-2 study compared 3 weeks of aspirin-ticagrelor to aspirin-clopidogrel in CYP2C19 loss-of-function (LOF) allele carriers following a transient ischemic attack (TIA)/minor stroke and demonstrated a modestly lower risk of stroke recurrence with aspirin-ticagrelor. This stroke protection was largely for minor stroke and came at an increased risk of bleeding. The cost-effectiveness of implementing testing for LOF allele status to personalize antiplatelet regimen for secondary stroke prevention after a TIA/minor stroke in the Canadian health care context is unknown.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision-analytic Markov cohort model with a lifetime horizon was performed to determine the costs and health benefits of testing for LOF allele status compared with no testing (current standard of care). The population of interest was patients living in Canada who suffered a TIA/minor stroke. Outcomes of interest were life-years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, costs (reported in 2022 Canadian dollars), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We adopted the perspective of the Federal, Provincial, and Territorial Ministries of Health and used a 1.5% annual discount rate. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared to standard of care, LOF allele testing leads to 0.14 LYG (undiscounted), 0.12 QALYs gained (undiscounted), and additional lifetime costs of CAD$432 (discounted) per patient. The ICER of the LOF allele testing strategy is CAD$4310 per QALY gained compared with standard of care. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that LOF allele testing was cost-effective in more than 99.99% of simulations using a willingness-to-pay threshold of CAD$50,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSION

Based on available evidence, testing for LOF allele followed by short duration 3 weeks of aspirin-ticagrelor compared to standard-of-care aspirin-clopidogrel can lead to prolonged life and improved quality of life and can be considered very cost-effective when compared with other well-accepted technologies in health and medicine.

Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing in-office posterior nasal nerve ablation to surgical therapies

BACKGROUND

Recently, in-office posterior nasal nerve ablation (PNA) devices have offered a new tool to treat refractory chronic rhinitis, but their cost-effectiveness relative to traditional interventions such as vidian neurectomy (VN) and posterior nasal neurectomy (PNN) remains unexplored.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the cost-effectiveness of these interventions in patients with refractory chronic rhinitis.

METHODS

A decision tree with embedded Markov models was created to compare the cost-effectiveness of PNN, VN, and PNA, measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 30-year time horizon with a $100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses were completed.

RESULTS

Sensitivity analysis found that in-office PNA became cost-effective compared to VN when patients undergoing PNA were less than 20 % more likely than VN to have symptoms recur; this value was assumed to be twice as likely in the base case. In the base case, however, VN and in-office PNA were more effective and less expensive than PNN, while VN was cost-effective when compared to in-office PNA (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $11,616.24/QALY). Other assumptions were not found to considerably impact incremental cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

Although highly limited by currently available data, PNA may be cost-effective compared to VN as long-term outcomes on the durability of its effects emerge. These data should not be used by payers considering coverage or utilization since long-term data is still nascent. However, that as new technologies emerge for rhinitis, it will be important to monitor longer-term outcomes to identify high value care, but based on limited data PNA devices may meet this standard.

AI-based opportunistic CT screening of incidental cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and sarcopenia: cost-effectiveness analysis

PURPOSE

To assess the cost-effectiveness and clinical efficacy of AI-assisted abdominal CT-based opportunistic screening for atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) disease, osteoporosis, and sarcopenia using artificial intelligence (AI) body composition algorithms.

METHODS

Markov models were constructed and 10-year simulations were performed on hypothetical age- and sex-specific cohorts of 10,000 U.S. adults (base case: 55 year olds) undergoing abdominal CT. Using expected disease prevalence, transition probabilities between health states, associated healthcare costs, and treatment effectiveness related to relevant conditions (CV disease/osteoporosis/sarcopenia) were modified by three mutually exclusive screening models: (1) usual care ("treat none"; no intervention regardless of opportunistic CT findings), (2) universal statin therapy ("treat all" for CV prevention; again, no consideration of CT findings), and (3) AI-assisted abdominal CT-based opportunistic screening for CV disease, osteoporosis, and sarcopenia using automated quantitative algorithms for abdominal aortic calcification, bone mineral density, and skeletal muscle, respectively. Model validity was assessed against published clinical cohorts.

RESULTS

For the base-case scenarios of 55-year-old men and women modeled over 10 years, AI-assisted CT-based opportunistic screening was a cost-saving and more effective clinical strategy, unlike the "treat none" and "treat all" strategies that ignored incidental CT body composition data. Over a wide range of input assumptions beyond the base case, the CT-based opportunistic strategy was dominant over the other two scenarios, as it was both more clinically efficacious and more cost-effective. Cost savings and clinical improvement for opportunistic CT remained for AI tool costs up to $227/patient in men ($65 in women) from the $10/patient base-case scenario.

CONCLUSION

AI-assisted CT-based opportunistic screening appears to be a highly cost-effective and clinically efficacious strategy across a broad array of input assumptions, and was cost saving in most scenarios.

Monitoring policy in the context of preventive treatment of cardiovascular disease

Preventing chronic diseases is an essential aspect of medical care. To prevent chronic diseases, physicians focus on monitoring their risk factors and prescribing the necessary medication. The optimal monitoring policy depends on the patient's risk factors and demographics. Monitoring too frequently may be unnecessary and costly; on the other hand, monitoring the patient infrequently means the patient may forgo needed treatment and experience adverse events related to the disease. We propose a finite horizon and finite-state Markov decision process to define monitoring policies. To build our Markov decision process, we estimate stochastic models based on longitudinal observational data from electronic health records for a large cohort of patients seen in the national U.S. Veterans Affairs health system. We use our model to study policies for whether or when to assess the need for cholesterol-lowering medications. We further use our model to investigate the role of gender and race on optimal monitoring policies.

The cost-effectiveness of tailored smoking cessation interventions for people with severe mental illness: a model-based economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Tailored smoking cessation interventions, which combine behavioural and pharmaceutical support, are effective in populations with severe mental illness (SMI). We establish the cost-effectiveness of two tailored interventions in the UK: (i) a bespoke smoking cessation intervention (BSCI) versus usual care, and (ii) integrated tobacco cessation and mental health care (IC) versus standard smoking cessation clinic (SCC) referral.

METHODS

This economic evaluation was conducted between January 15th 2019 and August 4th 2022. We adapted a Markov model estimating smoking status, healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) across the lifetime. Intervention effectiveness and costs were obtained from a systematic review and a meta-analysis. We obtained specific parameter values for populations with SMI for mortality, risk of smoking related comorbidities, and health utility. Uncertainty was analysed in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).

FINDINGS

The BSCI was cost-effective versus usual care with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3145 per QALY (incremental costs: £165; incremental QALYs: 0.05). Integrated care was cost-effective versus SCC with an ICER of £6875 per QALY (incremental costs: £292; incremental QALYs: 0.04). The BSCI and IC were cost-effective in 89% and 83% of PSA iterations respectively. The main area of uncertainty related to relapse rates.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggested that the tailored interventions were cost-effective and could increase QALYs and decrease expenditure on treating smoking related morbidities if offered to people with SMI.

FUNDING

York Health Economics Consortium was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to produce economic evaluations to inform public health guidelines.

Twin Vaginal Deliveries in Labor Rooms: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Twin vaginal deliveries (VDs) are often performed in the operating room (OR) given the theoretical risk of conversion to cesarean delivery (CD) for the aftercoming twin. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of performing VDs for twin gestations in the labor and delivery room (LDR) versus OR.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision-analysis model that compared the costs and effectiveness of two strategies of twin deliveries undergoing a trial of labor: (1) intended delivery in the LDR and 2) delivery in the OR. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess strength and validity of the model. Primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) defined as cost needed to gain 1 quality-adjusted life year (QALY).

RESULTS

In the base-case scenario, where 7% of deliveries resulted in conversion to CD for twin B, attempting to deliver twins in the LDR was the most cost-effective strategy. For every QALY gained by delivering in the OR, 243,335 USD would need to be spent (ICER). In univariate sensitivity analyses, the most cost-effective strategy shifted to delivering in the OR when the following was true: (1) probability of successful VD was less than 86%, (2) probability of neonatal morbidity after emergent CD exceeded 3.5%, (3) cost of VD in an LDR exceeded 10,500 USD, (4) cost of CD was less than 10,000 USD, or (5) probability of neonatal death from emergent CD exceeded 2.8%. Assuming a willingness to pay of 100,000 USD per neonatal QALY gained, attempted VD in the LDR was cost effective in 51% of simulations in the Monte Carlo analysis.

CONCLUSION

Twin VDs in the LDR are cost effective based on current neonatal outcome data, taking into account gestational age and associated morbidity. Further investigation is needed to elucidate impact of cost and outcomes on optimal utilization of resources.

KEY POINTS

· Cost effectiveness of twin VDs in the LDR versus OR was assessed.. · Twin VDs in the LDR are cost effective based on current neonatal outcome data.. · Attempted VD in the LDR was cost effective in 51% of simulations in the Monte Carlo analysis..

Cost-Effectiveness of Icosapent Ethyl (IPE) for the Reduction of the Risk of Ischemic Cardiovascular Events in Canada

Background

Despite the use of statins, many patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) have persistent residual risk. In a large Phase III trial (REDUCE-IT), icosapent ethyl (IPE) was shown to reduce the first occurrence of the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina.

Methods

We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing IPE to placebo in statin-treated patients with elevated triglycerides, from a publicly funded, Canadian healthcare payer perspective, using a time-dependent Markov transition model over a 20-year time horizon. We obtained efficacy and safety data from REDUCE-IT, and costs and utilities from provincial formularies and databases, manufacturer sources, and Canadian literature sources.

Results

In the probabilistic base-case analysis, IPE was associated with an incremental cost of $12,523 and an estimated 0.29 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $42,797/QALY gained. At a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 and $100,000/QALY gained, there is a probability of 70.4% and 98.8%, respectively, that IPE is a cost-effective strategy over placebo. The deterministic model yielded similar results. In the deterministic sensitivity analyses, the ICER varied between $31,823-$70,427/QALY gained. Scenario analyses revealed that extending the timeframe of the model to a lifetime horizon resulted in an ICER of $32,925/QALY gained.

Conclusion

IPE represents an important new treatment for the reduction of ischemic CV events in statin-treated patients with elevated triglycerides. Based on the clinical trial evidence, we found that IPE could be a cost-effective strategy for treating these patients in Canada.

Total thyroidectomy is more cost-effective than radioactive iodine as an alternative to antithyroid medication for Graves' disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with Graves' disease treated with radioactive iodine report worse quality of life than those treated by thyroidectomy. However, radioactive iodine is often selected due to lower risk of complications and lower cost. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of radioactive iodine versus total thyroidectomy for treatment of Graves' disease.

METHODS

A Markov decision-analytic model was created to simulate clinical outcomes and costs of medication-refractory Graves' disease treated with radioactive iodine or total thyroidectomy. Complication rates and utilities were derived from published data. Costs were extracted from national Medicare reimbursement rates. We conducted 1-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to identify factors that influence cost-effectiveness and reflect uncertainty in model parameters. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life-years.

RESULTS

Total thyroidectomy yielded 23.6 quality-adjusted life-years versus 20.9 quality-adjusted life-years for radioactive iodine. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $2,982 per quality-adjusted life-years, indicating that surgery is highly cost-effective relative to radioactive iodine. Surgery was more cost effective than radioactive iodine in 88.2% of model simulations. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the model outcomes are driven predominantly by posttreatment quality of life, with contributing effects from rates of treatment complications and the impact of these complications on quality of life.

CONCLUSION

For patients with Graves' disease who either cannot tolerate or are refractory to antithyroid drugs, thyroidectomy is more cost-effective than radioactive iodine. Future research should validate reported differences in quality of life between these 2 treatment modalities.

Probabilistic microsimulation to examine the cost-effectiveness of hospital admission screening strategies for carbapenemase-producing enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance has been recognised as a global threat with carbapenemase- producing-Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) as a prime example. CPE has similarities to COVID-19 where asymptomatic patients may be colonised representing a source for onward transmission. There are limited treatment options for CPE infection leading to poor outcomes and increased costs. Admission screening can prevent cross-transmission by pre-emptively isolating colonised patients.

OBJECTIVE

We assess the relative cost-effectiveness of screening programmes compared with no- screening.

METHODS

A microsimulation parameterised with NHS Scotland date was used to model scenarios of the prevalence of CPE colonised patients on admission. Screening strategies were (a) two-step screening involving a clinical risk assessment (CRA) checklist followed by microbiological testing of high-risk patients; and (b) universal screening. Strategies were considered with either culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. All costs were reported in 2019 UK pounds with a healthcare system perspective.

RESULTS

In the low prevalence scenario, no screening had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness. Among screening strategies, the two CRA screening options were the most likely to be cost-effective. Screening was more likely to be cost-effective than no screening in the prevalence of 1 CPE colonised in 500 admitted patients or more. There was substantial uncertainty with the probabilities rarely exceeding 40% and similar results between strategies. Screening reduced non-isolated bed-days and CPE colonisation. The cost of screening was low in relation to total costs.

CONCLUSION

The specificity of the CRA checklist was the parameter with the highest impact on the cost-effectiveness. Further primary data collection is needed to build models with less uncertainty in the parameters.

Sequential Multiple Imputation for Real-World Health-Related Quality of Life Missing Data after Bariatric Surgery

One of the main challenges for the successful implementation of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessments is missing data. The current study examined the feasibility and validity of a sequential multiple imputation (MI) method to deal with missing values in the longitudinal HRQoL data from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry. All patients in the SOReg who received bariatric surgery between 1 January 2011 and 31 March 2019 (n = 47,653) were included for the descriptive analysis and missingness pattern exploration. The patients who had completed the short-form 36 (SF-36) at baseline (year 0), and one-, two-, and five-year follow-ups were included (n = 3957) for the missingness pattern simulation and the sequential MI analysis. Eleven items of the SF-36 were selected to create the six domains of SF-6D, and the SF-6D utility index of each patient was calculated accordingly. The multiply-imputed variables in previous year were used as input to impute the missing values in later years. The performance of the sequential MI was evaluated by comparing the actual values with the imputed values of the selected SF-36 items and index at all four time points. At the baseline and year 1, where missing proportions were about 20% and 40%, respectively, there were no statistically significant discrepancies between the distributions of the actual and imputed responses (all p-values > 0.05). In year 2, where the missing proportion was about 60%, distributions of the actual and imputed responses were consistent in 9 of the 11 SF-36 items. However, in year 5, where the missing proportion was about 80%, no consistency was found between the actual and imputed responses in any of the SF-36 items. Relatively high missing proportions in HRQoL data are common in clinical registries, which brings a challenge to analyzing the HRQoL of longitudinal cohorts. The experimental sequential multiple imputation method adopted in the current study might be an ideal strategy for handling missing data (even though the follow-up survey had a missing proportion of 60%), avoiding significant information waste in the multivariate analysis. However, the imputations for data with higher missing proportions warrant more research.

Cost-minimisation analysis of polysomnography and pulse oximetry in a risk stratification protocol for paediatric adenotonsillectomy

BACKGROUND

Severe obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is associated with increased risk of respiratory compromise in the post-operative period following adenotonsillectomy (AT). This study analyses the economic cost of polysomnography or overnight oximetry as part of pre-operative risk stratification in paediatric AT, supplementing previously published research demonstrating the efficacy of this protocol in predicting respiratory complications.

METHODS

This cost-minimisation analysis examines costs associated with pre-operative overnight oximetry and polysomnography in triaging paediatric patients older than 2 years old, with no major comorbidities except for OSA, undergoing AT for OSA (n = 1801) to either a secondary or quaternary Australian hospital. Decision analysis modelling via probability trees were utilized to estimate pre- and peri-operative costs. A third hypothetical 'no investigation' model based upon conducting all AT at a secondary hospital was performed. Costs are derived from the financial year 2020-2021, censored at discharge.

RESULTS

The total cost per patient of AT including pre-operative investigations of oximetry and polysomnography, and associated inpatient costs, were AUD4181.34 and 5013.99 respectively. This is more expensive compared to a hypothetical no-investigation model (AUD3958.98).

CONCLUSION

Within the scope of this partial economic evaluation, this study finds a small additional cost for a model of care involving overnight oximetry as a pre-operative triage tool, balanced by the reduced cost of care in a lower acuity centre for low-risk patients and potential high cost of complications if all children are treated in a low acuity centre. This supports oximetry in peri-operative risk stratification for paediatric AT from a financial perspective.

Universal First-Trimester Cytomegalovirus Screening and Valaciclovir Prophylaxis in Pregnant Persons: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest a possible benefit of valaciclovir prophylaxis to prevent vertical transmission after a positive serologic screen for primary maternal cytomegalovirus infection during pregnancy, although its cost-effectiveness remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine the circumstances under which universal first-trimester maternal serologic screening for maternal cytomegalovirus infection, with valaciclovir prophylaxis to prevent congenital cytomegalovirus, is cost-effective.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a decision analysis from the perspective of the pregnant person to assess whether universal maternal screening in the first trimester, with subsequent valaciclovir prophylaxis (8g/day from time of positive serologic screen for primary maternal cytomegalovirus infection through 21 weeks' gestation) for those who are acutely infected, is cost-effective compared to usual care (i.e., no routine serologic screening, but amniocentesis if mid-trimester sonographic findings suggest cytomegalovirus). For baseline estimates, we assumed a 35% risk of congenital cytomegalovirus after primary maternal infection and a 71% risk reduction with valaciclovir. We varied valaciclovir's efficacy to identify whether and at what threshold universal screening would be estimated to be cost-effective, compared to usual care. Monte Carlo analyses were performed. A willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life year was used to define cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Under base-case estimates, first-trimester universal screening and valaciclovir prophylaxis for seropositive pregnant persons with acute cytomegalovirus infection is not cost-effective, with a cost of $137,854 per maternal QALY, but results in 14 fewer cytomegalovirus-affected children per 100,000 pregnancies compared to usual care. In one-way sensitivity analysis, universal screening and treatment is estimated to be the cost-effective strategy if the incidence of primary maternal cytomegalovirus infection exceeds 2.6%, baseline risk of vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus without prophylaxis is greater than 36.8%, and the risk reduction of vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus with valaciclovir prophylaxis exceeds 75.9%. In Monte Carlo analyses, first-trimester universal serologic screening with valaciclovir prophylaxis is estimated to be the cost-effective strategy in 46.8% of runs.

CONCLUSION

Universal first-trimester serologic screening with valaciclovir prophylaxis is not the cost-effective strategy for antenatal management of cytomegalovirus under the base-case estimates. Although universal screening is cost-effective in certain circumstances when the efficacy of valaciclovir exceeds the base case, that result is not robust to variation of estimates across their reasonable ranges. These data can inform future studies to evaluate screening and treatment to prevent congenital CMV.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical length screening and progesterone treatment to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies, using prevalence and healthcare cost data from the Swedish healthcare context.

METHODS

We designed a decision analytic model based on the Swedish CERVIX study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy. The model was constructed as a combined decision-tree model and Markov model with a time horizon of 100 years. Four preventive strategies, namely 'Universal screening', 'High-risk-based screening' (i.e. screening of high-risk women only), 'Low-risk-based screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of remaining women) and 'Nullipara screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of nulliparous women only), included second-trimester cervical length (CL) screening by transvaginal ultrasound followed by vaginal progesterone treatment in the case of a short cervix. A fifth preventive strategy involved vaginal progesterone treatment of women with previous spontaneous PTD or late miscarriage but no CL screening ('No screening, treat high-risk group'). For comparison, we used a sixth strategy implying no specific intervention to prevent spontaneous PTD, reflecting the current situation in Sweden ('No screening'). Probabilities for a short cervix (CL ≤ 25 mm; base-case) and for spontaneous PTD at < 33 + 0 weeks and at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks were derived from the CERVIX study, and probabilities for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and long-term morbidity (cerebral palsy) from Swedish health data registers. Costs were based on Swedish data, except costs for cerebral palsy, which were based on Danish data. We assumed that vaginal progesterone reduces spontaneous PTD before 33 weeks by 30% and spontaneous PTD at 33-36 weeks by 10% (based on the literature). All analyses were from a societal perspective. We expressed the effectiveness of each strategy as gained quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and presented cost-effectiveness as average (ACER; average cost per gained QALY compared with 'No screening') and incremental (ICER; difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs for each of two strategies being compared) cost-effectiveness ratios. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The results of the latter are shown as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Willingness-to-pay was set at a maximum of 500 000 Swedish krona (56 000 US dollars (USD)), as suggested by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.

RESULTS

All interventions had better health outcomes than did 'No screening', with fewer screening-year deaths and more lifetime QALYs. The best strategy in terms of improved health outcomes was 'Low-risk-based screening', irrespective of whether screening was performed at 18 + 0 to 20 + 6 weeks (Cx1) or at 21 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks (Cx2). 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 was cost-effective, while 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2 entailed high costs compared with other alternatives. The ACERs were 2200 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 and 36 800 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2. Cost-effectiveness was particularly sensitive to progesterone effectiveness and to productivity loss due to sick leave during pregnancy. The probability that 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 is cost-effective compared with 'No screening' was 71%.

CONCLUSION

Interventions to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy, including CL screening with progesterone treatment of cases with a short cervix, may be cost-effective in Sweden. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Advanced Esophageal Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

INTRODUCTION

In 2021, KEYNOTE-590 (NCT03189719) showed that pembrolizumab plus 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin (PPF) has more benefits than 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin (PF) as a first-line regimen to treat individuals with advanced esophageal cancer. However, given that it is expensive, controversies over the value of using this compared to competitive strategies remain. Hence, we conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy.

METHODS

A Markov model was applied in evaluating the efficacy and cost of PPF and PF over a 7-year horizon and measured the health outcomes in life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The economic data included were relevant to patients in the USA and China. We also performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to determine the uncertainties relevant to the model. Willingness to pay thresholds (WTP) of $150,000/QALY (USA) and $35,673/QALY (China) were used to calculate a probability for the cost-effectiveness of PPF.

RESULTS

PPF yielded 0.386-0.607 QALYs (0.781-1.195 LYs) compared with PF. In our analysis, compared with receiving PF, patients with advanced esophageal cancer receiving PPF had an ICER of $577,461/QALY in the USA and $258,261/QALY in China, those for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were $550,211/QALY in the USA and $244,580/QALY in China, and a programmed cell death ligand 1 combined positive score (PD-L1 CPS) ≥ 10 was associated with a cost of $479,119/QALY in the USA and $201,355/QALY in China. Sensitivity analysis found the price of pembrolizumab to be the biggest influence.

CONCLUSION

From the economic perspectives of the USA and China, a first-line regimen of PPF for esophageal cancer therapy may not be as cost-effective as PF. However, patients with esophageal cancer and PD-L1 CPS ≥ 10 may gain the most LYs from initial PPF treatment.

Self-esteem in patients with venous thromboembolism predicts time trade-off values for own health

Background

The time trade-off (TTO) is a commonly used preference based method to assess health related values used in health economic analyses. Surprisingly little is known about the factors influencing the TTO. Since self-esteem is a predictor for health status measurements, and health status affects the TTO, we studied the relation between self-esteem and TTO values.

Methods

Data of 128 patients treated with vitamin K antagonists for venous thromboembolism on Short Form-36 (SF-36), Rosenberg self-esteem and patient characteristics were collected. TTO values were obtained for ‘current health’ and three chronic health states related to thrombosis, in face-to-face interviews with patients. Regression analyses were performed with the TTO as dependent variable. Analyses were performed in two groups; the complete sample, and traders only. Selected predictors were entered in four blocks: socio-demographic factors, medical-clinical factors, health status, and self-esteem.

Results

In the complete sample (N = 128), bivariate regression analysis showed that self-esteem explained 14% of the variance in TTO values for current health (p < .000, N = 117). In traders, multivariate regression analysis showed a significant relationship between self-esteem and TTO values for current health. Self-esteem increased the variance explained (R²) by 8.8%, from 28.1 to 36.9%, (p = 0.01; N = 57). For hypothetical health states, the effect of self-esteem was weaker and mostly absent after controlling for selected variables.

Conclusions

In patients willing to trade-off time, higher self-esteem was associated with higher TTO values for own current health. Self-esteem explained an appreciable proportion of the variance in TTO values in traders. For hypothetical health states such associations were weak or absent.

Safety Warning about Laparoscopic Power Morcellation in Hysterectomy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of National Impact

Background:

Following a 2014 safety warning (that laparoscopic power morcellation may increase tumor dissemination if patients have occult uterine cancer), hysterectomy practice shifted from laparoscopic to abdominal approach. This avoided morcellating occult cancer, but increased perioperative complications. To inform the national impact of this practice change, we examined the cost-effectiveness of hysterectomy practice in the postwarning period, in comparison to counterfactual hysterectomy practice had there been no morcellation warning.

Materials and Methods:

We constructed a decision tree model to simulate relevant outcomes over the lifetime of patients in the national population undergoing hysterectomy for presumed benign indications. The model accounted for both hysterectomy- and occult cancer-related outcomes. Probability-, cost-, and utility weight-related input parameters were derived from analysis of the State Inpatient Databases, State Ambulatory Surgery and Services Databases, data from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System and New York State Cancer Registry, and published literature.

Results:

With an estimated national sample of 353,567 adult women, base case analysis showed that changes in hysterectomy practice after the morcellation warning led to a net gain of 867.15 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), but an increase of $19.54 million in costs (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $22,537/QALY). In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the practice changes were cost-effective in 54.0% of the simulations when evaluated at a threshold of $50,000/QALY, which increased to 70.9% when evaluated at a threshold of $200,000/QALY.

Conclusion:

Hysterectomy practice changes induced by the morcellation warning are expected to be cost-effective, but uncertainty in parameter values may affect the cost-effectiveness results.

Health-related quality of life in individuals with genital herpes: a systematic review

Background

There is a significant global burden of herpes simplex virus (HSV) related genital ulcer disease yet little is known about its impact on quality of life. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that quantitatively evaluated the effect of genital herpes on various aspects of health-related quality of life.

Methods

Six databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Web of Science Core Collection) for primary quality of life and economic evaluations of genital herpes from January 1, 2000 to January 7, 2021. Qualitative studies or those without primary data were excluded. Two authors independently extracted data from the publications. The study’s registration number with PROSPERO was CRD42021239410.

Findings

We identified 26 relevant publications: 19 presented primary quality of life data, and seven were economic evaluations. The primary studies presented a range of condition-specific tools for describing the quality of life in individuals with genital herpes, but only one study used a direct valuation that could be used to generate utility weights. All economic evaluations of HSV infection were from high-income country settings. Most (6 of 7) focused on neonatal HSV infection with utilities adopted from studies prior to 2000.

Interpretation

The extant literature on genital herpes-related quality of life is limited and requires updating. We recommend future studies be conducted in geographic- and population- diverse settings, and use preference-based condition-specific or generic-instruments to better inform economic modelling.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12955-022-01934-w.

Tranexamic Acid for the Treatment of Postpartum Hemorrhage: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a leading cause of pregnancy-related morbidity and mortality. Recent data has demonstrated that tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces death due to bleeding when used as a treatment for PPH. The World Health Organization (WHO) now recommends TXA as a first-line treatment for PPH, however data is not yet available on the frequency of use in the United States, where TXA is currently recognized as an adjunct treatment for PPH.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to strengthen the current evidence that TXA should be recognized as a first-line treatment for PPH, even in high-resource countries. Furthermore, we aimed to determine whether early administration of TXA (within 3 hours of diagnosis) is a cost-effective strategy for reducing maternal morbidity and mortality from PPH in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

A decision analytic model was designed in order to compare the outcomes and costs of TXA use in the treatment of PPH. This model was then used to compare outcomes for early administration with those of routine use. The interventions compared were 1 gram of intravenous TXA or matching placebo. The risks analyzed in the model were death due to hemorrhage and laparotomy to control bleeding. Probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from literature. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using a discounted life expectancy rate of 3 percent. Cost-effectiveness was determined based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY.

RESULTS

Administration of TXA to theoretical cohort of 100,000 women would prevent 11 maternal deaths, 6 postpartum laparotomies after vaginal delivery, and 112 re-operations after cesarean delivery. This would lead to an increase in 329 QALYs and a total cost savings of 15.39 million. Furthermore, if TXA were administered early (within 3 hours of PPH diagnosis) to the same theoretical cohort, 16 maternal deaths due to hemorrhage, 9 laparotomies, and 155 re-operations would be prevented. This amounts to an increase in 438 QALYs and an annual cost savings of $23.15 million. Sensitivity analysis showed that the administration of TXA was the dominant strategy at all probabilities of maternal death due to hemorrhage greater than 0.00002. When the cost of TXA was varied, TXA use remained dominant up to a cost of $267 per administration in the US if given within the first 3 hours. Furthermore, in a Monte-Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the early administration of TXA remained the dominant strategy (both lowered costs and improved outcomes) in 99.8% of models.

CONCLUSION

Early administration of TXA is a cost-effective strategy for reducing maternal morbidity and mortality due to postpartum hemorrhage in the US.

Relationships Between Self-Rated Health at Three Time Points: Past, Present, Future

Background: Multiple studies have shown that people who have experienced a serious health problem such as an injury tend to overrate the quality of health they had before that event. The main objective of this study was to test whether the phenomenon of respondents overrating their past health can also be observed in people from the general population. A second aim was to test whether habitual optimism is indeed focused on events in the future.

Method: A representatively selected community sample from Leipzig, Germany (n = 2282, age range: 40–75 years) was examined. Respondents were asked to assess their current health, their past health (5 years before), and their expected future health (in 5 years) on a 0–100 scale. In addition, the study participants completed several questionnaires on specific aspects of physical and mental health.

Results: Respondents of all age groups assessed their health as having been better in the past than it was at present. Moreover, they also assessed their earlier state of health more positively than people 5 years younger did their current state. Habitual optimism was associated with respondents having more positive expectations of how healthy they will be in 5 years time (r = 0.37), but the correlation with their assessments of their current health was nearly as high (r = 0.36).

Conclusion: Highly positive scores of retrospectively assessed health among people who have experienced a health problem cannot totally be accounted for by a response to that health problem.

Cost Utility of Lifelong Immunoglobulin Replacement Therapy vs Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant to Treat Agammaglobulinemia

IMPORTANCE

Lifelong immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) is standard-of-care treatment for congenital agammaglobulinemia but accrues high annual costs ($30 000-$90 000 per year) and decrements to quality of life over patients' life spans. Hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) offers an alternative 1-time therapy, but has high morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost utility of IRT vs matched sibling donor (MSD) and matched unrelated donor (MUD) HSCT to treat patients with agammaglobulinemia in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic evaluation used Markov analysis to model the base-case scenario of a patient aged 12 months with congenital agammaglobulinemia receiving lifelong IRT vs MSD or MUD HSCT. Costs, probabilities, and quality-of-life measures were derived from the literature. Microsimulations estimated premature deaths for each strategy in a virtual cohort. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated uncertainty around parameter estimates performed from a societal perspective over a 100-year time horizon. The threshold for cost-effective care was set at $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). This study was conducted from 2020 across a 100-year time horizon.

EXPOSURES

Immunoglobulin replacement therapy vs MSD or MUD HSCT for treatment of congenital agammaglobulinemia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed in 2020 US dollars per QALY gained and premature deaths associated with each strategy.

RESULTS

In this economic evaluation of patients with congenital agammaglobulinemia, lifelong IRT cost more than HSCT ($1 512 946 compared with $563 776 [MSD] and $637 036 [MUD]) and generated similar QALYs (20.61 vs 17.25 [MSD] and 17.18 [MUD]). Choosing IRT over MSD or MUD HSCT yielded ICERs of $282 166 per QALY gained over MSD and $255 633 per QALY gained over MUD HSCT, exceeding the US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. However, IRT prevented at least 2488 premature deaths per 10 000 microsimulations compared with HSCT. When annual IRT price was reduced from $60 145 to below $29 469, IRT became the cost-effective strategy. Findings remained robust in sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In the US, IRT is more expensive than HSCT for agammaglobulinemia treatment. The findings of this study suggest that IRT prevents more premature deaths but does not substantially increase quality of life relative to HSCT. Reducing US IRT cost by 51% to a value similar to IRT prices in countries implementing value-based pricing may render it the more cost-effective strategy.

Precision Medicine for Hypertension Patients with Type 2 Diabetes via Reinforcement Learning

Precision medicine is a new approach to understanding health and disease based on patient-specific data such as medical diagnoses; clinical phenotype; biologic investigations such as laboratory studies and imaging; and environmental, demographic, and lifestyle factors. The importance of machine learning techniques in healthcare has expanded quickly in the last decade owing to the rising availability of vast multi-modality data and developed computational models and algorithms. Reinforcement learning is an appealing method for developing efficient policies in various healthcare areas where the decision-making process is typically defined by a long period or a sequential process. In our research, we leverage the power of reinforcement learning and electronic health records of South Koreans to dynamically recommend treatment prescriptions, which are personalized based on patient information of hypertension. Our proposed reinforcement learning-based treatment recommendation system decides whether to use mono, dual, or triple therapy according to the state of the hypertension patients. We evaluated the performance of our personalized treatment recommendation model by lowering the occurrence of hypertension-related complications and blood pressure levels of patients who followed our model’s recommendation. With our findings, we believe that our proposed hypertension treatment recommendation model could assist doctors in prescribing appropriate antihypertensive medications.

Cost-utility analysis of antimicrobial stewardship programme at a tertiary teaching hospital in Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) significantly reduces inappropriate antibiotic use and improves patient outcomes. In low-resource settings, AMS implementation may require concurrent strengthening of clinical microbiology capacity therefore additional investments. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of implementing AMS at Tikur Anbessa Specialised Hospital (TASH), a tertiary care hospital in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

We developed a Markov cohort model to assess the cost-utility of pharmacist-led AMS with concurrent strengthening of laboratory capacity compared with usual care from a 'restricted societal' perspective. We used a lifetime time horizon and discounted health outcomes and cost at 3% annually. Data were extracted from a prospective study of bloodstream infections among patients hospitalised at TASH, supplemented by published literature. We assessed parameter uncertainty using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

SETTING

Tertiary care hospital in Ethiopia, with 800 beds and serves over half a million patients per year.

POPULATION

Cohort of adults and children inpatient population aged 19.8 years at baseline.

INTERVENTION

Laboratory-supported pharmacist-led AMS compared with usual care. Usual care is defined as empirical initiation of antibiotic therapy in the absence of strong laboratory and AMS.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Expected life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (US$2018) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

Laboratory-supported AMS strategy dominated usual care, that is, AMS was associated with an expected incremental gain of 38.8 QALYs at lower expected cost (incremental cost savings:US$82 370) per 1000 patients compared with usual care. Findings were sensitive to medication cost, infection-associated mortality and AMS-associated mortality reduction. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that AMS programme was likely to be cost-effective at 100% of the simulation compared with usual care at 1%-51% of gross domestic product/capita.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that laboratory-supported pharmacist-led AMS can result in improved health outcomes and substantial healthcare cost savings, demonstrating its economic advantage in a tertiary care hospital despite greater upfront investments in a low-resource setting.

Does obesity influence the preferred treatment approach for early-stage cervical cancer? A cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

Abdominal radical hysterectomy in early-stage cervical cancer has higher rates of disease-free and overall survival compared with minimally invasive radical hysterectomy. Abdominal radical hysterectomy may be technically challenging at higher body mass index levels resulting in poorer surgical outcomes. This study sought to examine the influence of body mass index on outcomes and cost effectiveness between different treatments for early-stage cervical cancer.

METHODS

A Markov decision-analytic model was designed using TreeAge Pro software to compare the outcomes and costs of primary chemoradiation versus surgery in women with early-stage cervical cancer. The study used a theoretical cohort of 6000 women who were treated with abdominal radical hysterectomy, minimally invasive radical hysterectomy, or primary chemoradiation therapy. We compared the results for three body mass index groups: less than 30 kg/m², 30-39.9 kg/m², and 40 kg/m² or higher. Model inputs were derived from the literature. Outcomes included complications, recurrence, death, costs, and quality-adjusted life years. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than $100 000 per quality-adjusted life year was used as our willingness-to-pay threshold. Sensitivity analyses were performed broadly to determine the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

Comparing abdominal radical hysterectomy with minimally invasive radical hysterectomy, abdominal radical hysterectomy was associated with 526 fewer recurrences and 382 fewer deaths compared with minimally invasive radical hysterectomy; however, abdominal radical hysterectomy resulted in more complications for each body mass index category. When the body mass index was 40 kg/m² or higher, abdominal radical hysterectomy became the dominant strategy because it led to better outcomes with lower costs than minimally invasive radical hysterectomy. Comparing abdominal radical hysterectomy with primary chemoradiation therapy, recurrence rates were similar, with more deaths associated with surgery across each body mass index category. Chemoradiation therapy became cost effective when the body mass index was 40 kg/m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

When the body mass index is 40 kg/m² or higher, abdominal radical hysterectomy is cost saving compared with minimally invasive radical hysterectomy and primary chemoradiation is cost effective compared with abdominal radical hysterectomy. Primary chemoradiation may be the optimal management strategy at higher body mass indexes.

Incorporating Harms into the Weighting of the Revised AHRQ Patient Safety for Selected Indicators Composite (PSI 90)

OBJECTIVE

To reweight the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Patient Safety for Selected Indicators Composite [Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) 90] from weights based solely on the frequency of component PSIs to those that incorporate excess harm reflecting patients' preferences for outcome-related health states.

DATA SOURCES

National administrative and claims data involving hospitalizations in non-federal, non-rehabilitation, acute care hospitals.

STUDY DESIGN

We estimated the average excess aggregate harm associated with the occurrence of each component PSI using a cohort sample for each indicator based on denominator-eligible records. We used propensity scores to account for potential confounding in the risk models for each PSI and weighted observations to estimate the "average treatment effect in the treated" for those with the PSI event. We fit separate regression models for each harm outcome. Final PSI weights reflected both the disutilities and the frequencies of the harms.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We estimated PSI frequencies from the 2012 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases with present on admission data and excess harms using 2012-2013 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Medicare Fee-for-Service data.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Including harms in the weighting scheme changed individual component weights from the original frequency-based weighting. In the reweighted composite, PSIs 11 ("Postoperative Respiratory Failure"), 13 ("Postoperative Sepsis"), and 12 ("Perioperative Pulmonary Embolism or Deep Vein Thrombosis") contributed the greatest harm, with weights of 29.7%, 21.1%, and 20.4%, respectively. Regarding reliability, the overall average hospital signal-to-noise ratio for the reweighted PSI 90 was 0.7015. Regarding discrimination, among hospitals with greater than median volume, 34% had significantly better PSI 90 performance and 41% had significantly worse performance than benchmark rates (based on percentiles).

CONCLUSIONS

Reformulation of PSI 90 with harm-based weights is feasible and results in satisfactory reliability and discrimination, with a more clinically meaningful distribution of component weights.

Surveillance for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia following molar pregnancy: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Historically, published guidelines for care after molar pregnancy recommended monitoring human chorionic gonadotropin levels for the development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia until normal and then for 6 months after the first normal human chorionic gonadotropin. However, there are little data underlying such recommendations, and recent evidence has demonstrated that gestational trophoblastic neoplasia diagnosis after human chorionic gonadotropin normalization is rare.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for surveillance for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia after human chorionic gonadotropin normalization after complete and partial molar pregnancy.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov-based cost-effectiveness model, using monthly cycles and terminating after 36 months/cycles, was constructed to compare alternative strategies for asymptomatic human chorionic gonadotropin surveillance after the first normal (none; monthly testing for 1, 3, 6, and 12 months; or every 3-month testing for 3, 6, and 12 months) for both complete and partial molar pregnancy. The risk of reduced surveillance was modeled by increasing the probability of high-risk disease at diagnosis. Probabilities, costs, and utilities were estimated from peer-reviewed literature, with all cost data applicable to the United States and adjusted to 2020 US dollars. The primary outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year ($/quality-adjusted life year) with a $100,000/quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay threshold.

RESULTS

Under base-case assumptions, we found no further surveillance after the first normal human chorionic gonadotropin to be the dominant strategy from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives, for both complete and partial molar pregnancy. After complete mole, this strategy had the lowest average cost (healthcare system, $144 vs maximum $283; societal, $152 vs maximum $443) and highest effectiveness (2.711 vs minimum 2.682 quality-adjusted life years). This strategy led to a slightly higher rate of death from gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (0.013% vs minimum 0.009%), although with high costs per gestational trophoblastic neoplasia death avoided (range, $214,000 to >$4 million). Societal perspective costs of lost wages had a greater impact on frequent surveillance costs than rare gestational trophoblastic neoplasia treatment costs, and no further surveillance was more favorable from this perspective in otherwise identical analyses. No further surveillance remained dominant or preferred with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of <$100,000 in all analyses for partial mole, and most sensitivity analyses for complete mole. Under the assumption of no disutility from surveillance, surveillance strategies were more effective (by quality-adjusted life year) than no further surveillance, and a single human chorionic gonadotropin test at 3 months was found to be cost-effective after complete mole with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $53,261 from the healthcare perspective, but not from the societal perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $288,783).

CONCLUSION

Largely owing to the rare incidence of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia after human chorionic gonadotropin normalization after molar pregnancy, prolonged surveillance is not cost-effective under most assumptions. It would be reasonable to reduce, and potentially eliminate, current recommendations for surveillance after human chorionic gonadotropin normalization after molar pregnancy, particularly among partial moles. With any reduction in surveillance, patients should be counseled on symptoms of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia and established in routine gynecologic care.

Cost-Effectiveness of Baricitinib Compared With Standard of Care: A Modeling Study in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in the United States

Purpose

In the Phase III COV-BARRIER (Efficacy and Safety of Baricitinib for the Treatment of Hospitalised Adults With COVID-19) trial, treatment with baricitinib, an oral selective Janus kinase 1/2 inhibitor, in addition to standard of care (SOC), was associated with significantly reduced mortality over 28 days in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease–2019 (COVID-19), with a safety profile similar to that of SOC alone. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of baricitinib + SOC versus SOC alone (which included systemic corticosteroids and remdesivir) in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States.

Methods

An economic model was developed to simulate inpatients' stay, discharge to postacute care, and recovery. Costs modeled included payor costs, hospital costs, and indirect costs. Benefits modeled included life-years (LYs) gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, deaths avoided, and use of mechanical ventilation avoided. The primary analysis was performed from a payor perspective over a lifetime horizon; a secondary analysis was performed from a hospital perspective. The base-case analysis modeled the numeric differences in treatment effectiveness observed in the COV-BARRIER trial. Scenario analyses were also performed in which the clinical benefit of baricitinib was limited to the statistically significant reduction in mortality demonstrated in the trial.

Findings

In the base-case payor perspective model, an incremental total cost of 17,276 US dollars (USD), total QALYs gained of 0.6703, and total LYs gained of 0.837 were found with baricitinib + SOC compared with SOC alone. With the addition of baricitinib, survival was increased by 5.1% and the use of mechanical ventilation was reduced by 1.6%. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were 25,774 USD/QALY gained and 20,638 USD/LY gained; a “mortality-only” scenario analysis yielded similar results of 26,862 USD/QALY gained and 21,433 USD/LY gained. From the hospital perspective, combination treatment with baricitinib + SOC was more effective and less costly than was SOC alone in the base case, with an incremental cost of 38,964 USD per death avoided in the mortality-only scenario.

Implications

In hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States, the addition of baricitinib to SOC was cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness was demonstrated from both the payor and the hospital perspectives. These findings were robust to sensitivity analysis and to conservative assumptions limiting the clinical benefits of baricitinib to the statistically significant reduction in mortality demonstrated in the COV-BARRIER trial.

Data on Utility in Cost-Utility Analyses of Genetic Screen-and-Treat Strategies for Breast and Ovarian Cancer

Simple Summary

The prevention of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer involves genetic counselling and several highly preference-sensitive alternatives (i.e., risk-reducing surgeries). In health economics models, data on health preferences applied (i.e., utility values) are heterogeneous. In this methodological analysis, we compared the application of utility values among cost–utility models of targeted genetic testing for the prevention of breast and ovarian cancer. While varying utilities on risk-reducing surgeries and cancer states did not impact the cost–utility ratio, utility losses/gains due to a positive/negative test may strongly affect the cost–utility ratio and should be considered mandatory in future models. Because women’s health preferences may have changed as a result of improved oncologic care and genetic counselling, studies for ascertaining women’s health preferences should be updated.

Abstract

Genetic screen-and-treat strategies for the risk-reduction of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) are often evaluated by cost–utility analyses (CUAs). This analysis compares data on health preferences (i.e., utility values) in CUAs of targeted genetic testing for BC and OC. Based on utilities applied in fourteen CUAs, data on utility including related assumptions were extracted for the health states: (i) genetic test, (ii) risk-reducing surgeries, (iii) BC/OC and (iv) post cancer. In addition, information about the sources of utility and the impact on the cost-effectiveness was extracted. Utility for CUAs relied on heterogeneous data and assumptions for all health states. The utility values ranged from 0.68 to 0.97 for risk-reducing surgeries, 0.6 to 0.85 for BC and 0.5 to 0.82 for OC. In two out of nine studies, considering the impact of the test result strongly affected the cost–effectiveness ratio. While in general utilities seem not to affect the cost–utility ratio, in future modeling studies the impact of a positive/negative test on utility should be considered mandatory. Women’s health preferences, which may have changed as a result of improved oncologic care and genetic counselling, should be re-evaluated.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sequential fecal microbiota transplantation for fulminant Clostridioides difficile infection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Fulminant Clostridioides difficile infections (FCDI) account for 8% of cases and substantial healthcare burden. Fecal microbiota transplantation is recommended for recurrent CDI, but emerging data support use for FCDI. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a sequential fecal microbiota transplantation (sFMT) protocol for FCDI compared with current standard therapy.

METHODS

A Markov model simulated patients with FCDI in a 1-year time horizon. The treatment algorithm for up to three sFMTs, clinical probabilities, and direct costs were used from published sources. Outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs. The healthcare sector perspective was used with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY.

RESULTS

Sequential fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) for FCDI was associated with lower overall cost ($28 309 vs $33 980) and higher QALY (0.765 vs 0.686) compared with standard therapy. sFMT is cost-effective in 100% of iterations. sFMT remained cost-effective at cure rates > 44.8% for the first FMT and at stool preparation cost < $6944 per instillation. We find a wide range of efficacies for the first versus second FMT at which sFMT is still preferred. Value of information analysis estimates the expected value of perfect information to be low at $1.89 per person, quantified with net monetary benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

An sFMT strategy strongly dominates standard therapy, with lower cost and higher QALY. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates benefit even if FMT cure rates are lower than expected and when multiple FMTs are required. FMT material in 2020 was priced at $1695 per treatment but remains cost-effective at a much higher cost.

Belgian population norms for the EQ-5D-5L, 2018

Purpose

Health-related quality of life outcomes are increasingly used to monitor population health and health inequalities and to assess the (cost-) effectiveness of health interventions. The EQ-5D-5L has been included in the Belgian Health Interview Survey, providing a new source of population-based self-perceived health status information. This study aims to estimate Belgian population norms for the EQ-5D-5L by sex, age, and region and to analyze its association with educational attainment.

Methods

The BHIS 2018 provided EQ-5D-5L data for a nationally representative sample of the Belgian population. The dimension scores and index values were analyzed using logistic and linear regressions, respectively, accounting for the survey design.

Results

More than half of respondents reported problems of pain/discomfort, while over a quarter reported problems of anxiety/depression. The average index value was 0.84. Women reported more problems on all dimensions, but particularly on anxiety/depression and pain/discomfort, resulting in significantly lower index values. Problems with mobility, self-care, and usual activities showed a sharp increase after the age of 80 years. Consequently, index values decreased significantly by age. Lower education was associated with a higher prevalence of problems for all dimensions except anxiety/depression and with a significantly lower index value.

Conclusion

This paper presents the first nationally representative Belgian population norms using the EQ-5D-5L. Inclusion of the EQ-5D in future surveys will allow monitoring over time of self-reported health, disease burden, and health inequalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11136-021-02971-6.

Uncertainty Analysis in Intervention Impact on Health Inequality for Resource Allocation Decisions

Cost-effectiveness analysis, routinely used in health care to inform funding decisions, can be extended to consider impact on health inequality. Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) incorporates socioeconomic differences in model parameters to capture how an intervention would affect both overall population health and differences in health between population groups. In DCEA, uncertainty analysis can consider the decision uncertainty around on both impacts (i.e., the probability that an intervention will increase overall health and the probability that it will reduce inequality). Using an illustrative example assessing smoking cessation interventions (2 active interventions and a “no-intervention” arm), we demonstrate how the uncertainty analysis could be conducted in DCEA to inform policy recommendations. We perform value of information (VOI) analysis and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to identify what additional evidence would add most value to the level of confidence in the DCEA results. The analyses were conducted for both national and local authority-level decisions to explore whether the conclusions about decision uncertainty based on the national-level estimates could inform local policy. For the comparisons between active interventions and “no intervention,” there was no uncertainty that providing the smoking cessation intervention would increase overall health but increase inequality. However, there was uncertainty in the direction of both impacts when comparing between the 2 active interventions. VOI and ANCOVA show that uncertainty in socioeconomic differences in intervention effectiveness and uptake contributes most to the uncertainty in the DCEA results. This suggests potential value of collecting additional evidence on intervention-related inequalities for this evaluation. We also found different levels of decision uncertainty between settings, implying that different types and levels of additional evidence are required for decisions in different localities.

Pembrolizumab and lenvatinib versus carboplatin and paclitaxel as first-line therapy for advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer: A Markov analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab/lenvatinib (P/L) versus standard-of-care carboplatin/paclitaxel (C/T) as first-line systemic therapy for patients with advanced/recurrent endometrial cancer.

METHODS

We designed a Markov model to simulate treatment outcomes for advanced/recurrent endometrial cancer patients whose tumors are either microsatellite stable (MSS) or have high microsatellite instability (MSI-high). We adopted a healthcare sector perspective for the analysis. Model inputs for costs, health utility, and clinical estimates were obtained from the literature including data from GOG0209 and KEYNOTE-146. Primary outcomes included costs of care, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The time-horizon was three years and the discount rate was 3% annually.

RESULTS

In a MSS cohort, compared to C/T, first-line treatment with P/L increased treatment costs by $212,670 and decreased QALYs by 0.28 per patient. In a MSI-high cohort, compared to C/T, P/L increased costs by $313,487 and increased QALYs by 0.11 per patient, representing an ICER of $2,849,882 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses found that the price of the new drugs was the most important determinant of the ICER and that the price of the new drugs would need to decrease by 85% to $2817 per cycle to reach a $150,000/QALY threshold.

CONCLUSION

In the MSS model, we found that first-line therapy for advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer with P/L increased costs and worsened outcomes compared to C/T. In the MSI-high model, P/L improved survival and QALYs compared to C/T but was not cost-effective at the current cost of the drugs.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening methods for congenital heart defects in pregnancies conceived by in-vitro fertilization

OBJECTIVES

To determine if a policy of universal fetal echocardiography (echo) in pregnancies conceived by in-vitro fertilization (IVF) is cost-effective as a screening strategy for congenital heart defects (CHDs) and to examine the cost-effectiveness of various other CHD screening strategies in IVF pregnancies.

METHODS

A decision-analysis model was designed from a societal perspective with respect to the obstetric patient, to compare the cost-effectiveness of three screening strategies: (1) anatomic ultrasound (US): selective fetal echo following abnormal cardiac findings on detailed anatomic survey; (2) intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) only: fetal echo for all pregnancies following IVF with ICSI; (3) all IVF: fetal echo for all IVF pregnancies. The model initiated at conception and had a time horizon of 1 year post-delivery. The sensitivities and specificities for each strategy, the probabilities of major and minor CHDs and all other clinical estimates were derived from the literature. Costs, including imaging, consults, surgeries and caregiver productivity losses, were derived from the literature and Medicare databases, and are expressed in USA dollars ($). Effectiveness was quantified as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), based on how the strategies would affect the quality of life of the obstetric patient. Secondary effectiveness was quantified as number of cases of CHD and, specifically, cases of major CHD, detected.

RESULTS

The average base-case cost of each strategy was as follows: anatomic US, $8119; ICSI only, $8408; and all IVF, $8560. The effectiveness of each strategy was as follows: anatomic US, 1.74487 QALYs; ICSI only, 1.74497 QALYs; and all IVF, 1.74499 QALYs. The ICSI-only strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2 840 494 per additional QALY gained when compared to the anatomic-US strategy, and the all-IVF strategy had an ICER of $5 692 457 per additional QALY when compared with the ICSI-only strategy. Both ICERs exceeded considerably the standard willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000-$100 000 per QALY. In a secondary analysis, the ICSI-only strategy had an ICER of $527 562 per additional case of major CHD detected when compared to the anatomic-US strategy. All IVF had an ICER of $790 510 per case of major CHD detected when compared with ICSI only. It was determined that it would cost society five times more to detect one additional major CHD through intensive screening of all IVF pregnancies than it would cost to pay for the neonate's first year of care.

CONCLUSION

The most cost-effective method of screening for CHDs in pregnancies following IVF, either with or without ICSI, is to perform a fetal echo only when abnormal cardiac findings are noted on the detailed anatomy scan. Performing routine fetal echo for all IVF pregnancies is not cost-effective. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Incorporating Baseline Breast Density When Screening Women at Average Risk for Breast Cancer : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Breast density classification is largely determined by mammography, making the timing of the first screening mammogram clinically important.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening strategies that are stratified by breast density.

DESIGN

Microsimulation model to generate the natural history of breast cancer for women with and those without dense breasts and assessment of the cost-effectiveness of strategies tailored to breast density and nontailored strategies.

DATA SOURCES

Model parameters from the literature; statistical modeling; and analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data.

TARGET POPULATION

Women aged 40 years or older.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

No screening; biennial or triennial mammography from age 50 to 75 years; annual mammography from age 50 to 75 years for women with dense breasts at age 50 years and biennial or triennial mammography from age 50 to 75 years for those without dense breasts at age 50 years; and annual mammography at age 40 to 75 years for women with dense breasts at age 40 years and biennial or triennial mammography at age 50 to 75 years for those without dense breasts at age 40 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Baseline screening at age 40 years followed by annual screening at age 40 to 75 years for women with dense breasts and biennial screening at age 50 to 75 years for women without dense breasts was effective and cost-effective, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $36 200 per QALY versus the biennial strategy at age 50 to 75 years.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

At a societal willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY, the probability that the density-stratified strategy at age 40 years was optimal was 56% compared with 6 other strategies.

LIMITATION

Findings may not be generalizable outside the United States.

CONCLUSION

The study findings advocate for breast density-stratified screening with baseline mammography at age 40 years.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute.

Cost-Effectiveness of Multitarget Stool DNA Testing vs Colonoscopy or Fecal Immunochemical Testing for Colorectal Cancer Screening in Alaska Native People

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of multitarget stool DNA testing (MT-sDNA) compared with colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for Alaska Native adults.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A Markov model was used to evaluate the 3 screening test effects over 40 years. Outcomes included colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The study incorporated updated evidence on screening test performance and adherence and was conducted from December 15, 2016, through November 6, 2019.

RESULTS

With perfect adherence, CRC incidence was reduced by 52% (95% CI, 46% to 56%) using colonoscopy, 61% (95% CI, 57% to 64%) using annual FIT, and 66% (95% CI, 63% to 68%) using MT-sDNA. Compared with no screening, perfect adherence screening extends life by 0.15, 0.17, and 0.19 QALYs per person with colonoscopy, FIT, and MT-sDNA, respectively. Colonoscopy is the most expensive strategy: approximately $110 million more than MT-sDNA and $127 million more than FIT. With imperfect adherence (best case), MT-sDNA resulted in 0.12 QALYs per person vs 0.05 and 0.06 QALYs per person by FIT and colonoscopy, respectively. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses supported the base-case analysis. Under varied adherence scenarios, MT-sDNA either dominates or is cost-effective (ICERs, $1740-$75,868 per QALY saved) compared with FIT and colonoscopy.

CONCLUSION

Each strategy reduced costs and increased QALYs compared with no screening. Screening by MT-sDNA results in the largest QALY savings. In Markov model analysis, screening by MT-sDNA in the Alaska Native population was cost-effective compared with screening by colonoscopy and FIT for a wide range of adherence scenarios.