Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV-1 Transmission and AIDS Mortality in Resource-Limited Settings

Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up among HIV-Infected Adults after Initiation of the First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy at Arba Minch General Hospital, Southern Ethiopia: A 5-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) from antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces treatment benefits and leads to treatment failure. Hence, this study was aimed at determining the incidence of loss to follow-up and predictors among HIV-infected adults who began first-line antiretroviral therapy at Arba Minch General Hospital.

Methods

We carried out an institutional-based retrospective cohort study, and data were collected from the charts of 508 patients who were selected using a simple random sampling technique. All the data management and statistical analyses were conducted using STATA version 14. Cumulative survival probability was estimated and presented in the life table, and the Kaplan-Meir survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the independent predictors.

Results

We followed 508 patients for 871.9 person-years. A total of 46 (9.1%) experienced loss to follow-up, yielding an overall incidence rate of 5.3 (95% CI: 3.9-7.1) per 100 person-years. The cumulative survival probability was 90%, 88%, 86%, and 86% at the end of one, two, three, and four years, respectively. The predictors identified were age less than 35 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.92-4.00)), rural residence (aHR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.02-3.83), baseline body weight greater than 60 kilograms (aHR = 2.19; 95% CI: 1.11-4.37), a fair level of adherence (aHR = 11.5; 95% CI: 2.10-61.10), and a poor level of adherence (aHR = 12.03; 95% CI: 5.4-26.7).

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence rate of loss to follow-up was low. Younger adults below the age of 35 years, living in rural areas, with a baseline weight greater than 60 kilograms, which had a fair and poor adherence level were more likely to be lost from treatment. Therefore, health professionals working in ART clinics and potential stakeholders in HIV/AIDS care and treatment should consider adult patients with these characteristics to prevent LTFU.

A packaged intervention to improve viral load monitoring within a deeply rural health district of South Africa

BACKGROUND

The KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province of South Africa has the highest prevalence of HIV infection in the world. Viral load (VL) testing is a crucial tool for clinical and programmatic monitoring. Within uMkhanyakude district, VL suppression rates were 91% among patients with VL data; however, VL performance rates averaged only 38·7%. The objective of this study was to determine if enhanced clinic processes and community outreach could improve VL monitoring within this district.

METHODS

A packaged intervention was implemented at three rural clinics in the setting of the KZN HIV AIDS Drug Resistance Surveillance Study. This included file hygiene, outreach, a VL register and documentation revisions. Chart audits were used to assess fidelity. Outcome measures included percentage VL performed and suppressed. Each rural clinic was matched with a peri-urban clinic for comparison before and after the start of each phase of the intervention. Monthly sample proportions were modelled using quasi-likelihood regression methods for over-dispersed binomial data.

RESULTS

Mkuze and Jozini clinics increased VL performance overall from 33·9% and 35·3% to 75·8% and 72·4%, respectively which was significantly greater than the increases in the comparison clinics (RR 1·86 and 1·68, p < 0·01). VL suppression rates similarly increased overall by 39·3% and 36·2% (RR 1·84 and 1·70, p < 0·01). The Chart Intervention phase showed significant increases in fidelity 16 months after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The packaged intervention improved VL performance and suppression rates overall but was significant in Mkuze and Jozini. Larger sustained efforts will be needed to have a similar impact throughout the province.

Trends over time in HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs in 89 large US metropolitan statistical areas, 1992-2013

PURPOSE

After years of stable or declining HIV prevalence and declining incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States, some rapidly emerging outbreaks have recently occurred in new areas (e.g., Scott County, Indiana). However, to our knowledge, trends over time in HIV prevalence among PWID in US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across all major regions of the country have not been systematically estimated beyond 2002, and the extent to which HIV prevalence may be increasing in other areas is largely unknown. This article estimates HIV prevalence among PWID in 89 of the most populated US MSAs, both overall and by geographic region, using more recent surveillance and HIV testing data.

METHODS

We computed MSA-specific annual estimates of HIV prevalence (both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections) among PWID for these 89 MSAs, for 1992-2013, using several data series from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National HIV Surveillance System and National HIV Prevention Monitoring and Evaluation data; Holmberg's (1997) estimates of 1992 PWID population size and of HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID; and research estimates from published literature using 1992-2013 data. A mixed effects model, with time nested within MSAs, was used to regress the literature review estimates on all of the other data series. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. Resulting estimates were validated using previous 1992-2002 estimates of HIV prevalence and data on antiretroviral (ARV) prescription volumes and examined for patterns based on geographic region, numbers of people tested for HIV, and baseline HIV prevalence.

RESULTS

Mean (across all MSAs) trends over time suggested decreases through 2002 (from approximately 11.4% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2002), followed by a period of stability, and steep increases after 2010 (to 10.6% in 2013). Validation analyses found a moderate positive correlation between our estimates and ARV prescription volumes (r = 0.45), and a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.94) between our estimates and previous estimates by Tempalski et al. (2009) for 1992-2002 (which used different methods). Analysis by region and baseline prevalence suggested that mean increases in later years were largely driven by MSAs in the Western United States and by MSAs in the Midwest that had low baseline prevalence. Our estimates suggest that prevalence decreased across all years in the Eastern United States. These trends were particularly clear when MSAs with very low numbers of people tested for HIV were removed from analyses to reduce unexplained variability in mean trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates suggest a fairly large degree of variation in 1992-2013 trajectories of PWID HIV prevalence among 89 US MSAs, particularly by geographic region. They suggest that public health responses in many MSAs (particularly those with larger HIV prevalence among PWID in the early 1990s) were sufficient to decrease or maintain HIV prevalence over time. However, future research should investigate potential factors driving the estimated increase in prevalence after 2002 MSAs in the West and Midwest. These findings have potentially important implications for program and/or policy decisions, but estimates for MSAs with low HIV testing denominators should be interpreted with caution and verified locally before planning action.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow up among adult HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: A competing risk regression modeling

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow up after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is common in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia and it is a considerable obstacle for the effectiveness of the ART program. Mortality is a competing risk of loss to follow up but it is often overlooked and there is limited evidence about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow up in the presence of competing events.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the Incidence and predictors of loss to follow up among adult HIV patients on ART in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2018.

METHODS

Institution based retrospective follow up study was conducted in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A Gray's test and cumulative incidence curve were used to compare the cumulative incidence function of loss to follow up. Bivariable and multivariable competing risk regression models were fitted to identify the predictors of lost to follow up and those variables with p-value <0.05 in the multivariable analysis was considered as significant predictors of lost to follow up.

RESULT

A total of 531 adult HIV patients on ART were included in the analysis. The incidence rate of loss to follow up in this study was 10.90 (95% CI: 8.9-13.2) per 100 person years. Being age group 15-30 years (aSHR = 2.01; 95%CI;1.11-3.63), being daily laborer(aSHR = 2.60; 95%CI;1.45-4.66), not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (aSHR = 2.66; 95%CI;1.68-4.21), not receiving isoniazid preventive therapy(aSHR = 4.57; 95% CI;1.60-13.08), ambulatory functional status (aSHR = 1.61; 95% CI; 1.02-2.51) and taking AZT-3TC-NVP medication at start of ART(aSHR = 2.01; 95% CI; 1.16-3.78) were significant predictors of lost to follow up.

CONCLUSION

In this study the incidence of lost to follow up was high. Young people, daily laborer, ambulatory patients and those taking AZT-3TC-NVP as well as those who did not take opportunistic prophylaxis were at higher risk of loss to follow up. Therefore, giving special attention to the high-risk groups for lost to follow up highlighted in this study could decrease the rate of LTFU.

Widespread changes in sexual behaviour in eastern and southern Africa: Challenges to achieving global HIV targets? Longitudinal analyses of nationally representative surveys

INTRODUCTION

Sexual behaviour change contributed to reductions in HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa between 1990 and 2010. More recently, there are indications that non-regular partnerships have increased. However, the effect of these increases on population-level risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections could have been reduced by simultaneous increases in condom use. We describe recent trends in sexual behaviour and condom use within the region and assess their combined effects on population levels of sexual risk.

METHODS

Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data on sexually active males and females (15 to 49 years) were used for 11 eastern and southern African countries (≥3 surveys for each country; 1999 to 2016) to describe trends in sexual behaviour (multiple, non-regular, and casual sexual partnerships; condom use; age at first sex). Logistic regressions tested for statistical significance of changes. Analyses were stratified by sex.

RESULTS

Recent increases in multiple, non-regular, and/or casual partnerships can be found for males in 10 countries and, for females, in nine countries; five countries exhibited recent decreases in age of sexual debut. Reduction in sex without condoms with non-regular partners was observed in six countries for males and eight for females. Changes in the proportion of the overall population reporting condomless sex with non-regular partners varied between countries, with declines in six countries and increases in three.

CONCLUSIONS

Extensive change in sexual behaviour occurred across eastern and southern Africa during the period of scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes. This includes increasing multiple and non-regular partnerships, but their potential effects on population-level sexual risks were often offset by parallel increases in condom use. Strengthening condom programmes and reintegrating communication about behavioural dimensions into combination prevention programmes could help countries to meet international targets for reductions in HIV incidence.

Targeting the third '90': introducing the viral load champion

Objective: To move closer to achieving the third target of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals, we prospectively implemented a viral load (VL) champion (VLC) program aimed at enhancing VL monitoring and recognition of treatment failure. Design: Three clinics in eThekwini, Kwa-Zulu Natal (low-, medium- and high-volume, encompassing 9184 patients overall) were each assigned a VLC. We employed a descriptive analysis (chart audit) to compare the pre-intervention period to a 1-year post-intervention period. The number of patients with a VL test performed 6 and 12 months after the intervention was calculated as a proportion of VL tests due at those time points (VL completion rate). Results: The pre-implementation VL completion rate at the three sites was respectively 68% (140/205 patients), 54% (84/155 patients) and 64% (323/504 patients), and the 6-month post-implementation completion rate increased to 83% (995/1194 patients), 90% (793/878 patients) and 99% (3101/3124 patients) (P < 0.0001 for each site). VL completion rates remained significantly higher at 12 months post-implementation, with an average cumulative VL completion rate of >90% across all facilities. Conclusion: We demonstrate a successful, multifaceted, quality-improvement intervention centered on a clinic-level VLC which, taken to scale, has important implications for attaining the third UNAIDS 90-90-90 target.

Predictors of loss to follow up among adult clients attending antiretroviral treatment at Karamara general hospital, Jigjiga town, Eastern Ethiopia, 2015: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Retention in care and adherence to the treatment is very important for the success of the program while access for treatment is being scaled up. Without more precise data about the rate of loss to follow up as well the characteristics of those who disengage from the treatment appropriate interventions to increase ART adherence cannot be designed and implemented. Therefore the aim of this study was to determine incidence and predictors of loss to follow up among adult ART clients attending in Karamara Hospital, Jigjiga town, Eastern Ethiopia, 2015.

Methods

An institutional based retrospective cohort study were undertaken among 1439 adult people living with HIV/AIDS and attending ART clinic between September 1, 2007 and September 1, 2014 at Karamara Hospital was undertaken. Loss to follow up was defined as not taking an ART refill for a period of 90 days or longer from the last attendance for refill and not yet classified as ‘dead’ or ‘transferred-out’. A Kaplan-Meier model was used to estimate rate of time to loss to follow up and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to identify predictors of loss to follow up among ART clients.

Result

Of 1439 patients, 830(58.0%) were females in their sex. The mean age of the cohort was 33.5 years with a standard deviation of 9.33. Around 213 (14.8%) patients were defined as LTFU. The incidence rate of loss to follow up in the cohort was 26.6% (95% CI; 18.1–29.6) per 100 person months. Patients with male sex [HR: 2.1CI;(1.3–3.4)], patients whose next appointment weren’t recorded [HR: 1.2, 95% CI; (1.12–1.36)] and patients who did not disclose their status to any one [HR: 2.8, 95% CI; (2.22–5.23)] were significantly associated with LTFU in the cox proportional model.

Conclusion

Overall, these data suggested that LTFU in this study was high. The ART patients’ next appointment should be documented very well and as well the clients should be advised to adhere with treatment program as per the schedule. Defaulter tracing mechanism should be operational and strengthen in the health facility. Effective control measures should be designed for at-risk population such as male patients.

HIV antiretroviral medication stock-outs in Ghana: contributors and consequences

Drug stock-outs are an unfortunate yet common reality for patients living in low and middle income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where trouble with consistent stock of antiretroviral medications (ARVs) continues. Our study takes a snapshot of this problem in Ghana. Although the country launched its antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in 2003, progress toward realising the full benefit of ART for treated individuals has been limited, in part, because of stock-outs. In Ghana's Greater Accra region, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 women living with HIV (WLHIV) and 15 individuals with a history of HIV-related work in government or non-governmental organisations, or healthcare facilities. We used repeated review with coding and mapping techniques to analyse the transcripts and identify common themes. Stock-outs of ARVs result in inconsistent administration of therapy, increased indirect medical costs for WLHIV, and negative labelling of patients. Inefficiencies in drug supply, poor coordination with port authorities, inadequate government funding and dependence on international aid contribute to the stock-outs experienced in Ghana. Although using ARVs produced in-country could reduce supply problems, the domestically-manufactured product currently does not meet World Health Organization (WHO) standards. We recommend focused efforts to produce WHO standard ARVs in Ghana, and a review of current supply chain management to identify and mend pitfalls in the system.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing and Treatment Engagement Initiatives in British Columbia, Canada: 2011-2013

Background

Recognition of the secondary preventive benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has mobilized global efforts to "seek, test, treat, and retain" people living with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]/AIDS (PLHIV) in HIV care. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of a set of HIV testing and treatment engagement interventions initiated in British Columbia, Canada, in 2011-2013.

Methods

Using a previously validated dynamic HIV transmission model, linked individual-level health administrative data for PLHIV, and aggregate-level HIV testing data, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of primary care testing (hospital, emergency department [ED], outpatient), ART initiation, and ART retention initiatives vs a counterfactual scenario that approximated the status quo. HIV incidence, mortality, costs (in 2015$CDN), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated. Analyses were executed over 5- to 25-year time horizons from a government-payer perspective.

Results

ED testing was the best value at $30216 per QALY gained and had the greatest impact on incidence and mortality among PLHIV, while ART initiation provided the greatest QALY gains. The ART retention initiative was not cost-effective. Delivered in combination at the observed scale and sustained throughout the study period, we estimated a 12.8% reduction in cumulative HIV incidence and a 4.7% reduction in deaths among PLHIV at $55258 per QALY gained. Results were most sensitive to uncertainty in the number of undiagnosed PLHIV.

Conclusions

HIV testing and ART initiation interventions were cost-effective, while the ART retention intervention was not. Developing strategies to reengage PLHIV lost to care is a priority moving forward.

Treatment of HIV for the Prevention of Transmission in Discordant Couples and at the Population Level

The scientific breakthrough proving that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can halt heterosexual HIV transmission came in the form of a landmark clinical trial conducted among serodiscordant couples. Study findings immediately informed global recommendations for the use of treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples. The extent to which these findings are generalizable to other key populations or to groups exposed to HIV through nonsexual transmission routes (i.e., anal intercourse or unsafe injection of drugs) has since driven a large body of research. This review explores the history of HIV research in serodiscordant couples, the implications for management of couples, subsequent research on treatment as prevention in other key populations, and challenges in community implementation of these strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of the 'One4All' HIV Linkage Intervention in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China

BACKGROUND

In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, an estimated 80% of newly-identified antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible patients are not engaged in ART. Delayed ART uptake ultimately translates into high rates of HIV morbidity, mortality, and transmission. To enhance HIV testing receipt and subsequent treatment uptake in Guangxi, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) executed a cluster-randomized trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a streamlined HIV testing algorithm (the One4All intervention) in 12 county-level hospitals.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of the One4All intervention delivered at county hospitals in Guangxi, China, compared to the current standard of care (SOC).

PERSPECTIVE

Health System.

TIME HORIZON

1-, 5-and 25-years.

METHODS

We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to simulate HIV transmission and progression in Guangxi, China and identify the economic impact and health benefits of implementing the One4All intervention in all Guangxi hospitals. The One4All intervention algorithm entails rapid point-of-care HIV screening, CD4 and viral load testing of individuals presenting for HIV screening, with same-day results and linkage to counselling. We populated the model with data from the One4All trial (CTN-0056), China CDC HIV registry and published reports. Model outcomes were HIV incidence, mortality, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the One4All intervention compared to SOC.

RESULTS

The One4All testing intervention was more costly than SOC (CNY 2,182 vs. CNY 846), but facilitated earlier ART access, resulting in delayed disease progression and mortality. Over a 25-year time horizon, we estimated that introducing One4All in Guangxi would result in 802 averted HIV cases and 1629 averted deaths at an ICER of CNY 11,678 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis revealed that One4All remained cost-effective at even minimal levels of effectiveness. Results were robust to changes to a range of parameters characterizing the HIV epidemic over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The One4All HIV testing strategy was highly cost-effective by WHO standards, and should be prioritized for widespread implementation in Guangxi, China. Integrating the intervention within a broader combination prevention strategy would enhance the public health response to HIV/AIDS in Guangxi.

HIV treatment as prevention: contradictory perspectives from dynamic mathematical models

The preventative effects of antiretroviral therapy for people with HIV have been debated since they were first raised. Models commenced studying the preventive effects of treatment in the 1990s, prior to initial public reports. However, the outcomes of the preventive effects of antiretroviral use were not consistent. Some outcomes of dynamic models were based on unfeasible assumptions, such as no consideration of drug resistance, behavior disinhibition, or economic inputs in poor countries, and unrealistic input variables, for example, overstated initiation time, adherence, coverage, and efficacy of treatment. This paper reviewed dynamic mathematical models to ascertain the complex effects of ART on HIV transmission. This review discusses more conservative inputs and outcomes relative to antiretroviral use in HIV infections in dynamic mathematical models. ART alone cannot eliminate HIV transmission.

Trends in all-cause mortality during the scale-up of an antiretroviral therapy programme: a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, Zambia

OBJECTIVE

To follow the trends in all-cause mortality in Lusaka, Zambia, during the scale-up of a national programme of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

Between November 2004 and September 2011, we conducted 12 survey rounds as part of a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, with independent sampling in each round. In each survey, we asked the heads of 3600 households to state the number of deaths in their households in the previous 12 months and the number of orphans aged less than 16 years in their households and investigated the heads' knowledge, attitudes and practices related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

FINDINGS

The number of deaths we recorded - per 100 person-years - in each survey ranged from 0.92 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.78-1.09) in September 2011, to 1.94 (95% CI: 1.60-2.35) in March 2007. We found that mortality decreased only modestly each year (mortality rate ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.95-1.00; P = 0.093). The proportion of households with orphans under the age of 16 years decreased from 17% in 2004 to 7% in 2011. The proportions of respondents who had ever been tested for HIV, had a comprehensive knowledge of HIV, knew where to obtain free ART and reported that a non-pregnant household member was receiving ART gradually increased.

CONCLUSION

The expansion of ART services in Lusaka was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Coverage, patient adherence and retention may all have to be increased if ART is to have a robust and lasting impact at population level in Lusaka.

Development, calibration and performance of an HIV transmission model incorporating natural history and behavioral patterns: application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.

Expanded HIV testing in low-prevalence, high-income countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis for the United Kingdom

Objective

In many high-income countries with low HIV prevalence, significant numbers of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) remain undiagnosed. Identification of PLHIV via HIV testing offers timely access to lifesaving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and decreases HIV transmission. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HIV testing in the United Kingdom (UK), where 25% of PLHIV are estimated to be undiagnosed.

Design

We developed a dynamic compartmental model to analyze strategies to expand HIV testing and treatment in the UK, with particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and individuals from HIV-endemic countries.

Methods

We estimated HIV prevalence, incidence, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and health care costs over 10 years, and cost-effectiveness.

Results

Annual HIV testing of all adults could avert 5% of new infections, even with no behavior change following HIV diagnosis because of earlier ART initiation, or up to 18% if risky behavior is halved. This strategy costs £67,000–£106,000/QALY gained. Providing annual testing only to MSM, PWID, and people from HIV-endemic countries, and one-time testing for all other adults, prevents 4–15% of infections, requires one-fourth as many tests to diagnose each PLHIV, and costs £17,500/QALY gained. Augmenting this program with increased ART access could add 145,000 QALYs to the population over 10 years, at £26,800/QALY gained.

Conclusions

Annual HIV testing of key populations in the UK is very cost-effective. Additional one-time testing of all other adults could identify the majority of undiagnosed PLHIV. These findings are potentially relevant to other low-prevalence, high-income countries.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission: implications for Europe

The aim of this review is to summarise the evidence on the population-level effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing HIV infections, and to discuss potential implications in the European context of recommending starting ART when the CD4 count is above 350 cells/mm3. The ability of ART to reduce the risk of HIV transmission has been reported in observational studies and in a randomised controlled trial (HPTN 052), in which ART initiation reduced HIV transmission by 96% within serodiscordant couples. As yet, there is no direct evidence for such an effect among men having sex with men or people who inject drugs. HPTN 052 led international organisations to develop recommendations with a higher CD4 threshold for ART initiation. However, there remains a lack of strong evidence of clinical benefit for HIV-positive individuals starting ART with CD4 count above 350 cells/mm3. The main goal of ART provision should be to increase ART coverage for all those in need, based on the current guidelines, and the offer of ART to those who wish to reduce infectivity; increased HIV testing is therefore a key requirement. Other proven prevention means such as condom use and harm reduction for people who inject drugs remain critical.

Male, mobile, and moneyed: loss to follow-up vs. transfer of care in an urban African antiretroviral treatment clinic

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to analyze characteristics, reasons for transferring, and reasons for discontinuing care among patients defined as lost to follow-up (LTFU) from an antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic in Nairobi, Kenya.

DESIGN

The study used a prospective cohort of patients who participated in a randomized, controlled ART adherence trial between 2006 and 2008.

METHODS

Participants were followed from pre-ART clinic enrollment to 18 months after ART initiation, and were defined as LTFU if they failed to return to clinic 4 weeks after their last scheduled visit. Reasons for loss were captured through phone call or home visit. Characteristics of LTFU who transferred care and LTFU who did not transfer were compared to those who remained in clinic using log-binomial regression to estimate risk ratios.

RESULTS

Of 393 enrolled participants, total attrition was 83 (21%), of whom 75 (90%) were successfully traced. Thirty-seven (49%) were alive at tracing and 22 (59%) of these reported having transferred their antiretroviral care. In the final model, transfers were more likely to have salaried employment [Risk Ratio (RR), 2.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-6.1; p=0.020)] and pay a higher monthly rent (RR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.3-25.0; p=0.018) compared to those retained in clinic. LTFU who did not transfer care were three times as likely to be men (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-8.1; p=0.028) and nearly 4 times as likely to have a primary education or less (RR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-10.6; p=0.013). Overall, the most common reason for LTFU was moving residence, predominantly due to job loss or change in employment.

CONCLUSION

A broad definition of LTFU may include those who have transferred their antiretroviral care and thereby overestimate negative effects on ART continuation. Interventions targeting men and considering mobility due to employment may improve retention in urban African ART clinics.

CLINICAL TRIALS

The study's ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT00273780.

HIV treatment optimism and its predictors among young adults in southern Malawi

This study measures HIV treatment optimism and its predictors in a representative sample of young adults in southern Malawi. In 2010, 1275 women and 470 men between the ages of 16 and 26 were asked about their exposure to people on antiretroviral therapy (ART), sexual risk behavior, HIV status, and beliefs about ART. We used confirmatory factor analysis to develop a 4-item scale of the belief that HIV is a less serious health threat due to ART (reduced-severity optimism) and used a single measure to capture belief in the reduced infectivity of HIV due to ART (reduced-susceptibility optimism). Overall, respondents reported low levels of HIV treatment optimism. Being female and using ART were the largest predictors of both types of treatment optimism. We found a nonlinear relationship between exposure to people on ART and reduced-severity optimism. People who knew someone on ART but did not discuss it with them had lower levels of reduced-severity optimism than people who did not know anyone on ART and people who regularly discussed treatment with someone on ART. In multivariate regression models, HIV treatment optimism was positively associated with all measures of sexual risk behavior among men, but negatively associated with unprotected sex with a nonprimary partner among women. Our findings suggest that the spread of ART in Malawi has not led to widespread HIV treatment optimism. This may reflect the relatively recent spread of ART, the generalized nature of the HIV epidemic, or the fact that access to ART is complicated by structural limitations that delay treatment and limited availability of second-line medicines.

A literature review of reporting standards of HIV progression models

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review of HIV progression models to identify the mathematical structures used, the main research questions and key model aspects in terms of quality and robustness.

METHODS

We searched for articles published before February 2009 that described models of HIV progression in humans. We included two strategies of search with and without MeSH terms. We classified the models by their mathematical structure and research question. We created a checklist of desirable features of the models, reviewed and classified the articles to inform our conclusions.

RESULTS

Among 3491 articles found, 93 met the inclusion criteria. Among the selected articles, 60 used transition models, 25 applied differential equations, and eight had other structures. We did not find a relation between the type of question explored and the modeling method used. None of the studies complied with the complete set of items in the checklist, but 6.5% cover at least 90% of them.

CONCLUSION

There is an enormous heterogeneity of HIV modeling exercises in terms of methods used and topics addressed, as well as in the presentation of key aspects of the articles in terms of quality and robustness.

The cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in the United States in men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

A recent randomized, controlled trial showed that daily oral preexposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) was effective for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men (MSM). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently provided interim guidance for PrEP in MSM at high risk for HIV. Previous studies did not reach a consistent estimate of its cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PrEP in MSM in the United States.

DESIGN

Dynamic model of HIV transmission and progression combined with a detailed economic analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

MSM aged 13 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM population and in high-risk MSM and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 44% on the basis of clinical trial results.

OUTCOME MEASURES

New HIV infections, discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Initiating PrEP in 20% of MSM in the United States would reduce new HIV infections by an estimated 13% and result in a gain of 550,166 QALYs over 20 years at a cost of $172,091 per QALY gained. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM would prevent more infections but at an increasing cost per QALY gained (up to $216,480 if all MSM receive PrEP). Preexposure chemoprophylaxis in only high-risk MSM can improve cost-effectiveness. For MSM with an average of 5 partners per year, PrEP costs approximately $50,000 per QALY gained. Providing PrEP to all high-risk MSM for 20 years would cost $75 billion more in health care-related costs than the status quo and $600,000 per HIV infection prevented, compared with incremental costs of $95 billion and $2 million per infection prevented for 20% coverage of all MSM.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

PrEP in the general MSM population would cost less than $100,000 per QALY gained if the daily cost of antiretroviral drugs for PrEP was less than $15 or if PrEP efficacy was greater than 75%.

LIMITATION

When examining PrEP in high-risk MSM, the investigators did not model a mix of low- and high-risk MSM because of lack of data on mixing patterns.

CONCLUSION

PrEP in the general MSM population could prevent a substantial number of HIV infections, but it is expensive. Use in high-risk MSM compares favorably with other interventions that are considered cost-effective but could result in annual PrEP expenditures of more than $4 billion.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse, Department of Veterans Affairs, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The use of preexposure treatments for HIV prophylaxis

Infection with human immunodeficiency virus remains a global concern with a significant number of incident infections still reported worldwide. The use of prophylaxis prior to exposure to the virus to prevent infection has been a growing area of recent research. Results in nonhuman primates and clinical trials in high-risk patient populations using preexposure prophylaxis have shown promising results in terms of efficacy and safety, especially relating to oral preexposure prophylaxis. The potential use of oral antiretroviral agents traditionally used for human immunodeficiency virus treatment as prophylaxis raises interesting considerations, such as the best agents available for such a role, long-term safety in healthy individuals, and the potential development of resistance to these agents should infection occur. From a public health perspective, the cost-effectiveness of implementing this preventive strategy has not been fully defined at this point in time.

HIV screening via fourth-generation immunoassay or nucleic acid amplification test in the United States: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

At least 10% of the 56,000 annual new HIV infections in the United States are caused by individuals with acute HIV infection (AHI). It unknown whether the health benefits and costs of routine nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) are justified, given the availability of newer fourth-generation immunoassay tests.

Methods

Using a dynamic HIV transmission model instantiated with U.S. epidemiologic, demographic, and behavioral data, I estimated the number of acute infections identified, HIV infections prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies. I varied the target population (everyone aged 15-64, injection drug users [IDUs] and men who have sex with men [MSM], or MSM only), screening frequency (annually, or every six months), and test(s) utilized (fourth-generation immunoassay only, or immunoassay followed by pooled NAAT).

Results

Annual immunoassay testing of MSM reduces incidence by 9.5% and costs <$10,000 per QALY gained. Adding pooled NAAT identifies 410 AHI per year, prevents 9.6% of new cases, costs $92,000 per QALY gained, and remains <$100,000 per QALY gained in settings where undiagnosed HIV prevalence exceeds 4%. Screening IDUs and MSM annually with fourth-generation immunoassay reduces incidence by 13% with cost-effectiveness <$10,000 per QALY gained. Increasing the screening frequency to every six months reduces incidence by 11% (MSM only) or 16% (MSM and IDUs) and costs <$20,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

Pooled NAAT testing every 12 months of MSM and IDUs in the United States prevents a modest number of infections, but may be cost-effective given sufficiently high HIV prevalence levels. However, testing via fourth-generation immunoassay every six months prevents a greater number of infections, is more economically efficient, and may obviate the benefits of acute HIV screening via NAAT.

HIV testing: the cornerstone of HIV prevention efforts in the USA

An estimated 1.2 million persons in the USA are infected with HIV, of whom approximately 20% are unaware they are infected. HIV testing and knowledge of HIV serostatus have important individual and public health benefits, including reduction of morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Although testing is the necessary first step to prevention, more than half of the US adult population has never been tested for HIV. However, this proportion is increasing due to revised national recommendations to make HIV testing a routine part of healthcare, expansion of testing efforts at local, state and national levels, and progress in the development and adoption of new testing technologies. In this article, we describe the essential role of HIV testing as a public health prevention strategy, examine recent advances in HIV testing technologies and testing implementation, and identify future directions for HIV testing in the USA.

Preexposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention

Reducing the incidence of HIV remains one of our greatest public health challenges. However, there is growing optimism that preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could have a major impact on preventing incident HIV infection. Recently presented data on the use of oral PrEP in men who have sex with men (MSM) have provided proof-of-principle for this strategy. Additional clinical trials are evaluating whether PrEP provides similar protection to risk groups other than MSM, such as heterosexual persons and injection drug users. Still unanswered questions include optimal dosing strategies, long-term safety, maximizing adherence and minimizing costs, addressing drug resistance in the face of PrEP failure, optimizing access, and assessing effects on risk behavior. Future implementation will be guided by the results of clinical trials in progress. This article provides a review of the data on the potential strengths and limitations of PrEP as an HIV prevention strategy, identifies challenges to implementation of this approach, and outlines knowledge gaps.

Uptake of biomedical interventions for prevention of sexually transmitted HIV

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

To examine the population-level effects of introducing and/or expanding biomedical interventions for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sexually transmitted infections through mathematical modeling.

RECENT FINDINGS

Successes of several ground-breaking clinical trials have invigorated the field of HIV prevention with new enthusiasm and opportunities for research into and application of biomedical HIV prevention. Mathematical modeling has advanced in tandem with valuable contributions to both investigative science and public health. New models provide qualitative and quantitative insights regarding the epidemiological impact of the uptake of biomedical interventions, singly and/or in combination including treatment of sexually transmitted infections, condom use, male circumcision, antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis and vaccine for HIV prevention.

SUMMARY

Biomedical interventions are critical for reversing the HIV pandemic. Mathematical modeling is invaluable for informed biomedical HIV prevention research, policy and practice.

The impact of the new WHO antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in South Africa

Background

Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs.

Methods and Finding

We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years.

Conclusions

Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

'Test-and-treat': the end of the HIV epidemic?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim is to review recent literature on 'test-and-treat', a prevention strategy that promotes high levels of HIV testing and initiating antiretroviral therapy upon diagnosis, regardless of CD4 cell count. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to dramatically reduce viral load which is strongly associated with the risk of transmission, therefore there is the potential to reduce HIV transmissions with ART.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent papers from observational studies on heterosexual sero-discordant couples found an overall rate of transmission of HIV-1 from ART-treated patients of 0.46 per 100 person-years, confirming the possibility of using ART as a prevention strategy. Several models have been used to predict the effect of this strategy and the potential risks of it. Randomized controlled trials are currently ongoing investigating the effect of ART on reducing infectiousness and the feasibility of this policy.

SUMMARY

More precise estimations of the transmission risk under virally suppressive ART (especially in MSM) and of change in sex risk behaviour at diagnosis and at start of ART are needed. Further, the benefit to individual health of very early ART initiation and the feasibility of this policy need to be evaluated. Achieving very high levels of testing should be a high priority due to the benefits of initiating ART in all those who are in need (CD4 cell count < 350 cells/μl) and potential benefits on incidence due to reductions in risk behaviour in those diagnosed. Use of ART immediately at diagnosis in those with high CD4 cell counts should await results from further studies.

The cost-effectiveness of a modestly effective HIV vaccine in the United States

BACKGROUND

The recent RV144 clinical trial showed that an ALVAC/AIDSVAX prime-boost HIV vaccine regimen may confer partial immunity in recipients and reduce transmission by 31%. Trial data suggest that efficacy may initially exceed 70% but decline over the following 3.5 years. Estimating the potential health benefits associated with a one-time vaccination campaign, as well as the projected benefits of repeat booster vaccination, may inform future HIV vaccine research and licensing decisions.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model to project the future course of the HIV epidemic in the United States under varying HIV vaccine scenarios. The model accounts for disease progression, infection transmission, antiretroviral therapy, and HIV-related morbidity and mortality. We projected HIV prevalence and incidence over time in multiple risk groups, and we estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs over a 10-year time horizon. We assumed an exponentially declining efficacy curve fit to trial data, and that subsequent vaccine boosters confer similar immunity. Variations in vaccine parameters were examined in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Under existing HIV prevention and treatment efforts, an estimated 590,000 HIV infections occur over 10 years. One-time vaccination achieving 60% coverage of adults could prevent 9.8% of projected new infections over 10 years (and prevent 34% of new infections in the first year) and cost approximately $91,000/QALY gained relative to the status quo, assuming $500 per vaccination series. Targeted vaccination strategies result in net cost savings for vaccines costing less than $750. One-time vaccination of 60% of all adults coupled with three-year boosters only for men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs could prevent 21% of infections for $81,000/QALY gained relative to vaccination of higher risk sub-populations only. A program attaining 90% vaccination coverage prevents 15% of new HIV cases over 10 years (and approximately 50% of infections in the first year).

CONCLUSIONS

A partially effective HIV vaccine with effectiveness similar to that observed in the RV144 trial would provide large health benefits in the United States and could meet conventionally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. Strategies that prioritize key populations are most efficient, but broader strategies provide greater total population health benefit.

Sexual risk taking among patients on antiretroviral therapy in an urban informal settlement in Kenya: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Our intention was to analyze demographic and contextual factors associated with sexual risk taking among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Africa's largest informal urban settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional survey in a resource-poor, urban informal settlement in Nairobi; 515 consecutive adult patients on ART attending the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Kibera in Nairobi were included in the study. Interviewers used structured questionnaires covering socio-demographic characteristics, time on ART, number of sexual partners during the previous six months and consistency of condom use.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight percent of patients reported inconsistent condom use. Female patients were significantly more likely than men to report inconsistent condom use (aOR 3.03; 95% CI 1.60-5.72). Shorter time on ART was significantly associated with inconsistent condom use. Multiple sexual partners were more common among married men than among married women (adjusted OR 4.38; 95% CI 1.82-10.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Inconsistent condom use was especially common among women and patients who had recently started ART, i.e., when the risk of HIV transmission is higher. Having multiple partners was quite common, especially among married men, with the potential of creating sexual networks and an increased risk of HIV transmission. ART needs to be accompanied by other preventive interventions to reduce the risk of new HIV infections among sero-discordant couples and to increase overall community effectiveness.

The cost-effectiveness and population outcomes of expanded HIV screening and antiretroviral treatment in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

The cost-effectiveness and population outcomes of expanded HIV screening and antiretroviral treatment in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Postexposure prophylaxis, preexposure prophylaxis or universal test and treat: the strategic use of antiretroviral drugs to prevent HIV acquisition and transmission

This review considers the use of antiretroviral drugs specifically to prevent HIV transmission. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can be implemented for the protection of uninfected individuals both before (preexposure prophylaxis) and after (postexposure prophylaxis) exposure to HIV infection. Preexposure prophylaxis may be used coitally dependently when individuals are intermittently exposed or by continuous daily dosing for those constantly exposed; postexposure prophylaxis is used in 28-day courses. Alternatively, ART can be used strategically to reduce the viral load and consequent infectiousness of an HIV-infected individual, thereby limiting the risk of onward viral transmission. A policy of universal HIV testing to enhance the identification of all HIV-positive individuals followed by immediate treatment of all HIV-positive individuals, irrespective of their CD4 cell counts (universal test and treat), has been postulated as a potential tool capable of reducing HIV incidence at a population level. This concept represents a paradigm shift in the use of ART, targeting infectious individuals for prevention rather than protecting uninfected exposed populations. This strategy could have the advantage of preventing transmission and reducing HIV incidence at a population level, as well as delivering universal access to therapy for all people living with HIV and AIDS, potentially eliminating mother-to-child HIV transmission and limiting concomitant diseases such as tuberculosis. This review critically examines the scientific basis of ART for HIV prevention, summarizing the risks and opportunities of the potential expansion of ART for prevention. Specifically, we consider the evidences for and against targeting HIV-uninfected individuals compared with enhanced HIV testing and treatment of HIV-infected individuals in terms of impact on viral transmission.

Two-year follow-up of sexual behavior among HIV-uninfected household members of adults taking antiretroviral therapy in Uganda: no evidence of disinhibition

This paper examines HIV risk behavior among HIV-uninfected adults living with people taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda. A prospective cohort of 455 HIV-uninfected non-spousal household members of ART patients receiving home-based AIDS care was enrolled. Sexual behavior, HIV risk perceptions, AIDS-related anxiety, and the perception that AIDS is curable were assessed at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months. Generalized linear mixture models were used to model risk behavior over time and to identify behavioral correlates. Overall, risky sex decreased from 29% at baseline to 15% at 24-months. Among women, risky sex decreased from 31% at baseline to 10% at 6 months and 15% at 24 months. Among men, risky sex decreased from 30% at baseline to 8% at 6 months and 13% at 24 months. Perceiving HIV/AIDS as curable and lower AIDS-related anxiety were independently associated with risky sex. No evidence of behavioral disinhibition was observed. Concerns regarding behavioral disinhibition should not slow down efforts to increase ART access in Africa.

Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact.

RECENT FINDINGS

We use mathematical modelling of 'universal test and treat' as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission.

SUMMARY

Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, whereas complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and, thus, be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis in which assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.

How HIV treatment could result in effective prevention

As the number of HIV infections continues to surpass treatment capacity, new HIV prevention strategies are imperative. Beyond individual clinical benefits, by rendering an individual less infectious, expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) could also have a larger public health impact of curbing new HIV infections. Recent guidelines have moved towards initiating HAART at higher CD4 cell counts, thus increasing the number of individuals in need of treatment. A new treatment strategy is wanting that can simultaneously curb the epidemic and provide necessary treatment to those most in need. A recent debate has centered on whether an expansion of free and universal treatment, regardless of CD4 cell count, could be a means of HIV prevention. In light of the growing access to HAART in resource-limited settings and increasing evidence suggesting the clinical and prevention benefits of initiating treatment at higher CD4 cell counts, it is conceivable that, in the future, HAART will be an integral part of both individual-level clinical treatment programs as well as public health-based HIV prevention interventions.

Expanding HAART treatment to all currently eligible individuals under the 2008 IAS-USA Guidelines in British Columbia, Canada

Background

In 2008, the IAS-USA published the revised guidelines for the use of HAART in adults substantially increasing the number of individuals eligible for HAART. The epidemic in British Columbia (BC) is mainly among men who have sex with men and those with injection drug use. Here, we explored the potential impact of different HAART coverage scenarios, based on the new guidelines, on the HIV-related incidence, morbidity and mortality in BC, Canada.

Methodology

We built a mathematical transmission model to investigate different HAART coverage scenarios (50%, 60%, 75% and 100%) of those medically eligible to receive HAART under the 2008 IAS guidelines. All new scenarios were compared to the current coverage in BC under the 2006 IAS guidelines (i.e. baseline scenario). In BC, it is estimated that 25–30% of individuals are unaware of their status. Costs were drug-related and reported in Canadian dollars. HIV-related morbidity and mortality were estimated based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) methodology.

Principal Findings

Currently, there are 4379 individuals on HAART under the IAS 2006 guidelines and 6781 individuals who qualify for treatment based on the new guidelines. Within 5 years, increasing HAART coverage decreased yearly new infections by at least 44.8%. In the 50% scenario, in 5 years, DALY decreased by 53% corresponding to 4155 averted DALYs, and in 25 years it decreased by 66% corresponding to 5837 averted DALYs. The effect was even stronger if the 75% scenario was chosen instead. Compared to the 100% expansion scenario, we observed an excess in annual direct treatment expenditures at the end of 5 years of approximately 1 million dollars in the 75% scenario, and of approximately 2 million dollars in the 50% scenario.

Conclusions/Significance

The individual and public health benefits of these new guidelines are immense. The results show that by increasing the number of individuals on HAART save lives, it is cost averting, and it positively impacts society by decreasing the number of new HIV infections. Thus, public health community should consider incremental gains when considering guidelines and policy.

27 years of the HIV epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands: an in depth mathematical model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

There has been increasing concern about a resurgent epidemic of HIV-1 amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands, which has parallels with similar epidemics now occurring in many other countries.

METHODS

A transmission model applicable to HIV-1 epidemics, including the use of antiretroviral therapy, is presented in a set of ordinary differential equations. The model is fitted by maximum likelihood to national HIV-1 and AIDS diagnosis data from 1980 to 2006, estimating parameters on average changes in unsafe sex and time to diagnosis. Robustness is studied with a detailed univariate sensitivity analysis, and a range of hypothetical scenarios are explored for the past and next decade.

RESULTS

With a reproduction number around the epidemic threshold one, the HIV-1 epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands is still not under control. Scenario analysis showed that in the absence of antiretroviral therapy limiting infectiousness in treated patients, the epidemic could have been more than double its current size. Ninety percent of new HIV transmissions are estimated to take place before diagnosis of the index case. Decreasing time from infection to diagnosis, which was 2.5 years on average in 2006, can prevent many future infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Sexual risk behaviour amongst men having sex with men who are not aware of their infection is the most likely factor driving this epidemic.

A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China

Background

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are much more likely to be infected with HIV than the general population. China has a sizable population of MSM, including gay, bisexual men, money boys and some rural workers. So reducing HIV infection in this population is an important component of the national HIV/AIDS prevention and control program.

Methods

We develop a mathematical model using a sex-role-preference framework to predict HIV infection in the MSM population and to evaluate different intervention strategies.

Results

An analytic formula for the basic reproduction ratio R₀ was obtained; this yields R₀ = 3.9296 in the current situation, so HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population if no intervention measure is implemented in a timely fashion. The persistence of HIV infection and the existence of disease equilibrium (or equilibria) are also shown. We utilized our model to simulate possible outcomes of antiretroviral therapy and vaccination for the MSM population. We compared the effects of these intervention measures under different assumptions about MSM behaviour. We also found that R₀ is a decreasing function of the death rate of HIV-infected individuals, following a power law at least asymptotically.

Conclusion

HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population unless intervention measures are implemented urgently. Antiretroviral therapy can have substantial impact on the reduction of HIV among the MSM population, even if disinhibition is considered. The effect of protected sexual behaviour on controlling the epidemic in the MSM population largely depends on the sex-ratio preference of different sub-populations.

Behavioral mechanisms in HIV epidemiology and prevention: past, present, and future roles

In the 1980s, behavioral variations across geographically and socially defined populations were the central focus of AIDS research, and behavior change was seen as the primary means of controlling HIV epidemics. Today, biological mechanisms--especially other sexually transmitted infections, antiretroviral therapy, and male circumcision--predominate in HIV epidemiology and prevention. We describe several reasons for this shift in emphasis. Although the shift is understandable, we argue for a sustained focus on behavioral mechanisms in HIV research in order to realize the theoretical promise of interventions targeting the biological aspects of HIV risk. We also provide evidence to suggest that large reductions in HIV prevalence may be accomplished by small changes in behavior. Moreover, we contend that behavioral mechanisms will find their proper place in HIV epidemiology and prevention only when investigators adopt a conceptual model that treats prevalence as a determinant as well as an outcome of behavior and that explicitly recognizes the dynamic interdependence between behavior and other epidemiological and demographic parameters.

Adult mortality and antiretroviral treatment roll-out in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To investigate trends in adult mortality in a population serviced by a public-sector antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in rural South Africa using a demographic surveillance system.

METHODS

Verbal autopsies were conducted for all 7930 deaths observed between January 2000 and December 2006 in a demographic surveillance population of 74,500 in the Umkhanyakude district of northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Age-standardized mortality rate ratios (SMRRs) were calculated for adults aged 25 to 49 years, the group most affected by HIV, for the 2 years before 2004 and the 3 subsequent years, during which ART had been available.

FINDINGS

Between 2002-2003 (the period before ART) and 2004-2006 (the period after ART), HIV-related age-standardized mortality declined significantly, from 22.52 to 17.58 per 1000 person-years in women 25-49 years of age (P < 0.001; SMRR: 0.780; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.691-0.881), and from 26.46 to 18.68 per 1000 person-years in men 25-49 years of age (P < 0.001; SMRR: 0.706; 95% CI: 0.615-0.811). On sensitivity analysis the results were robust to the possible effect of misclassification of HIV-related deaths.

CONCLUSION

Overall population mortality and HIV-related adult mortality declined significantly following ART roll-out in a community with a high prevalence of HIV infection. A clear public health message of the benefits of treatment, as revealed by these findings, should be part of a multi-faceted strategy to encourage people to find out their HIV serostatus and seek care.

Maraviroc concentrates in the cervicovaginal fluid and vaginal tissue of HIV-negative women

OBJECTIVE

To compare single- and multiple-dose maraviroc exposures in cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) and vaginal tissue (VT) with blood plasma (BP) and quantify maraviroc protein binding in CVF.

DESIGN

Open-label pharmacokinetic study.

METHODS

In 12 HIV-negative women, 7 paired CVF and BP samples were collected over 12 hours after 1 maraviroc dose. Subjects then received maraviroc twice daily for 7 days. After the last dose, subjects underwent CVF and BP sampling as on day 1, with additional sampling during terminal elimination. VT biopsies were obtained at steady state.

RESULTS

Day 1 and day 7 median maraviroc CVF AUCtau were 1.9- and 2.7-fold higher, respectively, than BP. On day 1, 6 of 12 subjects had detectable maraviroc CVF concentrations within 1 hour; 12 of 12 were detectable within 2 hours, and all exceeded the protein-free IC90. On day 7, maraviroc CVF protein binding was 7.6% and the VT AUCtau was 1.9-fold higher than BP. Maraviroc CVF concentrations 72 hours after dose and BP concentrations 12 hours after dose were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher maraviroc exposure in the female genital tract provides a pharmacologic basis for further evaluation of chemokine receptor 5 antagonists in HIV infection prophylaxis. This is the first study to report antiretroviral VT concentrations, CVF protein binding, and CVF terminal elimination.

Potential population health outcomes and expenditures of HIV vaccination strategies in the United States

Estimating the potential health benefits and expenditures of a partially effective HIV vaccine is an important consideration in the debate about whether HIV vaccine research should continue. We developed an epidemic model to estimate HIV prevalence, new infections, and the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the U.S. Vaccines with modest efficacy could prevent 300,000-700,000 HIV infections and save $30 billion in healthcare expenditures over 20 years. Targeted vaccination of high-risk individuals is economically efficient, but difficulty in reaching these groups may mitigate these benefits. Universal vaccination is cost-effective for vaccines with 50% efficacy and price similar to other infectious disease vaccines.

Comparison of emergency department HIV testing data with visit or patient as the unit of analysis

OBJECTIVES

Outcomes in an episodic care setting like an emergency department (ED) are traditionally evaluated in comparison with the number of visits as opposed to the number of unique patients, although patients commonly present to the ED multiple times. We examined the differences in HIV screening programme outcomes that would occur if the analysis were conducted at the patient-level, rather than the traditional visit-level. We hypothesized that while our ED-based HIV screening programme does test some patients repeatedly, the primary programme outcome of percent positive is not substantially altered by the unit of analysis.

METHODS

We reviewed the clinical database of an ED HIV screening programme at a large, urban, teaching hospital in the United States from 2003-2007. Data were analyzed descriptively. The main outcome measure was the rate of positive test results computed with either the visit or the patient as the unit of analysis.

RESULTS

HIV testing was provided at 9629 visits, representing 8450 unique patients. For patient-level analysis, the proportion of patients found to be positive was 0.91%. For visit-level analysis, the proportion of tests with positive results was 0.83%. Of the 910 patients with repeat testing, 7 (0.77%) were identified as positive at a repeat test. The median time between tests was 383 days (range 1-1742).

CONCLUSIONS

Results changed little regardless of whether unique patients or unique visits were used as the unit of analysis. Any differences in positive rates were mitigated by the contribution of repeat testing to the identification of newly infected patients. Given these findings, and the difficulty of tracking repeat testing over time, visit-level analysis are appropriate for comparing programme outcomes when detailed modeling of epidemiology, cost, and/or outcomes is not required.

Association of attitudes and beliefs towards antiretroviral therapy with HIV-seroprevalence in the general population of Kisumu, Kenya

Background

Since antiretroviral therapy (ART) became available in the developed world, the prevalence of unprotected sex and the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV have increased. We hypothesized that a similar phenomenon may be occurring in sub-Saharan Africa concomitant with the scale-up of HIV treatment.

Methods

We conducted a general population-based survey in Kisumu, Kenya. Participants completed an interview that included demographics as well as ART-related attitudes and beliefs (AB) and then underwent HIV serological testing. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of AB about ART indicated two factors: 1) ART-related risk compensation (increased sexual risk taking now that ART is available); and 2) a perception that HIV is more controllable now that ART is available. Logistic regression was used to determine associations of these factors with HIV-seroprevalence after controlling for age.

Findings

1,655 (90%) of 1,844 people aged 15–49 contacted, including 749 men and 906 women, consented to participate in the study. Most participants (n = 1164; 71%) had heard of ART. Of those who had heard of ART, 23% believed ART was a cure for HIV. ART-related risk compensation (Adjusted (A)OR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.16–1.81), and a belief that ART cures HIV (AOR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.22–3.76) were associated with an increased HIV seroprevalence in men but not women after controlling for age. In particular, ART-related risk compensation was associated with an increased HIV-seroprevalence in young (aged 15–24 years) men (OR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.12–2.19).

Conclusions

ART-related risk compensation and a belief that ART cures HIV were associated with an increased HIV seroprevalence among men but not women. HIV prevention programs in sub-Saharan Africa that target the general population should include educational messages about ART and address the changing beliefs about HIV in the era of greater ART availability.

Estimating the lost benefits of antiretroviral drug use in South Africa

South Africa is one of the countries most severely affected by HIV/AIDS. At the peak of the epidemic, the government, going against consensus scientific opinion, argued that HIV was not the cause of AIDS and that antiretroviral (ARV) drugs were not useful for patients and declined to accept freely donated nevirapine and grants from the Global Fund. Using modeling, we compared the number of persons who received ARVs for treatment and prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission between 2000 and 2005 with an alternative of what was reasonably feasible in the country during that period. More than 330,000 lives or approximately 2.2 million person-years were lost because a feasible and timely ARV treatment program was not implemented in South Africa. Thirty-five thousand babies were born with HIV resulting in 1.6 million person-years lost by not implementing a mother-to-child transmission prophylaxis program using nevirapine. The total lost benefits of ARVs are at least 3.8 million person-years for the period 2000-2005.

Prevention of the sexual transmission of HIV-1: preparing for success

There are four opportunities for HIV prevention: before exposure, at the moment of exposure, immediately after exposure, and as secondary prevention focused on infected subjects. Until recently, most resources have been directed toward behavioral strategies aimed at preventing exposure entirely. Recognizing that these strategies are not enough to contain the epidemic, investigators are turning their attention to post-exposure prevention opportunities. There is increasing focus on the use of ART–either systemic or topical (microbicides)–to prevent infection at the moment of exposure. Likewise, there is growing evidence that ART treatment of infected people could serve as prevention as well. A number of ongoing clinical trials will shed some light on the potential of these approaches. Above all, prevention of HIV requires decision-makers to focus resources on strategies that are most effective. Finally, treatment of HIV and prevention of HIV must be considered and deployed together.

Expanded access to highly active antiretroviral therapy: a potentially powerful strategy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic

We developed a mathematical model using a multiple source of infection framework to assess the potential effect of the expansion of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) coverage among those in medical need on the number of individuals testing newly positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and on related costs in British Columbia, Canada, over the next 25 years. The model was calibrated using retrospective data describing antiretroviral therapy utilization and individuals testing newly positive for HIV in the province. Different scenarios were investigated on the basis of varying assumptions regarding drug resistance, adherence to HAART, therapeutic guidelines, degree of HAART coverage, and the timing of HAART uptake. Expansion of HAART lead to substantial reductions in the growth of the HIV epidemic and related costs. These results provide powerful additional motivation to accelerate the roll out of HAART programs aggressively targeting those in medical need, both for their own benefit and as a means of decreasing new HIV infections.