Life Expectancy and Metastatic Spine Scoring Systems: An Academic Institutional Experience

Predicting 30-day mortality after surgery for metastatic disease of the spine: the H2-FAILS score

PURPOSE

Scoring systems for metastatic spine disease focus on predicting long- to medium-term mortality or a combination of perioperative morbidity and mortality. However, accurate prediction of perioperative mortality alone may be the most important factor when considering surgical intervention. We aimed to develop and evaluate a new tool, the H2-FAILS score, to predict 30-day mortality after surgery for metastatic spine disease.

METHODS

Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified 1195 adults who underwent surgery for metastatic spine disease from 2010 to 2018. Incidence of 30-day mortality was 8.7% (n = 104). Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were used to derive the H2-FAILS score. H2-FAILS is an acronym for: Heart failure (2 points), Functional dependence, Albumin deficiency, International normalized ratio elevation, Leukocytosis, and Smoking (1 point each). Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The H2-FAILS score was compared with the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification (ASA Class), the 5-item modified Frailty Index (mFI-5), and the New England Spinal Metastasis Score (NESMS). Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. Alpha = 0.05.

RESULTS

Predicted 30-day mortality was 1.8% for an H2-FAILS score of 0 and 78% for a score of 6. AUC of the H2-FAILS was 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.81), which was higher than the mFI-5 (AUC 0.58, p < 0.001), ASA Class (AUC 0.63, p < 0.001), and NESMS (AUC 0.70, p = 0.004). Internal validation showed an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.76.

CONCLUSIONS

The H2-FAILS score accurately predicts 30-day mortality after surgery for spinal metastasis.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic level III.

The Prediction of Survival after Surgical Management of Bone Metastases of the Extremities—A Comparison of Prognostic Models

Individualized survival prognostic models for symptomatic patients with appendicular metastatic bone disease are key to guiding clinical decision-making for the orthopedic surgeon. Several prognostic models have been developed in recent years; however, most orthopedic surgeons have not incorporated these models into routine practice. This is possibly due to uncertainty concerning their accuracy and the lack of comparison publications and recommendations. Our aim was to conduct a review and quality assessment of these models. A computerized literature search in MEDLINE, EMBASE and PubMed up to February 2022 was done, using keywords: “Bone metastasis”, “survival”, “extremity” and “prognosis”. We evaluated each model’s performance, assessing the estimated discriminative power and calibration accuracy for the analyzed patients. We included 11 studies out of the 1779 citations initially retrieved. The 11 studies included seven different models for estimating survival. Among externally validated survival prediction scores, PATHFx 3.0, 2013-SPRING and potentially Optimodel were found to be the best models in terms of performance. Currently, it is still a challenge to recommend any of the models as the standard for predicting survival for these patients. However, some models show better performance status and other quality characteristics. We recommend future, large, multicenter, prospective studies to compare between PATHfx 3.0, SPRING 2013 and OptiModel using the same external validation dataset.

Perioperative mortality of metastatic spinal disease with unknown primary: A case report and review of literature

BACKGROUND

Spinal metastases are common in patients with malignancies, but studies on those metastasized from unknown primaries are scarce due to the difficulty in treatment and the relatively poor prognosis. Knowledge of surgical complications, particularly perioperative mortality, in patients with spinal metastases from unidentified sources is still insufficient.

CASE SUMMARY

A 54-year-old man with chest-back pain was diagnosed with spinal metastasis in the seventh thoracic vertebra (T7). Radiographic examinations, as well as needle biopsy and immunohistochemical tests were performed to verify the characteristics of the lesion, resulting in an inconclusive diagnosis of poorly differentiated cancer from an unknown primary lesion. Therefore, spinal surgery was performed using the posterior approach to relieve symptoms and verify the diagnosis. Postoperative histologic examination indicated that this poorly differentiated metastatic cancer was possibly sarcomatoid carcinoma. As the patient experienced unexpectedly fast progression of the disease and died 16 d after surgery, the origin of this metastasis was undetermined. We discuss this case with respect to reported perioperative mortality in similar cases.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive assessment prior to surgical decision-making is essential to reduce perioperative mortality risk in patients with spinal metastases from an unknown origin.

Different roles of matrix metalloproteinase 2 in osteolysis of skeletal dysplasia and bone metastasis (Review)

Matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2) is a well-characterized protein that is indispensable for extracellular matrix remodeling and other pathological processes, such as tumor progression and skeletal dysplasia. Excessive activation of MMP2 promotes osteolytic metastasis and bone destruction in late-stage cancers, while its loss-of-function mutations result in the decreased bone mineralization and generalized osteolysis occurring progressively in skeletal developmental disorders, particularly in multicentric osteolysis, nodulosis and arthropathy (MONA). Either upregulation or downregulation of MMP2 activity can result in the same osteolytic effects. Thus, different functions of MMP2 have been recently identified that could explain this observation. While MMP2 can degrade bone matrix, facilitate osteoclastogenesis and amplify various signaling pathways that enhance osteolysis in bone metastasis, its role in maintaining the number of bone cells, supporting osteocytic canalicular network formation and suppressing leptin-mediated inhibition of bone formation has been implicated in osteolytic disorders caused by MMP2 deficiency. Furthermore, the proangiogenic activity of MMP2 is one of the potential mechanisms that are associated with both pathological situations. In the present article, the latest research on MMP2 in bone homeostasis is reviewed and the mechanisms underlying the role of this protein in skeletal metastasis and developmental osteolysis are discussed.

Scoring Algorithms for Predicting Survival Prognosis in Patients With Metastatic Spinal Disease: The Current Status and Future Directions

Various survival scoring systems have been developed to help surgeons select the best candidates for appropriate therapies in patients with metastatic spinal disease. This study aims to discuss the current status and future directions of scoring systems for the prediction of survival prognosis in these patients. The search terms "spine metastases," "metastatic spinal disease," and "metastatic spinal cord compression" were combined with "survival prognosis," "scoring system," and "score" to elicit relevant literatures in PubMed and Embase databases. As a result, 159 articles were selected from PubMed, and 246 articles were extracted from Embase. After reviewing each article, we carefully included and analyzed 74 articles about the development and evaluation of scoring systems for predicting survival prognosis in spine metastases. In this review, those scoring systems were stratified into the historic scoring systems and the modern scoring systems on the basis of the proposed time. The historic scoring systems, including the original/revised Tokuhashi scoring system, the Bauer scoring system, the Tomita scoring system, and the Linden scoring system, and the modern scoring systems, such as the Lei scoring system, the Bartels scoring system, the Mizumoto scoring system, the Bollen scoring system, the Rades scoring system, Oswestry Spinal Risk Index, and the Choi risk calculator, were introduced and discussed in this review. Besides, the clinical effectiveness and pitfalls of the existing systems and the future directions of the next generation of scoring systems were also addressed and discussed. We recommended these scoring systems as preferable reference tools to help doctors to select surgical candidates. In patients with long-term life expectancy, radical surgery, such as wide or marginal excision, can be considered in patients with neurological deficits, spine instability, or severe back pain. Besides, with the advancement and improvement of medical technologies, surgical procedures are changing, which can affect surgical indications such as vertebroplasty, minimal invasive surgery, and percutaneous stabilization, which can also be used in patients with spine instability or severe back pain, and do not require much recovery; hence, they can even be used in patients with relative short-term life expectancy. However, the decision about the treatment of patients with metastatic spinal disease is so complicated and should never rely on prognostic scores alone. The final therapeutic decision should be made by interdisciplinary corporations of oncologists, radiologists, and spinal surgeons. Besides, individual intentions should be respected.

Surgery for spinal metastatic tumors: Prognostication systems in clinical practice (Review)

The management of spinal metastatic tumors is a matter of increasing clinical importance, as 20-40% of cancer patients have evidence of vertebral metastatic disease at the time of their passing and up to 20% develop neurological symptoms due to epidural spinal cord compression. The treatment of patients with spinal metastases is challenging, albeit palliative, and it requires a multidisciplinary approach. Accurate prediction of life expectancy of patients with cancer is of paramount importance for therapeutic strategy. Prognostication scoring systems were developed to aid clinicians to follow a more objective, safe and evidence-based approach with therapy selection and surgical intervention indications. In this context, the aim of the present review was to briefly discuss the evolution of scoring systems since their introduction in the early 90s until today, their advantages and shortcomings, and the future requirements for personalized scoring in the era of modern oncology.

The modified Frailty Index does not correlate with survival in surgically-treated patients with metastatic spine disease

With the increasing burden of metastatic spinal disease there is ever-more pressure on the health system to provide optimal management. Multiple treatment modalities, including surgical intervention, are available. Multiple prognostic scoring systems have been developed to aid both clinician and patient in making the best decision for each individual. The modified Frailty Index (mFI) has not been assessed for its correlation with survival in patients treated for metastatic spine disease. A retrospective review of a patients undergoing surgery for metastatic spine disease at a tertiary referral centre was performed and a comparison was made between the mFI and previously established disease-specific prognostic scores (revised Tokuhashi, modified Bauer and Tomita scores and the Oswestry Spine Risk Index). 41 patients were included over a 5-year period. 38 deceased by the end of the study period with a 30-day mortality of 14.6% and a 1-year mortality of 73.2%. The mFI poorly correlated with survival. Out of the four established scoring system, the OSRI had the best correlation. The mFI did not correlate with survival in this cohort of surgically treated patients with metastatic spinal disease and is best used as a selection tool for surgery. Dedicated prognostic tools can be selected appropriate to the institution experience and set-up.

Reliability of a spinal metastasis prognostic score to model 1-year survival

BACKGROUND

Predicting survival after surgery for patients with metastatic spine disease can be challenging, with multiple variables that can influence a patient's overall survival. Predictive models have been developed to assist clinicians in providing a prognosis for patients. Recently, Ghori et al. reported a composite model taking into account a modified Bauer score, preoperative albumin, and ambulatory status of patients with spinal metastasis. Using an independent cohort, we sought to assess the reliability and validity of this composite model to predict 1-year survival in patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer to the spine.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess the reliability and validity of the Ghori et al. composite model to predict 1-year survival in patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer to the spine, using an independent cohort.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

A retrospective study was carried out.

PATIENT SAMPLE

The sample comprised 161 patients with spinal metastasis undergoing surgery.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Patients' modified Bauer score, preoperative albumin, and ambulatory status were assessed.

METHODS

This study used a retrospective analysis of 161 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent surgical management from 2007 to 2013. The ability of this composite model to predict 1-year survival was compared with actual patient survival using multivariable logistic regression to control for confounders, as well as post-regression diagnostics.

RESULTS

Our analysis revealed significantly lower 1-year mortality among patients with higher composite scores as compared with those with lower scores. Strong associations between scores and survival were appreciated in unadjusted analysis. The final model was able to account for 80% of the variation in the 1-year survival, and there was no evidence of lack of fit.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates, in an independent cohort of spinal metastases patients, that a composite model taking into account the ambulatory status, serum albumin, and modified Bauer score is able to better predict postoperative survival. These data serve to validate the use of this predictive model in determining the prognosis of patients with spinal metastasis.

Modeling 1-year survival after surgery on the metastatic spine

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Choosing appropriate surgical patients in the setting of spinal metastases can be challenging. Existing scoring systems focus primarily on patient selection or operative techniques. These scores are limited in their capacity to predict postoperative survival.

PURPOSE

The aim was to model survival after spine surgery for metastastic disease.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective multicenter study.

PATIENT SAMPLE

All patients who had undergone surgery for the treatment of metastatic spinal disease at one of four tertiary care centers between 2007 and 2013 were included.

OUTCOME MEASURE

The outcome measure was 1-year survival after surgery.

METHODS

Demographic, medical, oncologic, surgical, and survival data were abstracted from medical records. The effect of predictor variables on survival was evaluated alone and in combination using stepwise logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression was subsequently used to adjust for confounders. A predictive score was then developed and compared against that of the modified Bauer score alone in terms of prognosticating 1-year survival after surgery.

RESULTS

In the time period under investigation, 318 patients underwent surgical intervention for metastastic disease involving the spine, with 307 having data available for analysis. The survival rate at 1 year was 48% (n=142), with a median survival of 10 months. In final adjusted analysis, preoperative modified Bauer score (odds ratio [OR] 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80-5.01; p<.001), ambulatory status (OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.48-4.14; p=.001), and serum albumin (OR 2.80; 95% CI 1.66-4.72; p<.001) were all independent predictors of 1-year survival. The most parsimonious model weighted the modified Bauer score with 2 points and intact ambulatory status and normal serum albumin level with 1 point each, with a ceiling score of 3. The final model using the predictive score was able to explain 74% of the variation in 1-year survival. In contrast, the modified Bauer score alone was only able to explain 64% of the variation in 1-year survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the importance of including factors related to the overall health of a patient, in addition to parameters surrounding their cancer diagnosis, to better prognosticate survival. Our predictive score performed better than the modified Bauer alone and may be used to predict survival after surgical intervention for metastatic disease.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.