Natural History Project Working Group for the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) in EuroCoord. Factors associated with short-term changes in HIV viral load and CD4(+) cell count in antiretroviral-naive individuals

APOL1 Renal Risk Variants and Kidney Function in HIV-1–Infected People From Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

APOL1 G1 and G2 alleles have been associated with kidney-related outcomes in people living with HIV (PLHIV) of Black African origin. No APOL1-related kidney risk data have yet been reported in PLHIV in West Africa, where high APOL1 allele frequencies have been observed.

Methods

We collected clinical data from PLHIV followed in Burkina Faso (N = 413) and in the ANRS-12169/2LADY trial (Cameroon, Senegal, Burkina Faso, N = 369). APOL1 G1 and G2 risk variants were genotyped using TaqMan assays, and APOL1 high-risk (HR) genotype was defined by the carriage of 2 risk alleles.

Results

In West Africa (Burkina Faso and Senegal), the G1 and G2 allele frequencies were 13.3% and 10.7%, respectively. In Cameroon (Central Africa), G1 and G2 frequencies were 8.7% and 8.9%, respectively. APOL1 HR prevalence was 4.9% in West Africa and 3.4% in Cameroon. We found no direct association between APOL1 HR and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change over time. Nevertheless, among the 2LADY cohort participants, those with both APOL1 HR and high baseline viral load had a faster eGFR progression (β = −3.9[−7.7 to −0.1] ml/min per 1.73 m² per year, P < 0.05) than those with low-risk (LR) genotype and low viral load.

Conclusion

Overall, the APOL1 risk allele frequencies in PLHIV were higher in the West African countries than in Cameroon, but much lower than previously reported in some Nigeria ethnic groups, which strongly advocates for further investigation in the African continent. This study suggested that the virological status could modulate the APOL1 impact on kidney function, hence reinforcing the need for early therapeutic interventions.

Redefining therapeutic success in HIV patients: an expert view

Thanks to advances in the field over the years, HIV/AIDS has now become a manageable chronic condition. Nevertheless, a new set of HIV-associated complications has emerged, related in part to the accelerated ageing observed in people living with HIV/AIDS, the cumulative toxicities from exposure to antiretroviral drugs over decades and emerging comorbidities. As a result, HIV/AIDS can still have a negative impact on patients' quality of life (QoL). In this scenario, it is reasonable to believe that the concept of therapeutic success, traditionally associated with CD4 cell count restoration and HIV RNA plasma viral load suppression and the absence of drug resistances, needs to be redefined to include other factors that reach beyond antiretroviral efficacy. With this in mind, a group of experts initiated and coordinated the RET Project, and this group, using the available evidence and their clinical experience in the field, has proposed new criteria to redefine treatment success in HIV, arranged into five main concepts: rapid initiation, efficacy, simplicity, safety, and QoL. An extensive review of the literature was performed for each category, and results were discussed by a total of 32 clinicians with experience in HIV/AIDS (4 coordinators + 28 additional experts). This article summarizes the conclusions of these experts and presents the most updated overview on the five topics, along with a discussion of the experts' main concerns, conclusions and/or recommendations on the most controversial issues.

Change in Viral Load Count and Its Predictors Among Unsuppressed Viral Load Patients Receiving an Enhanced Adherence Counseling Intervention at Three Hospitals in Northern Ethiopia: An Exploratory Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Background

Enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) is an interventional program that provides targeted adherence counseling for unsuppressed viral load people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy before diagnosing treatment failure. However, there is a lack of evidence on change in viral load count among patients receiving EAC intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess change in viral load count and its predictors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 235 randomly selected patients with unsuppressed viral load who started EAC sessions between 2016 and 2019 at three governmental hospitals in the northern part of Ethiopia. Viral load count and patient individual factors were assessed at EAC program enrollment and viral load counts repeated at the end of EAC session. The main outcome variable was a change in viral load count during the EAC session period. A paired sample t-test was used to determine the mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the effect of selected factors on viral load count change.

Results

Based on the paired sample t-test, there was a significant mean difference in viral load count before and after EAC intervention (mean difference=16,904, (95% CI: 9986–23,821; p-value<0.001). The multivariable linear mixed-effects regression analysis showed that young age (β= 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14), urban residence (β= −0.55; 95% CI: −0.63, −0.34), CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm³ (β= −0.67; 95% CI: −0.87, −0.43) and long duration on ART (β= −0.01; 95% CI: −0.01, −0.02) were associated with the decline in viral load count.

Conclusion

We detected a substantial decline in viral load count among patients receiving an EAC intervention. Young age, urban residence, CD4 count of 201–500 cells/mm³ and long duration on ART were the positive predictors of viral load suppression.

Enrollment Length, Service Category, and HIV Health Outcomes Among Low-Income HIV-Positive Persons Newly Enrolled in a Housing Program, New York City, 2014-2017

Objectives. To evaluate the impact of duration and service category on HIV health outcomes among low-income adults living with HIV and enrolled in a housing program in 2014 to 2017.Methods. We estimated relative risk of engagement in care, viral suppression, and CD4 improvement for 561 consumers at first and second year after enrollment to matched controls through the New York City HIV surveillance registry, by enrollment length (enrolled for more than 1 year or not) and service category (housing placement assistance [HPA], supportive permanent housing [SPH], and rental assistance [REN]).Results. The SPH and REN consumers were enrolled longer and received more services, compared with HPA consumers. Long-term SPH and REN consumers had better engagement in care, viral suppression, and CD4 count than controls at both first and second year after enrollment, but the effect did not grow bigger from year 1 to 2. HPA consumers did not have better outcomes than controls regardless of enrollment length.Conclusions. Longer enrollment with timely housing placement and a higher number and more types of services are associated with better HIV health outcomes for low-income persons living with HIV with unmet housing needs.

Association Between Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in HLA Alleles and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Viral Load in Demographically Diverse, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Participants From the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment Trial

The impact of variation in host genetics on replication of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in demographically diverse populations remains uncertain. In the current study, we performed a genome-wide screen for associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to viral load (VL) in antiretroviral therapy-naive participants (n = 2440) with varying demographics from the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial. Associations were assessed using genotypic data generated by a customized SNP array, imputed HLA alleles, and multiple linear regression. Genome-wide significant associations between SNPs and VL were observed in the major histocompatibility complex class I region (MHC I), with effect sizes ranging between 0.14 and 0.39 log10 VL (copies/mL). Supporting the SNP findings, we identified several HLA alleles significantly associated with VL, extending prior observations that the (MHC I) is a major host determinant of HIV-1 control with shared genetic variants across diverse populations and underscoring the limitations of genome-wide association studies as being merely a screening tool.

Modelling of viral load dynamics and CD4 cell count progression in an antiretroviral naive cohort: using a joint linear mixed and multistate Markov model

Background

Patients infected with HIV may experience a succession of clinical stages before the disease diagnosis and their health status may be followed-up by tracking disease biomarkers. In this study, we present a joint multistate model for predicting the clinical progression of HIV infection which takes into account the viral load and CD4 count biomarkers.

Methods

The data is from an ongoing prospective cohort study conducted among antiretroviral treatment (ART) naïve HIV-infected women in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We presented a joint model that consists of two related submodels: a Markov multistate model for CD4 cell count transitions and a linear mixed effect model for longitudinal viral load dynamics.

Results

Viral load dynamics significantly affect the transition intensities of HIV/AIDS disease progression. The analysis also showed that patients with relatively high educational levels (β = − 0.004; 95% confidence interval [CI]:-0.207, − 0.064), high RBC indices scores (β = − 0.01; 95%CI:-0.017, − 0.002) and high physical health scores (β = − 0.001; 95%CI:-0.026, − 0.003) were significantly were associated with a lower rate of viral load increase over time. Patients with TB co-infection (β = 0.002; 95%CI:0.001, 0.004), having many sex partners (β = 0.007; 95%CI:0.003, 0.011), being younger age (β = 0.008; 95%CI:0.003, 0.012) and high liver abnormality scores (β = 0.004; 95%CI:0.001, 0.01) were associated with a higher rate of viral load increase over time. Moreover, patients with many sex partners (β = − 0.61; 95%CI:-0.94, − 0.28) and with a high liver abnormality score (β = − 0.17; 95%CI:-0.30, − 0.05) showed significantly reduced intensities of immunological recovery transitions. Furthermore, a high weight, high education levels, high QoL scores, high RBC parameters and being of middle age significantly increased the intensities of immunological recovery transitions.

Conclusion

Overall, from a clinical perspective, QoL measurement items, being of a younger age, clinical attributes, marital status, and educational status are associated with the current state of the patient, and are an important contributing factor to extend survival of the patients and guide clinical interventions. From a methodological perspective, it can be concluded that a joint multistate model approach provides wide-ranging information about the progression and assists to provide specific dynamic predictions and increasingly precise knowledge of diseases.

Virological Outcome Measures During Analytical Treatment Interruptions in Chronic HIV-1-Infected Patients

Background

Analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) are essential in research on HIV cure. However, the heterogeneity of virological outcome measures used in different trials hinders the interpretation of the efficacy of different strategies.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of viral load (VL) evolution in 334 ATI episodes in chronic HIV-1-infected patients collected from 11 prospective studies. Quantitative (baseline VL, set point, delta set point, VL, and delta VL at given weeks after ATI, peak VL, delta peak VL, and area under the rebound curve) and temporal parameters (time to rebound [TtR], set point, peak, and certain absolute and relative VL thresholds) were described. Pairwise correlations between parameters were analyzed, and potential confounding factors (sex, age, time of known HIV infection, time on ART, and immunological interventions) were evaluated.

Results

The set point was lower than baseline VL (median delta set point, –0.26; P < .001). This difference was >1 log10 copies/mL in 13.9% of the cases. The median TtR was 2 weeks; no patients had an undetectable VL at week 12. The median time to set point was 8 weeks: by week 12, 97.4% of the patients had reached the set point. TtR and baseline VL were correlated with most temporal and quantitative parameters. The variables independently associated with TtR were baseline VL and the use of immunological interventions.

Conclusions

TtR could be an optimal surrogate marker of response in HIV cure strategies. Our results underline the importance of taking into account baseline VL and other confounding factors in the design and interpretation of these studies.

HIV among women in the WHO European Region - epidemiological trends and predictors of late diagnosis, 2009-2018

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among women remains an issue in the WHO European Region, with nearly 50,000 women diagnosed in 2018 and over half (54%) diagnosed late. Although new HIV diagnoses declined between 2009 and 2018 in the West of the Region, they increased in the Centre and East. Understanding the characteristics of women diagnosed with HIV can inform gender-sensitive prevention services including pre-exposure prophylaxis and early testing and linkage to care.

Asymptomatic immune responders to Leishmania among HIV positive patients

Concomitant infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the Leishmania parasite is a growing public health problem, the result of the former spreading to areas where the latter is endemic. Leishmania infection is usually asymptomatic in immunocompetent individuals, but the proportion of HIV+ individuals in contact with the parasite who remain asymptomatic is not known. The aim of the present work was to examine the use of cytokine release assays in the detection of asymptomatic immune responders to Leishmania among HIV+ patients with no previous leishmaniasis or current symptomatology. Eighty two HIV+ patients (all from Fuenlabrada, Madrid, Spain, where a leishmaniasis outbreak occurred in 2009) were examined for Leishmania infantum infection using molecular and humoral response-based methods. None returned a positive molecular or serological result for the parasite. Thirteen subjects showed a positive lymphoproliferative response to soluble Leishmania antigen (SLA), although the mean CD4+ T lymphocyte counts of these patients was below the normal range. Stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) or whole blood with SLA (the lymphoproliferative assay and whole blood assay respectively), led to the production of specific cytokines and chemokines. Thus, despite being immunocompromised, HIV+ patients can maintain a Th1-type cellular response to Leishmania. In addition, cytokine release assays would appear to be useful tools for detecting these individuals via the identification of IFN-γ in the supernatants of SLA-stimulated PBMC, and of IFN-γ, MIG and IL-2 in SLA-stimulated whole blood. These biomarkers appear to be 100% reliable for detecting asymptomatic immune responders to Leishmania among HIV+ patients.

The proportion of patients with HIV+ who have at some time been infected with the Leishmania parasite, but who remain asymptomatic, is unknown. It is important to be able to identify such patients to determine the prevalence of asymptomatic leishmaniasis in the HIV+ population, and because these persons are at increased risk of developing symptomatic visceral leishmaniasis. In the present work, a population of HIV+ patients showing a cellular immune response to Leishmania infantum was identified. These subjects all showed a clear Th1-type response when their PBMC or blood were stimulated in vitro with soluble Leishmania antigen (SLA). Cytokine release assays and the detection of IFN-γ, MIG and IL-2 (specific biomarkers for immunity to Leishmania) were found to be useful for detecting this population of HIV+ patients. New studies with larger numbers of patients are needed to confirm the present results.

Polymorphism rs1385129 Within Glut1 Gene SLC2A1 Is Linked to Poor CD4+ T Cell Recovery in Antiretroviral-Treated HIV+ Individuals

Untreated HIV infection is associated with progressive CD4+ T cell depletion, which is generally recovered with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, a significant proportion of cART-treated individuals have poor CD4+ T cell reconstitution. We investigated associations between HIV disease progression and CD4+ T cell glucose transporter-1 (Glut1) expression. We also investigated the association between these variables and specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the Glut1 regulatory gene AKT (rs1130214, rs2494732, rs1130233, and rs3730358) and in the Glut1-expressing gene SLC2A1 (rs1385129 and rs841853) and antisense RNA 1 region SLC2A1-AS1 (rs710218). High CD4+Glut1+ T cell percentage is associated with rapid CD4+ T cell decline in HIV-positive treatment-naïve individuals and poor T cell recovery in HIV-positive individuals on cART. Evidence suggests that poor CD4+ T cell recovery in treated HIV-positive individuals is linked to the homozygous genotype (GG) associated with SLC2A1 SNP rs1385129 when compared to those with a recessive allele (GA/AA) (odds ratio = 4.67; P = 0.04). Furthermore, poor response to therapy is less likely among Australian participants when compared against American participants (odds ratio: 0.12; P = 0.01) despite there being no difference in prevalence of a specific genotype for any of the SNPs analyzed between nationalities. Finally, CD4+Glut1+ T cell percentage is elevated among those with a homozygous dominant genotype for SNPs rs1385129 (GG) and rs710218 (AA) when compared to those with a recessive allele (GA/AA and AT/TT respectively) (P < 0.04). The heterozygous genotype associated with AKT SNP 1130214 (GT) had a higher CD4+Glut1+ T cell percentage when compared to the dominant homozygous genotype (GG) (P = 0.0068). The frequency of circulating CD4+Glut1+ T cells and the rs1385129 SLC2A1 SNP may predict the rate of HIV disease progression and CD4+ T cell recovery in untreated and treated infection, respectively.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of HIV care shows a clear benefit when transmission risk is considered in the calculations - A message for Central and Eastern Europe

BACKGROUND

HIV epidemic remains a major global health issue. Data from cost-effectiveness analyses base on CD4+ count and morbidity in patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic HIV infection. The approach adopted in these analyses includes many other factors, previously not investigated. Additionally, we evaluate the impact of sexual HIV transmission due to delayed cART on the cost-effectiveness of care.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov model (1-month cycle) was developed to estimate the cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) for a 1- and 3-year delay in starting cART (as compared to starting immediately at linkage to care) lifetime costs, clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Patients were categorized into having asymptomatic HIV, AIDS, Hodgkin's Lymphoma, and non-AIDS defining condition. Mortality rates and utility values were obtained from published literature. The number of new infected persons was estimated on the basis of sexual orientation, the number of sexual partners per year, the number of sex acts per month, frequency of condom use and use of cART. For the input Test and Keep in Care (TAK) project cohort data were used. Costs of care, cART and potential life-years lost were based on estimated total costs and the difference in expected QALY gained between an HIV-positive and an average person in Polish population. Costs were based on real expenditures of the Ministry of Health, National Health Fund, available studies and experts' opinion. Costs and effects were discounted at rates of 5% and 3.5%, respectively.

RESULTS

Input data were available for 141 patients form TAK cohort. The estimated number of new HIV infections in low, medium and high risk transmission groups were 0.28, 0.61, 2.07 with 1 and 0.82, 1.80, 6.11 with a 3-year delay, respectively. This reflected QALY loss due to cART delay of 0.52, 1.13, 3.84 and 2.02, 4.43, 15.03 for a 1- and 3-year delay, respectively. If additional costs of treatment and potential life-years lost due to new HIV infections were not taken into account, initiating cART immediately at linkage to care was not cost-saving irrespective of cART delay. Otherwise, when additional costs and QALY lost due to new HIV infections were included, immediate cART initiation was cost-saving regardless of the chosen scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

If new HIV infections are not taken into account, then starting cART immediately does not dominate comparing to delaying cART. When taking into account HIV transmission in cost-effectiveness analysis, immediate initiation of HIV treatment is a profitable decision from the public payer's perspective.

Antiretroviral therapy initiation within seven days of enrolment: outcomes and time to undetectable viral load among children at an urban HIV clinic in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Viral suppression is a critical indicator of HIV treatment success. In the era of test-and-start, little is known about treatment outcomes and time to undetectable viral loads. This study compares treatment outcomes, median times to achieve undetectable viral loads and its predictors under different antiretroviral (ART) treatment initiation schedules (i.e. within seven days of enrolment or later).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 367 patients <18 years who enrolled in care between January 2010 and December 2015 with a baseline viral load of >5000 copies/ml were followed up for 60 months. Undetectable viral load measurements were based on both Roche (<20copies/ml) and Abbot (<75copies/ml). Clinical treatment outcomes were compared using chi-squared test. Survival experiences between the two cohorts were assessed through incidence rates and Kaplan Meier curves. A cox model with competing risks was used to assess predictors for time to undetectable viral load.

RESULTS

Of the 367 patients, 180 (49.1%) initiated ART within seven days from enrolment, 192 (52.3%) attained undetectable viral load of which 133 (69.3%) were children below six years and 101 (52.6%) were females. Among those who initiated ART within seven days 15 (8.3%) died and 6 (3.3%) were lost to follow-up compared to 27 (14.4%) and 16 (8.6%) respectively in the later initiators. The median time to undetectable viral load was 24.9 months (95% CI: 19.7, 28.5) among early ART initiators and 38.5 months (95% CI: 31.1, 44.5) among those initiating beyond seven days. There was a significant difference in failure estimates between those initiating within seven and those that deferred (log rank, p = 0.001). Significant predictors for time to undetectable viral load were; starting ART within seven days (SHR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.24, 3.28), baseline WHO stage I or II (SHR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.28), inconsistent adherence on three consecutive clinic visits (SHR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.67), and baseline weight (SRH = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.07).

CONCLUSION

Prompt initiation of ART within the first week of enrolment is associated with better treatment outcomes. Early timing, baseline WHO clinical stage and adherence rates should be major considerations while managing HIV among children.

Cigarette smoking is associated with high HIV viral load among adults presenting for antiretroviral therapy in Vietnam

High HIV viral load (VL >100,000 cp/ml) is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, faster progression to AIDS, and reduced response to some antiretroviral regimens. To better understand factors associated with high VL, we examined characteristics of patients presenting for treatment in Hanoi, Vietnam. We examined baseline data from the Viral Load Monitoring in Vietnam Study, a randomized controlled trial of routine VL monitoring in a population starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) at a clinic in Hanoi. Patients with prior treatment failure or ART resistance were excluded. Characteristics examined included demographics, clinical and laboratory data, and substance use. Logistic regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Out of 636 patients, 62.7% were male, 72.9% were ≥30 years old, and 28.3% had a history of drug injection. Median CD4 was 132 cells/mm3, and 34.9% were clinical stage IV. Active cigarette smoking was reported by 36.3% with 14.0% smoking >10 cigarettes per day. Alcohol consumption was reported by 20.1% with 6.1% having ≥5 drinks per event. Overall 53.0% had a VL >100,000 cp/ml. Male gender, low body weight, low CD4 count, prior TB, and cigarette smoking were associated with high VL. Those who smoked 1–10 cigarettes per day were more likely to have high VL (aOR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.15–3.45), while the smaller number of patients who smoked >10 cigarettes per day had a non-significant trend toward higher VL (aOR = 1.41, 95% CI = 0.75–2.66). Alcohol consumption was not significantly associated with high VL. Tobacco use is increasingly recognized as a contributor to premature morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected patients. In our study, cigarette smoking in the last 30 days was associated with a 1.5 to 2-fold higher odds of having an HIV VL >100,000 cp/ml among patients presenting for ART. These findings provide further evidence of the negative effects of tobacco use among HIV-infected patients.

Structural equation modelling of viral tropism reveals its impact on achieving viral suppression within 6 months in treatment-naive HIV-1-infected patients after combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the role of pre-treatment co-receptor tropism of plasma HIV on the achievement of viral suppression (plasma HIV RNA 1.69 log₁₀ copies/mL) at the sixth month of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a cohort of naive patients using, for the first time in this context, a path analysis (PA) approach.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Adult patients with chronic infection by subtype B HIV-1 were consecutively enrolled from the start of first-line cART (T0). Genotypic analysis of viral tropism was performed on plasma and interpreted using the bioinformatic tool Geno2pheno, with a false positive rate of 10%. A Bayesian network starting from the viro-immunological data at T0 and at the sixth month of treatment (T1) was set up and this model was evaluated using a PA approach.

RESULTS

A total of 262 patients (22.1% bearing an X4 virus) were included; 178 subjects (67.9%) achieved viral suppression. A significant positive indirect effect of bearing X4 virus in plasma at T0 on log₁₀ HIV RNA at T1 was detected (P = 0.009), the magnitude of this effect was, however, over 10-fold lower than the direct effect of log₁₀ HIV RNA at T0 on log₁₀ HIV RNA at T1 (P = 0.000). Moreover, a significant positive indirect effect of bearing an X4 virus on log₁₀ HIV RNA at T0 (P = 0.003) was apparent.

CONCLUSIONS

PA overcame the limitations implicit in common multiple regression analysis and showed the possible role of pre-treatment viral tropism at the recommended threshold on the outcome of plasma viraemia in naive patients after 6 months of therapy.

HIV-1 Disease Progression and Survival in an Adult Population in Zimbabwe: Is There an Effect of the Mannose Binding Lectin Deficiency?

HIV infection remains a major global health burden since its discovery in 1983. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic where 63% of the 33 million infected people live. While there is marked person-to-person variability in susceptibility, progression, and survival with HIV infection, there is a paucity of predictive diagnostics associated with these clinical endpoints. In this regard, the deficiency in plasma Mannose Binding Lectin (MBL) is a common opsonic defect reported to increase susceptibility infections, including HIV. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first study on the putative role of MBL deficiency on HIV progression and survival in an African adult population. We hypothesized that MBL deficiency has a role to play in HIV infection by increasing HIV disease progression and decreasing survival. We assessed the role of MBL deficiency on HIV disease progression and survival in a Zimbabwean adult population enrolled in the Mupfure Schistosomiasis and HIV (MUSH) cohort. We analyzed blood samples for MBL levels, MBL2 genotypes, HIV-1 status, viral load, and CD4(+) T cell counts. Participants were followed for 3 years wherein the endpoints were measured at baseline, 6 weeks, and 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. Disease progression was measured as the rate of decline in CD4(+) T cell counts and the rate of increase in HIV viral load. We assessed 197 HIV positive adults where 83% (164) were women with a median age of 31 years. Prevalence of plasma MBL deficiency (less than 100 μg/L) and MBL2 deficient genetic variants (A/O and O/O genotypes) was 21% (42 out of 197) and 39% (74 out of 190), respectively. We did not observe a significant role to explain individual variation in mortality, change of CD4(+) T cell count, and viral load by MBL plasma deficiency or MBL2 genetic variants from baseline to 3 years follow up period in this adult population. We suggest the need for global OMICS research and that the present findings attest to the large between-population variability in a host of factors that can predispose individuals susceptible to HIV progression and mortality. We therefore cannot recommend at this time the use of plasma MBL levels or MBL2 genetic variants as a prognostic marker in HIV infection, disease progression, and survival in this adult population in Africa.

A trend towards increasing viral load in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients in southeast China

Peripheral blood viral load is an important indicator of viral production and clearance. Previous studies have suggested that viral load might predict the rate of decrease in CD4+ cell count and progression to AIDS and death. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends in HIV-1 viral load in southeast China. Among inpatients newly diagnosed with HIV infection, we found that viral load has increased over the past decade from 4·20 log10 copies/ml in 2002 to 6·61 log10 copies/ml in 2014, with a mean increase of 0·19 log10 copies/ml each year. However, the CD4+ cell count was stable and insensitive to changes in viral load. Thus, increasing viral load appears to be an emerging trend in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies.

METHODS

We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands.

RESULTS

The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

CD4 Decay Rate as an Indicator of the Time Interval between Initial Infection and First Diagnosis among Drug-Naïve Human Immunodeficiency Virus Seropositive Individuals in Lagos, Nigeria

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the time interval between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the first diagnosis among drug-naïve individuals in Badagry, Nigeria.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A sample of 213 subjects who tested HIV positive for the first time were enrolled in this study. The HIV diagnosis was performed using Startpak® and Determine® kits, and a CD4 count was carried out using a FACS Count® flow cytometer. The mean CD4 values were determined by gender and age groups. The time interval between initial HIV infection and first testing was calculated based on the average CD4 decay rate per calendar year, and data analysis was performed using SPSS software.

RESULTS

At diagnosis, the mean CD4 values showed that females recorded 270 cells/µl and males 244 cells/µl. By age range, individuals <25 years recorded 437 cells/µl, those between 25 and 40 years of age had 237 cells/µl, and those aged ≥41 years had 192 cells/µl. There was a significant difference between CD4 cell categorization and age range (p < 0.001). Subjects aged between 25 and 40 years recorded the highest distribution of all CD4 cell counts. The time interval between infection and testing for females was 8.1 years and for males 6.7 years. Within the age group <25 years the interval was 5.1 years, whilst it was 8.1 years for those aged ≥41 years.

CONCLUSION

Most of the population presented for testing during the advanced stages of infection. We suggest an upscaling of HIV voluntary counseling and testing to encourage early detection and better treatment outcomes.

CD4+ cell dynamics in untreated HIV-1 infection: overall rates, and effects of age, viral load, sex and calendar time

Background:

CD4⁺ cell count is a key measure of HIV disease progression, and the basis of successive international guidelines for treatment initiation. CD4⁺ cell dynamics are used in mathematical and econometric models for evaluating public health need and interventions. Here, we estimate rates of CD4⁺ decline, stratified by relevant covariates, in a form that is clinically transparent and can be directly used in such models.

Methods:

We analyse the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands cohort, including individuals with date of seroconversion estimated to be within 1 year and with intensive clinical follow-up prior to treatment initiation. Owing to the fact that CD4⁺ cell counts are intrinsically noisy, we separate the analysis into long-term trends of smoothed CD4⁺ cell counts and an observation model relating actual CD4⁺ measurements to the underlying smoothed counts. We use a monotonic spline smoothing model to describe the decline of smoothed CD4⁺ cell counts through categories CD4⁺ above 500, 350–500, 200–350 and 200 cells/μl or less. We estimate the proportion of individuals starting in each category after seroconversion and the average time spent in each category. We examine individual-level cofactors which influence these parameters.

Results:

Among untreated individuals, the time spent in each compartment was 3.32, 2.70, 5.50 and 5.06 years. Only 76% started in the CD4⁺ cell count above 500 cells/μl compartment after seroconversion. Set-point viral load (SPVL) was an important factor: individuals with at least 5 log₁₀ copies/ml took 5.37 years to reach CD4⁺ cell count less than 200 cells/μl compared with 15.76 years for SPVL less than 4 log₁₀ copies/ml.

Conclusion:

Many individuals already have CD4⁺ cell count below 500 cells/μl after seroconversion. SPVL strongly influences the rate of CD4⁺ decline. Treatment guidelines should consider measuring SPVL, whereas mathematical models should incorporate SPVL stratification.

Clinical and demographic factors associated with low viral load in early untreated HIV infection in the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial

OBJECTIVES

A small subset of HIV-positive adults have low HIV RNA in the absence of therapy, sometimes for years. Clinical factors associated with low HIV RNA in early infection have not been well defined.

METHODS

We assessed factors associated with low plasma HIV RNA level at study entry in the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial. All START participants had a baseline HIV RNA assessment within 60 days prior to randomization. The key covariables considered for this analysis were race, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) status. We assessed factors associated with HIV RNA ≤ 50 and ≤ 400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL using logistic regression. Because of the strong association between region of randomization and baseline low HIV RNA, analyses were stratified by region.

RESULTS

We found that, of 4676 eligible participants randomized in START with a baseline HIV RNA assessment, 113 (2.4%) had HIV RNA ≤ 50 copies/mL at baseline, and a further 257 (5.5%) between 51 and 400 copies/mL. We found that HIV exposure routes other than male homosexual contact, higher high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, higher CD4 cell counts, and higher CD4:CD8 ratio were associated with increased odds of low HIV RNA. HCV antibody positivity was borderline statistically significantly associated with low HIV RNA. Race and HBV surface antigen positivity were not significantly associated with low HIV RNA.

CONCLUSIONS

In a modern cohort of individuals with early untreated HIV infection, we found that HIV exposure routes other than male homosexual contact and higher HDL cholesterol were associated with increased odds of low HIV RNA.

Emerging concepts on the use of antiretroviral therapy in older adults living with HIV infection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

With the overwhelming success of combination antiretroviral therapy, HIV infection is now a chronic, but manageable, medical condition. Consequently, HIV-infected cohorts are ageing leading to new challenges in the life-long management of this condition. Here, we review recent data concerning the modern treatment of older HIV-infected adults.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV-infected cohorts are ageing with the majority of those infected predicted to be more than 50 years old within the next 2 decades. There is emerging evidence of increased antiretroviral drug exposure in older individuals, but the evidence this leads to increased toxicity is less clear-cut. In addition, the choice of antiretroviral agents is more challenging in older HIV-infected patients because of the presence of comorbidities, which occur more commonly and at a younger age than in HIV-uninfected individuals and because of a higher propensity for drug-drug interactions due to the use of concomitant medications. Specific recommendations regarding antiretroviral treatment of older HIV-infected individuals are lacking and prospective trials in older age groups are urgently needed.

SUMMARY

The use of antiretroviral therapies in older individuals is complex. Development of novel antiretrovirals and antiretroviral combinations with a low propensity for toxicity, drug-drug interactions and reliable pharmacology regardless of age is urgently needed.

Cascade of HIV care and population viral suppression in a high-burden region of Kenya

Introduction:

Direct measurement of antiretroviral treatment (ART) program indicators essential for evidence-based planning and evaluation – especially HIV incidence, population viral load, and ART eligibility – is rare in sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methods:

To measure key indicators in rural western Kenya, an area with high HIV burden, we conducted a population survey in September to November 2012 via multistage cluster sampling, recruiting everyone aged 15–59 years living in 3330 randomly selected households. Consenting individuals were interviewed and tested for HIV at home. Participants testing positive were assessed for CD4⁺ cell count and viral load, and their infections classified as either recent or long term based on Limiting Antigen Avidity assays. HIV-negative participants were tested by nucleic acid amplification to detect acute infections.

Results:

Of 6833 household members eligible for the study, 6076 (94.7% of all women and 81.0% of men) agreed to participate. HIV prevalence and incidence were 24.1% [95% confidence interval [CI] 23.0–25.2] and 1.9 new cases/100 person-years (95% CI 1.1–2.7), respectively. Among HIV-positive participants, 59.4% (95% CI 56.8–61.9) were previously diagnosed, 53.1% (95% CI 50.5–55.7) were receiving care, and 39.7% (95% CI 37.1–42.4) had viral load less than 1000 copies/ml. Applying 2013 WHO recommendations for ART initiation increased the proportion of ART-eligible people from 60.0% (based on national guidelines in place during the survey; 95% CI 57.3–62.7) to 82.0% (95% CI 79.5–84.5). Among HIV-positive people not receiving ART, viral load increased with decreasing CD4⁺ cell count (500–749 vs. ≥750 cells/μl, adjusted mean difference, 0.40 log₁₀ copies/ml, 95% CI 0.20–0.60, P < 0.01).

Conclusion:

This study demonstrates how population-level data can help optimize HIV programs. Based on these results, new regional programs are prioritizing diagnosis and expanding ART eligibility, key steps to reach undetectable viral load.

HIV-1 Genetic Diversity and Its Impact on Baseline CD4+T Cells and Viral Loads among Recently Infected Men Who Have Sex with Men in Shanghai, China

The HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been spreading throughout China. Shanghai, a central gathering place for MSM, is facing a continuously increasing incidence of HIV-1 infection. In order to better understand the dynamics of HIV-1 diversity and its influence on patient's immune status at baseline on diagnosis, 1265 newly HIV-1-infected MSM collected from January 2009 to December 2013 in Shanghai were retrospectively analyzed for genetic subtyping, CD4+T cell counts, and viral loads. HIV-1 phylogenetic analysis revealed a broad viral diversity including CRF01_AE (62.13%), CRF07_BC (24.51%), subtype B (8.06%), CRF55_01B (3.24%), CER67_01B (0.95%), CRF68_01B (0.4%), CRF08_BC (0.08%) and CRF59_01B (0.08%). Twenty-four unique recombination forms (URFs) (1.98%) were identified as well. Bayesian inference analysis indicated that the introduction of CRF01_AE strain (1997) was earlier than CRF07_BC strain (2001) into MSM population in Shanghai based on the time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA). Three epidemic clusters and five sub-clusters were found in CRF01_AE. Significantly lower CD4+T cell count was found in individuals infected with CRF01_AE than in those infected with CRF07_BC infection (P<0.01), whereas viral load was significantly higher those infected with CRF01_AE than with CRF07_BC (P<0.01). In addition, the patients with >45 years of age were found to have lower CD4+T cell counts and higher viral loads than the patients with <25 years of age (P<0.05). This study reveals the presence of HIV-1 subtype diversity in Shanghai and its remarkable influence on clinical outcome. A real-time surveillance of HIV-1 viral diversity and phylodynamics of epidemic cluster, patient's baseline CD4+T cell count and viral load would be of great value to monitoring of disease progression, intervention for transmission, improvement of antiretroviral therapy strategy and design of vaccines.

Sex, age, race and intervention type in clinical studies of HIV cure: a systematic review

This systematic review was undertaken to determine the extent to which adult subjects representing sex (female), race (nonwhite), and age (>50 years) categories are included in clinical studies of HIV curative interventions and thus, by extension, the potential for data to be analyzed that may shed light on the influence of such demographic variables on safety and/or efficacy. English-language publications retrieved from PubMed and from references of retrieved papers describing clinical studies of curative interventions were read and demographic, recruitment year, and intervention-type details were noted. Variables of interest included participation by sex, age, and race; changes in participation rates by recruitment year; and differences in participation by intervention type. Of 151 publications, 23% reported full demographic data of study enrollees, and only 6% reported conducting efficacy analyses by demographic variables. Included studies recruited participants from 1991 to 2011. No study conducted safety analyses by demographic variables. The representation of women, older people, and nonwhites did not reflect national or international burdens of HIV infection. Participation of demographic subgroups differed by intervention type and study location. Rates of participation of demographic groups of interest did not vary with time. Limited data suggest efficacy, particularly of early therapy initiation followed by treatment interruption, may vary by demographic variables, in this case sex. More data are needed to determine associations between demographic characteristics and safety/efficacy of curative interventions. Studies should be powered to conduct such analyses and cure-relevant measures should be standardized.

Patients infected with CRF07_BC have significantly lower viral loads than patients with HIV-1 subtype B: mechanism and impact on disease progression

The circulating recombinant form (CRF) 07_BC is the most prevalent HIV-1 strain among injection drug users (IDUs) in Taiwan. It contains a 7 amino-acid deletion in its p6gag. We conducted a cohort study to compare viral loads and CD4 cell count changes between patients infected with subtype B and CRF07_BC and to elucidate its mechanism. Twenty-one patients infected with CRF07_BC and 59 patients with subtype B were selected from a cohort of 667 HIV-1/AIDS patients whom have been followed up for 3 years. Generalized estimated equation was used to analyze their clinical data and the results showed that patients infected with CRF07_BC had significantly lower viral loads (about 58,000 copies per ml less) than patients with subtype B infection (p = 0.002). The replicative capacity of nine CRF07_BC and four subtype B isolates were compared and the results showed that the former had significantly lower replicative capacity than the latter although all of them were CCR5- tropic and non-syncytium inducing viruses. An HIV-1-NL4-3 mutant virus which contains a 7 amino-acid deletion in p6gag (designated as 7d virus) was generated and its live cycle was investigated. The results showed that 7d virus had significantly lower replication capacity, poorer protease-mediated processing and viral proteins production. Electron microscopic examination of cells infected with wild-type or 7d virus demonstrated that the 7d virus had poorer and slower viral maturation processes: more viruses attached to the cell membrane and higher proportion of immature virions outside the cells. The interaction between p6gag and Alix protein was less efficient in cells infected with 7d virus. In conclusion, patients infected with CRF07_BC had significantly lower viral loads than patients infected with subtype B and it may due to the deletion of 7 amino acids which overlaps with Alix protein-binding domain of the p6gag.