Tracking development assistance for HIV/AIDS: the international response to a global epidemic

Epidemias de significação e políticas de saúde global: Do fim da AIDS ao fim da ampliação da resposta global da AIDS

RESUMONas últimas quatro décadas e meia, a história da pandemia de HIV passou por várias fases que podem ser pensadas como ondas distintas em termos da resposta social e política que a pandemia gerou. Ao longo dessa história, houve batalhas importantes sobre os significados e interpretações que a resposta à pandemia produziu. Mas, especialmente na última década, parece haver uma crescente desconexão entre as alegações de sucesso feitas por muitas agências globais de saúde e formuladores de políticas e a realidade empírica que essas alegações encobrem. Este comentário argumenta que a 'ampliação' ('scale-up') da resposta à pandemia essencialmente chegou ao fim e enfatiza a importância de um debate político mais honesto sobre o estado atual da resposta global ao HIV. Argumenta que, a fim de melhor definir os rumos que tal resposta deve tomar no futuro, exige que pensemos criticamente sobre as formas como essa resposta se desenvolveu historicamente, que reconheçamos os avanços significativos alcançados nas últimas décadas, mas também que reconheçamos a encruzilhada a que chegou em meados da década de 2020.

Implications of rapid population growth on survey design and HIV estimates in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), Uganda

OBJECTIVE

Since rapid population growth challenges longitudinal population-based HIV cohorts in Africa to maintain coverage of their target populations, this study evaluated whether the exclusion of some residents due to growing population size biases key HIV metrics like prevalence and population-level viremia.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data were obtained from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in south central Uganda, an open population-based cohort which began excluding some residents of newly constructed household structures within its surveillance boundaries in 2008. The study includes adults aged 15-49 years who were censused from 2019 to 2020.

MEASURES

We fit ensemble machine learning models to RCCS census and survey data to predict HIV seroprevalence and viremia (prevalence of those with viral load >1000 copies/mL) in the excluded population and evaluated whether their inclusion would change overall estimates.

RESULTS

Of the 24 729 census-eligible residents, 2920 (12%) residents were excluded from the RCCS because they were living in new households. The predicted seroprevalence for these excluded residents was 10.8% (95% CI: 9.6% to 11.8%)-somewhat lower than 11.7% (95% CI: 11.2% to 12.3%) in the observed sample. Predicted seroprevalence for younger excluded residents aged 15-24 years was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.6% to 6.1%)-significantly higher than that in the observed sample for the same age group (2.6% (95% CI: 2.2% to 3.1%)), while predicted seroprevalence for older excluded residents aged 25-49 years was 15.0% (95% CI: 13.3% to 16.4%)-significantly lower than their counterparts in the observed sample (17.2% (95% CI: 16.4% to 18.1%)). Over all ages, the predicted prevalence of viremia in excluded residents (3.7% (95% CI: 3.0% to 4.5%)) was significantly higher than that in the observed sample (1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%)), resulting in a higher overall population-level viremia estimate of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.8% to 2.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Exclusion of residents in new households may modestly bias HIV viremia estimates and some age-specific seroprevalence estimates in the RCCS. Overall, HIV seroprevalence estimates were not significantly affected.

Temporal trend analysis of the HIV/AIDS burden before and after the implementation of antiretroviral therapy at the population level from 1990 to 2020 in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has helped reduce the burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the majority of countries. Its contribution to the HIV/AIDS burden in Ghana is still understudied. This study examined HIV/AIDS trends in Ghana before (1990-2004) and after (2004-2020) the implementation and expansion of ART.

METHODS

We obtained HIV/AIDS epidemiology and treatment data for the years 1990-2020 from the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. We investigated the impact of the ART rollout on HIV/AIDS in Ghana using Joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

The HIV incidence, prevalence, and AIDS-related deaths decreased significantly after 2004, as ART coverage increased from 1% to 2004 to 60% in 2020. The HIV incidence decreased by approximately 3% (AAPC = -2.6%; 95% CI: -3.2, -1.9) per year from 1990 to 2004 and approximately 5% (AAPC = -4.5%; 95% CI: -4.9, -4.2) per year from 2004 to 2020. Between 1990 and 2004, the HIV prevalence increased by approximately 5% (AAPC = 4.7%; 95% CI: 3.6, 5.8) per year but decreased by 2% (AAPC = -1.9%; 95% CI: -2.1, -1.6) per year between 2004 and 2020. Between 1990 and 2004, the annual increase in AIDS-related mortality was 14% (AAPC = 13.8%; 95% CI: 12.6, 15.0), but between 2004 and 2020, it decreased at nearly a 4% (AAPC= -3.6%; 95% CI: -4.7, -2.5) annual rate.

CONCLUSIONS

We found trends indicating progress in Ghana's fight against HIV/AIDS. However, the most significant declines occurred after the introduction of ART, suggesting that the scale-up of ART may have contributed to the decline in HIV/AIDS in Ghana. We advocate for the rapid expansion of ART in Ghana.

Characterizing the Development of Research Landscapes in Substance Use and HIV/AIDS During 1990 to 2021

Mitigating the impacts of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and substance use requires comprehensive and systematic thinking in designing interventions and developing policies. This study describes the growth of research publications from 1991 to 2021 in the Web of Science database and points out current research landscapes in the fields of HIV/AIDS and substance use. Latent Dirichlet Allocation was used for classifying 21 359 papers into corresponding topics. The most common topics were HIV transmission, HIV infection, quality of life and mental health of substance users, and the biomedical effect of substance use. Emerging research landscapes include vulnerabilities of people who inject drugs to HIV transmission and related health problems. This study found a lack of research on health services, interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral in combination with clinical evaluation and treatment services. Future investment and implementation of HIV/AIDS and substance use programs should focus on research of health services and clinical evaluation, especially context-specific interventions.

Temporal trends in inequalities of the burden of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has reported that HIV/AIDS continues to take a disproportionate toll on global health. However, the trends in global inequality of HIV/AIDS burden have remained ambiguous over the past two decades. The objectives of our study were to assess the socioeconomic inequalities, and temporal trends of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

We extracted data from the GBD 2019, and conducted a cross-national time-series analysis. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates were used to measure the global burden of HIV/AIDS. Gross national income (GNI) per capita was used to approximate the national socioeconomic status. Linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between age-standardized DALY rates due to HIV/AIDS and GNI per capita. The concentration curve and concentration index (CI) were generated to evaluate the cross-national socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to quantify the changes in trends in socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden from 2000 to 2019.

RESULTS

A decrease in age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS occurred in 132 (71%) of 186 countries/territories from 2000 to 2019, of which 52 (39%) countries/territories achieved a decrease in DALYs of more than 50%, and 27 (52%) of the 52 were from sub-Saharan Africa. The concentration curves of the age-standardized DALY rates of HIV/AIDS were above the equality line from 2000 to 2019. The CI rose from - 0.4625 (95% confidence interval - 0.6220 to -0.2629) in 2000 to -0.4122 (95% confidence interval - 0.6008 to -0.2235) in 2019. A four-phase trend of changes in the CIs of age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS was observed across 2000 to 2019, with an average increase of 0.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4 to 0.8, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the burden of HIV/AIDS has decreased over the past two decades, accompanied by a trend of narrowing cross-country inequalities of HIV/AIDS burden. Moreover, the burden of HIV/AIDS continues to fall primarily in low-income countries.

Economic costs and cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers for the uptake of services for the prevention of vertical HIV transmissions in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) is critical for halting the HIV epidemic. However, innovative approaches to improve PMTCT uptake may be resource-intensive. We examined the economic costs and cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) for the uptake of PMTCT services in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

METHODS

We leveraged data from a randomized controlled trial of CCTs (n = 216) versus standard PMTCT care alone (standard of care (SOC), n = 217). Economic cost data came from multiple sources, with costs analyzed from the societal perspective and reported in 2016 international dollars (I$). Effectiveness outcomes included PMTCT uptake (i.e., accepting all PMTCT visits and services) and retention (i.e., in HIV care at six weeks post-partum). Generalized estimating equations estimated effectiveness (relative risk) and incremental costs, with incremental effectiveness reported as the number of women needing CCTs for an additional PMTCT uptake or retention. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the CCTs at various levels of willingness-to-pay and assessed uncertainty using deterministic sensitivity analysis and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS

Mean costs per participant were I$516 (CCTs) and I$431 (SOC), representing an incremental cost of I$85 (95% CI: 59, 111). PMTCT uptake was more likely for CCTs vs SOC (68% vs 53%, p < 0.05), with seven women needing CCTs for each additional PMTCT service uptake; twelve women needed CCTs for an additional PMTCT retention. The incremental cost-effectiveness of CCTs vs SOC was I$595 (95% CI: I$550, I$638) for PMTCT uptake and I$1028 (95% CI: I$931, I$1125) for PMTCT retention. CCTs would be an efficient use of resources if society's willingness-to-pay for an additional woman who takes up PMTCT services is at least I$640. In the worst-case scenario, the findings remained relatively robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the relatively low cost of the CCTs, policies supporting CCTs may decrease onward HIV transmission and expedite progress toward ending the epidemic.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

HIV Digital Vaccine Strategy: Proposal for Applying Blockchain in Preventing the Spread of HIV

Background

The HIV epidemic imposes a heavy burden on societal development. Protection of susceptible populations is the most feasible method for eliminating the spread of HIV. In the absence of a biological vaccine, the definitive solution is enabling susceptible populations to recognize and avoid high-risk sexual behavior.

Objective

The objective of this study is to use specific technologies and strategies to establish a system by which high-HIV-risk individuals can determine the HIV infection status of one another anonymously, conveniently, and credibly.

Methods

This study proposes an HIV digital vaccine (HDV) strategy, a decentralized application (Dapp) based on blockchain for use by individuals with a high risk of HIV and accredited testing agencies (ATAs). Following testing, only the HIV-negative results (or linked information) are uploaded to the blockchain, which results in high-risk individuals being able to determine the HIV-negative status of each other anonymously, conveniently, and credibly.

Results

Future work includes the following: (1) a survey of the willingness to use Dapps among high-HIV-risk populations, (2) a larger framework containing both HDV and people living with HIV (PLH) and discussing the influence of HDV on PLH and its possible solutions, and (3) coordinating with the blockchain development team, ATAs, community-based organizations, and third-party organizations to raise funds, develop the Dapp, formulate detailed plans, and publicize and promote it. The exact timeline for achieving these objectives cannot be determined at present.

Conclusions

The HDV strategy may reduce the occurrence of high-risk sexual behavior and effectively protect susceptible populations; combined with current strategies, it is a promising solution to prevent the spread of HIV. The included concepts of decentralized surveillance and surveillance as intervention may spark a change in current infectious disease prevention and control modes to introduce beneficial innovations in public health systems globally.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/37133

Spatial and Temporal Trends in HIV/AIDS Burden Among Worldwide Regions From 1990 to 2019: A Secondary Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Purpose

HIV/AIDS is a critical public health concern worldwide. This article investigated the spatial and temporal trends in HIV/AIDS burden from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and the age-standardized rate (ASR) were used to quantify the change in trends at the global, regional, and national levels.

Results

In terms of temporal trends, during the period 1990–2004, increasing trends in prevalence (EAPC = 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.84, 9.12), death (EAPC = 10.85, 95% CI 8.90–12.84), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (EAPC = 10.40, 95% CI 8.47–12.36) of HIV/AIDS were observed. During the period 2005–2019, the global trends in HIV/AIDS incidence, death, and DALYs of HIV/AIDS decreased, with the EAPCs of −2.68 (95% CI−2.82–−2.53), −6.73 (95% CI −6.98–−6.47), and −6.75 (95% CI −6.95–−6.54), respectively. However, the disease prevalence showed a slight increasing trend (EAPC = 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.87). In terms of spatial trends, over the past 15 years, trends in HIV/AIDS incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared upward in High-middle and High sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (EAPC = 6.51, 95% CI 5.50–7.53; EAPC = 2.31, 95% CI 2.02–2.60, respectively).

Conclusion

Decreasing trends in HIV/AIDS incidence, death, and DALYs have been observed worldwide over the past 15 years, especially in death and DALYs rates. However, the global population living with HIV/AIDS is still increasing. It is worth noting that an unfavorable trend emerged in High-middle and High SDI areas. Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS still need to be strengthened to counteract these concerning trends.

The Causes of Death and Their Influence in Life Expectancy of Children Aged 5-14 Years in Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Although child and adolescent health is the core of the global health agenda, the cause of death and its expected contribution to life expectancy (LE) among those aged 5-14 are under-researched across countries, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Death rates per 10 years age group including a 5-14-year-old group were calculated by the formula, which used the population and the number of deaths segmented by the cause of death and gender from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. LE and cause-eliminated LE in 10-year intervals were calculated by using life tables.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global mortality rate for children and adolescents aged 5-14 years was 0.522 (0.476-0.575) per 1,000, and its LF was 71.377 years. In different-income regions, considerable heterogeneity remains in the ranking of cause of death aged 5-14 years. The top three causes of death in low-income countries (LICs) are enteric infections [0.141 (0.098-0.201) per 1,000], other infectious diseases [0.103 (0.073-0.148) per 1,000], and neglected tropical diseases and malaria [0.102 (0.054-0.172) per 1,000]. Eliminating these mortality rates can increase the life expectancy of the 5-14 age group by 0.085, 0.062, and 0.061 years, respectively. The top three causes of death in upper-middle income countries (upper MICs) are unintentional injuries [0.066 (0.061-0.072) per 1,000], neoplasm [0.046 (0.041-0.050) per 1,000], and transport injuries [0.045 (0.041-0.049) per 1,000]. Eliminating these mortality rates can increase the life expectancy of the 5-14 age group by 0.045, 0.031, and 0.030 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate for children and adolescents aged 5-14 years among LMICs remains high. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in the main causes of death among regions. According to the main causes of death at 5-14 years old in different regions and countries at different economic levels, governments should put their priority in tailoring their own strategies to decrease preventable mortality.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: A Resurgence in North America and Europe

We aimed to assess global trends in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and evaluate progress toward eradication since the inception of the pandemic. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 update and the UNAIDS Data 2019. The datasets included annual figures from 1990 to 2019 for HIV/AIDS in 204 countries and all world regions. We analyzed rates and trends for prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years. Analysis of age and gender distribution in different regions was used to assess demographic changes. Forecasting was used to estimate disease burden up to 2040. Although many countries have witnessed a decrease in the incidence, for Russia, Ukraine, Portugal, Brazil, Spain and the United States, the rates of new cases are rising since 2010. This trend is present even in age-standardized analysis, indicating a rise in excess of population growth. Over 0.5% of the world's population is infected. About 5000 new infections occur daily, of which 500 are children. Mortality rates are falling globally; currently at 11 deaths per 100,000 population, forecasted to decrease to 8.5 deaths by 2040. Prevalence continues to increase, with South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, India, Kenya and the United States having the highest burden. The total number as well as the rates of new HIV infections are rising every year in Europe, South America, North America and other regions over the last decade. Maternal-to-child transmission continues at high rates despite effective preventive regimens. There is an urgent need to develop programs to curb the rising incidence of HIV.

Optimization Models for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This study reviews optimization models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) resource allocation.

METHODS

We searched 2 databases for peer-reviewed articles published from January 1985 through August 2019 that describe optimization models for resource allocation in HIV/AIDS. We included models that consider 2 or more competing HIV/AIDS interventions. We extracted data on selected characteristics and identified similarities and differences across models. We also assessed the quality of mathematical disease transmission models based on the best practices identified by a 2010 task force.

RESULTS

The final qualitative synthesis included 23 articles that used 14 unique optimization models. The articles shared several characteristics, including the use of dynamic transmission modeling to estimate health benefits and the inclusion of specific high-risk groups in the study population. The models explored similar HIV/AIDS interventions that span primary and secondary prevention and antiretroviral treatment. Most articles were focused on sub-Saharan African countries (57%) and the United States (39%). There was notable variation in the types of optimization objectives across the articles; the most common was minimizing HIV incidence or maximizing infections averted (87%). Articles that utilized mathematical modeling of HIV disease and transmission displayed variable quality.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review of the literature identified examples of optimization models that have been applied in different settings, many of which displayed similar features. There were similarities in objective functions across optimization models, but they did not align with global HIV/AIDS goals or targets. Future work should be applied in countries facing the largest declines in HIV/AIDS funding.

Cost analysis of implementing HIV drug resistance testing in Kenya: a case study of a service delivery site at a tertiary level hospital in Kenya

Background: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) threatens progress achieved in response to the HIV epidemic. Understanding the costs of implementing HIVDR testing programs for patient management and surveillance in resource-limited settings is critical in optimizing resource allocation. Here, we estimate the unit cost of HIVDR testing and identify major cost drivers while documenting challenges and lessons learnt in implementation of HIVDR testing at a tertiary level hospital in Kenya. Methods: We employed a mixed costing approach to estimate the costs associated with performing a HIVDR test from the provider's perspective. Data collection involved a time and motion study of laboratory procedures and interviewing laboratory personnel and the management personnel. Cost analysis was based on estimated 1000 HIVDR tests per year. Data entry and analysis were done using Microsoft Excel and costs converted to US dollars (2019). Results: The estimated unit cost for a HIVDR test was $271.78 per test. The main cost drivers included capital ($102.42, 37.68%) and reagents (101.50, 37.35%). Other costs included: personnel ($46.81, 17.22%), utilities ($14.69, 5.41%), equipment maintenance costs ($2.37, 0.87%) and quality assurance program ($4, 1.47%). Costs in relation to specific laboratory processes were as follows: sample collection ($2.41, 0.89%), RNA extraction ($22.79, 8.38%), amplification ($56.14, 20.66%), gel electrophoresis ($10.34, 3.80%), sequencing ($160.94, 59.22%), and sequence analysis ($19.16, 7.05%). A user-initiated modification of halving reagent volumes for some laboratory processes (amplification and sequencing) reduced the unit cost for a HIVDR test to $233.81 (13.97%) reduction.  Conclusions: Capital expenditure and reagents remain the most expensive components of HIVDR testing. This cost is bound to change as the sequencing platform is utilized towards maximum capacity or leveraged for use with other tests. Cost saving in offering HIVDR testing services is also possible through reagent volume reduction without compromising on the quality of test results.

Protocol for a randomized clinical trial exploring the effect of antimicrobial agents on the penile microbiota, immunology and HIV susceptibility of Ugandan men

Background

The foreskin is the main site of HIV acquisition in a heterosexual uncircumcised man, but many men in endemic countries are reluctant to undergo penile circumcision (PC). Observational studies suggest that proinflammatory anaerobic bacteria are enriched on the uncircumcised penis, where they may enhance HIV susceptibility through increased foreskin inflammatory cytokines and the recruitment of HIV-susceptible CD4⁺ target cells. This trial will examine the impact of systemic and topical antimicrobials on ex vivo foreskin HIV susceptibility.

Methods/design

This randomized, open-label clinical trial will randomize 125 HIV-negative Ugandan men requesting voluntary PC to one of five arms (n = 25 each). The control group will receive immediate PC, while the four intervention groups will defer PC for 1 month and be provided in the interim with either oral tinidazole, penile topical metronidazole, topical clindamycin, or topical hydrogen peroxide. The impact of these interventions on HIV entry into foreskin-derived CD4⁺ T cells will be quantified ex vivo at the time of PC using a clade A, R5 tropic HIV pseudovirus assay (primary endpoint); secondary endpoints include the impact of antimicrobials on immune parameters and the microbiota of the participant’s penis and of the vagina of their female partner (if applicable), assessed by multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and 16S rRNA sequencing.

Discussion

There is a critical need to develop acceptable, simple, and effective means of HIV prevention in men unwilling to undergo PC. This trial will provide insight into the causative role of the foreskin microbiota on HIV susceptibility, and the impact of simple microbiota-focused clinical interventions. This may pave the way for future clinical trials using low-cost, nonsurgical intervention(s) to reduce HIV risk in uncircumcised heterosexual men.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03412071. Retrospectively registered on 26 January 2018.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-019-3545-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Beyond cost-effectiveness, morbidity and mortality: a comprehensive evaluation of priority setting for HIV programming in Uganda

BACKGROUND

While there has been progress in controlling the HIV epidemic, HIV still remains a disease of global concern. Some of the progress has been attributed to increased public awareness and uptake of public health interventions, as well as increased access to anti- retroviral treatment and the prevention of vertical HIV transmission. These interventions would not have been possible without substantial investments in HIV programs. However, donor fatigue introduces the need for low income countries to maximize the benefits of the available resources. This necessitates identification of priorities that should be funded. Evaluating prioritization processes would enable decision makers to assess the effectiveness of their processes, thereby designing intervention strategies. To date most evaluations have focused on cost-benefit analyses, which overlooks additional critical impacts of priority setting decisions. Kapiriri & Martin (2010) developed and validated a comprehensive framework for evaluating PS in low income countries. The objective of this paper report findings from a comprehensive evaluation of priority setting for HIV in Uganda, using the framework; and to identify lessons of good practice and areas for improvement.

METHODS

This was a qualitative study based on forty interviews with decision makers and policy document review. Data were analysed using INVIVO 10, and based on the parameters in Kapiriri et al's evaluation framework.

RESULTS

We found that HIV enjoys political support, which contributes to the availability of resources, strong planning institutions, and participatory prioritization process based on some criteria. Some of the identified limitations included; undue donor and political influence, priorities not being publicized, and lack of mechanisms for appealing the decisions. HIV prioritization had both positive and negative impacts on the health system.

CONCLUSIONS

The framework facilitated a more comprehensive evaluation of HIV priority setting. While there were successful areas, the process could be strengthened by minimizing undue influence of external actors, and support the legitimate institutions to set priorities and implement them. These should also institute mechanisms for publicizing the decisions, appeals and increased accountability. While this paper looked at HIV, the framework is flexible enough to be used in evaluating priority setting for other health programs within similar context.

Tracking aid for global health goals: a systematic comparison of four approaches applied to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health

Background

Four initiatives have estimated the value of aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH): Countdown to 2015, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the Muskoka Initiative, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy marker. We aimed to compare the estimates, trends, and methodologies of these initiatives and make recommendations for future aid tracking.

Methods

We compared estimates of aid for RMNCH from the four initiatives for all years available at the time of our analysis (1990–2016). We used publicly available datasets for IHME and Countdown. We produced estimates for Muskoka and the OECD policy marker using data in the OECD Creditor Reporting System. We sought to explain differences in estimates by critically comparing the methods used by each approach to identify and analyse aid, and quantifying the effects of these choices on estimates.

Findings

All four approaches indicated substantial increases over time in global aid for RMNCH, but estimates of aid amounts and year-on-year trends differed substantially, especially for individual donors and recipient countries. Muskoka (US$ 13·0 billion in 2013, constant 2015 US$) and Countdown's RMNCH estimates ($13·1 billion in 2013) tended to be the highest and most similar, although they often indicated different year-on-year trends. IHME produced lower estimates ($10·8 billion in 2013), which often indicated different trends from the other approaches. The OECD policy marker produced by far the lowest estimates ($2·0 billion in 2013) because half of bilateral donors did not report on it consistently and those who did tended to apply it narrowly. Estimates differed across approaches primarily because of differences in methods for distinguishing aid for RMNCH from aid for other purposes; adjustments for inflation, exchange rates, and under-reporting; whether donors were credited for their support to multilateral institutions; and the handling of aid to unspecified recipients.

Interpretation

The four approaches are likely to lead to different conclusions about whether individual donors and recipient countries have fulfilled their obligations and commitments and whether aid was sufficient, targeted to countries with greater need, or effective. We recommend that efforts to track aid for the Sustainable Development Goals reflect their multisectoral and interconnected nature and make analytical choices that are appropriate to their objectives, recognising the trade-offs between simplicity, timeliness, precision, accuracy, efficiency, flexibility, replicability, and the incentives that different metrics create for donors.

Funding

Subgrant OPP1058954 from the US Fund for UNICEF under their Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Understanding the dynamic interactions driving the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda

Background

Despite increasing recognition that health-systems constraints are the fundamental barrier to attaining anti-retroviral therapy (ART) scale-up targets in Sub-Saharan Africa, current discourses are dominated by a focus on financial sustainability. Utilizing the health system dynamics framework, this study aimed to explore the interactions in health system components and their influence on the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda.

Methods

This study entailed qualitative organizational case-studies within a two-phased mixed-methods sequential explanatory research design. In Phase One, a survey of 195 health facilities across Uganda which commenced ART services between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. In Phase Two, six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination involving i) In-depth interviews (n = 44) ii) and semi-structured interviews (n = 35). Qualitative data was analyzed by coding and thematic analysis. Descriptive statistics were managed in STATA (v 13).

Results

Five dynamic interactions in ART program sustainability drivers were identified; i) Failure to update basic ART program records contributed to chronic ART medicines stock-outs ii) Health workforce shortages and escalating patient volumes prompted adaptations in ART service delivery models iii) Broader governance issues manifested in poor road networks undermined ART medicines supply chains iv) Sustained financing for ART programs was influenced by external donors v) The values associated with the ownership-type of a health facility affected ART service delivery and coverage.

Conclusion

The sustainability of ART programs at the facility-level in Uganda is a function of a complex interaction in elements of the health system and must be understood beyond sustaining international funding for ART scale-up.

Health financing at district level in Malawi: an analysis of the distribution of funds at two points in time

There is growing attention to tracking country level resource flows to health, but limited evidence on the sub-national allocation of funds. We examined district health financing in Malawi in 2006 and 2011, and equity in the allocation of funding, together with the association between financing and under five and neonatal mortality. We explored the process for receiving and allocating different funding sources at district level. We obtained domestic and external financing data from the Integrated Financial Management Information System (2006–11) and AidData (2000–12) databases. Out-of-pocket payment data came from two rounds of integrated household budget surveys (2005; 2010). Mortality data came from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2006) and Demographic and Health Survey (2010). We described district level health funding by source, ran correlations between funding and outcomes and generated concentration curves and indices. 41 semi-structured interviews were conducted at the national level and in 10 districts with finance and health managers. Per capita spending from all sources varied substantially across districts and doubled between 2006 and 2011 from 7181 Kwacha to 15 312 Kwacha. In 2011, external funding accounted for 74% of funds, with domestic funding accounting for 19% of expenditure, and out of pocket (OOP) funding accounting for 7%. All funding sources were concentrated among wealthier districts, with OOP being the most pro-rich, followed by domestic expenditure and external funding. Districts with higher levels of domestic and external funding had lower levels of post-neonatal mortality, and those with higher levels of out-of-pocket payments had higher levels of 1–59 month mortality in 2006. There was no association between changes in financing and outcomes. Districts reported delayed receipt of lower-than-budgeted funds, forcing them to scale-down activities and rely on external funding. Governments need to track how resources are allocated sub-nationally to maximize equity and ensure allocations are commensurate to health need.

Laboratory medicine in Africa since 2008: then, now, and the future

The Maputo Declaration of 2008 advocated for commitment from global stakeholders and national governments to prioritise support and harmonisation of laboratory systems through development of comprehensive national laboratory strategies and policies in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, HIV laboratory medicine in Africa has undergone a transformation, and substantial improvements have been made in diagnostic services, networks, and institutions, including the development of a competent workforce, introduction of point-of-care diagnostics, and innovative quality improvement programmes that saw more than 1100 laboratories enrolled and 44 accredited to international standards. These improved HIV laboratories can now be used to combat emerging continental and global health threats in the decades to come. For instance, the unprecedented Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa exposed the severe weaknesses in the overall national health systems in affected countries. It is now possible to build robust health-care systems in Africa and to combat emerging continental and global health threats in the future. In this Personal View, we aim to describe the remarkable transformation that has occurred in laboratory medicine to combat HIV/AIDS and improve global health in sub-Saharan Africa since 2008.

Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid

BACKGROUND

Resource-limited nations must consider their response to potential contractions in international support for HIV programs.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical, epidemiologic, and budgetary consequences of alternative HIV program scale-back strategies in 2 recipient nations, the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Côte d'Ivoire (CI).

DESIGN

Model-based comparison between current standard (CD4 count at presentation of 0.260 × 109 cells/L, universal antiretroviral therapy [ART] eligibility, and 5-year retention rate of 84%) and scale-back alternatives, including reduced HIV detection, no ART or delayed initiation (when CD4 count is <0.350 × 109 cells/L), reduced investment in retention, and no viral load monitoring or second-line ART.

DATA SOURCES

Published RSA- and CI-specific estimates of the HIV care continuum, ART efficacy, and HIV-related costs.

TARGET POPULATION

HIV-infected persons, including future incident cases.

TIME HORIZON

5 and 10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Modified societal perspective, excluding time and productivity costs.

OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV transmissions and deaths, years of life, and budgetary outlays (2015 U.S. dollars).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

At 10 years, scale-back strategies increase projected HIV transmissions by 0.5% to 19.4% and deaths by 0.6% to 39.1%. Strategies can produce budgetary savings of up to 30% but no more. Compared with the current standard, nearly every scale-back strategy produces proportionally more HIV deaths (and transmissions, in RSA) than savings. When the least harmful and most efficient alternatives for achieving budget cuts of 10% to 20% are applied, every year of life lost will save roughly $900 in HIV-related outlays in RSA and $600 to $900 in CI.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Scale-back programs, when combined, may result in clinical and budgetary synergies and offsets.

LIMITATION

The magnitude and details of budget cuts are not yet known, nor is the degree to which other international partners might step in to restore budget shortfalls.

CONCLUSION

Scaling back international aid to HIV programs will have severe adverse clinical consequences; for similar economic savings, certain programmatic scale-back choices result in less harm than others.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health and Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The importance of assessing out-of-pocket payments when the financing of antiretroviral therapy is transitioned to domestic funding: findings from Vietnam

OBJECTIVE

To assess out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditures among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients in Vietnam, and to model catastrophic payments under different copayment scenarios when the primary financing of ART changes to social health insurance.

METHODS

Cross-sectional facility-based survey of 843 patients at 42 health facilities representative of 87% of ART patients in 2015.

RESULTS

Because of donor and government funding, no payments were made for antiretroviral drugs. Other health expenditures were about $66 per person per year (95% CI: $30-$102), of which $15 ($7-$22) were directly for HIV-related health services, largely laboratory tests. These payments resulted in a 4.9% (95% CI: 3.1-6.8%) catastrophic payment rate and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.9-4.1%) catastrophic payment rate for HIV-related health services. About 32% of respondents reported, they were eligible for SHI without copayments. If patients had to pay 20% of costs of ART under social health insurance, the catastrophic payment rate would increase to 8% (95% CI: 5.5-10.0%), and if patients without health insurance had to pay the full costs of ART, the catastrophic payment rate among all patients would be 24% (95% CI: 21.1-27.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Health and catastrophic expenditures were substantially lower than in previous studies, although different methods may explain some of the discrepancy. The 20% copayments required by social health insurance would present a financial burden to an additional 0.6% to 5.1% of ART patients. Ensuring access to health insurance for all ART patients will prevent an even higher level of financial hardship.

Long-acting slow effective release antiretroviral therapy

INTRODUCTION

Advances in long-acting antiretroviral therapy (ART) can revolutionize current HIV/AIDS treatments. We coined the term 'long-acting slow effective release ART' (LASER ART) to highlight the required formulation properties of slow drug dissolution, poor water-solubility, bioavailability, little-to-no off-target toxicities and improved regimen adherence. Drug carrier technologies characterized by high antiretroviral drug (ARV) payloads in a single carrier improve the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. The surface modifications of ARV carriers target monocyte-macrophages and facilitate drug transport across physiological barriers and to virus-susceptible CD4 + T cells. Areas covered: The review highlights developments of reservoir-targeted LASER ART for improved therapeutic outcomes. Such nanoART delivery platforms include decorated multifunctional nano- and micro-particles, prodrugs and polymer conjugates. Therapeutic strategies such as gene-editing technologies boost ART effectiveness. Expert opinion: The persistence of HIV-1 in lymphoid, gut and nervous system reservoirs poses a challenge to viral eradication. Emerging slow-release drug carriers can target intracellular pathogens, activate antiviral immunity, promote genome editing, sustain drug depots and combine therapeutics with image contrast agents, and can meet unmet clinical needs for HIV-infected patients. Such efforts will bring the medicines to reservoir sites and accelerate viral clearance.

Alternative financing mechanisms for ART programs in health facilities in Uganda: a mixed-methods approach

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is heavily dependent on global health initiatives (GHIs) for funding antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. There are indications that global investments for ART scale-up are flattening. It is unclear what new funding channels can bridge the funding gap for ART service delivery. Many previous studies have focused on domestic government spending and international funding especially from GHIs. The objective of this study was to identify the funding strategies adopted by health facilities in Uganda to sustain ART programs between 2004 and 2014 and to explore variations in financing mechanisms by ownership of health facility.

Methods

A mixed-methods approach was employed. A survey of health facilities (N = 195) across Uganda which commenced ART delivery between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. Six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination. Semi-structured interviews (N = 18) were conducted with ART Clinic managers (three from each of the six health facilities). Statistical analyses were performed in STATA (Version 12.0) and qualitative data were analyzed by coding and thematic analysis.

Results

Multiple funding sources for ART programs were common with 140 (72%) of the health facilities indicating at least two concurrent grants supporting ART service delivery between 2009 and 2014. Private philanthropic aid emerged as an important source of supplemental funding for ART service delivery. ART financing strategies were differentiated by ownership of health facility. Private not-for-profit providers were more externally-focused (multiple grants, philanthropic aid). For-profit providers were more client-oriented (fee-for-service, insurance schemes). Public facilities sought additional funding streams not dissimilar to other health facility ownership-types.

Conclusion

Over the 10-year study period, health facilities in Uganda diversified funding sources for ART service delivery. The identified alternative funding mechanisms could reduce dependence on GHI funding and increase local ownership of HIV programs. Further research evaluating the potential contribution of the identified alternative financing mechanisms in bridging the global HIV funding gap is recommended.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: New Mathematical Models for Strategic Demand Creation Prioritizing Subpopulations by Age and Geography

Over 11 million voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMC) have been performed of the projected 20.3 million needed to reach 80% adult male circumcision prevalence in priority sub-Saharan African countries. Striking numbers of adolescent males, outside the 15-49-year-old age target, have been accessing VMMC services. What are the implications of overall progress in scale-up to date? Can mathematical modeling provide further insights on how to efficiently reach the male circumcision coverage levels needed to create and sustain further reductions in HIV incidence to make AIDS no longer a public health threat by 2030? Considering ease of implementation and cultural acceptability, decision makers may also value the estimates that mathematical models can generate of immediacy of impact, cost-effectiveness, and magnitude of impact resulting from different policy choices. This supplement presents the results of mathematical modeling using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA2008) model, and the age structured mathematical (ASM) model. These models are helping countries examine the potential effects on program impact and cost-effectiveness of prioritizing specific subpopulations for VMMC services, for example, by client age, HIV-positive status, risk group, and geographical location. The modeling also examines long-term sustainability strategies, such as adolescent and/or early infant male circumcision, to preserve VMMC coverage gains achieved during rapid scale-up. The 2016-2021 UNAIDS strategy target for VMMC is an additional 27 million VMMC in high HIV-prevalence settings by 2020, as part of access to integrated sexual and reproductive health services for men. To achieve further scale-up, a combination of evidence, analysis, and impact estimates can usefully guide strategic planning and funding of VMMC services and related demand-creation strategies in priority countries. Mid-course corrections now can improve cost-effectiveness and scale to achieve the impact needed to help turn the HIV pandemic on its head within 15 years.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

The potential to expand antiretroviral therapy by improving health facility efficiency: evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

Since 2000, international funding for HIV has supported scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, such funding has stagnated for years, threatening the sustainability and reach of ART programs amid efforts to achieve universal treatment. Improving health system efficiencies, particularly at the facility level, is an increasingly critical avenue for extending limited resources for ART; nevertheless, the potential impact of increased facility efficiency on ART capacity remains largely unknown. Through the present study, we sought to quantify facility-level technical efficiency across countries, assess potential determinants of efficiency, and predict the potential for additional ART expansion.

METHODS

Using nationally-representative facility datasets from Kenya, Uganda and Zambia, and measures adjusting for structural quality, we estimated facility-level technical efficiency using an ensemble approach that combined restricted versions of Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Distance Function. We then conducted a series of bivariate and multivariate regression analyses to evaluate possible determinants of higher or lower technical efficiency. Finally, we predicted the potential for ART expansion across efficiency improvement scenarios, estimating how many additional ART visits could be accommodated if facilities with low efficiency thresholds reached those levels of efficiency.

RESULTS

In each country, national averages of efficiency fell below 50 % and facility-level efficiency markedly varied. Among facilities providing ART, average efficiency scores spanned from 50 % (95 % uncertainty interval (UI), 48-62 %) in Uganda to 59 % (95 % UI, 53-67 %) in Zambia. Of the facility determinants analyzed, few were consistently associated with higher or lower technical efficiency scores, suggesting that other factors may be more strongly related to facility-level efficiency. Based on observed facility resources and an efficiency improvement scenario where all facilities providing ART reached 80 % efficiency, we predicted a 33 % potential increase in ART visits in Kenya, 62 % in Uganda, and 33 % in Zambia. Given observed resources in facilities offering ART, we estimated that 459,000 new ART patients could be seen if facilities in these countries reached 80 % efficiency, equating to a 40 % increase in new patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Health facilities in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia could notably expand ART services if the efficiency with which they operate increased. Improving how facility resources are used, and not simply increasing their quantity, has the potential to substantially elevate the impact of global health investments and reduce treatment gaps for people living with HIV.