National Program Scale-Up and Patient Outcomes in a Pediatric Antiretroviral Treatment Program, Thailand, 2000-2007

Attrition and Mortality of Children Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment through the Universal Coverage Health Program in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess mortality and loss to follow-up of children with HIV infection who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) through the Universal Coverage Health Program (UC) in Thailand.

STUDY DESIGN

Children with HIV infection who initiated ART at age <15 years through the UC between 2008 and 2013 were included in the analysis. Death was ascertained through linkage with the National Death Registry. A competing-risks method was used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of predictors for loss to follow-up. Death was considered a competing risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 4618 children from 497 hospitals in Thailand were included in the study. Median age at ART initiation was 9 years (IQR, 6-12 years), and the median duration of tracking was 4.1 years (a total of 18 817 person-years). Three hundred and ninety-five children (9%) died, for a mortality rate of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.3) per 100 person-years, and 525 children (11%) were lost to follow-up, for a lost to follow-up rate of 2.9 (95% CI, 2.7-3.2) per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up increased from 4% at 1 year to 8.8% at 3 years. Children who started ART at age ≥12 years were at the greatest risk of loss to follow-up. The probability of death was 3.2% at 6 months and 6.4% at 3 years. Age ≥12 years at ART initiation, lower baseline CD4%, advanced HIV staging, and loss to follow-up were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

The Thai national HIV treatment program has been very effective in treating children with HIV infection, with low mortality and modest rates of loss to follow-up.

Decentralizing Access to Antiretroviral Therapy for Children Living with HIV in Swaziland

BACKGROUND

In 2007, Swaziland initiated a hub-and-spoke model for decentralizing antiretroviral therapy (ART) access for HIV-infected children (<15 years old). Decentralization was facilitated through (1) down referral of stable children on ART from overburdened central facilities (hubs) to primary healthcare clinics (spokes) and (2) pediatric ART initiation at spokes (spoke initiation).

METHODS

We conducted a nationally representative retrospective cohort study among children starting ART during 2004-2010 to assess effect of down referral and spoke initiation on rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU), death and attrition (death or LTFU). Twelve of 28 pediatric ART hubs were randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling. Seven selected facilities had initiated hub-and-spoke decentralization by study start; at these facilities, 901 of 1893 hub-initiated and maintained (hub-maintained) children and 495 of 1105 down-referred or spoke-initiated children were randomly selected for record abstraction. At the 5 hub-only facilities, 612 of 1987 children were randomly selected. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) for effect of down referral (a time-varying covariate) and spoke initiation on outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 2008 children at ART initiation, median age was 5.0 years, median CD4% 12.0%, median CD4 count 358 cells/µL and median weight-for-age Z score -1.91. Controlling for known confounders, down referral was strongly protective against LTFU (AHR: 0.40; 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.79) and attrition (AHR: 0.46; 95% confidence interval: 0.26-0.83) but not mortality. Compared with hub-only children or hub-maintained children, spoke-initiated children had similar outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Decentralization of pediatric ART through down referral and spoke initiation within a hub-and-spoke system should be continued and might improve program outcomes.

Retention of HIV-Infected Children in the First 12 Months of Anti-Retroviral Therapy and Predictors of Attrition in Resource Limited Settings: A Systematic Review

Current UNAIDS goals aimed to end the AIDS epidemic set out to ensure that 90% of all people living with HIV know their status, 90% initiate and continue life-long anti-retroviral therapy (ART), and 90% achieve viral load suppression. In 2014 there were an estimated 2.6 million children under 15 years of age living with HIV, of which only one-third were receiving ART. Little literature exists describing retention of HIV-infected children in the first year on ART. We conducted a systematic search for English language publications reporting on retention of children with median age at ART initiation less than ten years in resource limited settings. The proportion of children retained in care on ART and predictors of attrition were identified. Twelve studies documented retention at one year ranging from 71–95% amongst 31877 African children. Among the 5558 children not retained, 4082 (73%) were reported as lost to follow up (LFU) and 1476 (27%) were confirmed to have died. No studies confirmed the outcomes of children LFU. Predictors of attrition included younger age, shorter duration of time on ART, and severe immunosuppression. In conclusion, significant attrition occurs in children in the first 12 months after ART initiation, the majority attributed to LFU, although true outcomes of children labeled as LFU are unknown. Focused efforts to ensure retention and minimize early mortality are needed as universal ART for children is scaled up.

Systematic review of retention of pediatric patients on HIV treatment in low and middle-income countries 2008-2013

OBJECTIVES

There are several published systematic reviews of adult retention in care after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among adults, but limited information on pediatric retention.

DESIGN

Systematic review of pediatric retention on ART in low and middle-income countries during 2008-2013.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause attrition (death and loss to follow-up) and retention for pediatric patients receiving first-line ART in routine settings. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science (January 2008-January 2014) and abstracts from AIDS and IAS (2008-2013). We estimated mean retention across cohorts using simple averages; interpolated any time period not reported to, up to the last period reported; summarized total retention in the population using Kaplan-Meier survival curves; and compared pediatric to adult retention.

RESULTS

We found 39 reports of retention in 45 patient cohorts and 55 904 patients in 23 countries. Among them, 37% of patients not retained in care were known to have died and 63% were lost to follow-up. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 85, 81, and 81% at 12, 24, and 36 months after ART initiation. From life-table analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, and 36 months at 88, 72, and 67%. We estimated 36-month retention at 66% in Africa and 74% in Asia.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric ART retention was similar to that among adults. There were limited data from Asia, only one study from Latin America and the Caribbean, and no data from Eastern Europe, Central Asia, or the Middle East.

Poor clinical outcomes for HIV infected children on antiretroviral therapy in rural Mozambique: need for program quality improvement and community engagement

INTRODUCTION

Residents of Zambézia Province, Mozambique live from rural subsistence farming and fishing. The 2009 provincial HIV prevalence for adults 15-49 years was 12.6%, higher among women (15.3%) than men (8.9%). We reviewed clinical data to assess outcomes for HIV-infected children on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a highly resource-limited setting.

METHODS

We studied rates of 2-year mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) for children <15 years of age initiating cART between June 2006-July 2011 in 10 rural districts. National guidelines define LTFU as >60 days following last-scheduled medication pickup. Kaplan-Meier estimates to compute mortality assumed non-informative censoring. Cumulative LTFU incidence calculations treated death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Of 753 children, 29.0% (95% CI: 24.5, 33.2) were confirmed dead by 2 years and 39.0% (95% CI: 34.8, 42.9) were LTFU with unknown clinical outcomes. The cohort mortality rate was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.3, 10.4) after 90 days on cART and 19.2% (95% CI: 16.0, 22.3) after 365 days. Higher hemoglobin at cART initiation was associated with being alive and on cART at 2 years (alive: 9.3 g/dL vs. dead or LTFU: 8.3-8.4 g/dL, p<0.01). Cotrimoxazole use within 90 days of ART initiation was associated with improved 2-year outcomes Treatment was initiated late (WHO stage III/IV) among 48% of the children with WHO stage recorded in their records. Marked heterogeneity in outcomes by district was noted (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found poor clinical and programmatic outcomes among children taking cART in rural Mozambique. Expanded testing, early infant diagnosis, counseling/support services, case finding, and outreach are insufficiently implemented. Our quality improvement efforts seek to better link pregnancy and HIV services, expand coverage and timeliness of infant diagnosis and treatment, and increase follow-up and adherence.

Immediate antiretroviral therapy in young HIV-infected children: benefits and risks

Purpose of review

Recent WHO guidelines recommend immediate initiation of lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) in all children below 5 years, irrespective of immune/clinical status, to improve access to paediatric ART. Interim trial results provide strong evidence for immediate ART during infancy because of high short-term risk of mortality and disease progression, but there is wider debate regarding the potential risks and benefits of immediate ART in asymptomatic children aged above 1 year. Concerns include long-term toxicities and treatment failure, particularly in resource-constrained settings with limited paediatric treatment options.

Recent findings

Benefits of immediate ART among infants appear to be maintained in the mid-term to long-term, with low risk of treatment failure, and better neurodevelopmental outcomes. In contrast, a trial reported no benefits of immediate versus deferred ART in asymptomatic children aged above 1 year. However, observational studies suggest that ART initiation at older ages and lower CD4 reduces the probability of immune reconstitution, with unclear implications on risk of clinical events or treatment change. A recent trial on treatment interruption following early intensive ART suggest that this may be a safe alternative approach.

Summary

Although there are clear benefits of immediate ART among infants, there remains conflicting evidence on the benefits for older children.

From transmission to transition: lessons learnt from the Thai paediatric antiretroviral programme

Background

The Thai HIV programme is a leader in the public health approach to HIV treatment. Starting at transmission of HIV and ending with transition to adult services this paper assesses the paediatric HIV treatment continuum from three perspectives: service-user, provider and policy maker, to understand what works well and why.

Methods

A qualitative research design was used to assess and triangulate the stakeholder perspectives. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ART service-users (n = 35), policy actors (n = 20); telephone interviews with prior caregivers of orphans (n = 10); and three focus group discussions with service-providers (hospital staff and volunteers) from a district, provincial and a university hospital.

Findings

Children accessing HIV care were often orphaned, cared for by elderly relatives and experiencing multiple vulnerabilities. Services were divided into three stages, 1. Diagnosis and linkage: Despite strong policies there were supply and demand-side gaps in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission ‘cascade’ preventing early diagnosis and/or treatment. 2. Maintenance on ART - Children did well on treatment; caregivers took adherence seriously and valued the quality of services. Drug resistance, adherence and psychosocial issues were important concerns from all perspectives. 3. Adolescents and transition: Adolescent service-users faced greater complexity in their physical and emotional lives for which providers lacked skills; transition from the security of paediatric clinic was a daunting prospect. Dedicated healthcare providers felt they struggled to deliver services that met service-users' diverse needs at all stages. Child- and adolescent-specific elements of HIV policy were considered low priority.

Conclusions

Using the notion of the continuum of care a number of strengths and weaknesses were identified. Features of paediatric services need to evolve alongside the changing needs of service users. Peer-support volunteers have potential to add continuity and support at all stages. It is critical that adolescents receive targeted support, particularly during transition to adult services.

Five-year trends in antiretroviral usage and drug costs in HIV-infected children in Thailand

BACKGROUND

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs mature, data on drug utilization and costs are needed to assess durability of treatments and inform program planning.

METHODS

Children initiating ART were followed up in an observational cohort in Thailand. Treatment histories from 1999 to 2009 were reviewed. Treatment changes were categorized as: drug substitution (within class), switch across drug class (non nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) to/from protease inhibitor (PI)), and to salvage therapy (dual PI or PI and NNRTI). Antiretroviral drug costs were calculated in 6-month cycles (US$ 2009 prices). Predictors of high drug cost including characteristics at start of ART (baseline), initial regimen, treatment change, and duration on ART were assessed using mixed-effects regression models.

RESULTS

Five hundred seven children initiated ART with a median 54 (interquartile range, 36-72) months of follow-up. Fifty-two percent had a drug substitution, 21% switched across class, and 2% to salvage therapy. When allowing for drug substitution, 78% remained on their initial regimen. Mean drug cost increased from $251 to $428 per child per year in the first and fifth year of therapy, respectively. PI-based and salvage regimens accounted for 16% and 2% of treatments prescribed and 33% and 5% of total costs, respectively. Predictors of high cost include baseline age ≥ 8 years, non nevirapine-based initial regimen, switch across drug class, and to salvage regimen (P < 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

At 5 years, 21% of children switched across drug class and 2% received salvage therapy. The mean drug cost increased by 70%. Access to affordable second- and third-line drugs is essential for the sustainability of treatment programs.

The changing epidemiology of the global paediatric HIV epidemic: keeping track of perinatally HIV-infected adolescents

The global paediatric HIV epidemic is shifting into a new phase as children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) move into adolescence and adulthood, and face new challenges of living with HIV. UNAIDS reports that 3.4 million children aged below 15 years and 2 million adolescents aged between 10 and 19 years have HIV. Although the vast majority of children were perinatally infected, older children are combined with behaviourally infected adolescents and youth in global reporting, making it difficult to keep track of their outcomes. Perinatally HIV-infected adolescents (PHIVA) are a highly unique patient sub-population, having been infected before development of their immune systems, been subject to suboptimal ART options and formulations, and now face transition from complete dependence on adult caregivers to becoming their own caregivers. As we are unable to track long-term complications and survival of PHIVA through national and global reporting systems, local and regional cohorts are the main sources for surveillance and research among PHIVA. This global review will utilize those data to highlight the epidemiology of PHIVA infection, treatment challenges and chronic disease risks. Unless mechanisms are created to count and separate out PHIVA outcomes, we will have few opportunities to characterize the negative consequences of life-long HIV infection in order to find ways to prevent them.

Decentralization of pediatric HIV care and treatment in five sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings, decentralization of HIV care and treatment is a cornerstone of universal care and rapid scale-up. We compared trends in pediatric enrollment and outcomes at primary (PHFs) vs secondary/tertiary health facilities (SHFs).

METHODS

Using aggregate program data reported quarterly from 274 public facilities in Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania from January 2008 to March 2010, we examined trends in number of children younger than 15 years of age initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) by facility type. We compared clinic-level lost to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality per 100 person-years (PYs) on ART during the period by facility type.

RESULTS

During the 2-year period, 17,155 children enrolled in HIV care and 8475 initiated ART in 182 (66%) PHFs and 92(34%) SHFs. PHFs increased from 56 to 182, whereas SHFs increased from 72 to 92 sites. SHFs accounted for 71% of children initiating ART; however, the proportion of children initiating ART each quarter at PHFs increased from 17% (129) to 44% (463) in conjunction with an increase in PHFs during observation period. The average LTFU and mortality rates for children on ART were 9.8/100 PYs and 5.2/100 PYs, respectively, at PHFs and 20.2/100 PYs and 6.0/100 PYs, respectively, at SHFs. Adjusted models show PHFs associated with lower LTFU (adjusted rate ratio = 0.55; P = 0.022) and lower mortality (adjusted rate ratio = 0.66; P = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

The expansion of pediatric services to PHFs has resulted in increased numbers of children on ART. Early findings suggest lower rates of LTFU and mortality at PHFs. Successful scale-up will require further expansion of pediatric services within PHFs.

Mortality and treatment outcomes of China's National Pediatric antiretroviral therapy program

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to describe 3-year mortality rates, associated risk factors, and long-term clinical outcomes of children enrolled in China's national free pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) program.

METHODS

Records were abstracted from the national human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS case reporting and national pediatric ART databases for all HIV-positive children ≤15 years old who initiated ART prior to December 2010. Mortality risk factors over 3 years of follow-up were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Life tables were used to determine survival rate over time. Longitudinal plots of CD4(+) T-cell percentage (CD4%), hemoglobin level, weight-for-age z (WAZ) score, and height-for-age z (HAZ) score were created using generalized estimating equation models.

RESULTS

Among the 1818 children included in our cohort, 93 deaths were recorded in 4022 child-years (CY) of observed time for an overall mortality rate of 2.31 per 100 CY (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-2.78). The strongest factor associated with mortality was baseline WAZ score <-2 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 9.1; 95% CI, 2.5-33.2), followed by World Health Organization stage III or IV disease (adjusted HR = 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.2), and hemoglobin <90 g/L (adjusted HR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-3.9). CD4%, hemoglobin level, WAZ score, and HAZ score increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding that 94% of children engaged in this program are still alive and of improved health after 3 years of treatment demonstrates that China's national pediatric ART program is effective. This program needs to be expanded to better meet treatment demands, and efforts to identify HIV-positive children earlier must be prioritized.

Successful clinical outcomes following decentralization of tertiary paediatric HIV care to a community-based paediatric antiretroviral treatment network, Chiangrai, Thailand, 2002 to 2008

INTRODUCTION

Most paediatric antiretroviral treatments (ARTs) in Thailand are limited to tertiary care hospitals. To decentralize paediatric HIV treatment and care, Chiangrai Prachanukroh Hospital (CRH) strengthened a provincial paediatric HIV care network by training community hospital (CH) care teams to receive referrals of children for community follow-up. In this study, we assessed factors associated with death and clinical outcomes of HIV-infected children who received care at CRH and CHs after implementation of a community-based paediatric HIV care network.

METHODS

Clinical records were abstracted for all children who initiated ART at CRH. Paired Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to assess CD4% and virological change among all children. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess factors associated with death. Treatment outcomes (CD4%, viral load (VL) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ)) were compared between CRH and CH children who met the criteria for analysis.

RESULTS

Between February 2002 and April 2008, 423 HIV-infected children initiated ART and 410 included in the cohort analysis. Median follow-up for the cohort was 28 months (interquartile range (IQR)=12 to 42); 169 (41%) children were referred for follow-up at CH. As of 31 March 2008, 42 (10%) children had died. Baseline WAZ (< -2 (p=0.001)) and baseline CD4% (<5% (p=0.015)) were independently associated with death. At 48 months, 86% of ART-naïve children in follow-up had VL<400 copies/ml. For sub-group analysis, 133 children at CRH and 154 at CHs were included for comparison. Median baseline WAZ was lower in CH children than in CRH children (p=0.001); in both groups, WAZ, CD4% and VL improved after ART with no difference in rate of WAZ and CD4% gain (p=0.421 and 0.207, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Children at CHs had more severe immunological suppression and low WAZ at baseline. Community- and tertiary care-based paediatric ART follow-ups result in equally beneficial outcomes with the strengthening of a provincial referral network between tertiary and community care. Nutrition interventions may benefit children in community-based HIV treatment and care.

Hospitalization trends, costs, and risk factors in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To assess hospitalization trends in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Thailand, an important indicator of morbidity, ART effectiveness, and health service utilization.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort

METHOD

Children initiating ART in 1999-2009 were followed in 40 public hospitals. Hospitalization rate per 100 person-years were calculated from ART initiation to last follow-up/death. Costs to the healthcare provider were calculated using WHO inpatient estimates for Thailand. Zero-inflated Poisson models were used to examine risk factors for early (<12 months of ART) and late hospitalization (≥12 months) and frequency of admissions.

RESULTS

A total of 578 children initiated ART, median follow-up being 64 months [interquartile range (IQR) 43-82]; 211 (37%) children were hospitalized with 451 admissions. Hospitalization rates declined from 63 per 100 person-years at less than 6 months to approximately 10 per 100 person-years after 2 years of ART, and costs fell from $35 per patient-month to under $5, respectively. Age less than 2 years, US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention stage B/C, and stunting at ART initiation were associated with early hospitalization. Among those hospitalized, baseline CD4 cell percentage less than 5%, wasting, initiation on dual therapy, late calendar year, and female sex were associated with higher incidence of early admissions (P <0.02). There were no predictors of late hospitalization, although previous hospitalization in less than 12 months of ART was associated with three times higher incidence of late admissions (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

One in three children required hospitalization after ART. Admissions were highest in the first year of therapy and rapidly declined thereafter. Young age, advanced disease stage, and stunting at baseline were predictive of early hospitalization. Treatment initiation before disease progression would likely reduce hospitalization and alleviate demands on healthcare services.

Vertically transmitted HIV infection having first clinical manifestations at 13 y of age

Untreated vertically transmitted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection progresses rapidly with 50% mortality at 1 y and most of the remainder dying before 5 y of age. The authors present a case of a 13-y-old boy, a paternal orphan with vertically transmitted HIV infection, lost to follow up after diagnosis in infancy, surviving to date without any major illness or medical intervention, till the present episode of full blown AIDS. The boy presented with shock, pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), disseminated tuberculosis, Herpes Simplex Type 1 (HSV-1) infection, anemia, malnutrition and oral candidiasis. Later he developed systemic candidiasis, transient renal and respiratory failure. CD4 counts were 41 cells/μl. He was managed with sulphamethoxazole/trimethoprim (SXTM) combination, anti tubercular therapy, fluconazole, anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and supportive measures with full recovery at 2 mo. Thus, better ART during antenatal care and immediately after birth are likely to see more of such children survive to teenage and adulthood.

Community adherence support improves programme retention in children on antiretroviral treatment: a multicentre cohort study in South Africa

Background

HIV-positive children in low-income settings face many challenges to adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and have increased mortality on treatment compared to children in developed countries. Adult ART programmes have demonstrated benefit from community support to improve treatment outcomes; however, there are no empirical data on the effectiveness of this intervention in children. This study compared clinical, virological and immunological outcomes between children who received and who did not receive community-based adherence support from patient advocates (PAs) in four South African provinces.

Methods

A multicentre cohort study of ART-naïve children was conducted at 47 public ART facilities. Outcome measures were mortality, patient retention, virological suppression and CD4 percentage changes on ART. PAs are lay community health workers who provide adherence and psychosocial support for children's caregivers, and they undertake home visits to ascertain household challenges potentially impacting on adherence in the child. Corrected mortality estimates were calculated, correcting for deaths amongst those lost to follow-up (LTFU) using probability-weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox functions.

Results

Three thousand five hundred and sixty three children were included with a median baseline age of 6.3 years and a median baseline CD4 cell percentage of 12.0%. PA-supported children numbered 323 (9.1%). Baseline clinical status variables were equivalent between the two groups. Amongst children LTFU, 38.7% were known to have died. Patient retention after 3 years of ART was 91.5% (95% CI: 86.8% to 94.7%) vs. 85.6% (95% CI: 83.3% to 87.6%) amongst children with and without PAs, respectively (p =0.027). Amongst children aged below 2 years at baseline, retention after 3 years was 92.2% (95% CI: 76.7% to 97.6%) vs. 74.2% (95% CI: 65.4% to 81.0%) in children with and without PAs, respectively (p=0.053). Corrected mortality after 3 years of ART was 3.7% (95% CI: 1.9% to 7.4%) vs. 8.0% (95% CI: 6.5% to 9.8%) amongst children with and without PAs, respectively (p=0.060). In multivariable analyses, children with PAs had reduced probabilities of both attrition and mortality, adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 0.57 (95% CI: 0.35 to 0.94) and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.15 to 1.04), respectively.

Conclusion

Community-based adherence support is an effective way to improve patient retention amongst children on ART. Expanded implementation of this intervention should be considered in order to reach ART programmatic goals in low-income settings as more children access treatment.

Mortality and loss to follow-up in the first year of ART: Malawi national ART programme

OBJECTIVES

To analyse mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and retention on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the first year of ART across all age groups in the Malawi national ART programme.

DESIGN

Cohort study including all patients who started ART in Malawi's public sector clinics between 2004 and 2007.

METHODS

ART registers were photographed, information entered into a database and merged with data from clinics with electronic records. Rates per 100 patient-years and cumulative incidence of retention were calculated. Subhazard ratios (sHRs) of outcomes adjusted for patient and clinic-level characteristics were calculated in multivariable analysis, applying competing risk models.

RESULTS

A total of 117,945 patients contributed 85,246 person-years: 1.0% were infants below 2 years, 7.4% children 2-14, 7.5% young people 15-24, and 84.2% adults 25 years and above. Sixty percent of patients were female: women outnumbered men from age 14 to 35 years. Mortality and LTFU were higher in men from age 20 years. Infants and young people had the highest rates per 100 person-years for mortality (23.0 and 19.4) and LTFU (24.7 and 19.3), and the highest adjusted relative risks compared to age group 25-34 years: sHRs were 1.37 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-1.60] and 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.25) for death and 1.37 (95% CI 1.18-1.59) and 1.27 (95% CI 1.19-1.35) for LTFU, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this country-wide study patients aged 0-1 and 15-24 years had the highest risk of death and LTFU, and from age 20 men were at higher risk than women. Interventions to improve outcomes in these patient groups are required.

Temporal trends in baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral treatment: an analysis in four provinces in South Africa, 2004-2009

BACKGROUND

Few studies describe temporal trends in pediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Adult studies show deteriorating patient retention in recent years. We describe temporal trends in baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes amongst ART-naive children between 2004 and 2009 at 30 facilities in 4 South African provinces.

METHODS

Linear trend in baseline parameters between annual enrolment cohorts was assessed. Corrected mortality estimates were calculated, correcting for deaths amongst those lost to follow-up using probability-weighted Kaplan-Meier functions. On-treatment immunologic changes were modelled using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Three thousand and seven children (median age 6.4 years) were included. Monthly enrollment increased from 1.9 children in 2004 to 106 in 2009. Proportions with severe baseline immunodeficiency decreased from 85.5% to 64.5% between 2004/2005 and 2009, P < 0.0005. Proportions with baseline World Health Organization clinical stages III and IV reduced from 72.9% to 49.0% between 2006 and 2009, P < 0.0005. Later calendar cohorts had independently and progressively reduced on-treatment probabilities of severe immunodeficiency despite adjusting for baseline immunological status, adjusted odds ratio: 0.38 [confidence interval (CI): 0.26 to 0.55; P < 0.0005; 2008/2009 compared with 2004/2005]. After 24 months, corrected mortality was 6.1% (CI: 5.1% to 7.3%) and loss to follow-up was 6.8% (CI: 5.7% to 8.2%), with no deterioration amongst more recently enrolled cohorts (P = 0.50 and P = 0.55, respectively). After 4 years, program retention was 84.1% (CI: 80.9% to 86.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Childrens' baseline condition when starting ART has improved considerably. Improving immunological treatment outcomes, the high medium-term patient retention with lack of temporal deterioration despite rapid patient number increases, provide evidence that pediatric ART programs are increasingly effective for those accessing them. However, children must start treatment when younger, following current international guidelines.

The effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the survival of HIV-infected children in a resource-deprived setting: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the survival of HIV-infected children has not been well quantified. Because most pediatric HIV occurs in low- and middle-income countries, our objective was to provide a first estimate of this effect among children living in a resource-deprived setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Observational data from HAART-naïve children enrolled into an HIV care and treatment program in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, between December 2004 and May 2010 were analyzed. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of HAART on survival while accounting for time-dependent confounders affected by exposure. At the start of follow-up, the median age of the 790 children was 5.9 y, 528 (66.8%) had advanced or severe immunodeficiency, and 405 (51.3%) were in HIV clinical stage 3 or 4. The children were observed for a median of 31.2 mo and contributed a total of 2,089.8 person-years. Eighty children (10.1%) died, 619 (78.4%) initiated HAART, six (0.8%) transferred to a different care provider, and 76 (9.6%) were lost to follow-up. The mortality rate was 3.2 deaths per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-4.2) during receipt of HAART and 6.0 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.1-8.6) during receipt of primary HIV care only. The mortality hazard ratio comparing HAART with no HAART from a marginal structural model was 0.25 (95% CI 0.06-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

HAART reduced the hazard of mortality in HIV-infected children in Kinshasa by 75%, an estimate that is similar in magnitude but with lower precision than the reported effect of HAART on survival among children in the United States. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Economic evaluation of monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) management for HIV-infected children is critical in many resource-constrained countries. We investigated the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of different frequencies of monitoring plasma viral load among HIV-positive children initiating ART in a resource-limited setting.

DESIGN/METHODS

A stochastic agent-based simulation model was built and directly informed by a cohort of 304 HIV-infected children starting ART in Thailand between 2001 and 2009. The model simulated the expected costs and clinical outcomes over time according to different viral load monitoring frequencies and initiation of second-line therapies when appropriate.

RESULTS

The optimal frequency of viral load monitoring was found to be annual, after a single screening at 6 months. Associated costs of viral load monitoring and appropriate ART would approximately triple current treatment costs. Compared with current conditions, a single screening during the first year of ART led to a 58.4% reduction in the total person-years of virological failure with annual monitoring leading to a 76.6% reduction. The incremental cost per quality adjusted life year gained from the optimal monitoring frequency was estimated as US$ 68,084 when including costs of ART and US$ 7224 without ART costs. The estimated cost attributed to preventing 1 year of virological failure was US$ 3393 with ART costs and US$ 359 without ART costs.

CONCLUSION

Even infrequent viral load monitoring is likely to provide substantial clinical benefit to HIV-infected children on ART. Viral load monitoring can be considered cost-effective in many resource-limited settings. However, the costs associated with second-line therapies could be a barrier to its economic feasibility.