Landfast ice: a major driver of reproductive success in a polar seabird

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

Remote sensing of emperor penguin abundance and breeding success

Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are under increasing environmental pressure. Monitoring colony size and population trends of this Antarctic seabird relies primarily on satellite imagery recorded near the end of the breeding season, when light conditions levels are sufficient to capture images, but colony occupancy is highly variable. To correct population estimates for this variability, we develop a phenological model that can predict the number of breeding pairs and fledging chicks, as well as key phenological events such as arrival, hatching and foraging times, from as few as six data points from a single season. The ability to extrapolate occupancy from sparse data makes the model particularly useful for monitoring remotely sensed animal colonies where ground-based population estimates are rare or unavailable.

Delay in Adélie penguin nest occupation restricts parental investment in nest construction and reduces reproductive output

Reproductive success is an important demographic parameter that can be driven by environmental and behavioural factors operating on various spatio-temporal scales. As seabirds breed on land and forage in the ocean, processes occurring in both environments can influence their reproductive success. At various locations around East Antarctica, Adélie penguins' (Pygoscelis adeliae) reproductive success has been negatively linked to extensive sea-ice. In contrast, our study site in the Windmill Islands has limited fast ice present during the breeding season, allowing us to examine drivers of reproductive success under vastly different marine environmental conditions. Here, we examined the reproductive success of 450 Adélie penguin nests over a 10-year period using images obtained from remotely operated cameras. We analysed nest survival in relation to marine and climatic factors, environmental conditions at the camera site and immediately around the nest, and behavioural attributes reflecting parental investment and phenological timing. Our key result was a strong positive association between nest structure and chick survival, particularly when ground moisture and snow cover around the nest were high. Earlier nesting birds were more likely to build bigger nests, although it is unclear whether this is due to more time available to build nests or whether early arrival and high-quality nests are complementary traits. This intrinsic activity is likely to become more important if future predictions of increased snowfall in this region manifest.

The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change

Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.