Effect of the initial dose of foot-and-mouth disease virus on the early viral dynamics within pigs

Measles Infection Dose Responses: Insights from Mathematical Modeling

How viral infections develop can change based on the number of viruses initially entering the body. The understanding of the impacts of infection doses remains incomplete, in part due to challenging constraints, and a lack of research. Gaining more insights is crucial regarding the measles virus (MV). The higher the MV infection dose, the earlier the peak of acute viremia, but the magnitude of the peak viremia remains almost constant. Measles is highly contagious, causes immunosuppression such as lymphopenia, and contributes substantially to childhood morbidity and mortality. This work investigated mechanisms underlying the observed wild-type measles infection dose responses in cynomolgus monkeys. We fitted longitudinal data on viremia using maximum likelihood estimation, and used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate relevant biological hypotheses and their respective model parameterizations. The lowest AIC indicates a linear relationship between the infection dose, the initial viral load, and the initial number of activated MV-specific T cells. Early peak viremia is associated with high initial number of activated MV-specific T cells. Thus, when MV infection dose increases, the initial viremia and associated immune cell stimulation increase, and reduce the time it takes for T cell killing to be sufficient, thereby allowing dose-independent peaks for viremia, MV-specific T cells, and lymphocyte depletion. Together, these results suggest that the development of measles depends on virus-host interactions at the start and the efficiency of viral control by cellular immunity. These relationships are additional motivations for prevention, vaccination, and early treatment for measles.

Quantifying the relationship between within-host dynamics and transmission for viral diseases of livestock

Understanding the population dynamics of an infectious disease requires linking within-host dynamics and between-host transmission in a quantitative manner, but this is seldom done in practice. Here a simple phenomenological model for viral dynamics within a host is linked to between-host transmission by assuming that the probability of transmission is related to log viral titre. Data from transmission experiments for two viral diseases of livestock, foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle and swine influenza virus in pigs, are used to parametrize the model and, importantly, test the underlying assumptions. The model allows the relationship between within-host parameters and transmission to be determined explicitly through their influence on the reproduction number and generation time. Furthermore, these critical within-host parameters (time and level of peak titre, viral growth and clearance rates) can be computed from more complex within-host models, raising the possibility of assessing the impact of within-host processes on between-host transmission in a more detailed quantitative manner.

Zika virus dynamics: Effects of inoculum dose, the innate immune response and viral interference

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

The relationship between the infecting dose of a pathogen and the subsequent viral dynamics is unclear in many disease settings, and this relationship has implications for both the timing and the required efficacy of antiviral therapy. Since experimental challenge studies often employ higher doses of virus than would generally be present in natural infection assessment of this relationship is particularly important for translation of findings. In this study we used mathematical modelling of viral load data from a multi-dose study of Zika virus infection in a macaque model to describe the impact of varying the dose of Zika virus on model parameters, and developed a novel mathematical model incorporating viral interference with the innate immune response.

Modelling infectious viral diseases in swine populations: a state of the art

Mathematical modelling is nowadays a pivotal tool for infectious diseases studies, completing regular biological investigations. The rapid growth of computer technology allowed for development of computational tools to address biological issues that could not be unravelled in the past. The global understanding of viral disease dynamics requires to account for all interactions at all levels, from within-host to between-herd, to have all the keys for development of control measures. A literature review was performed to disentangle modelling frameworks according to their major objectives and methodologies. One hundred and seventeen articles published between 1994 and 2020 were found to meet our inclusion criteria, which were defined to target papers representative of studies dealing with models of viral infection dynamics in pigs. A first descriptive analysis, using bibliometric indexes, permitted to identify keywords strongly related to the study scopes. Modelling studies were focused on particular infectious agents, with a shared objective: to better understand the viral dynamics for appropriate control measure adaptation. In a second step, selected papers were analysed to disentangle the modelling structures according to the objectives of the studies. The system representation was highly dependent on the nature of the pathogens. Enzootic viruses, such as swine influenza or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, were generally investigated at the herd scale to analyse the impact of husbandry practices and prophylactic measures on infection dynamics. Epizootic agents (classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease or African swine fever viruses) were mostly studied using spatio-temporal simulation tools, to investigate the efficiency of surveillance and control protocols, which are predetermined for regulated diseases. A huge effort was made on model parameterization through the development of specific studies and methodologies insuring the robustness of parameter values to feed simulation tools. Integrative modelling frameworks, from within-host to spatio-temporal models, is clearly on the way. This would allow to capture the complexity of individual biological variabilities and to assess their consequences on the whole system at the population level. This would offer the opportunity to test and evaluate in silico the efficiency of possible control measures targeting specific epidemiological units, from hosts to herds, either individually or through their contact networks. Such decision support tools represent a strength for stakeholders to help mitigating infectious diseases dynamics and limiting economic consequences.

Reliable and Standardized Animal Models to Study the Pathogenesis of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg Viruses in Ruminant Natural Host Species with Special Emphasis on Placental Crossing

Starting in 2006, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8) was responsible for a major epizootic in Western and Northern Europe. The magnitude and spread of the disease were surprisingly high and the control of BTV improved significantly with the marketing of BTV8 inactivated vaccines in 2008. During late summer of 2011, a first cluster of reduced milk yield, fever, and diarrhoea was reported in the Netherlands. Congenital malformations appeared in March 2012 and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was identified, becoming one of the very few orthobunyaviruses distributed in Europe. At the start of both epizootics, little was known about the pathogenesis and epidemiology of these viruses in the European context and most assumptions were extrapolated based on other related viruses and/or other regions of the World. Standardized and repeatable models potentially mimicking clinical signs observed in the field are required to study the pathogenesis of these infections, and to clarify their ability to cross the placental barrier. This review presents some of the latest experimental designs for infectious disease challenges with BTV or SBV. Infectious doses, routes of infection, inoculum preparation, and origin are discussed. Particular emphasis is given to the placental crossing associated with these two viruses.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Infection Dynamics in Contact-Exposed Pigs Are Determined by the Estimated Exposure Dose

The quantitative relationship between the exposure dose of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and subsequent infection dynamics has been demonstrated through controlled inoculation studies in various species. However, similar quantitation of viral doses has not been achieved during contact exposure experiments due to the intrinsic difficulty of measuring the virus quantities exchanged between animals. In the current study, novel modeling techniques were utilized to investigate FMDV infection dynamics in groups of pigs that had been contact-exposed to FMDV-infected donors shedding varying levels of virus, as well as in pigs inoculated via the intra-oropharyngeal (IOP) route. Estimated virus exposure doses were modeled and were found to be statistically significantly associated with the dynamics of FMDV RNA detection in serum and oropharyngeal fluid (OPF), and with the time to onset of clinical disease. The minimum estimated shedding quantity in OPF that defined infectiousness of donor pigs was 6.55 log₁₀ genome copy numbers (GCN)/ml (95% CI 6.11, 6.98), which delineated the transition from the latent to infectious phase of disease which occurred during the incubation phase. This quantity corresponded to a minimum estimated exposure dose of 5.07 log₁₀ GCN/ml (95% CI 4.25, 5.89) in contact-exposed pigs. Thus, we demonstrated that a threshold quantity of FMDV detection in donor pigs was necessary in order to achieve transmission by direct contact. The outcomes from this investigation demonstrate that variability of infection dynamics which occurs during the progression of FMD in naturally exposed pigs can be partially attributed to variations in exposure dose. Moreover, these modeling approaches for dose-quantitation may be retrospectively applied to contact-exposure experiments or field scenarios. Hence, robust information could be incorporated into models used to evaluate FMD spread and control.

Modelling the Innate Immune Response against Avian Influenza Virus in Chicken

At present there is limited understanding of the host immune response to (low pathogenic) avian influenza virus infections in poultry. Here we develop a mathematical model for the innate immune response to avian influenza virus in chicken lung, describing the dynamics of viral load, interferon-α, -β and -γ, lung (i.e. pulmonary) cells and Natural Killer cells. We use recent results from experimentally infected chickens to validate some of the model predictions. The model includes an initial exponential increase of the viral load, which we show to be consistent with experimental data. Using this exponential growth model we show that the duration until a given viral load is reached in experiments with different inoculation doses is consistent with a model assuming a linear relationship between initial viral load and inoculation dose. Subsequent to the exponential-growth phase, the model results show a decline in viral load caused by both target-cell limitation as well as the innate immune response. The model results suggest that the temporal viral load pattern in the lungs displayed in experimental data cannot be explained by target-cell limitation alone. For biologically plausible parameter values the model is able to qualitatively match to data on viral load in chicken lungs up until approximately 4 days post infection. Comparison of model predictions with data on CD107-mediated degranulation of Natural Killer cells yields some discrepancy also for earlier days post infection.

Parameter Values for Epidemiological Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Swine

In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion, response strategies are required to control, contain, and eradicate the pathogen as efficiently as possible. Infectious disease simulation models are widely used tools that mimic disease dispersion in a population and that can be useful in the design and support of prevention and mitigation activities. However, there are often gaps in evidence-based research to supply models with quantities that are necessary to accurately reflect the system of interest. The objective of this study was to quantify values associated with the duration of the stages of FMD infection (latent period, subclinical period, incubation period, and duration of infection), probability of transmission (within-herd and between-herd via spatial spread), and diagnosis of a vesicular disease within a herd using a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion. The latent period ranged from 1 to 7 days and incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 days; both were influenced by strain. In contrast, the subclinical period ranged from 0 to 6 days and was influenced by sampling method only. The duration of infection ranged from 1 to 10 days. The probability of spatial spread between an infected and fully susceptible swine farm was estimated as greatest within 5 km of the infected farm, highlighting the importance of possible long-range transmission through the movement of infected animals. Finally, while most swine practitioners are confident in their ability to detect a vesicular disease in an average sized swine herd, a small proportion expect that up to half of the herd would need to show clinical signs before detection via passive surveillance would occur. The results of this study will be useful in within- and between-herd simulation models to develop efficient response strategies in the event an FMD in swine populations of disease-free countries or regions.

Using shared needles for subcutaneous inoculation can transmit bluetongue virus mechanically between ruminant hosts

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important arbovirus of ruminants that is transmitted by Culicoides spp. biting midges. BTV infection of ruminants results in a high viraemia, suggesting that repeated sharing of needles between animals could result in its iatrogenic transmission. Studies defining the risk of iatrogenic transmission of blood-borne pathogens by less invasive routes, such as subcutaneous or intradermal inoculations are rare, even though the sharing of needles is common practice for these inoculation routes in the veterinary sector. Here we demonstrate that BTV can be transmitted by needle sharing during subcutaneous inoculation, despite the absence of visible blood contamination of the needles. The incubation period, measured from sharing of needles, to detection of BTV in the recipient sheep or cattle, was substantially longer than has previously been reported after experimental infection of ruminants by either direct inoculation of virus, or through blood feeding by infected Culicoides. Although such mechanical transmission is most likely rare under field condition, these results are likely to influence future advice given in relation to sharing needles during veterinary vaccination campaigns and will also be of interest for the public health sector considering the risk of pathogen transmission during subcutaneous inoculations with re-used needles.

Impact of route of exposure and challenge dose on the pathogenesis of H7N9 low pathogenicity avian influenza virus in chickens

H7N9 influenza A first caused human infections in early 2013 in China. Virus genetics, histories of patient exposures to poultry, and previous experimental studies suggest the source of the virus is a domestic avian species, such as chickens. In order to better understand the ecology of this H7N9 in chickens, we evaluated the infectious dose and pathogenesis of A/Anhui/1/2013 H7N9 in two common breeds of chickens, White Leghorns (table-egg layers) and White Plymouth Rocks (meat chickens). No morbidity or mortality were observed with doses of 10(6) or 10(8)EID50/bird when administered by the upper-respiratory route, and the mean infectious dose (10(6) EID50) was higher than expected, suggesting that the virus is poorly adapted to chickens. Virus was shed at higher titers and spread to the kidneys in chickens inoculated by the intravenous route. Challenge experiments with three other human-origin H7N9 viruses showed a similar pattern of virus replication.

Within-host viral dynamics of dengue serotype 1 infection

Dengue, the most common mosquito-borne viral infection of humans, is endemic across much of the world, including much of tropical Asia and is increasing in its geographical range. Here, we present a mathematical model of dengue virus dynamics within infected individuals, detailing the interaction between virus and a simple immune response. We fit this model to measurements of plasma viral titre from cases of primary and secondary DENV 1 infection in Vietnam. We show that variation in model parameters governing the immune response is sufficient to create the observed variation in virus dynamics between individuals. Estimating model parameter values, we find parameter differences between primary and secondary cases consistent with the theory of antibody-dependent enhancement (namely enhanced rates of viral entry to target cells in secondary cases). Finally, we use our model to examine the potential impact of an antiviral drug on the within-host dynamics of dengue. We conclude that the impact of antiviral therapy on virus dynamics is likely to be limited if therapy is only started at the onset of symptoms, owing to the typically late stage of viral pathogenesis reached by the time symptoms are manifested and thus treatment is started.

Modeling inoculum dose dependent patterns of acute virus infections

Inoculum dose, i.e. the number of pathogens at the beginning of an infection, often affects key aspects of pathogen and immune response dynamics. These in turn determine clinically relevant outcomes, such as morbidity and mortality. Despite the general recognition that inoculum dose is an important component of infection outcomes, we currently do not understand its impact in much detail. This study is intended to start filling this knowledge gap by analyzing inoculum dependent patterns of viral load dynamics in acute infections. Using experimental data for adenovirus and infectious bronchitis virus infections as examples, we demonstrate inoculum dose dependent patterns of virus dynamics. We analyze the data with the help of mathematical models to investigate what mechanisms can reproduce the patterns observed in experimental data. We find that models including components of both the innate and adaptive immune response are needed to reproduce the patterns found in the data. We further analyze which types of innate or adaptive immune response models agree with observed data. One interesting finding is that only models for the adaptive immune response that contain growth terms partially independent of viral load can properly reproduce observed patterns. This agrees with the idea that an antigen-independent, programmed response is part of the adaptive response. Our analysis provides useful insights into the types of model structures that are required to properly reproduce observed virus dynamics for varying inoculum doses. We suggest that such models should be taken as basis for future models of acute viral infections.

Culicoides midge bites modulate the host response and impact on bluetongue virus infection in sheep

Many haematophagous insects produce factors that help their blood meal and coincidently favor pathogen transmission. However nothing is known about the ability of Culicoides midges to interfere with the infectivity of the viruses they transmit. Among these, Bluetongue Virus (BTV) induces a hemorrhagic fever- type disease and its recent emergence in Europe had a major economical impact. We observed that needle inoculation of BTV8 in the site of uninfected C. nubeculosus feeding reduced viraemia and clinical disease intensity compared to plain needle inoculation. The sheep that developed the highest local inflammatory reaction had the lowest viral load, suggesting that the inflammatory response to midge bites may participate in the individual sensitivity to BTV viraemia development. Conversely compared to needle inoculation, inoculation of BTV8 by infected C. nubeculosus bites promoted viraemia and clinical symptom expression, in association with delayed IFN- induced gene expression and retarded neutralizing antibody responses. The effects of uninfected and infected midge bites on BTV viraemia and on the host response indicate that BTV transmission by infected midges is the most reliable experimental method to study the physio-pathological events relevant to a natural infection and to pertinent vaccine evaluation in the target species. It also leads the way to identify the promoting viral infectivity factors of infected Culicoides in order to possibly develop new control strategies against BTV and other Culicoides transmitted viruses.

Modelling the within-host dynamics of the foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle

In this paper we investigate the within-host dynamics of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cattle using previously published data for 8 experimentally infected cows. An 8-compartment, 14-parameter differential equation model was fitted to data collected from each cow every 24 h over the course of an infection on: (i) the concentration of FMDV genomes in the blood, (ii) the concentration of infectious virus in the blood, (iii) antibody levels, and (iv) interferon levels. Model parameters were estimated using maximum-likelihood methods. The likelihood surface was sampled using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods giving credible intervals for each of the model parameters. The model was able to capture the within-host dynamics well for 6 of the infections, with both the innate (type 1 interferon) and antibody responses playing key roles in determining the height and duration of peak levels of virus. There was considerable variation between virus dynamics in individual cattle which was only partly accounted for by inferred differences in the dose of virus received. A better understanding of the within-host dynamics also provides insights into the dynamics of infectiousness and the transmission of virus to new hosts.

Analysis of host genetic diversity and viral entry as sources of between-host variation in viral load

Little is known about the factors that drive the high levels of between-host variation in pathogen burden that are frequently observed in viral infections. Here, two factors thought to impact viral load variability, host genetic diversity and stochastic processes linked with viral entry into the host, were examined. This work was conducted with the aquatic vertebrate virus, Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), in its natural host, rainbow trout. It was found that in controlled in vivo infections of IHNV, a suggestive trend of reduced between-fish viral load variation was observed in a clonal population of isogenic trout compared to a genetically diverse population of out-bred trout. However, this trend was not statistically significant for any of the four viral genotypes examined, and high levels of fish-to-fish variation persisted even in the isogenic trout population. A decrease in fish-to-fish viral load variation was also observed in virus injection challenges that bypassed the host entry step, compared to fish exposed to the virus through the natural water-borne immersion route of infection. This trend was significant for three of the four virus genotypes examined and suggests host entry may play a role in viral load variability. However, high levels of viral load variation also remained in the injection challenges. Together, these results indicate that although host genetic diversity and viral entry may play some role in between-fish viral load variation, they are not major factors. Other biological and non-biological parameters that may influence viral load variation are discussed.

Relationship between clinical signs and transmission of an infectious disease and the implications for control

Control of many infectious diseases relies on the detection of clinical cases and the isolation, removal, or treatment of cases and their contacts. The success of such "reactive" strategies is influenced by the fraction of transmission occurring before signs appear. We performed experimental studies of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in cattle and estimated this fraction at less than half the value expected from detecting virus in body fluids, the standard proxy measure of infectiousness. This is because the infectious period is shorter (mean 1.7 days) than currently realized, and animals are not infectious until, on average, 0.5 days after clinical signs appear. These results imply that controversial preemptive control measures may be unnecessary; instead, efforts should be directed at early detection of infection and rapid intervention.

The length of BTV-8 viraemia in cattle according to infection doses and diagnostic techniques

Four groups of BTV free Frisian and cross bred calves were used to determine the length of viraemia following infection with different doses of BTV-8 Italian isolate. The first group of five animals was infected with 10 TCID(50) of BTV-8, the second group of four animals with 10(3) TCID(50) and the third group, which also included four animals, was infected with 10(6) TCID(50). A placebo containing uninfected tissue culture medium was given to the four animals of the fourth group. The viraemia was evaluated by real time RT-PCR and virus isolation. In all infected groups, virus isolation was able to detect infectious virus up to 39 days post infection (dpi) while RT-PCR was positive up to 151-157dpi. Infectious dose did influence neither the length nor the pattern of BTV-8 viraemia and confirmed that real time RT-PCR remains positive although no circulating virus is detectable in the peripheral circulation.

Methods of modelling viral disease dynamics across the within- and between-host scales: the impact of virus dose on host population immunity

We study the epidemiology of a viral disease with dose-dependent replication and transmission by nesting a differential-equation model of the within-host viral dynamics inside a between-host epidemiological model. We use two complementary approaches for nesting the models: an agent-based (AB) simulation and a mean-field approximation called the growth-matrix (GM) model. We find that although infection rates and predicted case loads are somewhat different between the AB and GM models, several epidemiological parameters, e.g. mean immunity in the population and mean dose received, behave similarly across the methods. Further, through a comparison of our dose-dependent replication model against two control models that uncouple dose-dependent replication from transmission, we find that host immunity in a population after an epidemic is qualitatively different than when transmission depends on time-varying viral abundances within hosts. These results show that within-host dynamics and viral dose should not be neglected in epidemiological models, and that the simpler GM approach to model nesting provides a reasonable tradeoff between model complexity and accuracy of results.

Influence of exposure intensity on the efficiency and speed of transmission of Foot-and-mouth disease

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) can be spread by direct animal-to-animal contact, indirect contact facilitated by contaminated materials or by airborne spread. The rate of spread and the incubation period, as well as the severity of disease, depends on many variables including the dose received, the route of introduction, the virus strain, the animal species and the conditions under which the animals are kept. Quantitative data related to these variables are needed if model predictions are to be used in practical disease control. This experimental study quantifies the risk of transmission of FMDV in pigs exposed by contact, sheep exposed by indirect contact with pigs and sheep exposed to airborne FMDV. Groups of pigs were inoculated with the FMDV O UKG 34/2001 strain and susceptible pigs were then exposed to the inoculated animals at different stages of the infection cycle. The mean incubation period in the susceptible pigs ranged from 1 to 10 days. The length of the incubation period, severity of clinical disease and efficiency of spread were related to dose (i.e. infectiousness of source and intensity of contact). Low intensity transmission increased the proportion of subclinical or abortive infections. Local conditions are important in the efficiency and speed of transmission of FMDV. The results of the experiments described above suggest that transmission is frequency dependent rather than density dependent. The sheep experiments provided further evidence that development of infection and clinical disease is dependent upon local conditions. Dose, infectiousness, intensity of contact and local factors are thus important determinants for the outcome of an initial outbreak and must be truthfully accounted for in mathematical models of epidemiological spread.