Conceptually plausible Bayesian inference in interval timing

The Bayesian Mutation Sampler Explains Distributions of Causal Judgments

One consistent finding in the causal reasoning literature is that causal judgments are rather variable. In particular, distributions of probabilistic causal judgments tend not to be normal and are often not centered on the normative response. As an explanation for these response distributions, we propose that people engage in 'mutation sampling' when confronted with a causal query and integrate this information with prior information about that query. The Mutation Sampler model (Davis & Rehder, 2020) posits that we approximate probabilities using a sampling process, explaining the average responses of participants on a wide variety of tasks. Careful analysis, however, shows that its predicted response distributions do not match empirical distributions. We develop the Bayesian Mutation Sampler (BMS) which extends the original model by incorporating the use of generic prior distributions. We fit the BMS to experimental data and find that, in addition to average responses, the BMS explains multiple distributional phenomena including the moderate conservatism of the bulk of responses, the lack of extreme responses, and spikes of responses at 50%.

Memory decay enhances central bias in time perception

Temporal expectations are essential for appropriately interacting with the environment, but they can be biased. This tendency, called central bias, places higher weights on expected rather than actual duration distributions when perceiving incoming sensory stimuli. In particular, the central bias is strengthened in order to decrease total response error when incoming sensory stimuli are unclear. In the present study, we investigated whether the central bias was enhanced via memory decay. For this, we used a delayed reproduction task, manipulating retention periods by introducing delays between the sample interval and the reproduction phase (0.4, 2, 4 s in Experiment 1; 0.4, 2, 8 s in Experiments 2 and 3). Through three experiments, we found the gradual strengthening of the central bias as a function of the retention period (i.e., short-term memory decay). This suggests that the integration of temporal expectation, generated from past trials and stored sensory stimuli, in a current trial occurs in the reproduction phase in the delayed reproduction task.