Conserving evolutionary history does not result in greater diversity over geological time scales

A conservation planning strategy applied to the evolutionary history of the mantellid frogs of Madagascar

Phylogenetic diversity is an increasingly applied metric used to maximize the representation of evolutionary history in spatial conservation planning. When following this approach, researchers commonly overlook sites with a relatively higher proportion of recently diverged endemic species, also known as centers of neo-endemism. Here we aim to demonstrate how targeting the conservation of different facets of diversity (taxonomic diversity, phylogenetic diversity and centers of endemism) can provide more cost-effective solutions to the conservation of the all evolutionary spectrum of biodiversity. We do so by using the mantellid frogs of Madagascar as a case study. Our results confirm that areas with high concentrations of neo-endemism can be effectively identified as conservation planning priorities only if we specifically target them. Neglecting areas that are poor in phylogenetic diversity may therefore compromise the maintenance of diversification processes, particularly when lesser proportions of the landscape are protected. This approach can be of particular interest to island ecosystems, since they often harbor unique and restricted evolutionary radiations.

The relationship between geographic range size and rates of species diversification

Range size is a universal characteristic of every biological species, and is often assumed to affect diversification rate. There are strong theoretical arguments that large-ranged species should have higher rates of diversification. On the other hand, the observation that small-ranged species are often phylogenetically clustered might indicate high diversification of small-ranged species. This discrepancy between theory and the data may be caused by the fact that typical methods of data analysis do not account for range size changes during speciation. Here we use a cladogenetic state-dependent diversification model applied to mammals to show that range size changes during speciation are ubiquitous and small-ranged species indeed diversify generally slower, as theoretically expected. However, both range size and diversification are strongly influenced by idiosyncratic and spatially localized events, such as colonization of an archipelago or a mountain system, which often override the general pattern of range size evolution.

The rise and fall of proboscidean ecological diversity

Proboscideans were keystone Cenozoic megaherbivores and present a highly relevant case study to frame the timing and magnitude of recent megafauna extinctions against long-term macroevolutionary patterns. By surveying the entire proboscidean fossil history using model-based approaches, we show that the dramatic Miocene explosion of proboscidean functional diversity was triggered by their biogeographical expansion beyond Africa. Ecomorphological innovations drove niche differentiation; communities that accommodated several disparate proboscidean species in sympatry became commonplace. The first burst of extinctions took place in the late Miocene, approximately 7 million years ago (Ma). Importantly, this and subsequent extinction trends showed high ecomorphological selectivity and went hand in hand with palaeoclimate dynamics. The global extirpation of proboscideans began escalating from 3 Ma with further extinctions in Eurasia and then a dramatic increase in African extinctions at 2.4 Ma. Overhunting by humans may have served as a final double jeopardy in the late Pleistocene after climate-triggered extinction trends that began long before hominins evolved suitable hunting capabilities.

Revisiting species and areas of interest for conserving global mammalian phylogenetic diversity

Various prioritisation strategies have been developed to cope with accelerating biodiversity loss and limited conservation resources. These strategies could become more engaging for decision-makers if they reflected the positive effects conservation can have on future projected biodiversity, by targeting net positive outcomes in future projected biodiversity, rather than reflecting the negative consequences of further biodiversity losses only. Hoping to inform the post-2020 biodiversity framework, we here apply this approach of targeting net positive outcomes in future projected biodiversity to phylogenetic diversity (PD) to re-identify species and areas of interest for conserving global mammalian PD. We identify priority species/areas as those whose protection would maximise gains in future projected PD. We also identify loss-significant species/areas as those whose/where extinction(s) would maximise losses in future projected PD. We show that our priority species/areas differ from loss-significant species/areas. While our priority species are mostly similar to those identified by the EDGE of Existence Programme, our priority areas generally differ from previously-identified ones for global mammal conservation. We further highlight that these newly-identified species/areas of interest currently lack protection and offer some guidance for their future management.

Punctuated ecological equilibrium in mammal communities over evolutionary time scales

The study of deep-time ecological dynamics has the ability to inform conservation decisions by anticipating the behavior of ecosystems millions of years into the future. Using network analysis and an exceptional fossil dataset spanning the past 21 million years, we show that mammalian ecological assemblages undergo long periods of functional stasis, notwithstanding high taxonomic volatility due to dispersal, speciation, and extinction. Higher functional richness and diversity promoted the persistence of functional faunas despite species extinction risk being indistinguishable among these different faunas. These findings, and the large mismatch between functional and taxonomic successions, indicate that although safeguarding functional diversity may or may not minimize species losses, it would certainly enhance the persistence of ecosystem functioning in the face of future disturbances.

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete’s plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete’s unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the ‘Anthropocene’ era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

How the past impacts the future: modelling the performance of evolutionarily distinct mammals through time

How does past evolutionary performance impact future evolutionary performance? This is an important question not just for macroevolutionary biologists who wish to chart the phenomena that describe deep-time changes in biodiversity but also for conservation biologists, as evolutionarily distinct species-which may be deemed 'low-performing' in our current era-are increasingly the focus of conservation efforts. Contrasting hypotheses exist to account for the history and future of evolutionarily distinct species: on the one hand, they may be relicts of large radiations, potentially 'doomed' to extinction; or they may be slow-evolving, 'living fossils', likely neither to speciate nor go extinct; or they may be seeds of future radiations. Here, we attempt to test these hypotheses in Mammalia by combining a molecular phylogenetic supertree with fossil record occurrences and measuring change in evolutionary distinctness (ED) at different time slices. With these time slices, we modelled future ED as a function of past ED. We find that past evolutionary performance does indeed have an impact on future evolutionary performance: the most evolutionarily isolated clades tend to become more evolutionarily distinct with time, indicating that low-performing clades tend to remain low-performing throughout their evolutionary history. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Assessing the utility of conserving evolutionary history

It is often claimed that conserving evolutionary history is more efficient than species-based approaches for capturing the attributes of biodiversity that benefit people. This claim underpins academic analyses and recommendations about the distribution and prioritization of species and areas for conservation, but evolutionary history is rarely considered in practical conservation activities. One impediment to implementation is that arguments related to the human-centric benefits of evolutionary history are often vague and the underlying mechanisms poorly explored. Herein we identify the arguments linking the prioritization of evolutionary history with benefits to people, and for each we explicate the purported mechanism, and evaluate its theoretical and empirical support. We find that, even after 25 years of academic research, the strength of evidence linking evolutionary history to human benefits is still fragile. Most - but not all - arguments rely on the assumption that evolutionary history is a useful surrogate for phenotypic diversity. This surrogacy relationship in turn underlies additional arguments, particularly that, by capturing more phenotypic diversity, evolutionary history will preserve greater ecosystem functioning, capture more of the natural variety that humans prefer, and allow the maintenance of future benefits to humans. A surrogate relationship between evolutionary history and phenotypic diversity appears reasonable given theoretical and empirical results, but the strength of this relationship varies greatly. To the extent that evolutionary history captures unmeasured phenotypic diversity, maximizing the representation of evolutionary history should capture variation in species characteristics that are otherwise unknown, supporting some of the existing arguments. However, there is great variation in the strength and availability of evidence for benefits associated with protecting phenotypic diversity. There are many studies finding positive biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, but little work exists on the maintenance of future benefits or the degree to which humans prefer sets of species with high phenotypic diversity or evolutionary history. Although several arguments link the protection of evolutionary history directly with the reduction of extinction rates, and with the production of relatively greater future biodiversity via increased adaptation or diversification, there are few direct tests. Several of these putative benefits have mismatches between the relevant spatial scales for conservation actions and the spatial scales at which benefits to humans are realized. It will be important for future work to fill in some of these gaps through direct tests of the arguments we define here.

Conserving evolutionary history does not result in greater diversity over geological time scales

Alternative prioritization strategies have been proposed to safeguard biodiversity over macroevolutionary time scales. The first prioritizes the most distantly related species—maximizing phylogenetic diversity (PD)—in the hopes of capturing at least some lineages that will successfully diversify into the future. The second prioritizes lineages that are currently speciating, in the hopes that successful lineages will continue to generate species into the future. These contrasting schemes also map onto contrasting predictions about the role of slow diversifiers in the production of biodiversity over palaeontological time scales. We consider the performance of the two schemes across 10 dated species-level palaeo-phylogenetic trees ranging from Foraminifera to dinosaurs. We find that prioritizing PD for conservation generally led to fewer subsequent lineages, while prioritizing diversifiers led to modestly more subsequent diversity, compared with random sets of lineages. Importantly for conservation, the tree shape when decisions are made cannot predict which scheme will be most successful. These patterns are inconsistent with the notion that long-lived lineages are the source of new species. While there may be sound reasons for prioritizing PD for conservation, long-term species production might not be one of them.