Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease

Genome resequencing reveals population divergence and local adaptation of blacklegged ticks in the United States

Tick vectors and tick-borne disease are increasingly impacting human populations globally. An important challenge is to understand tick movement patterns, as this information can be used to improve management and predictive modelling of tick population dynamics. Evolutionary analysis of genetic divergence, gene flow and local adaptation provides insight on movement patterns at large spatiotemporal scales. We develop low coverage, whole genome resequencing data for 92 blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis, representing range-wide variation across the United States. Through analysis of population genomic data, we find that tick populations are structured geographically, with gradual isolation by distance separating three population clusters in the northern United States, southeastern United States and a unique cluster represented by a sample from Tennessee. Populations in the northern United States underwent population contractions during the last glacial period and diverged from southern populations at least 50 thousand years ago. Genome scans of selection provide strong evidence of local adaptation at genes responding to host defences, blood-feeding and environmental variation. In addition, we explore the potential of low coverage genome sequencing of whole-tick samples for documenting the diversity of microbial pathogens and recover important tick-borne pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi. The combination of isolation by distance and local adaptation in blacklegged ticks demonstrates that gene flow, including recent expansion, is limited to geographical scales of a few hundred kilometres.

Mapping the distribution of Lyme disease at a mid-Atlantic site in the United States using electronic health data

Lyme disease is a spatially heterogeneous tick-borne infection, with approximately 85% of US cases concentrated in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Surveillance for Lyme disease and its causative agent, including public health case reporting and entomologic surveillance, is necessary to understand its endemic range, but currently used case detection methods have limitations. To evaluate an alternative approach to Lyme disease surveillance, we have performed a geospatial analysis of Lyme disease cases from the Johns Hopkins Health System in Maryland. We used two sources of cases: a) individuals with both a positive test for Lyme disease and a contemporaneous diagnostic code consistent with a Lyme disease-related syndrome; and b) individuals referred for a Lyme disease evaluation who were adjudicated to have Lyme disease. Controls were individuals from the referral cohort judged not to have Lyme disease. Residential address data were available for all cases and controls. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with a smoothing function for a coordinate location to evaluate the probability of Lyme disease within 100 km of Johns Hopkins Hospital. We found that the probability of Lyme disease was greatest in the north and west of Baltimore, and the local probability that a subject would have Lyme disease varied by as much as 30-fold. Adjustment for demographic and ecological variables partially attenuated the spatial gradient. Our study supports the suitability of electronic medical record data for the retrospective surveillance of Lyme disease.

Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.

Opposing Patterns of Spatial Synchrony in Lyme Disease Incidence

Incidence of Lyme disease, a tick-borne illness prevalent in the US, is increasing in endemic regions and regions with no previous history of the disease, significantly impacting public health. We examined space-time patterns of Lyme disease incidence and the influence of ecological and social factors on spatial synchrony, i.e., correlated incidence fluctuations across US counties. Specifically, we addressed these questions: Does Lyme disease incidence exhibit spatial synchrony? If so, what geographic patterns does Lyme disease synchrony exhibit? Are geographic patterns of disease synchrony related to weather, land cover, access to health care, or tick-borne disease awareness? How do effects of these variables on Lyme disease synchrony differ geographically? We used network analysis and matrix regression to examine geographical patterns of Lyme disease synchrony and their potential mechanisms in 399 counties in the eastern and Midwestern US. We found two distinct regions of synchrony in Northeast and upper Midwest regions exhibiting opposing temporal fluctuations in incidence. Spatial patterns of Lyme disease synchrony were partly explained by land cover, weather, poverty, and awareness of tick-borne illness, with significant predictive variables changing regionally. However, the two regions may have become more synchronous over time, potentially leading to higher-amplitude nation-wide fluctuations in disease incidence.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Phylogeography of the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) throughout the USA identifies candidate loci for differences in vectorial capacity

The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis (Journal of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, 1821, 2, 59)) is a vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.) (International Journal of Systematic Bacteriology, 1984, 34, 496), the causative bacterial agent of Lyme disease, part of a slow-moving epidemic of Lyme borreliosis spreading across the northern hemisphere. Well-known geographical differences in the vectorial capacity of these ticks are associated with genetic variation. Despite the need for detailed genetic information in this disease system, previous phylogeographical studies of these ticks have been restricted to relatively few populations or few genetic loci. Here we present the most comprehensive phylogeographical study of genome-wide markers in I. scapularis, conducted by using 3RAD (triple-enzyme restriction-site associated sequencing) and surveying 353 ticks from 33 counties throughout the species' range. We found limited genetic variation among populations from the Northeast and Upper Midwest, where Lyme disease is most common, and higher genetic variation among populations from the South. We identify five spatially associated genetic clusters of I. scapularis. In regions where Lyme disease is increasing in frequency, the I. scapularis populations genetically group with ticks from historically highly Lyme-endemic regions. Finally, we identify 10 variable DNA sites that contribute the most to population differentiation. These variable sites cluster on one of the chromosome-scale scaffolds for I. scapularis and are within identified genes. Our findings illuminate the need for additional research to identify loci causing variation in the vectorial capacity of I. scapularis and where additional tick sampling would be most valuable to further understand disease trends caused by pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis.

Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis

Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver-pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector-borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water-borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver-pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water-related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver-pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world.

Mapping the risk distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in China from 1986 to 2020: a geospatial modelling analysis

Lyme borreliosis, recognized as one of the most important tick-borne diseases worldwide, has been increasing in incidence and spatial extent. Currently, there are few geographic studies about the distribution of Lyme borreliosis risk across China. Here we established a nationwide database that involved Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi) detected in humans, vectors, and animals in China. The eco-environmental factors that shaped the spatial pattern of B. burgdorferi were identified by using a two-stage boosted regression tree model and the model-predicted risks were mapped. During 1986−2020, a total of 2,584 human confirmed cases were reported in 25 provinces. Borrelia burgdorferi was detected from 35 tick species with the highest positive rates in Ixodes granulatus, Hyalomma asiaticum, Ixodes persulcatus, and Haemaphysalis concinna ranging 20.1%−24.0%. Thirteen factors including woodland, NDVI, rainfed cropland, and livestock density were determined as important drivers for the probability of B. burgdorferi occurrence based on the stage 1 model. The stage 2 model identified ten factors including temperature seasonality, NDVI, and grasslands that were the main determinants used to distinguish areas at high or low-medium risk of B. burgdorferi, interpreted as potential occurrence areas within the area projected by the stage 1 model. The projected high-risk areas were not only concentrated in high latitude areas, but also were distributed in middle and low latitude areas. These high-resolution evidence-based risk maps of B. burgdorferi was first created in China and can help as a guide to future surveillance and control and help inform disease burden and infection risk estimates.

Environmental Drivers of Gulf Coast Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) Range Expansion in the United States

In the United States, the Gulf Coast tick (Amblyomma maculatum Koch) is a species of growing medical and veterinary significance, serving as the primary vector of the pathogenic bacterium, Rickettsia parkeri (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae), in humans and the apicomplexan parasite, Hepatozoon americanum, in canines. Ongoing reports of A. maculatum from locations outside its historically reported distribution in the southeastern United States suggest the possibility of current and continuing range expansion. Using an ecological niche modeling approach, we combined new occurrence records with high-resolution climate and land cover data to investigate environmental drivers of the current distribution of A. maculatum in the United States. We found that environmental suitability for A. maculatum varied regionally and was primarily driven by climatic factors such as annual temperature variation and seasonality of precipitation. We also found that presence of A. maculatum was associated with open habitat with minimal canopy cover. Our model predicts large areas beyond the current distribution of A. maculatum to be environmentally suitable, suggesting the possibility of future northward and westward range expansion. These predictions of environmental suitability may be used to identify areas at potential risk for establishment and to guide future surveillance of A. maculatum in the United States.

Large-Scale Sequencing of Borreliaceae for the Construction of Pan-Genomic-Based Diagnostics

The acceleration of climate change has been associated with an alarming increase in the prevalence and geographic range of tick-borne diseases (TBD), many of which have severe and long-lasting effects-particularly when treatment is delayed principally due to inadequate diagnostics and lack of physician suspicion. Moreover, there is a paucity of treatment options for many TBDs that are complicated by diagnostic limitations for correctly identifying the offending pathogens. This review will focus on the biology, disease pathology, and detection methodologies used for the Borreliaceae family which includes the Lyme disease agent Borreliella burgdorferi. Previous work revealed that Borreliaceae genomes differ from most bacteria in that they are composed of large numbers of replicons, both linear and circular, with the main chromosome being the linear with telomeric-like termini. While these findings are novel, additional gene-specific analyses of each class of these multiple replicons are needed to better understand their respective roles in metabolism and pathogenesis of these enigmatic spirochetes. Historically, such studies were challenging due to a dearth of both analytic tools and a sufficient number of high-fidelity genomes among the various taxa within this family as a whole to provide for discriminative and functional genomic studies. Recent advances in long-read whole-genome sequencing, comparative genomics, and machine-learning have provided the tools to better understand the fundamental biology and phylogeny of these genomically-complex pathogens while also providing the data for the development of improved diagnostics and therapeutics.

Risk of tick-borne pathogen spillover into urban yards in New York City

BACKGROUND

The incidence of tick-borne disease has increased dramatically in recent decades, with urban areas increasingly recognized as high-risk environments for exposure to infected ticks. Green spaces may play a key role in facilitating the invasion of ticks, hosts and pathogens into residential areas, particularly where they connect residential yards with larger natural areas (e.g. parks). However, the factors mediating tick distribution across heterogeneous urban landscapes remain poorly characterized.

METHODS

Using generalized linear models in a multimodel inference framework, we determined the residential yard- and local landscape-level features associated with the presence of three tick species of current and growing public health importance in residential yards across Staten Island, a borough of New York City, in the state of New York, USA.

RESULTS

The amount and configuration of canopy cover immediately surrounding residential yards was found to strongly predict the presence of Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum, but not that of Haemaphysalis longicornis. Within yards, we found a protective effect of fencing against I. scapularis and A. americanum, but not against H. longicornis. For all species, the presence of log and brush piles strongly increased the odds of finding ticks in yards.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight a considerable risk of tick exposure in residential yards in Staten Island and identify both yard- and landscape-level features associated with their distribution. In particular, the significance of log and brush piles for all three species supports recommendations for yard management as a means of reducing contact with ticks.

Effect of Land-Use Change on the Changes in Human Lyme Risk in the United States

The spatial extent and incidence of Lyme disease is increasing in the United States, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. Many previous studies have explored the drivers of its spatial pattern, however, few studies tried to explore the drivers for the changes of Lyme disease. We here compared the spatial patterns of changes of human Lyme cases and incidence in the Northeast and Upper Midwest between 2003–2005 and 2015–2017, and applied two different approaches (i.e., a statistical regularization approach and model averaging) to investigate the climatic and landscape factors affecting the risk change between the two periods. Our results suggested that changes in land-use variables generally showed different relationships with changes of human Lyme risk between the two regions. Changes of variables related to human-use areas showed opposite correlations in two regions. Besides, forest area and forest edge density generally negatively correlated with the change of human Lyme risk. In the context of ongoing habitat change, we consider this study may provide new insight into understanding the responses of human Lyme disease to these changes, and contribute to a better prediction in the future.

Development of a Simple Trap That Captures Ticks (Acari) on Their Dorsal Surface

We tested two versions of a trap that captures climbing ticks on their dorsum. A prototype based on a decades old model had three components, a truncated pyramidal base with steep sloping walls, downward facing sticky-tape extending beyond and spanning the boundary of the flat upper surface, on which ticks become dorsally immobilized, and a reservoir for gaseous CO2 emission from dry ice that rests on the flat upper surface. A preoperational trap was made of thermoformed plastic and differed from the prototype by its circular structure, a central depression suitable for future housing of a biotic CO2 generator and supplemental volatile lures and a transparent sticky ceiling that enables ticks to exhibit a phototactic response and allows users to see captured ticks without disturbing the traps. Field testing of the prototype in Florida and both trap types in Oklahoma and North Carolina achieved high catches of lone star ticks, Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae), e.g. mean catches of >70 ticks (adults plus nymphs) in 4 h in both the prototype and preoperational traps in North Carolina, and significantly higher yields of ticks than on dry ice baited 1 m2 white sheets.

Detection of Borrelia miyamotoi and Powassan Virus Lineage II (Deer Tick Virus) from Odocoileus virginianus Harvested Ixodes scapularis in Oklahoma

Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is the primary host of adult Ixodes scapularis (deer tick). Most of the research into I. scapularis has been geographically restricted to the northeastern United States, with limited interest in Oklahoma until recently as the I. scapularis populations spread due to climate change. Ticks serve as a vector for pathogenic bacteria, protozoans, and viruses that pose a significant human health risk. To date, there has been limited research to determine what potential tick-borne pathogens are present in I. scapularis in central Oklahoma. Using a one-step multiplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR, I. scapularis collected from white-tailed deer was screened for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia miyamotoi, Babesia microti, and deer tick virus (DTV). Ticks (n = 394) were pooled by gender and life stage into 117 samples. Three pooled samples were positive for B. miyamotoi and five pooled samples were positive for DTV. This represents a minimum infection rate of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. A. phagocytophilum, B. burgdorferi, and B. microti were not detected in any samples. This is the first report of B. miyamotoi and DTV detection in Oklahoma I. scapularis ticks. This demonstrates that I. scapularis pathogens are present in Oklahoma and that further surveillance of I. scapularis is warranted.

Repellent and acaricidal activities of basil (Ocimum basilicum) essential oils and rock dust against Ixodes scapularis and Dermacentor variabilis ticks

Repellent and acaricidal activity of essential oils extracted from three varieties of basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) were evaluated on blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) and American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis Say) in laboratory conditions. Essential oils were extracted and characterized through gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, and tested at different concentrations for long-term repellent activity using horizontal bioassays. In addition, basil essential oils were combined with an inert material (i.e., granite rock dust) with known insecticidal and miticidal properties to assess acaricidal activities against adult ticks. Among the tested basil varieties, var. Jolina essential oil at 15% vol/vol concentration repelled 96% of tested ticks up to 2 h post-treatment. The EC₅₀ for I. scapularis nymphs was 4.65% vol/vol (95% confidence interval: 4.73-4.57). In acaricidal tests, the combination of essential oil from var. Aroma 2 at 10% wt/wt with rock dust resulted in 100% tick mortality after only 24 h post-exposure, with a LD₅₀ of 3.48% wt/wt (95% CI 4.05-2.91) for freshly prepared treatment tested on I. scapularis adults. The most common compounds detected in basil essential oils by GC-MS were linalool (52.2% in var. Nu Far, 48.2% in Aroma 2, 43.9% in Jolina), sabinene (6.71% in Nu Far, 8.99% in Aroma 2, 8.11% in Jolina), eugenol (11.2% in Jolina, 8.71% in Aroma 2), and estragole (18.2% in Nu Far). The use of essential oils alone and in combination with rock dust provides an innovative and environmentally friendly approach for managing ticks and inhibiting vector-borne disease transmission.

A Geographic Information System Approach to Map Tick Exposure Risk at a Scale for Public Health Intervention

Tick-borne disease control and prevention have been largely ineffective compared to the control of other vector-borne diseases. Although control strategies exist, they are costly or ineffective at large spatial scales. We need tools to target these strategies to places of highest tick exposure risk. Here we present a geographic information system (GIS) method for mapping predicted tick exposure risk at a 200 m by 200 m resolution, appropriate for public health intervention. We followed the approach used to map tick habitat suitability over large areas. We used drag-cloth sampling to measure the density of nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis, Say (Acari: Ixodidae)) at 24 sites in Addison and Rutland Counties, VT, United States. We used a GIS to average habitat, climatological, land-use/land-cover, and abiotic characteristics over 100 m, 400 m, 1,000 m, and 2,000 m buffers around each site to evaluate which characteristic at which buffer size best predicted density of nymphal ticks (DON). The relationships between predictor variables and DON were determined with random forest models. The 100 m buffer model performed best and explained 37.7% of the variation in DON, although was highly accurate at classifying sites as having below or above average DON. This model was applied to Addison County, VT, to predict tick exposure risk at a 200 m resolution. This GIS approach to map predicted DON over a small area with fine resolution, could be used to target public health campaigns and land management practices to reduce human exposure to ticks.

Mapping distributions of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, and spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in Kentucky using passive and active surveillance

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne illness in the United States and is becoming more prevalent each year. It is transmitted to humans and animals through the bites of Ixodes scapularis ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, I. pacificus in the western U.S, and I. ricinus in Europe and Asia. In Kentucky, where Lyme disease is non-endemic, the number of reported human cases in 2010 totaled five. In 2019, that number had increased by over 300%. Identifying the distribution of I. scapularis populations infected with B. burgdorferi is important data for effective prevention strategies and an important first step in monitoring disease spread. In collaboration with the Kentucky Department for Public Health, we performed surveillance for I. scapularis throughout the state of Kentucky using both active and passive surveillance methods. Diagnostic testing for the identification of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) was also conducted. We identified 457 I. scapularis ticks from March 2019 to December 2020 from 32 counties in Kentucky. B. burgdorferi was detected in I. scapularis populations collected from 14 different counties. These results add to the little data that exists in Kentucky on I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi distribution.

Species-Level Profiling of Ixodes pacificus Bacterial Microbiomes Reveals High Variability Across Short Spatial Scales at Different Taxonomic Resolutions

Background and Aims: Outbreaks of severe and chronic tick-borne diseases (TBDs) are on the rise. This is through the transmission of infectious disease agents to humans during tick feeding. The transmission rate and extent of microbial exchange, however, vary based on the tick microbiome composition. While select microbes are determined to be members of the normal tick microbiome and others are clearly recognized mammalian and/or avian pathogens, the status of many other members of the tick microbiota with respect to human and alternate host pathogenesis remains unclear. Moreover, the species-level 16S microbiome of prominent TBD vectors, including Ixodes pacificus, have not been extensively studied. To elucidate the I. pacificus microbiome composition, we performed a pan-domain species-specific characterization of the bacterial microbiome on adult I. pacificus ticks collected from two regional parks within Western California. Our methods provide for characterizing nuances within cohort microbiomes and their relationships to geo-locale of origin, surrounding fauna, and prevalences of known and suspected pathogens in relation to current TBD epidemiological zones. Methods: Ninety-two adult I. pacificus bacterial microbiomes were characterized using a high-fidelity, pan-domain, species-specific, full-length 16S rRNA amplification method using circular consensus sequencing performed on the Pacific Biosciences Sequel platform. Data analyses were performed with the MCSMRT data analysis package and database. Results: The species-specific I. pacificus microbiome composition illustrates a complex assortment of microflora, including over 900 eubacterial species with high taxonomic diversity, which was revealed to vary by sex and geo-locale, though the use of full-length 16S gene sequencing. The TBD-associated pathogens, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Rickettsia monacensis, were identified along with a host of bacteria previously unassociated with ticks. Conclusion: Species-level taxonomic classification of the I. pacificus microbiome revealed that full-length bacterial 16S gene sequencing is required for the granularity to elucidate the microbial diversity within and among ticks based on geo-locale.